A PiRate Look at the Playoff Chase
Parity, shmarity! 12 and only 12 teams will make the playoffs, and 20 teams will not regardless of how close the 32 teams might be in talent. How do we look for the playoff teams?
We wish we could tell you we have a great formula like we have for picking the NCAA Basketball Tournament. If you want to read about that, click on the College Basketball link on the right side of the page and read up on how successful our tournament formula has been in the past.
The only tell-tale sign in back-testing that is worth a grain of salt is scoring margin. Teams with scoring margins over 10 points per game have historically dominated in the playoffs. At this point of the season, it is too early to use scoring margin due to a small sampling of games. After 16 games, the strengths of schedule differ much less, but after six games, the margin is too much.
Let’s try to look at the divisions strictly by how well the teams appear to be playing.
NFC East
Dallas can forget hosting the Super Bowl. They won’t make the playoffs this season. The Giants and Eagles have yet to play each other, but we feel like Philadelphia is a little better at this point and believe the Eagles will soar above the rest in the East. New York will stay in the playoff race. Washington looks like an 8-8 team.
NFC North
Green Bay’s injury problems have left this division race open for three teams. Minnesota should begin to play better offensively as Randy Moss gets more and more acclimated to his old digs. Chicago appears to be lacking the offensive line strength to win 10 games. The Bears could be 9-7 or 8-8, and we think 9-7 will not be enough to qualify as a Wildcard. As for the Packers, it is going to be tough relying strictly on the passing game when the weather turns frigid. We think Minnesota will win the North with a 10-6 record.
NFC South
As soon as Tampa Bay proves to be unworthy of playoff mention, this will become a two-team race between Atlanta and New Orleans. They could finish in a tie, with the tiebreaker loser gaining a Wildcard spot. We think both could finish 11-5.
NFC West
It has never happened before, but there is a chance it could happen this year. No division winner has ever been 8-8 or worse, but it could happen in this division. Arizona and San Francisco have little on offense, while Seattle and St. Louis have so much young and inconsistent talent. If we had to pick one team to go 9-7, it would be Pete Carroll’s Seahawks.
AFC East
With Buffalo primed to go 2-14 or worse and probably go 0-6 in division play, it allows the other three teams to clean up in the standings. The Jets look like the class of the league at this point of the season, but they are not dominant yet. New England is solid, while Miami has enough talent to stay in the playoff picture. We will call for the Jets to win the division at 12-4 or 13-3 with the Patriots in the Wildcard picture at 11-5 or 12-4. As for Miami, the Dolphins will stay in the hunt for most of the season before settling in at 9-7.
AFC North
Pittsburgh and Baltimore are as strong collectively as the Jets and Patriots. We feel strongly that both teams will make the playoffs with records in the 12-4 range. Cincinnati is going to struggle to finish at 8-8, while Cleveland will lose double digit games again.
AFC South
With the East and North both having two very good teams, there won’t be room for a Wildcard in this division. Three teams sit tied at 4-2. Houston’s defense will cost them a game or two down the stretch. Tennessee and Indianapolis should decide this division in their head-to-head matchups. We will go with the great Peyton Manning to pull off two close wins and give the Colts another division title at 11-5. Jacksonville will more than likely be shopping for a new coach. They should be shopping for a new city. The Los Angeles Jaguars has a nice ring to it.
AFC West
San Diego cannot win on the road, and the last time we checked, they have eight road games. Denver has not started on fire this year and will not be 6-2 at the halfway point before they collapse in the second half. Oakland is still a dozen quality players short, while Kansas City has shown just enough to lead this division. We think the Chiefs could pull this off at 9-7.
Our playoff Soothsayer sees this scenario:
NFC
1. Philadelphia
2. New Orleans
3. Minnesota
4. Seattle
W. Atlanta
W. New York Giants
AFC
1. New York Jets
2. Pittsburgh
3. Indianapolis
4. Kansas City
W. New England
W. Baltimore
Wildcard Round
New York Giants at Minnesota
Atlanta at Seattle
Baltimore at Indianapolis
New England at Kansas City
Divisional Round
Minnesota at Philadelphia
Seattle at New Orleans
Indianapolis at Pittsburgh
New England at New York Jets
Conference Championship
New Orleans at Philadelphia
Pittsburgh at New York Jets
SUPER BOWL
Philadelphia vs. Pittsburgh
Winner: The Commonwealth of Pennsylvania
This Week’s PiRate Passer Ratings
Player | Team | Comp% | Int % | AYPA | PiRate # |
Michael Vick | PHI | 61.5 | 0.00 | 6.7 | 121.5 |
Peyton Manning | IND | 67.3 | 0.79 | 6.9 | 115.7 |
Kyle Orton | DEN | 62.8 | 1.21 | 6.7 | 110.8 |
Phillip Rivers | SD | 62.3 | 2.27 | 7 | 103.2 |
Mark Sanchez | NYJ | 55.4 | 1.13 | 5.1 | 102.6 |
Kevin Kolb | PHI | 67.6 | 1.90 | 5.8 | 99.7 |
Jay Cutler | CHI | 60.3 | 2.13 | 5.7 | 97.2 |
Vince Young | TEN | 61.4 | 1.98 | 5.4 | 96.8 |
Seneca Wallace | CLE | 63.0 | 2.00 | 5.4 | 96.6 |
Josh Freeman | TB | 59.1 | 1.89 | 5.1 | 96.0 |
Matt Ryan | ATL | 60.3 | 1.83 | 5 | 95.9 |
Tom Brady | NE | 67.5 | 2.41 | 5.6 | 94.2 |
Donovan McNabb | WAS | 58.1 | 2.33 | 5.4 | 93.8 |
Matt Schaub | HOU | 64.5 | 2.54 | 5.7 | 93.6 |
Drew Brees | NO | 70.6 | 2.60 | 5.7 | 93.1 |
Matt Cassel | KC | 57.8 | 2.22 | 4.9 | 91.9 |
Ryan Fitzpatrick | BUF | 61.2 | 2.35 | 4.9 | 90.7 |
Chad Henne | MIA | 63.2 | 2.92 | 5.1 | 86.8 |
Joe Flacco | BAL | 60.5 | 2.93 | 5.1 | 86.8 |
Tony Romo | DAL | 69.4 | 3.40 | 5.7 | 86.0 |
Carson Palmer | CIN | 59.3 | 3.09 | 4.8 | 83.7 |
Aaron Rodgers | GB | 64.2 | 3.48 | 5.3 | 83.0 |
Shaun Hill | DET | 61.1 | 3.37 | 4.4 | 79.0 |
Eli Manning | NYG | 64.7 | 3.92 | 4.9 | 76.9 |
Matt Hasselbeck | SEA | 61.4 | 3.61 | 4.2 | 75.7 |
Sam Bradford | STL | 56.8 | 3.42 | 3.6 | 74.1 |
Bruce Gradkowski | OAK | 52.0 | 3.92 | 4.3 | 73.6 |
Alex Smith | SF | 60.1 | 4.04 | 4.1 | 71.4 |
Jimmie Clausen | CAR | 47.3 | 3.30 | 2.6 | 69.5 |
Brett Favre | MIN | 58.7 | 4.67 | 3.5 | 62.5 |
Derek Anderson | ARI | 51.8 | 4.39 | 2.8 | 61.1 |
Jason Campbell | OAK | 56.0 | 4.40 | 2.6 | 59.9 |
David Garrard | JAX | 65.6 | 5.47 | 3.2 | 53.8 |
Charlie Batch | PIT | 59.2 | 6.12 | 3.7 | 50.8 |
Trent Edwards | JAX | 56.6 | 5.26 | 1.4 | 45.5 |
Jake Delhomme | CLE | 55.0 | 6.67 | 2.2 | 37.7 |
Matt Moore | CAR | 42.4 | 10.17 | 0.2 | -4.4 |
The PiRate Passer Formula is: ((7* AYPA) – (11* Int.%)) +105] * 0.8
AYPA is Air Yards Per Pass Attempt or Passing Yards minus Yards After Catch.
This statistic is available at advancednflstats.com
This Week’s NFL PiRate Ratings
NFC East |
PiRate | Mean | Biased | W-L-T | PPG | Opp | |
Philadelphia Eagles | 105.0 | 103.2 | 104.9 | 4-2-0 | 28.2 | 20.0 | |
Dallas Cowboys | 103.1 | 101.1 | 99.9 | 1-4-0 | 20.4 | 22.2 | |
New York Giants | 102.8 | 102.9 | 103.2 | 4-2-0 | 22.3 | 19.7 | |
Washington Redskins | 98.6 | 100.1 | 98.2 | 3-3-0 | 18.8 | 19.8 | |
NFC North | PiRate | Mean | Biased | W-L-T | Pts | Opp | |
Minnesota Vikings | 103.1 | 102.0 | 100.7 | 2-3-0 | 17.4 | 17.6 | |
Green Bay Packers | 102.4 | 102.6 | 100.7 | 3-3-0 | 23.2 | 18.7 | |
Chicago Bears | 98.9 | 100.1 | 99.5 | 4-2-0 | 18.7 | 16.2 | |
Detroit Lions | 96.5 | 98.6 | 93.9 | 1-5-0 | 24.3 | 23.3 | |
NFC South | PiRate | Mean | Biased | W-L-T | Pts | Opp | |
New Orleans Saints | 104.6 | 102.4 | 104.1 | 4-2-0 | 21.7 | 18.0 | |
Atlanta Falcons | 103.6 | 103.6 | 102.3 | 4-2-0 | 21.7 | 16.8 | |
Carolina Panthers | 97.1 | 92.2 | 89.8 | 0-5-0 | 10.4 | 22.0 | |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 92.6 | 95.4 | 96.7 | 3-2-0 | 16.0 | 22.2 | |
NFC West | PiRate | Mean | Biased | W-L-T | Pts | Opp | |
Seattle Seahawks | 97.4 | 97.3 | 98.6 | 3-2-0 | 19.6 | 19.4 | |
San Francisco 49ers | 97.1 | 95.6 | 95.8 | 1-5-0 | 16.3 | 23.2 | |
St. Louis Rams | 94.6 | 95.2 | 97.1 | 3-3-0 | 17.2 | 18.8 | |
Arizona Cardinals | 94.0 | 96.9 | 97.3 | 3-2-0 | 17.6 | 27.6 | |
AFC East | PiRate | Mean | Biased | W-L-T | Pts | Opp | |
New York Jets | 110.4 | 108.1 | 109.4 | 5-1-0 | 26.5 | 16.8 | |
New England Patriots | 106.4 | 106.1 | 107.0 | 4-1-0 | 30.8 | 23.2 | |
Miami Dolphins | 101.4 | 99.4 | 101.7 | 3-2-0 | 17.8 | 22.4 | |
Buffalo Bills | 91.6 | 90.5 | 88.9 | 0-5-0 | 17.4 | 32.6 | |
AFC North | PiRate | Mean | Biased | W-L-T | Pts | Opp | |
Baltimore Ravens | 106.5 | 106.0 | 107.6 | 4-2-0 | 18.7 | 15.8 | |
Pittsburgh Steelers | 105.4 | 107.9 | 106.6 | 4-1-0 | 22.8 | 12.0 | |
Cincinnati Bengals | 100.5 | 99.0 | 99.0 | 2-3-0 | 20.0 | 20.4 | |
Cleveland Browns | 95.2 | 95.8 | 94.9 | 1-5-0 | 14.7 | 20.8 | |
AFC South | PiRate | Mean | Biased | W-L-T | Pts | Opp | |
Indianapolis Colts | 105.1 | 105.5 | 105.4 | 4-2-0 | 27.2 | 20.8 | |
Tennessee Titans | 103.2 | 107.0 | 105.3 | 4-2-0 | 27.0 | 16.3 | |
Houston Texans | 100.3 | 98.7 | 102.5 | 4-2-0 | 25.5 | 27.8 | |
Jacksonville Jaguars | 92.5 | 93.9 | 97.6 | 3-3-0 | 18.3 | 27.8 | |
AFC West | PiRate | Mean | Biased | W-L-T | Pts | Opp | |
San Diego Chargers | 99.9 | 99.6 | 100.2 | 2-4-0 | 26.2 | 21.0 | |
Kansas City Chiefs | 99.6 | 99.6 | 100.7 | 3-2-0 | 21.6 | 18.4 | |
Denver Broncos | 97.6 | 99.6 | 97.3 | 2-4-0 | 20.7 | 23.3 | |
Oakland Raiders | 93.4 | 94.1 | 93.0 | 2-4-0 | 20.0 | 25.2 |
This Week’s PiRate, Mean, and Biased Spreads
This Week’s Games | ||||||
Home Team in CAPS | (N) Denotes Neutral Site | |||||
Week 7: October 24-25, 2010 | ||||||
Vegas Line as of 3:30 PM EDT Tuesday | ||||||
Favorite | Underdog | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Vegas | Totals |
Pittsburgh | MIAMI | 2.0 | 6.5 | 2.9 | 3 | 40 ½ |
ATLANTA | Cincinnati | 6.1 | 7.6 | 6.3 | 3 1/2 | 43 |
KANSAS CITY | Jacksonville | 10.1 | 8.7 | 6.1 | 4 1/2 | 43 |
TENNESSEE | Philadelphia | 1.2 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 3 | 44 |
CHICAGO | Washington | 3.3 | 3.0 | 4.3 | 3 | 40 |
NEW ORLEANS | Cleveland | 12.4 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 13 | 43 |
BALTIMORE | Buffalo | 17.9 | 18.5 | 21.7 | 13 | 38 |
CAROLINA | San Francisco | 2.0 | -1.4 | -4.0 | -3 | 35 |
TAMPA BAY | St. Louis | 0.0 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 3 | 38 ½ |
SEATTLE | Arizona | 5.4 | 2.4 | 3.3 | 5 1/2 | 40 ½ |
New England | SAN DIEGO | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.8 | -3 | 47 |
DENVER | Oakland | 7.2 | 8.5 | 7.3 | 7 | 42 ½ |
GREEN BAY | Minnesota | 2.3 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 2 1/2 | 44 ½ |
DALLAS | New York Giants | 2.3 | 0.2 | -1.3 | 3 1/2 | 44 ½ |
I loved up to you will receive performed right here. The cartoon is tasteful, your authored subject matter stylish. nonetheless, you command get bought an shakiness over that you wish be handing over the following. in poor health definitely come further until now again as precisely the same just about very regularly inside case you shield this hike.
Comment by Malvarina Italia Assasi — October 19, 2011 @ 12:28 am