Time For A Horse Or Two To Move Out Of The Pack
This is the time of year where the eventual Super Bowl participants begin to kick it up a notch. It doesn’t happen every season; for instance, we knew that New Orleans and Indianapolis were the class of the NFL last year from the second or third week. However, in most seasons, somewhere around games five thru seven, a couple of teams begin to separate from the pack. You don’t always realize it until the last quarter of the season. A 3-3 team will go 5-1 to move to 8-4. That team may still trail two or three teams in their conference. While everybody else looks at the 10-2 teams, it is really the hot 8-4 team that is primed to win in the playoffs.
Which AFC teams appear to be peaking at this time? The Jets, Steelers, Patriots, and Ravens are not peaking. The Jets could turn out to be a great team that is going to “wire the field,” but we see two teams that look to be decent fits for this pattern. Both happen to be in the same division. The Indianapolis Colts may not be close to last year’s team in talent, but they are starting to play like a playoff winner. The Tennessee Titans better fit this pattern. They look like a team that could run off five or six wins in a row, after winning three in a row in impressive fashion.
Stranger things have happened in the past, so we must look at the Browns and Raiders at this point. Both pulled off impressive victories on the road last week. We are not saying they will run off five more in succession, but we must take a hard look at their games this week.
In the NFC, the New York Giants clearly exhibit the pattern we are looking for. The Seattle Seahawks are the other team to monitor for this possible scenario. We think there is still going to be one other team that will break out from the pack in the next two weeks and begin to look like a playoff winner. Philadelphia could be that team.
Beans On Bowl
This is the week for the annual game across the pond. When San Francisco and Denver face off in London this weekend, it could set back global football relations for years. Could we see a coaching dismissal made some point over the Atlantic Ocean on the return flight? Even the blokes in Jolly Ole’ England know when somebody is trying to pull a fast one over them on the football field.
| Current Regular Season NFL PiRate Ratings | |||||||
|
PiRate | Mean | Biased | W-L-T | PPG | Opp | |
| New York Giants | 104.0 | 103.7 | 105.7 | 5-2-0 | 25.0 | 21.9 | |
| Philadelphia | 102.9 | 102.0 | 102.1 | 4-3-0 | 24.6 | 22.4 | |
| Dallas | 101.9 | 100.2 | 98.0 | 1-5-0 | 22.8 | 25.3 | |
| Washington | 99.4 | 100.5 | 100.5 | 4-3-0 | 18.6 | 19.0 | |
| NFC North | PiRate | Mean | Biased | W-L-T | Pts | Opp | |
| Green Bay | 102.8 | 102.9 | 103.5 | 4-3-0 | 23.9 | 19.4 | |
| Minnesota | 102.7 | 101.2 | 100.1 | 2-4-0 | 18.5 | 19.3 | |
| Chicago | 98.1 | 100.0 | 99.0 | 4-3-0 | 18.0 | 16.3 | |
| Detroit | 96.5 | 98.4 | 95.3 | 1-5-0 | 24.3 | 23.3 | |
| NFC South | PiRate | Mean | Biased | W-L-T | Pts | Opp | |
| Atlanta | 103.8 | 103.3 | 104.4 | 5-2-0 | 24.1 | 19.0 | |
| New Orleans | 101.4 | 99.9 | 101.4 | 4-3-0 | 21.0 | 19.7 | |
| Carolina | 97.6 | 92.4 | 93.1 | 1-5-0 | 12.5 | 21.7 | |
| Tampa Bay | 92.9 | 95.4 | 97.6 | 4-2-0 | 16.3 | 21.3 | |
| NFC West | PiRate | Mean | Biased | W-L-T | Pts | Opp | |
| Seattle | 98.4 | 98.5 | 100.5 | 4-2-0 | 20.0 | 17.8 | |
| San Francisco | 96.6 | 94.7 | 92.8 | 1-6-0 | 16.1 | 23.1 | |
| St. Louis | 94.3 | 96.5 | 96.3 | 3-4-0 | 17.1 | 18.7 | |
| Arizona | 93.0 | 95.6 | 95.3 | 3-3-0 | 16.3 | 26.7 | |
| AFC East | PiRate | Mean | Biased | W-L-T | Pts | Opp | |
| NY Jets | 110.4 | 107.4 | 109.5 | 5-1-0 | 26.5 | 16.8 | |
| New England | 106.6 | 105.7 | 106.6 | 5-1-0 | 29.5 | 22.7 | |
| Miami | 101.3 | 100.2 | 102.0 | 3-3-0 | 18.5 | 22.5 | |
| Buffalo | 92.7 | 91.9 | 90.9 | 0-6-0 | 20.2 | 33.0 | |
| AFC North | PiRate | Mean | Biased | W-L-T | Pts | Opp | |
| Pittsburgh | 105.5 | 107.6 | 107.4 | 5-1-0 | 22.8 | 13.7 | |
| Baltimore | 105.4 | 104.0 | 104.8 | 5-2-0 | 21.3 | 18.4 | |
| Cincinnati | 100.3 | 98.8 | 99.2 | 2-4-0 | 22.0 | 23.7 | |
| Cleveland | 98.4 | 97.9 | 96.2 | 2-5-0 | 16.9 | 20.3 | |
| AFC South | PiRate | Mean | Biased | W-L-T | Pts | Opp | |
| Tennessee | 105.3 | 107.9 | 106.8 | 5-2-0 | 28.4 | 16.7 | |
| Indianapolis | 105.1 | 105.0 | 105.6 | 4-2-0 | 27.2 | 20.8 | |
| Houston | 100.3 | 99.6 | 101.1 | 4-2-0 | 25.5 | 27.8 | |
| Jacksonville | 90.8 | 92.6 | 91.8 | 3-4-0 | 18.6 | 29.9 | |
| AFC West | PiRate | Mean | Biased | W-L-T | Pts | Opp | |
| Kansas City | 101.3 | 101.5 | 102.3 | 4-2-0 | 25.0 | 18.7 | |
| San Diego | 99.7 | 100.4 | 98.2 | 2-5-0 | 25.3 | 21.3 | |
| Oakland | 97.0 | 98.2 | 97.8 | 3-4-0 | 25.6 | 23.6 | |
| Denver | 94.0 | 96.0 | 94.3 | 2-5-0 | 19.7 | 28.4 | |
| This Week’s Games | ||||||
| Home Team in CAPS | (N) Denotes Neutral Site | |||||
| Week 8: October 31-November 1, 2010 | ||||||
| Vegas Line as of 3:30 PM EDT Tuesday | ||||||
| Favorite | Underdog | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Vegas | Totals |
| San Francisco | Denver (London) | 2.6 | -1.3 | -1.5 | Pk | 42 |
| DALLAS | Jacksonville | 13.1 | 9.6 | 8.2 | 6 1/2 | 42 1/2 |
| DETROIT | Washington | 0.1 | 0.9 | -2.2 | 2 1/2 | 44 |
| NEW YORK JETS | Green Bay | 9.6 | 6.5 | 8.0 | 6 | 42 |
| Carolina | ST. LOUIS | 0.3 | -7.1 | -6.2 | 3 | 37 |
| CINCINNATI | Miami | 1.0 | 0.6 | -0.8 | 2 | 43 1/2 |
| KANSAS CITY | Buffalo | 11.6 | 12.6 | 14.4 | 7 1/2 | 44 1/2 |
| Tennessee | SAN DIEGO | 1.6 | 3.5 | 4.6 | -4 | 44 |
| ARIZONA | Tampa Bay | 2.1 | 2.2 | -0.3 | 3 | 39 1/2 |
| OAKLAND | Seattle | 0.6 | 1.7 | -0.7 | 2 1/2 | 42 |
| NEW ENGLAND | Minnesota | 7.9 | 8.5 | 10.5 | 6 | 42 1/2 |
| Pittsburgh | NEW ORLEANS | 1.1 | 4.7 | 3.0 | -1 | 44 1/2 |
| INDIANAPOLIS | Houston | 7.8 | 8.4 | 7.5 | 5 1/2 | 49 1/2 |
PiRate QB Passer Ratings
| Player | Team | AYPA | Int % | PiRate # |
| Michael Vick | PHI | 6.7 | 0.00 | 121.5 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | PIT | 8.8 | 1.85 | 117.0 |
| Peyton Manning | IND | 6.9 | 0.79 | 115.7 |
| Kyle Orton | DEN | 6.3 | 1.45 | 106.5 |
| Mark Sanchez | NYJ | 5.1 | 1.13 | 102.6 |
| Phillip Rivers | SD | 6.7 | 2.22 | 102.0 |
| Josh Freeman | TB | 5.0 | 1.51 | 98.7 |
| Matt Cassel | KC | 5.5 | 1.96 | 97.5 |
| Vince Young | TEN | 5.4 | 1.98 | 96.8 |
| Seneca Wallace | CLE | 5.4 | 2.00 | 96.6 |
| Matt Ryan | ATL | 5.3 | 1.98 | 96.2 |
| Tom Brady | NE | 5.3 | 2.02 | 95.9 |
| Matt Schaub | HOU | 5.7 | 2.54 | 93.6 |
| Chad Henne | MIA | 5.4 | 2.42 | 93.0 |
| Carson Palmer | CIN | 5.3 | 2.46 | 92.0 |
| Joe Flacco | BAL | 5.3 | 2.54 | 91.3 |
| Kevin Kolb | PHI | 4.9 | 2.61 | 88.4 |
| Donovan McNabb | WAS | 5.1 | 2.83 | 87.6 |
| Tony Romo | DAL | 5.7 | 3.29 | 87.0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | BUF | 5.4 | 3.13 | 86.7 |
| Drew Brees | NO | 5.1 | 3.48 | 81.9 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | SEA | 4.1 | 2.94 | 81.1 |
| Aaron Rodgers | GB | 5.4 | 3.83 | 80.5 |
| Shaun Hill | DET | 4.4 | 3.37 | 79.0 |
| Sam Bradford | STL | 3.7 | 3.08 | 77.6 |
| Jay Cutler | CHI | 4.8 | 3.87 | 76.8 |
| Alex Smith | SF | 4.2 | 3.72 | 74.8 |
| Kerry Collins | TEN | 4.8 | 4.17 | 74.2 |
| Bruce Gradkowski | OAK | 4.3 | 3.92 | 73.6 |
| Jason Campbell | OAK | 3.6 | 3.60 | 72.4 |
| Eli Manning | NYG | 4.8 | 4.60 | 70.4 |
| Jimmy Clausen | CAR | 2.6 | 3.30 | 69.5 |
| Derek Anderson | ARI | 3.2 | 3.82 | 68.3 |
| David Garrard | JAX | 3.2 | 5.47 | 53.8 |
| Brett Favre | MIN | 3.3 | 5.59 | 53.3 |
| Charlie Batch | PIT | 3.7 | 6.12 | 50.8 |
| Trent Edwards | JAX | 1.4 | 5.26 | 45.5 |
| Max Hall | ARI | 0.9 | 5.08 | 44.3 |
| Matt Moore | CAR | 2.5 | 7.00 | 36.4 |
AYPA is Air Yards Per Pass Attempt. It is the average pass yardage per attempt minus yards after catch. This statistic is available at advancednflstats.com.
The Pi-Rate Ratings 