A PiRate Look At The NCAA Final Four
The National Championship Game
April 6, 2009
Ford Field: Detroit
Tip Time: 9:21 PM EDT
Michigan State (31-6) vs. North Carolina (33-4)
Note: Team info courtesy of the two schools’ official athletic websites
Michigan State Spartans
| No. | Name | Ht. | Wt. | Pos. | Year | Hometown/High School |
|
00 |
Ibok, Idong | 6-11 | 260 | C | RS SR | Lagos, Nigeria/Montverde (Fla.) Academy |
|
1 |
Lucas, Kalin | 6-0 | 180 | G | SO | Sterling Heights, Mich./Orchard Lake St. Mary’s |
|
2 |
Morgan, Raymar | 6-8 | 225 | F | JR | Canton, Ohio/McKinley |
|
3 |
Allen, Chris | 6-3 | 205 | G | SO | Lawrenceville, Ga./Meadowcreek |
|
5 |
Walton, Travis | 6-2 | 190 | G | SR | Lima, Ohio/Lima Senior |
|
10 |
Roe, Delvon | 6-8 | 225 | F | FR | Lakewood, Ohio/St. Edward |
|
13 |
Thornton, Austin | 6-5 | 210 | G | RS FR | Sand Lake, Mich./Cedar Springs |
|
14 |
Suton, Goran | 6-10 | 245 | C | RS SR | Lansing, Mich./Everett |
|
15 |
Summers, Durrell | 6-4 | 195 | G | SO | Detroit, Mich./Redford Covenant Christian |
|
20 |
Kebler, Mike | 6-4 | 200 | G | SO | Okemos, Mich./Okemos |
|
22 |
Dahlman, Isaiah | 6-6 | 200 | G | JR | Braham, Minn./Braham Area |
|
23 |
Green, Draymond | 6-6 | 235 | F | FR | Saginaw, Mich./Saginaw |
|
25 |
Crandell, Jon | 6-8 | 225 | F | JR | Rochester, Mich./Rochester Adams |
|
34 |
Lucious, Korie | 5-11 | 170 | G | FR | Milwaukee, Wis./Pius XI |
|
40 |
Herzog, Tom | 7-0 | 240 | C | RS SO | Flint, Mich./Powers |
|
41 |
Gray, Marquise | 6-8 | 235 | F | RS SR | Flint, Mich./Beecher |
| Coaches | |||||||
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2008-09 Michigan State Basketball Michigan State Combined Team Statistics (as of Apr 05, 2009) All games
RECORD: OVERALL HOME AWAY NEUTRAL ALL GAMES……….. (31-6) (12-2) (9-1) (10-3) CONFERENCE………. (15-3) (7-2) (8-1) (0-0) NON-CONFERENCE…… (16-3) (5-0) (1-0) (10-3)
DATE OPPONENT W/L SCORE ATTEND ———— ——————– — —– —— 11/16/08 IDAHO W 100-62 14759 11/19/08 at IPFW W 70-59 6704 11/27/08 vs Maryland L 62-80 4464 11/28/08 vs Oklahoma State W 94-79 4658 11/30/08 vs Wichita State W 65-57 3768 12/03/08 vs North Carolina L 63-98 25267 12/07/08 BRADLEY W 75-59 14759 12/13/08 ALCORN STATE W 118-60 14759 12/17/08 THE CITADEL W 79-65 14759 12/20/08 vs Texas W 67-63 17074 @12/27/08 vs Oakland University W 82-66 15361 *12/31/08 at Minnesota W 70-58 14625 *1/3/09 at Northwestern W 77-66 8117 *01/06/09 OHIO STATE W 67-58 14759 01/10/09 KANSAS W 75-62 14759 *1/14/09 at Penn State W 78-73 10270 *1/17/09 ILLINOIS W 63-57 14759 *1/21/09 NORTHWESTERN L 63-70 14759 *01/25/09 at Ohio State W 78-67 18767 *01/29/09 at Iowa Hawkeyes W 71-56 13640 *02/01/09 PENN STATE L 68-72 14759 *2/4/09 MINNESOTA W 76-47 14759 *2/7/09 INDIANA W 75-47 14759 *02/10/09 at Michigan W 54-42 13751 *02/17/09 at Purdue L 54-72 14123 *02/22/09 WISCONSIN W 61-50 14759 *02/25/09 IOWA HAWKEYES W 62-54 14759 *03/01/09 at Illinois W 74-66 16618 *3-3-09 at Indiana W 64-59 15006 *03/08/09 PURDUE W 62-51 14759 3-13-09 vs Minnesota W 64-56 13023 3-14-09 vs Ohio State L 70-82 15728 03/20/09 vs Robert Morris W 77-62 12814 03/22/09 vs Southern Cal W 74-69 14279 3/27/09 vs Kansas W 67-62 33780 3/29/09 vs Louisville W 64-52 36084 4/4/09 vs Connecticut W 82-73 72456 * = Conference game
## SUMMARY GP-GS Min FG% 3PT% FT% R/G A/G STL BLK PTS/G —————————————————————————– 01 Lucas, Kalin…….. 37-36 31.8 .397 .394 .810 2.2 4.6 39 6 14.7 02 Morgan, Raymar…… 34-25 22.6 .526 .238 .654 5.4 1.2 23 7 10.4 14 Suton, Goran…….. 31-28 26.6 .513 .409 .848 8.3 1.6 36 14 10.2 03 Allen, Chris…….. 37-5 19.1 .371 .325 .800 2.3 1.3 14 0 8.5 15 Summers, Durrell…. 37-13 21.4 .436 .387 .719 3.4 0.8 25 12 8.5 10 Roe, Delvon……… 37-30 18.0 .563 .000 .459 5.1 0.9 16 28 5.7 05 Walton, Travis…… 37-36 27.9 .415 .600 .578 2.3 3.4 56 1 5.2 41 Gray, Marquise…… 37-5 9.7 .584 .000 .674 2.9 0.3 4 12 3.2 23 Green, Draymond….. 36-0 11.4 .544 .000 .617 3.2 0.9 20 9 3.2 34 Lucious, Korie…… 37-1 8.9 .376 .351 .667 0.9 1.3 10 2 3.1 13 Thornton, Austin…. 26-0 3.7 .375 .235 .750 0.7 0.3 4 0 1.2 00 Ibok, Idong……… 27-5 6.1 .375 .000 .667 0.9 0.2 0 7 0.4 40 Herzog, Tom……… 15-1 2.1 .600 .000 .571 0.7 0.1 0 4 0.7 22 Dahlman, Isaiah….. 15-0 1.8 .500 .333 .250 0.6 0.0 0 0 0.7 25 Crandell, Jon……. 9-0 1.1 1.000 .000 1.000 0.0 0.0 0 0 0.4 20 Kebler, Mike…….. 8-0 1.3 .500 .000 1.000 0.3 0.1 0 0 0.5 TM Team……………. 37-0 0.0 .000 .000 .000 3.2 0.0 0 0 0.0 Total…………… 37 .452 .357 .697 38.9 16.2 247 102 72.0 Opponents……….. 37 .414 .316 .696 29.5 11.5 220 131 63.0
SCORING GP FG-FGA FG% 3FG-FGA 3PT% FT-FTA FT% PTS PTS/G ——————————————————————————– Lucas, Kalin…….. 37 169-426 .397 41-104 .394 166-205 .810 545 14.7 Morgan, Raymar…… 34 131-249 .526 5-21 .238 87-133 .654 354 10.4 Suton, Goran…….. 31 116-226 .513 18-44 .409 67-79 .848 317 10.2 Allen, Chris…….. 37 104-280 .371 52-160 .325 56-70 .800 316 8.5 Summers, Durrell…. 37 112-257 .436 43-111 .387 46-64 .719 313 8.5 Roe, Delvon……… 37 80-142 .563 0-0 .000 51-111 .459 211 5.7 Walton, Travis…… 37 81-195 .415 3-5 .600 26-45 .578 191 5.2 Gray, Marquise…… 37 45-77 .584 0-0 .000 29-43 .674 119 3.2 Green, Draymond….. 36 43-79 .544 0-1 .000 29-47 .617 115 3.2 Lucious, Korie…… 37 38-101 .376 27-77 .351 12-18 .667 115 3.1 Thornton, Austin…. 26 9-24 .375 4-17 .235 9-12 .750 31 1.2 Ibok, Idong……… 27 3-8 .375 0-0 .000 4-6 .667 10 0.4 Herzog, Tom……… 15 3-5 .600 0-0 .000 4-7 .571 10 0.7 Dahlman, Isaiah….. 15 4-8 .500 1-3 .333 1-4 .250 10 0.7 Crandell, Jon……. 9 1-1 1.000 0-0 .000 2-2 1.000 4 0.4 Kebler, Mike…….. 8 1-2 .500 0-1 .000 2-2 1.000 4 0.5 Total…………… 37 940-2080 .452 194-544 .357 591-848 .697 2665 72.0 Opponents……….. 37 811-1957 .414 224-708 .316 485-697 .696 2331 63.0
REBOUNDS TOTALS GP MIN OFF DEF TOT PF FO A TO A/TO HI ————————————————————————- Lucas, Kalin…….. 37 1178 26 54 80 47 0 169 78 2.2 24 Morgan, Raymar…… 34 768 62 121 183 85 2 41 61 0.7 29 Suton, Goran…….. 31 824 91 167 258 78 1 50 55 0.9 20 Allen, Chris…….. 37 706 27 57 84 62 0 47 50 0.9 21 Summers, Durrell…. 37 791 49 75 124 57 0 28 53 0.5 26 Roe, Delvon……… 37 665 76 113 189 80 1 35 41 0.9 16 Walton, Travis…… 37 1031 24 60 84 94 1 124 48 2.6 18 Gray, Marquise…… 37 358 38 69 107 57 0 12 35 0.3 12 Green, Draymond….. 36 410 37 78 115 63 2 31 22 1.4 16 Lucious, Korie…… 37 330 4 28 32 36 1 47 40 1.2 16 Thornton, Austin…. 26 97 4 14 18 14 0 7 6 1.2 9 Ibok, Idong……… 27 164 9 15 24 28 0 5 13 0.4 2 Herzog, Tom……… 15 31 3 8 11 3 0 1 0 99.0 5 Dahlman, Isaiah….. 15 27 3 6 9 1 0 0 0 0.0 6 Crandell, Jon……. 9 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 2 Kebler, Mike…….. 8 10 1 1 2 0 0 1 0 99.0 2 Total…………… 37 7400 520 920 1440 706 8 598 511 1.2 118 Opponents……….. 37 7400 342 751 1093 734 – 427 508 0.8 98
TEAM STATISTICS MSU OPP ————————————————– SCORING…………….. 2665 2331 Points per game……. 72.0 63.0 Scoring margin…….. +9.0 – FIELD GOALS-ATT……… 940-2080 811-1957 Field goal pct…….. .452 .414 3 POINT FG-ATT………. 194-544 224-708 3-point FG pct…….. .357 .316 3-pt FG made per game. 5.2 6.1 FREE THROWS-ATT……… 591-848 485-697 Free throw pct…….. .697 .696 F-Throws made per game 16.0 13.1 REBOUNDS……………. 1440 1093 Rebounds per game….. 38.9 29.5 Rebounding margin….. +9.4 – ASSISTS…………….. 598 427 Assists per game…… 16.2 11.5 TURNOVERS…………… 511 508 Turnovers per game…. 13.8 13.7 Turnover margin……. -0.1 – Assist/turnover ratio. 1.2 0.8 STEALS……………… 247 220 Steals per game……. 6.7 5.9 BLOCKS……………… 102 131 Blocks per game……. 2.8 3.5 ATTENDANCE………….. 206626 400377 Home games-Avg/Game… 14-14759 10-13162 Neutral site-Avg/Game. – 13-20674
SCORE BY PERIODS: 1st 2nd Total ————————- —- —- —- Michigan State……….. 1290 1375 – 2665 Opponents……………. 1096 1235 – 2331 |
North Carolina Tar Heels
| No. | Name | Ht. | Wt. | Pos. | Yr. | Hometown (High School) |
|
1 |
Marcus Ginyard | 6-5 | 220 | G/F | SR | Alexandria, Va. (Bishop O’Connell) |
|
2 |
Marc Campbell | 5-11 | 175 | G | JR | Wilmington, N.C. (Ravenscroft) |
|
4 |
Bobby Frasor | 6-3 | 210 | G | SR | Blue Island, Ill. (Brother Rice) |
|
5 |
Ty Lawson | 5-11 | 195 | G | JR | Clinton, Md. (Oak Hill Academy (Va.)) |
|
11 |
Larry Drew II | 6-1 | 180 | G | FR | Encino, Calif. (Woodland Hills Taft) |
|
13 |
Will Graves | 6-6 | 245 | F/G | SO | Greensboro, N.C. (Dudley) |
|
14 |
Danny Green | 6-6 | 210 | F/G | SR | North Babylon, N.Y. (St. Mary’s) |
|
15 |
J.B. Tanner | 6-0 | 185 | G | SR | Hendersonville, N.C. (West Henderson) |
|
21 |
Deon Thompson | 6-8 | 245 | F | JR | Torrance, Calif. (Torrance) |
|
22 |
Wayne Ellington | 6-4 | 200 | G | JR | Wynnewood, Pa. (The Episcopal Academy) |
|
24 |
Justin Watts | 6-4 | 205 | G | FR | Durham, N.C. (Jordan) |
|
30 |
Jack Wooten | 6-2 | 190 | G | SR | Burlington, N.C. (Williams) |
|
32 |
Ed Davis | 6-10 | 215 | F | FR | Richmond, Va. (Benedictine) |
|
35 |
Patrick Moody | 6-4 | 195 | F | SR | Asheville, N.C. (T.C. Roberson) |
|
40 |
Mike Copeland | 6-7 | 235 | F | SR | Winston-Salem, N.C. (R.J. Reynolds) |
|
44 |
Tyler Zeller | 7-0 | 220 | F | FR | Washington, Ind. (Washington) |
|
50 |
Tyler Hansbrough | 6-9 | 250 | F | SR | Poplar Bluff, Mo. (Poplar Bluff) |
| Coaching Staff | ||||||||
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North Carolina Season Schedule/Results & Leaders (as of Apr 05, 2009)
North Carolina Combined Team Statistics (as of Apr 05, 2009)
All games
RECORD: OVERALL HOME AWAY NEUTRAL
ALL GAMES……….. (33-4) (14-1) (8-2) (11-1)
CONFERENCE………. (13-3) (7-1) (6-2) (0-0)
NON-CONFERENCE…… (20-1) (7-0) (2-0) (11-1)
DATE OPPONENT W/L SCORE ATTEND
———— ——————– — —– ——
11/15/08 PENN W 86-71 19623
11/18/08 KENTUCKY W 77-58 21538
11/21/08 at UC Santa Barbara W 84-67 6000
11-24-08 vs CHAMINADE W 115-70 2500
11-25-08 vs Oregon W 98-69 2500
11-26-08 vs Notre Dame W 102-87 2500
11/30/08 UNC ASHEVILLE W 116-48 18054
12/03/08 vs Michigan State W 98-63 25267
12/13/08 ORAL ROBERTS W 100-84 21269
12/18/08 EVANSVILLE W 91-73 21291
12/20/08 vs VALPO W 85-63 10645
12/28/08 RUTGERS W 97-75 21750
12-31-08 at Nevada W 84-61 10526
*01/04/09 BOSTON COLLEGE L 78-85 21750
01/07/09 COLLEGE OF CHARLESTON W 108-70 20543
*01/11/09 at Wake Forest L 89-92 14714
*01/15/09 at Virginia W 83-61 13811
*01/17/09 MIAMI W 82-65 21750
*01/21/09 CLEMSON W 94-70 21750
*01/28/09 at Florida State W 80-77 11333
*01/31/09 at NC State W 93-76 19700
*02/03/09 MARYLAND W 108-91 20863
*02/07/09 VIRGINIA W 76-61 20879
*2/11/09 at Duke W 101-87 9314
*2/15/09 at Miami W 69-65 7200
*02/18/09 NC STATE W 89-80 21750
*02/21/09 at Maryland LOT 85-88 17950
*02/28/09 GEORGIA TECH W 104-74 20959
*03/04/09 at Virginia Tech W 86-78 9847
*03/08/09 DUKE W 79-71 21750
3/13/09 vs Virginia Tech W 79-76 26352
3/14/09 vs Florida State L 70-73 26352
03/19/09 vs Radford W 101-58 20226
03/21/09 vs LSU W 84-70 22479
3/27/09 vs Gonzaga W 98-77 17103
3/29/09 vs Oklahoma W 72-60 17025
4/4/09 vs Villanova W 83-69 72456
## SUMMARY GP-GS Min FG% 3PT% FT% R/G A/G STL BLK PTS/G
—————————————————————————–
50 Tyler Hansbrough…. 33-33 30.2 .517 .429 .850 8.2 1.0 42 12 20.8
05 Lawson, Ty………. 34-34 29.7 .539 .486 .795 2.9 6.6 67 5 16.5
22 Wayne Ellington….. 37-36 30.3 .480 .408 .773 4.9 2.7 36 6 15.8
14 Danny Green……… 37-37 27.5 .470 .414 .852 4.7 2.7 66 51 13.3
21 Deon Thompson……. 37-36 24.9 .495 .000 .642 5.8 0.7 35 40 10.6
32 Ed Davis………… 37-2 19.0 .511 .000 .587 6.5 0.6 14 65 6.5
13 Will Graves……… 20-0 11.2 .437 .278 .889 2.6 0.8 7 2 4.0
44 Tyler Zeller…….. 14-2 8.3 .472 .000 .800 2.1 0.2 3 3 3.3
04 Frasor, Bobby……. 37-4 17.3 .330 .278 .462 2.0 1.4 22 5 2.6
11 Larry Drew II……. 37-0 9.7 .357 .231 .412 1.1 2.0 15 1 1.4
01 Ginyard, Marcus….. 3-0 12.3 .250 .000 .500 2.7 1.3 2 0 1.3
15 J.B. Tanner……… 20-0 2.2 .421 .357 .333 0.4 0.1 1 0 1.2
35 Patrick Moody……. 20-0 2.2 .583 .000 .615 0.8 0.0 2 3 1.1
40 Mike Copeland……. 16-1 2.6 .250 .000 1.000 0.8 0.1 0 0 0.8
24 Justin Watts…….. 26-0 3.2 .226 .000 .429 0.7 0.2 2 3 0.7
30 Jack Wooten……… 19-0 1.9 .364 .200 .250 0.3 0.1 0 0 0.5
02 Campbell, Marc…… 19-0 1.9 .500 .000 1.000 0.2 0.5 2 0 0.2
TM TEAM……………. 37-0 0.0 .000 .000 .000 3.1 0.0 0 0 0.0
Total…………… 37 .481 .387 .754 42.2 18.2 316 196 89.8
Opponents……….. 37 .411 .338 .692 35.5 13.6 265 162 72.0
SCORING GP FG-FGA FG% 3FG-FGA 3PT% FT-FTA FT% PTS PTS/G
——————————————————————————–
Tyler Hansbrough…. 33 217-420 .517 9-21 .429 243-286 .850 686 20.8
Lawson, Ty………. 34 179-332 .539 51-105 .486 151-190 .795 560 16.5
Wayne Ellington….. 37 208-433 .480 82-201 .408 85-110 .773 583 15.8
Danny Green……… 37 182-387 .470 75-181 .414 52-61 .852 491 13.3
Deon Thompson……. 37 161-325 .495 0-0 .000 70-109 .642 392 10.6
Ed Davis………… 37 94-184 .511 0-0 .000 54-92 .587 242 6.5
Will Graves……… 20 31-71 .437 10-36 .278 8-9 .889 80 4.0
Tyler Zeller…….. 14 17-36 .472 0-0 .000 12-15 .800 46 3.3
Frasor, Bobby……. 37 36-109 .330 20-72 .278 6-13 .462 98 2.6
Larry Drew II……. 37 20-56 .357 6-26 .231 7-17 .412 53 1.4
Ginyard, Marcus….. 3 1-4 .250 0-0 .000 2-4 .500 4 1.3
J.B. Tanner……… 20 8-19 .421 5-14 .357 2-6 .333 23 1.2
Patrick Moody……. 20 7-12 .583 0-0 .000 8-13 .615 22 1.1
Mike Copeland……. 16 4-16 .250 0-2 .000 5-5 1.000 13 0.8
Justin Watts…….. 26 7-31 .226 0-6 .000 3-7 .429 17 0.7
Jack Wooten……… 19 4-11 .364 1-5 .200 1-4 .250 10 0.5
Campbell, Marc…… 19 1-2 .500 0-1 .000 2-2 1.000 4 0.2
Total…………… 37 1177-2448 .481 259-670 .387 711-943 .754 3324 89.8
Opponents……….. 37 991-2413 .411 267-791 .338 414-598 .692 2663 72.0
REBOUNDS
TOTALS GP MIN OFF DEF TOT PF FO A TO A/TO HI
————————————————————————-
Tyler Hansbrough…. 33 995 102 167 269 74 1 32 61 0.5 34
Lawson, Ty………. 34 1011 23 77 100 59 0 224 65 3.4 25
Wayne Ellington….. 37 1120 55 127 182 55 0 101 62 1.6 34
Danny Green……… 37 1016 68 107 175 79 2 100 61 1.6 26
Deon Thompson……. 37 920 70 143 213 81 1 26 46 0.6 22
Ed Davis………… 37 702 81 161 242 70 1 22 40 0.6 15
Will Graves……… 20 224 22 29 51 32 0 15 23 0.7 10
Tyler Zeller…….. 14 116 11 18 29 19 0 3 8 0.4 18
Frasor, Bobby……. 37 639 22 52 74 49 0 53 26 2.0 9
Larry Drew II……. 37 360 5 36 41 36 0 74 45 1.6 5
Ginyard, Marcus….. 3 37 6 2 8 5 0 4 3 1.3 3
J.B. Tanner……… 20 44 2 5 7 4 0 1 1 1.0 9
Patrick Moody……. 20 43 4 11 15 7 0 0 3 0.0 6
Mike Copeland……. 16 41 4 9 13 8 0 1 2 0.5 5
Justin Watts…….. 26 84 6 13 19 6 0 5 9 0.6 9
Jack Wooten……… 19 37 0 5 5 1 0 2 2 1.0 4
Campbell, Marc…… 19 36 1 3 4 2 0 9 7 1.3 2
Total…………… 37 7425 545 1017 1562 587 5 672 465 1.4 116
Opponents……….. 37 7425 481 834 1315 757 – 505 584 0.9 92
TEAM STATISTICS NC OPP
————————————————–
SCORING…………….. 3324 2663
Points per game……. 89.8 72.0
Scoring margin…….. +17.9 –
FIELD GOALS-ATT……… 1177-2448 991-2413
Field goal pct…….. .481 .411
3 POINT FG-ATT………. 259-670 267-791
3-point FG pct…….. .387 .338
3-pt FG made per game. 7.0 7.2
FREE THROWS-ATT……… 711-943 414-598
Free throw pct…….. .754 .692
F-Throws made per game 19.2 11.2
REBOUNDS……………. 1562 1315
Rebounds per game….. 42.2 35.5
Rebounding margin….. +6.7 –
ASSISTS…………….. 672 505
Assists per game…… 18.2 13.6
TURNOVERS…………… 465 584
Turnovers per game…. 12.6 15.8
Turnover margin……. +3.2 –
Assist/turnover ratio. 1.4 0.9
STEALS……………… 316 265
Steals per game……. 8.5 7.2
BLOCKS……………… 196 162
Blocks per game……. 5.3 4.4
ATTENDANCE………….. 315519 365800
Home games-Avg/Game… 15-21035 10-12040
Neutral site-Avg/Game. – 12-20450
SCORE BY PERIODS: 1st 2nd OT Total
————————- —- —- —- —-
North Carolina……….. 1646 1669 9 – 3324
Opponents……………. 1259 1392 12 – 2663
Player Matchups
Point Guard
Michigan State: Kalin Lucas
North Carolina: Ty Lawson
Lawson is the best point guard in the nation, but Lucas isn’t totally outmanned in this matchup. Lucas is probably one of the top five point guards in the nation.
Lawson’s advantage here is small. Expect a great matchup at this most important position.
Shooting Guard
Michigan State: Travis Walton
North Carolina: Wayne Ellington
Walton is the best defensive player from the Big 10, but stopping Ellington will not beat North Carolina. Ellington may be held under 10 points, but North Carolina can win nine times out of ten when he scores in single digits.
We’ll give another slight advantage to North Carolina
Small Forward
Michigan State: Raymar Morgan
North Carolina: Danny Green
If Morgan plays as well as he did Saturday, then he should outpace Green. Green is at a size disadvantage against Morgan, and Morgan has the speed and quickness to stay with Green all night.
We give Michigan State the advantage.
Power Forward
Michigan State: Delvin Roe
North Carolina: Deon Thompson
This will be an interesting matchup. Thompson has the better moves around the basket, but Roe has the better power game. It will be a study in contrasts.
If North Carolina gets their offense running and gunning, Roe will have a tough time contributing on the defensive board.
An ever so slight advantage goes to Michigan State here.
Center
Michigan State: Goran Suton
North Carolina: Tyler Hansbrough
There haven’t been many classic matchups between two future NBA centers and major contributors in the NCAA Championship Game’s last 30 years (such as Rick Robey vs. Mike Gmisnki in 1978, Sam Perkins vs. Patrick Ewing in 1982, and Ewing vs. Akeem Olajuwon in 1984). This one looks like one of those few exceptions.
We believe that Suton will slow Hansbrough inside and force him to take several shots from outside his comfort zone. Meanwhile, Suton will try to force Hansbrough to guard some from outside the low post area.
Hansbrough’s advantage is not that large. Suton missed the first game between these two teams, so his presence will mean a major turnaround from the earlier game.
Bench Play
Michigan State
Chris Allen
Durrell Summers
Marquise Gray
Draymond Green
North Carolina
Ed Davis
Bobby Frasor
Larry Drew, Jr.
If Davis and Frasor have good games, this could be enough to throw the game in North Carolina’s favor. It’s not that these two guys will have to dominate to tilt the game, it’s that they will allow the Tar Heels to either make a run or play more consistently
Michigan State has a numbers’ advantage, but with the extra length of TV timeouts, this game will not require subs entering games.
A small advantage goes to North Carolina
PiRate Criteria see articles from the week of March 16-18 for explanation of this statistical formula
North Carolina had the second best criteria score of the 65 teams in the field, so the Tar Heels were selected to make it all the way to the last game.
Michigan State did not qualify as a superior team, but the Spartans have home court advantage of about three points. Combined with a criteria score of seven, it gives them an opportunity to be there at the end with a chance to win.
The strengths of schedule are nearly equal, as Michigan State gets one additional point here.
Prediction
We believe this game will be close and the lead will never be all that large for either team. Michigan State will desire to make this a lower possession game, while North Carolina will try to make it a game of race horse basketball. The Spartans will crash the offensive glass, and that will limit the Tar Heels’ fast breaking opportunities.
When all is said and done, North Carolina has too many weapons to ever pick against them.
North Carolina 74 Michigan State 69
The Pi-Rate Ratings 