2010 PiRate Ratings NFL Preseason Ratings & Predictions

PiRate Ratings 2010 NFL Preseason Ratings & Predictions

 

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The 2010 edition of the NFL PiRate Ratings makes its debut today, and we have tweaked the ratings just a bit this season.  Every year, we evaluate every team’s ability to run the ball, pass the ball, defend the run, defend the pass, and all the special teams play.

 

Breaking down the run, we look at the offensive blocking for the run, the ability of the team to run up the gut and pick up two yards on 3rd & two, the ability to get outside and pick up a lot of yards, and so forth.  To us, it is more important to know the situation of each running play rather than the raw average.  If a team has a 1st & Ten at its own 20 yard line and runs the ball five consecutive times for eight, ten, four, two, and two yards, that team has averaged 5.2 yards per rush, but that team must now punt on 4th & two at their 46 yard line.

 

If that same team starts at its 20 yard line and runs the ball five consecutive times for four yards on every play, that team has averaged just four yards per rush, but they now have a 3rd & two—a much better proposition than 4th & two.

 

We break down the pass in a similar way.  We look at pass protection, passer ability, and pass receiving ability.  Passing percentage matters very little (virtually nothing).  Yardage gained and maintaining possession of the ball are all that matters.    

 

Of course, for every offensive action, there is a corresponding defensive action that we rate.  This year, we have given a little more weight to pass rush over pass coverage.  Sacks and hurries are becoming more influential in today’s short passing game offenses.  If you look at a typical game today, 80% of the passes thrown in the NFL are thrown to receivers/backs less than 10 yards pass the line of scrimmage.  The three and five-step drop have displaced the seven-step drop and longer passes.  Most longer passes today are of the play-action variety.  Of course, the 3rd & 20 situation still leads to the longer pass plays. 

 

With so many shorter passing routes against two-deep coverage, the pass rush deserves a little more weight at the expense of the pass coverage.  We are not talking about a major shift; this is more like a fraction of points, or what we call moving the minute hand on our watch by a minute to synchronize it with Coordinated Universal Time.

 

For those of you who are new to the PiRate Ratings, these ratings are only good for the current week’s games.  Since the season actually does not begin for a couple weeks, we may tweak them in the next 10-12 days once all cuts and late free-agent pickups are made. 

 

Additionally, we advise you not to use our raw ratings to pick games.  We offer picks against the spread at our sister site, www.piratings.webs.com, and we NEVER use the raw ratings.  If every scheduled game was played 100 times, then the ratings would be quite accurate.  We look at several variables and intangibles in addition to the pointspread to analyze each game and try to find a favorable angle that “gives” us an extra point or two.

 

You will see three ratings for each team: The PiRate, The Mean, and The Bias Rating.  Each rating is based on 100 being level par.  If a team has a rating of 103.7, then consider that team 3.7 points better than average. 

 

The PiRate is the raw score we give each team based on all the variables we discussed above (running, passing, etc.).  The Mean Rating is a separate rating of 12 variables that we have used since 1979.  It is purely statistical based on many of the same variables used for the PiRate Rating.  We take the exact average of those 12 variables and use a constant and a multiplier to produce a par of 100.  The Bias Rating takes those same 12 variables and gives each rating a different weight in the formula.  All three ratings have been quite accurate through the years. 

 

Here are the preseason ratings for the 32 teams.  Each week, the teams will be ranked by division in order of PiRate Rating.  We do not calculate an average of these three ratings, but you can if you want to. 

Initial Regular Season NFL PiRate Ratings
NFC East	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Dallas	104.5	106.3	106.9	0-0-0	0	0
Philadelphia	101.7	104.1	98.7	0-0-0	0	0
New York Giants	100.0	99.9	102.3	0-0-0	0	0
Washington	98.3	96.1	95.8	0-0-0	0	0
NFC North	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Minnesota	104.8	108.0	107.9	0-0-0	0	0
Green Bay	104.1	106.7	105.7	0-0-0	0	0
Chicago	100.5	97.3	98.9	0-0-0	0	0
Detroit	92.1	88.1	89.4	0-0-0	0	0
NFC South	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
New Orleans	105.2	109.8	106.6	0-0-0	0	0
Atlanta	104.7	103.5	104.6	0-0-0	0	0
Carolina	101.6	103.6	100.4	0-0-0	0	0
Tampa Bay	94.3	94.5	92.3	0-0-0	0	0
NFC West	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
San Francisco	101.6	100.8	102.2	0-0-0	0	0
Arizona	98.5	100.3	99.1	0-0-0	0	0
Seattle	92.2	91.1	94.8	0-0-0	0	0
St. Louis	90.1	85.9	87.3	0-0-0	0	0
AFC East	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
NY Jets	107.3	106.3	106.2	0-0-0	0	0
New England	105.7	106.5	105.4	0-0-0	0	0
Miami	101.1	100.4	100.8	0-0-0	0	0
Buffalo	97.6	97.4	95.9	0-0-0	0	0
AFC North	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Baltimore	105.6	106.3	106.5	0-0-0	0	0
Pittsburgh	100.9	102.2	101.8	0-0-0	0	0
Cincinnati	100.3	100.0	99.4	0-0-0	0	0
Cleveland	97.3	93.2	93.2	0-0-0	0	0
AFC South	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Indianapolis	104.9	106.8	107.1	0-0-0	0	0
Houston	102.0	101.9	101.9	0-0-0	0	0
Tennessee	97.9	99.3	101.2	0-0-0	0	0
Jacksonville	96.3	94.8	97.0	0-0-0	0	0
AFC West	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
San Diego	102.5	106.0	104.6	0-0-0	0	0
Denver	96.6	99.3	98.5	0-0-0	0	0
Kansas City	95.7	92.3	94.5	0-0-0	0	0
Oakland	94.2	91.4	92.8	0-0-0	0	0

 

The following predictions are not based on the above ratings.  Remember, these ratings are not usable to select future games.  They are not even 100% affected by the scores of each week’s games.  For instance, San Diego would be considered a 6.8-point favorite in the PiRate Ratings over Kansas City in a neutral-site game (before intangibles and other variables).  Even if San Diego won 24-17, their PiRate rating would be adjusted based on how they won by a touchdown.  Suppose the Chiefs led 17-10 with five minutes to go in the game and had a 100-yard advantage, and the Chargers blocked two punts and recovered them in the end zone for touchdowns.  Or, what if the Chargers led 24-3 after three quarters but then lost their three linebackers to season-ending injuries?  The ratings would change drastically depending on how this 24-17 score occurred.

These predictions are our own personal opinions on how we think the season will pan out.  Take them for what it is worth.

NFC East	W	–	L		AFC East	W	–	L
Dallas	10	–	6		New England	10	–	6
New York	9	–	7		Miami	10	–	6
Philadelphia	7	–	9		New York	9	–	7
Washington	6	–	10		Buffalo	4	–	12
NFC South	W	–	L		AFC South	W	–	L
New Orleans	13	–	3		Indianapolis	12	–	4
Atlanta	10	–	6		Tennessee	9	–	7
Carolina	7	–	9		Houston	8	–	8
Tampa Bay	4	–	12		Jacksonville	5	–	11
NFC North	W	–	L		AFC North	W	–	L
Green Bay	12	–	4		Baltimore	13	–	3
Chicago	9	–	7		Pittsburgh	9	–	7
Minnesota	9	–	7		Cincinnati	8	–	8
Detroit	5	–	11		Cleveland	3	–	13
NFC West	W	–	L		AFC West	W	–	L
San Francisco	9	–	7		San Diego	10	–	6
Arizona	7	–	9		Oakland	7	–	9
Seattle	6	–	10		Denver	7	–	9
St. Louis	3	–	13		Kansas City	6	–	10
Wildcard Playoffs					Wildcard Playoffs
San Diego over Tennessee					Dallas over Chicago
Miami over New England					Atlanta over San Francisco
Divisional Playoffs					Divisional Playoffs
Baltimore over Miami					New Orleans over Atlanta
San Diego over Indianapolis					Green Bay over Dallas
AFC Championship					NFC Championship
Baltimore over San Diego					Green Bay over New Orleans
Super Bowl
Baltimore over Green Bay