The Pi-Rate Ratings

October 19, 2010

PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 7–October 24-25, 2010

A PiRate Look at the Playoff Chase

Parity, shmarity!  12 and only 12 teams will make the playoffs, and 20 teams will not regardless of how close the 32 teams might be in talent.  How do we look for the playoff teams? 

We wish we could tell you we have a great formula like we have for picking the NCAA Basketball Tournament.  If you want to read about that, click on the College Basketball link on the right side of the page and read up on how successful our tournament formula has been in the past. 

The only tell-tale sign in back-testing that is worth a grain of salt is scoring margin.  Teams with scoring margins over 10 points per game have historically dominated in the playoffs.  At this point of the season, it is too early to use scoring margin due to a small sampling of games.  After 16 games, the strengths of schedule differ much less, but after six games, the margin is too much.

 

Let’s try to look at the divisions strictly by how well the teams appear to be playing. 

NFC East

 

Dallas can forget hosting the Super Bowl.  They won’t make the playoffs this season.  The Giants and Eagles have yet to play each other, but we feel like Philadelphia is a little better at this point and believe the Eagles will soar above the rest in the East.  New York will stay in the playoff race.  Washington looks like an 8-8 team. 

NFC North

 

Green Bay’s injury problems have left this division race open for three teams.  Minnesota should begin to play better offensively as Randy Moss gets more and more acclimated to his old digs.  Chicago appears to be lacking the offensive line strength to win 10 games.  The Bears could be 9-7 or 8-8, and we think 9-7 will not be enough to qualify as a Wildcard.  As for the Packers, it is going to be tough relying strictly on the passing game when the weather turns frigid.  We think Minnesota will win the North with a 10-6 record. 

NFC South

 

As soon as Tampa Bay proves to be unworthy of playoff mention, this will become a two-team race between Atlanta and New Orleans.  They could finish in a tie, with the tiebreaker loser gaining a Wildcard spot.  We think both could finish 11-5. 

NFC West

 

It has never happened before, but there is a chance it could happen this year.  No division winner has ever been 8-8 or worse, but it could happen in this division.  Arizona and San Francisco have little on offense, while Seattle and St. Louis have so much young and inconsistent talent.  If we had to pick one team to go 9-7, it would be Pete Carroll’s Seahawks. 

AFC East

 

With Buffalo primed to go 2-14 or worse and probably go 0-6 in division play, it allows the other three teams to clean up in the standings.  The Jets look like the class of the league at this point of the season, but they are not dominant yet.  New England is solid, while Miami has enough talent to stay in the playoff picture.  We will call for the Jets to win the division at 12-4 or 13-3 with the Patriots in the Wildcard picture at 11-5 or 12-4.  As for Miami, the Dolphins will stay in the hunt for most of the season before settling in at 9-7. 

AFC North

Pittsburgh and Baltimore are as strong collectively as the Jets and Patriots.  We feel strongly that both teams will make the playoffs with records in the 12-4 range.  Cincinnati is going to struggle to finish at 8-8, while Cleveland will lose double digit games again. 

AFC South

 

With the East and North both having two very good teams, there won’t be room for a Wildcard in this division.  Three teams sit tied at 4-2.  Houston’s defense will cost them a game or two down the stretch.  Tennessee and Indianapolis should decide this division in their head-to-head matchups.  We will go with the great Peyton Manning to pull off two close wins and give the Colts another division title at 11-5.  Jacksonville will more than likely be shopping for a new coach.  They should be shopping for a new city.  The Los Angeles Jaguars has a nice ring to it. 

AFC West

 

San Diego cannot win on the road, and the last time we checked, they have eight road games.  Denver has not started on fire this year and will not be 6-2 at the halfway point before they collapse in the second half.  Oakland is still a dozen quality players short, while Kansas City has shown just enough to lead this division.  We think the Chiefs could pull this off at 9-7. 

Our playoff Soothsayer sees this scenario:

 

NFC

1. Philadelphia

2. New Orleans

3. Minnesota

4. Seattle

W. Atlanta 

W. New York Giants 

AFC

1. New York Jets

2. Pittsburgh

3. Indianapolis

4. Kansas City

W. New England 

W. Baltimore 

 

Wildcard Round

New York Giants at Minnesota

Atlanta at Seattle 

Baltimore at Indianapolis

New England at Kansas City 

Divisional Round

 

Minnesota at Philadelphia

Seattle at New Orleans 

Indianapolis at Pittsburgh

New England at New York Jets

 

Conference Championship

New Orleans at Philadelphia

 

Pittsburgh at New York Jets 

SUPER BOWL

 

Philadelphia vs. Pittsburgh 

Winner: The Commonwealth of Pennsylvania

 

This Week’s PiRate Passer Ratings 

Player Team Comp% Int % AYPA PiRate #
Michael Vick PHI 61.5 0.00 6.7 121.5
Peyton Manning IND  67.3 0.79 6.9 115.7
Kyle Orton DEN 62.8 1.21 6.7 110.8
Phillip Rivers SD 62.3 2.27 7 103.2
Mark Sanchez NYJ 55.4 1.13 5.1 102.6
Kevin Kolb PHI 67.6 1.90 5.8 99.7
Jay Cutler CHI 60.3 2.13 5.7 97.2
Vince Young TEN 61.4 1.98 5.4 96.8
Seneca Wallace CLE 63.0 2.00 5.4 96.6
Josh Freeman TB 59.1 1.89 5.1 96.0
Matt Ryan ATL 60.3 1.83 5 95.9
Tom Brady NE 67.5 2.41 5.6 94.2
Donovan McNabb WAS 58.1 2.33 5.4 93.8
Matt Schaub HOU 64.5 2.54 5.7 93.6
Drew Brees NO 70.6 2.60 5.7 93.1
Matt Cassel KC 57.8 2.22 4.9 91.9
Ryan Fitzpatrick BUF 61.2 2.35 4.9 90.7
Chad Henne MIA 63.2 2.92 5.1 86.8
Joe Flacco BAL 60.5 2.93 5.1 86.8
Tony Romo DAL 69.4 3.40 5.7 86.0
Carson Palmer CIN 59.3 3.09 4.8 83.7
Aaron Rodgers GB 64.2 3.48 5.3 83.0
Shaun Hill DET 61.1 3.37 4.4 79.0
Eli Manning NYG 64.7 3.92 4.9 76.9
Matt Hasselbeck SEA 61.4 3.61 4.2 75.7
Sam Bradford STL 56.8 3.42 3.6 74.1
Bruce Gradkowski OAK 52.0 3.92 4.3 73.6
Alex Smith SF 60.1 4.04 4.1 71.4
Jimmie Clausen CAR 47.3 3.30 2.6 69.5
Brett Favre MIN 58.7 4.67 3.5 62.5
Derek Anderson ARI 51.8 4.39 2.8 61.1
Jason Campbell OAK 56.0 4.40 2.6 59.9
David Garrard JAX 65.6 5.47 3.2 53.8
Charlie Batch PIT 59.2 6.12 3.7 50.8
Trent Edwards JAX 56.6 5.26 1.4 45.5
Jake Delhomme CLE 55.0 6.67 2.2 37.7
Matt Moore CAR 42.4 10.17 0.2 -4.4

 

The PiRate Passer Formula is: ((7* AYPA) – (11* Int.%)) +105] * 0.8

 

AYPA is Air Yards Per Pass Attempt or Passing Yards minus Yards After Catch. 

This statistic is available at advancednflstats.com

This Week’s NFL PiRate Ratings

 

 

NFC East

PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T PPG Opp
Philadelphia Eagles 105.0 103.2 104.9 4-2-0 28.2 20.0
Dallas Cowboys 103.1 101.1 99.9 1-4-0 20.4 22.2
New York Giants 102.8 102.9 103.2 4-2-0 22.3 19.7
Washington Redskins 98.6 100.1 98.2 3-3-0 18.8 19.8
             
NFC North PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Minnesota Vikings 103.1 102.0 100.7 2-3-0 17.4 17.6
Green Bay Packers 102.4 102.6 100.7 3-3-0 23.2 18.7
Chicago Bears 98.9 100.1 99.5 4-2-0 18.7 16.2
Detroit Lions 96.5 98.6 93.9 1-5-0 24.3 23.3
             
NFC South PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
New Orleans Saints 104.6 102.4 104.1 4-2-0 21.7 18.0
Atlanta Falcons 103.6 103.6 102.3 4-2-0 21.7 16.8
Carolina Panthers 97.1 92.2 89.8 0-5-0 10.4 22.0
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 92.6 95.4 96.7 3-2-0 16.0 22.2
             
NFC West PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Seattle Seahawks 97.4 97.3 98.6 3-2-0 19.6 19.4
San Francisco 49ers 97.1 95.6 95.8 1-5-0 16.3 23.2
St. Louis Rams 94.6 95.2 97.1 3-3-0 17.2 18.8
Arizona Cardinals 94.0 96.9 97.3 3-2-0 17.6 27.6
             
AFC East PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
New York Jets 110.4 108.1 109.4 5-1-0 26.5 16.8
New England Patriots 106.4 106.1 107.0 4-1-0 30.8 23.2
Miami Dolphins 101.4 99.4 101.7 3-2-0 17.8 22.4
Buffalo Bills 91.6 90.5 88.9 0-5-0 17.4 32.6
             
AFC North PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Baltimore Ravens 106.5 106.0 107.6 4-2-0 18.7 15.8
Pittsburgh Steelers 105.4 107.9 106.6 4-1-0 22.8 12.0
Cincinnati Bengals 100.5 99.0 99.0 2-3-0 20.0 20.4
Cleveland Browns 95.2 95.8 94.9 1-5-0 14.7 20.8
             
AFC South PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Indianapolis Colts 105.1 105.5 105.4 4-2-0 27.2 20.8
Tennessee Titans 103.2 107.0 105.3 4-2-0 27.0 16.3
Houston Texans 100.3 98.7 102.5 4-2-0 25.5 27.8
Jacksonville Jaguars 92.5 93.9 97.6 3-3-0 18.3 27.8
             
AFC West PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
San Diego Chargers 99.9 99.6 100.2 2-4-0 26.2 21.0
Kansas City Chiefs 99.6 99.6 100.7 3-2-0 21.6 18.4
Denver Broncos 97.6 99.6 97.3 2-4-0 20.7 23.3
Oakland Raiders 93.4 94.1 93.0 2-4-0 20.0 25.2

This Week’s PiRate, Mean, and Biased Spreads 

This Week’s Games
Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site        
             
Week 7: October 24-25, 2010          
Vegas Line as of 3:30 PM EDT Tuesday          
             
Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vegas Totals
Pittsburgh MIAMI 2.0 6.5 2.9 3    40 ½
ATLANTA Cincinnati 6.1 7.6 6.3 3 1/2 43   
KANSAS CITY Jacksonville 10.1 8.7 6.1 4 1/2 43   
TENNESSEE Philadelphia 1.2 6.8 3.4 3    44   
CHICAGO Washington 3.3 3.0 4.3 3    40   
NEW ORLEANS Cleveland 12.4 9.6 6.2 13    43   
BALTIMORE Buffalo 17.9 18.5 21.7 13    38   
CAROLINA San Francisco 2.0 -1.4 -4.0 -3    35   
TAMPA BAY St. Louis 0.0 2.2 1.6 3    38 ½
SEATTLE Arizona 5.4 2.4 3.3 5 1/2 40 ½
New England SAN DIEGO 2.5 2.5 2.8 -3    47   
DENVER Oakland 7.2 8.5 7.3 7    42 ½
GREEN BAY Minnesota 2.3 2.6 3.0 2 1/2 44 ½
DALLAS New York Giants 2.3 0.2 -1.3 3 1/2 44 ½


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