Introducing NFL Playoff Projections
If you are a college football fan, you probably have seen multiple Internet sites showing weekly bowl projections. Maybe, you’ve even seen ours. Why not have NFL playoff projections? Unlike college football, the NFL playoff rules are always known. The best two division winners in both leagues receive byes, while the third best division winners host the lowest qualifying wildcards, and the fourth best division winners host the wildcard with the better records.
So, beginning today, we will list our projections. This will not be one of those “if the playoffs started today lists; it will be projections based on where we believe every team will finish.
Let’s start with the AFC. In the East, we believe New England already has clinched the division title and will finish with the second best record among the four division winners.
In the South, we believe Indianapolis could win the division by five or more games and secure home field advantage.
The North is still very much up for grabs, but the way Pittsburgh is playing these days, they could very well finish 12-4 or better.
In the West, Denver may be swooning once again. San Diego’s running game has abandoned them, but the passing of Phillip Rivers may be enough to overtake the Broncos.
Cincinnati should win enough games to grab one wildcard spot, but the other spot should go down to the final week before it is decided. Baltimore has a tough schedule, and we believe the Ravens will fall a game short. Denver and the New York Jets both have great shots at 10 wins. We’ll give the edge to the Jets.
So, as of today, we see the Jets visiting Pittsburgh, and the Bengals visiting San Diego in the opening playoff weekend. The higher remaining seed will play at New England the following week, and the lower remaining seed will play at Indianapolis.
In the NFC, Dallas sure looks like the cream of the East. Don’t count out the Eagles or Giants, but the Cowboys could easily finish 12-4.
New Orleans already has the South race in hand. Whether they can go 16-0 is no matter, because at 13-3, they should still have the best record in the conference.
Minnesota has a three-game lead on the Bears and Packers, and only another Brett Favre injury could prevent the Vikings from winning the North Division.
Arizona may have to fight off a late rush by San Francisco or Seattle, but we believe the Cardinals will repeat in the West.
Philadelphia and the Giants will jockey it out with one team winning 10 and the other winning nine. For now, we’ll go with the Eagles as the lucky 10-win team. We think Atlanta will win 10 games as well and take the top Wildcard spot.
That leaves Philadelphia visiting Arizona and Atlanta playing at Dallas in the opening round of the playoffs. The higher remaining seed will play at Minnesota, while the lower remaining seed goes to New Orleans.
| Current NFL PiRate Ratings | ||||||||
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PiRate | Mean | Biased | W-L-T | Pts | Opp | ||
| Dallas | 104.4 | 106.2 | 105.6 | 6-2-0 | 217 | 152 | ||
| Philadelphia | 103.8 | 104.7 | 104.6 | 5-3-0 | 219 | 153 | ||
| NY Giants | 103.8 | 102.1 | 102.3 | 5-4-0 | 232 | 204 | ||
| Washington | 93.0 | 92.6 | 93.4 | 2-6-0 | 113 | 154 | ||
| NFC North | PiRate | Mean | Biased | W-L-T | Pts | Opp | ||
| Minnesota | 106.5 | 105.8 | 106.6 | 7-1-0 | 244 | 174 | ||
| Green Bay | 99.6 | 99.5 | 100.3 | 4-4-0 | 215 | 172 | ||
| Chicago | 98.6 | 98.2 | 99.9 | 4-4-0 | 180 | 191 | ||
| Detroit | 90.7 | 88.2 | 86.7 | 1-7-0 | 133 | 237 | ||
| NFC South | PiRate | Mean | Biased | W-L-T | Pts | Opp | ||
| New Orleans | 114.1 | 112.5 | 111.2 | 8-0-0 | 303 | 174 | ||
| Atlanta | 104.3 | 104.2 | 104.0 | 5-3-0 | 202 | 166 | ||
| Carolina | 99.1 | 98.2 | 97.5 | 3-5-0 | 148 | 196 | ||
| Tampa Bay | 91.4 | 91.9 | 91.1 | 1-7-0 | 134 | 231 | ||
| NFC West | PiRate | Mean | Biased | W-L-T | Pts | Opp | ||
| Arizona | 103.8 | 104.3 | 103.3 | 5-3-0 | 198 | 164 | ||
| San Francisco | 98.6 | 98.6 | 98.1 | 3-5-0 | 174 | 174 | ||
| Seattle | 96.2 | 96.6 | 96.6 | 3-5-0 | 167 | 167 | ||
| St. Louis | 86.3 | 87.5 | 91.1 | 1-7-0 | 77 | 221 | ||
| AFC East | PiRate | Mean | Biased | W-L-T | Pts | Opp | ||
| New England | 111.5 | 108.8 | 108.7 | 6-2-0 | 225 | 115 | ||
| NY Jets | 101.5 | 102.9 | 101.4 | 4-4-0 | 177 | 134 | ||
| Miami | 99.4 | 102.8 | 99.7 | 3-5-0 | 193 | 204 | ||
| Buffalo | 96.3 | 96.2 | 96.0 | 3-5-0 | 123 | 169 | ||
| AFC North | PiRate | Mean | Biased | W-L-T | Pts | Opp | ||
| Pittsburgh | 109.4 | 106.8 | 106.7 | 6-2-0 | 195 | 139 | ||
| Baltimore | 108.8 | 105.6 | 104.6 | 4-4-0 | 206 | 154 | ||
| Cincinnati | 105.0 | 105.2 | 105.5 | 6-2-0 | 180 | 135 | ||
| Cleveland | 88.0 | 89.4 | 88.2 | 1-7-0 | 78 | 209 | ||
| AFC South | PiRate | Mean | Biased | W-L-T | Pts | Opp | ||
| Indianapolis | 111.0 | 108.7 | 108.0 | 8-0-0 | 217 | 108 | ||
| Houston | 103.8 | 102.9 | 103.0 | 5-4-0 | 215 | 188 | ||
| Tennessee | 97.4 | 97.0 | 98.2 | 2-6-0 | 148 | 238 | ||
| Jacksonville | 92.2 | 94.6 | 97.3 | 4-4-0 | 157 | 198 | ||
| AFC West | PiRate | Mean | Biased | W-L-T | Pts | Opp | ||
| San Diego | 103.7 | 102.3 | 104.1 | 5-3-0 | 206 | 179 | ||
| Denver | 99.3 | 103.1 | 103.4 | 6-2-0 | 150 | 124 | ||
| Oakland | 89.3 | 90.8 | 91.7 | 2-6-0 | 78 | 201 | ||
| Kansas City | 88.5 | 91.9 | 91.2 | 1-7-0 | 126 | 205 | ||
| This Week’s Games | ||||||
| Home Team in CAPS | (N) Denotes Neutral Site | |||||
| HFA for Week 10 = 2.4 | ||||||
| Vegas Line as of 8:30PM EDT Tuesday | ||||||
| Thursday, November 12, 2009 | ||||||
| Favorite | Underdog | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Vegas | Totals |
| SAN FRANCISCO | Chicago | 2.4 | 3.0 | 0.6 | 3 | 43 1/2 |
| Sunday, November 15, 2009 | ||||||
| Favorite | Underdog | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Vegas | Totals |
| NEW YORK JETS | Jacksonville | 11.7 | 10.7 | 6.5 | 7 | 40 |
| Denver | WASHINGTON | 3.9 | 8.1 | 7.6 | 3 1/2 | 36 1/2 |
| PITTSBURGH | Cincinnati | 6.8 | 4.0 | 3.6 | 7 | 41 1/2 |
| TENNESSEE | Buffalo | 3.5 | 3.2 | 4.6 | 6 1/2 | 40 1/2 |
| MINNESOTA | Detroit | 18.2 | 20.0 | 22.3 | 16 1/2 | 47 1/2 |
| New Orleans | ST. LOUIS | 25.4 | 22.6 | 17.7 | 13 1/2 | 50 |
| Atlanta | CAROLINA | 2.8 | 3.6 | 4.1 | 2 | 44 1/2 |
| MIAMI | Tampa Bay | 10.4 | 13.3 | 11.0 | 10 | 44 |
| OAKLAND | Kansas City | 3.2 | 1.3 | 2.9 | 2 | 36 1/2 |
| ARIZONA | Seattle | 10.0 | 10.1 | 9.1 | 8 1/2 | 47 |
| SAN DIEGO | Philadelphia | 2.3 | 0.0 | 1.9 | 2 | 47 |
| Dallas | GREEN BAY | 2.4 | 4.3 | 2.9 | 3 | 47 1/2 |
| INDIANAPOLIS | New England | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 3 | 49 1/2 |
| Monday, November 16, 2009 | ||||||
| Favorite | Underdog | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Vegas | Totals |
| Baltimore | CLEVELAND | 18.4 | 13.8 | 14.0 | 10 1/2 | 40 |
The Pi-Rate Ratings 