NCAA 2009 College Football Playoff Simulation
The Playoffs You Wished For
Welcome to season number three of the NCAA College Football Playoff Simulation. For those reading this blog for the first time, the PiRate College Football Playoffs take the champions of the ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-10, and SEC as automatic qualifiers. Any of the remaining conference champions (including the top independent) that finish in the top 16 in the final regular season BCS Standings also qualify automatically. At-large teams are then selected in the order of BCS finish until 12 total teams have been selected. The 12 teams are then seeded by BCS ranking with no maximum number of teams per conference.
Here is how the 12 teams were selected for the 2009 playoffs.
Top Six Conference Champions
ACC–Georgia Tech 11-2 #9 Seed
Big East–Cincinnati 12-0 #3 Seed
Big Ten–Ohio State 10-2 #8 Seed
Big 12—Texas 13-0 #2 Seed
Pac-10—Oregon 10-2 #7 Seed
SEC—Alabama 13-0 #1 Seed
Automatic Qualifiers By Virtue Of Top 16 In BCS
MWC—T C U 12-0 #4 Seed
WAC—Boise State 13-0 #6 Seed
Top Four At-Large To Fill Out 12-Team Field
Florida 12-1 #5 Seed
Iowa 10-2 #10 Seed
Virginia Tech 10-2 #11 Seed
L S U 9-3 #12 Seed
The PiRate Playoff System uses the top 11 bowl games to play the four rounds. The 5th through 12th seeds must play in the first round, while the top four seeds receive byes to the quarterfinals.
Opening Round
Outback Bowl #5 Florida vs. #12 L S U Dec 17
Alamo Bowl #6 Boise State vs. #11 Virginia Tech Dec 18
Holiday Bowl #7 Oregon vs. #10 Iowa Dec 19
Gator Bowl #8 Ohio State vs. #9 Georgia Tech Dec 19
Quarterfinal Round
Cotton Bowl #4 T C U vs. Outback Bowl Winner Jan 1
Capital One Bowl #3 Cincinnati vs. Alamo Bowl Winner Jan 1
Rose Bowl #2 Texas vs. Holiday Bowl Winner Jan 1
Sugar Bowl #1 Alabama vs. Gator Bowl Winner Jan 1
Semifinal Round
Fiesta Bowl Sugar Bowl Winner vs. Fiesta Bowl Winner Jan 9
Orange Bowl Rose Bowl Winner vs. Capital One Bowl Winner Jan 9
National Championship Game
Fiesta Bowl Winner vs. Orange Bowl Winner Jan 23
1. This system awards the four best teams with byes.
2. This system not only keeps the bowls alive, but it gives them more importance and prestige, as 11 bowls decide the title.
3. Instead of undefeated Cincinnati, TCU, and Boise State getting left out of the national championship picture, number 13 Penn State is the first team left out. This is much more fair, as this system will always allow a 12-0 team to have a chance regardless of whether it is Alabama or Boise State.
4. The remaining bowls would not have to settle for 6-6 teams. The rules could demand at least 7 wins as a minimum.
5. Three of the four rounds would occur during winter break for the schools, thus quashing the myth that players would miss too much time.
Check back on December 20 for simulated results of the first round games.
Final Regular Season PiRate Ratings
The Army-Navy game must still be played, but that game doesn’t warrant an extra week’s worth of ratings. Neither team can break the top 25 even if they win 222-0. The game still has bowl implications. If Army wins, the Cadets will advance to the Eagle Bank Bowl to face Temple. If Navy wins, then UCLA takes Army’s place in Washington, DC.
| NCAA Top 25 For December 7, 2009 | ||||
| Rank | Team | PiRate | Won | Lost |
| 1 | Alabama | 133.0 | 13 | 0 |
| 2 | Texas | 131.4 | 12 | 0 |
| 3 | Florida | 128.2 | 12 | 1 |
| 4 | T C U | 125.4 | 12 | 0 |
| 5 | Oklahoma | 124.0 | 7 | 5 |
| 6 | Boise State | 120.9 | 12 | 0 |
| 7 | Virginia Tech | 120.5 | 9 | 3 |
| 8 | Oregon | 119.8 | 10 | 2 |
| 9 | Georgia Tech | 119.4 | 11 | 2 |
| 10 | Nebraska | 118.8 | 9 | 4 |
| 11 | Texas Tech | 117.9 | 8 | 4 |
| 12 | Penn State | 117.7 | 10 | 2 |
| 13 | Ohio State | 117.6 | 10 | 2 |
| 14 | Miami (Fla) | 117.4 | 9 | 3 |
| 15 | Stanford | 116.9 | 8 | 4 |
| 16 | Arkansas | 115.5 | 7 | 5 |
| 17 | Southern Cal | 115.1 | 8 | 4 |
| 18 | Cincinnati | 114.9 | 12 | 0 |
| 19 | Iowa | 114.8 | 10 | 2 |
| 20 | Arizona | 114.0 | 8 | 4 |
| 21 | Oklahoma State | 113.9 | 9 | 3 |
| 22 | Pittsburgh | 113.7 | 9 | 3 |
| 23 | Ole Miss | 113.2 | 8 | 4 |
| 24 | L S U | 112.5 | 9 | 3 |
| 25 | Oregon State | 112.0 | 8 | 4 |
| Note: Ratings rounded to one decimal point | ||||
| even though I rank them to two decimal points | ||||
| Atlantic Coast Conference | |||
| Atlantic Division | |||
| Team | Conf. | Overall | Rating |
| Clemson | 6-2 | 8-5 | 111.7 |
| Florida State | 4-4 | 6-6 | 107.6 |
| Boston College | 5-3 | 8-4 | 107.1 |
| Wake Forest | 3-5 | 5-7 | 104.8 |
| North Carolina State | 2-6 | 5-7 | 102.7 |
| Maryland | 1-7 | 2-10 | 93.0 |
| Coastal Division | |||
| Team | Conf. | Overall | Rating |
| Virginia Tech | 6-2 | 9-3 | 120.5 |
| Georgia Tech | 7-1 | 11-2 | 119.4 |
| Miami-FL | 5-3 | 9-3 | 117.4 |
| North Carolina | 4-4 | 8-4 | 110.9 |
| Duke | 3-5 | 5-7 | 98.4 |
| Virginia | 2-6 | 3-9 | 94.8 |
| Big East Conference | |||
| Team | Conf. | Overall | Rating |
| Cincinnati | 8-0 | 12-0 | 114.9 |
| Pittsburgh | 5-2 | 9-3 | 113.7 |
| West Virginia | 5-2 | 9-3 | 106.0 |
| Connecticut | 3-4 | 7-5 | 105.8 |
| Rutgers | 3-4 | 8-4 | 102.1 |
| South Florida | 3-4 | 7-5 | 101.8 |
| Syracuse | 1-6 | 4-8 | 93.9 |
| Louisville | 1-6 | 4-8 | 90.5 |
| Big Ten | |||
| Team | Conf. | Overall | Rating |
| Penn State | 6-2 | 10-2 | 117.7 |
| Ohio State | 7-1 | 10-2 | 117.6 |
| Iowa | 6-2 | 10-2 | 114.8 |
| Wisconsin | 5-3 | 9-3 | 108.5 |
| Michigan State | 4-4 | 6-6 | 101.5 |
| Northwestern | 5-3 | 8-4 | 99.3 |
| Purdue | 4-4 | 5-7 | 99.0 |
| Minnesota | 3-5 | 6-6 | 97.9 |
| Michigan | 1-7 | 5-7 | 96.6 |
| Illinois | 2-6 | 3-9 | 96.0 |
| Indiana | 1-7 | 4-8 | 90.9 |
| Big 12 | |||
| North Division | |||
| Team | Conf. | Overall | Rating |
| Nebraska | 6-2 | 9-4 | 118.9 |
| Missouri | 4-4 | 8-4 | 104.8 |
| Kansas | 1-7 | 5-7 | 103.9 |
| Kansas State | 4-4 | 6-6 | 99.4 |
| Colorado | 2-6 | 3-9 | 97.4 |
| Iowa State | 3-5 | 6-6 | 94.9 |
| South Division | |||
| Team | Conf. | Overall | Rating |
| Texas | 8-0 | 13-0 | 131.4 |
| Oklahoma | 5-3 | 7-5 | 124.0 |
| Texas Tech | 5-3 | 8-4 | 117.9 |
| Oklahoma State | 6-2 | 9-3 | 113.9 |
| Texas A&M | 3-5 | 6-6 | 103.4 |
| Baylor | 1-7 | 4-8 | 96.6 |
| Conference USA | |||
| East Division | |||
| Team | Conf. | Overall | Rating |
| East Carolina | 7-1 | 9-4 | 105.2 |
| Central Florida | 6-2 | 8-4 | 104.1 |
| Southern Mississippi | 5-3 | 7-5 | 100.9 |
| Marshall | 4-4 | 6-6 | 92.4 |
| U A B | 4-4 | 5-7 | 91.0 |
| Memphis | 1-7 | 2-10 | 83.4 |
| West Division | |||
| Team | Conf. | Overall | Rating |
| Houston | 6-2 | 10-3 | 107.4 |
| Tulsa | 3-5 | 5-7 | 91.6 |
| U T E P | 3-5 | 4-8 | 90.8 |
| S M U | 6-2 | 7-5 | 88.4 |
| Rice | 2-6 | 2-10 | 76.4 |
| Tulane | 1-7 | 3-9 | 71.1 |
| Independents | |||
| Team | Overall | Rating | |
| Notre Dame | 6-6 | 105.9 | |
| Navy | 8-4 | 100.6 | |
| Army | 5-6 | 82.0 | |
| Mid American Conference | |||
| East Division | |||
| Team | Conf. | Overall | Rating |
| Temple | 7-1 | 9-3 | 100.7 |
| Ohio U | 7-1 | 9-4 | 94.9 |
| Buffalo | 3-5 | 5-7 | 92.4 |
| Bowling Green | 6-2 | 7-5 | 91.4 |
| Kent St. | 4-4 | 6-6 | 84.7 |
| Akron | 2-6 | 3-9 | 81.5 |
| Miami (O) | 1-7 | 1-11 | 76.3 |
| West Division | |||
| Team | Conf. | Overall | Rating |
| Central Michigan | 8-0 | 11-2 | 109.0 |
| Northern Illinois | 5-3 | 7-5 | 95.1 |
| Toledo | 3-5 | 5-7 | 87.1 |
| Western Michigan | 4-4 | 5-7 | 86.2 |
| Ball State | 2-6 | 2-10 | 83.0 |
| Eastern Michigan | 0-8 | 0-12 | 74.2 |
| Mountain West Conference | |||
| Team | Conf. | Overall | Rating |
| T C U | 8-0 | 12-0 | 125.4 |
| B Y U | 7-1 | 10-2 | 111.1 |
| Utah | 6-2 | 9-3 | 107.7 |
| Air Force | 5-3 | 7-5 | 100.7 |
| Wyoming | 4-4 | 6-6 | 87.9 |
| UNLV | 3-5 | 5-7 | 86.8 |
| Colo. State | 0-8 | 3-9 | 86.1 |
| S. D. State | 3-5 | 5-7 | 85.2 |
| New Mexico | 1-7 | 1-11 | 77.8 |
| Pac-10 Conference | |||
| Team | Conf. | Overall | Rating |
| Oregon | 8-1 | 10-2 | 119.8 |
| Stanford | 6-3 | 8-4 | 116.9 |
| Southern Cal | 5-4 | 8-4 | 115.1 |
| Arizona | 6-3 | 8-4 | 114.0 |
| Oregon St. | 6-3 | 8-4 | 112.0 |
| California | 5-4 | 8-4 | 108.6 |
| U C L A | 3-6 | 6-6 | 105.3 |
| Arizona St. | 2-7 | 4-8 | 102.1 |
| Washington | 4-5 | 5-7 | 103.6 |
| Wash. St. | 0-9 | 1-11 | 70.8 |
| Southeastern Conference | |||
| East Division | |||
| Team | Conf. | Overall | Rating |
| Florida | 8-0 | 12-1 | 128.2 |
| Tennessee | 4-4 | 7-5 | 110.9 |
| South Carolina | 3-5 | 7-5 | 110.9 |
| Georgia | 4-4 | 7-5 | 110.4 |
| Kentucky | 3-5 | 7-5 | 104.4 |
| Vanderbilt | 0-8 | 2-10 | 93.1 |
| West Division | |||
| Team | Conf. | Overall | Rating |
| Alabama | 8-0 | 13-0 | 133.0 |
| Arkansas | 3-5 | 7-5 | 115.5 |
| Ole Miss | 4-4 | 8-4 | 113.2 |
| L S U | 5-3 | 9-3 | 112.5 |
| Auburn | 3-5 | 7-5 | 107.7 |
| Mississippi State | 3-5 | 5-7 | 104.2 |
| Sunbelt Conference | |||
| Team | Conf. | Overall | Rating |
| Troy | 8-0 | 9-3 | 99.0 |
| Middle Tennessee | 7-1 | 9-3 | 96.2 |
| Louisiana-Monroe | 5-3 | 6-6 | 86.8 |
| Arkansas State | 3-5 | 4-8 | 85.8 |
| Florida Atlantic | 5-3 | 5-7 | 84.6 |
| U. of Louisiana | 4-4 | 6-6 | 83.7 |
| Florida International | 3-5 | 3-9 | 80.3 |
| North Texas | 1-7 | 2-10 | 76.4 |
| Western Kentucky | 0-8 | 0-12 | 73.7 |
| Western Athletic Conference | |||
| Team | Conf. | Overall | Rating |
| Boise State | 8-0 | 13-0 | 120.9 |
| Nevada | 7-1 | 8-4 | 108.6 |
| Louisiana Tech | 3-5 | 4-8 | 99.8 |
| Fresno State | 6-2 | 7-4 | 99.0 |
| Utah State | 3-5 | 4-8 | 91.9 |
| Idaho | 4-4 | 7-5 | 89.6 |
| Hawaii | 3-5 | 6-6 | 87.7 |
| San Jose State | 1-7 | 2-10 | 78.5 |
| New Mexico State | 1-7 | 3-10 | 71.0 |
Bowl Lineups
| Day | Date | Time EST | Bowl | Team | Team | |
| Sat | 19-Dec | 4:30 PM | New Mexico | Wyoming | vs. | Fresno State |
| Sat | 19-Dec | 8:00 PM | St. Petersburg | Rutgers | vs. | Central Florida |
| Sun | 20-Dec | 8:15 PM | New Orleans | Middle Tenn | vs. | Southern Miss |
| Tue | 22-Dec | 8:00 PM | Las Vegas | B Y U | vs. | Oregon State |
| Wed | 23-Dec | 8:00 PM | Poinsettia | Utah | vs. | California |
| Thu | 24-Dec | 8:00 PM | Hawaii | Nevada | vs. | S M U |
| Sat | 26-Dec | 1:00 PM | Little Caesar’s Pizza | Marshall | vs. | Ohio U |
| Sat | 26-Dec | 4:30 PM | Meineke Car Care | North Carolina | vs. | Pittsburgh |
| Sat | 26-Dec | 8:00 PM | Emerald | Southern Cal | vs. | Boston College |
| Sun | 27-Dec | 8:15 PM | Music City | Kentucky | vs. | Clemson |
| Mon | 28-Dec | 5:00 PM | Independence | Georgia | vs. | Texas A&M |
| Tue | 29-Dec | 4:30 PM | Eagle Bank | Temple | vs. | Army/UCLA |
| Tue | 29-Dec | 8:00 PM | Champs Sports | Miami-Fl | vs. | Wisconsin |
| Wed | 30-Dec | 4:30 PM | Humanitarian | Idaho | vs. | Bowling Green |
| Wed | 30-Dec | 8:00 PM | Holiday | Nebraska | vs. | Arizona |
| Thu | 31-Dec | 11:00 AM | Armed Forces | Houston | vs. | Air Force |
| Thu | 31-Dec | 2:00 PM | Sun | Stanford | vs. | Oklahoma |
| Thu | 31-Dec | 3:30 PM | Texas | Missouri | vs. | Navy |
| Thu | 31-Dec | 6:00 PM | Insight.com | Iowa State | vs. | Minnesota |
| Thu | 31-Dec | 7:30 PM | Chick-fil-A | Tennessee | vs. | Va. Tech |
| Fri | 1-Jan | 11:00 AM | Outback | Auburn | vs. | Northwestern |
| Fri | 1-Jan | 1:00 PM | Capital One | Penn State | vs. | L S U |
| Fri | 1-Jan | 1:00 PM | Gator | West Va. | vs. | Florida State |
| Fri | 1-Jan | 5:10 PM | Rose | Oregon | vs. | Ohio State |
| Fri | 1-Jan | 8:00 PM | Sugar | Florida | vs. | Cincinnati |
| Sat | 2-Jan | 12:00 PM | International | South Florida | vs. | Northern Illinois |
| Sat | 2-Jan | 2:00 PM | Cotton | Oklahoma St. | vs. | Ole Miss |
| Sat | 2-Jan | 2:00 PM | Papajohns.com | Connecticut | vs. | South Carolina |
| Sat | 2-Jan | 5:30 PM | Liberty | Arkansas | vs. | East Carolina |
| Sat | 2-Jan | 9:00 PM | Alamo | Texas Tech | vs. | Michigan St. |
| Mon | 4-Jan | 8:00 PM | Fiesta | Boise State | vs. | T C U |
| Tue | 5-Jan | 8:00 PM | Orange | Georgia Tech | vs. | Iowa |
| Wed | 6-Jan | 8:00 PM | G M A C | Troy | vs. | Central Mich. |
| Thu | 7-Jan | 8:00 PM | Nat’l Championship | Alabama | vs. | Texas |
Coming This Week–What you can do to help bring about a college football playoff
The Pi-Rate Ratings 
[…] If you want to know the whys and hows of this computer simulation playoff, read the following entry from December 7, 2009: https://piratings.wordpress.com/2009/12/07/pirate-ratings-and-spreads-for-college-football%e2%80%93re… […]
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