A PiRate Look At The NCAA Tournament
2nd Round Games Played On
Saturday, March 21, 2009
Thursdays games basically went according to expectations with a few exceptions. One number 12 seed won over a five-seed when Western Kentucky controlled Illinois for much of the night. We told you we thought WKU could pull off the upset, even though the system chose Illinois (but could not adjust for the loss of a key starter). For what it’s worth, our Thursday picks went 13-3.
Here is a look at the Round of 32 games for Saturday.
(numbers in parentheses are PiRate Criteria scores)
East Region
UCLA (14) vs. Villanova (9) [Villanova has a schedule 2 points per game stronger]: Both teams had scares in round one and were fortunate to survive to round two. The Bruins have the criteria advantage here, but Villanova has home town advantage plus a slight strength of schedule advantage. This game will look similar to the 1971 championship game between these same schools. UCLA won that won by single digits. That Villanova team had two stars, whereas the UCLA squad had five really good players. Usually five really good players can beat two stars, but home town advantage eliminates that advantage. We’ll go with the Bruins in a very close game.
Prediction: UCLA 64 Villanova 62
Texas (3) vs. Duke (14) [Duke has a schedule 4 points per game stronger]: Duke has all the advantages here. Watch Duke’s Gerald Henderson and Texas’s Damion James. This is the key to this game. If James can dominate better than Henderson, Texas has a chance. We’ll select the Blue Devils to win, but it should be an interesting game.
Prediction: Duke 75 Texas 69
South Region
North Carolina (17) vs. LSU (14) [North Carolina has a schedule 4 points per game stronger]: You usually never see two power conference championship teams facing off in the second round of the tournament, but the SEC is down this year. So the regular season SEC champion faces the regular season ACC champion. Add to that the fact that both of these teams have PiRate criteria in the double digit range. This is almost a home game for the Tar Heels, and they are the dominant team in this region. Carolina advances to the Sweet 16, and the SEC is done for the season.
Prediction: North Carolina 84 LSU 70
Western Kentucky (2) vs. Gonzaga (19) [Gonzaga has a schedule 2 points per game stronger]: Gonzaga turned it on in the final minutes of the night on Thursday and put Akron away with a quick spurt. Western took control quickly in their game against Illinois and then held off the Illini at the end. While the Hilltoppers advanced to the Sweet 16 last year, while Gonzaga went home early, we feel the Bulldogs are poised to make the trip to the next round this year.
Predicition: Gonzaga 77 Western Kentucky 70
Michigan (-4) vs. Oklahoma (9) [Michigan has a schedule 1 point per game stronger]: We can sum this game up in three words: Blake Griffin’s Health. If Griffin is close to 100%, this game will be over Sooner than expected. Michigan knocked Clemson out in the first round because the Tigers couldn’t shoot straight. Oklahoma won’t miss all those open shots and second-chance shots. Michigan will have to hit close to 50% of their shots to stay in this one and connect on 8 or more treys. If Griffin isn’t at full strength, then this game becomes much closer and moves toward being a tossup.
Prediction: Oklahoma 72 Michigan 63
West Region
Connecticut (12) vs. Texas A&M (2) [Connecticut has a schedule 2 points per game stronger]: We certainly hope UConn head coach Jim Calhoun is feeling much better, but we must begin to wonder if this could be his final year with the Huskies. Maybe his players are beginning to think the same, and they want to make sure he goes out a champion. It may or may not be the case, and they may or may not have the horses to go the distance, but the Huskies have enough in the tank to eliminate the Aggies.
Prediction: Connecticut 79 Texas A&M 73
Purdue (6) vs. Washington (9) [Washington has a schedule 1 point per game stronger]: Purdue struggled with Northern Iowa, while Washington quickly dismissed Mississippi State. We believe the Huskies will advance to the Sweet 16 to take on Connecticut in a game that will bring back memories for the fans and coaches of both schools.
Prediction: Washington 70 Purdue 60
Maryland (1) vs. Memphis (19) [Maryland has a schedule 2 points per game stronger]: Was Memphis playing a weak schedule all year when they ran up such a far record? Are they the most overrated team since all those consecutive Depaul teams that lost in the first round when they were ranked number one or two in the nation? We think not. They ran into a tough team in the first round. Maryland played a fantastic first game against Cal, and they could easily play another great one against Coach Cal. In what we believe will be one of the most exciting games of the entire tournament, we’ll stick with the team we are picking to still be playing on April 6.
Prediction Memphis 72 Maryland 71
The Pi-Rate Ratings 