Week 16 NFL Preview
It’s crunch time in the NFL, so there’s no need to begin with some flashy witticism or catch phrase. Let’s just dig right in with what is important—the playoffs.
In the NFC, New Orleans has clinched a first-round bye and needs only a win or tie or a Viking loss or tie to clinch homefield advantage throughout the playoffs. They will be the number one seed.
Minnesota has clinched the North, while Arizona has clinched the West. Philadelphia clinches the East with one more win and a Dallas loss or tie, or of course, two wins.
The Wildcard race is not much of a nail-biter, as only three teams are left to compete for the two spots. Green Bay and Dallas, both at 9-5, hold a one-game lead over the Giants. 7-7 Atlanta has been eliminated.
Dallas closes at Washington and at home with Philadelphia. If the Redskins can upset their rival this weekend, the Cowboys could wind up the odd team out. The Giants finish at home against Carolina and at Minnesota, and if they split those games, they hold the tiebreaker over Dallas.
Green Bay should clinch a playoff spot this weekend when they host Seattle. The Packers finish at Arizona.
The AFC is a little more muddled than the NFC. Indianapolis is the number one seed and gets homefield advantage through the playoffs. San Diego has clinched the West. Cincinnati needs one more win or one Baltimore loss to clinch the North, while New England is one win or one Miami loss away from clinching the East (The Jets cannot win the division).
Denver and Baltimore, both at 8-6, hold a one-game lead over six other teams (Miami, NY Jets, Houston, Jacksonville, Tennessee, and Pittsburgh.) Obviously if just two teams finish 9-7, those teams will be the Wildcards. That’s not going to happen.
Denver closes at Philadelphia and at home against Kansas City. The won’t lose to the Chiefs, so they will be at least 9-7. Baltimore has a slightly harder road, as they finish on the road at Pittsburgh and the surging Raiders. The Ravens should win at least one of these games to finish 9-7.
Miami finishes at home against Houston and Pittsburgh, and these will be playoff eliminators. The Jets have a difficult closing schedule at Indianapolis and at home with Cincinnati. We don’t see them finishing 9-7.
Tennessee hosts San Diego on Christmas night and finishes at Seattle. The Titans and Chargers are the two best current AFC teams after Indy, and it should be a great game. If the Titans win and then knock off lowly Seattle, they will have done the unthinkable and finished 9-7 after starting 0-6. Jacksonville has a tough game at New England and finishes at home with Cleveland. We see 8-8 in their future.
In the end, we believe Baltimore and Denver will hold on to take the two Wildcard spots.
If this scenario holds out, here’s how the first round would look January 9 and 10.
NFC
#6 Dallas at #3 Philadelphia
#5 Green Bay at #4 Arizona
AFC
#6 Denver at #3 New England
#5 Baltimore at #4 Cincinnati
We would go with Philadelphia, Green Bay, New England, and Baltimore to win those games, setting up this scenario the following week.
NFC
#5 Green Bay at #1 New Orleans
#3 Philadelphia at #2 Minnesota
AFC
#5 Baltimore at #1 Indianapolis
#3 New England at #2 San Diego
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Current NFL PiRate Ratings |
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NFC East |
PiRate | Mean | Biased | W-L-T | Pts | Opp | ||
| Philadelphia | 107.0 | 106.8 | 107.3 | 10-4-0 | 399 | 286 | ||
| Dallas | 104.3 | 104.3 | 106.2 | 9-5-0 | 320 | 250 | ||
| New York Giants | 104.1 | 102.8 | 103.5 | 8-6-0 | 386 | 342 | ||
| Washington | 96.0 | 97.3 | 94.2 | 4-10-0 | 246 | 296 | ||
| NFC North | PiRate | Mean | Biased | W-L-T | Pts | Opp | ||
| Minnesota | 106.3 | 105.7 | 106.9 | 11-3-0 | 396 | 269 | ||
| Green Bay | 103.7 | 104.4 | 106.1 | 9-5-0 | 380 | 280 | ||
| Chicago | 94.0 | 95.6 | 93.4 | 5-9-0 | 254 | 322 | ||
| Detroit | 88.8 | 88.1 | 86.1 | 2-12-0 | 233 | 437 | ||
| NFC South | PiRate | Mean | Biased | W-L-T | Pts | Opp | ||
| New Orleans | 110.8 | 109.5 | 108.6 | 13-1-0 | 483 | 298 | ||
| Carolina | 101.7 | 99.8 | 98.8 | 6-8-0 | 251 | 289 | ||
| Atlanta | 101.2 | 100.7 | 101.9 | 7-7-0 | 312 | 312 | ||
| Tampa Bay | 92.3 | 93.1 | 91.4 | 2-12-0 | 214 | 363 | ||
| NFC West | PiRate | Mean | Biased | W-L-T | Pts | Opp | ||
| Arizona | 103.1 | 102.3 | 103.8 | 9-5-0 | 337 | 282 | ||
| San Francisco | 100.0 | 101.0 | 98.1 | 6-8-0 | 282 | 269 | ||
| Seattle | 89.7 | 92.9 | 92.0 | 5-9-0 | 257 | 325 | ||
| St. Louis | 86.9 | 87.9 | 84.5 | 1-13-0 | 159 | 377 | ||
| AFC East | PiRate | Mean | Biased | W-L-T | Pts | Opp | ||
| New England | 107.5 | 107.3 | 106.9 | 9-5-0 | 365 | 244 | ||
| NY Jets | 101.8 | 102.8 | 102.4 | 7-7-0 | 282 | 221 | ||
| Miami | 100.5 | 100.7 | 101.7 | 7-7-0 | 316 | 333 | ||
| Buffalo | 96.3 | 96.9 | 95.9 | 5-9-0 | 225 | 288 | ||
| AFC North | PiRate | Mean | Biased | W-L-T | Pts | Opp | ||
| Baltimore | 110.7 | 106.3 | 107.3 | 8-6-0 | 350 | 225 | ||
| Pittsburgh | 101.9 | 100.3 | 101.9 | 7-7-0 | 315 | 280 | ||
| Cincinnati | 101.8 | 101.4 | 102.7 | 9-5-0 | 288 | 244 | ||
| Cleveland | 92.6 | 92.5 | 91.9 | 3-11-0 | 199 | 349 | ||
| AFC South | PiRate | Mean | Biased | W-L-T | Pts | Opp | ||
| Indianapolis | 109.9 | 107.8 | 109.2 | 14-0-0 | 394 | 248 | ||
| Tennessee | 103.4 | 101.7 | 104.3 | 7-7-0 | 320 | 347 | ||
| Houston | 101.1 | 101.5 | 101.4 | 7-7-0 | 327 | 286 | ||
| Jacksonville | 95.5 | 97.9 | 100.2 | 7-7-0 | 266 | 322 | ||
| AFC West | PiRate | Mean | Biased | W-L-T | Pts | Opp | ||
| San Diego | 107.7 | 106.2 | 107.3 | 11-3-0 | 389 | 283 | ||
| Denver | 97.7 | 101.0 | 102.4 | 8-6-0 | 275 | 250 | ||
| Oakland | 93.7 | 92.7 | 94.0 | 5-9-0 | 175 | 335 | ||
| Kansas City | 87.2 | 90.8 | 87.5 | 3-11-0 | 240 | 383 | ||
| This Week’s Games | ||||||
| Home Team in CAPS | (N) Denotes Neutral Site | |||||
| HFA for Week 16 = 2.5 | ||||||
| Vegas Line as of 12:30PM EDT Tuesday | ||||||
| Friday, December 25 | ||||||
| Favorite | Underdog | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Vegas | Totals |
| San Diego | TENNESSEE | 1.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | -3 | 47 |
| Sunday, December 27, 2009 | ||||||
| Favorite | Underdog | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Vegas | Totals |
| GREEN BAY | Seattle | 16.5 | 14.0 | 16.6 | 14 | 42 |
| CLEVELAND | Oakland | 1.4 | 2.3 | 0.4 | 3 1/2 | 38 |
| CINCINNATI | Kansas City | 17.1 | 13.1 | 17.7 | 13 1/2 | 40 1/2 |
| ATLANTA | Buffalo | 7.4 | 6.3 | 8.5 | 9 | 41 |
| MIAMI | Houston | 1.9 | 1.7 | 2.8 | 3 | 45 |
| NEW YORK GIANTS | Carolina | 4.9 | 5.5 | 7.2 | 7 | 42 |
| NEW ORLEANS | Tampa Bay | 21.0 | 18.9 | 19.7 | 14 | 49 |
| NEW ENGLAND | Jacksonville | 14.5 | 11.9 | 9.2 | 7 1/2 | 43 1/2 |
| Baltimore | PITTSBURGH | 6.3 | 3.5 | 2.9 | -2 1/2 | 41 |
| PHILADELPHIA | Denver | 11.8 | 8.3 | 7.4 | 7 | 41 1/2 |
| ARIZONA | St. Louis | 18.7 | 16.9 | 21.8 | 14 | 43 |
| SAN FRANCISCO | Detroit | 13.7 | 15.4 | 14.5 | 12 1/2 | 41 1/2 |
| INDIANAPOLIS | New York Jets | 10.6 | 7.5 | 9.3 | 5 | 40 1/2 |
| Dallas | WASHINGTON | 5.8 | 4.5 | 9.5 | 7 | 42 |
| Monday, December 28, 2009 | ||||||
| Favorite | Underdog | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Vegas | Totals |
| Minnesota | CHICAGO | 9.8 | 7.6 | 11.0 | 7 | 41 |
The Pi-Rate Ratings 