The Pi-Rate Ratings

September 21, 2010

PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 3–September 26-27, 2010

Two weeks into the NFL season brings very few surprises.  Tampa Bay and Kansas City are 2-0, while Dallas and Minnesota are 0-2.  Overall, defenses are ahead of offenses on the whole, and it looks like very few teams will top 400 points this season.  The 3-4 defense with the zone blitz has stymied many quarterbacks, and we are seeing more 14-10 type games.  

We’ve noticed that punt returns are a dying art.  Punters are getting adequate hang time; more punts are being made that are not returnable, and players like Devin Hester are not getting the opportunity to return punts.

As we mentioned in the college ratings, our 10 and 13-point sweetheart teaser plays have been like gold to us so far.  If the scores continue to be lower than normal, these should continue to pay dividends for us.  Go to www.piratings.webs.com to purchase this week’s picks.  Deadline is 7 PM Eastern Time Wednesdays.  All purchases made after the deadline will be applied to the next week’s games.

Current Regular Season NFL PiRate Ratings
             
             

NFC East 

PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T PPG Opp
Dallas  102.4 100.2 99.4 0-2-0 13.5 20.0
Philadelphia  100.8 100.5 102.2 1-1-0 27.5 29.5
New York Giants 100.0 99.8 100.1 1-1-0 22.5 28.0
Washington 99.4 99.9 101.8 1-1-0 20.0 18.5
             
NFC North PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Green Bay 106.6 107.7 108.4 2-0-0 30.5 13.5
Minnesota 103.5 103.2 102.7 0-2-0 9.5 14.0
Chicago 101.5 99.8 103.4 2-0-0 23.0 17.0
Detroit 92.5 92.4 92.9 0-2-0 23.0 27.0
             
NFC South PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Atlanta 106.0 104.9 105.3 1-1-0 25.0 11.0
New Orleans 104.8 106.3 106.5 2-0-0 19.5 15.5
Carolina 98.3 97.1 96.2 0-2-0 12.5 25.5
Tampa Bay 96.5 99.7 100.6 2-0-0 18.5 10.5
             
NFC West PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
San Francisco 99.2 96.6 98.7 0-2-0 14.0 28.0
Arizona 96.2 95.6 96.1 1-1-0 12.0 27.0
Seattle 94.2 96.3 99.4 1-1-0 22.5 18.5
St. Louis 89.9 89.8 90.1 0-2-0 13.5 16.5
             
AFC East PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
NY Jets 107.9 105.1 105.1 1-1-0 18.5 12.0
New England 105.0 102.9 102.9 1-1-0 26.0 26.0
Miami 102.8 102.6 101.8 2-0-0 14.5 10.0
Buffalo 95.2 94.5 91.5 0-2-0 8.5 24.5
             
AFC North PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Baltimore 105.3 103.7 103.7 1-1-0 10.0 12.0
Pittsburgh 102.3 105.0 105.2 2-0-0 17.0 10.0
Cincinnati 100.7 99.8 99.6 1-1-0 19.5 24.0
Cleveland 96.2 94.9 95.3 0-2-0 14.0 16.5
             
AFC South PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Indianapolis 104.7 106.1 106.5 1-1-0 31.0 24.0
Houston 103.5 104.7 104.2 2-0-0 32.0 25.5
Tennessee 99.9 101.4 98.6 1-1-0 24.5 16.0
Jacksonville 95.6 96.3 94.3 1-1-0 18.5 27.5
             
AFC West PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
San Diego 102.5 104.4 100.3 1-1-0 26.0 17.0
Kansas City 97.7 99.1 98.9 2-0-0 18.5 14.0
Denver 97.0 98.3 96.8 1-1-0 24.0 19.0
Oakland 92.0 91.8 91.5 1-1-0 14.5 26.0

 

This Week’s Games
Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site        
             
Week 3: September 26-27, 2010          
Vegas Line as of 10:30 PM EDT Tuesday          
             
Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vegas Totals
NEW YORK GIANTS Tennessee 3.1 1.4 4.5 3    42   
NEW ENGLAND Buffalo 13.8 12.4 15.4 14    42 1/2
BALTIMORE Cleveland 12.1 11.8 11.4 10 1/2 37   
Bitmap

Pittsburgh
TAMPA BAY 7.8 7.3 6.6 2 1/2 33   
CAROLINA Cincinnati 0.6 5.2 3.9 -3    38 1/2
NEW ORLEANS Atlanta 1.8 4.4 4.2 4    49 1/2
KANSAS CITY San Francisco 0.5 4.5 2.2 -3    36 1/2
MINNESOTA Detroit 15.0 14.8 13.8 11    42 1/2
HOUSTON Dallas 3.1 6.5 6.8 3    47 1/2
Washington ST. LOUIS 7.5 8.1 9.7 3 1/2 38   
Philadelphia JACKSONVILLE 2.2 1.2 4.9 3    44 1/2
Indianapolis DENVER 4.7 4.8 6.7 5 1/2 48   
San Diego SEATTLE 6.3 6.1 -1.1 5 1/2 44   
ARIZONA Oakland 6.2 5.8 6.6 4    39   
New York Jets MIAMI 3.1 0.5 1.3 -2 1/2 34 1/2
Green Bay CHICAGO 2.1 4.9 2.0 3    46   
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