Week 13 NFL Preview
Will week 13 be unlucky for an undefeated team? New Orleans is coming off an emotional Monday night win over New England. The Saints have what looks like a relatively easy game at Washington, but this could be a much closer game than expected.
11-0 Indianapolis has clinched the AFC South Division and owns a three game lead over Cincinnati and San Diego for home field advantage. They face the suddenly streaking Tennessee Titans, winners of five games in a row after beginning the year 0-6. Tennessee basically has to run the table to earn an improbable and virtually impossible playoff spot.
NFL football returns to the Rogers Centre in Toronto Thursday night when the Bills and the Jets hook up. It should be a fun one to watch for the folks in Ontario, and a sellout could bolster the chances for North America’s fifth largest city obtaining an NFL franchise one day.
The must-win teams this week are: The Jets against Buffalo; Pittsburgh against Oakland (uncertainty at QB for the Steelers); Houston and Jacksonville; Tennessee against Indianapolis; Atlanta and Philadelphia; San Francisco against Seattle; The Giants against Dallas; and Green Bay and Baltimore.
PiRate NFL Playoff Speculation
In the NFC, New Orleans and Minnesota will be the top two seeds and get a bye. The third and fourth seeds will be Dallas and Arizona. We believe the Giants, Falcons, Packers, and Eagles could all finish 9-7. If the 49ers win this week at Seattle, they too could win nine games. It’s a crapshoot to try to determine the tiebreakers with five weeks to go, but we’ll pencil in Green Bay and Philadelphia into those slots.
In the AFC, Indianapolis, Cincinnati, San Diego, and New England have all but wrapped up division titles. Denver’s schedule gives them an excellent opportunity to get to 10 wins. Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Houston, Jacksonville, the New York Jets, and even Tennessee all have shots at 9-7 records. Again, picking one of these teams to win all the tiebreakers is more than we can do, so we’ll stick with Baltimore getting the last spot for now.
Opening Week
NFC
#3 Dallas vs. #6 Philadelphia
#4 Arizona vs. #5 Green Bay
AFC
#3 Cincinnati vs. #6 Baltimore
#4 New England vs. #5 Denver
Byes
NFC
#1 New Orleans
#2 Minnesota
AFC
#1 Indianapolis
#2 San Diego
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Current NFL PiRate Ratings |
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PiRate | Mean | Biased | W-L-T | Pts | Opp | ||
| Dallas | 102.6 | 103.7 | 105.4 | 8-3-0 | 255 | 182 | ||
| Philadelphia | 102.4 | 103.6 | 103.5 | 7-4-0 | 293 | 228 | ||
| NY Giants | 101.4 | 100.7 | 101.5 | 6-5-0 | 272 | 261 | ||
| Washington | 96.1 | 96.7 | 94.9 | 3-8-0 | 170 | 205 | ||
| NFC North | PiRate | Mean | Biased | W-L-T | Pts | Opp | ||
| Minnesota | 110.7 | 107.5 | 109.6 | 10-1-0 | 342 | 203 | ||
| Green Bay | 102.4 | 103.1 | 104.6 | 7-4-0 | 296 | 215 | ||
| Chicago | 96.4 | 97.6 | 95.7 | 4-7-0 | 216 | 261 | ||
| Detroit | 89.2 | 89.0 | 85.9 | 2-9-0 | 193 | 335 | ||
| NFC South | PiRate | Mean | Biased | W-L-T | Pts | Opp | ||
| New Orleans | 116.2 | 111.0 | 112.0 | 11-0-0 | 407 | 221 | ||
| Atlanta | 102.1 | 101.2 | 101.8 | 6-5-0 | 272 | 245 | ||
| Carolina | 97.8 | 97.8 | 96.6 | 4-7-0 | 199 | 256 | ||
| Tampa Bay | 91.5 | 93.1 | 91.4 | 1-10-0 | 181 | 314 | ||
| NFC West | PiRate | Mean | Biased | W-L-T | Pts | Opp | ||
| Arizona | 103.4 | 103.0 | 104.2 | 7-4-0 | 267 | 217 | ||
| San Francisco | 99.9 | 100.2 | 99.3 | 5-6-0 | 228 | 213 | ||
| Seattle | 94.0 | 95.7 | 94.9 | 4-7-0 | 223 | 250 | ||
| St. Louis | 87.3 | 90.3 | 88.8 | 1-10-0 | 130 | 297 | ||
| AFC East | PiRate | Mean | Biased | W-L-T | Pts | Opp | ||
| New England | 109.9 | 107.5 | 107.0 | 7-4-0 | 307 | 202 | ||
| NY Jets | 100.6 | 101.0 | 100.8 | 5-6-0 | 230 | 195 | ||
| Miami | 98.0 | 99.8 | 97.7 | 5-6-0 | 256 | 275 | ||
| Buffalo | 96.0 | 96.6 | 97.2 | 4-7-0 | 186 | 242 | ||
| AFC North | PiRate | Mean | Biased | W-L-T | Pts | Opp | ||
| Baltimore | 108.4 | 105.5 | 106.9 | 6-5-0 | 257 | 188 | ||
| Pittsburgh | 105.9 | 103.8 | 104.2 | 6-5-0 | 248 | 204 | ||
| Cincinnati | 102.6 | 102.8 | 104.0 | 8-3-0 | 231 | 174 | ||
| Cleveland | 89.1 | 90.2 | 87.4 | 1-10-0 | 122 | 279 | ||
| AFC South | PiRate | Mean | Biased | W-L-T | Pts | Opp | ||
| Indianapolis | 111.4 | 108.3 | 109.2 | 11-0-0 | 304 | 184 | ||
| Houston | 102.1 | 101.9 | 101.3 | 5-6-0 | 259 | 243 | ||
| Tennessee | 101.7 | 100.7 | 102.8 | 5-6-0 | 229 | 289 | ||
| Jacksonville | 93.0 | 95.8 | 96.5 | 6-5-0 | 202 | 255 | ||
| AFC West | PiRate | Mean | Biased | W-L-T | Pts | Opp | ||
| San Diego | 109.0 | 106.1 | 107.7 | 8-3-0 | 312 | 219 | ||
| Denver | 97.4 | 100.1 | 102.4 | 7-4-0 | 196 | 189 | ||
| Kansas City | 90.8 | 93.8 | 92.6 | 3-8-0 | 183 | 282 | ||
| Oakland | 90.7 | 91.9 | 92.2 | 3-8-0 | 115 | 258 | ||
| This Week’s Games | ||||||
| Home Team in CAPS | (N) Denotes Neutral Site | |||||
| HFA for Week 13 = 2.6 | ||||||
| Vegas Line as of 6:00PM EDT Tuesday | ||||||
| Thursday, December 3, 2009 | ||||||
| Favorite | Underdog | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Vegas | Totals |
| New York Jets | Buffalo (Toronto) | 4.6 | 4.4 | 3.6 | 3 | 36 1/2 |
| Sunday, December 6, 2009 | ||||||
| Favorite | Underdog | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Vegas | Totals |
| Denver | KANSAS CITY | 4.0 | 3.7 | 7.2 | 4 1/2 | 38 |
| PITTSBURGH | Oakland | 17.8 | 14.5 | 14.6 | NL | NL |
| Houston | JACKSONVILLE | 6.5 | 3.5 | 2.2 | Pk | 46 1/2 |
| INDIANAPOLIS | Tennessee | 12.3 | 10.2 | 9.0 | 6 1/2 | 47 |
| ATLANTA | Philadelphia | 2.3 | 0.2 | 0.9 | -6 | 44 |
| CINCINNATI | Detroit | 16.0 | 16.4 | 20.7 | 12 1/2 | 42 1/2 |
| New Orleans | WASHINGTON | 17.5 | 11.7 | 14.5 | 9 1/2 | 47 1/2 |
| CAROLINA | Tampa Bay | 8.9 | 7.3 | 7.8 | 6 | 40 |
| CHICAGO | St. Louis | 11.7 | 9.9 | 9.5 | 9 1/2 | 40 1/2 |
| San Diego | CLEVELAND | 17.3 | 13.3 | 17.7 | 13 | 43 |
| San Francisco | SEATTLE | 3.3 | 1.9 | 1.8 | Pk | 41 1/2 |
| NEW YORK GIANTS | Dallas | 1.4 | -0.4 | -1.3 | -3 | 45 1/2 |
| New England | MIAMI | 9.3 | 5.1 | 6.7 | 5 | 46 1/2 |
| Minnesota | ARIZONA | 4.7 | 1.9 | 2.8 | NL | NL |
| Monday, December 7, 2009 | ||||||
| Favorite | Underdog | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Vegas | Totals |
| Baltimore | GREEN BAY | 3.4 | -0.2 | -0.3 | 3 1/2 | 43 |
For College and NFL Picks Against the Spread, go to:
The Pi-Rate Ratings 