The Pi-Rate Ratings

October 26, 2010

PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 8–October 31- November 1, 2010

Time For A Horse Or Two To Move Out Of The Pack 

This is the time of year where the eventual Super Bowl participants begin to kick it up a notch.  It doesn’t happen every season; for instance, we knew that New Orleans and Indianapolis were the class of the NFL last year from the second or third week.  However, in most seasons, somewhere around games five thru seven, a couple of teams begin to separate from the pack.  You don’t always realize it until the last quarter of the season.  A 3-3 team will go 5-1 to move to 8-4.  That team may still trail two or three teams in their conference.  While everybody else looks at the 10-2 teams, it is really the hot 8-4 team that is primed to win in the playoffs.

Which AFC teams appear to be peaking at this time?  The Jets, Steelers, Patriots, and Ravens are not peaking.  The Jets could turn out to be a great team that is going to “wire the field,” but we see two teams that look to be decent fits for this pattern.  Both happen to be in the same division.  The Indianapolis Colts may not be close to last year’s team in talent, but they are starting to play like a playoff winner.  The Tennessee Titans better fit this pattern.  They look like a team that could run off five or six wins in a row, after winning three in a row in impressive fashion.

Stranger things have happened in the past, so we must look at the Browns and Raiders at this point.  Both pulled off impressive victories on the road last week.  We are not saying they will run off five more in succession, but we must take a hard look at their games this week. 

In the NFC, the New York Giants clearly exhibit the pattern we are looking for.  The Seattle Seahawks are the other team to monitor for this possible scenario.  We think there is still going to be one other team that will break out from the pack in the next two weeks and begin to look like a playoff winner.  Philadelphia could be that team.

Beans On Bowl

This is the week for the annual game across the pond.  When San Francisco and Denver face off in London this weekend, it could set back global football relations for years.  Could we see a coaching dismissal made some point over the Atlantic Ocean on the return flight?  Even the blokes in Jolly Ole’ England know when somebody is trying to pull a fast one over them on the football field.

Current Regular Season NFL PiRate Ratings
   
NFC East
PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T PPG Opp
New York Giants 104.0 103.7 105.7 5-2-0 25.0 21.9
Philadelphia 102.9 102.0 102.1 4-3-0 24.6 22.4
Dallas 101.9 100.2 98.0 1-5-0 22.8 25.3
Washington 99.4 100.5 100.5 4-3-0 18.6 19.0
NFC North PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Green Bay 102.8 102.9 103.5 4-3-0 23.9 19.4
Minnesota 102.7 101.2 100.1 2-4-0 18.5 19.3
Chicago 98.1 100.0 99.0 4-3-0 18.0 16.3
Detroit 96.5 98.4 95.3 1-5-0 24.3 23.3
NFC South PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Atlanta 103.8 103.3 104.4 5-2-0 24.1 19.0
New Orleans 101.4 99.9 101.4 4-3-0 21.0 19.7
Carolina 97.6 92.4 93.1 1-5-0 12.5 21.7
Tampa Bay 92.9 95.4 97.6 4-2-0 16.3 21.3
NFC West PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Seattle 98.4 98.5 100.5 4-2-0 20.0 17.8
San Francisco 96.6 94.7 92.8 1-6-0 16.1 23.1
St. Louis 94.3 96.5 96.3 3-4-0 17.1 18.7
Arizona 93.0 95.6 95.3 3-3-0 16.3 26.7
AFC East PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
NY Jets 110.4 107.4 109.5 5-1-0 26.5 16.8
New England 106.6 105.7 106.6 5-1-0 29.5 22.7
Miami 101.3 100.2 102.0 3-3-0 18.5 22.5
Buffalo 92.7 91.9 90.9 0-6-0 20.2 33.0
AFC North PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Pittsburgh 105.5 107.6 107.4 5-1-0 22.8 13.7
Baltimore 105.4 104.0 104.8 5-2-0 21.3 18.4
Cincinnati 100.3 98.8 99.2 2-4-0 22.0 23.7
Cleveland 98.4 97.9 96.2 2-5-0 16.9 20.3
AFC South PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Tennessee 105.3 107.9 106.8 5-2-0 28.4 16.7
Indianapolis 105.1 105.0 105.6 4-2-0 27.2 20.8
Houston 100.3 99.6 101.1 4-2-0 25.5 27.8
Jacksonville 90.8 92.6 91.8 3-4-0 18.6 29.9
AFC West PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Kansas City 101.3 101.5 102.3 4-2-0 25.0 18.7
San Diego 99.7 100.4 98.2 2-5-0 25.3 21.3
Oakland 97.0 98.2 97.8 3-4-0 25.6 23.6
Denver 94.0 96.0 94.3 2-5-0 19.7 28.4
This Week’s Games
Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site        
             
Week 8: October 31-November 1, 2010          
Vegas Line as of 3:30 PM EDT Tuesday          
             
Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vegas Totals
San Francisco Denver  (London) 2.6 -1.3 -1.5 Pk 42   
DALLAS Jacksonville 13.1 9.6 8.2 6 1/2 42 1/2
DETROIT Washington 0.1 0.9 -2.2 2 1/2 44   
NEW YORK JETS Green Bay 9.6 6.5 8.0 6    42   
Carolina ST. LOUIS 0.3 -7.1 -6.2 3    37   
CINCINNATI Miami 1.0 0.6 -0.8 2    43 1/2
KANSAS CITY Buffalo 11.6 12.6 14.4 7 1/2 44 1/2
Tennessee SAN DIEGO 1.6 3.5 4.6 -4    44   
ARIZONA Tampa Bay 2.1 2.2 -0.3 3    39 1/2
OAKLAND Seattle 0.6 1.7 -0.7 2 1/2 42   
NEW ENGLAND Minnesota 7.9 8.5 10.5 6    42 1/2
Pittsburgh NEW ORLEANS 1.1 4.7 3.0 -1    44 1/2
INDIANAPOLIS Houston 7.8 8.4 7.5 5 1/2 49 1/2

 

PiRate QB Passer Ratings

Player Team AYPA Int % PiRate #
Michael Vick PHI 6.7 0.00 121.5
Ben Roethlisberger PIT 8.8 1.85 117.0
Peyton Manning IND 6.9 0.79 115.7
Kyle Orton DEN 6.3 1.45 106.5
Mark Sanchez NYJ 5.1 1.13 102.6
Phillip Rivers SD 6.7 2.22 102.0
Josh Freeman TB 5.0 1.51 98.7
Matt Cassel KC 5.5 1.96 97.5
Vince Young TEN 5.4 1.98 96.8
Seneca Wallace CLE 5.4 2.00 96.6
Matt Ryan ATL 5.3 1.98 96.2
Tom Brady NE 5.3 2.02 95.9
Matt Schaub HOU 5.7 2.54 93.6
Chad Henne MIA 5.4 2.42 93.0
Carson Palmer CIN 5.3 2.46 92.0
Joe Flacco BAL 5.3 2.54 91.3
Kevin Kolb PHI 4.9 2.61 88.4
Donovan McNabb WAS 5.1 2.83 87.6
Tony Romo DAL 5.7 3.29 87.0
Ryan Fitzpatrick BUF 5.4 3.13 86.7
Drew Brees NO 5.1 3.48 81.9
Matt Hasselbeck SEA 4.1 2.94 81.1
Aaron Rodgers GB 5.4 3.83 80.5
Shaun Hill DET 4.4 3.37 79.0
Sam Bradford STL 3.7 3.08 77.6
Jay Cutler CHI 4.8 3.87 76.8
Alex Smith SF 4.2 3.72 74.8
Kerry Collins TEN 4.8 4.17 74.2
Bruce Gradkowski OAK 4.3 3.92 73.6
Jason Campbell OAK 3.6 3.60 72.4
Eli Manning NYG 4.8 4.60 70.4
Jimmy Clausen CAR 2.6 3.30 69.5
Derek Anderson ARI 3.2 3.82 68.3
David Garrard JAX 3.2 5.47 53.8
Brett Favre MIN 3.3 5.59 53.3
Charlie Batch PIT 3.7 6.12 50.8
Trent Edwards JAX 1.4 5.26 45.5
Max Hall ARI 0.9 5.08 44.3
Matt Moore CAR 2.5 7.00 36.4

AYPA is Air Yards Per Pass Attempt.  It is the average pass yardage per attempt minus yards after catch.  This statistic is available at advancednflstats.com.

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