The Pi-Rate Ratings

December 8, 2009

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For NFL Week 13: December 10-14, 2009

NFL Week 14 PiRate Ratings

Eight Games With Must-win Repercussions

 

 

Week 14 of the 2009 NFL season finds half of all games involving a team that faces a must-win situation.  If these must-win teams lose this week, most of them will be out of the playoff race barring a miracle.  One of these games involves both teams facing a must-win situation, so that is the PiRate Game of the Week. 

Those two teams are Miami and Jacksonville.  The Jaguars are in the thick of the playoff race, and yet they cannot sell out the Gator Bowl.  It has led to rumors that the franchise is not long for northern Florida.  Does the name Los Angeles Jaguars or even Toronto Jaguars have a nice ring to it? 

Florida Governor Charles Crist has even spoken up about the situation in Jacksonville.  He recommends the Jags to draft Tim Tebow with their first pick in the 2010 draft.  That would definitely sell some tickets, but it won’t help the Jags win more games.  This is a team that would be in the playoffs if the season ended today.  If they cannot sell out for a playoff contender, it’s time to move this franchise elsewhere.

The Dolphins, along with the Jets, trail New England by just one game, and the Patriots could easily finish as weak as 9-7.  The Jets play at Tampa Bay this week, so the Dolphins know this is a pivotal game.

Other teams that find themselves in a must-win situation are Pittsburgh, Atlanta, Dallas, The New York Giants, and San Francisco.  The Giants host Philadelphia, and the Eagles are almost in a must-win situation, but they can lose this game and still win the division.  Dallas hosts San Diego, and a Cowboys loss could send the Cowboys on a long slide to third place in the NFC East.  After this week, Dallas goes to New Orleans and Washington and hosts Philadelphia to end the season.  A Cowboys loss this week could set the ball in motion for an 8-8 record.

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
               
               
NFC East

 

PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Philadelphia  105.6 105.6 105.5 8-4-0 327 235
NY Giants 102.2 100.9 103.3 7-5-0 303 285
Dallas 101.8 102.6 102.9 8-4-0 279 213
Washington 97.9 98.2 95.9 3-9-0 200 238
               
NFC North PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Minnesota 108.4 106.2 108.0 10-2-0 359 233
Green Bay 103.5 104.0 105.4 8-4-0 323 229
Chicago 96.0 97.1 95.3 5-7-0 233 270
Detroit 89.8 89.5 88.3 2-10-0 206 358
               
NFC South PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
New Orleans 114.4 110.5 111.8 12-0-0 440 251
Atlanta 98.9 98.9 99.8 6-6-0 279 279
Carolina   97.9 98.1 95.9 5-7-0 215 262
Tampa Bay 91.4 92.7 90.5 1-11-0 187 330
               
NFC West PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Arizona 105.7 104.8 105.4 8-4-0 297 234
San Francisco 98.9 99.8 98.2 5-7-0 245 233
Seattle 95.0 96.7 96.2 5-7-0 243 267
St. Louis 87.7 90.4 86.9 1-11-0 139 314
               
AFC East PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
New England 108.3 106.4 105.0 7-5-0 328 224
NY Jets 100.8 101.4 101.9 6-6-0 249 208
Miami 99.6 100.4 102.1 6-6-0 278 296
Buffalo 95.8 96.5 95.7 4-8-0 199 261
               
AFC North PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Baltimore 107.3 104.0 103.7 6-6-0 271 215
Pittsburgh 103.5 101.8 101.9 6-6-0 272 231
Cincinnati 102.0 102.0 104.1 9-3-0 254 187
Cleveland 89.7 90.9 91.0 1-11-0 145 309
               
AFC South PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Indianapolis 111.3 108.5 110.8 12-0-0 331 201
Tennessee 101.8 100.7 100.2 5-7-0 246 316
Houston   100.0 100.8 99.2 5-7-0 277 266
Jacksonville 95.1 96.6 99.8 7-5-0 225 273
               
AFC West PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
San Diego 108.4 105.7 107.9 9-3-0 342 242
Denver 99.7 102.2 104.2 8-4-0 240 202
Oakland   93.1 93.8 92.8 4-8-0 142 282
Kansas City 88.5 91.8 90.3 3-9-0 196 326

 

This Week’s Games
Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site          
             
HFA for Week 14 = 2.7            
Vegas Line as of 5:00PM EDT Tuesday            
Thursday, December 10, 2009            
Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vegas Totals
Pittsburgh CLEVELAND 11.1 8.2 8.2 10    34   
             
Sunday, December 13, 2009            
Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vegas Totals
INDIANAPOLIS Denver 14.3 9.0 9.3 7    44   
MINNESOTA Cincinnati 9.1 6.9 6.6 6 1/2 43   
New York Jets TAMPA BAY 12.1 11.4 14.1 3 1/2 37   
Buffalo KANSAS CITY 4.6 2.0 2.7 Pk 37   
Green Bay CHICAGO 4.8 4.2 7.4 3    41   
New Orleans ATLANTA 12.8 8.9 9.3 9 1/2 51   
BALTIMORE Detroit 20.2 17.2 18.1 13    40   
Miami JACKSONVILLE 1.8 1.1 -0.4 -3    43 1/2
NEW ENGLAND Carolina 13.1 11.0 11.8 13 1/2 43 1/2
HOUSTON Seattle 7.7 6.8 5.7 6 1/2 44 1/2
TENNESSEE St. Louis 16.8 13.0 16.0 13 1/2 41   
Washington OAKLAND 2.1 1.7 0.4 1    37 1/2
San Diego DALLAS 3.9 0.4 2.3 -3    48 1/2
Philadelphia NEW YORK GIANTS 0.7 2.0 -0.5 -1    44 1/2
             
Monday, December 14, 2009            
Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vegas Totals
Arizona SAN FRANCISCO 4.1 2.3 4.5 3 1/2 44 1/2
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