The Pi-Rate Ratings

October 19, 2009

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For College Football–October 21-24, 2009

Time To Start Bowl Projecting

 

With the initial BCS ranking coming out this week, it’s time for the PiRates to start projecting the bowls.  Of course, the only one that really matters is the National Championship Game.  It looks rather easy as of right now.  Most of our competitors are picking Texas to play the winner of the Florida-Alabama SEC Championship Game.  We don’t concur for one reason—we think Texas will lose one of its remaining Big 12 games.  The Longhorns have squeaked by Texas Tech and Oklahoma.  We think either Missouri, Oklahoma State, or even Nebraska in the Big 12 Championship Game could knock the Longhorns off their perch.

 

That presents a major problem for the BCS.  Boise State is sitting at number four, and the Broncos have only Idaho and Nevada left on their schedule to worry about.  BSU should run the table and could move up to number two in the Harris and USA Today polls by the end of the season.  Could a Florida or Alabama game against Boise State be possible?  We think the numbers will be fudged just enough to allow a possible rematch of the SEC championship Game for the National Championship Game.

 

Another strong possibility could leave an undefeated team in the Top 10 out of the BCS Bowl picture.  TCU could easily run the table and finish 12-0 and around number six in the final regular season poll.  The at-large rules wouldn’t guarantee the Horned Frogs an automatic at-large bid if Boise State finished undefeated and ahead of them in the BCS standings.  It would come down to one of the big bowls, like the Sugar Bowl to choose between them and a possible 10-2 Southern Cal or 11-1 Cincinnati team.

 

As of today, we are projecting Pittsburgh to edge Cincinnati for the Big East title and Oregon to beat USC in the Pac-10.  That could change, but if both the Bearcats and Trojans lose those games, they could still be selected as at-large teams over an undefeated TCU team. 

 

The PiRate Ratings have seen the top teams coming back to the pack.  Florida and Texas no longer have the big gap between them and the rest of the Top 10.  Both the Gators and Longhorns were very fortunate to come out of Saturday undefeated.

 

NCAA Top 25 For October 12, 2009

Rank

Team

PiRate

Won

Lost

1

Florida 

137.4

6

0

2

Texas

133.1

6

0

3

Alabama

130.2

7

0

4

Oklahoma

129.0

3

3

5

Southern Cal

124.4

5

1

6

Va. Tech

120.5

5

2

7

T C U

117.9

6

0

8

Iowa

117.2

7

0

9

Nebraska

116.4

4

2

10

Boise St.

116.3

6

0

11

Ole Miss

116.3

4

2

12

Penn St.

116.1

6

1

13

Georgia Tech

116.1

6

1

14

Texas Tech

115.5

5

2

15

California

115.2

4

2

16

Oregon

115.1

5

1

17

Miami (Fla.)

115.0

5

1

18

Ohio St.

114.8

5

2

19

Okla. St.

114.3

5

1

20

Cincinnati

113.3

6

0

21

B  Y  U

113.1

6

1

22

Arkansas

112.9

3

3

23

Pittsburgh

112.4

6

1

24

L  S  U

112.4

5

1

25

Stanford

111.2

4

3

   

 

 

 

Note: Ratings rounded to one decimal point

even though I rank them to two decimal points

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Clemson

2-2

3-3

111.0

Florida State

0-3

2-4

110.0

Boston College

3-2

5-2

109.2

Wake Forest

2-2

4-3

105.5

North Carolina State

0-3

3-4

102.5

Maryland

1-2

2-5

91.5

       
Coastal Division

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Virginia Tech

3-1

5-2

120.5

Georgia Tech

4-1

6-1

116.1

Miami-FL

2-1

5-1

115.0

North Carolina

0-3

4-2

106.1

Virginia

2-0

3-3

102.3

Duke

1-1

3-3

100.8

 

Big East Conference

 

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Cincinnati

2-0

6-0

113.3

Pittsburgh

3-0

6-1

112.4

South Florida

1-1

5-1

107.2

Connecticut

1-1

4-2

105.0

West Virginia

1-0

5-1

104.5

Rutgers

0-2

4-2

100.8

Louisville

0-2

2-4

92.9

Syracuse

0-2

2-4

92.6

 

Big Ten

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Iowa

3-0

7-0

117.2

Penn State

2-1

6-1

116.1

Ohio State

3-1

5-2

114.8

Michigan

1-2

5-2

104.3

Michigan State

3-1

4-3

104.0

Wisconsin

2-2

5-2

102.0

Minnesota

2-2

4-3

100.4

Purdue

1-2

2-5

98.4

Northwestern

1-2

4-3

94.9

Indiana

1-2

4-3

92.1

Illinois

0-4

1-5

91.2

 

Big 12

North Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Nebraska

1-1

4-2

116.4

Kansas

1-1

5-1

108.5

Missouri

0-2

4-2

105.9

Colorado

1-1

2-4

98.0

Kansas State

2-1

4-3

97.6

Iowa State

1-2

4-3

95.8

       
South Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Texas

3-0

6-0

133.1

Oklahoma

1-1

3-3

129.0

Texas Tech

2-1

5-2

115.5

Oklahoma State

2-0

5-1

114.3

Baylor

0-2

3-3

101.6

Texas A&M

0-2

3-3

93.2

 

Conference USA

East Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Southern Mississippi

2-1

4-3

100.0

East Carolina

3-1

4-3

98.6

Marshall

2-1

4-3

94.7

Central Florida

1-2

3-3

93.3

U A B

2-1

2-4

88.8

Memphis

1-3

2-5

85.5

       
West Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Houston

1-1

5-1

105.6

Tulsa

2-0

4-2

101.5

U T E P

1-1

2-4

90.9

S M U

2-0

3-3

88.1

Rice

0-3

0-7

78.4

Tulane

0-3

2-4

74.8

 

Independents

       
Team

 

Overall

Rating

Notre Dame  

4-2

109.0

Navy  

5-2

101.4

Army  

3-4

82.9

 

Mid American Conference

East Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Temple

3-0

4-2

97.2

Buffalo

1-2

3-4

92.7

Ohio U

3-0

5-2

92.6

Bowling Green

2-1

3-4

88.7

Kent St.

2-1

3-4

85.1

Akron

0-3

1-5

83.9

Miami (O)

0-3

0-7

75.7

       
West Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Central Michigan

4-0

6-1

108.1

Northern Illinois

1-1

3-3

93.1

Toledo

2-1

4-3

90.2

Western Michigan

2-2

3-4

89.2

Ball State

0-3

0-7

80.7

Eastern Michigan

0-3

0-6

80.3

 

Mountain West Conference

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

T C U

2-0

6-0

117.9

B Y U

3-0

6-1

113.1

Utah

2-0

5-1

106.5

Air Force

3-1

4-3

98.9

Colo. State

0-3

3-4

92.8

Wyoming

2-1

4-3

88.6

S. D. State

0-2

2-4

88.2

UNLV

0-3

2-5

85.4

New Mexico

0-2

0-6

76.4

 

Pac-10 Conference

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Southern Cal

2-1

5-1

124.4

California

1-2

4-2

115.2

Oregon

3-0

5-1

115.1

Stanford

3-2

4-3

111.2

Arizona

2-1

4-2

110.7

U C L A

0-3

3-3

104.8

Oregon St.

2-1

4-2

104.5

Arizona St.

2-1

4-2

104.0

Washington

2-2

3-4

102.1

Wash. St.

0-4

1-5

77.0

 

Southeastern Conference

East Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Florida

4-0

6-0

134.9

Tennessee

1-2

3-3

110.6

Georgia

3-2

4-3

109.4

South Carolina

2-2

5-2

108.7

Kentucky

1-3

3-3

104.7

Vanderbilt

0-4

2-5

93.6

       
West Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Alabama

4-0

7-0

130.2

Ole Miss

1-2

4-2

116.3

Arkansas

1-3

3-3

112.9

L S U

3-1

5-1

112.4

Auburn

2-2

5-2

104.0

Mississippi State

1-2

3-4

97.7

 

Sunbelt Conference

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Troy

3-0

4-2

98.4

Arkansas State

0-2

1-4

91.5

Louisiana-Monroe

3-0

3-3

88.5

Middle Tennessee

1-1

3-3

87.9

Florida International

1-2

1-5

86.6

Louisiana

2-0

4-2

83.4

Florida Atlantic

1-1

1-4

82.6

North Texas

0-3

1-5

77.9

Western Kentucky

0-2

0-6

74.2

 

Western Athletic Conference

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Boise State

1-0

6-0

116.3

Fresno State

2-1

3-3

101.8

Nevada

2-0

3-3

99.0

Louisiana Tech

2-1

3-3

96.4

Utah State

0-2

1-5

93.2

Idaho

3-0

6-1

91.6

San Jose State

0-2

1-5

87.1

Hawaii

0-3

2-4

84.4

New Mexico State

1-2

3-4

72.7

 

This Week’s Games–PiRate & Mean Ratings

Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site

 

 

 

   

 

 

 

Tuesday, October 20  

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Score

Mean

None  

 

 

 

   

 

 

 

Wednesday, October 21  

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Score

Mean

Tulsa U T E P

8.1

35-27

10

   

 

 

 

Thursday, October 22  

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Score

Mean

Florida State NORTH CAROLINA

0.7

21-20

1

   

 

 

 

Friday, October 23  

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Score

Mean

Rutgers ARMY

15.9

30-14

11

   

 

 

 

Saturday, October 24  

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Score

Mean

MARSHALL U  a  b

9.2

30-21

10

SYRACUSE Akron

12.2

33-21

10

DUKE Maryland

12.3

34-21

10

Georgia Tech VIRGINIA

10.8

31-20

6

MIAMI (FL) Clemson

7.0

24-17

8

PURDUE Illinois

10.2

34-24

12

Central Michigan BOWLING GREEN

16.9

34-17

7

NORTHWESTERN Indiana

5.8

27-21

3

OHIO STATE Minnesota

17.9

28-10

14

PITTSBURGH South Florida

8.5

28-19

6

WEST VIRGINIA Connecticut

2.7

20-17

6

SOUTH CAROLINA Vanderbilt

18.6

26-7

21

NEBRASKA Iowa State

24.6

28-3

16

EASTERN MICHIGAN Ball State

2.1

22-20

-1

Northern Illinois MIAMI (O)

15.1

28-13

15

Oklahoma State BAYLOR

9.7

34-24

7

OHIO U Kent State

10.2

30-20

13

Buffalo WESTERN MICHIGAN

1.0

24-23

-5

Louisiana Tech UTAH STATE

0.0

27-27 ot

3

NOTRE DAME Boston College

3.3

34-31

6

ALABAMA Tennessee

22.9

33-10

19

Oregon WASHINGTON

9.8

34-24

11

TEXAS TECH Texas A&M

25.3

42-17

21

Penn State MICHIGAN

8.3

21-13

3

Oklahoma KANSAS

17.5

35-17

5

Texas MISSOURI

24.2

34-10

14

Wake Forest NAVY

1.4

28-27

-6

COLORADO STATE San Diego State

7.6

34-26

11

UTAH Air Force

10.6

24-13

12

NEVADA Idaho

10.4

38-28

0

ARIZONA U  c  l  a

8.9

30-21

11

CALIFORNIA Washington State

41.2

48-7

27

Temple TOLEDO

4.3

24-20

-1

OLE MISS Arkansas

6.4

27-21

3

CINCINNATI Louisville

23.1

33-10

26

SOUTHERN MISS Tulane

27.9

38-10

18

Central Florida RICE

12.2

24-12

11

KANSAS STATE Colorado

2.6

31-28

3

Iowa MICHIGAN STATE

10.0

24-14

8

T  c  u B  Y  U

1.6

26-24

4

Florida MISSISSIPPI STATE

34.2

37-3

24

HOUSTON S  m  u

20.5

52-31

16

Fresno State NEW MEXICO STATE

26.4

33-7

21

L  S  U Auburn

11.7

28-16

10

U  n  l  v NEW MEXICO

6.5

24-17

6

SOUTHERN CAL Oregon State

23.4

40-17

13

STANFORD Arizona State

10.2

31-21

4

Boise State HAWAII

28.4

42-14

26

UL-LAFAYETTE Florida Atlantic

3.5

31-27

6

ARKANSAS STATE Florida International

7.6

35-27

9

TROY North Texas

23.5

34-10

20

KENTUCKY Louisiana-Monroe

19.4

40-21

12

MIDDLE TENNESSEE Western Kentucky

16.4

28-12

18

 

Bowl Projections

 

Bowl

Conference

Team

Conference

Team

New Mexico

MWC #4

Colorado St.

WAC #3

Fresno St.

St. Petersburg

Big East #6

Rutgers

C-USA #5

Marshall

New Orleans

Sunbelt #1

Troy

C-USA #4

East Carolina

Las Vegas

MWC #1

T C U

Pac 10 #4 or 5

Arizona St.

Poinsettia

MWC #2

Air Force

Pac 10 #6

U C L A

Hawaii

WAC

Nevada

C-USA

S M U

Little Caesar’s Pizza

Big 10 #7

Minnesota

MAC #1 or 2

Ohio U

Meineke Car Care

ACC #5-6-7

Wake Forest

Big East #3

West Va.

Emerald

Pac 10 #4 or 5

Oregon St.

ACC #5-6-7

Virginia

Music City

SEC #6 or 7

Auburn

ACC #5-6-7

North Carolina

Independence

SEC #8

Arkansas

Big 12 #7

Kansas

Eagle Bank

ACC #8

Boston College

Army/At-large

[Northwestern]

Champs Sports

ACC #4

Clemson

Big 10 #5

Wisconsin

Humanitarian

WAC #1

Idaho

MWC

Utah

Holiday

Big 12 #3

Nebraska

Pac 10 #2

California

Armed Forces

C-USA #3

Tulsa

MWC #3

B Y U

Sun

Pac 10 #3

Arizona

Big 12 #5 or Big East #2

Oklahoma

Texas

Big 12 #8

Kansas St.

Navy or C-USA

Navy

Insight.com

Big 12 #6

Missouri

Big 10 #6

Michigan St.

Chick-fil-A

SEC #5

Georgia

ACC #2

Va. Tech

Outback

SEC #3 or 4

Ole Miss

Big 10 #3

Ohio St.

Capital One

Big 10 #2

Penn St.

SEC #2

L S U

Gator

Big East #2 or Big 12 #5

Notre Dame

ACC #3

Ga. Tech

Rose

BCS Pac10

Oregon

BCS Big 10

Iowa

Sugar

BCS SEC

Southern Cal

BCS At-Large

Cincinnati

International

Big East #5

Connecticut

MAC #3

Temple

Cotton

Big 12 #2

Oklahoma St.

SEC #3 or 4

South Carolina

Papajohns.com

Big East #4

S. Florida

SEC #9

Kentucky

Liberty

SEC #6 or 7

Tennessee

C-USA #1

Houston

Alamo

Big 10 #4

Michigan

Big 12 #4

Texas Tech

Fiesta

BCS Big 12

Texas

BCS At-Large

Boise St.

Orange

BCS ACC

Miami (Fl)

BCS At-Large

Pittsburgh

G M A C

ACC #9

[Southern Miss]

MAC

Central Mich.

National Championship

*** BCS #1 ***

Alabama

*** BCS #2 ***

Florida

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