The Pi-Rate Ratings

November 16, 2009

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For College Football–November 17-21, 2009

Down The Stretch They Come

 

November has certainly already seen a host of upsets in the college football world, and we here at the PiRate Ratings believe big surprises are still to come.  With six undefeated teams (Florida, Alabama, Texas, TCU, Cincinnati, and Boise State), we see at least two falling before the bowl season.  Obviously, either Alabama or Florida must lose. The last time five teams finished the regular season winning every game was 1951, when Maryland, Tennessee, Michigan State, San Francisco, and Princeton did the trick.

 

The first wave of rivalry games begin this week, topped off by “The Big Game” in Palo Alto between Stanford and Cal.  The Cardinal now have a shot at winning the Pac-10 and earning a trip to Pasadena to face Ohio State.

 

Speaking of the Buckeyes, Ohio State ventures to the Big House to take on Michigan.  The Wolverines must win to gain bowl eligibility, and a loss will send several dozen more Maize & Blue fans to www.firerrod.com.

 

NCAA Top 25 For November 16, 2009
Rank Team PiRate Won Lost
1 Texas 136.9 10 0
2 Florida  131.9 10 0
3 Alabama 129.9 9 0
4 Oklahoma 129.5 6 4
5 T C U 125.0 10 0
6 Georgia Tech 121.5 10 1
7 Boise St. 120.2 10 0
8 Oregon 119.9 8 2
9 Va. Tech 118.6 7 3
10 Stanford 118.0 7 3
11 Ohio St. 117.9 9 2
12 Nebraska 117.5 7 3
13 Okla. St. 117.0 8 2
14 Southern Cal 116.9 7 3
15 Ole Miss 116.7 7 3
16 Miami (Fla.) 116.1 7 3
17 Pittsburgh 115.6 9 1
18 Clemson 115.4 7 3
19 Cincinnati 115.2 10 0
20 Penn St. 115.1 9 2
21 Iowa 115.1 9 2
22 Arkansas 115.0 6 4
23 California 113.3 7 3
24 L  S  U 112.3 8 2
25 Texas Tech 112.3 6 4

 

 

     
Note: Ratings rounded to one decimal point
even though I rank them to two decimal points

 

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division

 

 

 

Team Conf. Overall Rating
Clemson 5-2 7-3 115.4
Boston College 4-2 7-3 110.6
Florida State 3-4 5-5 109.3
Wake Forest 2-5 4-7 104.0
North Carolina State 1-5 4-6 102.1
Maryland 1-5 2-8 90.7

 

 

 

 

Coastal Division

 

 

 

Team Conf. Overall Rating
Georgia Tech 7-1 10-1 121.5
Virginia Tech 4-2 7-3 118.6
Miami-FL 4-3 7-3 116.1
North Carolina 3-3 7-3 109.6
Duke 3-3 5-5 99.2
Virginia 2-5 3-7 94.9

 

Big East Conference
 

 

 

 

Team Conf. Overall Rating
Pittsburgh 5-0 9-1 115.6
Cincinnati 6-0 10-0 115.2
West Virginia 3-2 7-3 104.5
Rutgers 2-2 7-2 104.2
Connecticut 1-4 4-5 103.1
South Florida 2-3 6-3 102.9
Syracuse 0-5 3-7 92.5
Louisville 1-4 4-6 91.8

 

Big Ten

 

 

 

 

Team Conf. Overall Rating
Ohio State 6-1 9-2 117.9
Penn State 5-2 9-2 115.1
Iowa 5-2 9-2 115.1
Wisconsin 5-2 8-2 106.1
Michigan State 4-3 6-5 104.1
Northwestern 4-3 7-4 98.5
Minnesota 3-4 6-5 97.6
Purdue 3-4 4-7 96.8
Michigan 1-6 5-6 96.3
Illinois 2-6 3-7 95.4
Indiana 1-6 4-7 93.1

 

Big 12
North Division

 

 

 

Team Conf. Overall Rating
Nebraska 4-2 7-3 117.5
Missouri 2-4 6-4 104.6
Kansas 1-5 5-5 104.1
Kansas State 4-3 6-5 98.6
Colorado 2-4 3-7 95.2
Iowa State 3-4 6-5 95.0

 

 

 

 

South Division

 

 

 

Team Conf. Overall Rating
Texas 6-0 10-0 136.9
Oklahoma 4-2 6-4 129.5
Oklahoma State 5-1 8-2 117.0
Texas Tech 3-3 6-4 112.3
Baylor 1-5 4-6 101.2
Texas A&M 2-4 5-5 95.1

 

Conference USA
East Division

 

 

 

Team Conf. Overall Rating
East Carolina 5-1 6-4 103.8
Southern Mississippi 4-2 6-4 100.9
Central Florida 4-2 6-4 98.1
Marshall 3-3 5-5 95.5
U A B 4-2 5-5 91.0
Memphis 1-5 2-8 83.0

 

 

 

 

West Division

 

 

 

Team Conf. Overall Rating
Houston 4-2 8-2 104.4
Tulsa 2-4 4-6 92.9
S M U 5-1 6-4 90.2
U T E P 2-4 3-7 89.9
Rice 1-5 1-9 77.3
Tulane 1-5 3-7 75.4

 

Independents

 

 

 

 

Team   Overall Rating
Notre Dame

 

6-4 107.1
Navy

 

8-3 103.2
Army

 

3-7 81.9

 

Mid American Conference
East Division

 

 

 

Team Conf. Overall Rating
Temple 6-0 8-2 101.4
Ohio U 5-1 7-3 91.3
Bowling Green 4-2 5-5 90.6
Buffalo 1-5 3-7 90.5
Kent St. 4-2 5-5 87.4
Akron 1-5 2-8 81.8
Miami (O) 1-6 1-10 77.9

 

 

 

 

West Division

 

 

 

Team Conf. Overall Rating
Central Michigan 6-0 8-2 107.1
Northern Illinois 5-1 7-3 95.8
Western Michigan 4-3 5-6 88.2
Toledo 2-4 4-6 86.3
Ball State 1-5 1-9 82.4
Eastern Michigan 0-6 0-10 75.5

 

Mountain West Conference

 

 

 

 

Team Conf. Overall Rating
T C U 6-0 10-0 125.0
B Y U 5-1 8-2 110.9
Utah 5-1 8-2 105.8
Air Force 5-2 7-4 101.3
Colo. State 0-6 3-7 88.5
Wyoming 3-3 5-5 87.9
UNLV 2-5 4-7 86.8
S. D. State 2-4 4-6 86.6
New Mexico 0-6 0-10 75.8

 

Pac-10 Conference

 

 

 

 

Team Conf. Overall Rating
Oregon 6-1 8-2 119.9
Stanford 6-2 7-3 118.0
Southern Cal 4-3 7-3 116.9
California 4-3 7-3 113.3
Arizona 4-2 6-3 111.2
Oregon St. 5-2 7-3 109.5
U C L A 2-5 5-5 105.6
Arizona St. 2-5 4-6 102.6
Washington 2-5 3-7 97.3
Wash. St. 0-7 1-9 73.7

 

Southeastern Conference
East Division

 

 

 

Team Conf. Overall Rating
Florida 8-0 10-0 131.9
Tennessee 2-4 5-5 111.3
Georgia 4-3 6-4 109.2
South Carolina 3-5 6-5 108.2
Kentucky 2-4 6-4 103.6
Vanderbilt 0-7 2-9 92.5

 

 

 

 

West Division

 

 

 

Team Conf. Overall Rating
Alabama 7-0 10-0 129.9
Ole Miss 3-3 7-3 116.7
Arkansas 2-4 6-4 115.0
L S U 4-2 8-2 112.3
Auburn 3-4 7-4 105.3
Mississippi State 2-4 4-6 101.4

 

Sunbelt Conference

 

 

 

 

Team Conf. Overall Rating
Troy 6-0 7-3 97.6
Middle Tennessee 5-1 7-3 92.4
Louisiana-Monroe 5-1 6-4 89.3
Arkansas State 1-4 2-7 89.0
Florida Atlantic 3-2 3-6 84.0
U. of Louisiana 3-3 5-5 83.2
Florida International 3-4 3-7 82.9
North Texas 1-6 2-8 76.1
Western Kentucky 0-6 0-10 73.3

 

Western Athletic Conference

 

 

 

 

Team Conf. Overall Rating
Boise State 5-0 10-0 120.2
Nevada 6-0 7-3 107.1
Fresno State 5-2 6-4 99.7
Louisiana Tech 2-4 3-7 96.5
Utah State 2-4 3-7 91.8
Idaho 4-3 7-4 90.3
Hawaii 2-5 4-6 85.0
San Jose State 0-5 1-8 82.2
New Mexico State 1-4 3-7 71.6

 

This Week’s Games–PiRate & Mean Ratings
Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Wednesday, November 18

 

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog Score Mean
Central Michigan BALL STATE 22.2 38-16 20
Buffalo MIAMI (O) 10.1 27-17 3

 

 

 

 

 

Thursday, November 19

 

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog Score Mean
OKLAHOMA STATE Colorado 24.8 38-13 21

 

 

 

 

 

Friday, November 20

 

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog Score Mean
BOWLING GREEN Akron 11.5 35-23 15
TOLEDO E  M  U 13.8 41-27 15
Boise State UTAH STATE 25.4 35-10 25

 

 

 

 

 

Saturday, November 21

 

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog Score Mean
Ohio State MICHIGAN 18.1 35-17 16
Northern Illinois OHIO U 1.5 26-24 -1
CLEMSON Virginia 23.8 34-10 19
Wisconsin NORTHWESTERN 4.6 28-23 7
IOWA Minnesota 20.5 35-14 14
SOUTH FLORIDA Louisville 14.1 24-10 12
Rutgers SYRACUSE 8.7 30-21 12
Purdue INDIANA 1.0 35-34 0
FLORIDA STATE Maryland 21.6 40-18 18
BOSTON COLLEGE North Carolina 4.0 21-17 3
VIRGINIA TECH North Carolina State 19.8 34-14 21
MISSOURI Iowa State 12.6 34-21 9
TENNESSEE Vanderbilt 21.8 28-6 19
GEORGIA Kentucky 8.6 33-24 6
TEMPLE Kent State 17.0 38-21 13
T  c  u WYOMING 34.1 44-10 26
ARKANSAS Mississippi State 16.6 45-28 10
NOTRE DAME Connecticut 7.0 35-28 6
Oregon State WASHINGTON STATE 33.1 40-7 25
Penn State MICHIGAN STATE 8.0 31-23 5
U  C  L  A Arizona State 6.0 27-21 5
STANFORD California 7.2 30-23 7
OLE MISS L  s  u 7.4 31-24 1
B  Y  U Air Force 12.6 27-14 7
EAST CAROLINA U  a  b 15.8 37-21 10
NEBRASKA Kansas State 22.4 31-9 15
Oklahoma TEXAS TECH 13.2 34-21 2
Baylor TEXAS A&M 3.1 27-24 -5
U  t  e  p RICE 10.1 37-27 5
UTAH San Diego State 22.2 35-13 21
FRESNO STATE La. Tech 6.5 31-24 11
Colorado State NEW MEXICO 9.7 24-14 8
Oregon ARIZONA 5.4 31-26 4
MARSHALL S  m  u 8.3 31-23 4
SOUTHERN MISS Tulsa 11.0 31-20 9
TEXAS Kansas 36.3 50-14 29
MIAMI (FLA) Duke 19.9 37-17 17
HOUSTON Memphis 24.4 55-31 23
CENTRAL FLORIDA Tulane 25.7 40-14 20
Nevada NEW MEXICO ST. 32.8 50-17 22
SAN JOSE ST. Hawaii 0.7 28-27 -3
FLORIDA Florida Int’l 52.0 52-0 41
Army NORTH TEXAS 2.3 24-22 0
TROY Florida Atlantic 16.6 34-17 14
UL-Monroe UL-LAFAYETTE 3.6 27-23 2
MIDDLE TENNESSEE Arkansas State 6.4 28-22 13

 

Bowl Speculating

 

Ohio State has become the second team to know where they will be bowling this year and the first team to clinch a BCS Bowl Bid.  However, the weekend may have muddied up the bowl projections more than helped clear things up.

 

The Atlantic Coast Conference

Georgia Tech continues to impress every week, and the Yellow Jackets have clinched the Coastal Division championship.  Clemson needs only to beat Virginia to earn the Atlantic Division title.  It is our opinion that Clemson will beat Georgia Tech in a rematch for the ACC Championship and Orange Bowl Bid.  At 11-2, the Yellow Jackets could still gain an at-large BCS Bowl Bid, but it would have to come at the expense of a 13-0 Boise State team.  With Wake Forest being ousted from bowl talk, it looks like the ACC will come up at least one team short and possibly two.  Duke must beat Wake Forest to get to six wins and make it to their first bowl in 15 years.

 

1. Orange Bowl—Clemson

2. Chick-fil-A—Virginia Tech

3. Gator—Georgia Tech

4. Champs Sports—Miami (Fl)

5. Music City—North Carolina

6. Meineke Car Care—Boston College

7. Emerald—Florida State

8. Eagle Bank—Duke

9. GMAC—No Team Available

 

The Big East

Cincinnati just escaped against West Virginia, while Pittsburgh handled Notre Dame.  The Panthers game with the Mountaineers in the “Backyard Brawl” actually doesn’t matter this year.  The winner of the Pitt-Cincinnati game wins the championship.  We’ll go with Coach Dave Wannstedt’s Panthers.  Cincinnati could qualify as an at-large BCS team at 11-1, but we don’t think the big bowls will take the Bearcats.  That might be the final straw for Brian Kelly in the Queen City.  He may bolt for South Bend or even Ann Arbor.

 

1. Orange Bowl—Pittsburgh

2. Sun—Cincinnati

3. Meineke Car Care—Rutgers

4. Papa John’s—South Florida

5. International—West Virginia

6. St. Petersburg—Connecticut

 

The Big Ten

Ohio State clinched the Big Ten Championship and Rose Bowl bid with the overtime win over Iowa.  It now looks like the second best team in this league will earn a last-minute BCS at-large bid.  If Iowa wins this week against Minnesota, the Hawkeyes should get that bid.

 

Michigan will not be bowl eligible after losing at home to Ohio State this weekend, so if the Big 10 gets a second BCS bowl team, they will come up one short.

 

1. Rose-OHIO STATE (accepted bid)

2. Fiesta—Iowa

3. Capital One—Wisconsin

4. Outback—Penn State

5. Alamo—Michigan State

6. Champs Sports—Minnesota

7. Insight—Northwestern

8. Pizza—No team available

 

The Big 12

Texas should quickly dispose of Kansas and Texas A&M to reach the Big 12 Title game, but a possible game against Nebraska could be quite interesting.  For now, we will stick with the notion that the Longhorns will run the table and make it to the National Championship Game.  If the Cornhuskers win out, they should still garner the Cotton Bowl bid if they lose to Texas.  With Iowa State winning its sixth game, and the only chance this conference has of getting a second team in the BCS being a Nebraska upset of Texas, we believe there will be one excess team.  However, that extra team will be 6-6 and out of luck.

 

1. National Championship—Texas

2. Cotton–Nebraska

3. Holiday—Oklahoma

4. Alamo—Oklahoma State

5. Sun—Missouri

6. Insight—Texas Tech

7. Independence—Kansas State

8. Texas—Texas A&M

 

Iowa State out of luck at 6-6

 

Conference USA

As Chester A. Riley would have said, “What a revoltin’ development this is!”  Houston’s loss to Central Florida has thrust SMU into first place in the West Division.  If Coach June Jones’ Mustangs beat Marshall this week, they are in the CUSA Championship Game.  Central Florida is now thickly in the East Division race, but it is now a four-team battle.  If UAB beats East Carolina and UCF, the Blazers would win the division title.  Who would have ever thought that on November 16, the CUSA Championship Game could still be a battle between SMU and UAB?

 

1. Liberty—East Carolina

2. Hawaii—Houston

3. Armed Forces—S M U

4. New Orleans—Southern Miss

5. St. Petersburg—Central Florida

 

Marshall & UAB at 6-6 will miss out on bowl bids

 

Independents

There’s no confusion here.  Navy has earned a Texas Bowl bid.  Army has failed to earn the Eagle Bank Bowl bid that is reserved for them this year.  Notre Dame’s BCS bowl hopes are gone and barring wins over both Connecticut and Stanford, the Irish won’t earn the Sun or Gator Bowl bids that they could receive.  However, with one more win, they become the top non-BCS at-large bowl hopeful.

 

1. Texas—Navy

2. Eagle Bank—Notre Dame (at-large)

 

Mid-American

The MAC will benefit from all the bowls that will need to seek at-large participants.  This league receives three automatic bowl bids, but we expect five schools to go bowling.  Central Michigan played in the Motor City Bowl last year (now the Pizza Bowl), so the Chippewas will probably be sent south to Mobile.

 

The Pizza Bowl will not have a Big 10 representative, and while they’d love to lure Notre Dame, the Irish will go to the highest bidder.  That will force them to invite a second MAC team.

 

1. G M A C—Central Michigan

2. Pizza—Temple

3. International—Ohio U

4. Humanitarian—Northern Illinois (at-large)

5. Pizza—Bowling Green (at-large)

 

Mountain West

T C U plays at Wyoming this weekend, and the Cowboys will be ready to give them all they can handle.  We think TCU will win by double digits, but it is one of those ambush situations.  A home finale with winless New Mexico will be little more than a scrimmage.

 

BYU and Utah close the regular season with their rivalry match, and the winner should wind up in Vegas.  Air Force has wrapped up the fourth bowl bid, and Wyoming is one win away from sneaking in as the fifth.  We expect them to beat Colorado State and get it.

 

1. Fiesta—T C U

2. Las Vegas—Utah

3. Poinsettia—B Y U

4. Armed Forces—Air Force

5. New Mexico—Wyoming

6. Humanitarian—No team available

 

Pac-10

This is another interesting race.  If Arizona beats Oregon this week, and Stanford beats California, then Arizona, Oregon, Oregon State, and Stanford will be tied for first with two conference losses.  Arizona would then win the Pac-10 and get the Rose Bowl bid.  However, the Wildcats must finish at Arizona State and at Southern Cal, and we see them failing to get to 7-2.  If Arizona beats Oregon, and Stanford beats Cal, then the Cardinal would be heading to Pasadena, unless Oregon State could win at Oregon “The Civil War.”  At 7-2, Oregon State gets the tiebreaker over Stanford.

 

1. Rose—Stanford

2. Holiday—Oregon

3. Sun—Southern Cal

4. Las Vegas—Arizona

5. Emerald—Oregon State

6. Poinsettia—California

 

U C L A will finish 6-6 and not receive a bid

 

Southeastern

Alabama will practice with Chattanooga this week, and then finish the regular season at Auburn.  It could be interesting for a half, but the Tide will head to Atlanta at 12-0.  Florida also has a breather with Florida International, but they have a tough finale with Florida State.  We believe the Seminoles have a small shot at pulling off the big upset.

 

With two BCS bowl bids virtually a certainty, the SEC will send 10 teams to bowls this year.

 

1. National Championship—Alabama

2. Sugar—Florida

3. Capital One—Ole Miss

4. Cotton—L S U

5. Outback—Tennessee

6. Chick-fil-A—Auburn

7. Music City—Georgia

8. Liberty—Arkansas

9. Independence—South Carolina

10. Papa John’s—Kentucky

 

Sunbelt

Troy has just about clinched the conference championship, so they will receive the sole automatic bowl bid.  Middle Tennessee has already reached the magic seven win mark, so the Blue Raiders will get an at-large bid.

 

1. New Orleans—Troy

2. G M A C—Middle Tennessee (at-large)

 

Western Athletic

Boise State cannot chalk up a perfect regular season just yet.  The Broncos still must face the most potent offense in the nation.  Nevada must play at Bronco Stadium, so Boise State should win and finish 13-0.  We strongly believe that while the BCS Bowls would rather invite a two-loss team from one of the big six conferences, they will have their arms pulled and be highly coerced into inviting a second non-BCS team into the BCS Bowl structure.  It’s funny how the threat of a Justice Department investigation can determine bowl participants.

 

1. Sugar—Boise State

2. Hawaii—Fresno State

3. New Mexico—Nevada

4. Humanitarian—Idaho

 

  • * = At-large selection
  • ALL CAPS AND BOLD = ACCEPTED BID
Bowl Team vs. Team
New Mexico Wyoming vs. Nevada
St. Petersburg Connecticut vs. Central Fla
New Orleans Troy vs. Southern Miss
Las Vegas Utah vs. Arizona
Poinsettia B Y U vs. California
Hawaii Fresno St. vs. Houston
Little Caesar’s Pizza Bowling Green * vs. Temple
Meineke Car Care Boston College vs. Rutgers
Emerald Oregon State vs. Florida State
Music City Georgia vs. North Carolina
Independence South Carolina vs. Kansas State
Eagle Bank Duke vs. Notre Dame *
Champs Sports Miami-Fl vs. Northwestern
Humanitarian Idaho vs. Northern Illinois *
Holiday Oklahoma vs. Oregon
Armed Forces S M U vs. Air Force
Sun Southern Cal vs. Missouri
Texas Texas A&M vs. NAVY
Insight.com Texas Tech vs. Minnesota
Chick-fil-A Auburn vs. Va. Tech
Outback Tennessee vs. Penn State
Capital One Wisconsin vs. Ole Miss
Gator Cincinnati vs. Ga. Tech
Rose Stanford vs. OHIO STATE
Sugar Florida vs. Boise State
International West Virginia vs. Ohio U
Cotton Nebraska vs. L S U
Papajohns.com South Florida vs. Kentucky
Liberty Arkansas vs. East Carolina
Alamo Oklahoma St. vs. Michigan St.
Fiesta Iowa vs. T C U
Orange Clemson vs. Pittsburgh
G M A C Middle Tennessee * vs. Central Mich.
National Championship Alabama vs. Texas

 

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