The Pi-Rate Ratings

October 26, 2009

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For College Football–October 27-31, 2009

A New Number One In The PiRate Ratings

PiRate Picks Go 8-2-1 against the Spread

 

For the first time this season, the Florida Gators don’t occupy the top spot in the PiRate Ratings.  However, unlike some polls and other ratings, it’s not Alabama that has displaced Tebow Incorporated.  Texas surpassed Florida following an impressive blowout win at Missouri.  If the Longhorns can win at Oklahoma State, it looks highly favorable for Coach Mack Brown to direct the Longhorns to their second National Championship Game appearance in five years.

 

We receive e-mails from readers (pirate_ratings@live.com), asking how a team like Oklahoma can be rated so high with three losses.  We must remind you that the PiRate Ratings Top 25 is not a poll like those voted on by journalists or coaches.  These ratings do not rank teams based on what they have done so far this season.  They are meant to estimate the point spread differential between teams before applying home field advantage and about a dozen other variables.

 

Additionally, we must reiterate that you should not use the raw PiRate Ratings when picking games against the spread.  We only use it as a beginning point.  For example, let’s take a look at a sample game from last week—Rutgers at Army.  Rutgers entered the week with a Pirate Rating of 100.8 compared to Army at 82.9.  That’s a spread of 17.9.  Army’s home field advantage for the weeknight nationally televised game was just two points.  So, now we have Rutgers favored by 15.9.  Next, we looked at several variables to see how they affected this particular game.  One major variable was Rutgers’ run defense being superior to the average run defense, while Army relies almost exclusively on the run.  That tilted our in-house spread by three points in Rutgers’ favor, making it now 18.9.  RU had an extra day to prepare, and we moved the in-house spread by 1.5 points, making it 20.4.  The Las Vegas line for the game was Rutgers by 10, and our spread differed by 10.4.  Thus Rutgers -10 became our top college selection for the week.

 

If you want this week’s selections by Thursday afternoon, go to www.piratings.webs.com and click on “Picks vs. Vegas Line.”  We offer a bargain at just $5 per week.  We had dozens of happy customers last week when our picks finished 8-2-1.  For the season, our record against the spread is now 45-29-2 for 60.8%.

 

NCAA Top 25 For October 26, 2009

Rank

Team

PiRate

Won

Lost

1

Texas

135.8

7

0

2

Florida 

133.2

7

0

3

Oklahoma

129.8

4

3

4

Alabama

130.2

7

0

5

Southern Cal

124.1

6

1

6

T C U

121.2

7

0

7

Va. Tech

120.5

5

2

8

Boise St.

116.6

7

0

9

Penn St.

116.6

7

1

10

Oregon

116.5

6

1

11

Georgia Tech

116.4

7

1

12

Iowa

117.3

8

0

13

Ole Miss

116.7

5

2

14

Okla. St.

116.5

6

1

15

Ohio St.

116.4

6

2

16

California

115.7

5

2

17

Pittsburgh

115.3

7

1

18

Nebraska

114.9

4

3

19

Cincinnati

114.5

7

0

20

L  S  U

113.7

6

1

21

Miami (Fla.)

113.6

5

2

22

Arkansas

112.5

3

4

23

Clemson

112.4

4

3

24

Stanford

112.3

5

3

25

Arizona

111.4

5

2

   

 

 

 

Note: Ratings rounded to one decimal point

even though I rank them to two decimal points

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Clemson

3-2

4-3

112.4

Florida State

1-3

3-4

110.4

Boston College

3-2

5-3

109.0

Wake Forest

2-2

4-4

104.9

North Carolina State

0-3

3-4

102.5

Maryland

1-3

2-6

91.4

       
Coastal Division

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Virginia Tech

3-1

5-2

120.5

Georgia Tech

5-1

7-1

118.4

Miami-FL

2-2

5-2

113.6

North Carolina

0-3

4-3

105.7

Duke

2-1

4-3

100.9

Virginia

2-1

3-4

100.0

 

Big East Conference

 

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Pittsburgh

4-0

7-1

115.3

Cincinnati

3-0

7-0

114.5

West Virginia

2-0

6-1

105.1

Connecticut

1-2

4-3

104.4

South Florida

1-2

5-2

104.3

Rutgers

0-2

5-2

101.0

Syracuse

0-2

3-4

92.9

Louisville

0-3

2-5

91.7

 

Big Ten

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Penn State

3-1

7-1

118.6

Iowa

4-0

8-0

117.3

Ohio State

4-1

6-2

116.4

Michigan State

3-2

4-4

103.9

Wisconsin

2-2

5-2

102.0

Michigan

1-3

5-3

101.8

Minnesota

2-3

4-4

98.8

Purdue

2-2

3-5

98.6

Northwestern

2-2

5-3

95.2

Indiana

1-3

4-4

91.8

Illinois

0-5

1-6

91.0

 

Big 12

North Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Nebraska

1-2

4-3

114.9

Kansas

1-2

5-2

107.7

Missouri

0-3

4-3

103.2

Kansas State

3-1

5-3

98.9

Iowa State

2-2

5-3

97.3

Colorado

1-2

2-5

96.7

       
South Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Texas

4-0

7-0

135.8

Oklahoma

2-1

4-3

129.8

Oklahoma State

3-0

6-1

116.5

Texas Tech

2-2

5-3

111.0

Baylor

0-3

3-4

99.4

Texas A&M

1-2

4-3

97.7

 

Conference USA

East Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Southern Mississippi

3-1

5-3

100.8

East Carolina

3-1

4-3

98.6

Marshall

3-1

5-3

95.9

Central Florida

2-2

4-3

95.3

U A B

2-2

2-5

87.6

Memphis

1-3

2-5

85.5

       
West Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Houston

2-1

6-1

105.9

Tulsa

2-1

4-3

100.3

U T E P

2-1

3-4

93.1

S M U

2-1

3-4

87.8

Rice

0-4

0-8

76.4

Tulane

0-4

2-5

74.0

 

Independents

       
Team

 

Overall

Rating

Notre Dame  

5-2

109.2

Navy  

6-2

102.0

Army  

3-5

82.7

 

Mid American Conference

East Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Temple

4-0

5-2

98.5

Buffalo

1-3

3-5

92.4

Ohio U

3-1

5-3

89.9

Bowling Green

2-2

3-5

88.6

Kent St.

3-1

4-4

87.8

Akron

0-3

1-6

83.6

Miami (O)

0-4

0-8

75.5

       
West Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Central Michigan

5-0

7-1

108.2

Northern Illinois

2-1

4-3

93.3

Western Michigan

3-2

4-4

89.5

Toledo

2-2

4-4

88.9

Ball State

1-3

1-7

81.5

Eastern Michigan

0-4

0-7

79.5

 

Mountain West Conference

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

T C U

3-0

7-0

121.2

B Y U

3-1

6-2

109.8

Utah

3-0

6-1

106.8

Air Force

3-2

4-4

98.6

Colo. State

0-4

3-5

90.7

S. D. State

1-2

3-4

90.3

Wyoming

2-1

4-3

88.6

UNLV

1-3

3-5

87.4

New Mexico

0-3

0-7

74.4

 

Pac-10 Conference

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Southern Cal

3-1

6-1

124.1

Oregon

4-0

6-1

118.5

California

2-2

5-2

115.7

Stanford

4-2

5-3

112.3

Arizona

3-1

5-2

111.4

Oregon St.

2-2

4-3

104.8

U C L A

0-4

3-4

104.1

Arizona St.

2-2

4-3

102.9

Washington

2-3

3-5

98.7

Wash. St.

0-5

1-6

76.5

 

Southeastern Conference

East Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Florida

5-0

7-0

133.2

Tennessee

1-3

3-4

111.9

Georgia

3-2

4-3

109.4

South Carolina

3-2

6-2

108.8

Kentucky

1-3

4-3

105.1

Vanderbilt

0-5

2-6

93.5

       
West Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Alabama

5-0

8-0

128.9

Ole Miss

2-2

5-2

116.7

L S U

4-1

6-1

113.7

Arkansas

1-4

3-4

112.5

Auburn

2-3

5-3

102.7

Mississippi State

1-3

3-5

99.4

 

Sunbelt Conference

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Troy

4-0

5-2

98.6

Arkansas State

1-2

2-4

93.0

Middle Tennessee

2-1

4-3

89.4

Louisiana-Monroe

3-0

3-4

88.1

Florida International

1-3

1-6

85.1

Florida Atlantic

2-1

2-4

85.0

Louisiana

2-1

4-3

81.0

North Texas

0-4

1-6

77.7

Western Kentucky

0-3

0-7

72.7

 

Western Athletic Conference

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Boise State

2-0

7-0

118.6

Fresno State

3-1

4-3

102.7

Nevada

3-0

4-3

100.3

Louisiana Tech

2-2

3-4

96.2

Utah State

1-2

2-5

93.4

Idaho

3-1

6-2

90.3

San Jose State

0-2

1-5

87.1

Hawaii

0-4

2-5

82.1

New Mexico State

1-3

3-5

71.8

This Week’s Games–PiRate & Mean Ratings

Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site

 

 

 

   

 

 

 

Tuesday, October 27  

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Score

Mean

East Carolina MEMPHIS

10.4

30-20

7

   

 

 

 

Wednesday, October 28  

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Score

Mean

None  

 

 

 

   

 

 

 

Thursday, October 29  

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Score

Mean

VIRGINIA TECH North Carolina

18.0

28-10

18

   

 

 

 

Friday, October 30  

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Score

Mean

SOUTH FLORIDA West Virginia

2.4

28-26

0

   

 

 

 

Saturday, October 31  

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Score

Mean

CONNECTICUT Rutgers

6.4

27-21

5

Cincinnati SYRACUSE

18.9

31-12

21

BOSTON COLLEGE Central Michigan

4.3

28-24

2

Ohio U BALL STATE

5.9

20-14

10

VIRGINIA Duke

2.1

19-17

5

IOWA Indiana

28.7

35-6

24

WISCONSIN Purdue

6.4

30-24

10

Miami (Fl) WAKE FOREST

6.0

27-21

7

FLORIDA STATE North Carolina St.

11.1

35-24

12

NORTHERN ILLINOIS Akron

12.7

27-14

17

OHIO STATE New Mexico St.

48.6

49-0

36

Georgia Tech VANDERBILT

22.2

31-9

20

TEXAS A&M Iowa State

3.7

31-27

1

Ole Miss AUBURN

10.8

31-20

1

ARKANSAS Eastern Michigan

37.0

47-10

35

KENT STATE Western Michigan

1.0

24-23

1

Nebraska BAYLOR

13.0

23-10

9

TULSA S  m  u

15.5

40-24

9

U  T  E  P U  a  b

8.5

30-21

8

BOISE STATE San Jose State

34.7

45-10

33

Florida      (N) Georgia

23.8

34-10

20

Toledo MIAMI (O)

10.9

35-24

5

OREGON STATE U  c  l  a

3.9

27-23

9

NAVY Temple

6.5

24-17

10

California ARIZONA STATE

9.8

34-24

5

Michigan ILLINOIS

8.1

31-23

10

Missouri COLORADO

3.5

28-24

3

OKLAHOMA Kansas State

34.1

41-7

19

Texas OKLAHOMA STATE

16.1

40-24

9

NEVADA Hawaii

21.7

45-23

15

T  C  U U  n  l  v

37.0

40-3

33

Air Force COLORADO STATE

5.2

21-16

4

Penn State NORTHWESTERN

20.4

30-10

16

Louisiana Tech IDAHO

2.9

31-28

6

FRESNO STATE Utah State

12.5

27-14

18

KENTUCKY Mississippi State

8.7

30-21

8

TEXAS TECH Kansas

6.3

34-28

6

SAN DIEGO STATE New Mexico

18.6

35-16

19

NOTRE DAME Washington State

36.7

51-14

25

TENNESSEE South Carolina

6.3

20-14

5

Southern Cal OREGON

2.4

30-28

-4

HOUSTON Southern Miss

8.1

35-27

11

UTAH Wyoming

21.2

35-14

19

L  S  U Tulane

42.2

49-7

36

Michigan State MINNESOTA

2.1

24-22

1

LOUISVILLE Arkansas State

1.7

26-24

3

FLORIDA INT’L U L-Lafayette

6.6

24-17

2

NORTH TEXAS Western Kentucky

7.5

34-26

12

Middle Tennessee FLORIDA ATLANTIC

1.7

30-28

0

TROY U L-Monroe

13.5

41-27

9

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