The Pi-Rate Ratings

November 10, 2009

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For NFL Week 10: November 12-16, 2009

Introducing NFL Playoff Projections

 

If you are a college football fan, you probably have seen multiple Internet sites showing weekly bowl projections.  Maybe, you’ve even seen ours.  Why not have NFL playoff projections?  Unlike college football, the NFL playoff rules are always known.  The best two division winners in both leagues receive byes, while the third best division winners host the lowest qualifying wildcards, and the fourth best division winners host the wildcard with the better records.

 

So, beginning today, we will list our projections.  This will not be one of those “if the playoffs started today lists; it will be projections based on where we believe every team will finish.

 

Let’s start with the AFC.  In the East, we believe New England already has clinched the division title and will finish with the second best record among the four division winners.

 

In the South, we believe Indianapolis could win the division by five or more games and secure home field advantage.

 

The North is still very much up for grabs, but the way Pittsburgh is playing these days, they could very well finish 12-4 or better. 

 

In the West, Denver may be swooning once again.  San Diego’s running game has abandoned them, but the passing of Phillip Rivers may be enough to overtake the Broncos.

 

Cincinnati should win enough games to grab one wildcard spot, but the other spot should go down to the final week before it is decided.  Baltimore has a tough schedule, and we believe the Ravens will fall a game short.  Denver and the New York Jets both have great shots at 10 wins.  We’ll give the edge to the Jets.

 

So, as of today, we see the Jets visiting Pittsburgh, and the Bengals visiting San Diego in the opening playoff weekend.  The higher remaining seed will play at New England the following week, and the lower remaining seed will play at Indianapolis.

 

In the NFC, Dallas sure looks like the cream of the East.  Don’t count out the Eagles or Giants, but the Cowboys could easily finish 12-4.

 

New Orleans already has the South race in hand.  Whether they can go 16-0 is no matter, because at 13-3, they should still have the best record in the conference.

 

Minnesota has a three-game lead on the Bears and Packers, and only another Brett Favre injury could prevent the Vikings from winning the North Division.

 

Arizona may have to fight off a late rush by San Francisco or Seattle, but we believe the Cardinals will repeat in the West.

 

Philadelphia and the Giants will jockey it out with one team winning 10 and the other winning nine.  For now, we’ll go with the Eagles as the lucky 10-win team.  We think Atlanta will win 10 games as well and take the top Wildcard spot.

 

That leaves Philadelphia visiting Arizona and Atlanta playing at Dallas in the opening round of the playoffs.  The higher remaining seed will play at Minnesota, while the lower remaining seed goes to New Orleans.

 

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
               
               
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NFC East

 

PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Dallas 104.4 106.2 105.6 6-2-0 217 152
Philadelphia 103.8 104.7 104.6 5-3-0 219 153
NY Giants 103.8 102.1 102.3 5-4-0 232 204
Washington 93.0 92.6 93.4 2-6-0 113 154
               
NFC North PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Minnesota 106.5 105.8 106.6 7-1-0 244 174
Green Bay 99.6 99.5 100.3 4-4-0 215 172
Chicago 98.6 98.2 99.9 4-4-0 180 191
Detroit 90.7 88.2 86.7 1-7-0 133 237
               
NFC South PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
New Orleans 114.1 112.5 111.2 8-0-0 303 174
Atlanta 104.3 104.2 104.0 5-3-0 202 166
Carolina   99.1 98.2 97.5 3-5-0 148 196
Tampa Bay 91.4 91.9 91.1 1-7-0 134 231
               
NFC West PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Arizona 103.8 104.3 103.3 5-3-0 198 164
San Francisco 98.6 98.6 98.1 3-5-0 174 174
Seattle 96.2 96.6 96.6 3-5-0 167 167
St. Louis 86.3 87.5 91.1 1-7-0 77 221
               
AFC East PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
New England 111.5 108.8 108.7 6-2-0 225 115
NY Jets 101.5 102.9 101.4 4-4-0 177 134
Miami 99.4 102.8 99.7 3-5-0 193 204
Buffalo 96.3 96.2 96.0 3-5-0 123 169
               
AFC North PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Pittsburgh 109.4 106.8 106.7 6-2-0 195 139
Baltimore 108.8 105.6 104.6 4-4-0 206 154
Cincinnati 105.0 105.2 105.5 6-2-0 180 135
Cleveland 88.0 89.4 88.2 1-7-0 78 209
               
AFC South PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Indianapolis 111.0 108.7 108.0 8-0-0 217 108
Houston 103.8 102.9 103.0 5-4-0 215 188
Tennessee 97.4 97.0 98.2 2-6-0 148 238
Jacksonville 92.2 94.6 97.3 4-4-0 157 198
               
AFC West PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
San Diego 103.7 102.3 104.1 5-3-0 206 179
Denver 99.3 103.1 103.4 6-2-0 150 124
Oakland 89.3 90.8 91.7 2-6-0 78 201
Kansas City 88.5 91.9 91.2 1-7-0 126 205

 

This Week’s Games
Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site          
             
HFA for Week 10 = 2.4            
Vegas Line as of 8:30PM EDT Tuesday            
Thursday, November 12, 2009            
Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vegas Totals
SAN FRANCISCO Chicago 2.4 3.0 0.6 3    43 1/2
             
Sunday, November 15, 2009            
Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vegas Totals
NEW YORK JETS Jacksonville 11.7 10.7 6.5 7    40   
Denver WASHINGTON 3.9 8.1 7.6 3 1/2 36 1/2
PITTSBURGH Cincinnati 6.8 4.0 3.6 7    41 1/2
TENNESSEE Buffalo 3.5 3.2 4.6 6 1/2 40 1/2
MINNESOTA Detroit 18.2 20.0 22.3 16 1/2 47 1/2
New Orleans ST. LOUIS 25.4 22.6 17.7 13 1/2 50   
Atlanta CAROLINA 2.8 3.6 4.1 2    44 1/2
MIAMI Tampa Bay 10.4 13.3 11.0 10    44   
OAKLAND Kansas City 3.2 1.3 2.9 2    36 1/2
ARIZONA Seattle 10.0 10.1 9.1 8 1/2 47   
SAN DIEGO Philadelphia 2.3 0.0 1.9 2    47   
Dallas GREEN BAY 2.4 4.3 2.9 3    47 1/2
INDIANAPOLIS New England 1.9 2.3 1.7 3    49 1/2
             
Monday, November 16, 2009            
Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vegas Totals
Baltimore CLEVELAND 18.4 13.8 14.0 10 1/2 40    

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