The Pi-Rate Ratings

September 29, 2009

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For NFL Week Four: October 4-5, 2009

NFL Playoff Picture Coming More Into Focus After Just Three Weeks

 

The PiRate Picks finished 6-1 Last Week—Go to www.piratings.webs.com to sign up for this week’s picks (deadline: 7PM Eastern Time Wednesdays)

 

Usually after three weeks, there are about three 3-0 teams and three 0-3 teams left in the NFL.  There are still seven undefeated teams and seven winless teams.  It looks like some of the playoff races are already on their way to being decided.

 

In the NFC, Tampa Bay and Carolina have already played themselves out of playoff contention.  St. Louis, Washington, and Detroit never had a chance, and Arizona and Seattle don’t appear to have it this year.  Six of the remaining nine teams will play in the postseason.  Count the Giants, Eagles, Saints, 49ers, and Vikings as clear-cut favorites for five of those spots.  The race for the final spot is between Atlanta, Chicago, Green Bay, and Dallas.

 

In the AFC, count out Kansas City, Oakland, Tennessee, Jacksonville, Houston, Cleveland, Miami, and Buffalo.  Indianapolis just about has the South title secured.  It’s doubtful that any other AFC South team will qualify as a wildcard.  The Patriots and Jets should both qualify from the East, and Baltimore should qualify out of the North.  Pittsburgh has lost both games since the injury of Troy Polamalu, and both losses came from a breakdown in the secondary.  The Steelers could finish at 9-7 and be on the outside looking in.  Cincinnati is one freak play away from being 3-0, and the Bengals could take advantage of a softer schedule to sneak through with a 9-7 record.  9-7 may not qualify, because in the West Division, Denver and San Diego should both go 4-0 against their two weak sisters and both win double digit games.

 

Here’s a look at this week’s PiRate, Mean, and Biased Ratings, as well as the schedule of games with the spreads.

 

Current NFL PiRate Ratings

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

Bitmap

NFC East

 

PiRate

Mean

Biased

W-L-T

Pts

Opp

NY Giants

107.8

106.5

106.2

3-0-0

80

48

Philadelphia

105.8

105.7

105.1

2-1-0

94

72

Dallas

100.6

103.4

101.8

2-1-0

86

61

Washington

94.7

96.5

94.7

1-2-0

40

49

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

W-L-T

Pts

Opp

Minnesota

104.8

104.4

104.6

3-0-0

88

57

Chicago

103.2

102.1

102.6

2-1-0

57

54

Green Bay

100.1

100.9

101.8

2-1-0

81

63

Detroit

94.1

93.3

95.2

1-2-0

59

86

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

W-L-T

Pts

Opp

New Orleans

111.5

109.8

108.5

3-0-0

120

56

Atlanta

103.6

100.2

102.6

2-1-0

57

53

Carolina  

98.5

95.7

96.2

0-3-0

37

87

Tampa Bay

88.5

92.6

91.5

0-3-0

41

91

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

W-L-T

Pts

Opp

San Francisco

102.1

102.4

103.1

2-1-0

67

53

Arizona

97.7

100.1

99.9

1-2-0

57

68

Seattle

96.8

97.8

98.4

1-2-0

57

48

St. Louis

88.5

88.8

88.9

0-3-0

24

73

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

W-L-T

Pts

Opp

New England

107.7

104.3

104.9

2-1-0

60

50

NY Jets

103.1

104.2

104.5

3-0-0

64

33

Buffalo

97.6

98.2

99.8

1-2-0

64

72

Miami

96.4

96.9

97.2

0-3-0

43

69

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

W-L-T

Pts

Opp

Baltimore

110.7

107.2

107.0

3-0-0

103

53

Pittsburgh

106.1

103.5

103.2

1-2-0

47

50

Cincinnati

100.8

100.3

101.2

2-1-0

61

56

Cleveland

89.3

91.2

88.4

0-3-0

29

95

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

W-L-T

Pts

Opp

Indianapolis

106.4

106.1

106.5

3-0-0

72

45

Tennessee

102.3

100.6

99.5

0-3-0

58

71

Houston

99.3

96.5

98.3

1-2-0

65

86

Jacksonville

95.4

98.2

98.5

1-2-0

60

69

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

W-L-T

Pts

Opp

San Diego

104.7

103.6

103.8

2-1-0

73

64

Denver

99.8

102.8

102.7

3-0-0

62

16

Oakland

92.0

94.0

92.8

1-2-0

36

57

Kansas City

89.7

92.5

90.8

0-3-0

48

85

 

This Week’s Games

Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site          
   

 

 

 

 

 

HFA for Week 4 = 2.8  

 

 

 

 

 

   

 

 

 

 

 

Sunday, October 4, 2009  

 

 

 

 

 

Favorite Underdog

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Vegas

Totals

HOUSTON Oakland

10.1

5.3

8.3

9 1/2

42   

Tennessee JACKSONVILLE

4.1

-0.4

-1.8

3   

41 1/2

Baltimore NEW ENGLAND

0.2

0.1

-0.5

2   

44 1/2

Cincinnati CLEVELAND

8.7

6.3

10.0

5 1/2

38 1/2

New York Giants KANSAS CITY

15.3

11.2

12.6

9   

42 1/2

CHICAGO Detroit

11.9

11.6

10.2

10   

38 1/2

WASHINGTON Tampa Bay

9.0

7.3

6.0

7   

37   

INDIANAPOLIS Seattle

12.4

11.1

10.9

NL

NL

NEW ORLEANS New York Jets

11.2

8.4

6.8

6 1/2

45 1/2

MIAMI Buffalo

1.6

1.5

0.2

-2   

36 1/2

SAN FRANCISCO St. Louis

16.4

16.4

17.0

10   

37 1/2

DENVER Dallas

2.0

2.2

3.7

3   

43   

PITTSBURGH San Diego

5.2

2.7

2.2

6 1/2

43   

   

 

 

 

 

 

   

 

 

 

 

 

   

 

 

 

 

 

Monday, October 5, 2009  

 

 

 

 

 

Favorite Underdog

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Vegas

Totals

MINNESOTA Green Bay

7.5

6.3

6.6

3 1/2

46   

Advertisements

Blog at WordPress.com.

%d bloggers like this: