The Pi-Rate Ratings

November 24, 2009

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For NFL Week 12: November 26-30, 2009

Some Festive Games and Some Turkeys

We’ve arrived at Thanksgiving week, and the NFL season has become one of haves, have-nots, and mediocre teams.  The haves (New Orleans, Indianapolis, Minnesota, Cincinnati, San Diego, Arizona, and New England) figure to be the eight teams playing in the second round of the NFL playoffs. 

 The have-nots (Cleveland, Detroit, Tampa Bay, St. Louis, Washington, Kansas City, Oakland, Seattle, and Buffalo) have nothing to play for at this point.  To wager on these teams, one must find a reason to believe these teams’ players will have a reason to give everything they’ve got.

 The 15 mediocre teams remaining are the ones competing for the final four playoff berths.  These are the teams that must be watched carefully as the stretch drive begins.  Be careful playing against one of these teams when they are playing a have or have-not.  They can be dangerous.

 This week presents some interesting contests.  On Thanksgiving night, the Denver-New York Giants game features two of the aforementioned mediocre teams.  A match-up of two mediocre teams in essence becomes a playoff elimination game.  The loser of this game has very little chance of recovering to make the playoffs this year.

 Indianapolis plays at Houston, and the Texans find their backs up against the wall.  After losing a close Monday night game, Houston is in a must-win position.

 Arizona plays at Tennessee, and if the Titans win this one to get to 5-6, they would have to be considered a dark horse candidate to finish 9-7 and sneak in as the final AFC Playoff team.  No NFL team has ever started a season at 0-6 and finished 8-8 must less 9-7.  The 1970 Cincinnati Bengals began the season 1-6 and won seven games in a row to win the AFC Central Division at 8-6.

 Baltimore and Pittsburgh face off in a blood and guts battle that could easily be a playoff elimination game.

 The Monday night game is the best MNF game of the year.  New England plays at New Orleans.  It could easily be a preview of the Super Bowl.

 

Current NFL PiRate Ratings

 

           

 

             

 

NFC East

 

PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
NY Giants 103.6 102.6 103.8 6-4-0 266 235
Philadelphia  103.2 104.2 103.4 6-4-0 266 204
Dallas  102.1 103.8 103.1 7-3-0 231 175
Washington  95.3 95.7 95.3 3-7-0 146 178
               
NFC North PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Minnesota 109.2 106.7 108.7 9-1-0 306 193
Green Bay 101.1 102.4 103.2 6-4-0 262 203
Chicago 97.9 98.4 97.6 4-6-0 206 225
Detroit 90.4 89.1 88.2 2-8-0 181 301
               
NFC South PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
New Orleans 114.1 110.1 111.0 10-0-0 369 204
Atlanta 103.1 102.3 101.8 5-5-0 252 228
Carolina   99.0 98.4 99.0 4-6-0 193 239
Tampa Bay 90.5 91.9 87.0 1-9-0 164 294
               
NFC West PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Arizona 104.0 103.4 104.6 7-3-0 250 197
San Francisco 98.7 99.8 99.8 4-6-0 208 210
Seattle 93.3 95.3 93.1 3-7-0 196 233
St. Louis 88.0 91.1 91.2 1-9-0 113 270
               
AFC East PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
New England 112.0 109.1 108.6 7-3-0 290 164
Miami 100.1 101.4 101.6 5-5-0 242 244
NY Jets 99.4 100.7 100.2 4-6-0 213 189
Buffalo 93.9 94.1 92.9 3-7-0 155 228
               
AFC North PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Baltimore 108.8 105.7 104.8 5-5-0 237 171
Pittsburgh 105.5 103.9 104.4 6-4-0 231 184
Cincinnati 103.4 103.8 104.6 7-3-0 215 167
Cleveland 88.2 89.3 87.2 1-9-0 115 263
               
AFC South PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Indianapolis 111.1 108.6 108.9 10-0-0 269 157
Houston 102.4 102.0 101.6 5-5-0 232 208
Tennessee 101.0 100.1 101.6 4-6-0 209 272
Jacksonville 94.0 96.4 100.0 6-4-0 199 235
               
AFC West PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
San Diego 107.6 105.2 106.3 7-3-0 269 205
Denver 95.1 98.3 98.8 6-4-0 170 183
Kansas City 92.2 94.6 94.5 3-7-0 169 239
Oakland 91.1 91.5 93.1 3-7-0 108 234

 

This Week’s Games
Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site          
             
HFA for Week 12 = 2.7            
Vegas Line as of 6:00PM EDT Tuesday            
Thursday, November 26, 2009            
Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vegas Totals
Green Bay DETROIT 8.0 10.6 12.3 11    47 1/2
DALLAS Oakland 13.7 15.0 12.7 13 1/2 40   
DENVER New York Giants 5.8 1.6 2.3 -7    42   
             
Sunday, November 29, 2009            
Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vegas Totals
Indianapolis HOUSTON 6.0 3.9 4.6 3    48   
CINCINNATI Cleveland 17.9 17.2 20.1 14    38 1/2
MINNESOTA Chicago 14.0 11.0 13.8 10 1/2 46 1/2
PHILADELPHIA Washington 10.6 11.2 10.8 9 1/2 40 1/2
Miami BUFFALO 3.5 4.6 6.0 3    39 1/2
Arizona TENNESSEE 0.3 0.6 0.3 2 1/2 46 1/2
Seattle ST. LOUIS 2.6 1.1 -0.8 3    42 1/2
ATLANTA Tampa Bay 15.3 13.1 17.5 12 1/2 46   
NEW YORK JETS Carolina 3.1 5.0 3.9 3    41 1/2
SAN FRANCISCO Jacksonville 7.4 6.1 2.5 3    41 1/2
SAN DIEGO Kansas City 18.1 13.3 15.5 13 1/2 45   
BALTIMORE Pittsburgh 6.0 4.5 3.1 2 1/2 39 1/2
             
Monday, November 30, 2009            
Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vegas Totals
NEW ORLEANS New England 4.8 3.7 5.1 3    56 1/2

 

Advertisements

Leave a Comment »

No comments yet.

RSS feed for comments on this post. TrackBack URI

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

Create a free website or blog at WordPress.com.

%d bloggers like this: