The Pi-Rate Ratings

December 22, 2009

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For NFL Week 16: December 25-28, 2009

Week 16 NFL Preview

 

It’s crunch time in the NFL, so there’s no need to begin with some flashy witticism or catch phrase.  Let’s just dig right in with what is important—the playoffs.

In the NFC, New Orleans has clinched a first-round bye and needs only a win or tie or a Viking loss or tie to clinch homefield advantage throughout the playoffs.  They will be the number one seed.

Minnesota has clinched the North, while Arizona has clinched the West.  Philadelphia clinches the East with one more win and a Dallas loss or tie, or of course, two wins.

The Wildcard race is not much of a nail-biter, as only three teams are left to compete for the two spots.  Green Bay and Dallas, both at 9-5, hold a one-game lead over the Giants.  7-7 Atlanta has been eliminated.

Dallas closes at Washington and at home with Philadelphia.  If the Redskins can upset their rival this weekend, the Cowboys could wind up the odd team out.  The Giants finish at home against Carolina and at Minnesota, and if they split those games, they hold the tiebreaker over Dallas. 

Green Bay should clinch a playoff spot this weekend when they host Seattle.  The Packers finish at Arizona.

The AFC is a little more muddled than the NFC.  Indianapolis is the number one seed and gets homefield advantage through the playoffs.  San Diego has clinched the West.  Cincinnati needs one more win or one Baltimore loss to clinch the North, while New England is one win or one Miami loss away from clinching the East (The Jets cannot win the division).

Denver and Baltimore, both at 8-6, hold a one-game lead over six other teams (Miami, NY Jets, Houston, Jacksonville, Tennessee, and Pittsburgh.)  Obviously if just two teams finish 9-7, those teams will be the Wildcards.  That’s not going to happen.

Denver closes at Philadelphia and at home against Kansas City.  The won’t lose to the Chiefs, so they will be at least 9-7.  Baltimore has a slightly harder road, as they finish on the road at Pittsburgh and the surging Raiders.  The Ravens should win at least one of these games to finish 9-7.

Miami finishes at home against Houston and Pittsburgh, and these will be playoff eliminators.  The Jets have a difficult closing schedule at Indianapolis and at home with Cincinnati.  We don’t see them finishing 9-7.

Tennessee hosts San Diego on Christmas night and finishes at Seattle.  The Titans and Chargers are the two best current AFC teams after Indy, and it should be a great game.  If the Titans win and then knock off lowly Seattle, they will have done the unthinkable and finished 9-7 after starting 0-6.  Jacksonville has a tough game at New England and finishes at home with Cleveland.  We see 8-8 in their future.

In the end, we believe Baltimore and Denver will hold on to take the two Wildcard spots.

If this scenario holds out, here’s how the first round would look January 9 and 10.

NFC

#6 Dallas at #3 Philadelphia

#5 Green Bay at #4 Arizona

 

AFC

#6 Denver at #3 New England

#5 Baltimore at #4 Cincinnati

 

We would go with Philadelphia, Green Bay, New England, and Baltimore to win those games, setting up this scenario the following week.

NFC

#5 Green Bay at #1 New Orleans

#3 Philadelphia at #2 Minnesota

 

AFC

#5 Baltimore at #1 Indianapolis

#3 New England at #2 San Diego

 

               

Current NFL PiRate Ratings

             
 

 

NFC East

PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Philadelphia  107.0 106.8 107.3 10-4-0 399 286
Dallas 104.3 104.3 106.2 9-5-0 320 250
New York Giants 104.1 102.8 103.5 8-6-0 386 342
Washington 96.0 97.3 94.2 4-10-0 246 296
               
NFC North PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Minnesota 106.3 105.7 106.9 11-3-0 396 269
Green Bay 103.7 104.4 106.1 9-5-0 380 280
Chicago 94.0 95.6 93.4 5-9-0 254 322
Detroit 88.8 88.1 86.1 2-12-0 233 437
               
NFC South PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
New Orleans 110.8 109.5 108.6 13-1-0 483 298
Carolina 101.7 99.8 98.8 6-8-0 251 289
Atlanta   101.2 100.7 101.9 7-7-0 312 312
Tampa Bay 92.3 93.1 91.4 2-12-0 214 363
               
NFC West PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Arizona 103.1 102.3 103.8 9-5-0 337 282
San Francisco 100.0 101.0 98.1 6-8-0 282 269
Seattle 89.7 92.9 92.0 5-9-0 257 325
St. Louis 86.9 87.9 84.5 1-13-0 159 377
               
AFC East PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
New England 107.5 107.3 106.9 9-5-0 365 244
NY Jets 101.8 102.8 102.4 7-7-0 282 221
Miami 100.5 100.7 101.7 7-7-0 316 333
Buffalo 96.3 96.9 95.9 5-9-0 225 288
               
AFC North PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Baltimore 110.7 106.3 107.3 8-6-0 350 225
Pittsburgh 101.9 100.3 101.9 7-7-0 315 280
Cincinnati 101.8 101.4 102.7 9-5-0 288 244
Cleveland 92.6 92.5 91.9 3-11-0 199 349
               
AFC South PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Indianapolis 109.9 107.8 109.2 14-0-0 394 248
Tennessee 103.4 101.7 104.3 7-7-0 320 347
Houston   101.1 101.5 101.4 7-7-0 327 286
Jacksonville 95.5 97.9 100.2 7-7-0 266 322
               
AFC West PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
San Diego 107.7 106.2 107.3 11-3-0 389 283
Denver 97.7 101.0 102.4 8-6-0 275 250
Oakland   93.7 92.7 94.0 5-9-0 175 335
Kansas City 87.2 90.8 87.5 3-11-0 240 383

 

This Week’s Games
Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site          
             
HFA for Week 16 = 2.5            
Vegas Line as of 12:30PM EDT Tuesday            
Friday, December 25            
Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vegas Totals
San Diego TENNESSEE 1.8 2.0 0.5 -3    47   
             
Sunday, December 27, 2009            
Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vegas Totals
GREEN BAY Seattle 16.5 14.0 16.6 14    42   
CLEVELAND Oakland 1.4 2.3 0.4 3 1/2 38   
CINCINNATI Kansas City 17.1 13.1 17.7 13 1/2 40 1/2
ATLANTA Buffalo 7.4 6.3 8.5 9    41   
MIAMI Houston 1.9 1.7 2.8 3    45   
NEW YORK GIANTS Carolina 4.9 5.5 7.2 7    42   
NEW ORLEANS Tampa Bay 21.0 18.9 19.7 14    49   
NEW ENGLAND Jacksonville 14.5 11.9 9.2 7 1/2 43 1/2
Baltimore PITTSBURGH 6.3 3.5 2.9 -2 1/2 41   
PHILADELPHIA Denver 11.8 8.3 7.4 7    41 1/2
ARIZONA St. Louis 18.7 16.9 21.8 14    43   
SAN FRANCISCO Detroit 13.7 15.4 14.5 12 1/2 41 1/2
INDIANAPOLIS New York Jets 10.6 7.5 9.3 5    40 1/2
Dallas WASHINGTON 5.8 4.5 9.5 7    42   
             
Monday, December 28, 2009            
Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vegas Totals
Minnesota CHICAGO 9.8 7.6 11.0 7    41   
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