PiRate Ratings and Spreads For College Football–November 17-21, 2009

Down The Stretch They Come

 

November has certainly already seen a host of upsets in the college football world, and we here at the PiRate Ratings believe big surprises are still to come.  With six undefeated teams (Florida, Alabama, Texas, TCU, Cincinnati, and Boise State), we see at least two falling before the bowl season.  Obviously, either Alabama or Florida must lose. The last time five teams finished the regular season winning every game was 1951, when Maryland, Tennessee, Michigan State, San Francisco, and Princeton did the trick.

 

The first wave of rivalry games begin this week, topped off by “The Big Game” in Palo Alto between Stanford and Cal.  The Cardinal now have a shot at winning the Pac-10 and earning a trip to Pasadena to face Ohio State.

 

Speaking of the Buckeyes, Ohio State ventures to the Big House to take on Michigan.  The Wolverines must win to gain bowl eligibility, and a loss will send several dozen more Maize & Blue fans to www.firerrod.com.

 

NCAA Top 25 For November 16, 2009
Rank	Team	PiRate	Won	Lost
1	Texas	136.9	10	0
2	Florida	131.9	10	0
3	Alabama	129.9	9	0
4	Oklahoma	129.5	6	4
5	T C U	125.0	10	0
6	Georgia Tech	121.5	10	1
7	Boise St.	120.2	10	0
8	Oregon	119.9	8	2
9	Va. Tech	118.6	7	3
10	Stanford	118.0	7	3
11	Ohio St.	117.9	9	2
12	Nebraska	117.5	7	3
13	Okla. St.	117.0	8	2
14	Southern Cal	116.9	7	3
15	Ole Miss	116.7	7	3
16	Miami (Fla.)	116.1	7	3
17	Pittsburgh	115.6	9	1
18	Clemson	115.4	7	3
19	Cincinnati	115.2	10	0
20	Penn St.	115.1	9	2
21	Iowa	115.1	9	2
22	Arkansas	115.0	6	4
23	California	113.3	7	3
24	L  S  U	112.3	8	2
25	Texas Tech	112.3	6	4
Note: Ratings rounded to one decimal point
even though I rank them to two decimal points

 

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Clemson	5-2	7-3	115.4
Boston College	4-2	7-3	110.6
Florida State	3-4	5-5	109.3
Wake Forest	2-5	4-7	104.0
North Carolina State	1-5	4-6	102.1
Maryland	1-5	2-8	90.7
Coastal Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Georgia Tech	7-1	10-1	121.5
Virginia Tech	4-2	7-3	118.6
Miami-FL	4-3	7-3	116.1
North Carolina	3-3	7-3	109.6
Duke	3-3	5-5	99.2
Virginia	2-5	3-7	94.9

 

Big East Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Pittsburgh	5-0	9-1	115.6
Cincinnati	6-0	10-0	115.2
West Virginia	3-2	7-3	104.5
Rutgers	2-2	7-2	104.2
Connecticut	1-4	4-5	103.1
South Florida	2-3	6-3	102.9
Syracuse	0-5	3-7	92.5
Louisville	1-4	4-6	91.8

 

Big Ten
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Ohio State	6-1	9-2	117.9
Penn State	5-2	9-2	115.1
Iowa	5-2	9-2	115.1
Wisconsin	5-2	8-2	106.1
Michigan State	4-3	6-5	104.1
Northwestern	4-3	7-4	98.5
Minnesota	3-4	6-5	97.6
Purdue	3-4	4-7	96.8
Michigan	1-6	5-6	96.3
Illinois	2-6	3-7	95.4
Indiana	1-6	4-7	93.1

 

Big 12
North Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Nebraska	4-2	7-3	117.5
Missouri	2-4	6-4	104.6
Kansas	1-5	5-5	104.1
Kansas State	4-3	6-5	98.6
Colorado	2-4	3-7	95.2
Iowa State	3-4	6-5	95.0
South Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Texas	6-0	10-0	136.9
Oklahoma	4-2	6-4	129.5
Oklahoma State	5-1	8-2	117.0
Texas Tech	3-3	6-4	112.3
Baylor	1-5	4-6	101.2
Texas A&M	2-4	5-5	95.1

 

Conference USA
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
East Carolina	5-1	6-4	103.8
Southern Mississippi	4-2	6-4	100.9
Central Florida	4-2	6-4	98.1
Marshall	3-3	5-5	95.5
U A B	4-2	5-5	91.0
Memphis	1-5	2-8	83.0
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Houston	4-2	8-2	104.4
Tulsa	2-4	4-6	92.9
S M U	5-1	6-4	90.2
U T E P	2-4	3-7	89.9
Rice	1-5	1-9	77.3
Tulane	1-5	3-7	75.4

 

Independents
Team		Overall	Rating
Notre Dame		6-4	107.1
Navy		8-3	103.2
Army		3-7	81.9

 

Mid American Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Temple	6-0	8-2	101.4
Ohio U	5-1	7-3	91.3
Bowling Green	4-2	5-5	90.6
Buffalo	1-5	3-7	90.5
Kent St.	4-2	5-5	87.4
Akron	1-5	2-8	81.8
Miami (O)	1-6	1-10	77.9
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Central Michigan	6-0	8-2	107.1
Northern Illinois	5-1	7-3	95.8
Western Michigan	4-3	5-6	88.2
Toledo	2-4	4-6	86.3
Ball State	1-5	1-9	82.4
Eastern Michigan	0-6	0-10	75.5

 

Mountain West Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
T C U	6-0	10-0	125.0
B Y U	5-1	8-2	110.9
Utah	5-1	8-2	105.8
Air Force	5-2	7-4	101.3
Colo. State	0-6	3-7	88.5
Wyoming	3-3	5-5	87.9
UNLV	2-5	4-7	86.8
S. D. State	2-4	4-6	86.6
New Mexico	0-6	0-10	75.8

 

Pac-10 Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Oregon	6-1	8-2	119.9
Stanford	6-2	7-3	118.0
Southern Cal	4-3	7-3	116.9
California	4-3	7-3	113.3
Arizona	4-2	6-3	111.2
Oregon St.	5-2	7-3	109.5
U C L A	2-5	5-5	105.6
Arizona St.	2-5	4-6	102.6
Washington	2-5	3-7	97.3
Wash. St.	0-7	1-9	73.7

 

Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Florida	8-0	10-0	131.9
Tennessee	2-4	5-5	111.3
Georgia	4-3	6-4	109.2
South Carolina	3-5	6-5	108.2
Kentucky	2-4	6-4	103.6
Vanderbilt	0-7	2-9	92.5
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Alabama	7-0	10-0	129.9
Ole Miss	3-3	7-3	116.7
Arkansas	2-4	6-4	115.0
L S U	4-2	8-2	112.3
Auburn	3-4	7-4	105.3
Mississippi State	2-4	4-6	101.4

 

Sunbelt Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Troy	6-0	7-3	97.6
Middle Tennessee	5-1	7-3	92.4
Louisiana-Monroe	5-1	6-4	89.3
Arkansas State	1-4	2-7	89.0
Florida Atlantic	3-2	3-6	84.0
U. of Louisiana	3-3	5-5	83.2
Florida International	3-4	3-7	82.9
North Texas	1-6	2-8	76.1
Western Kentucky	0-6	0-10	73.3

 

Western Athletic Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Boise State	5-0	10-0	120.2
Nevada	6-0	7-3	107.1
Fresno State	5-2	6-4	99.7
Louisiana Tech	2-4	3-7	96.5
Utah State	2-4	3-7	91.8
Idaho	4-3	7-4	90.3
Hawaii	2-5	4-6	85.0
San Jose State	0-5	1-8	82.2
New Mexico State	1-4	3-7	71.6

 

This Week’s Games–PiRate & Mean Ratings
Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
Wednesday, November 18		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Mean
Central Michigan	BALL STATE	22.2	38-16	20
Buffalo	MIAMI (O)	10.1	27-17	3
Thursday, November 19		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Mean
OKLAHOMA STATE	Colorado	24.8	38-13	21
Friday, November 20		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Mean
BOWLING GREEN	Akron	11.5	35-23	15
TOLEDO	E  M  U	13.8	41-27	15
Boise State	UTAH STATE	25.4	35-10	25
Saturday, November 21		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Mean
Ohio State	MICHIGAN	18.1	35-17	16
Northern Illinois	OHIO U	1.5	26-24	-1
CLEMSON	Virginia	23.8	34-10	19
Wisconsin	NORTHWESTERN	4.6	28-23	7
IOWA	Minnesota	20.5	35-14	14
SOUTH FLORIDA	Louisville	14.1	24-10	12
Rutgers	SYRACUSE	8.7	30-21	12
Purdue	INDIANA	1.0	35-34	0
FLORIDA STATE	Maryland	21.6	40-18	18
BOSTON COLLEGE	North Carolina	4.0	21-17	3
VIRGINIA TECH	North Carolina State	19.8	34-14	21
MISSOURI	Iowa State	12.6	34-21	9
TENNESSEE	Vanderbilt	21.8	28-6	19
GEORGIA	Kentucky	8.6	33-24	6
TEMPLE	Kent State	17.0	38-21	13
T  c  u	WYOMING	34.1	44-10	26
ARKANSAS	Mississippi State	16.6	45-28	10
NOTRE DAME	Connecticut	7.0	35-28	6
Oregon State	WASHINGTON STATE	33.1	40-7	25
Penn State	MICHIGAN STATE	8.0	31-23	5
U  C  L  A	Arizona State	6.0	27-21	5
STANFORD	California	7.2	30-23	7
OLE MISS	L  s  u	7.4	31-24	1
B  Y  U	Air Force	12.6	27-14	7
EAST CAROLINA	U  a  b	15.8	37-21	10
NEBRASKA	Kansas State	22.4	31-9	15
Oklahoma	TEXAS TECH	13.2	34-21	2
Baylor	TEXAS A&M	3.1	27-24	-5
U  t  e  p	RICE	10.1	37-27	5
UTAH	San Diego State	22.2	35-13	21
FRESNO STATE	La. Tech	6.5	31-24	11
Colorado State	NEW MEXICO	9.7	24-14	8
Oregon	ARIZONA	5.4	31-26	4
MARSHALL	S  m  u	8.3	31-23	4
SOUTHERN MISS	Tulsa	11.0	31-20	9
TEXAS	Kansas	36.3	50-14	29
MIAMI (FLA)	Duke	19.9	37-17	17
HOUSTON	Memphis	24.4	55-31	23
CENTRAL FLORIDA	Tulane	25.7	40-14	20
Nevada	NEW MEXICO ST.	32.8	50-17	22
SAN JOSE ST.	Hawaii	0.7	28-27	-3
FLORIDA	Florida Int’l	52.0	52-0	41
Army	NORTH TEXAS	2.3	24-22	0
TROY	Florida Atlantic	16.6	34-17	14
UL-Monroe	UL-LAFAYETTE	3.6	27-23	2
MIDDLE TENNESSEE	Arkansas State	6.4	28-22	13

 

Bowl Speculating

 

Ohio State has become the second team to know where they will be bowling this year and the first team to clinch a BCS Bowl Bid.  However, the weekend may have muddied up the bowl projections more than helped clear things up.

 

The Atlantic Coast Conference

Georgia Tech continues to impress every week, and the Yellow Jackets have clinched the Coastal Division championship.  Clemson needs only to beat Virginia to earn the Atlantic Division title.  It is our opinion that Clemson will beat Georgia Tech in a rematch for the ACC Championship and Orange Bowl Bid.  At 11-2, the Yellow Jackets could still gain an at-large BCS Bowl Bid, but it would have to come at the expense of a 13-0 Boise State team.  With Wake Forest being ousted from bowl talk, it looks like the ACC will come up at least one team short and possibly two.  Duke must beat Wake Forest to get to six wins and make it to their first bowl in 15 years.

 

1. Orange Bowl—Clemson

2. Chick-fil-A—Virginia Tech

3. Gator—Georgia Tech

4. Champs Sports—Miami (Fl)

5. Music City—North Carolina

6. Meineke Car Care—Boston College

7. Emerald—Florida State

8. Eagle Bank—Duke

9. GMAC—No Team Available

 

The Big East

Cincinnati just escaped against West Virginia, while Pittsburgh handled Notre Dame.  The Panthers game with the Mountaineers in the “Backyard Brawl” actually doesn’t matter this year.  The winner of the Pitt-Cincinnati game wins the championship.  We’ll go with Coach Dave Wannstedt’s Panthers.  Cincinnati could qualify as an at-large BCS team at 11-1, but we don’t think the big bowls will take the Bearcats.  That might be the final straw for Brian Kelly in the Queen City.  He may bolt for South Bend or even Ann Arbor.

 

1. Orange Bowl—Pittsburgh

2. Sun—Cincinnati

3. Meineke Car Care—Rutgers

4. Papa John’s—South Florida

5. International—West Virginia

6. St. Petersburg—Connecticut

 

The Big Ten

Ohio State clinched the Big Ten Championship and Rose Bowl bid with the overtime win over Iowa.  It now looks like the second best team in this league will earn a last-minute BCS at-large bid.  If Iowa wins this week against Minnesota, the Hawkeyes should get that bid.

 

Michigan will not be bowl eligible after losing at home to Ohio State this weekend, so if the Big 10 gets a second BCS bowl team, they will come up one short.

 

1. Rose-OHIO STATE (accepted bid)

2. Fiesta—Iowa

3. Capital One—Wisconsin

4. Outback—Penn State

5. Alamo—Michigan State

6. Champs Sports—Minnesota

7. Insight—Northwestern

8. Pizza—No team available

 

The Big 12

Texas should quickly dispose of Kansas and Texas A&M to reach the Big 12 Title game, but a possible game against Nebraska could be quite interesting.  For now, we will stick with the notion that the Longhorns will run the table and make it to the National Championship Game.  If the Cornhuskers win out, they should still garner the Cotton Bowl bid if they lose to Texas.  With Iowa State winning its sixth game, and the only chance this conference has of getting a second team in the BCS being a Nebraska upset of Texas, we believe there will be one excess team.  However, that extra team will be 6-6 and out of luck.

 

1. National Championship—Texas

2. Cotton–Nebraska

3. Holiday—Oklahoma

4. Alamo—Oklahoma State

5. Sun—Missouri

6. Insight—Texas Tech

7. Independence—Kansas State

8. Texas—Texas A&M

 

Iowa State out of luck at 6-6

 

Conference USA

As Chester A. Riley would have said, “What a revoltin’ development this is!”  Houston’s loss to Central Florida has thrust SMU into first place in the West Division.  If Coach June Jones’ Mustangs beat Marshall this week, they are in the CUSA Championship Game.  Central Florida is now thickly in the East Division race, but it is now a four-team battle.  If UAB beats East Carolina and UCF, the Blazers would win the division title.  Who would have ever thought that on November 16, the CUSA Championship Game could still be a battle between SMU and UAB?

 

1. Liberty—East Carolina

2. Hawaii—Houston

3. Armed Forces—S M U

4. New Orleans—Southern Miss

5. St. Petersburg—Central Florida

 

Marshall & UAB at 6-6 will miss out on bowl bids

 

Independents

There’s no confusion here.  Navy has earned a Texas Bowl bid.  Army has failed to earn the Eagle Bank Bowl bid that is reserved for them this year.  Notre Dame’s BCS bowl hopes are gone and barring wins over both Connecticut and Stanford, the Irish won’t earn the Sun or Gator Bowl bids that they could receive.  However, with one more win, they become the top non-BCS at-large bowl hopeful.

 

1. Texas—Navy

2. Eagle Bank—Notre Dame (at-large)

 

Mid-American

The MAC will benefit from all the bowls that will need to seek at-large participants.  This league receives three automatic bowl bids, but we expect five schools to go bowling.  Central Michigan played in the Motor City Bowl last year (now the Pizza Bowl), so the Chippewas will probably be sent south to Mobile.

 

The Pizza Bowl will not have a Big 10 representative, and while they’d love to lure Notre Dame, the Irish will go to the highest bidder.  That will force them to invite a second MAC team.

 

1. G M A C—Central Michigan

2. Pizza—Temple

3. International—Ohio U

4. Humanitarian—Northern Illinois (at-large)

5. Pizza—Bowling Green (at-large)

 

Mountain West

T C U plays at Wyoming this weekend, and the Cowboys will be ready to give them all they can handle.  We think TCU will win by double digits, but it is one of those ambush situations.  A home finale with winless New Mexico will be little more than a scrimmage.

 

BYU and Utah close the regular season with their rivalry match, and the winner should wind up in Vegas.  Air Force has wrapped up the fourth bowl bid, and Wyoming is one win away from sneaking in as the fifth.  We expect them to beat Colorado State and get it.

 

1. Fiesta—T C U

2. Las Vegas—Utah

3. Poinsettia—B Y U

4. Armed Forces—Air Force

5. New Mexico—Wyoming

6. Humanitarian—No team available

 

Pac-10

This is another interesting race.  If Arizona beats Oregon this week, and Stanford beats California, then Arizona, Oregon, Oregon State, and Stanford will be tied for first with two conference losses.  Arizona would then win the Pac-10 and get the Rose Bowl bid.  However, the Wildcats must finish at Arizona State and at Southern Cal, and we see them failing to get to 7-2.  If Arizona beats Oregon, and Stanford beats Cal, then the Cardinal would be heading to Pasadena, unless Oregon State could win at Oregon “The Civil War.”  At 7-2, Oregon State gets the tiebreaker over Stanford.

 

1. Rose—Stanford

2. Holiday—Oregon

3. Sun—Southern Cal

4. Las Vegas—Arizona

5. Emerald—Oregon State

6. Poinsettia—California

 

U C L A will finish 6-6 and not receive a bid

 

Southeastern

Alabama will practice with Chattanooga this week, and then finish the regular season at Auburn.  It could be interesting for a half, but the Tide will head to Atlanta at 12-0.  Florida also has a breather with Florida International, but they have a tough finale with Florida State.  We believe the Seminoles have a small shot at pulling off the big upset.

 

With two BCS bowl bids virtually a certainty, the SEC will send 10 teams to bowls this year.

 

1. National Championship—Alabama

2. Sugar—Florida

3. Capital One—Ole Miss

4. Cotton—L S U

5. Outback—Tennessee

6. Chick-fil-A—Auburn

7. Music City—Georgia

8. Liberty—Arkansas

9. Independence—South Carolina

10. Papa John’s—Kentucky

 

Sunbelt

Troy has just about clinched the conference championship, so they will receive the sole automatic bowl bid.  Middle Tennessee has already reached the magic seven win mark, so the Blue Raiders will get an at-large bid.

 

1. New Orleans—Troy

2. G M A C—Middle Tennessee (at-large)

 

Western Athletic

Boise State cannot chalk up a perfect regular season just yet.  The Broncos still must face the most potent offense in the nation.  Nevada must play at Bronco Stadium, so Boise State should win and finish 13-0.  We strongly believe that while the BCS Bowls would rather invite a two-loss team from one of the big six conferences, they will have their arms pulled and be highly coerced into inviting a second non-BCS team into the BCS Bowl structure.  It’s funny how the threat of a Justice Department investigation can determine bowl participants.

 

1. Sugar—Boise State

2. Hawaii—Fresno State

3. New Mexico—Nevada

4. Humanitarian—Idaho

 

• * = At-large selection
• ALL CAPS AND BOLD = ACCEPTED BID

Bowl	Team	vs.	Team
New Mexico	Wyoming	vs.	Nevada
St. Petersburg	Connecticut	vs.	Central Fla
New Orleans	Troy	vs.	Southern Miss
Las Vegas	Utah	vs.	Arizona
Poinsettia	B Y U	vs.	California
Hawaii	Fresno St.	vs.	Houston
Little Caesar’s Pizza	Bowling Green *	vs.	Temple
Meineke Car Care	Boston College	vs.	Rutgers
Emerald	Oregon State	vs.	Florida State
Music City	Georgia	vs.	North Carolina
Independence	South Carolina	vs.	Kansas State
Eagle Bank	Duke	vs.	Notre Dame *
Champs Sports	Miami-Fl	vs.	Northwestern
Humanitarian	Idaho	vs.	Northern Illinois *
Holiday	Oklahoma	vs.	Oregon
Armed Forces	S M U	vs.	Air Force
Sun	Southern Cal	vs.	Missouri
Texas	Texas A&M	vs.	NAVY
Insight.com	Texas Tech	vs.	Minnesota
Chick-fil-A	Auburn	vs.	Va. Tech
Outback	Tennessee	vs.	Penn State
Capital One	Wisconsin	vs.	Ole Miss
Gator	Cincinnati	vs.	Ga. Tech
Rose	Stanford	vs.	OHIO STATE
Sugar	Florida	vs.	Boise State
International	West Virginia	vs.	Ohio U
Cotton	Nebraska	vs.	L S U
Papajohns.com	South Florida	vs.	Kentucky
Liberty	Arkansas	vs.	East Carolina
Alamo	Oklahoma St.	vs.	Michigan St.
Fiesta	Iowa	vs.	T C U
Orange	Clemson	vs.	Pittsburgh
G M A C	Middle Tennessee *	vs.	Central Mich.
National Championship	Alabama	vs.	Texas