NFL Playoff Picture Coming More Into Focus After Just Three Weeks
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Usually after three weeks, there are about three 3-0 teams and three 0-3 teams left in the NFL. There are still seven undefeated teams and seven winless teams. It looks like some of the playoff races are already on their way to being decided.
In the NFC, Tampa Bay and Carolina have already played themselves out of playoff contention. St. Louis, Washington, and Detroit never had a chance, and Arizona and Seattle don’t appear to have it this year. Six of the remaining nine teams will play in the postseason. Count the Giants, Eagles, Saints, 49ers, and Vikings as clear-cut favorites for five of those spots. The race for the final spot is between Atlanta, Chicago, Green Bay, and Dallas.
In the AFC, count out Kansas City, Oakland, Tennessee, Jacksonville, Houston, Cleveland, Miami, and Buffalo. Indianapolis just about has the South title secured. It’s doubtful that any other AFC South team will qualify as a wildcard. The Patriots and Jets should both qualify from the East, and Baltimore should qualify out of the North. Pittsburgh has lost both games since the injury of Troy Polamalu, and both losses came from a breakdown in the secondary. The Steelers could finish at 9-7 and be on the outside looking in. Cincinnati is one freak play away from being 3-0, and the Bengals could take advantage of a softer schedule to sneak through with a 9-7 record. 9-7 may not qualify, because in the West Division, Denver and San Diego should both go 4-0 against their two weak sisters and both win double digit games.
Here’s a look at this week’s PiRate, Mean, and Biased Ratings, as well as the schedule of games with the spreads.
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Current NFL PiRate Ratings |
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PiRate |
Mean |
Biased |
W-L-T |
Pts |
Opp |
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| NY Giants |
107.8 |
106.5 |
106.2 |
3-0-0 |
80 |
48 |
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| Philadelphia |
105.8 |
105.7 |
105.1 |
2-1-0 |
94 |
72 |
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| Dallas |
100.6 |
103.4 |
101.8 |
2-1-0 |
86 |
61 |
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| Washington |
94.7 |
96.5 |
94.7 |
1-2-0 |
40 |
49 |
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| NFC North |
PiRate |
Mean |
Biased |
W-L-T |
Pts |
Opp |
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| Minnesota |
104.8 |
104.4 |
104.6 |
3-0-0 |
88 |
57 |
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| Chicago |
103.2 |
102.1 |
102.6 |
2-1-0 |
57 |
54 |
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| Green Bay |
100.1 |
100.9 |
101.8 |
2-1-0 |
81 |
63 |
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| Detroit |
94.1 |
93.3 |
95.2 |
1-2-0 |
59 |
86 |
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| NFC South |
PiRate |
Mean |
Biased |
W-L-T |
Pts |
Opp |
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| New Orleans |
111.5 |
109.8 |
108.5 |
3-0-0 |
120 |
56 |
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| Atlanta |
103.6 |
100.2 |
102.6 |
2-1-0 |
57 |
53 |
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| Carolina |
98.5 |
95.7 |
96.2 |
0-3-0 |
37 |
87 |
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| Tampa Bay |
88.5 |
92.6 |
91.5 |
0-3-0 |
41 |
91 |
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| NFC West |
PiRate |
Mean |
Biased |
W-L-T |
Pts |
Opp |
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| San Francisco |
102.1 |
102.4 |
103.1 |
2-1-0 |
67 |
53 |
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| Arizona |
97.7 |
100.1 |
99.9 |
1-2-0 |
57 |
68 |
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| Seattle |
96.8 |
97.8 |
98.4 |
1-2-0 |
57 |
48 |
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| St. Louis |
88.5 |
88.8 |
88.9 |
0-3-0 |
24 |
73 |
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| AFC East |
PiRate |
Mean |
Biased |
W-L-T |
Pts |
Opp |
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| New England |
107.7 |
104.3 |
104.9 |
2-1-0 |
60 |
50 |
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| NY Jets |
103.1 |
104.2 |
104.5 |
3-0-0 |
64 |
33 |
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| Buffalo |
97.6 |
98.2 |
99.8 |
1-2-0 |
64 |
72 |
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| Miami |
96.4 |
96.9 |
97.2 |
0-3-0 |
43 |
69 |
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| AFC North |
PiRate |
Mean |
Biased |
W-L-T |
Pts |
Opp |
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| Baltimore |
110.7 |
107.2 |
107.0 |
3-0-0 |
103 |
53 |
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| Pittsburgh |
106.1 |
103.5 |
103.2 |
1-2-0 |
47 |
50 |
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| Cincinnati |
100.8 |
100.3 |
101.2 |
2-1-0 |
61 |
56 |
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| Cleveland |
89.3 |
91.2 |
88.4 |
0-3-0 |
29 |
95 |
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| AFC South |
PiRate |
Mean |
Biased |
W-L-T |
Pts |
Opp |
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| Indianapolis |
106.4 |
106.1 |
106.5 |
3-0-0 |
72 |
45 |
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| Tennessee |
102.3 |
100.6 |
99.5 |
0-3-0 |
58 |
71 |
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| Houston |
99.3 |
96.5 |
98.3 |
1-2-0 |
65 |
86 |
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| Jacksonville |
95.4 |
98.2 |
98.5 |
1-2-0 |
60 |
69 |
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| AFC West |
PiRate |
Mean |
Biased |
W-L-T |
Pts |
Opp |
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| San Diego |
104.7 |
103.6 |
103.8 |
2-1-0 |
73 |
64 |
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| Denver |
99.8 |
102.8 |
102.7 |
3-0-0 |
62 |
16 |
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| Oakland |
92.0 |
94.0 |
92.8 |
1-2-0 |
36 |
57 |
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| Kansas City |
89.7 |
92.5 |
90.8 |
0-3-0 |
48 |
85 |
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This Week’s Games |
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| Home Team in CAPS | (N) Denotes Neutral Site | |||||
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| HFA for Week 4 = 2.8 |
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| Sunday, October 4, 2009 |
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| Favorite | Underdog |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Vegas |
Totals |
| HOUSTON | Oakland |
10.1 |
5.3 |
8.3 |
9 1/2 |
42 |
| Tennessee | JACKSONVILLE |
4.1 |
-0.4 |
-1.8 |
3 |
41 1/2 |
| Baltimore | NEW ENGLAND |
0.2 |
0.1 |
-0.5 |
2 |
44 1/2 |
| Cincinnati | CLEVELAND |
8.7 |
6.3 |
10.0 |
5 1/2 |
38 1/2 |
| New York Giants | KANSAS CITY |
15.3 |
11.2 |
12.6 |
9 |
42 1/2 |
| CHICAGO | Detroit |
11.9 |
11.6 |
10.2 |
10 |
38 1/2 |
| WASHINGTON | Tampa Bay |
9.0 |
7.3 |
6.0 |
7 |
37 |
| INDIANAPOLIS | Seattle |
12.4 |
11.1 |
10.9 |
NL |
NL |
| NEW ORLEANS | New York Jets |
11.2 |
8.4 |
6.8 |
6 1/2 |
45 1/2 |
| MIAMI | Buffalo |
1.6 |
1.5 |
0.2 |
-2 |
36 1/2 |
| SAN FRANCISCO | St. Louis |
16.4 |
16.4 |
17.0 |
10 |
37 1/2 |
| DENVER | Dallas |
2.0 |
2.2 |
3.7 |
3 |
43 |
| PITTSBURGH | San Diego |
5.2 |
2.7 |
2.2 |
6 1/2 |
43 |
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| Monday, October 5, 2009 |
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| Favorite | Underdog |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Vegas |
Totals |
| MINNESOTA | Green Bay |
7.5 |
6.3 |
6.6 |
3 1/2 |
46 |
The Pi-Rate Ratings 