A PiRate Look At The NCAA Tournament
2nd Round Games Played On
Sunday, March 22, 2009
Friday’s games were a little more surprising than Thursday’s games, and several of the games that were won by the team expected to win were exciting and tough to the finish. Siena has now won first round games in consecutive years over teams from a power conference. The Saints could be on the verge of becoming Gonzaga East.
Our picks for day two went 11-5, bringing our total for round one to 24-8. FWIW, we not only picked Siena to beat Ohio State, we almost hit the score exactly, missing by just two points. Of course, a broken watch displays the correct time twice a day.
Here is a look at the Round of 32 games for Sunday.
(numbers in parentheses are PiRate Criteria scores)
East Region
Pittsburgh (14) vs. Oklahoma State (0) [Schedule strengths are equal]: The Panthers struggled against East Tennessee’s pressure defense, committing numerous turnovers. They could have easily become the first number one seed to lose to a 16-seed. Oklahoma State is a quicker, better version of ETSU, but Pittsburgh should be able to hold off the pesky Cowboys. We expect Pitt to be ready for OSU’s pressure and play less error-prone ball. Pittsburgh will advance to the Sweet 16.
Prediction: Pittsburgh 73 Oklahoma State 62
Wisconsin (2) vs. Xavier (8) [Wisconsin has a schedule 2 points per game stronger]: The Badgers held on tough to eke out an overtime win over Florida State Friday night, while Xavier had an easier workout against Portland State. The Musketeers could sneak into the Sweet 16. They are the type of team that can beat Pittsburgh and even Duke if their three big shooters are on their mark. We believe Wisconsin’s best days are two years down the road, and it is a credit to Coach Bo Ryan to get them to the second round this year. However, we expect the Badgers to be out of the Dance after this one.
Prediction: Xavier 64 Wisconsin 57
South Region
Arizona State (4) vs. Syracuse (4) [Syracuse has a schedule 3 points per game stronger]: This should be the best game of the day. Arizona State has two excellent three-point shooters, and it takes a good outside shooting team to beat Syracuse. The Orangemen will press the tempo and force the Sun Devils to play at a faster pace than they would like. If Syracuse can keep from hitting the wall, they should advance.
Prediction: Syracuse 80 Arizona State 71
Midwest Region
Louisville (10) vs. Siena (5) [Louisville has a schedule 4 points per game stronger]: Siena had enough talent to top Ohio State, but Louisville will be too much for the Saints to handle. The Saints will not be able to beat the Cardinals playing the same game against a team with better athletes.
Prediction: Louisville 79 Siena 62
Arizona (-2) vs. Cleveland State (7) [Arizona has a schedule 4 points per game stronger]: This should be a close game. Arizona’s PiRate criteria score is a negative number, but when you add the four points for strength of schedule advantage, this game becomes a virtual tossup. CSU plays terrific defense, while Arizona relies more on offense. This game will be decided on the Cardinal side of the court. If Jordan Hill can hit his inside shots, Arizona should prevail. If Hill cannot get open or cannot connect from his normal range, then the Vikings can be this year’s surprise team in the Sweet 16.
Prediction: Arizona 65 Cleveland State 61
Dayton (5) vs. Kansas (10) [Kansas has a schedule 5 points per game stronger]: Kansas never expected North Dakota State to keep their round one game close for 35 minutes. Dayton never really pulled away from West Virginia, but the Flyers led throughout their game. Round two should be a different bird. Kansas looked a little rusty after losing early in the Big 12 Tournament and going a week without playing. They should play much better in round two, and Dayton won’t have enough talent to stop KU.
Prediction: Kansas 74 Dayton 64
Southern California (2) vs. Michigan State (7) [Michigan State has a schedule 1 point per game stronger]: On paper, Michigan State looks to be better than USC by double digit points. However, USC has put it all together in the past two weeks and must be considered 7-10 points better today than they were in January. We’ll stick with the Spartans to sneak by in this game, but a Trojan win would be no big surprise.
Prediction: Michigan State 71 Southern Cal 64
West Region
Missouri (14) vs. Marquette (9) [Schedule strengths are equal]: Missouri will wear Marquette down as the game wears on. Eventually, the Tigers will go on a run in the second half and put this game out of reach. A Memphis-Missouri Sweet 16 match would be possibly the most exciting game of the entire tournament.
Prediction: Missouri 74 Marquette 65
The Pi-Rate Ratings 