The Pi-Rate Ratings

October 13, 2009

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For NFL Week Six: October 18-19, 2009

NFL Week 6—Three Games Worth Watching

 

As we start the middle third of the NFL season, three week six games are worth noting.  The New Orleans Saints host the New York Giants in a battle of unbeaten teams.  With recent parity in the league, there haven’t been many recent matchups of unbeaten teams in week six.  In 2007, New England, on its way to a 16-0 regular season record, disposed of undefeated Dallas in week six.  Then, a few weeks later, the Patriots met an undefeated Indianapolis team and won.  

 

The Baltimore Ravens are facing a 3-3 record after beginning 3-0 if they cannot handle Brett Favre, Adrian Peterson, and company at the Metrodome.  If the Vikings win, it will be their first 6-0 record since 1998, when they finished 15-1.

 

The Chicago Bears, coming off a bye week play at Atlanta.  The Falcons are fresh off a slaughter of the San Francisco 49ers.  The winner of this battle of 3-1 teams will have a leg up in the standings for a possible wildcard spot if neither can overtake their undefeated intra-divisional rivals.

 

There are potentially five really crappy ballgames this week.  Any and all five could see the favorite winning by three to five touchdowns.  Pittsburgh hosts a Cleveland team that can do little more than pass the ball to the line of scrimmage.  Jacksonville hosts St. Louis; if the Rams lose big in this one, they may be worse than last year’s Lions.  Oakland hosts Philadelphia.  The Raiders lost by 37 to the Giants last week and enjoy virtually no home field advantage any more.  If the Eagles come ready for slaughter, they could hang half a hundred on the Raiders this week.  The hapless Bills must face an angry Jets team at The Meadowlands.  If Buffalo couldn’t beat Cleveland when Derek Anderson completed just two of 17 passes, how will they stop the Jets’ potent and balanced offense?  New England is looking to take out their frustrations on somebody after letting one slip away in the cold Rocky Mountain air at Denver.  Lucky for the Patriots, they get an 0-5 Tennessee team that has no pass defense and appears to be ready to mail it in the rest of the season.

 

Current NFL PiRate Ratings

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

Bitmap

NFC East

 

PiRate

Mean

Biased

W-L-T

Pts

Opp

NY Giants

109.4

107.6

108.7

5-0-0

151

71

Philadelphia 

105.8

105.8

107.0

3-1-0

127

86

Dallas

99.7

102.5

100.9

3-2-0

122

98

Washington

94.4

95.4

94.2

2-3-0

73

82

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

W-L-T

Pts

Opp

Minnesota

105.8

105.4

106.9

5-0-0

156

90

Chicago

103.5

103.7

104.3

3-1-0

105

78

Green Bay

99.9

100.5

101.2

2-2-0

104

93

Detroit

94.6

93.0

95.0

1-4-0

103

162

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

W-L-T

Pts

Opp

New Orleans

112.0

110.5

110.4

4-0-0

144

66

Atlanta

106.1

104.1

104.9

3-1-0

102

63

Carolina  

98.3

96.3

95.2

1-3-0

57

104

Tampa Bay

89.0

92.4

89.6

0-5-0

68

140

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

W-L-T

Pts

Opp

San Francisco

100.5

99.9

101.1

3-2-0

112

98

Seattle

99.2

100.7

99.8

2-3-0

115

82

Arizona

98.2

100.5

100.2

2-2-0

85

89

St. Louis

86.8

86.6

85.6

0-5-0

34

146

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

W-L-T

Pts

Opp

New England

107.7

104.9

105.4

3-2-0

104

91

NY Jets

101.6

102.8

103.7

3-2-0

101

88

Miami

98.8

100.9

100.4

2-3-0

112

106

Buffalo

94.0

94.6

93.4

1-4-0

77

116

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

W-L-T

Pts

Opp

Baltimore

109.9

104.5

105.8

3-2-0

138

97

Pittsburgh

106.4

103.9

103.7

3-2-0

113

98

Cincinnati

102.1

101.5

104.8

4-1-0

101

90

Cleveland

91.2

93.2

92.5

1-4-0

55

121

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

W-L-T

Pts

Opp

Indianapolis

110.0

108.6

109.6

5-0-0

137

71

Houston

100.0

97.2

98.1

2-3-0

115

120

Tennessee

97.0

96.5

93.8

0-5-0

84

139

Jacksonville

94.7

98.2

97.9

2-3-0

97

127

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

W-L-T

Pts

Opp

San Diego

103.6

101.5

102.7

2-2-0

101

102

Denver

100.7

104.0

105.6

5-0-0

99

43

Kansas City

90.0

93.1

90.5

0-5-0

84

138

Oakland

88.7

89.7

87.1

1-4-0

49

130

 

This Week’s Games

Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site          
   

 

 

 

 

 

HFA for Week 6 = 2.7    

 

 

 

 

Vegas Line as of 1:30PM Tuesday  

 

 

 

 

 

Sunday, October 18, 2009  

 

 

 

 

 

Favorite Underdog

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Vegas

Totals

WASHINGTON Kansas City

7.1

5.0

6.4

6 1/2

37   

CINCINNATI Houston

4.8

7.0

9.4

5 1/2

45 1/2

PITTSBURGH Cleveland

17.9

13.4

13.9

14   

38   

Baltimore MINNESOTA

1.4

-3.6

-3.8

2 1/2

43 1/2

JACKSONVILLE St. Louis

10.6

14.3

15.0

9 1/2

42   

NEW ORLEANS New York Giants

5.3

5.6

4.4

3   

48   

Carolina TAMPA BAY

6.6

1.2

2.9

3 1/2

40   

GREEN BAY Detroit

8.0

10.2

8.9

13 1/2

48 1/2

Philadelphia OAKLAND

14.4

13.4

17.2

14   

40 1/2

SEATTLE Arizona

3.7

2.9

2.3

2 1/2

47   

NEW YORK JETS Buffalo

10.3

10.9

13.0

10   

38   

NEW ENGLAND Tennessee

13.4

11.1

14.3

9   

43 1/2

ATLANTA Chicago

5.3

3.1

3.3

3   

46   

   

 

 

 

 

 

   

 

 

 

 

 

   

 

 

 

 

 

Monday, October 19, 2009  

 

 

 

 

 

Favorite Underdog

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Vegas

Totals

SAN DIEGO Denver

5.6

0.2

-0.2

4   

44   

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