NCAA Week 15: The Postseason Falls to BieCeS
With one weekend remaining in the regular season, the dreadful BCS has suffered from yet another snafu. Oklahoma is in the Big 12 Championship Game because a computer or two has deemed the Sooners to be a tiny bit better than the Longhorns even though Texas beat them by 10 points on a neutral field. The Big 12 should have never used BCS ranking to break three-way ties, but then again the BCS shouldn’t be there in the first place for the Big 12 brass to be dumb enough to use it as its tiebreaker.
I don’t advocate that Texas should be in that title game instead of Oklahoma or even Texas Tech. I don’t believe the BCS system to be credible; the vote of Oklahoma over Texas is ridiculous, and if Texas had been voted in by a miniscule amount, it would have been just as ridiculous.
If Oklahoma wins this week over an inferior Missouri squad, the Sooners will play for the national title against the winner of the Alabama-Florida game. Southern Cal, Texas Tech, and Penn State, as well as Utah, Boise State, and Ball State among other top contenders will get no chance to compete for all the marbles.
The Top 25 had very little movement after this past weekend. The bowl situations started to come into focus, as information started to leak out on which bowls want which teams if they are available. So, when you read the bowl section below, realize that these are not just predictions now; some of the teams are slotted based on leaked information from bowl scouts.
Personally, I believe Florida and Southern Cal are the two best teams in the nation. The Gators’ offense is as good as any college team in 13 years, while the Trojans’ defense is the best college defense in 16 years.
|
NCAA Top 25 For 2-Dec-2008 |
||||
|
Rank |
Team |
PiRate |
Won |
Lost |
|
1 |
Florida |
141 |
11 |
1 |
|
2 |
Oklahoma |
134 |
11 |
1 |
|
3 |
Southern Cal |
132 |
10 |
1 |
|
4 |
Texas |
128 |
11 |
1 |
|
5 |
Ohio St. |
127 |
10 |
2 |
|
6 |
Penn St. |
125 |
11 |
1 |
|
7 |
Alabama |
124 |
12 |
0 |
|
8 |
Ole Miss |
121 |
8 |
4 |
|
9 |
Texas Tech |
120 |
11 |
1 |
|
10 |
Boise State |
120 |
12 |
0 |
|
11 |
T C U |
120 |
10 |
2 |
|
12 |
Oregon |
120 |
9 |
3 |
|
13 |
Utah |
118 |
12 |
0 |
|
14 |
Missouri |
118 |
9 |
3 |
|
15 |
Iowa |
117 |
8 |
4 |
|
16 |
Georgia |
115 |
9 |
3 |
|
17 |
Ball State |
114 |
12 |
0 |
|
18 |
California |
114 |
7 |
4 |
|
19 |
Oklahoma St. |
114 |
9 |
3 |
|
20 |
Clemson |
113 |
7 |
5 |
|
21 |
Oregon State |
113 |
8 |
4 |
|
22 |
Florida State |
112 |
8 |
4 |
|
23 |
Rutgers |
112 |
6 |
5 |
|
24 |
Cincinnati |
111 |
10 |
2 |
|
25 |
Arizona |
111 |
6 |
5 |
|
|
|
|||
|
Note: Ratings rounded to nearest whole number |
||||
|
even though I rank them to two decimal points |
||||
PiRate Ratings By Conference
|
Atlantic Coast Conference |
|||||
| Atlantic Division |
|
|
|
||
| Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
| Clemson |
4-4 |
7-5 |
113 |
68 |
45 |
| Florida State |
5-3 |
8-4 |
112 |
70 |
42 |
| Boston College |
5-3* |
9-3 |
107 |
65 |
42 |
| North Carolina State |
4-4 |
6-6 |
106 |
70 |
36 |
| Wake Forest |
4-4 |
7-5 |
104 |
56 |
48 |
| Maryland |
4-4 |
7-5 |
101 |
62 |
39 |
|
|
|
|
|||
| Coastal Division |
|
|
|
||
| Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
| Georgia Tech |
5-3 |
9-3 |
109 |
68 |
41 |
| Virginia Tech |
5-3* |
8-4 |
106 |
65 |
41 |
| North Carolina |
4-4 |
8-4 |
105 |
66 |
39 |
| Miami |
4-4 |
7-5 |
102 |
60 |
42 |
| Virginia |
3-5 |
5-7 |
100 |
58 |
42 |
| Duke |
1-7 |
4-8 |
93 |
60 |
33 |
|
Big East Conference |
|||||
|
|
|
|
|||
| Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
| Rutgers |
4-2 |
6-5 |
112 |
67 |
45 |
| Cincinnati |
6-1 |
10-2 |
111 |
65 |
46 |
| West Virginia |
4-2 |
7-4 |
111 |
66 |
45 |
| Pittsburgh |
4-2 |
8-3 |
109 |
65 |
44 |
| Connecticut |
3-3 |
7-4 |
105 |
65 |
40 |
| South Florida |
2-4 |
7-4 |
105 |
68 |
37 |
| Louisville |
1-5 |
5-6 |
96 |
59 |
37 |
| Syracuse |
1-6 |
3-9 |
89 |
56 |
33 |
|
Big Ten |
|||||
| Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
| Ohio State |
7-1 |
10-2 |
127 |
71 |
56 |
| Penn State |
7-1 |
11-1 |
125 |
76 |
49 |
| Iowa |
5-3 |
8-4 |
117 |
72 |
45 |
| Wisconsin |
3-5 |
7-5 |
107 |
71 |
36 |
| Northwestern |
5-3 |
9-3 |
105 |
64 |
41 |
| Michigan State |
6-2 |
9-3 |
104 |
64 |
40 |
| Purdue |
2-6 |
4-8 |
103 |
67 |
36 |
| Illinois |
3-5 |
5-7 |
102 |
65 |
37 |
| Michigan |
2-6 |
3-9 |
96 |
57 |
39 |
| Minnesota |
3-5 |
7-5 |
92 |
58 |
34 |
| Indiana |
1-7 |
3-9 |
79 |
54 |
25 |
|
Big 12 |
|||||
| North Division | |||||
| Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
| Missouri |
5-3* |
9-3 |
118 |
75 |
43 |
| Kansas |
4-4 |
7-5 |
109 |
67 |
42 |
| Nebraska |
5-3 |
8-4 |
108 |
70 |
38 |
| Colorado |
2-6 |
5-7 |
95 |
57 |
38 |
| Kansas State |
2-6 |
5-7 |
92 |
67 |
25 |
| Iowa State |
0-8 |
2-10 |
86 |
57 |
29 |
| South Division | |||||
| Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
| Oklahoma |
7-1 |
11-1 |
134 |
93 |
41 |
| Texas |
7-1 |
11-1 |
128 |
82 |
46 |
| Texas Tech |
7-1 |
11-1 |
120 |
85 |
35 |
| Oklahoma State |
5-3 |
9-3 |
114 |
71 |
43 |
| Baylor |
2-6 |
4-8 |
106 |
68 |
38 |
| Texas A&M |
2-6 |
4-8 |
90 |
56 |
34 |
|
Conference USA |
|||||
| East Division | |||||
| Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
| East Carolina |
6-2 |
8-4 |
98 |
62 |
36 |
| Southern Miss. |
4-4 |
6-6 |
97 |
64 |
33 |
| Memphis |
4-4 |
6-6 |
92 |
61 |
31 |
| Marshall |
3-5 |
4-8 |
89 |
58 |
31 |
| Central Florida |
3-5 |
4-8 |
88 |
46 |
42 |
| U A B |
3-5 |
4-8 |
84 |
51 |
33 |
| West Division | |||||
| Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
| Tulsa |
7-1* |
10-2 |
104 |
73 |
31 |
| Rice |
7-1 |
9-3 |
97 |
66 |
31 |
| Houston |
6-2 |
7-5 |
97 |
67 |
30 |
| U T E P |
4-4 |
5-7 |
87 |
59 |
28 |
| S M U |
0-8 |
1-11 |
78 |
57 |
21 |
| Tulane |
1-7 |
2-10 |
69 |
50 |
19 |
|
Independents |
|||||
| Team |
|
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
| Navy |
7-4 |
100 |
60 |
40 |
|
| Notre Dame |
6-6 |
98 |
58 |
40 |
|
| Army |
3-8 |
86 |
49 |
37 |
|
|
Mid American Conference |
|||||
| East Division | |||||
| Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
| Bowling Green |
4-4 |
6-6 |
103 |
68 |
35 |
| Buffalo |
5-3 |
7-5 |
96 |
64 |
32 |
| Temple |
4-4 |
5-7 |
96 |
57 |
39 |
| Ohio U |
3-5 |
4-8 |
91 |
51 |
40 |
| Kent State |
3-5 |
4-8 |
89 |
58 |
31 |
| Akron |
3-5 |
5-7 |
89 |
60 |
29 |
| Miami (O) |
1-7 |
2-10 |
81 |
54 |
27 |
| West Division | |||||
| Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
| Ball State |
8-0 |
12-0 |
114 |
75 |
39 |
| Western Michigan |
6-2 |
9-3 |
100 |
63 |
37 |
| Northern Illinois |
5-3 |
6-6 |
98 |
59 |
39 |
| Central Michigan |
6-2 |
8-4 |
97 |
68 |
29 |
| Eastern Michigan |
2-6 |
3-9 |
88 |
59 |
29 |
| Toledo |
2-6 |
3-9 |
85 |
55 |
30 |
|
Mountain West Conference |
|||||
| Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
| T C U |
7-1 |
10-2 |
120 |
68 |
52 |
| Utah |
8-0 |
12-0 |
118 |
70 |
48 |
| Brigham Young |
6-2 |
10-2 |
106 |
67 |
39 |
| Air Force |
5-3 |
8-4 |
95 |
58 |
37 |
| Colorado State |
4-4 |
6-6 |
93 |
60 |
33 |
| New Mexico |
2-6 |
4-8 |
93 |
56 |
37 |
| UNLV |
2-6 |
5-7 |
85 |
56 |
29 |
| Wyoming |
1-7 |
4-8 |
85 |
51 |
34 |
| San Diego State |
1-7 |
2-10 |
76 |
49 |
27 |
|
Pac-10 Conference |
|||||
| Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
| Southern Cal |
7-1 |
10-1 |
132 |
73 |
59 |
| Oregon |
7-2 |
9-3 |
120 |
77 |
43 |
| California |
5-3 |
7-4 |
114 |
72 |
42 |
| Oregon State |
7-2 |
8-4 |
113 |
74 |
39 |
| Arizona |
4-4 |
6-5 |
111 |
74 |
37 |
| Arizona State |
4-4 |
5-6 |
106 |
65 |
41 |
| Stanford |
4-5 |
5-7 |
106 |
64 |
42 |
| U C L A |
3-5 |
4-7 |
99 |
57 |
42 |
| Washington |
0-8 |
0-11 |
83 |
55 |
28 |
| Washington State |
1-8 |
2-11 |
74 |
49 |
25 |
|
Southeastern Conference |
|||||
| East Division | |||||
| Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
| Florida |
7-1 |
11-1 |
141 |
87 |
54 |
| Georgia |
6-2 |
9-3 |
115 |
73 |
42 |
| South Carolina |
4-4 |
7-5 |
108 |
63 |
45 |
| Tennessee |
3-5 |
5-7 |
107 |
62 |
45 |
| Kentucky |
2-6 |
6-6 |
102 |
62 |
40 |
| Vanderbilt |
4-4 |
6-6 |
100 |
55 |
45 |
| West Division | |||||
| Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
| Alabama |
8-0 |
12-0 |
124 |
69 |
55 |
| Ole Miss |
5-3 |
8-4 |
121 |
74 |
47 |
| L S U |
3-5 |
7-5 |
106 |
68 |
38 |
| Arkansas |
2-6 |
5-7 |
102 |
68 |
34 |
| Auburn |
2-6 |
5-7 |
102 |
56 |
46 |
| Mississippi State |
2-6 |
4-8 |
97 |
55 |
42 |
|
Sunbelt Conference |
|||||
| Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
| Troy |
5-1 |
7-4 |
104 |
68 |
36 |
| Middle Tennessee |
3-3 |
5-6 |
92 |
58 |
34 |
| Arkansas State |
4-2 |
6-5 |
90 |
60 |
30 |
| Florida Atlantic |
4-3 |
6-6 |
90 |
61 |
29 |
| Louisiana-Monroe |
3-4 |
4-8 |
87 |
56 |
31 |
| Louisiana-Lafayette |
4-2 |
5-6 |
86 |
64 |
22 |
| Florida International |
3-4 |
4-7 |
86 |
57 |
29 |
| * Western Kentucky |
0-0 |
2-9 |
82 |
51 |
31 |
| North Texas |
0-7 |
1-11 |
70 |
55 |
15 |
| * Western Kentucky will become eligible in 2009 | |||||
| Their games will not count in the SBC Standings in 2008 | |||||
|
Western Athletic Conference |
|||||
| Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
| Boise State |
8-0 |
12-0 |
120 |
74 |
46 |
| Nevada |
5-3 |
7-5 |
102 |
73 |
29 |
| Louisiana Tech |
5-3 |
7-5 |
94 |
56 |
38 |
| Utah State |
3-5 |
3-9 |
93 |
57 |
36 |
| Hawaii |
5-3 |
7-5 |
91 |
54 |
37 |
| Fresno State |
4-4 |
7-5 |
88 |
61 |
27 |
| San Jose State |
4-4 |
6-6 |
85 |
53 |
32 |
| New Mexico State |
1-7 |
3-9 |
74 |
48 |
26 |
| Idaho |
1-7 |
2-10 |
73 |
57 |
16 |
|
This Week’s Games–PiRate Ratings |
|||
| Home Team in CAPS | (N) Denotes Neutral Site |
|
|
|
|
|
||
| Wednesday, December 3 |
|
|
|
| Favorite | Underdog |
Pred. Spread |
Approx. Score |
| Middle Tennessee | LA.-LAFAYETTE |
3 |
34-31 |
|
|
|
||
| Thursday, December 4 |
|
|
|
| Favorite | Underdog |
Pred. Spread |
Approx. Score |
| RUTGERS | Louisville |
19 |
31-12 |
|
|
|
||
| Friday, December 5 |
|
|
|
| Favorite | Underdog |
Pred. Spread |
Approx. Score |
| Ball State (Detroit) | Buffalo |
18 |
42-24 |
|
|
|
||
| Saturday, December 6 | |||
| Favorite | Underdog |
Pred. Spread |
Approx. Score |
| Pittsburgh | CONNECTICUT |
1 |
24-23 |
| TULSA | East Carolina |
9 |
40-31 |
| Navy | Army |
14 |
21-7 |
| Boston College | Virginia Tech |
1 |
21-20 |
| CALIFORNIA | Washington |
34 |
44-10 |
| Florida | Alabama |
17 |
31-14 |
| Southern Cal | U C L A |
30 |
30-0 |
| FLA. INT’L | Western Ky. |
7 |
28-21 |
| TROY | Arkansas State |
17 |
38-21 |
| ARIZONA | Arizona State |
8 |
35-27 |
| WEST VIRGINIA | South Florida |
9 |
30-21 |
| Oklahoma | Missouri |
16 |
49-33 |
| Cincinnati | HAWAII |
16 |
26-10 |
|
This Week’s Games–Mean Ratings |
||
| Home Team in CAPS | (N) Denotes Neutral Site |
|
| Wednesday, December 3 |
|
|
| Favorite | Underdog |
Pred. Score |
| LA.-LAFAYETTE | Middle Tennessee |
27-24 |
|
|
||
| Thursday, December 4 |
|
|
| Favorite | Underdog |
Pred. Score |
| RUTGERS | Louisville |
34-21 |
|
|
||
| Friday, December 5 |
|
|
| Favorite | Underdog |
Pred. Score |
| Ball State (Detroit) | Buffalo |
37-24 |
|
|
||
| Saturday, December 6 |
|
|
| Favorite | Underdog |
Pred. Score |
| Pittsburgh | CONNECTICUT |
21-21 to OT |
| TULSA | East Carolina |
42-34 |
| Navy (Philadelphia) | Army |
35-24 |
| Boston Coll. (Jacksonville) | Virginia Tech |
20-17 |
| CALIFORNIA | Washington |
42-10 |
| Florida (Atlanta) | Alabama |
27-17 |
| Southern Cal | U C L A |
34-7 |
| FLA. INT’L | Western Ky. |
30-20 |
| TROY | Arkansas State |
34-24 |
| ARIZONA | Arizona State |
28-20 |
| WEST VIRGINIA | South Florida |
24-19 |
| Oklahoma (Kansas City) | Missouri |
44-31 |
| Cincinnati | HAWAII |
27-17 |
Bowl Outlook By Conference
Teams in all CAPS have already accepted invitations to that bowl.
ACC
After having a new team at the top of each division for multiple weeks, Boston College and Virginia Tech both won last week when they had to win. Now, the winner of their game will advance to the Orange Bowl, while the loser probably drops to the Champs Sports Bowl.
With Georgia Tech’s win over Georgia, their hometown bowl will be glad to take the Yellow Jackets. That bowl prefers a ranked team coming off a win, and Tech fits that bill.
Florida State will get the Gator Bowl invitation regardless of how the ACC title game turns out. The Gator Bowl does not want to have the loser of the title game returning to Jacksonville three weeks later.
1. Orange Bowl-Boston College 10-3 vs. Cincinnati
2. Chick-fil-a-Georgia Tech 9-3 vs. L S U
3. Gator-Florida State 8-4 vs. Nebraska
4. Champs Sports-Virginia Tech 8-5 vs. Wisconsin
5. Music City-North Carolina 8-4 vs. Vanderbilt
6. Meineke Car Care-Miami 7-5 vs. West Virginia
7. Eagle Bank-Wake Forest 7-5 vs. NAVY
8. Emerald-Clemson 7-5 vs. California
9. Humanitarian-Maryland 7-5 vs. Nevada
10. Hawaii (at-large)-N.C. State 6-6 vs. Southern Miss.
Big East
Cincinnati has clinched a BCS Bowl spot. The Bearcats are more than likely headed to the Orange Bowl.
Notre Dame’s loss to USC means the Irish may not seize one of this league’s bids. If Rutgers beats Louisville, then there will be six, seven-win bowl eligible teams for six bowls; Notre Dame would not be eligible for a Big East Bowl, so they would become the top 6-6 at-large possibility. Should Louisville win this week, then Notre Dame will be headed to El Paso.
1. Orange-Cincinnati 11-2 vs. Boston College
2. Sun-Rutgers 7-5 vs. Oregon State
3. St. Petersburg-South Florida 7-5 vs. East Carolina
4. Meineke Car Care-West Virginia 8-4 vs. Miami (Fla)
5. International-Connecticut 8-4 vs. Buffalo
6. Papa John’s-Pittsburgh 8-4 vs. Middle Tennessee State
Big Ten
Ohio State is almost assured to get the final BCS Bowl bid over Boise State, so the Big Ten will not have enough bowl-eligible teams for their seven allotted bids. That may open the Motor City Bowl for a possible match of undefeated teams.
Although not technically official, Penn State has been mathematically eliminated from moving into the National Championship Game. Thus, I have them “officially” in the Rose Bowl.
1. Rose-PENN STATE 11-1 vs. Southern Cal
2. Fiesta-Ohio State 10-2 vs. Texas
3. Capital One-Michigan State 9-3 vs. Georgia
3. Outback-Iowa 8-4 vs. South Carolina
4. Champs Sports-Wisconsin 7-5 vs. Virginia Tech
5. Alamo-Northwestern 9-3 vs. Missouri
6. Insight-Minnesota 7-5 vs. Kansas
7. Motor City-No qualifying team
Big 12
Missouri is being overlooked by everybody but Oklahoma this week, so I expect the Sooners to drill the Tigers.
With two teams headed to BCS Bowls, and with Colorado failing to upset Nebraska, this league will fall two teams short.
1. BCS National Championship-Oklahoma 12-1 vs. Florida
2. Fiesta-Texas 11-1 vs. Ohio State
3. Cotton-Texas Tech 11-1 vs. Ole Miss
4. Gator-Nebraska 8-4 vs. Florida State
5. Holiday-Oklahoma State 9-3 vs. Oregon
6. Alamo-Missouri 9-4 vs. Northwestern
7. Insight-Kansas 6-6 vs. Minnesota
8. Independence-No Qualifying Team
9. Texas-No Qualifying team
C-USA
Tulsa and East Carolina are the two divisional champions, and I believe the Golden Hurricane will win the title game this week. Rice is the best team in this league as the season ends, but the Owls will not be at the top of the list for those remaining bowl-eligible teams. Expect to see Rice fall to the Texas Bowl.
Unless another bowl chooses them first, Houston may wind up in Ft. Worth playing Air Force in a rematch of a game played in the regular season. I think Rice would be a better opponent, but the Cougars are the better drawing team.
1. Liberty-Tulsa 11-2 vs. Kentucky
2. St. Petersburg-East Carolina 8-5 vs. South Florida
3. G M A C-Southern Miss. 6-6 vs. Central Michigan
4. Armed Forces-Houston 7-5 vs. Air Force
5. Texas-Rice 9-3 vs. Notre Dame
6. New Orleans-Memphis 6-6 vs. Troy
Independent
Navy is headed to the Eagle Bank Bowl regardless of their outcome with Army this week. We know for sure that Maryland will not be their opponent in a possible in-state rivalry game. The Terps have final exams that week, and they will not accept a bowl bid during exam week.
Notre Dame will still be invited to a bowl at 6-6. They will be the first 6-6 team invited as an at-large team. I believe they will be headed to Houston.
1. Texas (at-large)-Notre Dame 6-6 vs. Rice
2. Eagle Bank-NAVY 7-5 vs. Miami (Fla.)
M A C
Ball State should handle Buffalo this week. If they do, I expect the Motor City Bowl to make a deal with the WAC to release Boise State to come to Detroit in a battle of the unbeatens. It will thus become the top non-BCS bowl.
The MAC will benefit from the failure of other conferences not being able to fulfill their bowl quotas. Three more teams (Western Michigan, Central Michigan, and Buffalo) have seven wins, so there will be one extra bowl invitation for the MAC. I have Western Michigan playing in an at-large bowl, but there is no news leaks about where they might be headed. I have them headed west based on the fact that Boise State won’t be selected by the Poinsettia Bowl as they have that right.
1. Motor City-Ball State 13-0 vs. Boise State
2. International-Buffalo 8-5 vs. Connecticut
3. G M A C-Central Michigan 9-3 vs. Southern Miss.
4. Poinsettia (at-large)-Western Michigan 9-3 vs. T C U
Mountain West
Utah is officially a BCS bowl invitee. It appears that they are headed to the Big Easy to play in the Sugar Bowl.
BYU has been to the Las Vegas Bowl the last three years, and I believe the folks in sin city will invite the Cougars a fourth consecutive time. TCU is still a possibility, but in this time of economic turmoil, I’m guessing it will be a number’s game that comes up craps for the Frogs.
1. Sugar-Utah 12-0 vs. Alabama
2. Las Vegas-B Y U 10-2 vs. Arizona
3. Poinsettia-T C U 10-2 vs. Western Michigan
4. New Mexico-Colorado State 6-6 vs. Fresno State
5. Armed Forces-Air Force 8-4 vs. Houston
Pac-10
Oregon made the Rose Bowl officials happy when they defeated Oregon State. Now Southern Cal needs to defeat UCLA to return to Pasadena for another game.
Arizona State can still become bowl-eligible with a win at Arizona, but I think the Wildcats have a huge revenge motive that will end the season for the Sun Devils. Thus, I have the Pac-10 falling two spots shy of fulfilling its obligations.
1. Rose-Southern Cal 11-1 vs. Penn State
2. Holiday-Oregon 9-3 vs. Oklahoma State
3. Sun-Oregon State 8-4 vs. Rutgers
4. Las Vegas-Arizona 7-5 vs. B Y U
5. Emerald-California 8-4 vs. Wake Forest
6. Poinsettia-No qualifying team
7. Hawaii- No qualifying team
S E C
What happens if Florida beats Alabama in overtime or by one point in regulation? Might there be a rematch in a month for the National Championship? It’s not going to happen for two reasons. First, a loss of any kind will put Alabama behind both Oklahoma and Texas. Second, I believe Florida will win this week by double digits. No matter which team loses, it will be headed to New Orleans. A Florida-Utah game would be interesting because of Urban Meyer.
There is a rumor going around that the Capital One Bowl could take Ole Miss over Georgia. I think that rumor has merits, but I don’t expect the Rebels to end up in Orlando.
1. National Championship-Florida 12-1 vs. Oklahoma
2. Sugar-Alabama 12-1 vs. Utah
3. Capital One-Georgia 10-2 vs. Ohio State
4. Outback-South Carolina 7-5 vs. Michigan State
5. Cotton-Ole Miss 8-4 vs. Texas Tech
6. Chick-fil-a-L S U 7-5 vs. Georgia Tech
7. Music City-Vanderbilt 6-6 vs. North Carolina
8. Liberty-Kentucky 6-6 vs. Tulsa
9. Independence-No qualifying team
10. Papa John’s-No qualifying team
Sunbelt
Troy should beat Arkansas State this weekend to wrap up the SBC title. They will be the only seven-win team in the league, but it is likely that two six-win teams will receive at-large bids. The winner of the UL-Lafayette-Middle Tennessee game will likely wind up in Birmingham, while either Arkansas State or Florida Atlantic will take the Independence Bowl bid. I’m guessing ASU will be picked over FAU. Of course, if ASU beats Troy, they will head to New Orleans. Troy would then head to Birmingham, and ULL or MTSU will end up in Shreveport.
1. New Orleans-Troy 8-4 vs. Memphis
2. Independence (at-large) Arkansas State 6-6 vs. La. Tech
3. Papa John’s (at-large) Middle Tennessee 6-6 vs. Pittsburgh
W A C
The Boise State-Ball State mini-dream game is still full of potential pitfalls. The Humanitarian Bowl wants to host this game, but Ball State doesn’t want to play Boise State on the blue turf. Boise State may think Detroit is too close to Muncie, Indiana. The Independence Bowl has been mentioned as a possible site since it will have to find two at-large teams, but the Independence Bowl is supposed to take a Sunbelt team if they don’t have an SEC team. Louisiana Tech is a great bet to be the other at-large team in Shreveport. I believe the Motor City Bowl is the best option. That will allow the Humanitarian Bowl to take Nevada and cause no further bowl interruptions. If the big game ends up in Boise, then the ACC will have to be compensated. They have more than enough eligible teams to meet their obligations.
1. Motor City-Boise State 12-0 vs. Ball State
2. Humanitarian-Nevada 6-6 vs. Maryland
3. New Mexico-Fresno State 7-5 vs. Colorado State
4. Hawaii-Hawaii 7-6 vs. North Carolina State
5. Independence (at-large)-La. Tech 8-4 vs. Arkansas St.
The Pi-Rate Ratings 