Can This Week Be As Wacky As Last Week?
It happens every year; it usually happens in November, so it shouldn’t have come as a surprise. After two thirds of the college season was in the books, teams all of a sudden started acting inconsistently. Teams that couldn’t catch a break started catching breaks. Teams that caught all the breaks stopped catching them.
Teams that had been given up for dead showed a new life. Teams that consistently did something that made themselves very predictable (to the wagering public) did something completely different.
Iowa’s loss was coming. You cannot win games every week by pulling them out in the final minutes. When quarterback Ricky Stanzi went down with an injury, there was going to be no last minute heroics this time.
All of a sudden, Ron Zook’s Illinois team looks like they were supposed to look like in August. Stranger things have happened, but it isn’t impossible that they could finish 6-6 after starting 1-6. It isn’t probable either, because the Illini still have to play Cincinnati and Fresno State outside the Big 10 as well as Northwestern this week to close out conference play.
The two really consistent teams are the two BCS bowl-crashing wannabes. TCU and Boise State both look invincible at the moment. Both have tricky games this week. The Horned Frogs get a one-loss Utah team, while Boise has to worry with in-state rival and bowl eligible Idaho.
| NCAA Top 25 For November 9, 2009 | ||||
| Rank | Team | PiRate | Won | Lost |
| 1 | Texas | 136.5 | 9 | 0 |
| 2 | Florida | 132.9 | 9 | 0 |
| 3 | Alabama | 129.2 | 8 | 0 |
| 4 | Oklahoma | 127.5 | 5 | 4 |
| 5 | T C U | 123.8 | 9 | 0 |
| 6 | Southern Cal | 120.4 | 7 | 2 |
| 7 | Boise St. | 119.9 | 9 | 0 |
| 8 | Oregon | 119.7 | 7 | 2 |
| 9 | Georgia Tech | 118.9 | 9 | 1 |
| 10 | Ohio St. | 118.4 | 8 | 2 |
| 11 | Va. Tech | 118.0 | 6 | 3 |
| 12 | Okla. St. | 117.0 | 7 | 2 |
| 13 | Nebraska | 116.9 | 6 | 3 |
| 14 | Penn St. | 116.8 | 8 | 2 |
| 15 | Miami (Fla.) | 116.7 | 7 | 2 |
| 16 | Cincinnati | 115.5 | 9 | 0 |
| 17 | Pittsburgh | 115.5 | 8 | 1 |
| 18 | Stanford | 115.0 | 6 | 3 |
| 19 | Iowa | 114.6 | 9 | 1 |
| 20 | Clemson | 114.2 | 6 | 3 |
| 21 | Ole Miss | 114.1 | 6 | 3 |
| 22 | Tennessee | 113.9 | 5 | 4 |
| 23 | L S U | 113.6 | 7 | 2 |
| 24 | Arkansas | 113.5 | 5 | 4 |
| 25 | California | 112.6 | 6 | 3 |
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| Note: Ratings rounded to one decimal point | ||||
| even though I rank them to two decimal points | ||||
| Atlantic Coast Conference | |||
| Atlantic Division |
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| Team | Conf. | Overall | Rating |
| Clemson | 4-2 | 6-3 | 114.2 |
| Boston College | 3-2 | 6-3 | 110.8 |
| Florida State | 2-4 | 4-5 | 108.2 |
| Wake Forest | 2-4 | 4-6 | 105.1 |
| North Carolina State | 1-4 | 4-5 | 103.3 |
| Maryland | 1-4 | 2-7 | 91.3 |
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| Coastal Division |
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| Team | Conf. | Overall | Rating |
| Georgia Tech | 6-1 | 9-1 | 118.9 |
| Virginia Tech | 3-2 | 6-3 | 118.0 |
| Miami-FL | 4-2 | 7-2 | 116.7 |
| North Carolina | 2-3 | 6-3 | 109.0 |
| Duke | 3-2 | 5-4 | 101.8 |
| Virginia | 2-3 | 3-6 | 94.7 |
| Big East Conference | |||
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| Team | Conf. | Overall | Rating |
| Cincinnati | 5-0 | 9-0 | 115.5 |
| Pittsburgh | 5-0 | 8-1 | 115.5 |
| South Florida | 2-2 | 6-2 | 105.3 |
| West Virginia | 3-1 | 7-2 | 104.2 |
| Connecticut | 1-4 | 4-5 | 103.1 |
| Rutgers | 1-2 | 6-2 | 101.8 |
| Syracuse | 0-4 | 3-6 | 92.2 |
| Louisville | 0-4 | 3-6 | 92.1 |
| Big Ten | |||
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| Team | Conf. | Overall | Rating |
| Ohio State | 5-1 | 8-2 | 118.4 |
| Penn State | 4-2 | 8-2 | 116.8 |
| Iowa | 5-1 | 9-1 | 114.6 |
| Wisconsin | 4-2 | 7-2 | 105.1 |
| Michigan State | 3-3 | 5-5 | 103.9 |
| Minnesota | 3-4 | 5-5 | 97.9 |
| Northwestern | 3-3 | 6-4 | 97.7 |
| Michigan | 1-5 | 5-5 | 97.3 |
| Purdue | 3-3 | 4-6 | 97.0 |
| Illinois | 2-5 | 3-6 | 96.2 |
| Indiana | 1-5 | 4-6 | 91.4 |
| Big 12 | |||
| North Division |
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| Team | Conf. | Overall | Rating |
| Nebraska | 3-2 | 6-3 | 116.9 |
| Kansas | 1-4 | 5-4 | 104.7 |
| Missouri | 1-4 | 5-4 | 102.8 |
| Kansas State | 4-2 | 6-4 | 100.4 |
| Colorado | 2-3 | 3-6 | 95.7 |
| Iowa State | 2-4 | 5-5 | 94.5 |
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| South Division |
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| Team | Conf. | Overall | Rating |
| Texas | 6-0 | 9-0 | 136.5 |
| Oklahoma | 3-2 | 5-4 | 127.5 |
| Oklahoma State | 4-1 | 7-2 | 117.0 |
| Texas Tech | 3-2 | 6-3 | 112.3 |
| Baylor | 1-4 | 4-5 | 101.6 |
| Texas A&M | 2-3 | 5-4 | 99.1 |
| Conference USA | |||
| East Division |
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| Team | Conf. | Overall | Rating |
| Southern Mississippi | 3-2 | 5-4 | 100.7 |
| East Carolina | 4-1 | 5-4 | 99.8 |
| Marshall | 3-2 | 5-4 | 95.7 |
| Central Florida | 3-2 | 5-4 | 95.3 |
| U A B | 3-2 | 4-5 | 90.3 |
| Memphis | 1-4 | 2-7 | 83.7 |
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| West Division |
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| Team | Conf. | Overall | Rating |
| Houston | 4-1 | 8-1 | 106.2 |
| Tulsa | 2-3 | 4-5 | 96.9 |
| U T E P | 2-3 | 3-6 | 90.1 |
| S M U | 4-1 | 5-4 | 90.0 |
| Rice | 0-5 | 0-9 | 76.7 |
| Tulane | 1-4 | 3-6 | 75.5 |
| Independents | |||
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| Team | Overall | Rating | |
| Notre Dame |
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6-3 | 107.7 |
| Navy |
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7-3 | 102.6 |
| Army |
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3-6 | 82.2 |
| Mid American Conference | |||
| East Division |
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| Team | Conf. | Overall | Rating |
| Temple | 5-0 | 7-2 | 99.2 |
| Buffalo | 1-4 | 3-6 | 91.7 |
| Ohio U | 4-1 | 6-3 | 90.1 |
| Bowling Green | 3-2 | 4-5 | 89.3 |
| Kent St. | 4-2 | 5-5 | 87.4 |
| Akron | 1-4 | 2-7 | 84.0 |
| Miami (O) | 1-5 | 1-9 | 79.2 |
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| West Division |
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| Team | Conf. | Overall | Rating |
| Central Michigan | 5-0 | 7-2 | 106.7 |
| Northern Illinois | 4-1 | 6-3 | 96.9 |
| Western Michigan | 3-3 | 4-6 | 87.5 |
| Toledo | 2-3 | 4-5 | 86.7 |
| Ball State | 1-4 | 1-8 | 81.3 |
| Eastern Michigan | 0-5 | 0-9 | 76.2 |
| Mountain West Conference | |||
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| Team | Conf. | Overall | Rating |
| T C U | 5-0 | 9-0 | 123.8 |
| B Y U | 4-1 | 7-2 | 112.2 |
| Utah | 5-0 | 8-1 | 106.5 |
| Air Force | 4-2 | 6-4 | 100.0 |
| Colo. State | 0-6 | 3-7 | 88.5 |
| UNLV | 2-4 | 4-6 | 88.1 |
| S. D. State | 2-3 | 4-5 | 87.8 |
| Wyoming | 2-3 | 4-5 | 86.7 |
| New Mexico | 0-5 | 0-9 | 74.5 |
| Pac-10 Conference | |||
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| Team | Conf. | Overall | Rating |
| Southern Cal | 4-2 | 7-2 | 120.4 |
| Oregon | 5-1 | 7-2 | 119.7 |
| Stanford | 5-2 | 6-3 | 115.0 |
| California | 3-3 | 6-3 | 112.6 |
| Arizona | 4-1 | 6-2 | 111.9 |
| Oregon St. | 4-2 | 6-3 | 108.1 |
| U C L A | 1-5 | 4-5 | 103.5 |
| Arizona St. | 2-4 | 4-5 | 102.8 |
| Washington | 2-4 | 3-6 | 98.7 |
| Wash. St. | 0-6 | 1-8 | 75.8 |
| Southeastern Conference | |||
| East Division |
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| Team | Conf. | Overall | Rating |
| Florida | 7-0 | 9-0 | 132.9 |
| Tennessee | 2-3 | 5-4 | 113.9 |
| Georgia | 3-3 | 5-4 | 109.2 |
| South Carolina | 3-4 | 6-4 | 106.7 |
| Kentucky | 1-4 | 5-4 | 102.9 |
| Vanderbilt | 0-6 | 2-8 | 93.2 |
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| West Division |
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| Team | Conf. | Overall | Rating |
| Alabama | 6-0 | 9-0 | 129.2 |
| Ole Miss | 2-3 | 6-3 | 114.1 |
| L S U | 4-2 | 7-2 | 113.6 |
| Arkansas | 2-4 | 5-4 | 113.5 |
| Auburn | 3-3 | 7-3 | 105.3 |
| Mississippi State | 2-3 | 4-5 | 101.6 |
| Sunbelt Conference | |||
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| Team | Conf. | Overall | Rating |
| Troy | 6-0 | 7-2 | 99.1 |
| Middle Tennessee | 4-1 | 6-3 | 91.8 |
| Louisiana-Monroe | 4-1 | 5-4 | 90.6 |
| Arkansas State | 1-3 | 2-6 | 89.7 |
| U. of Louisiana | 3-2 | 5-4 | 83.8 |
| Florida Atlantic | 2-2 | 2-6 | 83.3 |
| Florida International | 2-4 | 2-7 | 82.8 |
| North Texas | 1-5 | 2-7 | 76.2 |
| Western Kentucky | 0-5 | 0-9 | 72.0 |
| Western Athletic Conference | |||
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| Team | Conf. | Overall | Rating |
| Boise State | 4-0 | 9-0 | 119.9 |
| Nevada | 5-0 | 6-3 | 103.9 |
| Fresno State | 5-1 | 6-3 | 102.4 |
| Louisiana Tech | 2-4 | 3-6 | 95.7 |
| Utah State | 1-4 | 2-7 | 91.2 |
| Idaho | 4-2 | 7-3 | 90.6 |
| Hawaii | 1-5 | 3-6 | 84.8 |
| San Jose State | 0-4 | 1-7 | 82.8 |
| New Mexico State | 1-3 | 3-6 | 71.8 |
| This Week’s Games–PiRate & Mean Ratings | ||||
| Home Team in CAPS | (N) Denotes Neutral Site |
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| Tuesday, November 10 |
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PiRate Spread |
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| Favorite | Underdog | Score | Mean | |
| BUFFALO | Ohio U | 4.3 | 28-24 | -2 |
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| Wednesday, November 11 |
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PiRate Spread |
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| Favorite | Underdog | Score | Mean | |
| CENTRAL MICHIGAN | Toledo | 23.0 | 40-17 | 19 |
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| Thursday, November 5 |
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PiRate Spread |
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| Favorite | Underdog | Score | Mean | |
| Bowling Green | MIAMI (O) | 7.6 | 31-23 | 7 |
| NORTHERN ILLINOIS | Ball State | 18.8 | 38-19 | 21 |
| South Florida | RUTGERS | 0.1 | 24-24 ot | 0 |
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| Friday, November 6 |
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PiRate Spread |
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| Favorite | Underdog | Score | Mean | |
| Temple | AKRON | 12.5 | 27-14 | 9 |
| CINCINNATI | West Virginia | 14.3 | 35-21 | 14 |
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| Saturday, November 7 |
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PiRate Spread |
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| Favorite | Underdog | Score | Mean | |
| Boston College | VIRGINIA | 13.1 | 27-14 | 8 |
| ILLINOIS | Northwestern | 1.5 | 21-19 | 2 |
| LOUISVILLE | Syracuse | 2.9 | 20-17 | 5 |
| OHIO STATE | Iowa | 7.3 | 21-14 | 7 |
| WISCONSIN | Michigan | 10.8 | 41-30 | 14 |
| PENN STATE | Indiana | 28.9 | 41-12 | 21 |
| Michigan State | PURDUE | 3.9 | 31-27 | 2 |
| Florida State | WAKE FOREST | 0.1 | 20-20 ot | 0 |
| Clemson | NORTH CAROLINA ST. | 7.9 | 31-23 | 12 |
| Georgia Tech | DUKE | 14.4 | 38-24 | 13 |
| Kentucky | VANDERBILT | 7.2 | 20-13 | 8 |
| Texas | BAYLOR | 32.2 | 45-13 | 23 |
| Virginia Tech | MARYLAND | 24.0 | 34-10 | 19 |
| Western Michigan | EASTERN MICHIGAN | 8.8 | 26-17 | 10 |
| OLE MISS | Tennessee | 3.2 | 27-24 | 2 |
| B y u | NEW MEXICO | 35.0 | 42-7 | 28 |
| Nebraska | KANSAS | 9.2 | 21-12 | 5 |
| U a b | MEMPHIS | 3.9 | 31-27 | 4 |
| IOWA STATE | Colorado | 1.8 | 26-24 | 7 |
| U c l a | WASHINGTON ST. | 24.7 | 38-13 | 14 |
| BOISE STATE | Idaho | 32.3 | 45-13 | 25 |
| S M U | U t e p | 2.9 | 35-34 | 11 |
| PITTSBURGH | Notre Dame | 10.8 | 28-17 | 10 |
| SOUTHERN CAL | Stanford | 8.4 | 28-20 | 8 |
| CALIFORNIA | Arizona | 3.7 | 28-24 | 0 |
| OREGON | Arizona State | 20.4 | 34-14 | 20 |
| KANSAS STATE | Missouri | 0.6 | 24-23 | 2 |
| OKLAHOMA | Texas A&M | 31.4 | 38-7 | 14 |
| UTAH STATE | San Jose St. | 11.1 | 35-24 | 8 |
| NEVADA | Fresno State | 4.5 | 35-30 | -1 |
| RICE | Tulane | 3.7 | 35-31 | -1 |
| AIR FORCE | U n l v | 14.9 | 31-16 | 16 |
| OREGON STATE | Washington | 12.4 | 33-21 | 12 |
| Florida | SOUTH CAROLINA | 23.2 | 35-13 | 17 |
| Alabama | MISSISSIPPI STATE | 24.6 | 35-10 | 14 |
| Southern Miss | MARSHALL | 2.0 | 26-24 | -2 |
| Miami-Fl | NORTH CAROLINA | 4.7 | 28-23 | 4 |
| OKLAHOMA STATE | Texas Tech | 7.7 | 40-32 | 4 |
| T C U | Utah | 20.3 | 30-10 | 16 |
| GEORGIA | Auburn | 6.9 | 31-24 | 2 |
| Houston | CENTRAL FLORIDA | 7.9 | 38-30 | 8 |
| L S U | Louisiana Tech | 20.6 | 31-10 | 22 |
| SAN DIEGO STATE | Wyoming | 4.3 | 24-20 | 4 |
| HAWAII | New Mexico State | 17.0 | 45-28 | 13 |
| FLORIDA ATLANTIC | Arkansas St. | 9.8 | 31-21 | 0 |
| UL-MONROE | Western Ky | 21.3 | 38-17 | 24 |
| ARKANSAS | Troy | 17.9 | 45-27 | 12 |
| FLA. INT’L | North Texas | 9.6 | 34-24 | 7 |
| MIDDLE TENNESSEE | UL-Lafayette | 11.0 | 35-24 | 12 |
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| Sunday, November 15 |
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PiRate Spread |
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| Favorite | Underdog | Score | Mean | |
| TULSA | East Carolina | 0.1 | 27-27 ot | 1 |
Bowl Projections
CAPS/Bold = Excepted Bid
Italics = at-large invitation
| Bowl | Conference |
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Conference | Team | Team |
| New Mexico | MWC #4 | vs. | WAC #3 | San Diego St. | Nevada |
| St. Petersburg | Big East #6 | vs. | C-USA #5 | Middle Tennessee | Southern Miss |
| New Orleans | Sunbelt #1 | vs. | C-USA #4 | Troy | East Carolina |
| Las Vegas | MWC #1 | vs. | Pac 10 #4 or 5 | B Y U | Stanford |
| Poinsettia | MWC #2 | vs. | Pac 10 #6 | Utah | U C L A |
| Hawaii | WAC | vs. | C-USA | Fresno St. | Marshall |
| Little Caesar’s Pizza | Big 10 #7 | vs. | MAC #1 or 2 | Minnesota | Northern Illinois |
| Meineke Car Care | ACC #5-6-7 | vs. | Big East #3 | Boston Coll | Rutgers |
| Emerald | Pac 10 #4 or 5 | vs. | ACC #5-6-7 | Oregon State | Wake Forest |
| Music City | SEC #6 or 7 | vs. | ACC #5-6-7 | Georgia | North Carolina |
| Independence | SEC #8 | vs. | Big 12 #7 | South Carolina | Missouri |
| Eagle Bank | ACC #8 | vs. | Army/C-USA | Ohio U | Central Florida |
| Champs Sports | ACC #4 | vs. | Big 10 #5 | Va. Tech | Northwestern |
| Humanitarian | WAC #1 | vs. | MWC | Idaho | Bowling Green |
| Holiday | Big 12 #3 | vs. | Pac 10 #2 | Nebraska | Arizona |
| Armed Forces | C-USA #3 | vs. | MWC #3 | S M U | Air Force |
| Sun | Pac 10 #3 | vs. | B E #2 or B12 #5 | California | Oklahoma |
| Texas | Big 12 #8 | vs. | Navy or C-USA | Texas A&M | NAVY |
| Insight.com | Big 12 #6 | vs. | Big 10 #6 | Kansas State | Michigan State |
| Chick-fil-A | SEC #5 | vs. | ACC #2 | Ole Miss | Miami-Fl |
| Outback | SEC #3 or 4 | vs. | Big 10 #3 | Tennessee | Penn State |
| Capital One | Big 10 #2 | vs. | SEC #2 | Iowa | L S U |
| Gator | B E #2 or B12 #5 | vs. | ACC #3 | Cincinnati | Ga. Tech |
| Rose | BCS Pac10 | vs. | BCS Big 10 | Oregon | Ohio State |
| Sugar | BCS SEC | vs. | BCS At-Large | Alabama | Boise State |
| International | Big East #5 | vs. | MAC #3 | West Va. | Temple |
| Cotton | Big 12 #2 | vs. | SEC #3 or 4 | Oklahoma State | Auburn |
| Papajohns.com | Big East #4 | vs. | SEC #9 | S. Florida | Kentucky |
| Liberty | SEC #6 or 7 | vs. | C-USA #1 | Arkansas | Houston |
| Alamo | Big 10 #4 | vs. | Big 12 #4 | Wisconsin | Texas Tech |
| Fiesta | BCS Big 12 | vs. | BCS At-Large | Southern Cal | T C U |
| Orange | BCS ACC | vs. | BCS At-Large | Clemson | Pittsburgh |
| G M A C | ACC #9 | vs. | MAC | Notre Dame | Central Michigan |
| National Championship | *** BCS #1 *** | vs. | *** BCS #2 *** | Florida | Texas |
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