The Pi-Rate Ratings

September 20, 2010

PiRate Ratings For College Football: September 23-25, 2010

It was not as pretty as the first two weeks, but the PiRate Ratings eeked out another winner, making it three for three in 2010.  We finished 5-4, making our record for the season against the spread 18-8-1.  We are still quite pleased with our near 70% record, and we are beginning to pick up on some tendencies. 

Our 13-point sweetheart teasers in the NFL are doing quite well.  It looks like a year of closer games in the pro league, and moving the pointspread by 13 points in our favor may be a wise move when we can locate games that are already a point or two off what we think they should be.  We love finding teams that are favorites and moving them to ‘dogs.  Here are the picks in depth.

 

1. California -2 ½ vs. Nevada

Loss

We blew this one to start off the weekend in the hole.  The Wolf Pack skinned the Bears, who when last spotted were more scared of the pistol than the 20-gauge.

 

2. Alabama -24 vs. Duke

WON

The Tide covered the spread in the first quarter.  We felt that the oddsmakers and bettors were giving the Blue Devils too much credit and home field advantage.

 

3. 13-point teaser: Purdue -3 ½ vs. Ball State, East Carolina +32 ½ vs. Virginia Tech, Wisconsin -1 vs. Arizona State, Oregon State -6 ½ vs. Louisville

Loss

One caveat.  Many of you who bought our picks and played this on Friday would have actually won this selection.  Wisconsin was a 13 ½ point favorite and not 14, so you would have gotten the Badgers at – ½.  This is the one drawback of sweetheart teasers.  A regular teaser would have been a push here with Wisconsin winning by one, but we must count this one as a loss.

 

4. 13-point teaser: Boise State -10 ½ vs. Wyoming, Arizona + 14 ½ vs. Iowa, Memphis +18 vs. Middle Tennessee, Troy +10 vs. UAB

WON

None of these games were ever in doubt.  We loved Boise coming off a bye week.  We felt Arizona had a great shot at the upset and even if Iowa could win, we did not see the Hawkeyes travelling across two time zones and winning by more than two touchdowns.  We felt that Middle Tennessee could not beat Memphis by double digits, and they lost outright.  We did not see UAB beating Troy, but it was by one point, so we were safe.

 

5. Kansas City +1 vs. Cleveland

WON

Normally, we would not have played this game.  The Chiefs were coming off an emotional Monday night win against San Diego and were having to play on the road.  Usually, all momentum is lost under this circumstance.  However, we felt like the Chiefs could shut down Cleveland’s offense, and they did.

 

6. Atlanta & Arizona Under 43

Loss

We knew the Cardinals would not score many points in this game, but we didn’t think their defense would implode.  Atlanta showed no semblance of a running game against the Steelers, and we thought they would concentrate on running the ball in game two.  We were looking for a 24-13 game.

 

7. Moneyline Parlay at +110: Minnesota over Miami and Indianapolis over the Giants

Loss

The Vikings have returned to Viqueens status.  Brett Favre has looked like he should have stayed retired this time.  Miami may prove to be a great team this year, and it could be a case of Minnesota playing two outstanding opponents, but we may lay off the Vikings for a few weeks.

 

Indianapolis rebounded with a great game and earned our respect without us throwing our helmets into the stands.

 

8. 10-point teaser: Green Bay & Buffalo Over 33, Philadelphia & Detroit Over 32, Dallas & Chicago Over 31

WON

Here are three more games that covered for us with ease.  We were confident the Packers would score enough to cover even if the Bills were shut out.  We are down on the Eagles and believe the Lions will begin to win some more games this year, so we felt this game would at least top 40 total points.  We expected a shootout in Dallas with both teams topping 20 points, and even though we thought Dallas would win 24-21, we still won by playing only the total in this game.

 

9. 13-point teaser: Cleveland +12 vs. Kansas City, Cleveland & Kansas City Under 51, Baltimore +12 vs. Cincinnati, Pittsburgh +18 vs. Tennessee

WON

The Browns and Chiefs are the two teams that gave us our winning weekend.  We felt that Kansas City would win by less than a touchdown and that neither team would top 24 points.  We thought the Ravens and Bengals would have a fantastic matchup with the game being decided by less than a touchdown either way.  Even though we expected a few more points, we were happy with the 15-10 Cinti win.  We had no way of knowing the Titans would have as many turnovers as first downs until late in the game; we expected a 14-10 Tennessee win, but we were safe in this game after the opening kickoff.

 

Odds and Ends

 

ACC and Big East Better Look Behind Them

 

The Mountain West Conference may be on the brink of becoming the fifth best conference in college football.  Even with the loss of Utah, the additions of Boise State, Fresno State, and Nevada may move the MWC ahead of the ACC and Big East.

 

If this season were factored into the equation, you would have two top five teams in TCU and Boise State, as well as Air Force, Nevada, Fresno State, BYU, and two up and coming teams in San Diego State and Wyoming.

 

If the Big Ten raids the ACC and/or the Big East, the new Mountain West could indeed become the fifth best league in the land.

 

Could The Pac-10 Land Two Teams in BCS Bowl Without The Trojans?

 

Oregon continues to lead the way in the PiRate Ratings poll.  Arizona and Stanford keep moving up.  Is it possible that two of these three teams could end up in a BCS Bowl in January? 

 

Oregon hosts the Wildcats and Cardinal, and the Ducks look unbeatable three weeks into the season.  True, New Mexico and Portland State offered no competition, and Tennessee is headed toward a probable losing season.  However, this team is certainly much better this year than when they won the conference last year.

 

Stanford looks like a team capable of going 10-2 or 11-1.  If they win at Notre Dame this week, it will set up the best Pac-10 game since the Southern Cal and California game in 2004 when the Cardinal visit Autzen Stadium to take on the Ducks the following week.

 

Arizona suffers by playing at Oregon and at Stanford, but the Wildcats could easily win 10 games this year.

 

Another Big Week in the SEC

 

Could Alabama be stronger this season after losing so much talent from last year’s title run?  A defense that lost nine starters and 13 of the top 16 tacklers appears to be even tougher this year.  The offense is definitely better with the maturity of Greg McElroy at quarterback.

 

This starts a three-week grind for Nick Saban’s troops, as Alabama plays at Arkansas, hosts Florida, and goes to South Carolina.  Check back in three weeks.  If Alabama is 6-0, then they will win the next seven games as well and enter the National Championship Game at 13-0 for the second consecutive season.

 

Will Arkansas give Alabama a tough game this week?  They might, but we have some doubts.  While Ryan Mallett and his stable of receivers aren’t far behind some of the weaker NFL passing units, the Tide’s secondary might be strong enough to shut down some of the weaker NFL passing units. 

 

Auburn hosts South Carolina and Florida hosts Kentucky in two battles of unbeatens.  We don’t expect the Wildcats to give the Gators a great game, but the Tigers and Gamecocks should be one to watch.

 

Outside of league play, LSU looks to move to 4-0 since they were national champs in 2007.  The Tigers face unbeaten West Virginia.

 

Will a Big Ten Team Get Upset This Week?

 

This is the week in Big Ten play where 10 teams host either a MAC or FCS opponent.  Illinois has an off week.  Could one or league teams lose? 

 

You can toss out Ohio State-Eastern Michigan, Wisconsin-Austin Peay, Iowa-Ball State, Michigan State-Northern Colorado, and Indiana-Akron.  These games are locks for the Big Ten team.

 

Penn State should beat Temple, but it is not a given.  Michigan should beat Bowling Green, but the Falcons are better than UMass.  Northwestern should move to 4-0 for the second time in three seasons, but Central Michigan has enough talent to hang with the Wildcats.

 

That leaves two possible upset opportunities.  Purdue hosts an improving Toledo team that has a lot of offensive firepower.  The Boilermakers have not been impressive to date, and Danny Hope could feel his seat warming if the Rockets win at Ross-Ade Stadium this week.  Minnesota hosts a Northern Illinois team that took Illinois to the final gun last week.  The Gophers are ripe for a bad bounce after playing Southern Cal last week.  They lost to South Dakota two weeks ago, and a loss in this game could get the ball rolling for an ouster of Tim Brewster as head coach.  It would be hard to find another UM victory if they lose this week.

 

NCAA Top 25 September 20, 2010

Rank

Team

PiRate

Won

Lost

1

Oregon

130.6

3

0

2

Alabama

130.2

3

0

3

T C U

126.0

3

0

4

Ohio State

125.8

3

0

5

Oklahoma

125.4

3

0

6

Arkansas

125.1

3

0

7

Boise State

124.8

2

0

8

Stanford

123.5

3

0

9

Nebraska

123.3

3

0

10

South Carolina

122.5

3

0

11

Miami (Fla)

120.5

1

1

12

Iowa

119.9

2

1

13

Georgia Tech

119.8

2

1

14

Florida

119.7

3

0

15

Texas

119.5

3

0

16

Arizona

118.3

3

0

17

North Carolina

118.2

0

2

18

Florida State

117.8

2

1

19

Auburn

117.1

3

0

20

Virginia Tech

117.1

1

2

21

L S U

116.9

3

0

22

Texas A&M

115.7

3

0

23

Georgia

115.5

1

2

24

California

115.3

2

1

25

Wisconsin

115.2

3

0

 

 

 

 

 

Note: Ratings rounded to one decimal point

even though I rank them to two decimal points

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Florida State

0-0

2-1

117.8

Clemson

0-0

2-1

113.7

Boston College

0-0

2-0

108.3

Wake Forest

1-0

2-1

101.6

North Carolina State

0-0

3-0

101.1

Maryland

0-0

2-1

96.3

 

 

 

 

Coastal Division

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Miami-FL

0-0

1-1

120.5

Georgia Tech

1-0

2-1

119.8

North Carolina

0-1

0-2

118.2

Virginia Tech

0-0

1-2

117.1

Virginia

0-0

1-1

97.1

Duke

0-1

1-2

93.7

 

Big East Conference

 

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

West Virginia

0-0

3-0

111.5

Pittsburgh

0-0

1-1

110.0

Connecticut

0-0

1-2

109.3

South Florida

0-0

1-1

105.7

Cincinnati

0-0

1-2

105.7

Syracuse

0-0

2-1

100.1

Rutgers

0-0

2-0

95.3

Louisville

0-0

1-2

95.0

 

Big Ten

 

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Ohio State

0-0

3-0

125.8

Iowa

0-0

2-1

119.9

Wisconsin

0-0

3-0

115.2

Penn State

0-0

2-1

109.8

Michigan

0-0

3-0

109.4

Michigan State

0-0

3-0

107.3

Illinois

0-0

2-1

99.1

Minnesota

0-0

1-2

98.3

Purdue

0-0

2-1

97.3

Northwestern

0-0

3-0

96.9

Indiana

0-0

2-0

92.2

 

Big 12

North Division

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Nebraska

0-0

3-0

123.3

Missouri

0-0

3-0

111.2

Colorado

0-0

2-1

103.2

Kansas

0-0

1-2

99.3

Kansas State

1-0

3-0

98.1

Iowa State

0-1

1-2

94.9

 

 

 

 

South Division

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Oklahoma

0-0

3-0

125.4

Texas

1-0

3-0

119.5

Texas A&M

0-0

3-0

115.7

Texas Tech

0-1

2-1

111.4

Oklahoma State

0-0

3-0

104.2

Baylor

0-0

2-1

102.2

 

Conference USA

East Division

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Central Florida

0-0

2-1

94.9

Southern Mississippi

0-0

2-1

92.8

East Carolina

2-0

2-1

91.6

U A B

0-1

1-2

87.9

Marshall

0-0

0-3

87.7

Memphis

0-1

1-2

77.4

 

 

 

 

West Division

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Houston

1-0

2-1

104.0

S M U

1-0

2-1

94.9

Tulsa

0-1

1-2

89.6

Rice

0-0

1-2

86.0

U T E P

0-1

2-1

83.4

Tulane

0-0

1-1

73.2

 

Independents

 

 

 

 

Team

 

Overall

Rating

Notre Dame

 

1-2

109.7

Navy

 

2-1

99.8

Army

 

2-1

84.1

 

Mid American Conference

East Division

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Temple

1-0

3-0

92.6

Miami (O)

1-0

2-1

89.9

Kent St.

0-0

1-2

85.7

Ohio U

0-1

1-2

82.9

Buffalo

0-0

1-2

81.2

Bowling Green

0-0

1-2

80.9

Akron

0-0

0-3

74.7

 

 

 

 

West Division

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Central Michigan

1-1

2-1

90.8

Northern Illinois

0-0

1-2

89.3

Toledo

2-0

2-1

82.1

Ball State

0-0

1-2

79.8

Western Michigan

0-1

1-2

77.0

Eastern Michigan

0-2

0-3

70.2

 

Mountain West Conference

 

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

T C U

0-0

3-0

126.0

Utah

2-0

3-0

107.5

Air Force

1-0

2-1

105.4

B Y U

0-1

1-2

101.4

S. D. State

0-0

2-1

95.4

Wyoming

0-0

1-2

93.4

UNLV

0-1

0-3

91.5

Colo. State

0-0

0-3

82.2

New Mexico

0-1

0-3

76.6

 

Pac-10 Conference

 

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Oregon

0-0

3-0

130.6

Stanford

1-0

3-0

123.5

Arizona

0-0

3-0

118.3

California

0-0

2-1

115.3

Oregon St.

0-0

1-1

112.6

Washington

0-0

1-2

112.0

Southern Cal

0-0

3-0

109.9

U C L A

0-1

1-2

106.5

Arizona St.

0-0

2-1

100.5

Wash. St.

0-0

1-2

89.5

 

Southeastern Conference

East Division

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

South Carolina

1-0

3-0

122.5

Florida

1-0

3-0

119.7

Georgia

0-2

1-2

115.5

Kentucky

0-0

3-0

104.1

Tennessee

0-1

1-2

101.8

Vanderbilt

1-1

1-2

96.3

 

 

 

 

West Division

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Alabama

0-0

3-0

130.2

Arkansas

1-0

3-0

125.1

Auburn

1-0

3-0

117.1

L S U

2-0

3-0

116.9

Mississippi State

0-2

1-2

109.9

Ole Miss

0-1

1-2

101.4

 

Sunbelt Conference

 

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Troy

0-0

1-2

87.6

Middle Tennessee

0-0

1-2

85.9

U. of Louisiana

1-0

1-1

81.4

North Texas

0-0

0-3

81.4

Florida International

0-0

0-2

80.4

Florida Atlantic

0-0

1-1

80.2

Arkansas State

1-1

1-2

78.4

Louisiana-Monroe

0-1

0-2

75.6

Western Kentucky

0-0

0-3

72.5

 

Western Athletic Conference

 

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Boise State

0-0

2-0

124.8

Nevada

0-0

3-0

107.5

Fresno State

0-0

2-0

102.5

Utah State

0-0

1-2

97.1

Idaho

0-0

2-1

93.0

Louisiana Tech

0-0

1-2

93.0

Hawaii

0-0

1-2

86.3

San Jose State

0-0

1-2

83.4

New Mexico State

0-0

0-2

75.0

 

This Week’s Games–PiRate Ratings

Home Team Advantage Added (2-5 points)

 

 

Thursday, September 23

 

 

 

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Score

Miami-Fla

PITTSBURGH

7.0

31-24

 

 

 

 

Friday, September 24

 

 

 

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Score

T c u

S M U

30.7

45-14

 

 

 

 

Saturday, September 25

 

 

 

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Score

NORTHWESTERN

Central Michigan

9.1

28-19

PURDUE

Toledo

18.2

42-24

MICHIGAN

Bowling Green

32.0

49-17

IOWA

Ball State

44.1

47-3

OHIO STATE

Eastern Michigan

59.6

63-3

Virginia Tech

BOSTON COLLEGE

5.3

21-16

PENN STATE

Temple

20.2

30-10

GEORGIA TECH

North Carolina State

21.7

38-16

FLORIDA STATE

Wake Forest

19.7

48-28

DUKE

Army

12.5

30-17

CONNECTICUT

Buffalo

31.1

45-14

Georgia

MISSISSIPPI STATE

2.6

24-21

OLE MISS

Fresno State

1.9

26-24

KANSAS

New Mexico State

27.8

42-14

MISSOURI

Miami-Ohio

25.3

35-10

Air Force

WYOMING

9.0

37-28

KANSAS STATE

Central Florida

6.7

24-17

HOUSTON

Tulane

33.8

54-20

Oklahoma

CINCINNATI (P.Brown Sta)

16.7

38-21

Alabama

ARKANSAS

2.1

24-22

BOISE STATE

Oregon State

15.2

35-20

Stanford

NOTRE DAME

9.8

34-24

ARIZONA

California

6.2

30-24

TEXAS

U c l a

17.0

31-14

Idaho

COLORADO STATE

7.8

35-27

Nevada

B Y U

3.1

34-31

Southern Cal

WASHINGTON STATE

17.4

34-17

FLORIDA

Kentucky

19.6

37-17

LOUISIANA TECH

Southern Miss

2.7

34-31

TENNESSEE

U a b

17.4

30-13

INDIANA

Akron

20.5

35-14

MARSHALL

Ohio U

7.3

28-21

South Carolina

AUBURN

2.4

24-22

UTAH

San Jose State

27.1

44-17

SAN DIEGO STATE

Utah State

1.3

31-30

L S U

West Virginia

8.9

23-14

Baylor

RICE

13.7

38-24

North Carolina

RUTGERS

19.9

37-17

MINNESOTA

Northern Illinois

12.0

35-23

UTEP

Memphis

9.0

37-28

U N L V

New Mexico

17.9

35-17

Oregon

ARIZONA STATE

26.6

37-10

TROY

Arkansas State

12.2

31-19

Middle Tennessee

UL-LAFAYETTE

2.0

26-24

FLORIDA ATLANTIC

North Texas

1.8

30-28

SOUTH FLORIDA

Western Kentucky

36.2

49-13

MARYLAND

Florida International

19.4

35-16

 

This Week’s Games–Mean & Biased Ratings

 

 

 

 

Thursday, September 23

 

 

 

Favorite

Underdog

Mean

Biased

PITTSBURGH

Miami-Fla

25-24

20-28

 

 

 

 

Friday, September 24

 

 

 

Favorite

Underdog

Mean

Biased

T c u

S M U

41-24

44-17

 

 

 

 

Saturday, September 25

 

 

 

Favorite

Underdog

Mean

Biased

NORTHWESTERN

Central Michigan

28-23

27-13

PURDUE

Toledo

31-23

31-27

MICHIGAN

Bowling Green

44-28

45-24

IOWA

Ball State

35-7

41-6

OHIO STATE

Eastern Michigan

51-7

56-0

Virginia Tech

BOSTON COLLEGE

24-20

23-21

PENN STATE

Temple

24-13

24-10

GEORGIA TECH

North Carolina State

34-27

31-26

FLORIDA STATE

Wake Forest

40-28

42-27

DUKE

Army

35-26

31-21

CONNECTICUT

Buffalo

28-13

30-14

Georgia

MISSISSIPPI STATE

24-22

24-20

Fresno State

OLE MISS

30-24

31-17

KANSAS

New Mexico State

34-10

30-17

MISSOURI

Miami-Ohio

34-17

34-17

Air Force

WYOMING

35-21

31-21

KANSAS STATE

Central Florida

20-14

20-16

HOUSTON

Tulane

43-20

54-13

Oklahoma

CINCINNATI (P.Brown Sta)

30-17

38-16

Alabama

ARKANSAS

23-14

28-13

BOISE STATE

Oregon State

37-21

42-21

Stanford

NOTRE DAME

35-24

38-24

ARIZONA

California

35-26

41-31

TEXAS

U c l a

27-7

28-6

Idaho

COLORADO STATE

31-18

33-17

Nevada

B Y U

40-34

45-27

Southern Cal

WASHINGTON STATE

31-7

34-10

FLORIDA

Kentucky

34-17

34-17

Southern Miss

LOUISIANA TECH

34-27

32-24

TENNESSEE

U a b

30-14

30-10

INDIANA

Akron

38-16

41-17

MARSHALL

Ohio U

27-24

27-25

AUBURN

South Carolina

24-24 to ot

23-27

UTAH

San Jose State

37-10

38-12

SAN DIEGO STATE

Utah State

35-30

35-21

L S U

West Virginia

24-12

24-17

Baylor

RICE

35-27

38-20

North Carolina

RUTGERS

24-22

24-14

MINNESOTA

Northern Illinois

29-21

24-25

UTEP

Memphis

31-23

37-24

U N L V

New Mexico

35-27

33-20

Oregon

ARIZONA STATE

35-20

34-14

TROY

Arkansas State

35-23

30-16

Middle Tennessee

UL-LAFAYETTE

28-27

24-28

FLORIDA ATLANTIC

North Texas

31-17

31-16

SOUTH FLORIDA

Western Kentucky

38-12

35-10

MARYLAND

Florida International

27-14

24-17

 

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