Saturday’s Regional Finals
Advanced Level Bracketnomics
Thursday night’s regional semifinal games proved that the PiRate NCAA Tournament formula is based on sound principles. The teams that earned the most scoring opportunities won the games, even though they didn’t all shoot better from the field or at the charity stripe.
By more scoring opportunities, we refer to the team that fares better in controlling the boards and in turnovers. As we have previously stated, a turnover created is worth a little more than a rebound, and a steal is worth more than any other turnover.
Butler stole the ball 13 times and ended with a +11 turnover margin against Syracuse. The Orangemen won the battle of the boards by six, but that left the Bulldogs with a huge R+T advantage.
West Virginia dominated Washington on the glass, winning the rebounding margin by 16. They won the turnover battle in almost a wash, and when a team has a +16 rebounding advantage with equalization in turnovers, they win about 98% of the time.
Kansas State and Xavier played possibly the best game in the entire tournament so far. The Wildcats were outrebounded by two but had a +4 turnover margin. They only picked up four steals, so they enjoyed only a marginal scoring opportunity advantage. Thus, you had a terrific, nail-biter.
Kentucky dominated Cornell in the R+T rating, and the Wildcats proved that 3-point and free throw shooting isn’t as important as number of scoring opportunities when you make it this far. UK made just 2 of 16 from behind the arc and hit just 16 of 26 from the foul line.
Here is the PiRate preview for Saturday’s two regional final games. We will preview Sunday’s games tomorrow.
East Regional
#1 Kentucky (29.22) vs. #2 West Virginia (29.08)
Look at those criteria scores. 14/100’s of a point converts to less than a one-point edge for the Wildcats.
Yes friends, this is going to be a great game between teams that should be playing each other every year.
We see three keys to this game. First, will West Virginia be able to get the ball inside against Kentucky’s inside defenders and force fouls from DeMarcus Cousins and Daniel Orton? Second, will Kentucky’s perimeter shooters, John Wall, Eric Bledsoe, and even big man Patrick Patterson, be able to force WVU to play honest defense and lesson their ability to cheat inside? Third, and maybe most importantly, will West Virginia’s forwards, Da’Sean Butler, Kevin Jones, and Devin Ebanks be able to match Cousins, Orton, and Patterson on the glass?
Kentucky had been hitting well from outside prior to the Cornell game. They got the open shots and couldn’t sink them. If they repeat that performance, Wall, Cousins, Patterson, and Bledsoe may be multi-millionaires before they take another shot in an official game.
West Virginia is used to winning games where they shoot around 40%. Kentucky has done it too. This game is going to come down to the inside muscle game. The team with the most offensive put backs is going to win. If Cousins stays out of foul trouble, he will see to it that the blue and white win that battle.
We expect WVU to slow down the pace and attack inside-out. 60 points could be enough to win it; we believe the Blue Mist will have one second-half spurt to sew this game up.
Prediction: Kentucky 62 West Virginia 55
West Regional
#2 Kansas State (31.21) vs. #5 Butler (19.35)
Kansas State just barely survived and advanced Thursday night, and they could be in line to bounce somewhat. Butler is in the same situation; they had a draining game with Syracuse. We look for this one to be sloppy and low-scoring with defense being at a premium.
It’s hard to pick against a team that last lost prior to Christmas and plays about as well as a team as the best Indiana teams under Bob Knight.
There are a couple of important keys in this game. The only way Butler can win is to force more turnovers again like they did against Syracuse. Kansas State will make their share of mistakes, but they make a lot of them in the commission of trying to run and get easy baskets. We don’t think the Bulldogs will get to exploit this part of the game.
The other key is the Kansas State inside game. KSU has too many horses inside for BU. The Bulldogs will wear down inside against the Wildcats quartet of big men. Jamar Samuels, Curtis Kelly, Dominique Sutton, and Luis Colon will combine for about 100 minutes of playing time in this game, and they will combine for 25 rebounds or more. Butler just doesn’t have enough inside to match that. Post man Matt Howard is foul prone, and he is likely to miss a good chunk of this game trying to prevent KSU’s big men from getting offensive rebounds and second chance points.
What’s tough here is that Kansas State’s top scorers are their two perimeter stars. Jacob Pullen and Denis Clemente usually combine for 35 points per game, and if they top 30 in this game, the Wildcats will be headed to the Final Four for the first time since Tex Winter and his triple post (since renamed triangle) offense knocked off defending national champion Texas Western and Wichita State to advance against undefeated UCLA in 1964.
Prediction: Kansas State 64 Butler 54
Check back with us Saturday afternoon for a preview of Sunday’s Elite 8 South and Midwest Regional Final games.
The Pi-Rate Ratings 