The Pi-Rate Ratings

November 10, 2009

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For College Football–November 10-15, 2009

Can This Week Be As Wacky As Last Week?

 

It happens every year; it usually happens in November, so it shouldn’t have come as a surprise.  After two thirds of the college season was in the books, teams all of a sudden started acting inconsistently.  Teams that couldn’t catch a break started catching breaks.  Teams that caught all the breaks stopped catching them.

 

Teams that had been given up for dead showed a new life.  Teams that consistently did something that made themselves very predictable (to the wagering public) did something completely different.

 

Iowa’s loss was coming.  You cannot win games every week by pulling them out in the final minutes.  When quarterback Ricky Stanzi went down with an injury, there was going to be no last minute heroics this time.

 

All of a sudden, Ron Zook’s Illinois team looks like they were supposed to look like in August.  Stranger things have happened, but it isn’t impossible that they could finish 6-6 after starting 1-6.  It isn’t probable either, because the Illini still have to play Cincinnati and Fresno State outside the Big 10 as well as Northwestern this week to close out conference play.

 

The two really consistent teams are the two BCS bowl-crashing wannabes.  TCU and Boise State both look invincible at the moment.  Both have tricky games this week.  The Horned Frogs get a one-loss Utah team, while Boise has to worry with in-state rival and bowl eligible Idaho.

 

NCAA Top 25 For November 9, 2009
Rank Team PiRate Won Lost
1 Texas 136.5 9 0
2 Florida  132.9 9 0
3 Alabama 129.2 8 0
4 Oklahoma 127.5 5 4
5 T C U 123.8 9 0
6 Southern Cal 120.4 7 2
7 Boise St. 119.9 9 0
8 Oregon 119.7 7 2
9 Georgia Tech 118.9 9 1
10 Ohio St. 118.4 8 2
11 Va. Tech 118.0 6 3
12 Okla. St. 117.0 7 2
13 Nebraska 116.9 6 3
14 Penn St. 116.8 8 2
15 Miami (Fla.) 116.7 7 2
16 Cincinnati 115.5 9 0
17 Pittsburgh 115.5 8 1
18 Stanford 115.0 6 3
19 Iowa 114.6 9 1
20 Clemson 114.2 6 3
21 Ole Miss 114.1 6 3
22 Tennessee 113.9 5 4
23 L  S  U 113.6 7 2
24 Arkansas 113.5 5 4
25 California 112.6 6 3

 

 

     
Note: Ratings rounded to one decimal point
even though I rank them to two decimal points

 

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division

 

 

 

Team Conf. Overall Rating
Clemson 4-2 6-3 114.2
Boston College 3-2 6-3 110.8
Florida State 2-4 4-5 108.2
Wake Forest 2-4 4-6 105.1
North Carolina State 1-4 4-5 103.3
Maryland 1-4 2-7 91.3

 

 

 

 

Coastal Division

 

 

 

Team Conf. Overall Rating
Georgia Tech 6-1 9-1 118.9
Virginia Tech 3-2 6-3 118.0
Miami-FL 4-2 7-2 116.7
North Carolina 2-3 6-3 109.0
Duke 3-2 5-4 101.8
Virginia 2-3 3-6 94.7

 

Big East Conference
 

 

 

 

Team Conf. Overall Rating
Cincinnati 5-0 9-0 115.5
Pittsburgh 5-0 8-1 115.5
South Florida 2-2 6-2 105.3
West Virginia 3-1 7-2 104.2
Connecticut 1-4 4-5 103.1
Rutgers 1-2 6-2 101.8
Syracuse 0-4 3-6 92.2
Louisville 0-4 3-6 92.1

 

Big Ten

 

 

 

 

Team Conf. Overall Rating
Ohio State 5-1 8-2 118.4
Penn State 4-2 8-2 116.8
Iowa 5-1 9-1 114.6
Wisconsin 4-2 7-2 105.1
Michigan State 3-3 5-5 103.9
Minnesota 3-4 5-5 97.9
Northwestern 3-3 6-4 97.7
Michigan 1-5 5-5 97.3
Purdue 3-3 4-6 97.0
Illinois 2-5 3-6 96.2
Indiana 1-5 4-6 91.4

 

Big 12
North Division

 

 

 

Team Conf. Overall Rating
Nebraska 3-2 6-3 116.9
Kansas 1-4 5-4 104.7
Missouri 1-4 5-4 102.8
Kansas State 4-2 6-4 100.4
Colorado 2-3 3-6 95.7
Iowa State 2-4 5-5 94.5

 

 

 

 

South Division

 

 

 

Team Conf. Overall Rating
Texas 6-0 9-0 136.5
Oklahoma 3-2 5-4 127.5
Oklahoma State 4-1 7-2 117.0
Texas Tech 3-2 6-3 112.3
Baylor 1-4 4-5 101.6
Texas A&M 2-3 5-4 99.1

 

Conference USA
East Division

 

 

 

Team Conf. Overall Rating
Southern Mississippi 3-2 5-4 100.7
East Carolina 4-1 5-4 99.8
Marshall 3-2 5-4 95.7
Central Florida 3-2 5-4 95.3
U A B 3-2 4-5 90.3
Memphis 1-4 2-7 83.7

 

 

 

 

West Division

 

 

 

Team Conf. Overall Rating
Houston 4-1 8-1 106.2
Tulsa 2-3 4-5 96.9
U T E P 2-3 3-6 90.1
S M U 4-1 5-4 90.0
Rice 0-5 0-9 76.7
Tulane 1-4 3-6 75.5

 

Independents

 

 

 

 

Team   Overall Rating
Notre Dame

 

6-3 107.7
Navy

 

7-3 102.6
Army

 

3-6 82.2

 

Mid American Conference
East Division

 

 

 

Team Conf. Overall Rating
Temple 5-0 7-2 99.2
Buffalo 1-4 3-6 91.7
Ohio U 4-1 6-3 90.1
Bowling Green 3-2 4-5 89.3
Kent St. 4-2 5-5 87.4
Akron 1-4 2-7 84.0
Miami (O) 1-5 1-9 79.2

 

 

 

 

West Division

 

 

 

Team Conf. Overall Rating
Central Michigan 5-0 7-2 106.7
Northern Illinois 4-1 6-3 96.9
Western Michigan 3-3 4-6 87.5
Toledo 2-3 4-5 86.7
Ball State 1-4 1-8 81.3
Eastern Michigan 0-5 0-9 76.2

 

Mountain West Conference

 

 

 

 

Team Conf. Overall Rating
T C U 5-0 9-0 123.8
B Y U 4-1 7-2 112.2
Utah 5-0 8-1 106.5
Air Force 4-2 6-4 100.0
Colo. State 0-6 3-7 88.5
UNLV 2-4 4-6 88.1
S. D. State 2-3 4-5 87.8
Wyoming 2-3 4-5 86.7
New Mexico 0-5 0-9 74.5

 

Pac-10 Conference

 

 

 

 

Team Conf. Overall Rating
Southern Cal 4-2 7-2 120.4
Oregon 5-1 7-2 119.7
Stanford 5-2 6-3 115.0
California 3-3 6-3 112.6
Arizona 4-1 6-2 111.9
Oregon St. 4-2 6-3 108.1
U C L A 1-5 4-5 103.5
Arizona St. 2-4 4-5 102.8
Washington 2-4 3-6 98.7
Wash. St. 0-6 1-8 75.8

 

Southeastern Conference
East Division

 

 

 

Team Conf. Overall Rating
Florida 7-0 9-0 132.9
Tennessee 2-3 5-4 113.9
Georgia 3-3 5-4 109.2
South Carolina 3-4 6-4 106.7
Kentucky 1-4 5-4 102.9
Vanderbilt 0-6 2-8 93.2

 

 

 

 

West Division

 

 

 

Team Conf. Overall Rating
Alabama 6-0 9-0 129.2
Ole Miss 2-3 6-3 114.1
L S U 4-2 7-2 113.6
Arkansas 2-4 5-4 113.5
Auburn 3-3 7-3 105.3
Mississippi State 2-3 4-5 101.6

 

Sunbelt Conference

 

 

 

 

Team Conf. Overall Rating
Troy 6-0 7-2 99.1
Middle Tennessee 4-1 6-3 91.8
Louisiana-Monroe 4-1 5-4 90.6
Arkansas State 1-3 2-6 89.7
U. of Louisiana 3-2 5-4 83.8
Florida Atlantic 2-2 2-6 83.3
Florida International 2-4 2-7 82.8
North Texas 1-5 2-7 76.2
Western Kentucky 0-5 0-9 72.0

 

Western Athletic Conference

 

 

 

 

Team Conf. Overall Rating
Boise State 4-0 9-0 119.9
Nevada 5-0 6-3 103.9
Fresno State 5-1 6-3 102.4
Louisiana Tech 2-4 3-6 95.7
Utah State 1-4 2-7 91.2
Idaho 4-2 7-3 90.6
Hawaii 1-5 3-6 84.8
San Jose State 0-4 1-7 82.8
New Mexico State 1-3 3-6 71.8

 

This Week’s Games–PiRate & Mean Ratings
Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Tuesday, November 10

 

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog Score Mean
BUFFALO Ohio U 4.3 28-24 -2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Wednesday, November 11

 

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog Score Mean
CENTRAL MICHIGAN Toledo 23.0 40-17 19

 

 

 

 

 

Thursday, November 5

 

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog Score Mean
Bowling Green MIAMI (O) 7.6 31-23 7
NORTHERN ILLINOIS Ball State 18.8 38-19 21
South Florida RUTGERS 0.1 24-24 ot 0

 

 

 

 

 

Friday, November 6

 

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog Score Mean
Temple AKRON 12.5 27-14 9
CINCINNATI West Virginia 14.3 35-21 14

 

 

 

 

 

Saturday, November 7

 

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog Score Mean
Boston College VIRGINIA 13.1 27-14 8
ILLINOIS Northwestern 1.5 21-19 2
LOUISVILLE Syracuse 2.9 20-17 5
OHIO STATE Iowa 7.3 21-14 7
WISCONSIN Michigan 10.8 41-30 14
PENN STATE Indiana 28.9 41-12 21
Michigan State PURDUE 3.9 31-27 2
Florida State WAKE FOREST 0.1 20-20 ot 0
Clemson NORTH CAROLINA ST. 7.9 31-23 12
Georgia Tech DUKE 14.4 38-24 13
Kentucky VANDERBILT 7.2 20-13 8
Texas BAYLOR 32.2 45-13 23
Virginia Tech MARYLAND 24.0 34-10 19
Western Michigan EASTERN MICHIGAN 8.8 26-17 10
OLE MISS Tennessee 3.2 27-24 2
B y u NEW MEXICO 35.0 42-7 28
Nebraska KANSAS 9.2 21-12 5
U  a  b MEMPHIS 3.9 31-27 4
IOWA STATE Colorado 1.8 26-24 7
U  c  l  a WASHINGTON ST. 24.7 38-13 14
BOISE STATE Idaho 32.3 45-13 25
S M U U t e p 2.9 35-34 11
PITTSBURGH Notre Dame 10.8 28-17 10
SOUTHERN CAL Stanford 8.4 28-20 8
CALIFORNIA Arizona 3.7 28-24 0
OREGON Arizona State 20.4 34-14 20
KANSAS STATE Missouri 0.6 24-23 2
OKLAHOMA Texas A&M 31.4 38-7 14
UTAH STATE San Jose St. 11.1 35-24 8
NEVADA Fresno State 4.5 35-30 -1
RICE Tulane 3.7 35-31 -1
AIR FORCE U n l v 14.9 31-16 16
OREGON STATE Washington 12.4 33-21 12
Florida SOUTH CAROLINA 23.2 35-13 17
Alabama MISSISSIPPI STATE 24.6 35-10 14
Southern Miss MARSHALL 2.0 26-24 -2
Miami-Fl NORTH CAROLINA 4.7 28-23 4
OKLAHOMA STATE Texas Tech 7.7 40-32 4
T C U Utah 20.3 30-10 16
GEORGIA Auburn 6.9 31-24 2
Houston CENTRAL FLORIDA 7.9 38-30 8
L S U Louisiana Tech 20.6 31-10 22
SAN DIEGO STATE Wyoming 4.3 24-20 4
HAWAII New Mexico State 17.0 45-28 13
FLORIDA ATLANTIC Arkansas St. 9.8 31-21 0
UL-MONROE Western Ky 21.3 38-17 24
ARKANSAS Troy 17.9 45-27 12
FLA. INT’L North Texas 9.6 34-24 7
MIDDLE TENNESSEE UL-Lafayette 11.0 35-24 12

 

 

 

 

 

Sunday, November 15

 

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog Score Mean
TULSA East Carolina 0.1 27-27 ot 1

 

Bowl Projections

CAPS/Bold = Excepted Bid

Italics = at-large invitation

 

Bowl Conference

 

Conference Team Team
New Mexico MWC #4 vs. WAC #3 San Diego St. Nevada
St. Petersburg Big East #6 vs. C-USA #5 Middle Tennessee Southern Miss
New Orleans Sunbelt #1 vs. C-USA #4 Troy East Carolina
Las Vegas MWC #1 vs. Pac 10 #4 or 5 B Y U Stanford
Poinsettia MWC #2 vs. Pac 10 #6 Utah U C L A
Hawaii WAC vs. C-USA Fresno St. Marshall
Little Caesar’s Pizza Big 10 #7 vs. MAC #1 or 2 Minnesota Northern Illinois
Meineke Car Care ACC #5-6-7 vs. Big East #3 Boston Coll Rutgers
Emerald Pac 10 #4 or 5 vs. ACC #5-6-7 Oregon State Wake Forest
Music City SEC #6 or 7 vs. ACC #5-6-7 Georgia North Carolina
Independence SEC #8 vs. Big 12 #7 South Carolina Missouri
Eagle Bank ACC #8 vs. Army/C-USA Ohio U Central Florida 
Champs Sports ACC #4 vs. Big 10 #5 Va. Tech Northwestern
Humanitarian WAC #1 vs. MWC Idaho Bowling Green
Holiday Big 12 #3 vs. Pac 10 #2 Nebraska Arizona
Armed Forces C-USA #3 vs. MWC #3 S M U Air Force
Sun Pac 10 #3 vs. B E #2 or B12 #5 California Oklahoma
Texas Big 12 #8 vs. Navy or C-USA Texas A&M NAVY
Insight.com Big 12 #6 vs. Big 10 #6 Kansas State Michigan State
Chick-fil-A SEC #5 vs. ACC #2 Ole Miss Miami-Fl
Outback SEC #3 or 4 vs. Big 10 #3 Tennessee Penn State
Capital One Big 10 #2 vs. SEC #2 Iowa L S U
Gator B E #2 or B12 #5 vs. ACC #3 Cincinnati Ga. Tech
Rose BCS Pac10 vs. BCS Big 10 Oregon Ohio State
Sugar BCS SEC vs. BCS At-Large Alabama Boise State
International Big East #5 vs. MAC #3 West Va. Temple
Cotton Big 12 #2 vs. SEC #3 or 4 Oklahoma State Auburn
Papajohns.com Big East #4 vs. SEC #9 S. Florida Kentucky
Liberty SEC #6 or 7 vs. C-USA #1 Arkansas Houston
Alamo Big 10 #4 vs. Big 12 #4 Wisconsin Texas Tech
Fiesta BCS Big 12 vs. BCS At-Large Southern Cal T C U
Orange BCS ACC vs. BCS At-Large Clemson Pittsburgh
G M A C ACC #9 vs. MAC Notre Dame Central Michigan
National Championship *** BCS #1 *** vs. *** BCS #2 *** Florida Texas

 

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