NFL Week 14 PiRate Ratings
Eight Games With Must-win Repercussions
- Last Week’s PiRate Picks Went 4-1, to bring our seasonal percentage against the spread to 62%+. To get this week’s NFL picks, go to www.piratings.webs.com and click on “Picks Vs. Vegas Line: $5”
Week 14 of the 2009 NFL season finds half of all games involving a team that faces a must-win situation. If these must-win teams lose this week, most of them will be out of the playoff race barring a miracle. One of these games involves both teams facing a must-win situation, so that is the PiRate Game of the Week.
Those two teams are Miami and Jacksonville. The Jaguars are in the thick of the playoff race, and yet they cannot sell out the Gator Bowl. It has led to rumors that the franchise is not long for northern Florida. Does the name Los Angeles Jaguars or even Toronto Jaguars have a nice ring to it?
Florida Governor Charles Crist has even spoken up about the situation in Jacksonville. He recommends the Jags to draft Tim Tebow with their first pick in the 2010 draft. That would definitely sell some tickets, but it won’t help the Jags win more games. This is a team that would be in the playoffs if the season ended today. If they cannot sell out for a playoff contender, it’s time to move this franchise elsewhere.
The Dolphins, along with the Jets, trail New England by just one game, and the Patriots could easily finish as weak as 9-7. The Jets play at Tampa Bay this week, so the Dolphins know this is a pivotal game.
Other teams that find themselves in a must-win situation are Pittsburgh, Atlanta, Dallas, The New York Giants, and San Francisco. The Giants host Philadelphia, and the Eagles are almost in a must-win situation, but they can lose this game and still win the division. Dallas hosts San Diego, and a Cowboys loss could send the Cowboys on a long slide to third place in the NFC East. After this week, Dallas goes to New Orleans and Washington and hosts Philadelphia to end the season. A Cowboys loss this week could set the ball in motion for an 8-8 record.
| Current NFL PiRate Ratings | ||||||||
|
PiRate | Mean | Biased | W-L-T | Pts | Opp | ||
| Philadelphia | 105.6 | 105.6 | 105.5 | 8-4-0 | 327 | 235 | ||
| NY Giants | 102.2 | 100.9 | 103.3 | 7-5-0 | 303 | 285 | ||
| Dallas | 101.8 | 102.6 | 102.9 | 8-4-0 | 279 | 213 | ||
| Washington | 97.9 | 98.2 | 95.9 | 3-9-0 | 200 | 238 | ||
| NFC North | PiRate | Mean | Biased | W-L-T | Pts | Opp | ||
| Minnesota | 108.4 | 106.2 | 108.0 | 10-2-0 | 359 | 233 | ||
| Green Bay | 103.5 | 104.0 | 105.4 | 8-4-0 | 323 | 229 | ||
| Chicago | 96.0 | 97.1 | 95.3 | 5-7-0 | 233 | 270 | ||
| Detroit | 89.8 | 89.5 | 88.3 | 2-10-0 | 206 | 358 | ||
| NFC South | PiRate | Mean | Biased | W-L-T | Pts | Opp | ||
| New Orleans | 114.4 | 110.5 | 111.8 | 12-0-0 | 440 | 251 | ||
| Atlanta | 98.9 | 98.9 | 99.8 | 6-6-0 | 279 | 279 | ||
| Carolina | 97.9 | 98.1 | 95.9 | 5-7-0 | 215 | 262 | ||
| Tampa Bay | 91.4 | 92.7 | 90.5 | 1-11-0 | 187 | 330 | ||
| NFC West | PiRate | Mean | Biased | W-L-T | Pts | Opp | ||
| Arizona | 105.7 | 104.8 | 105.4 | 8-4-0 | 297 | 234 | ||
| San Francisco | 98.9 | 99.8 | 98.2 | 5-7-0 | 245 | 233 | ||
| Seattle | 95.0 | 96.7 | 96.2 | 5-7-0 | 243 | 267 | ||
| St. Louis | 87.7 | 90.4 | 86.9 | 1-11-0 | 139 | 314 | ||
| AFC East | PiRate | Mean | Biased | W-L-T | Pts | Opp | ||
| New England | 108.3 | 106.4 | 105.0 | 7-5-0 | 328 | 224 | ||
| NY Jets | 100.8 | 101.4 | 101.9 | 6-6-0 | 249 | 208 | ||
| Miami | 99.6 | 100.4 | 102.1 | 6-6-0 | 278 | 296 | ||
| Buffalo | 95.8 | 96.5 | 95.7 | 4-8-0 | 199 | 261 | ||
| AFC North | PiRate | Mean | Biased | W-L-T | Pts | Opp | ||
| Baltimore | 107.3 | 104.0 | 103.7 | 6-6-0 | 271 | 215 | ||
| Pittsburgh | 103.5 | 101.8 | 101.9 | 6-6-0 | 272 | 231 | ||
| Cincinnati | 102.0 | 102.0 | 104.1 | 9-3-0 | 254 | 187 | ||
| Cleveland | 89.7 | 90.9 | 91.0 | 1-11-0 | 145 | 309 | ||
| AFC South | PiRate | Mean | Biased | W-L-T | Pts | Opp | ||
| Indianapolis | 111.3 | 108.5 | 110.8 | 12-0-0 | 331 | 201 | ||
| Tennessee | 101.8 | 100.7 | 100.2 | 5-7-0 | 246 | 316 | ||
| Houston | 100.0 | 100.8 | 99.2 | 5-7-0 | 277 | 266 | ||
| Jacksonville | 95.1 | 96.6 | 99.8 | 7-5-0 | 225 | 273 | ||
| AFC West | PiRate | Mean | Biased | W-L-T | Pts | Opp | ||
| San Diego | 108.4 | 105.7 | 107.9 | 9-3-0 | 342 | 242 | ||
| Denver | 99.7 | 102.2 | 104.2 | 8-4-0 | 240 | 202 | ||
| Oakland | 93.1 | 93.8 | 92.8 | 4-8-0 | 142 | 282 | ||
| Kansas City | 88.5 | 91.8 | 90.3 | 3-9-0 | 196 | 326 | ||
| This Week’s Games | ||||||
| Home Team in CAPS | (N) Denotes Neutral Site | |||||
| HFA for Week 14 = 2.7 | ||||||
| Vegas Line as of 5:00PM EDT Tuesday | ||||||
| Thursday, December 10, 2009 | ||||||
| Favorite | Underdog | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Vegas | Totals |
| Pittsburgh | CLEVELAND | 11.1 | 8.2 | 8.2 | 10 | 34 |
| Sunday, December 13, 2009 | ||||||
| Favorite | Underdog | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Vegas | Totals |
| INDIANAPOLIS | Denver | 14.3 | 9.0 | 9.3 | 7 | 44 |
| MINNESOTA | Cincinnati | 9.1 | 6.9 | 6.6 | 6 1/2 | 43 |
| New York Jets | TAMPA BAY | 12.1 | 11.4 | 14.1 | 3 1/2 | 37 |
| Buffalo | KANSAS CITY | 4.6 | 2.0 | 2.7 | Pk | 37 |
| Green Bay | CHICAGO | 4.8 | 4.2 | 7.4 | 3 | 41 |
| New Orleans | ATLANTA | 12.8 | 8.9 | 9.3 | 9 1/2 | 51 |
| BALTIMORE | Detroit | 20.2 | 17.2 | 18.1 | 13 | 40 |
| Miami | JACKSONVILLE | 1.8 | 1.1 | -0.4 | -3 | 43 1/2 |
| NEW ENGLAND | Carolina | 13.1 | 11.0 | 11.8 | 13 1/2 | 43 1/2 |
| HOUSTON | Seattle | 7.7 | 6.8 | 5.7 | 6 1/2 | 44 1/2 |
| TENNESSEE | St. Louis | 16.8 | 13.0 | 16.0 | 13 1/2 | 41 |
| Washington | OAKLAND | 2.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 1 | 37 1/2 |
| San Diego | DALLAS | 3.9 | 0.4 | 2.3 | -3 | 48 1/2 |
| Philadelphia | NEW YORK GIANTS | 0.7 | 2.0 | -0.5 | -1 | 44 1/2 |
| Monday, December 14, 2009 | ||||||
| Favorite | Underdog | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Vegas | Totals |
| Arizona | SAN FRANCISCO | 4.1 | 2.3 | 4.5 | 3 1/2 | 44 1/2 |
The Pi-Rate Ratings 