The Pi-Rate Ratings

April 5, 2009

A PiRate Look At The 2009 NCAA Basketball Championship Game

A PiRate Look At The NCAA Final Four

The National Championship Game

 April 6, 2009

Ford Field: Detroit

Tip Time: 9:21 PM EDT

 

Michigan State (31-6) vs. North Carolina (33-4)

 

Note: Team info courtesy of the two schools’ official athletic websites

 

Michigan State Spartans

 

No. Name Ht. Wt. Pos. Year Hometown/High School

00

Ibok, Idong 6-11 260 C RS SR Lagos, Nigeria/Montverde (Fla.) Academy

1

Lucas, Kalin 6-0 180 G SO Sterling Heights, Mich./Orchard Lake St. Mary’s

2

Morgan, Raymar 6-8 225 F JR Canton, Ohio/McKinley

3

Allen, Chris 6-3 205 G SO Lawrenceville, Ga./Meadowcreek

5

Walton, Travis 6-2 190 G SR Lima, Ohio/Lima Senior

10

Roe, Delvon 6-8 225 F FR Lakewood, Ohio/St. Edward

13

Thornton, Austin 6-5 210 G RS FR Sand Lake, Mich./Cedar Springs

14

Suton, Goran 6-10 245 C RS SR Lansing, Mich./Everett

15

Summers, Durrell 6-4 195 G SO Detroit, Mich./Redford Covenant Christian

20

Kebler, Mike 6-4 200 G SO Okemos, Mich./Okemos

22

Dahlman, Isaiah 6-6 200 G JR Braham, Minn./Braham Area

23

Green, Draymond 6-6 235 F FR Saginaw, Mich./Saginaw

25

Crandell, Jon 6-8 225 F JR Rochester, Mich./Rochester Adams

34

Lucious, Korie 5-11 170 G FR Milwaukee, Wis./Pius XI

40

Herzog, Tom 7-0 240 C RS SO Flint, Mich./Powers

41

Gray, Marquise 6-8 235 F RS SR Flint, Mich./Beecher

 

   
Coaches  
   
Tom Izzo – Head Coach
Mark Montgomery – Associate Head Coach
Dwayne Stephens – Assistant Coach
Mike Garland – Assistant Coach
Jordan Ott – Video Coordinator
Richard Bader – Director of Basketball Operations

 

 
                                     

                               2008-09 Michigan State Basketball

                  Michigan State Combined Team Statistics (as of Apr 05, 2009)

                                           All games

 

 

 RECORD:                OVERALL      HOME        AWAY       NEUTRAL

 ALL GAMES………..   (31-6)      (12-2)      (9-1)       (10-3)

 CONFERENCE……….   (15-3)      (7-2)       (8-1)       (0-0)

 NON-CONFERENCE……   (16-3)      (5-0)       (1-0)       (10-3)

 

 

   DATE            OPPONENT                       W/L    SCORE  ATTEND

   ————    ——————–           —    —–  ——

   11/16/08        IDAHO                          W     100-62   14759

   11/19/08     at IPFW                           W      70-59    6704

   11/27/08     vs Maryland                         L    62-80    4464

   11/28/08     vs Oklahoma State                 W      94-79    4658

   11/30/08     vs Wichita State                  W      65-57    3768

   12/03/08     vs North Carolina                   L    63-98   25267

   12/07/08        BRADLEY                        W      75-59   14759

   12/13/08        ALCORN STATE                   W     118-60   14759

   12/17/08        THE CITADEL                    W      79-65   14759

   12/20/08     vs Texas                          W      67-63   17074

  @12/27/08     vs Oakland University             W      82-66   15361

  *12/31/08     at Minnesota                      W      70-58   14625

  *1/3/09       at Northwestern                   W      77-66    8117

  *01/06/09        OHIO STATE                     W      67-58   14759

   01/10/09        KANSAS                         W      75-62   14759

  *1/14/09      at Penn State                     W      78-73   10270

  *1/17/09         ILLINOIS                       W      63-57   14759

  *1/21/09         NORTHWESTERN                     L    63-70   14759

  *01/25/09     at Ohio State                     W      78-67   18767

  *01/29/09     at Iowa Hawkeyes                  W      71-56   13640

  *02/01/09        PENN STATE                       L    68-72   14759

  *2/4/09          MINNESOTA                      W      76-47   14759

  *2/7/09          INDIANA                        W      75-47   14759

  *02/10/09     at Michigan                       W      54-42   13751

  *02/17/09     at Purdue                           L    54-72   14123

  *02/22/09        WISCONSIN                      W      61-50   14759

  *02/25/09        IOWA HAWKEYES                  W      62-54   14759

  *03/01/09     at Illinois                       W      74-66   16618

  *3-3-09       at Indiana                        W      64-59   15006

  *03/08/09        PURDUE                         W      62-51   14759

   3-13-09      vs Minnesota                      W      64-56   13023

   3-14-09      vs Ohio State                       L    70-82   15728

   03/20/09     vs Robert Morris                  W      77-62   12814

   03/22/09     vs Southern Cal                   W      74-69   14279

   3/27/09      vs Kansas                         W      67-62   33780

   3/29/09      vs Louisville                     W      64-52   36084

   4/4/09       vs Connecticut                    W      82-73   72456

 * = Conference game

 

 

 

 ## SUMMARY              GP-GS   Min   FG%  3PT%   FT%  R/G  A/G STL BLK PTS/G

 —————————————————————————–

 01 Lucas, Kalin…….. 37-36  31.8  .397  .394  .810  2.2  4.6  39   6  14.7

 02 Morgan, Raymar…… 34-25  22.6  .526  .238  .654  5.4  1.2  23   7  10.4

 14 Suton, Goran…….. 31-28  26.6  .513  .409  .848  8.3  1.6  36  14  10.2

 03 Allen, Chris…….. 37-5   19.1  .371  .325  .800  2.3  1.3  14   0   8.5

 15 Summers, Durrell…. 37-13  21.4  .436  .387  .719  3.4  0.8  25  12   8.5

 10 Roe, Delvon……… 37-30  18.0  .563  .000  .459  5.1  0.9  16  28   5.7

 05 Walton, Travis…… 37-36  27.9  .415  .600  .578  2.3  3.4  56   1   5.2

 41 Gray, Marquise…… 37-5    9.7  .584  .000  .674  2.9  0.3   4  12   3.2

 23 Green, Draymond….. 36-0   11.4  .544  .000  .617  3.2  0.9  20   9   3.2

 34 Lucious, Korie…… 37-1    8.9  .376  .351  .667  0.9  1.3  10   2   3.1

 13 Thornton, Austin…. 26-0    3.7  .375  .235  .750  0.7  0.3   4   0   1.2

 00 Ibok, Idong……… 27-5    6.1  .375  .000  .667  0.9  0.2   0   7   0.4

 40 Herzog, Tom……… 15-1    2.1  .600  .000  .571  0.7  0.1   0   4   0.7

 22 Dahlman, Isaiah….. 15-0    1.8  .500  .333  .250  0.6  0.0   0   0   0.7

 25 Crandell, Jon…….  9-0    1.1 1.000  .000 1.000  0.0  0.0   0   0   0.4

 20 Kebler, Mike……..  8-0    1.3  .500  .000 1.000  0.3  0.1   0   0   0.5

 TM Team……………. 37-0    0.0  .000  .000  .000  3.2  0.0   0   0   0.0

    Total…………… 37           .452  .357  .697 38.9 16.2 247 102  72.0

    Opponents……….. 37           .414  .316  .696 29.5 11.5 220 131  63.0

 

 SCORING              GP   FG-FGA   FG%  3FG-FGA  3PT%   FT-FTA   FT%   PTS PTS/G

 ——————————————————————————–

 Lucas, Kalin…….. 37  169-426  .397   41-104  .394  166-205  .810   545 14.7

 Morgan, Raymar…… 34  131-249  .526    5-21   .238   87-133  .654   354 10.4

 Suton, Goran…….. 31  116-226  .513   18-44   .409   67-79   .848   317 10.2

 Allen, Chris…….. 37  104-280  .371   52-160  .325   56-70   .800   316  8.5

 Summers, Durrell…. 37  112-257  .436   43-111  .387   46-64   .719   313  8.5

 Roe, Delvon……… 37   80-142  .563    0-0    .000   51-111  .459   211  5.7

 Walton, Travis…… 37   81-195  .415    3-5    .600   26-45   .578   191  5.2

 Gray, Marquise…… 37   45-77   .584    0-0    .000   29-43   .674   119  3.2

 Green, Draymond….. 36   43-79   .544    0-1    .000   29-47   .617   115  3.2

 Lucious, Korie…… 37   38-101  .376   27-77   .351   12-18   .667   115  3.1

 Thornton, Austin…. 26    9-24   .375    4-17   .235    9-12   .750    31  1.2

 Ibok, Idong……… 27    3-8    .375    0-0    .000    4-6    .667    10  0.4

 Herzog, Tom……… 15    3-5    .600    0-0    .000    4-7    .571    10  0.7

 Dahlman, Isaiah….. 15    4-8    .500    1-3    .333    1-4    .250    10  0.7

 Crandell, Jon…….  9    1-1   1.000    0-0    .000    2-2   1.000     4  0.4

 Kebler, Mike……..  8    1-2    .500    0-1    .000    2-2   1.000     4  0.5

 Total…………… 37  940-2080 .452  194-544  .357  591-848  .697  2665 72.0

 Opponents……….. 37  811-1957 .414  224-708  .316  485-697  .696  2331 63.0

 

                                   REBOUNDS

 TOTALS               GP   MIN  OFF  DEF  TOT   PF  FO    A   TO  A/TO  HI

 ————————————————————————-

 Lucas, Kalin…….. 37  1178   26   54   80   47   0  169   78   2.2  24

 Morgan, Raymar…… 34   768   62  121  183   85   2   41   61   0.7  29

 Suton, Goran…….. 31   824   91  167  258   78   1   50   55   0.9  20

 Allen, Chris…….. 37   706   27   57   84   62   0   47   50   0.9  21

 Summers, Durrell…. 37   791   49   75  124   57   0   28   53   0.5  26

 Roe, Delvon……… 37   665   76  113  189   80   1   35   41   0.9  16

 Walton, Travis…… 37  1031   24   60   84   94   1  124   48   2.6  18

 Gray, Marquise…… 37   358   38   69  107   57   0   12   35   0.3  12

 Green, Draymond….. 36   410   37   78  115   63   2   31   22   1.4  16

 Lucious, Korie…… 37   330    4   28   32   36   1   47   40   1.2  16

 Thornton, Austin…. 26    97    4   14   18   14   0    7    6   1.2   9

 Ibok, Idong……… 27   164    9   15   24   28   0    5   13   0.4   2

 Herzog, Tom……… 15    31    3    8   11    3   0    1    0  99.0   5

 Dahlman, Isaiah….. 15    27    3    6    9    1   0    0    0   0.0   6

 Crandell, Jon…….  9    10    0    0    0    0   0    0    0   0.0   2

 Kebler, Mike……..  8    10    1    1    2    0   0    1    0  99.0   2

 Total…………… 37  7400  520  920 1440  706   8  598  511   1.2 118

 Opponents……….. 37  7400  342  751 1093  734   –  427  508   0.8  98

 

 

 TEAM STATISTICS                   MSU          OPP

 ————————————————–

 SCORING……………..         2665         2331

   Points per game…….         72.0         63.0

   Scoring margin……..         +9.0            –

 FIELD GOALS-ATT………     940-2080     811-1957

   Field goal pct……..         .452         .414

 3 POINT FG-ATT……….      194-544      224-708

   3-point FG pct……..         .357         .316

   3-pt FG made per game.          5.2          6.1

 FREE THROWS-ATT………      591-848      485-697

   Free throw pct……..         .697         .696

   F-Throws made per game         16.0         13.1

 REBOUNDS…………….         1440         1093

   Rebounds per game…..         38.9         29.5

   Rebounding margin…..         +9.4            –

 ASSISTS……………..          598          427

   Assists per game……         16.2         11.5

 TURNOVERS……………          511          508

   Turnovers per game….         13.8         13.7

   Turnover margin…….         -0.1            –

   Assist/turnover ratio.          1.2          0.8

 STEALS………………          247          220

   Steals per game…….          6.7          5.9

 BLOCKS………………          102          131

   Blocks per game…….          2.8          3.5

 ATTENDANCE…………..       206626       400377

   Home games-Avg/Game…     14-14759     10-13162

   Neutral site-Avg/Game.            –     13-20674

 

 SCORE BY PERIODS:           1st  2nd    Total

 ————————-  —- —-     —-

 Michigan State………..  1290 1375  –  2665

 Opponents…………….  1096 1235  –  2331

 

 

 

North Carolina Tar Heels

 

No. Name Ht. Wt. Pos. Yr. Hometown (High School)

1

Marcus Ginyard 6-5 220 G/F SR Alexandria, Va. (Bishop O’Connell)

2

Marc Campbell 5-11 175 G JR Wilmington, N.C. (Ravenscroft)

4

Bobby Frasor 6-3 210 G SR Blue Island, Ill. (Brother Rice)

5

Ty Lawson 5-11 195 G JR Clinton, Md. (Oak Hill Academy (Va.))

11

Larry Drew II 6-1 180 G FR Encino, Calif. (Woodland Hills Taft)

13

Will Graves 6-6 245 F/G SO Greensboro, N.C. (Dudley)

14

Danny Green 6-6 210 F/G SR North Babylon, N.Y. (St. Mary’s)

15

J.B. Tanner 6-0 185 G SR Hendersonville, N.C. (West Henderson)

21

Deon Thompson 6-8 245 F JR Torrance, Calif. (Torrance)

22

Wayne Ellington 6-4 200 G JR Wynnewood, Pa. (The Episcopal Academy)

24

Justin Watts 6-4 205 G FR Durham, N.C. (Jordan)

30

Jack Wooten 6-2 190 G SR Burlington, N.C. (Williams)

32

Ed Davis 6-10 215 F FR Richmond, Va. (Benedictine)

35

Patrick Moody 6-4 195 F SR Asheville, N.C. (T.C. Roberson)

40

Mike Copeland 6-7 235 F SR Winston-Salem, N.C. (R.J. Reynolds)

44

Tyler Zeller 7-0 220 F FR Washington, Ind. (Washington)

50

Tyler Hansbrough 6-9 250 F SR Poplar Bluff, Mo. (Poplar Bluff)

 

 
Coaching Staff
 
Roy Williams – Head Coach
Joe Holladay – Assistant Coach
Steve Robinson – Assistant Coach
C.B. McGrath – Assistant Coach
Jerod Haase – Director of Basketball Operations
Chris Hirth – Head Athletic Trainer
Eric Hoots – Video Coordinator
Jonas Sahratian – Strength & Conditioning Coordinator

 

 

North Carolina Season Schedule/Results & Leaders (as of Apr 05, 2009)

 

North Carolina Combined Team Statistics (as of Apr 05, 2009)

                                           All games

 

 

 RECORD:                OVERALL      HOME        AWAY       NEUTRAL

 ALL GAMES………..   (33-4)      (14-1)      (8-2)       (11-1)

 CONFERENCE……….   (13-3)      (7-1)       (6-2)       (0-0)

 NON-CONFERENCE……   (20-1)      (7-0)       (2-0)       (11-1)

 

 

   DATE            OPPONENT                       W/L    SCORE  ATTEND

   ————    ——————–           —    —–  ——

   11/15/08        PENN                           W      86-71   19623

   11/18/08        KENTUCKY                       W      77-58   21538

   11/21/08     at UC Santa Barbara               W      84-67    6000

   11-24-08     vs CHAMINADE                      W     115-70    2500

   11-25-08     vs Oregon                         W      98-69    2500

   11-26-08     vs Notre Dame                     W     102-87    2500

   11/30/08        UNC ASHEVILLE                  W     116-48   18054

   12/03/08     vs Michigan State                 W      98-63   25267

   12/13/08        ORAL ROBERTS                   W     100-84   21269

   12/18/08        EVANSVILLE                     W      91-73   21291

   12/20/08     vs VALPO                          W      85-63   10645

   12/28/08        RUTGERS                        W      97-75   21750

   12-31-08     at Nevada                         W      84-61   10526

  *01/04/09        BOSTON COLLEGE                   L    78-85   21750

   01/07/09        COLLEGE OF CHARLESTON          W     108-70   20543

  *01/11/09     at Wake Forest                      L    89-92   14714

  *01/15/09     at Virginia                       W      83-61   13811

  *01/17/09        MIAMI                          W      82-65   21750

  *01/21/09        CLEMSON                        W      94-70   21750

  *01/28/09     at Florida State                  W      80-77   11333

  *01/31/09     at NC State                       W      93-76   19700

  *02/03/09        MARYLAND                       W     108-91   20863

  *02/07/09        VIRGINIA                       W      76-61   20879

  *2/11/09      at Duke                           W     101-87    9314

  *2/15/09      at Miami                          W      69-65    7200

  *02/18/09        NC STATE                       W      89-80   21750

  *02/21/09     at Maryland                         LOT  85-88   17950

  *02/28/09        GEORGIA TECH                   W     104-74   20959

  *03/04/09     at Virginia Tech                  W      86-78    9847

  *03/08/09        DUKE                           W      79-71   21750

   3/13/09      vs Virginia Tech                  W      79-76   26352

   3/14/09      vs Florida State                    L    70-73   26352

   03/19/09     vs Radford                        W     101-58   20226

   03/21/09     vs LSU                            W      84-70   22479

   3/27/09      vs Gonzaga                        W      98-77   17103

   3/29/09      vs Oklahoma                       W      72-60   17025

   4/4/09       vs Villanova                      W      83-69   72456

 

 

 

 ## SUMMARY              GP-GS   Min   FG%  3PT%   FT%  R/G  A/G STL BLK PTS/G

 —————————————————————————–

 50 Tyler Hansbrough…. 33-33  30.2  .517  .429  .850  8.2  1.0  42  12  20.8

 05 Lawson, Ty………. 34-34  29.7  .539  .486  .795  2.9  6.6  67   5  16.5

 22 Wayne Ellington….. 37-36  30.3  .480  .408  .773  4.9  2.7  36   6  15.8

 14 Danny Green……… 37-37  27.5  .470  .414  .852  4.7  2.7  66  51  13.3

 21 Deon Thompson……. 37-36  24.9  .495  .000  .642  5.8  0.7  35  40  10.6

 32 Ed Davis………… 37-2   19.0  .511  .000  .587  6.5  0.6  14  65   6.5

 13 Will Graves……… 20-0   11.2  .437  .278  .889  2.6  0.8   7   2   4.0

 44 Tyler Zeller…….. 14-2    8.3  .472  .000  .800  2.1  0.2   3   3   3.3

 04 Frasor, Bobby……. 37-4   17.3  .330  .278  .462  2.0  1.4  22   5   2.6

 11 Larry Drew II……. 37-0    9.7  .357  .231  .412  1.1  2.0  15   1   1.4

 01 Ginyard, Marcus…..  3-0   12.3  .250  .000  .500  2.7  1.3   2   0   1.3

 15 J.B. Tanner……… 20-0    2.2  .421  .357  .333  0.4  0.1   1   0   1.2

 35 Patrick Moody……. 20-0    2.2  .583  .000  .615  0.8  0.0   2   3   1.1

 40 Mike Copeland……. 16-1    2.6  .250  .000 1.000  0.8  0.1   0   0   0.8

 24 Justin Watts…….. 26-0    3.2  .226  .000  .429  0.7  0.2   2   3   0.7

 30 Jack Wooten……… 19-0    1.9  .364  .200  .250  0.3  0.1   0   0   0.5

 02 Campbell, Marc…… 19-0    1.9  .500  .000 1.000  0.2  0.5   2   0   0.2

 TM TEAM……………. 37-0    0.0  .000  .000  .000  3.1  0.0   0   0   0.0

    Total…………… 37           .481  .387  .754 42.2 18.2 316 196  89.8

    Opponents……….. 37           .411  .338  .692 35.5 13.6 265 162  72.0

 

 SCORING              GP   FG-FGA   FG%  3FG-FGA  3PT%   FT-FTA   FT%   PTS PTS/G

 ——————————————————————————–

 Tyler Hansbrough…. 33  217-420  .517    9-21   .429  243-286  .850   686 20.8

 Lawson, Ty………. 34  179-332  .539   51-105  .486  151-190  .795   560 16.5

 Wayne Ellington….. 37  208-433  .480   82-201  .408   85-110  .773   583 15.8

 Danny Green……… 37  182-387  .470   75-181  .414   52-61   .852   491 13.3

 Deon Thompson……. 37  161-325  .495    0-0    .000   70-109  .642   392 10.6

 Ed Davis………… 37   94-184  .511    0-0    .000   54-92   .587   242  6.5

 Will Graves……… 20   31-71   .437   10-36   .278    8-9    .889    80  4.0

 Tyler Zeller…….. 14   17-36   .472    0-0    .000   12-15   .800    46  3.3

 Frasor, Bobby……. 37   36-109  .330   20-72   .278    6-13   .462    98  2.6

 Larry Drew II……. 37   20-56   .357    6-26   .231    7-17   .412    53  1.4

 Ginyard, Marcus…..  3    1-4    .250    0-0    .000    2-4    .500     4  1.3

 J.B. Tanner……… 20    8-19   .421    5-14   .357    2-6    .333    23  1.2

 Patrick Moody……. 20    7-12   .583    0-0    .000    8-13   .615    22  1.1

 Mike Copeland……. 16    4-16   .250    0-2    .000    5-5   1.000    13  0.8

 Justin Watts…….. 26    7-31   .226    0-6    .000    3-7    .429    17  0.7

 Jack Wooten……… 19    4-11   .364    1-5    .200    1-4    .250    10  0.5

 Campbell, Marc…… 19    1-2    .500    0-1    .000    2-2   1.000     4  0.2

 Total…………… 37 1177-2448 .481  259-670  .387  711-943  .754  3324 89.8

 Opponents……….. 37  991-2413 .411  267-791  .338  414-598  .692  2663 72.0

 

                                   REBOUNDS

 TOTALS               GP   MIN  OFF  DEF  TOT   PF  FO    A   TO  A/TO  HI

 ————————————————————————-

 Tyler Hansbrough…. 33   995  102  167  269   74   1   32   61   0.5  34

 Lawson, Ty………. 34  1011   23   77  100   59   0  224   65   3.4  25

 Wayne Ellington….. 37  1120   55  127  182   55   0  101   62   1.6  34

 Danny Green……… 37  1016   68  107  175   79   2  100   61   1.6  26

 Deon Thompson……. 37   920   70  143  213   81   1   26   46   0.6  22

 Ed Davis………… 37   702   81  161  242   70   1   22   40   0.6  15

 Will Graves……… 20   224   22   29   51   32   0   15   23   0.7  10

 Tyler Zeller…….. 14   116   11   18   29   19   0    3    8   0.4  18

 Frasor, Bobby……. 37   639   22   52   74   49   0   53   26   2.0   9

 Larry Drew II……. 37   360    5   36   41   36   0   74   45   1.6   5

 Ginyard, Marcus…..  3    37    6    2    8    5   0    4    3   1.3   3

 J.B. Tanner……… 20    44    2    5    7    4   0    1    1   1.0   9

 Patrick Moody……. 20    43    4   11   15    7   0    0    3   0.0   6

 Mike Copeland……. 16    41    4    9   13    8   0    1    2   0.5   5

 Justin Watts…….. 26    84    6   13   19    6   0    5    9   0.6   9

 Jack Wooten……… 19    37    0    5    5    1   0    2    2   1.0   4

 Campbell, Marc…… 19    36    1    3    4    2   0    9    7   1.3   2

 Total…………… 37  7425  545 1017 1562  587   5  672  465   1.4 116

 Opponents……….. 37  7425  481  834 1315  757   –  505  584   0.9  92

 

 

 TEAM STATISTICS                    NC          OPP

 ————————————————–

 SCORING……………..         3324         2663

   Points per game…….         89.8         72.0

   Scoring margin……..        +17.9            –

 FIELD GOALS-ATT………    1177-2448     991-2413

   Field goal pct……..         .481         .411

 3 POINT FG-ATT……….      259-670      267-791

   3-point FG pct……..         .387         .338

   3-pt FG made per game.          7.0          7.2

 FREE THROWS-ATT………      711-943      414-598

   Free throw pct……..         .754         .692

   F-Throws made per game         19.2         11.2

 REBOUNDS…………….         1562         1315

   Rebounds per game…..         42.2         35.5

   Rebounding margin…..         +6.7            –

 ASSISTS……………..          672          505

   Assists per game……         18.2         13.6

 TURNOVERS……………          465          584

   Turnovers per game….         12.6         15.8

   Turnover margin…….         +3.2            –

   Assist/turnover ratio.          1.4          0.9

 STEALS………………          316          265

   Steals per game…….          8.5          7.2

 BLOCKS………………          196          162

   Blocks per game…….          5.3          4.4

 ATTENDANCE…………..       315519       365800

   Home games-Avg/Game…     15-21035     10-12040

   Neutral site-Avg/Game.            –     12-20450

 

 SCORE BY PERIODS:           1st  2nd   OT    Total

 ————————-  —- —- —-     —-

 North Carolina………..  1646 1669    9  –  3324

 Opponents…………….  1259 1392   12  –  2663

 

 

Player Matchups

Point Guard

Michigan State: Kalin Lucas

North Carolina: Ty Lawson

 

Lawson is the best point guard in the nation, but Lucas isn’t totally outmanned in this matchup.  Lucas is probably one of the top five point guards in the nation.

 

Lawson’s advantage here is small.  Expect a great matchup at this most important position.

 

Shooting Guard

Michigan State: Travis Walton

North Carolina: Wayne Ellington

 

Walton is the best defensive player from the Big 10, but stopping Ellington will not beat North Carolina.  Ellington may be held under 10 points, but North Carolina can win nine times out of ten when he scores in single digits.

 

We’ll give another slight advantage to North Carolina

 

Small Forward

Michigan State: Raymar Morgan

North Carolina: Danny Green

 

If Morgan plays as well as he did Saturday, then he should outpace Green.  Green is at a size disadvantage against Morgan, and Morgan has the speed and quickness to stay with Green all night.

 

We give Michigan State the advantage.

 

Power Forward

Michigan State: Delvin Roe

North Carolina: Deon Thompson

 

This will be an interesting matchup.  Thompson has the better moves around the basket, but Roe has the better power game.  It will be a study in contrasts. 

 

If North Carolina gets their offense running and gunning, Roe will have a tough time contributing on the defensive board.

 

An ever so slight advantage goes to Michigan State here.

 

Center

Michigan State: Goran Suton

North Carolina: Tyler Hansbrough

 

There haven’t been many classic matchups between two future NBA centers and major contributors in the NCAA Championship Game’s last 30 years (such as Rick Robey vs. Mike Gmisnki in 1978, Sam Perkins vs. Patrick Ewing in 1982, and Ewing vs. Akeem Olajuwon in 1984).  This one looks like one of those few exceptions.

 

We believe that Suton will slow Hansbrough inside and force him to take several shots from outside his comfort zone.  Meanwhile, Suton will try to force Hansbrough to guard some from outside the low post area.

 

Hansbrough’s advantage is not that large.  Suton missed the first game between these two teams, so his presence will mean a major turnaround from the earlier game.

 

Bench Play

Michigan State

Chris Allen

Durrell Summers

Marquise Gray

Draymond Green

 

North Carolina

Ed Davis

Bobby Frasor

Larry Drew, Jr.

 

If Davis and Frasor have good games, this could be enough to throw the game in North Carolina’s favor.  It’s not that these two guys will have to dominate to tilt the game, it’s that they will allow the Tar Heels to either make a run or play more consistently

 

Michigan State has a numbers’ advantage, but with the extra length of TV timeouts, this game will not require subs entering games.

 

A small advantage goes to North Carolina

 

PiRate Criteria see articles from the week of March 16-18 for explanation of this statistical formula

 

North Carolina had the second best criteria score of the 65 teams in the field, so the Tar Heels were selected to make it all the way to the last game.

 

Michigan State did not qualify as a superior team, but the Spartans have home court advantage of about three points.  Combined with a criteria score of seven, it gives them an opportunity to be there at the end with a chance to win.

 

The strengths of schedule are nearly equal, as Michigan State gets one additional point here.

 

Prediction

We believe this game will be close and the lead will never be all that large for either team.  Michigan State will desire to make this a lower possession game, while North Carolina will try to make it a game of race horse basketball.  The Spartans will crash the offensive glass, and that will limit the Tar Heels’ fast breaking opportunities.

 

When all is said and done, North Carolina has too many weapons to ever pick against them. 

 

North Carolina 74 Michigan State 69

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