Some Festive Games and Some Turkeys
We’ve arrived at Thanksgiving week, and the NFL season has become one of haves, have-nots, and mediocre teams. The haves (New Orleans, Indianapolis, Minnesota, Cincinnati, San Diego, Arizona, and New England) figure to be the eight teams playing in the second round of the NFL playoffs.
The have-nots (Cleveland, Detroit, Tampa Bay, St. Louis, Washington, Kansas City, Oakland, Seattle, and Buffalo) have nothing to play for at this point. To wager on these teams, one must find a reason to believe these teams’ players will have a reason to give everything they’ve got.
The 15 mediocre teams remaining are the ones competing for the final four playoff berths. These are the teams that must be watched carefully as the stretch drive begins. Be careful playing against one of these teams when they are playing a have or have-not. They can be dangerous.
This week presents some interesting contests. On Thanksgiving night, the Denver-New York Giants game features two of the aforementioned mediocre teams. A match-up of two mediocre teams in essence becomes a playoff elimination game. The loser of this game has very little chance of recovering to make the playoffs this year.
Indianapolis plays at Houston, and the Texans find their backs up against the wall. After losing a close Monday night game, Houston is in a must-win position.
Arizona plays at Tennessee, and if the Titans win this one to get to 5-6, they would have to be considered a dark horse candidate to finish 9-7 and sneak in as the final AFC Playoff team. No NFL team has ever started a season at 0-6 and finished 8-8 must less 9-7. The 1970 Cincinnati Bengals began the season 1-6 and won seven games in a row to win the AFC Central Division at 8-6.
Baltimore and Pittsburgh face off in a blood and guts battle that could easily be a playoff elimination game.
The Monday night game is the best MNF game of the year. New England plays at New Orleans. It could easily be a preview of the Super Bowl.
| Current NFL PiRate Ratings | ||||||||
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PiRate | Mean | Biased | W-L-T | Pts | Opp | ||
| NY Giants | 103.6 | 102.6 | 103.8 | 6-4-0 | 266 | 235 | ||
| Philadelphia | 103.2 | 104.2 | 103.4 | 6-4-0 | 266 | 204 | ||
| Dallas | 102.1 | 103.8 | 103.1 | 7-3-0 | 231 | 175 | ||
| Washington | 95.3 | 95.7 | 95.3 | 3-7-0 | 146 | 178 | ||
| NFC North | PiRate | Mean | Biased | W-L-T | Pts | Opp | ||
| Minnesota | 109.2 | 106.7 | 108.7 | 9-1-0 | 306 | 193 | ||
| Green Bay | 101.1 | 102.4 | 103.2 | 6-4-0 | 262 | 203 | ||
| Chicago | 97.9 | 98.4 | 97.6 | 4-6-0 | 206 | 225 | ||
| Detroit | 90.4 | 89.1 | 88.2 | 2-8-0 | 181 | 301 | ||
| NFC South | PiRate | Mean | Biased | W-L-T | Pts | Opp | ||
| New Orleans | 114.1 | 110.1 | 111.0 | 10-0-0 | 369 | 204 | ||
| Atlanta | 103.1 | 102.3 | 101.8 | 5-5-0 | 252 | 228 | ||
| Carolina | 99.0 | 98.4 | 99.0 | 4-6-0 | 193 | 239 | ||
| Tampa Bay | 90.5 | 91.9 | 87.0 | 1-9-0 | 164 | 294 | ||
| NFC West | PiRate | Mean | Biased | W-L-T | Pts | Opp | ||
| Arizona | 104.0 | 103.4 | 104.6 | 7-3-0 | 250 | 197 | ||
| San Francisco | 98.7 | 99.8 | 99.8 | 4-6-0 | 208 | 210 | ||
| Seattle | 93.3 | 95.3 | 93.1 | 3-7-0 | 196 | 233 | ||
| St. Louis | 88.0 | 91.1 | 91.2 | 1-9-0 | 113 | 270 | ||
| AFC East | PiRate | Mean | Biased | W-L-T | Pts | Opp | ||
| New England | 112.0 | 109.1 | 108.6 | 7-3-0 | 290 | 164 | ||
| Miami | 100.1 | 101.4 | 101.6 | 5-5-0 | 242 | 244 | ||
| NY Jets | 99.4 | 100.7 | 100.2 | 4-6-0 | 213 | 189 | ||
| Buffalo | 93.9 | 94.1 | 92.9 | 3-7-0 | 155 | 228 | ||
| AFC North | PiRate | Mean | Biased | W-L-T | Pts | Opp | ||
| Baltimore | 108.8 | 105.7 | 104.8 | 5-5-0 | 237 | 171 | ||
| Pittsburgh | 105.5 | 103.9 | 104.4 | 6-4-0 | 231 | 184 | ||
| Cincinnati | 103.4 | 103.8 | 104.6 | 7-3-0 | 215 | 167 | ||
| Cleveland | 88.2 | 89.3 | 87.2 | 1-9-0 | 115 | 263 | ||
| AFC South | PiRate | Mean | Biased | W-L-T | Pts | Opp | ||
| Indianapolis | 111.1 | 108.6 | 108.9 | 10-0-0 | 269 | 157 | ||
| Houston | 102.4 | 102.0 | 101.6 | 5-5-0 | 232 | 208 | ||
| Tennessee | 101.0 | 100.1 | 101.6 | 4-6-0 | 209 | 272 | ||
| Jacksonville | 94.0 | 96.4 | 100.0 | 6-4-0 | 199 | 235 | ||
| AFC West | PiRate | Mean | Biased | W-L-T | Pts | Opp | ||
| San Diego | 107.6 | 105.2 | 106.3 | 7-3-0 | 269 | 205 | ||
| Denver | 95.1 | 98.3 | 98.8 | 6-4-0 | 170 | 183 | ||
| Kansas City | 92.2 | 94.6 | 94.5 | 3-7-0 | 169 | 239 | ||
| Oakland | 91.1 | 91.5 | 93.1 | 3-7-0 | 108 | 234 | ||
| This Week’s Games | ||||||
| Home Team in CAPS | (N) Denotes Neutral Site | |||||
| HFA for Week 12 = 2.7 | ||||||
| Vegas Line as of 6:00PM EDT Tuesday | ||||||
| Thursday, November 26, 2009 | ||||||
| Favorite | Underdog | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Vegas | Totals |
| Green Bay | DETROIT | 8.0 | 10.6 | 12.3 | 11 | 47 1/2 |
| DALLAS | Oakland | 13.7 | 15.0 | 12.7 | 13 1/2 | 40 |
| DENVER | New York Giants | 5.8 | 1.6 | 2.3 | -7 | 42 |
| Sunday, November 29, 2009 | ||||||
| Favorite | Underdog | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Vegas | Totals |
| Indianapolis | HOUSTON | 6.0 | 3.9 | 4.6 | 3 | 48 |
| CINCINNATI | Cleveland | 17.9 | 17.2 | 20.1 | 14 | 38 1/2 |
| MINNESOTA | Chicago | 14.0 | 11.0 | 13.8 | 10 1/2 | 46 1/2 |
| PHILADELPHIA | Washington | 10.6 | 11.2 | 10.8 | 9 1/2 | 40 1/2 |
| Miami | BUFFALO | 3.5 | 4.6 | 6.0 | 3 | 39 1/2 |
| Arizona | TENNESSEE | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 2 1/2 | 46 1/2 |
| Seattle | ST. LOUIS | 2.6 | 1.1 | -0.8 | 3 | 42 1/2 |
| ATLANTA | Tampa Bay | 15.3 | 13.1 | 17.5 | 12 1/2 | 46 |
| NEW YORK JETS | Carolina | 3.1 | 5.0 | 3.9 | 3 | 41 1/2 |
| SAN FRANCISCO | Jacksonville | 7.4 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 3 | 41 1/2 |
| SAN DIEGO | Kansas City | 18.1 | 13.3 | 15.5 | 13 1/2 | 45 |
| BALTIMORE | Pittsburgh | 6.0 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 2 1/2 | 39 1/2 |
| Monday, November 30, 2009 | ||||||
| Favorite | Underdog | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Vegas | Totals |
| NEW ORLEANS | New England | 4.8 | 3.7 | 5.1 | 3 | 56 1/2 |
The Pi-Rate Ratings 