Week 15 NFL Preview
PiRate Picks Go A Perfect 7-0!
We’re quite happy here at the PiRate Ratings this week. Our picks against the spread (available for just $5 a week at www.piratings.webs.com), finished a perfect 7-0 last week bringing our record for the season to 86-48-2, 64.2%. Our two-week record is 11-1, and we’ve basically used the same strategy both weeks.
This week, the NFL schedule presents the viewer with a basket of lemons. There are some rather lousy games on tap: Arizona-Detroit, Chicago-Baltimore, Kansas City-Cleveland, Houston-St. Louis, and Seattle-Tampa Bay. However, to the investor, sometimes, these games become hidden gems.
Throw in the college bowl season’s first offerings, and there are still options to consider this week.
The playoff chase is becoming interesting in the AFC, where the 6-win teams are still very much in the hunt. In the NFC, the Packers are virtually a shoo-in now as a Wildcard team, but the final spot is still up for grabs. Dallas holds the upper hand today, but with three very tough finishing games, the Cowboys cannot even be considered the favorite for that spot. Now, if Dallas can somehow pull off the big upset this weekend in New Orleans, then it may be the end of the chase in the NFC.
Here is the way we at the PiRate Ratings see the playoffs shaping up.
NFC East
Philadelphia is 9-4 and should win 11 games to take the title.
Dallas is 8-5, but could easily lose their last three games. We see them finishing 9-7.
New York is 7-6 and absolutely must win at Washington Monday night. If they get by the Redskins, they should beat Carolina, but the finale at Minnesota could be tough unless the Vikings have nothing to play for. We can see the Giants finishing 9-7.
NFC South
The Saints have this race in hand and will have home field advantage for the NFC playoffs.
Atlanta is 6-7 and must win their final three games to have a chance. All three games left are winnable, but the Falcons have not had much luck with injuries this year. We believe they will lose at least once more and be eliminated.
NFC North
Minnesota has secured the title, and Green Bay will secure a wildcard spot with one more win, which they will get either this week or next.
NFC West
Arizona still holds a two-game lead over San Francisco with three to play, so we will pick the Cardinals to repeat as champs.
San Francisco is 6-7. They have to win at Philadelphia this week, to benefit from closing with Detroit and St. Louis. We don’t see Mike Singletary’s club winning at Philly this weekend.
AFC East
This race is still up for grabs. New England owns just a one-game lead over Miami and the Jets, and the Patriots have lost all their true away games this year. With two more away games to play, the Pats could be looking at 9-7, which would open the door.
Miami has topped .500 at 7-6, and they visit Tennessee this week in a death match. The loser can look to next year. If the Dolphins prevail, they finish with two winnable home games and could win the division. We think 9-7 is what Miami fans should expect. The Dolphins hold the tiebreaker advantage over New England, so we believe they can win the division at 9-7 if the Pats blow it this week at Buffalo.
The Jets are also 7-6. They host Atlanta in another death match game. However, they must still go to Indy next week and host Cincinnati in week 17. It looks bleak for Jets’ fans.
AFC South
It’s all about who will finish second in this division, as the only intrigue with the title is whether the Colts can run the table.
Jacksonville is 7-6 and the leader in the clubhouse for the final wildcard spot. They host Indianapolis this week, and they almost beat the Colts at Indy earlier this year. They finish at New England and at Cleveland, so the Jags could be looking at 8-8, which would put them out.
Houston is 6-7 and needs too many things to happen to qualify, least of which is winning their final three games at St. Louis, at Miami, and versus New England. They will be lucky to finish 8-8 for the third straight year.
Tennessee is 6-7 after beginning 0-6. They also need too many things to happen to be considered a legitimate contender. If they defeat Miami at home this week, they still must beat San Diego at home next week and win at Seattle. It looks like 8-8 is their best possibility as well.
AFC North
Cincinnati is on the verge of securing the division title, but the Bengals are the most likely division winner to lose to a wildcard in the opening round.
Baltimore is 7-6, and the Ravens are the one team the division winners don’t want to face in the first round. Baltimore should manhandle the Bears this week to set up a death match game at Pittsburgh. A season finale at Oakland could be tricky, as the Raiders played spoiler last year in week 17. Still, we see the Ravens coming through to win finish at least 9-7
Pittsburgh is 6-7 and is fading as fast as the Red Sox used to fade in baseball. We don’t see them recovering to win three in a row.
AFC West
San Diego holds a two-game lead over Denver, and we see no reason to expect the Chargers to fold.
Denver is 8-5 and has a favorable finishing schedule with both Oakland and Kansas City coming to the Mile High City. You can use pen to put them in as a wildcard.
PiRate Playoff Speculation
NFC—Round One
#3 Philadelphia hosts #6 Dallas
#4 Arizona hosts #5 Green Bay
Divisional Round
#1 New Orleans hosts lower remaining seed
#2 Minnesota hosts higher remaining seed
AFC—Round One
#3 Cincinnati hosts #6 Baltimore
#4 Miami hosts #5 Denver
Divisional Round
#1 Indianapolis hosts lower remaining seed
#2 San Diego hosts higher remaining seed
| Current NFL PiRate Ratings | ||||||||
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PiRate | Mean | Biased | W-L-T | Pts | Opp | ||
| Philadelphia | 106.3 | 105.7 | 106.7 | 9-4-0 | 372 | 273 | ||
| Dallas | 101.7 | 102.4 | 103.3 | 8-5-0 | 296 | 233 | ||
| New York Giants | 101.5 | 100.4 | 103.5 | 7-6-0 | 341 | 330 | ||
| Washington | 99.6 | 99.3 | 96.9 | 4-9-0 | 234 | 251 | ||
| NFC North | PiRate | Mean | Biased | W-L-T | Pts | Opp | ||
| Minnesota | 109.4 | 107.1 | 108.8 | 11-2-0 | 389 | 243 | ||
| Green Bay | 103.9 | 104.3 | 105.9 | 9-4-0 | 344 | 243 | ||
| Chicago | 95.6 | 96.8 | 95.0 | 5-8-0 | 247 | 291 | ||
| Detroit | 88.0 | 88.2 | 86.3 | 2-11-0 | 209 | 406 | ||
| NFC South | PiRate | Mean | Biased | W-L-T | Pts | Opp | ||
| New Orleans | 113.4 | 109.9 | 110.8 | 13-0-0 | 466 | 274 | ||
| Atlanta | 99.9 | 99.8 | 98.8 | 6-7-0 | 302 | 305 | ||
| Carolina | 98.4 | 98.2 | 92.8 | 5-8-0 | 225 | 282 | ||
| Tampa Bay | 89.1 | 91.8 | 88.5 | 1-12-0 | 190 | 356 | ||
| NFC West | PiRate | Mean | Biased | W-L-T | Pts | Opp | ||
| Arizona | 103.9 | 103.1 | 105.1 | 8-5-0 | 306 | 258 | ||
| San Francisco | 100.7 | 101.5 | 100.5 | 6-7-0 | 269 | 242 | ||
| Seattle | 92.9 | 95.0 | 94.7 | 5-8-0 | 250 | 301 | ||
| St. Louis | 85.9 | 88.9 | 86.1 | 1-12-0 | 146 | 361 | ||
| AFC East | PiRate | Mean | Biased | W-L-T | Pts | Opp | ||
| New England | 107.8 | 106.6 | 105.4 | 8-5-0 | 348 | 234 | ||
| NY Jets | 103.1 | 102.8 | 104.3 | 7-6-0 | 275 | 211 | ||
| Miami | 100.3 | 100.8 | 103.9 | 7-6-0 | 292 | 306 | ||
| Buffalo | 96.0 | 97.0 | 96.3 | 5-8-0 | 215 | 271 | ||
| AFC North | PiRate | Mean | Biased | W-L-T | Pts | Opp | ||
| Baltimore | 109.1 | 105.2 | 106.6 | 7-6-0 | 319 | 218 | ||
| Pittsburgh | 101.7 | 99.8 | 99.8 | 6-7-0 | 278 | 244 | ||
| Cincinnati | 101.0 | 101.0 | 104.1 | 9-4-0 | 264 | 217 | ||
| Cleveland | 91.5 | 92.3 | 92.1 | 2-11-0 | 158 | 315 | ||
| AFC South | PiRate | Mean | Biased | W-L-T | Pts | Opp | ||
| Indianapolis | 111.0 | 109.2 | 110.7 | 13-0-0 | 359 | 217 | ||
| Tennessee | 103.6 | 102.4 | 103.1 | 6-7-0 | 293 | 323 | ||
| Houston | 102.1 | 102.5 | 100.4 | 6-7-0 | 311 | 273 | ||
| Jacksonville | 94.4 | 96.7 | 98.9 | 7-6-0 | 235 | 287 | ||
| AFC West | PiRate | Mean | Biased | W-L-T | Pts | Opp | ||
| San Diego | 108.5 | 105.9 | 107.8 | 10-3-0 | 362 | 259 | ||
| Denver | 100.0 | 101.7 | 104.0 | 8-5-0 | 256 | 230 | ||
| Oakland | 91.4 | 92.2 | 90.8 | 4-9-0 | 155 | 316 | ||
| Kansas City | 88.3 | 91.7 | 88.3 | 3-10-0 | 206 | 342 | ||
| This Week’s Games | ||||||
| Home Team in CAPS | (N) Denotes Neutral Site | |||||
| HFA for Week 15 = 2.7 | ||||||
| Vegas Line as of 12:30PM EDT Tuesday | ||||||
| Thursday, December 17, 2009 | ||||||
| Favorite | Underdog | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Vegas | Totals |
| Indianapolis | JACKSONVILLE | 13.9 | 9.8 | 9.1 | 6 1/2 | 46 |
| Saturday, December 19, 2009 | ||||||
| Favorite | Underdog | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Vegas | Totals |
| NEW ORLEANS | Dallas | 14.4 | 10.2 | 10.2 | 7 | 53 1/2 |
| Sunday, December 20, 2009 | ||||||
| Favorite | Underdog | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Vegas | Totals |
| PITTSBURGH | Green Bay | 0.5 | -1.8 | -3.4 | 1 | 40 |
| TENNESSEE | Miami | 6.0 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 3 | 41 1/2 |
| New England | BUFFALO | 9.1 | 6.9 | 6.4 | 7 | 40 1/2 |
| Arizona | DETROIT | 13.2 | 12.2 | 16.1 | 10 1/2 | 47 |
| PHILADELPHIA | San Francisco | 8.3 | 6.9 | 8.9 | 9 | 44 1/2 |
| NEW YORK JETS | Atlanta | 5.9 | 5.7 | 8.2 | NL | NL |
| BALTIMORE | Chicago | 16.2 | 11.1 | 14.3 | 10 | 40 1/2 |
| Cleveland | KANSAS CITY | 0.5 | -2.1 | 1.1 | -2 | 36 1/2 |
| Houston | ST. LOUIS | 13.5 | 10.9 | 11.6 | 9 1/2 | 43 |
| SAN DIEGO | Cincinnati | 10.2 | 7.6 | 6.4 | 6 1/2 | 44 |
| DENVER | Oakland | 11.3 | 12.2 | 15.9 | 14 | 37 |
| SEATTLE | Tampa Bay | 6.5 | 5.9 | 8.9 | 7 | 39 1/2 |
| Minnesota | CAROLINA | 8.3 | 6.2 | 13.3 | 7 | 43 |
| Monday, December 21, 2009 | ||||||
| Favorite | Underdog | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Vegas | Totals |
| WASHINGTON | New York Giants | 0.8 | 1.6 | -3.9 | -3 | 43 |
The Pi-Rate Ratings 