The Pi-Rate Ratings

December 1, 2009

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For NFL Week 12: December 3-7, 2009

Week 13 NFL Preview

 

Will week 13 be unlucky for an undefeated team?  New Orleans is coming off an emotional Monday night win over New England.  The Saints have what looks like a relatively easy game at Washington, but this could be a much closer game than expected.

11-0 Indianapolis has clinched the AFC South Division and owns a three game lead over Cincinnati and San Diego for home field advantage.  They face the suddenly streaking Tennessee Titans, winners of five games in a row after beginning the year 0-6.  Tennessee basically has to run the table to earn an improbable and virtually impossible playoff spot.

NFL football returns to the Rogers Centre in Toronto Thursday night when the Bills and the Jets hook up.  It should be a fun one to watch for the folks in Ontario, and a sellout could bolster the chances for North America’s fifth largest city obtaining an NFL franchise one day.

The must-win teams this week are: The Jets against Buffalo; Pittsburgh against Oakland (uncertainty at QB for the Steelers); Houston and Jacksonville; Tennessee against Indianapolis; Atlanta and Philadelphia; San Francisco against Seattle; The Giants against Dallas; and Green Bay and Baltimore.

PiRate NFL Playoff Speculation

 

In the NFC, New Orleans and Minnesota will be the top two seeds and get a bye.  The third and fourth seeds will be Dallas and Arizona.  We believe the Giants, Falcons, Packers,  and Eagles could all finish 9-7.  If the 49ers win this week at Seattle, they too could win nine games.  It’s a crapshoot to try to determine the tiebreakers with five weeks to go, but we’ll pencil in Green Bay and Philadelphia into those slots.

In the AFC, Indianapolis, Cincinnati, San Diego, and New England have all but wrapped up division titles.  Denver’s schedule gives them an excellent opportunity to get to 10 wins.  Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Houston, Jacksonville, the New York Jets, and even Tennessee all have shots at 9-7 records.  Again, picking one of these teams to win all the tiebreakers is more than we can do, so we’ll stick with Baltimore getting the last spot for now.

Opening Week

NFC

#3 Dallas vs. #6 Philadelphia

#4 Arizona vs. #5 Green Bay

 

AFC

#3 Cincinnati vs. #6 Baltimore

#4 New England vs. #5 Denver

 

Byes

NFC

#1 New Orleans

#2 Minnesota

 

AFC

#1 Indianapolis

#2 San Diego

 

Current NFL PiRate Ratings

               
               
 

NFC East

 

PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Dallas  102.6 103.7 105.4 8-3-0 255 182
Philadelphia  102.4 103.6 103.5 7-4-0 293 228
NY Giants 101.4 100.7 101.5 6-5-0 272 261
Washington  96.1 96.7 94.9 3-8-0 170 205
               
NFC North PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Minnesota 110.7 107.5 109.6 10-1-0 342 203
Green Bay 102.4 103.1 104.6 7-4-0 296 215
Chicago 96.4 97.6 95.7 4-7-0 216 261
Detroit 89.2 89.0 85.9 2-9-0 193 335
               
NFC South PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
New Orleans 116.2 111.0 112.0 11-0-0 407 221
Atlanta 102.1 101.2 101.8 6-5-0 272 245
Carolina   97.8 97.8 96.6 4-7-0 199 256
Tampa Bay 91.5 93.1 91.4 1-10-0 181 314
               
NFC West PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Arizona 103.4 103.0 104.2 7-4-0 267 217
San Francisco 99.9 100.2 99.3 5-6-0 228 213
Seattle 94.0 95.7 94.9 4-7-0 223 250
St. Louis 87.3 90.3 88.8 1-10-0 130 297
               
AFC East PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
New England 109.9 107.5 107.0 7-4-0 307 202
NY Jets 100.6 101.0 100.8 5-6-0 230 195
Miami 98.0 99.8 97.7 5-6-0 256 275
Buffalo 96.0 96.6 97.2 4-7-0 186 242
               
AFC North PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Baltimore 108.4 105.5 106.9 6-5-0 257 188
Pittsburgh 105.9 103.8 104.2 6-5-0 248 204
Cincinnati 102.6 102.8 104.0 8-3-0 231 174
Cleveland 89.1 90.2 87.4 1-10-0 122 279
               
AFC South PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Indianapolis 111.4 108.3 109.2 11-0-0 304 184
Houston 102.1 101.9 101.3 5-6-0 259 243
Tennessee 101.7 100.7 102.8 5-6-0 229 289
Jacksonville 93.0 95.8 96.5 6-5-0 202 255
               
AFC West PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
San Diego 109.0 106.1 107.7 8-3-0 312 219
Denver 97.4 100.1 102.4 7-4-0 196 189
Kansas City 90.8 93.8 92.6 3-8-0 183 282
Oakland 90.7 91.9 92.2 3-8-0 115 258

 

This Week’s Games
Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site          
             
HFA for Week 13 = 2.6            
Vegas Line as of 6:00PM EDT Tuesday            
Thursday, December 3, 2009            
Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vegas Totals
New York Jets Buffalo (Toronto) 4.6 4.4 3.6 3    36 1/2
             
Sunday, December 6, 2009            
Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vegas Totals
Denver KANSAS CITY 4.0 3.7 7.2 4 1/2 38   
PITTSBURGH Oakland 17.8 14.5 14.6 NL NL
Houston JACKSONVILLE 6.5 3.5 2.2 Pk 46 1/2
INDIANAPOLIS Tennessee 12.3 10.2 9.0 6 1/2 47   
ATLANTA Philadelphia 2.3 0.2 0.9 -6    44   
CINCINNATI Detroit 16.0 16.4 20.7 12 1/2 42 1/2
New Orleans WASHINGTON 17.5 11.7 14.5 9 1/2 47 1/2
CAROLINA Tampa Bay 8.9 7.3 7.8 6    40   
CHICAGO St. Louis 11.7 9.9 9.5 9 1/2 40 1/2
San Diego CLEVELAND 17.3 13.3 17.7 13    43   
San Francisco SEATTLE 3.3 1.9 1.8 Pk 41 1/2
NEW YORK GIANTS Dallas 1.4 -0.4 -1.3 -3    45 1/2
New England MIAMI 9.3 5.1 6.7 5    46 1/2
Minnesota ARIZONA 4.7 1.9 2.8 NL NL
             
Monday, December 7, 2009            
Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vegas Totals
Baltimore GREEN BAY 3.4 -0.2 -0.3 3 1/2 43   

 

For College and NFL Picks Against the Spread, go to:

 

www.piratings.webs.com

 

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