PiRate Ratings For NFL Week 17
Still Much To Be Decided
It seems like the end of the NFL season has come quickly this year. Maybe it seems that way because last season coincided with the Presidential election that seemed to last forever.
Unfortunately, the end of this season coincides with too many holiday plans, and this preview will be abbreviated. I will list all the playoff possibilities in this article in addition to the standings, ratings, and games. I won’t list an in-depth game by game preview or make picks due to those time limitations.
The Mean Ratings (Mean)
Just like the PiRate Ratings, the NFL Mean Ratings are not the same as the collegiate version. The NFL Mean Ratings consist of a dozen different calculations. Three calculations consist of different ways to look at point differential and strength of schedule. Five calculations look at yards gained and allowed rushing and passing and special teams play with the strength of the opponents’ rushing and passing. Point values are assigned based on each set of data. The remaining four ratings are my old four pro ratings from the 1970’s and 1980’s. The 12 ratings are given equal weight, and then I take the average (mean) to get the rating.
The Bias Ratings (Biased)
The Bias Ratings consist of five of the components of The Mean Ratings. The five ratings are not given equal weight. The five ratings are weighted at 37.5%, 25%, 12.5%, 12.5%, and 12.5%. I have back tested these ratings and found that this weighting gives the rating its best predictive percentage.
All three ratings are normalized so that 100 is average. If I don’t mess up with the math, each of the three ratings should average 100. The teams’ ratings show how many points above or below average they are in comparison with the rest of the league. A rating of 107 means that team is a touchdown better than average, while a rating of 93 means that team is a touchdown weaker than average.
I do not attempt to rate teams from different years. A 107-rated team in 2008 is not the same as a 107-rated team from 1972. We all know that due to the evolution of strength and quickness, today’s Detroit Lions would blow the 1972 Miami Dolphins off the field.
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The Playoffs Scenarios
NFC Already in Playoffs
New York Giants: Clinched #1 Seed & home field advantage
Carolina: Clinched a playoff spot
Atlanta: Clinched a playoff spot
Arizona: Clinched West Division and will play on first weekend of the playoffs
NFC Scenarios
NFC EAST
DALLAS
In the playoffs as a Wildcard with:
A. A win
B. A tie plus a Chicago loss or tie and a Tampa Bay loss
C. A tie plus a Minnesota loss or tie and a Tampa Bay loss
D. A tie plus a Chicago loss and a Tampa Bay tie
E. A tie plus a Minnesota loss and a Tampa Bay tie
PHILADELPHIA
In the playoffs as a Wildcard with:
A. A win plus losses by Tampa Bay and Minnesota
B. A win plus losses by Tampa Bay and Chicago
NFC NORTH
MINNESOTA
Clinches Division with:
A. A win
B. A tie plus Chicago loss or tie
C. A Chicago loss
CHICAGO
Clinches Division with:
A. A win plus a Minnesota loss or tie
B. A tie plus a Minnesota loss
In the playoffs as a Wildcard with:
A. A win plus a Minnesota win and losses or ties by both Dallas and Tampa Bay
B. A tie plus losses by both Dallas and Tampa Bay
NFC SOUTH
ATLANTA has already clinched a playoff spot
Clinches Division and First Round Bye with:
A. A win plus a Carolina loss
CAROLINA has already clinched a playoff spot
Clinches Division and First Round Bye with:
A. A win or tie
B. An Atlanta loss or tie
TAMPA BAY
In the playoffs as a Wildcard with:
A. A win plus a Dallas loss or tie
B. A tie plus a Dallas loss and Minnesota loss or tie
C. A tie plus a Dallas loss and a Chicago loss or tie
D. A tie plus a Dallas tie and a Minnesota tie and a Chicago win or tie
E. A tie plus a Dallas tie and a Chicago tie and a Minnesota win or tie
AFC Already in Playoffs
Tennessee: Clinched #1 seed & home field advantage
Pittsburgh: Clinched division & first round bye
AFC Scenarios
AFC EAST
The AFC East Division Winner will play on the first weekend of the playoffs
MIAMI
Can clinch the Division with:
A. A win
B. A tie plus a New England loss or tie
Can clinch a Wildcard with:
A. A tie plus a Baltimore loss
NEW ENGLAND
Can clinch the Division with:
A. A win plus a Miami loss or tie
B. A tie plus a Miami loss
Can clinch a Wildcard with:
A. A win plus a Baltimore loss or tie
B. A tie plus a Baltimore loss
NEW YORK JETS
Can clinch the Division with:
A. A win plus a New England loss
Can clinch a Wildcard with:
A. A win plus a Baltimore loss
AFC NORTH
(Pittsburgh has already won the division and secured a first-round bye as the #2 seed)
BALTIMORE
Can clinch a Wildcard with:
A. A win
B. A tie plus a Miami loss or tie
C. A tie plus a New England loss or tie
D. A New England loss
AFC SOUTH
Tennessee has clinched division and the #1 seed, while Indianapolis has clinched a Wildcard
AFC WEST
DENVER plays At SAN DIEGO. The winner of this game wins the Division. It the game ends in a tie, then Denver wins the Division. The Division winner will play on the first weekend of the playoffs.
If The Season Ended Today
NFC Seedings
1. New York Giants
2. Carolina
3. Minnesota
4. Arizona
5. Atlanta
6. Dallas
Dallas would play at Minnesota and Atlanta would play at Arizona. The higher remaining seed would then play at Carolina and the weaker remaining seed would play at the New York Giants
AFC Seedings
1. Tennessee
2. Pittsburgh
3. Miami
4. Denver
5. Indianapolis
6. Baltimore
Baltimore would play at Miami and Indianapolis would play at Denver. The higher remaining seed would then play at Pittsburgh and the weaker remaining seed would play at Tennessee
Here Is My Best Guess As To How The Season Will End
In the NFC, Philadelphia will take advantage of home field advantage and a revenge factor and defeat Dallas.
Atlanta will dismiss St. Louis with ease.
Carolina will stumble at New Orleans as Drew Brees finishes off one of the best passing seasons ever.
Tampa Bay handles Oakland at home but not by much.
Minnesota struggles but hangs up to beat the New York Giants after the Giants pull their starters in the second half.
Chicago falls at Houston as the Texans finish 8-8.
That would leave Atlanta and Minnesota as division champions and Tampa Bay as the final Wildcard. Dallas, Philadelphia, and Chicago would be eliminated.
In the AFC, Miami will take advantage of Brett Favre’s shoulder problems and take out the Jets at the Meadowlands.
New England will go to Buffalo and put up some big numbers in a win, looking like the true dark horse Super Bowl contender (but only until the Baltimore game ends).
Baltimore will methodically defeat Jacksonville in a rough game and ruin the weekend for fans in New England.
San Diego will take some revenge against Denver and claim the West Division title.
That would leave Miami and San Diego as division champions and Baltimore as the final Wildcard team.
Note: Weather forecasts and odds are those as of Friday, December 26, 2008, 12 Noon EST
You will now see multiple numbers given in the Vegas line and Ov/Un. I am listing the range given by the different books in Vegas and offshore as of 12 Noon EST Friday, so you can use the one that best meets your needs. Remember though, if you use parlays and teasers, you must use the same source. You cannot play a parlay using the odds from different books. There are no picks this week due to lack of time to study the games..
I leave it to you to find out the book in question regarding the spreads. Generally, some of the big ones in Vegas are: Hilton, Caesar’s-Harrah’s, MGM Mirage, Stations, Leroy’s, Wynn, Bellagio, Mandalay Bay, and The Palms. Some of the large offshore books include: BetUs, Bodog, Sportsbook, BetJamaica, and Pinnacle.
Average Simulation Scores for each game are now rounded to nearest whole number.
Note: The ratings and the simulations do not take into account the fact that some teams will not play their regulars much if at all this week.
NFL PiRate, Mean, and Bias Ratings-Week 17
Kansas City (2-13-0) at Cincinnati (3-11-1)
Time: 1:00 PM EST
TV: CBS
Forecast: Partly cloudy, strong wind, temperature in the mid 40’s
PiRate: Cincinnati by 3
Mean: Cincinnati by 4
Bias: Cincinnati by 3
Vegas: Cincinnati by 2.5 to 3
Ov/Un: 37.5 to 38.5
100 Sims: Cincinnati 78 Kansas City 22
Avg Sim Score: Cincinnati 29 Kansas City 22
Outlier 1a Sim: Cincinnati 40 Kansas City 21
Outlier 1b Sim: Kansas City 24 Cincinnati 14
St. Louis (2-13-0) at Atlanta (10-5-0)
Time: 1:00 PM EST
TV: Fox
Forecast: Dome
PiRate: Atlanta by 23
Mean: Atlanta by 20
Bias: Atlanta by 21
Vegas: 14 to 15.5
Ov/Un: 44 to 44.5
100 Sims: Atlanta 98 St. Louis 2
Avg Sim Score: Atlanta 33 St. Louis 11
Outlier 1a Sim: Atlanta 52 St. Louis 0
Outlier 1b Sim: St. Louis 24 Atlanta 21
New England (10-5-0) at Buffalo (7-8-0)
Time: 1:00 PM EST
TV: CBS
Forecast: Rain Showers, Very Strong Wind, Unseasonably mild temperature near 50
PiRate: New England by 8
Mean: New England by 10
Bias: New England by 9
Vegas: 6 to 7
Ov/Un: 40 to 41
100 Sims: New England 73 Buffalo 27
Avg Sim Score: New England 34 Buffalo 28
Outlier 1a Sim: New England 45 Buffalo 23
Outlier 1b Sim: Buffalo 31 New England 20
Detroit (0-15-0) at Green Bay (5-10-0)
Time: 1PM EST
TV: Fox
Forecast: Light snow ending after game starts, moderate wind, temperature in low 20’s
PiRate: Green Bay by 19
Mean: Green Bay by 15
Bias: Green Bay by 15
Vegas: Green Bay by 10 to 11.5
Ov/Un: 42.5 to 43
100 Sims: Green Bay 64 Detroit 35 1 Tie
Avg Sim Score: Green Bay 33 Detroit 29
Outlier 1a Sim: Green Bay 24 Detroit 0
Outlier 1b Sim: Detroit 38 Green Bay 30
Tennessee (13-2-0) at Indianapolis (11-4-0)
Time: 1PM EST
TV: CBS
Forecast: Dome should be closed
PiRate: Tennessee by 4
Mean: Tennessee by 2
Bias: Tennessee by 1
Vegas: Tennessee by 3
Ov/Un: 38 to 38.5
100 Sims: Indianapolis 58 Tennessee 42
Avg Sim Score: Indianapolis 25 Tennessee 23
Outlier 1a Sim: Indianapolis 28 Tennessee 13
Outlier 1b Sim: Tennessee 24 Indianapolis 10
Chicago (9-6-0) at Houston (7-8-0)
Time: 1PM EST
TV: Fox
Forecast: Mostly sunny, light wind, temperature around 60
PiRate: Chicago by 1
Mean: Tossup
Bias: Tossup
Vegas: Houston by 2.5 to 3
Ov/Un: 46 to 46.5
100 Sims: Houston 51 Chicago 49
Avg Sim Score: Houston 27 Chicago 27
Outlier 1a Sim: Houston 37 Chicago 20
Outlier 1b Sim: Chicago 32 Houston 17
Oakland (4-11-0) at Tampa Bay (9-6-0)
Time: 1:00 PM EST
TV: CBS
Forecast: Sunny, light wind, temperature near 80
PiRate: Tampa Bay by 15
Mean: Tampa Bay by 12
Bias: Tampa Bay by 11
Vegas: Tampa Bay by 12.5 to 14
Ov/Un: 39 to 39.5
100 Sims: Tampa Bay 89 Oakland 11
Avg Sim Score: Tampa Bay 26 Oakland 12
Outlier 1a Sim: Tampa Bay 38 Oakland 7
Outlier 1b Sim: Oakland 27 Tampa Bay 21
Cleveland (4-11-0) at Pittsburgh (11-4-0)
Time: 1:00PM EST
TV: CBS
Forecast: Rain showers, strong wind, temperature in low to mid 50’s
PiRate: Pittsburgh by 15
Mean: Pittsburgh by 15
Bias: Pittsburgh by 16
Vegas: Pittsburgh by 10.5 to 11.5
Ov/Un: 31.5 to 33
100 Sims: Pittsburgh 97 Cleveland 3
Avg Sim Score: Pittsburgh 29 Cleveland 11
Outlier 1a Sim: Pittsburgh 49 Cleveland 14
Outlier 1b Sim: Cleveland 13 Pittsburgh 10 (2 other 3-point wins)
New York Giants (12-3-0) at Minnesota (9-6-0)
Time: 1:00 PM EST
TV: Fox
Forecast: Dome
PiRate: Giants by 3
Mean: Giants by 2
Bias: Giants by 1
Vegas: Minnesota by 7 to 7.5
Ov/Un: 42
100 Sims: Giants 54 Minnesota 46
Avg Sim Score: Giants 23 Minnesota 20
Outlier 1a Sim: Giants 31 Minnesota 14
Outlier 1b Sim: Minnesota 27 Giants 17
Carolina (11-4-0) at New Orleans (8-7-0)
Time: 1:00PM EST
TV: Fox
Forecast: Dome
PiRate: Tossup
Mean: New Orleans by 1
Bias: Carolina by2
Vegas: Carolina by 2.5 to 3
Ov/Un: 51.5 to 52.5
100 Sims: New Orleans 55 Carolina 45
Avg Sim Score: New Orleans 33 Carolina 32
Outlier 1a Sim: New Orleans 44 Carolina 27
Outlier 1b Sim: Carolina 35 New Orleans 20
Jacksonville (5-10-0) at Baltimore (10-5-0)
Time: 4:15PM EST
TV: CBS
Forecast: Showers, moderate wind, temperature dropping from around 60 to the mid 50’s
PiRate: Baltimore by 14
Mean: Baltimore by 13
Bias: Baltimore by 11
Vegas: Baltimore by 12 to 13.5
Ov/Un: 36 to 36.5
100 Sims: Baltimore 83 Jacksonville 16 1 Tie
Avg Sim Score: Baltimore 25 Jacksonville 13
Outlier 1a Sim: Baltimore 24 Jacksonville 0
Outlier 1b Sim: Jacksonville 20 Baltimore 14
Dallas (9-6-0) at Philadelphia (8-6-1)
Time: 4:15 PM EST
TV: Fox
Forecast: Rain showers, moderate wind, temperature falling through the 50’s
PiRate: Philadelphia by 6
Mean: Philadelphia by 4
Bias: Philadelphia by 2
Vegas: Philadelphia by 0 to 2
Ov/Un: 42.5 to 43
100 Sims: Philadelphia 61 Dallas 39
Avg Sim Score: Philadelphia 27 Dallas 22
Outlier 1a Sim: Philadelphia 41 Dallas 24
Outlier 1b Sim: Dallas 34 Philadelphia 24
Miami (10-5-0) at New York Jets (9-6-0)
Time: 4:15 PM EST
TV: CBS
Forecast: Rain showers, moderate wind, temperature dropping from the mid 50’s to mid 40’s
PiRate: Jets by 4
Mean: Jets by 2
Bias: Jets by 1
Vegas: Jets by 2 to 3
Ov/Un: 41.5 to 42.5
100 Sims: Miami 50 Jets 50
Avg Sim Score: Miami 25 Jets 25
Outlier 1a Sim: Miami 27 Jets 14
Outlier 1b Sim: Jets 20 Miami 12
Seattle (4-11-0) at Arizona (8-7-0)
Time: 4:15 PM EST
TV: Fox
Forecast: Sunny, light wind, temperature in low 60’s
PiRate: Arizona by 8
Mean: Arizona by 6
Bias: Arizona by 8
Vegas: Arizona by 6 to 6.5
Ov/Un: 45 to 46
100 Sims: Arizona 83 Seattle 17
Avg Sim Score: Arizona 33 Seattle 23
Outlier 1a Sim: Arizona 38 Seattle 16
Outlier 1b Sim: Seattle 24 Arizona 20
Washington (8-7-0) at San Francisco (6-9-0)
Time: 4:15PM EST
TV: Fox
Forecast: Showers possible, light wind, temperature in the mid 50’s
PiRate: Washington by 1
Mean: Washington by 1
Bias: Tossup
Vegas: San Francisco by 3
Ov/Un: 37 to 37.5
100 Sims: San Francisco 56 Washington 44
Avg Sim Score: San Francisco 23 Washington 21
Outlier 1a Sim: San Francisco 27 Washington 14
Outlier 1b Sim: Washington 21 San Francisco 13
Denver (8-7-0) at San Diego (7-8-0)
Time: 8:15PM EST
TV: NBC
Forecast: Partly cloudy, light wind, temperature falling from mid to low 60’s
PiRate: San Diego by 10
Mean: San Diego by 9
Bias: San Diego by 6
Vegas: San Diego by 7.5 to 9.5
Ov/Un: 50 to 51
100 Sims: San Diego 59 Denver 41
Avg Sim Score: San Diego 34 Denver 30
Outlier 1a Sim: San Diego 51 Denver 27
Outlier 1b Sim: Denver 45 San Diego 31
The Pi-Rate Ratings 