A New Number One In The PiRate Ratings
PiRate Picks Go 8-2-1 against the Spread
For the first time this season, the Florida Gators don’t occupy the top spot in the PiRate Ratings. However, unlike some polls and other ratings, it’s not Alabama that has displaced Tebow Incorporated. Texas surpassed Florida following an impressive blowout win at Missouri. If the Longhorns can win at Oklahoma State, it looks highly favorable for Coach Mack Brown to direct the Longhorns to their second National Championship Game appearance in five years.
We receive e-mails from readers (pirate_ratings@live.com), asking how a team like Oklahoma can be rated so high with three losses. We must remind you that the PiRate Ratings Top 25 is not a poll like those voted on by journalists or coaches. These ratings do not rank teams based on what they have done so far this season. They are meant to estimate the point spread differential between teams before applying home field advantage and about a dozen other variables.
Additionally, we must reiterate that you should not use the raw PiRate Ratings when picking games against the spread. We only use it as a beginning point. For example, let’s take a look at a sample game from last week—Rutgers at Army. Rutgers entered the week with a Pirate Rating of 100.8 compared to Army at 82.9. That’s a spread of 17.9. Army’s home field advantage for the weeknight nationally televised game was just two points. So, now we have Rutgers favored by 15.9. Next, we looked at several variables to see how they affected this particular game. One major variable was Rutgers’ run defense being superior to the average run defense, while Army relies almost exclusively on the run. That tilted our in-house spread by three points in Rutgers’ favor, making it now 18.9. RU had an extra day to prepare, and we moved the in-house spread by 1.5 points, making it 20.4. The Las Vegas line for the game was Rutgers by 10, and our spread differed by 10.4. Thus Rutgers -10 became our top college selection for the week.
If you want this week’s selections by Thursday afternoon, go to www.piratings.webs.com and click on “Picks vs. Vegas Line.” We offer a bargain at just $5 per week. We had dozens of happy customers last week when our picks finished 8-2-1. For the season, our record against the spread is now 45-29-2 for 60.8%.
|
NCAA Top 25 For October 26, 2009 |
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|
Rank |
Team |
PiRate |
Won |
Lost |
|
1 |
Texas |
135.8 |
7 |
0 |
|
2 |
Florida |
133.2 |
7 |
0 |
|
3 |
Oklahoma |
129.8 |
4 |
3 |
|
4 |
Alabama |
130.2 |
7 |
0 |
|
5 |
Southern Cal |
124.1 |
6 |
1 |
|
6 |
T C U |
121.2 |
7 |
0 |
|
7 |
Va. Tech |
120.5 |
5 |
2 |
|
8 |
Boise St. |
116.6 |
7 |
0 |
|
9 |
Penn St. |
116.6 |
7 |
1 |
|
10 |
Oregon |
116.5 |
6 |
1 |
|
11 |
Georgia Tech |
116.4 |
7 |
1 |
|
12 |
Iowa |
117.3 |
8 |
0 |
|
13 |
Ole Miss |
116.7 |
5 |
2 |
|
14 |
Okla. St. |
116.5 |
6 |
1 |
|
15 |
Ohio St. |
116.4 |
6 |
2 |
|
16 |
California |
115.7 |
5 |
2 |
|
17 |
Pittsburgh |
115.3 |
7 |
1 |
|
18 |
Nebraska |
114.9 |
4 |
3 |
|
19 |
Cincinnati |
114.5 |
7 |
0 |
|
20 |
L S U |
113.7 |
6 |
1 |
|
21 |
Miami (Fla.) |
113.6 |
5 |
2 |
|
22 |
Arkansas |
112.5 |
3 |
4 |
|
23 |
Clemson |
112.4 |
4 |
3 |
|
24 |
Stanford |
112.3 |
5 |
3 |
|
25 |
Arizona |
111.4 |
5 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
||
|
Note: Ratings rounded to one decimal point |
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|
even though I rank them to two decimal points |
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|
Atlantic Coast Conference |
|||
| Atlantic Division |
|
|
|
| Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
| Clemson |
3-2 |
4-3 |
112.4 |
| Florida State |
1-3 |
3-4 |
110.4 |
| Boston College |
3-2 |
5-3 |
109.0 |
| Wake Forest |
2-2 |
4-4 |
104.9 |
| North Carolina State |
0-3 |
3-4 |
102.5 |
| Maryland |
1-3 |
2-6 |
91.4 |
| Coastal Division |
|
|
|
| Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
| Virginia Tech |
3-1 |
5-2 |
120.5 |
| Georgia Tech |
5-1 |
7-1 |
118.4 |
| Miami-FL |
2-2 |
5-2 |
113.6 |
| North Carolina |
0-3 |
4-3 |
105.7 |
| Duke |
2-1 |
4-3 |
100.9 |
| Virginia |
2-1 |
3-4 |
100.0 |
|
Big East Conference |
|||
|
|
|
|
|
| Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
| Pittsburgh |
4-0 |
7-1 |
115.3 |
| Cincinnati |
3-0 |
7-0 |
114.5 |
| West Virginia |
2-0 |
6-1 |
105.1 |
| Connecticut |
1-2 |
4-3 |
104.4 |
| South Florida |
1-2 |
5-2 |
104.3 |
| Rutgers |
0-2 |
5-2 |
101.0 |
| Syracuse |
0-2 |
3-4 |
92.9 |
| Louisville |
0-3 |
2-5 |
91.7 |
|
Big Ten |
|||
| Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
| Penn State |
3-1 |
7-1 |
118.6 |
| Iowa |
4-0 |
8-0 |
117.3 |
| Ohio State |
4-1 |
6-2 |
116.4 |
| Michigan State |
3-2 |
4-4 |
103.9 |
| Wisconsin |
2-2 |
5-2 |
102.0 |
| Michigan |
1-3 |
5-3 |
101.8 |
| Minnesota |
2-3 |
4-4 |
98.8 |
| Purdue |
2-2 |
3-5 |
98.6 |
| Northwestern |
2-2 |
5-3 |
95.2 |
| Indiana |
1-3 |
4-4 |
91.8 |
| Illinois |
0-5 |
1-6 |
91.0 |
|
Big 12 |
|||
| North Division | |||
| Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
| Nebraska |
1-2 |
4-3 |
114.9 |
| Kansas |
1-2 |
5-2 |
107.7 |
| Missouri |
0-3 |
4-3 |
103.2 |
| Kansas State |
3-1 |
5-3 |
98.9 |
| Iowa State |
2-2 |
5-3 |
97.3 |
| Colorado |
1-2 |
2-5 |
96.7 |
| South Division | |||
| Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
| Texas |
4-0 |
7-0 |
135.8 |
| Oklahoma |
2-1 |
4-3 |
129.8 |
| Oklahoma State |
3-0 |
6-1 |
116.5 |
| Texas Tech |
2-2 |
5-3 |
111.0 |
| Baylor |
0-3 |
3-4 |
99.4 |
| Texas A&M |
1-2 |
4-3 |
97.7 |
|
Conference USA |
|||
| East Division | |||
| Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
| Southern Mississippi |
3-1 |
5-3 |
100.8 |
| East Carolina |
3-1 |
4-3 |
98.6 |
| Marshall |
3-1 |
5-3 |
95.9 |
| Central Florida |
2-2 |
4-3 |
95.3 |
| U A B |
2-2 |
2-5 |
87.6 |
| Memphis |
1-3 |
2-5 |
85.5 |
| West Division | |||
| Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
| Houston |
2-1 |
6-1 |
105.9 |
| Tulsa |
2-1 |
4-3 |
100.3 |
| U T E P |
2-1 |
3-4 |
93.1 |
| S M U |
2-1 |
3-4 |
87.8 |
| Rice |
0-4 |
0-8 |
76.4 |
| Tulane |
0-4 |
2-5 |
74.0 |
|
Independents |
|||
| Team |
|
Overall |
Rating |
| Notre Dame |
5-2 |
109.2 |
|
| Navy |
6-2 |
102.0 |
|
| Army |
3-5 |
82.7 |
|
|
Mid American Conference |
|||
| East Division | |||
| Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
| Temple |
4-0 |
5-2 |
98.5 |
| Buffalo |
1-3 |
3-5 |
92.4 |
| Ohio U |
3-1 |
5-3 |
89.9 |
| Bowling Green |
2-2 |
3-5 |
88.6 |
| Kent St. |
3-1 |
4-4 |
87.8 |
| Akron |
0-3 |
1-6 |
83.6 |
| Miami (O) |
0-4 |
0-8 |
75.5 |
| West Division | |||
| Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
| Central Michigan |
5-0 |
7-1 |
108.2 |
| Northern Illinois |
2-1 |
4-3 |
93.3 |
| Western Michigan |
3-2 |
4-4 |
89.5 |
| Toledo |
2-2 |
4-4 |
88.9 |
| Ball State |
1-3 |
1-7 |
81.5 |
| Eastern Michigan |
0-4 |
0-7 |
79.5 |
|
Mountain West Conference |
|||
| Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
| T C U |
3-0 |
7-0 |
121.2 |
| B Y U |
3-1 |
6-2 |
109.8 |
| Utah |
3-0 |
6-1 |
106.8 |
| Air Force |
3-2 |
4-4 |
98.6 |
| Colo. State |
0-4 |
3-5 |
90.7 |
| S. D. State |
1-2 |
3-4 |
90.3 |
| Wyoming |
2-1 |
4-3 |
88.6 |
| UNLV |
1-3 |
3-5 |
87.4 |
| New Mexico |
0-3 |
0-7 |
74.4 |
|
Pac-10 Conference |
|||
| Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
| Southern Cal |
3-1 |
6-1 |
124.1 |
| Oregon |
4-0 |
6-1 |
118.5 |
| California |
2-2 |
5-2 |
115.7 |
| Stanford |
4-2 |
5-3 |
112.3 |
| Arizona |
3-1 |
5-2 |
111.4 |
| Oregon St. |
2-2 |
4-3 |
104.8 |
| U C L A |
0-4 |
3-4 |
104.1 |
| Arizona St. |
2-2 |
4-3 |
102.9 |
| Washington |
2-3 |
3-5 |
98.7 |
| Wash. St. |
0-5 |
1-6 |
76.5 |
|
Southeastern Conference |
|||
| East Division | |||
| Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
| Florida |
5-0 |
7-0 |
133.2 |
| Tennessee |
1-3 |
3-4 |
111.9 |
| Georgia |
3-2 |
4-3 |
109.4 |
| South Carolina |
3-2 |
6-2 |
108.8 |
| Kentucky |
1-3 |
4-3 |
105.1 |
| Vanderbilt |
0-5 |
2-6 |
93.5 |
| West Division | |||
| Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
| Alabama |
5-0 |
8-0 |
128.9 |
| Ole Miss |
2-2 |
5-2 |
116.7 |
| L S U |
4-1 |
6-1 |
113.7 |
| Arkansas |
1-4 |
3-4 |
112.5 |
| Auburn |
2-3 |
5-3 |
102.7 |
| Mississippi State |
1-3 |
3-5 |
99.4 |
|
Sunbelt Conference |
|||
| Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
| Troy |
4-0 |
5-2 |
98.6 |
| Arkansas State |
1-2 |
2-4 |
93.0 |
| Middle Tennessee |
2-1 |
4-3 |
89.4 |
| Louisiana-Monroe |
3-0 |
3-4 |
88.1 |
| Florida International |
1-3 |
1-6 |
85.1 |
| Florida Atlantic |
2-1 |
2-4 |
85.0 |
| Louisiana |
2-1 |
4-3 |
81.0 |
| North Texas |
0-4 |
1-6 |
77.7 |
| Western Kentucky |
0-3 |
0-7 |
72.7 |
|
Western Athletic Conference |
|||
| Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
| Boise State |
2-0 |
7-0 |
118.6 |
| Fresno State |
3-1 |
4-3 |
102.7 |
| Nevada |
3-0 |
4-3 |
100.3 |
| Louisiana Tech |
2-2 |
3-4 |
96.2 |
| Utah State |
1-2 |
2-5 |
93.4 |
| Idaho |
3-1 |
6-2 |
90.3 |
| San Jose State |
0-2 |
1-5 |
87.1 |
| Hawaii |
0-4 |
2-5 |
82.1 |
| New Mexico State |
1-3 |
3-5 |
71.8 |
|
This Week’s Games–PiRate & Mean Ratings |
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| Home Team in CAPS | (N) Denotes Neutral Site |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
| Tuesday, October 27 |
PiRate Spread |
|
|
|
| Favorite | Underdog |
Score |
Mean |
|
| East Carolina | MEMPHIS |
10.4 |
30-20 |
7 |
|
|
|
|
||
| Wednesday, October 28 |
PiRate Spread |
|
|
|
| Favorite | Underdog |
Score |
Mean |
|
| None |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
| Thursday, October 29 |
PiRate Spread |
|
|
|
| Favorite | Underdog |
Score |
Mean |
|
| VIRGINIA TECH | North Carolina |
18.0 |
28-10 |
18 |
|
|
|
|
||
| Friday, October 30 |
PiRate Spread |
|
|
|
| Favorite | Underdog |
Score |
Mean |
|
| SOUTH FLORIDA | West Virginia |
2.4 |
28-26 |
0 |
|
|
|
|
||
| Saturday, October 31 |
PiRate Spread |
|
|
|
| Favorite | Underdog |
Score |
Mean |
|
| CONNECTICUT | Rutgers |
6.4 |
27-21 |
5 |
| Cincinnati | SYRACUSE |
18.9 |
31-12 |
21 |
| BOSTON COLLEGE | Central Michigan |
4.3 |
28-24 |
2 |
| Ohio U | BALL STATE |
5.9 |
20-14 |
10 |
| VIRGINIA | Duke |
2.1 |
19-17 |
5 |
| IOWA | Indiana |
28.7 |
35-6 |
24 |
| WISCONSIN | Purdue |
6.4 |
30-24 |
10 |
| Miami (Fl) | WAKE FOREST |
6.0 |
27-21 |
7 |
| FLORIDA STATE | North Carolina St. |
11.1 |
35-24 |
12 |
| NORTHERN ILLINOIS | Akron |
12.7 |
27-14 |
17 |
| OHIO STATE | New Mexico St. |
48.6 |
49-0 |
36 |
| Georgia Tech | VANDERBILT |
22.2 |
31-9 |
20 |
| TEXAS A&M | Iowa State |
3.7 |
31-27 |
1 |
| Ole Miss | AUBURN |
10.8 |
31-20 |
1 |
| ARKANSAS | Eastern Michigan |
37.0 |
47-10 |
35 |
| KENT STATE | Western Michigan |
1.0 |
24-23 |
1 |
| Nebraska | BAYLOR |
13.0 |
23-10 |
9 |
| TULSA | S m u |
15.5 |
40-24 |
9 |
| U T E P | U a b |
8.5 |
30-21 |
8 |
| BOISE STATE | San Jose State |
34.7 |
45-10 |
33 |
| Florida (N) | Georgia |
23.8 |
34-10 |
20 |
| Toledo | MIAMI (O) |
10.9 |
35-24 |
5 |
| OREGON STATE | U c l a |
3.9 |
27-23 |
9 |
| NAVY | Temple |
6.5 |
24-17 |
10 |
| California | ARIZONA STATE |
9.8 |
34-24 |
5 |
| Michigan | ILLINOIS |
8.1 |
31-23 |
10 |
| Missouri | COLORADO |
3.5 |
28-24 |
3 |
| OKLAHOMA | Kansas State |
34.1 |
41-7 |
19 |
| Texas | OKLAHOMA STATE |
16.1 |
40-24 |
9 |
| NEVADA | Hawaii |
21.7 |
45-23 |
15 |
| T C U | U n l v |
37.0 |
40-3 |
33 |
| Air Force | COLORADO STATE |
5.2 |
21-16 |
4 |
| Penn State | NORTHWESTERN |
20.4 |
30-10 |
16 |
| Louisiana Tech | IDAHO |
2.9 |
31-28 |
6 |
| FRESNO STATE | Utah State |
12.5 |
27-14 |
18 |
| KENTUCKY | Mississippi State |
8.7 |
30-21 |
8 |
| TEXAS TECH | Kansas |
6.3 |
34-28 |
6 |
| SAN DIEGO STATE | New Mexico |
18.6 |
35-16 |
19 |
| NOTRE DAME | Washington State |
36.7 |
51-14 |
25 |
| TENNESSEE | South Carolina |
6.3 |
20-14 |
5 |
| Southern Cal | OREGON |
2.4 |
30-28 |
-4 |
| HOUSTON | Southern Miss |
8.1 |
35-27 |
11 |
| UTAH | Wyoming |
21.2 |
35-14 |
19 |
| L S U | Tulane |
42.2 |
49-7 |
36 |
| Michigan State | MINNESOTA |
2.1 |
24-22 |
1 |
| LOUISVILLE | Arkansas State |
1.7 |
26-24 |
3 |
| FLORIDA INT’L | U L-Lafayette |
6.6 |
24-17 |
2 |
| NORTH TEXAS | Western Kentucky |
7.5 |
34-26 |
12 |
| Middle Tennessee | FLORIDA ATLANTIC |
1.7 |
30-28 |
0 |
| TROY | U L-Monroe |
13.5 |
41-27 |
9 |
The Pi-Rate Ratings 