The Pi-Rate Ratings

March 9, 2010

March Madness Update–Tuesday, March 9, 2010

A Look At The Big Six Conference Tournaments

 

All Times Given Are Eastern Time

Atlantic Coast Conference

Site: Greensboro Coliseum, Greensboro, NC

Dates: March 11-14

Opening Round

Thursday, March 11

G1 #8 Boston College (15-15) vs. #9 Virginia (14-15)  12 Noon

G2 #5 Wake Forest (19-9) vs. #12 Miami (Fla) (18-12) 2 PM

G3 #7 Georgia Tech (19-11) vs. #10 North Carolina (16-15) 7 PM

G4 #6 Clemson (21-9) vs. #11 North Carolina St. (17-14) 9 PM

Quarterfinals

Friday, March 12

G5 #1 Duke (26-5) vs. Game 1 Winner 12 Noon

G6 #4 Virginia Tech (23-7) vs. Game 2 Winner 2 PM

G7 #2 Maryland (23-7) vs. Game 3 Winner 7 PM

G8 #3 Florida State (22-8) vs. Game 4 Winner 9 PM

Semifinals

Saturday, March 13

Game 5 Winner vs. Game 6 Winner 12:30 PM

Game 7 Winner vs. Game 8 Winner 2:30 PM

Championship Game

Sunday, March 14

Semifinal Winners 1 PM

Maryland doesn’t strike us as a team that can get to the title game, even though the Terps have the best talent.  We like Clemson to sneak through the brackets and become Duke’s opposition for the ACC Championship.

You cannot ignore North Carolina.  They could get to the semifinals without much extra from what they’ve done this year.  If they play just a little more intelligently, they could get a third chance at Duke.  However, we’re sticking with Clemson to play Duke.

Big East Conference

Site: Madison Square Garden, New York City

Dates: March 9-13

Opening Round

Tuesday, March 9

G1 #9 South Florida (19-11) vs. #16 DePaul (8-22) 12 Noon

G2 #12 Connecticut (17-14) vs. #13 St. John’s (16-14) 2 PM

G3 #10 Seton Hall (18-11) vs. #15 Providence (12-18) 7 PM

G4 #11 Cincinnati (16-14) vs. #14 Rutgers (15-16) 9 PM

Second Round

Wednesday, March 10

G5 #8 Georgetown (20-9) vs. Game 1 Winner 12 Noon

G6 #5 Marquette (20-10) vs. Game 2 Winner 2 PM

G7 #7 Notre Dame (21-10) vs. Game 3 Winner 7 PM

G8 #6 Louisville (20-11) vs. Game 4 Winner 9 PM

Quarterfinals

Thursday, March 11

G9 #1 Syracuse (28-3) vs. Game 5 Winner 12 Noon

G10 #4 Villanova (24-6) vs. Game 6 Winner 2 PM

G11 #2 Pittsburgh (24-7) vs. Game 7 Winner 7 PM

G12 #3 West Virginia (24-6) vs. Game 8 Winner 9 PM

Semifinals

Friday, March 12

Game 9 Winner vs. Game 10 Winner 7 PM

Game 11 Winner vs. Game 12 Winner 9 PM

Championship Game

Saturday, March 13

Semifinal Winners 9 PM

It’s impossible for a team to win five games in five days, so don’t count on any of the bottom seeds making it to Saturday night.  West Virginia has the power and intensity to win this tournament, and their possible semifinal match with Pittsburgh would be the best game in the tournament.  Villanova is much like Texas; they have the talent, but they aren’t putting it together on the floor.

Louisville’s finish over Syracuse gives the Cards momentum.  We just don’t think they can take out the Mountaineers in the quarterfinals.  The one team that can advance continually might be Marquette.  Still, we look for a Syracuse-West Virginia title game.

Big 12 Conference Tournament

Site: Sprint Center, Kansas City

Dates: March 10-13

Opening Round

Wednesday, March 10

G1 #8 Colorado (15-15) vs. #9 Texas Tech (16-14) 12:30 PM

G2 #5 Missouri (22-9) vs. #12 Nebraska (14-17) 3 PM

G3 #7 Oklahoma State (21-9) vs. #10 Oklahoma (13-17) 7 PM

G4 #6 Texas (23-8) vs. #11 Iowa State (15-16) 9:30 PM

Quarterfinals

Thursday, March 11

G5 #1 Kansas (29-2) vs. Game 1 Winner 12:30 PM

G6 #4 Texas A&M (22-8) vs. Game 2 Winner 3 PM

G7 #2 Kansas State (24-6) vs. Game 3 Winner 7 PM

G8 #3 Baylor (24-6) vs. Game 4 Winner 9:30 PM

Semifinals

Friday, March 12

Game 5 Winner vs. Game 6 Winner 7 PM

Game 7 Winner vs. Game 8 Winner 9:30 PM

Championship

Saturday, March 13

Semifinal Winners 6 PM

Kansas needs to prove it is the best team in the land, and we see the Jayhawks waltzing through this tournament with little opposition.  Missouri is the one team capable of knocking them out, but they are a year away from being really good.

Texas appears to be spent, and we don’t think the Longhorns will put it together—this week.

Big Ten Conference Tournament

Site: Conseco Fieldhouse, Indianapolis

Dates: March 11-14

Opening Round

Thursday, March 11

G1 #8 Michigan (14-16) vs. #9 Iowa (10-21) 2:30 PM

G2 #7 Northwestern (19-12) vs. #10 Indiana (10-20) 5 PM

G3 #6 Minnesota (18-12) vs. #11 Penn State (11-19) 7:30 PM

Quarterfinals

Friday, March 12

G4 #1 Ohio State (24-7) vs. Game 1 Winner 12 Noon

G5 #4 Wisconsin (23-7) vs. #5 Illinois 2:30 PM

G6 #2 Purdue (26-4) vs. Game 2 Winner 6:30 PM

G7 #3 Michigan State (24-7) vs. Game 3 Winner 9 PM

Semifinals

Saturday, March 13

Game 4 Winner vs. Game 5 Winner 1:40 PM

Game 6 Winner vs. Game 7 Winner 4:10 PM

Championship

Sunday, March 14

Semifinal Winners 3:30 PM

This should be the most competitive of the big tournaments.  Any of the top four seeds could win this; it will depend on which one can play the best for three days.  Purdue is the one team vulnerable to an upset in the quarterfinals, but Illinois beating Wisconsin wouldn’t be an upset.  That’s a tossup game after the Badgers won Sunday.

Pac-10 Tournament

Site: Staples Center, Los Angeles

Date: March 10-13

Opening Round

Wednesday, March 10

G1 #8 Oregon (15-15) vs. #9 Washington State (16-14) 11 PM

Quarterfinals

Thursday, March 11

G2 #4 Arizona (16-14) vs. #5 UCLA (13-17) 3 PM

G3 #1 California (21-9) vs. Game 1 Winner 5:30 PM

G4 #3 Washington (21-9) vs. #6 Oregon State (14-16) 9 PM

G5 #2 Arizona State (22-9) vs. #7 Stanford (13-17) 11:30 PM

Semifinals

Friday, March 12

Game 2 Winner vs. Game 3 Winner 9 PM

Game 4 Winner vs. Game 5 Winner 11:30 PM

Championship

Saturday, March 13

Semifinal Winners 6:15 PM

The most important part of this tournament is the play of Arizona State.  The Sun Devils are in the Big Dance if they defeat Stanford Thursday night.  A loss to the Cardinal puts them in the middle of the Bubble.  With St. Mary’s reducing the available bubble invitations by one, ASU better win.

As far as the rest of this tournament goes, Washington could be the team to watch.  The Huskies underperformed all year, and they get their second chance to prove they belong in the Field of 65.

Cal is not a big favorite.  The Bears are one of the weakest regular season Pac-10 champions in years, probably since 1985.

Southeastern Conference Tournament

Site: Bridgestone Arena, Nashville

Dates: March 11-14

Opening Round

Thursday, March 11

G1 W4 Alabama (16-14) vs. E5 South Carolina (15-15) 1 PM

G2 E3 Tennessee (23-7) vs. W6 L S U (11-19) 3:15 PM

G3 E4 Florida (20-11) vs. W5 Auburn (15-16) 7:30 PM

G4 W3 Arkansas (14-17) vs. E6 Georgia (13-16) 9:45 PM

Quarterfinals

Friday, March 12

G5 E1 Kentucky (29-2) vs. Game 1 Winner 1 PM

G6 W2 Ole Miss (21-9) vs. Game 2 Winner 3:15 PM

G7 W1 Mississippi State (21-10) vs. Game 3 Winner 7:30 PM

G8 E2 Vanderbilt (23-7) vs. Game 4 Winner 9:45 PM

Semifinals

Saturday, March 13

Game 5 Winner vs. Game 6 Winner 1 PM

Game 7 Winner vs. Game 8 Winner 3:15 PM

Championship

Sunday, March 14

Semifinal Winners 1 PM

Kentucky isn’t a 40-minute team.  However, when they play well for 30 minutes, they are just about unbeatable.  The Wildcats can sweep through this tournament with 25-28 minutes of playing to their potential.

Florida and Ole Miss must get to Saturday to be on the safe part of the bubble.  That would mean Ole Miss would probably have beaten Tennessee while Florida would have eliminated Mississippi State.  The Bulldogs might need to win the tournament, even though they are the number one seed in the West Division. 

Tennessee and Vanderbilt have not done well in this tournament in years.  The Vols have reached the final round a few times and even won it back in 1979, but Vanderbilt has never reached the finals much less won it since its renewal in 1979.  Their lone tournament win came in 1951.  This is the year where they have the talent to make it to Sunday for a third try at Kentucky, but the Commodores never seem to have any gas left in the tank when this tournament commences.

If any team from the back of the pack challenges, it could be Georgia.  The Bulldogs were good enough to compete with Kentucky at Rupp Arena and blew out Tennessee and Vanderbilt.  If they get by Arkansas Thursday, it wouldn’t be a shock if they could upset Vanderbilt and give either Mississippi State or Florida a great game on Saturday.  A Georgia-Kentucky title game would be something worth watching.

We tend to believe Kentucky will face Florida for the title on Sunday.

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