The Pi-Rate Ratings

October 4, 2010

PiRate Ratings For College Football: October 5-9, 2010

PiRate Rating Selections Go 4-3 against the spread.

 

It was our worst week of the season, but at least we turned a small profit to those who chose to purchase our picks last week.  This is the last week you can purchase the rest of the season in one package.  After this week, you may only buy our weekly picks.  There will be a bowl season/NFL Playoffs opportunity available in Mid-December.

 

For the season, our picks are now 28-13-2 for 68.3% against the spread.  As you will see, we lost our three college selections, but we aced the NFL picks.  This has continued to be our trend, as our NFL picks are red hot.  We are 12-4-0 with our NFL picks and 16-9-2 with our college selections.  We will continue to monitor this, and if our NFL picks continue to top 70%, we may rely close to 100% on selecting those games.  Go to www.piratings.webs.com to purchase our selections.

 

Not the Most Important Week, But…

 

This will be one of the most interesting weeks in the college football season with several trap games as well as key games in the conference races.  Let’s take a look conference-by-conference with some of the big games.

 

ACC

Neither team will figure in the national championship picture, but Miami and Florida State hook up in a game that should determine at least one of the division races.  Should the Seminoles win, they should cruise to the Atlantic Division title.  FSU would still be the favorite in the Atlantic with a loss.

 

Miami needs this game to win the Coastal Division title.  Virginia Tech may beat every other ACC opponent, and even if the Hurricanes pinned a loss on the Hokies, The “U” could lose at Georgia Tech and finish 6-2 in the league if they lose to the ‘Noles.

 

Big East

There is only one important game in league play, but for bowl purposes, there are actually two.

 

South Florida hosts improved Syracuse this week, and if the Orangemen could spring the upset, it could make the conference race look like 2007 when seven of the eight teams had a chance to win the championship.  USF has been hot and cold, so this game should be interesting.

 

Pittsburgh plays at Notre Dame.  If the Irish win, they will move up in the bowl hierarchy.  Notre Dame can steal a Big East bowl bid as part of the bowl alliances. 

 

Big Ten

This is going to be a fantastic race.  We have looked at the contending teams’ strengths and weaknesses, and we honestly cannot find one team that looks head and heels better than the others.  Thus, we could see 6-2 getting a piece of the league crown and 7-1 winning it outright.  No 7-1 Big Ten team will jump over an undefeated Boise State or TCU team.

 

The big game takes place at the Big House where undefeated rivals Michigan and Michigan State square off.  Expect yet another exciting game, as these games have been great matchups in recent seasons.  Two of the past five games have been decided in overtime, while one other was decided by four points. 

 

Ohio State should have little trouble with Indiana, but don’t expect a 28-point win.  If the Hoosiers make this game close, then the seven point Michigan win at Bloomington will mean something.

 

Iowa is off this week, and this gives the Hawkeyes an extra week to prepare for the Wolverines.

 

Wisconsin is not out of the race yet, but the Badgers have a tough road to climb.  They entertain Minnesota and should retain Paul Bunyan’s Axe.  Speaking of axes, that is what Gopher coach Tim Brewster is going to receive before the end of the season.

 

Sitting pretty at 5-0, Northwestern should defeat Purdue to move to 6-0 for the first time since Ara Parseghian led the Wildcats to a 6-0 start in 1962.  Of course, that Wildcat team moved to number one in the AP Poll following the 6-0 start.

 

Big 12

Undefeated Nebraska is travelling to the Little Apple for a tough trap game Thursday night against Kansas State.  Coach Bill Snyder has KSU 4-0 for the first time since 2003.  We believe the Cornhuskers are a bit overrated and ripe for the upset, but we think Coach Bo Pelini’s troops will find a way to win a low-scoring game.

 

A couple of other games will provide clues as to which teams will go bowling and which will not.  Texas Tech faces Baylor at the Cotton Bowl, and the lose will be in trouble.  Baylor is 4-1.  The Bears were 4-1 in 2005 and gave Nebraska and Oklahoma great battles the next two weeks but lost both.  The last time the Bears were 5-1 was 1994, which is also the last season they played in a bowl game.

 

Missouri hosts Colorado.  The Tigers may have enough talent to challenge Nebraska for the North Division title, but they have some tough games facing them prior to playing the Cornhuskers.  The Buffaloes need three more wins to become bowl eligible, and we believe they will get them with one more for good measure.  If CU can pull off the upset, the Buffs could have an outside shot at still being in contention in the North when they face Nebraska in Lincoln on the Friday after Thanksgiving.

 

Pac-10

Oregon benefits big time this week.  The Ducks, ripe for a big bounce, face hapless Washington State. 

 

Stanford must play Southern Cal, and the Trojans will give the Cardinal their best after the embarrassment Stanford handed them last year.  Expect a game with a lot of 15-yard personal foul penalties, and we would not be surprised if there was a fight at some point.

 

Arizona should handle Oregon State to remain undefeated.  The Wildcats should be 7-0 when they travel to Pasadena to face UCLA on October 30.

 

The Bruins face Cal in Berkeley this week.  The winner can go ahead and make bowl plans, while fans of the loser will start to panic a little.

 

SEC

This is the biggest trap game of the week.  Top-ranked Alabama faces its third tough opponent in as many weeks.  They must go on the road to face Steve Spurrier’s South Carolina Gamecocks.  USC had a week off, and Coach Superior has had two weeks to prepare for this game.  Expect one that is up for grabs in the final minutes.

 

Florida hosts LSU in a trap game.  The Gators should handle the Tigers, but if they come out a lay an egg, Les Miles’ squad could become a very lucky 6-0.

 

Coach Derrick Dooley takes his Tennessee Volunteers between the Hedges to face the team that made his father a legend.  Georgia is 1-4, and if they lose to the 2-3 Vols, Coach Mark Richt’s fate may be sealed if it isn’t already.

 

Auburn visits Kentucky.  The Wildcats are not as talented as the Tigers and should give up 35-45 points, but we believe this could be an interesting game.

 

TCU/Boise State

TCU hosts Wyoming, and even though the Cowboys played the Horned Frogs close for 25 minutes last year, we see a four touchdown or greater victory.

 

Boise State hosts Toledo.  The Broncos won 59-0 over New Mexico State and fell one spot in the polls, and this may force Chris Petersen to go for the jugular against teams that have no chance.  The Broncos have the potential to score 70 or more points in this game.

 

Let’s take a look at the PiRate Top 25, the ratings for all 120 FBS teams, and the computer spreads for our three rating systems:

 

NCAA Top 25 October 4, 2010
Rank Team PiRate Won Lost
1 Alabama 132.5 5 0
2 Oregon 132.0 5 0
3 Boise State 128.2 4 0
4 Arkansas 125.1 3 1
5 T C U 124.9 5 0
6 Oklahoma 124.4 5 0
7 Ohio State 124.0 5 0
8 Stanford 123.0 4 1
9 Miami (Fla) 122.5 3 1
10 Iowa 121.6 4 1
11 Florida State 121.2 4 1
12 South Carolina 121.0 3 1
13 Nebraska 120.8 4 0
14 Florida 119.3 4 1
15 Auburn 119.3 5 0
16 Virginia Tech 118.9 3 2
17 Arizona 118.0 4 0
18 North Carolina 116.3 2 2
19 Texas 116.0 3 2
20 California 115.0 2 2
21 Texas A&M 115.0 3 1
22 L S U 114.5 5 0
23 Wisconsin 114.3 4 1
24 Georgia Tech 114.3 3 2
25 Clemson 113.2 2 2
         
Note: Ratings rounded to one decimal point
even though I rank them to two decimal points

 

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Florida State 2-0 4-1 121.2
Clemson 0-1 2-2 113.2
North Carolina State 1-1 4-1 105.2
Boston College 0-1 2-2 104.6
Wake Forest 1-2 2-3 100.8
Maryland 1-0 4-1 95.4
       
Coastal Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Miami-FL 1-0 3-1 122.5
Virginia Tech 2-0 3-2 118.9
North Carolina 0-1 2-2 116.3
Georgia Tech 2-1 3-2 114.3
Virginia 0-1 2-2 95.9
Duke 0-2 1-4 91.0

 

Big East Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
West Virginia 0-0 3-1 111.7
Connecticut 0-0 3-2 109.1
Pittsburgh 0-0 2-2 107.4
Cincinnati 0-0 1-3 107.0
South Florida 0-0 3-1 103.6
Syracuse 0-0 3-1 99.8
Louisville 0-0 2-2 94.8
Rutgers 0-0 2-2 92.7

 

Big Ten
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Ohio State 1-0 5-0 124.0
Iowa 1-0 4-1 121.6
Wisconsin 0-1 4-1 114.3
Michigan State 1-0 5-0 110.5
Michigan 1-0 5-0 110.1
Penn State 0-1 3-2 108.0
Illinois 0-1 2-2 100.6
Northwestern 1-0 5-0 97.4
Minnesota 0-1 1-4 94.9
Purdue 0-0 2-2 94.6
Indiana 0-1 3-1 92.9

 

Big 12
North Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Nebraska 0-0 4-0 120.8
Missouri 0-0 4-0 112.3
Colorado 0-0 3-1 104.3
Iowa State 1-1 3-2 98.4
Kansas State 1-0 4-0 97.8
Kansas 0-1 2-3 95.0
       
South Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Oklahoma 1-0 5-0 124.4
Texas 1-1 3-2 116.0
Texas A&M 0-1 3-1 115.0
Baylor 1-0 4-1 107.0
Texas Tech 0-2 2-2 106.9
Oklahoma State 1-0 4-0 104.9

 

Conference USA
East Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Southern Mississippi 1-0 4-1 95.6
Central Florida 0-0 2-2 95.2
East Carolina 2-0 2-2 91.6
U A B 0-1 1-3 89.5
Marshall 0-1 1-4 84.8
Memphis 0-3 1-4 76.4
       
West Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Houston 2-0 3-1 102.9
S M U 2-0 3-2 97.1
Tulsa 1-1 3-2 92.9
Rice 0-1 1-4 85.2
U T E P 1-1 4-1 84.3
Tulane 0-1 2-2 77.6

 

Independents
       
Team   Overall Rating
Notre Dame   2-3 111.0
Navy   2-2 99.5
Army   3-2 86.4

 

Mid American Conference
East Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Temple 1-0 4-1 94.2
Miami (O) 2-0 3-2 89.0
Kent St. 0-1 1-3 85.5
Ohio U 1-1 2-3 83.4
Buffalo 1-0 2-3 82.5
Bowling Green 0-1 1-4 78.6
Akron 0-1 0-5 71.0
       
West Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Northern Illinois 1-0 3-2 94.1
Central Michigan 1-2 2-3 87.5
Toledo 2-0 3-2 85.1
Ball State 1-0 2-3 82.8
Western Michigan 0-1 1-3 75.4
Eastern Michigan 0-3 0-5 70.4

 

Mountain West Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
T C U 1-0 5-0 124.9
Utah 2-0 4-0 111.3
Air Force 2-0 4-1 105.7
S. D. State 0-0 3-1 99.9
B Y U 0-1 1-4 96.6
Wyoming 0-1 2-3 94.0
UNLV 1-1 1-4 92.4
Colo. State 0-1 1-4 85.2
New Mexico 0-2 0-5 73.4

 

Pac-10 Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Oregon 2-0 5-0 132.0
Stanford 1-1 4-1 123.0
Arizona 1-0 4-0 118.0
California 0-1 2-2 115.0
Washington 1-0 2-2 113.1
Oregon St. 1-0 2-2 112.1
Southern Cal 1-1 4-1 111.0
U C L A 1-1 3-2 109.8
Arizona St. 0-2 2-3 103.5
Wash. St. 0-2 1-4 88.2

 

Southeastern Conference
East Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
South Carolina 1-1 3-1 121.0
Florida 2-1 4-1 119.3
Georgia 0-3 1-4 108.7
Kentucky 0-2 3-2 102.3
Tennessee 0-2 2-3 101.0
Vanderbilt 1-1 1-3 95.8
       
West Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Alabama 2-0 5-0 132.5
Arkansas 1-1 3-1 125.1
Auburn 2-0 5-0 119.3
L S U 3-0 5-0 114.5
Mississippi State 1-2 3-2 111.6
Ole Miss 1-1 3-2 102.9

 

Sunbelt Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Middle Tennessee 1-0 2-2 87.8
Troy 1-0 2-2 87.4
Florida International 0-0 0-4 81.6
North Texas 1-1 1-4 81.3
U. of Louisiana 2-1 2-2 80.6
Florida Atlantic 0-1 1-3 79.5
Arkansas State 1-2 1-4 78.8
Louisiana-Monroe 0-1 1-3 74.4
Western Kentucky 0-0 0-4 73.7

 

Western Athletic Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Boise State 1-0 4-0 128.2
Nevada 0-0 5-0 110.5
Fresno State 1-0 3-1 100.6
Utah State 0-1 2-3 97.8
Idaho 0-0 3-2 93.4
Hawaii 1-0 3-2 90.5
Louisiana Tech 0-1 1-4 90.0
San Jose State 0-0 1-4 78.6
New Mexico State 0-1 0-4 72.3

 

This Week’s Games–PiRate Ratings
Home Team Advantage Added (2-5 points)    
Tuesday, October 5      
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
MIDDLE TENNESSEE Troy 3.4 34-31
       
Wednesday, October 6      
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
CENTRAL FLORIDA U  a  b 8.7 33-24
       
Thursday, October 7      
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
Nebraska KANSAS STATE 20.0 27-7
       
Friday, October 8      
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
Connecticut RUTGERS 13.4 30-17
Oklahoma State LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE 21.3 42-21
       
Saturday, October 2      
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
ARIZONA Oregon State 8.9 26-17
CALIFORNIA U  c  l  a 8.2 31-23
FLORIDA L  s  u 8.3 21-13
SOUTH FLORIDA Syracuse 7.3 24-17
GEORGIA TECH Virginia 21.4 38-17
GEORGIA Tennessee 10.7 27-16
Utah IOWA STATE 8.9 27-18
Auburn KENTUCKY 14.0 38-24
LOUISVILLE Memphis 21.4 31-10
MICHIGAN Michigan State 2.6 34-31
MISSOURI Colorado 11.0 24-13
NORTH CAROLINA ST. Boston College 3.6 21-17
NORTH CAROLINA Clemson 6.1 27-21
WAKE FOREST Navy 4.3 24-20
OHIO STATE Indiana 34.6 52-17
PENN STATE Illinois 10.9 21-10
VANDERBILT Eastern Michigan 28.4 35-7
Arkansas  (Cowboys Stad) Texas A&M 9.1 35-26
NORTH TEXAS Arkansas State 5.0 35-30
WASHINGTON Arizona State 13.1 34-21
Oregon WASHINGTON STATE 40.8 48-7
WISCONSIN Minnesota 22.4 42-20
BALL STATE Western Michigan 9.9 31-21
CINCINNATI Miami (O) 20.5 35-14
FLORIDA INT’L Western Kentucky 10.9 31-20
MIAMI (FL) Florida State 3.8 28-24
NEVADA San Jose State 34.9 49-14
NORTHERN ILLINOIS Temple 2.9 24-21
Alabama SOUTH CAROLINA 8.5 25-16
Baylor (Cotton Bowl) Texas Tech 0.1 27-27 to ot
VIRGINIA TECH Central Michigan 35.4 41-6
OHIO U Bowling Green 7.3 24-17
AIR FORCE Colorado State 23.0 35-12
WEST VIRGINIA U  n  l  v 23.3 33-10
KENT STATE Akron 17.0 27-10
Army TULANE 6.3 23-17
NOTRE DAME Pittsburgh 6.6 24-17
T  C  U Wyoming 34.4 41-7
Utah State LOUISIANA TECH 4.5 28-23
San Diego State B  Y  U 0.3 28-28 to ot
Florida Atlantic LOUISIANA-MONROE 2.6 30-27
NORTHWESTERN Purdue 5.8 27-21
SOUTHERN MISS East Carolina 7.0 30-23
STANFORD Southern Cal 15.0 35-20
BOISE STATE Toledo 47.1 61-14
Mississippi State HOUSTON 5.7 34-28
S  M  U Tulsa 7.2 38-31
NEW MEXICO STATE New Mexico 1.4 24-23
U  T  E  P Rice 1.6 34-32
FRESNO STATE Hawaii 13.1 37-24

 

This Week’s Games–Mean & Biased Ratings
Tuesday, October 5      
Favorite Underdog Mean Biased
MIDDLE TENNESSEE Troy 35-30 30-28
       
Wednesday, October 6      
Favorite Underdog Mean Biased
CENTRAL FLORIDA U  a  b 30-21 27-20
       
Thursday, October 7      
Favorite Underdog Mean Biased
Nebraska KANSAS STATE 28-10 20-10
       
Friday, October 8      
Favorite Underdog Mean Biased
Connecticut RUTGERS 27-24 31-17
Oklahoma State LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE 38-17 38-17
       
Saturday, October 2      
Favorite Underdog Mean Biased
ARIZONA Oregon State 21-17 24-14
CALIFORNIA U  c  l  a 28-24 27-21
FLORIDA L  s  u 21-13 34-13
SOUTH FLORIDA Syracuse 30-20 26-14
GEORGIA TECH Virginia 33-21 30-20
GEORGIA Tennessee 21-16 26-20
Utah IOWA STATE 24-17 26-23
Auburn KENTUCKY 34-27 41-20
LOUISVILLE Memphis 31-14 31-13
MICHIGAN Michigan State 38-34 38-34
MISSOURI Colorado 35-27 35-27
NORTH CAROLINA ST. Boston College 27-17 27-17
NORTH CAROLINA Clemson 23-17 24-21
Navy WAKE FOREST 28-27 28-24
OHIO STATE Indiana 48-19 37-20
PENN STATE Illinois 24-10 20-10
VANDERBILT Eastern Michigan 34-7 34-14
Arkansas  (Cowboys Stad) Texas A&M 40-27 41-24
Arkansas State NORTH TEXAS 31-30 31-34
WASHINGTON Arizona State 35-30 35-26
Oregon WASHINGTON STATE 56-12 56-10
WISCONSIN Minnesota 33-21 35-20
BALL STATE Western Michigan 30-17 24-23
CINCINNATI Miami (O) 34-14 27-17
FLORIDA INT’L Western Kentucky 25-17 26-17
MIAMI (FL) Florida State 27-20 24-20
NEVADA San Jose State 49-16 48-14
Temple NORTHERN ILLINOIS 27-23 20-21
Alabama SOUTH CAROLINA 26-10 26-13
Texas Tech (Cotton Bowl) Baylor 28-26 27-34
VIRGINIA TECH Central Michigan 31-6 35-0
OHIO U Bowling Green 24-17 28-17
AIR FORCE Colorado State 37-10 27-12
WEST VIRGINIA U  n  l  v 35-14 37-14
KENT STATE Akron 30-17 27-20
Army TULANE 24-17 16-19
NOTRE DAME Pittsburgh 24-19 23-17
T  C  U Wyoming 37-7 26-7
Utah State LOUISIANA TECH 28-27 24-28
B  Y  U San Diego State 28-24 21-31
Florida Atlantic LOUISIANA-MONROE 24-24 to ot 27-17
NORTHWESTERN Purdue 31-20 29-20
SOUTHERN MISS East Carolina 30-23 28-23
STANFORD Southern Cal 40-27 44-27
BOISE STATE Toledo 45-10 55-13
Mississippi State HOUSTON 30-21 26-20
S  M  U Tulsa 41-33 42-34
NEW MEXICO STATE New Mexico 24-24 to ot 27-24
U  T  E  P Rice 38-33 38-30
FRESNO STATE Hawaii 40-31 38-35

 

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