NCAA Week 14: Oh What A Mess!!!
The conclusion of the 2008 FBS regular season begins this week and finishes next week. There are multiple problems with the postseason as of now, and I don’t believe these problems will all be resolved by Saturday, December 6.
The national championship will produce controversy no matter which two teams are picked for the game. Eight or more teams could conceivable have realistic arguments in favor of their being one of the final two. The system is set up for failure, especially this season. Except for 2005, this inept method of picking teams has “gotten it wrong” just about every season since its inception.
The non-BCS bowl situation couldn’t be more messed up today. Six bowl will more than likely need at-large entries as the conferences which with they have agreements will not provide enough bowl eligible teams. The poor Independence bowl will have to find two at-large teams unless a couple of miracle upsets occur this week.
| NCAA Top 25 For 25-Nov-2008 | ||||
| Rank | Team | PiRate | Won | Lost |
|
1 |
Florida |
140 |
10 |
1 |
|
2 |
Oklahoma |
133 |
10 |
1 |
|
3 |
Southern Cal |
132 |
9 |
1 |
|
4 |
Texas |
128 |
10 |
1 |
|
5 |
Ohio St. |
127 |
10 |
2 |
|
6 |
Penn St. |
125 |
11 |
1 |
|
7 |
Texas Tech |
122 |
10 |
1 |
|
8 |
Missouri |
121 |
9 |
2 |
|
9 |
Alabama |
120 |
11 |
0 |
|
10 |
T C U |
120 |
10 |
2 |
|
11 |
Georgia |
119 |
9 |
2 |
|
12 |
Utah |
118 |
12 |
0 |
|
13 |
Oregon State |
118 |
8 |
3 |
|
14 |
Ole Miss |
117 |
7 |
4 |
|
15 |
Iowa |
117 |
8 |
4 |
|
16 |
Boise State |
116 |
11 |
0 |
|
17 |
Oklahoma St. |
115 |
9 |
2 |
|
18 |
Oregon |
115 |
8 |
3 |
|
19 |
California |
114 |
7 |
4 |
|
20 |
Ball State |
113 |
11 |
0 |
|
21 |
Florida State |
113 |
8 |
3 |
|
22 |
Rutgers |
112 |
6 |
5 |
|
23 |
West Virginia |
112 |
7 |
3 |
|
24 |
Cincinnati |
111 |
9 |
2 |
|
25 |
South Carolina |
111 |
7 |
4 |
| Note: Ratings rounded to nearest whole number even though I rank them to two decimal points | ||||
PiRate Ratings By Conference
| Atlantic Coast Conference | |||||
| Atlantic Division | |||||
| Team | Conf. | Overall | Rating | Off | Def |
| Florida State |
5-3 |
8-3 |
113 |
70 |
43 |
| Clemson |
4-4 |
6-5 |
110 |
66 |
44 |
| Boston College |
4-3 |
8-3 |
108 |
65 |
43 |
| N. Carolina State |
3-4 |
5-6 |
106 |
70 |
36 |
| Wake Forest |
4-4 |
6-5 |
102 |
56 |
46 |
| Maryland |
4-3 |
7-4 |
100 |
61 |
39 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Coastal Division |
|
|
|
|
|
| Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
| Virginia Tech |
4-3 |
7-4 |
106 |
65 |
41 |
| Georgia Tech |
5-3 |
8-3 |
105 |
64 |
41 |
| North Carolina |
3-4 |
7-4 |
105 |
66 |
39 |
| Miami |
4-3 |
7-4 |
102 |
60 |
42 |
| Virginia |
3-4 |
5-6 |
100 |
58 |
42 |
| Duke |
1-6 |
4-7 |
93 |
60 |
33 |
| Big East Conference | |||||
| Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
| Rutgers |
4-2 |
6-5 |
112 |
67 |
45 |
| West Virginia |
4-1 |
7-3 |
112 |
67 |
45 |
| Cincinnati |
5-1 |
9-2 |
111 |
65 |
46 |
| Pittsburgh |
3-2 |
7-3 |
108 |
65 |
43 |
| Connecticut |
3-3 |
7-4 |
105 |
65 |
40 |
| South Florida |
2-4 |
7-4 |
105 |
68 |
37 |
| Louisville |
1-5 |
5-6 |
96 |
59 |
37 |
| Syracuse |
1-5 |
3-8 |
89 |
56 |
33 |
| Big Ten | |||||
| Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
| Ohio State |
7-1 |
10-2 |
127 |
71 |
56 |
| Penn State |
7-1 |
11-1 |
125 |
76 |
49 |
| Iowa |
5-3 |
8-4 |
117 |
72 |
45 |
| Wisconsin |
3-5 |
7-5 |
107 |
71 |
36 |
| Northwestern |
5-3 |
9-3 |
105 |
64 |
41 |
| Michigan State |
6-2 |
9-3 |
104 |
64 |
40 |
| Purdue |
2-6 |
4-8 |
103 |
67 |
36 |
| Illinois |
3-5 |
5-7 |
102 |
65 |
37 |
| Michigan |
2-6 |
3-9 |
96 |
57 |
39 |
| Minnesota |
3-5 |
7-5 |
92 |
58 |
34 |
| Indiana |
1-7 |
3-9 |
79 |
54 |
25 |
| Big 12 | |||||
| North Division | |||||
| Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
| Missouri |
5-2 |
9-2 |
121 |
75 |
46 |
| Nebraska |
4-3 |
7-4 |
109 |
70 |
39 |
| Kansas |
3-4 |
6-5 |
106 |
66 |
40 |
| Colorado |
2-5 |
5-6 |
94 |
56 |
38 |
| Kansas State |
2-6 |
5-7 |
92 |
67 |
25 |
| Iowa State |
0-8 |
2-10 |
86 |
57 |
29 |
| South Division |
|
|
|
|
|
| Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
| Oklahoma |
6-1 |
10-1 |
133 |
90 |
43 |
| Texas |
6-1 |
10-1 |
128 |
82 |
46 |
| Texas Tech |
6-1 |
10-1 |
122 |
85 |
37 |
| Oklahoma State |
5-2 |
9-2 |
115 |
69 |
46 |
| Baylor |
2-5 |
4-7 |
104 |
66 |
38 |
| Texas A&M |
2-5 |
4-7 |
90 |
56 |
34 |
| Conference USA | |||||
| East Division | |||||
| Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
| Southern Miss. |
3-4 |
5-6 |
97 |
64 |
33 |
| East Carolina |
5-2 |
7-4 |
94 |
59 |
35 |
| Central Florida |
3-4 |
4-7 |
92 |
50 |
42 |
| Memphis |
3-4 |
5-6 |
89 |
59 |
30 |
| Marshall |
3-4 |
4-7 |
87 |
56 |
31 |
| U A B |
2-5 |
3-8 |
80 |
51 |
29 |
| West Division |
|
|
|
|
|
| Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
| Tulsa |
6-1 |
9-2 |
106 |
73 |
33 |
| Houston |
6-1 |
7-4 |
99 |
67 |
32 |
| Rice |
6-1 |
8-3 |
95 |
64 |
31 |
| U T E P |
4-3 |
5-6 |
91 |
61 |
30 |
| S M U |
0-7 |
1-10 |
78 |
57 |
21 |
| Tulane |
1-6 |
2-9 |
72 |
50 |
22 |
| Independents | |||||
| Team |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
|
| Notre Dame |
6-5 |
98 |
58 |
40 |
|
| Navy |
6-4 |
97 |
60 |
37 |
|
| Army |
3-8 |
86 |
49 |
37 |
|
| Mid American Conference | |||||
| East Division | |||||
| Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
| Buffalo |
5-2 |
7-4 |
99 |
66 |
33 |
| Bowling Green |
3-4 |
5-6 |
98 |
66 |
32 |
| Temple |
3-4 |
4-7 |
94 |
57 |
37 |
| Akron |
3-4 |
5-6 |
91 |
62 |
29 |
| Ohio U |
2-5 |
3-8 |
89 |
49 |
40 |
| Kent State |
2-5 |
3-8 |
86 |
57 |
29 |
| Miami (O) |
1-6 |
2-9 |
83 |
55 |
28 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| West Division |
|
|
|
|
|
| Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
| Ball State |
7-0 |
11-0 |
113 |
74 |
39 |
| Western Michigan |
6-1 |
9-2 |
101 |
64 |
37 |
| Northern Illinois |
5-3 |
6-5 |
101 |
62 |
39 |
| Central Michigan |
6-1 |
8-3 |
100 |
68 |
32 |
| Toledo |
2-5 |
3-8 |
90 |
58 |
32 |
| Eastern Michigan |
1-6 |
2-9 |
84 |
55 |
29 |
| Mountain West Conference | |||||
| Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
| T C U |
7-1 |
10-2 |
120 |
68 |
52 |
| Utah |
8-0 |
12-0 |
118 |
70 |
48 |
| Brigham Young |
6-2 |
10-2 |
106 |
67 |
39 |
| Air Force |
5-3 |
8-4 |
95 |
58 |
37 |
| Colorado State |
4-4 |
6-6 |
93 |
60 |
33 |
| New Mexico |
2-6 |
4-8 |
93 |
56 |
37 |
| UNLV |
2-6 |
5-7 |
85 |
56 |
29 |
| Wyoming |
1-7 |
4-8 |
85 |
51 |
34 |
| San Diego State |
1-7 |
2-10 |
76 |
49 |
27 |
| Pac-10 Conference | |||||
| Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
| Southern Cal |
7-1 |
9-1 |
132 |
73 |
59 |
| Oregon State |
7-1 |
8-3 |
118 |
75 |
43 |
| Oregon |
6-2 |
8-3 |
115 |
73 |
42 |
| California |
5-3 |
7-4 |
114 |
72 |
42 |
| Arizona |
4-4 |
6-5 |
111 |
74 |
37 |
| Stanford |
4-5 |
5-7 |
106 |
64 |
42 |
| Arizona State |
3-4 |
4-6 |
105 |
64 |
41 |
| U C L A |
3-4 |
4-6 |
100 |
57 |
43 |
| Washington |
0-8 |
0-11 |
83 |
55 |
28 |
| Washington State |
1-8 |
2-10 |
73 |
49 |
24 |
| Southeastern Conference | |||||
| East Division | |||||
| Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
| Florida |
7-1 |
10-1 |
140 |
87 |
53 |
| Georgia |
6-2 |
9-2 |
119 |
73 |
46 |
| South Carolina |
4-4 |
7-4 |
111 |
65 |
46 |
| Tennessee |
2-5 |
4-7 |
105 |
61 |
44 |
| Kentucky |
2-5 |
6-5 |
104 |
63 |
41 |
| Vanderbilt |
4-4 |
6-5 |
102 |
57 |
45 |
| West Division |
|
|
|
|
|
| Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
| Alabama |
7-0 |
11-0 |
120 |
68 |
52 |
| Ole Miss |
4-3 |
7-4 |
117 |
71 |
46 |
| L S U |
3-4 |
7-4 |
107 |
68 |
39 |
| Auburn |
2-5 |
5-6 |
106 |
58 |
48 |
| Mississippi State |
2-5 |
4-7 |
102 |
57 |
45 |
| Arkansas |
1-6 |
4-6 |
101 |
67 |
34 |
| Sunbelt Conference | |||||
| Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
| Troy |
5-1 |
7-4 |
104 |
68 |
36 |
| Arkansas State |
3-2 |
5-5 |
93 |
61 |
32 |
| Middle Tennessee |
3-3 |
5-6 |
92 |
58 |
34 |
| Florida Atlantic |
3-3 |
5-6 |
92 |
61 |
31 |
| La.-Monroe |
3-4 |
4-8 |
87 |
56 |
31 |
| La.-Lafayette |
4-2 |
5-6 |
86 |
64 |
22 |
| Fla. International |
3-3 |
4-6 |
84 |
55 |
29 |
| * Western Ky. |
0-0 |
2-9 |
82 |
51 |
31 |
| North Texas |
0-6 |
1-10 |
67 |
53 |
14 |
| * Western Kentucky will become eligible in 2009
Their games will not count in the SBC Standings in 2008 |
|||||
| Western Athletic Conference | |||||
| Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
| Boise State |
7-0 |
11-0 |
116 |
72 |
44 |
| Nevada |
4-3 |
6-5 |
102 |
73 |
29 |
| Louisiana Tech |
5-2 |
7-4 |
94 |
56 |
38 |
| Hawaii |
5-3 |
6-5 |
92 |
55 |
37 |
| Fresno State |
4-3 |
7-4 |
92 |
63 |
29 |
| Utah State |
2-5 |
2-9 |
88 |
55 |
33 |
| San Jose State |
4-4 |
6-6 |
85 |
53 |
32 |
| New Mexico State |
1-6 |
3-8 |
79 |
51 |
28 |
| Idaho |
1-7 |
2-10 |
73 |
57 |
16 |
|
This Week’s Games–PiRate Ratings |
|||
| Home Team in CAPS | (N) Denotes Neutral Site |
|
|
|
|
|
||
| Tuesday, November 25 |
|
|
|
| Favorite | Underdog |
Pred. Spread |
Approx. Score |
| BALL STATE | Western Michigan |
15 |
38-23 |
| NORTHERN ILLINOIS | Navy |
7 |
27-20 |
|
|
|
||
| Thursday, November 27 |
|
|
|
| Favorite | Underdog |
Pred. Spread |
Approx. Score |
| TEXAS | Texas A&M |
41 |
48-7 |
|
|
|
||
| Friday, November 28 |
|
|
|
| Favorite | Underdog |
Pred. Spread |
Approx. Score |
| West Virginia | PITTSBURGH |
1 |
21-20 |
| OLE MISS | Mississippi State |
18 |
27-9 |
| Ohio U | MIAMI (O) |
3 |
20-17 |
| EAST CAROLINA | U t e p |
6 |
30-24 |
| TEMPLE | Akron |
6 |
28-22 |
| Central Michigan | EASTERN MICHIGAN |
13 |
37-24 |
| BUFFALO | Kent State |
16 |
37-21 |
| L s u | ARKANSAS |
3 |
31-28 |
| NEBRASKA | Colorado |
18 |
35-17 |
| Bowling Green | TOLEDO |
5 |
31-26 |
| BOISE STATE | Fresno State |
27 |
44-17 |
| ARIZONA STATE | U c l a |
8 |
21-13 |
|
|
|
||
| Saturday, November 29 | |||
| Favorite | Underdog |
Pred. Spread |
Approx. Score |
| ALABAMA | Auburn |
17 |
20-3 |
| TEXAS TECH | Baylor |
21 |
49-28 |
| Florida | FLORIDA STATE |
24 |
42-18 |
| Oklahoma | OKLAHOMA STATE |
15 |
42-27 |
| GEORGIA | Georgia Tech |
17 |
34-17 |
| North Carolina | DUKE |
9 |
31-22 |
| CINCINNATI | Syracuse |
25 |
35-10 |
| WAKE FOREST | Vanderbilt |
3 |
13-10 |
| CLEMSON | South Carolina |
2 |
21-19 |
| BOSTON COLLEGE | Maryland |
11 |
28-17 |
| N.C. STATE | Miami-Fl |
7 |
28-21 |
| VIRGINIA TECH | Virginia |
9 |
23-14 |
| TENNESSEE | Kentucky |
4 |
20-16 |
| Missouri (Kansas City) | Kansas |
15 |
35-20 |
| MEMPHIS | Tulane |
20 |
38-18 |
| Arkansas State | NORTH TEXAS |
23 |
44-21 |
| Nevada | LA. TECH |
5 |
35-30 |
| Houston | RICE |
1 |
35-34 |
| UTAH STATE | New Mexico St. |
12 |
28-16 |
| Southern Miss. | S M U |
16 |
41-25 |
| Tulsa | MARSHALL |
16 |
40-24 |
| CENTRAL FLORIDA | U a b |
15 |
21-6 |
| FLA. ATLANTIC | Fla. International |
11 |
35-24 |
| OREGON STATE | Oregon |
6 |
34-28 |
| SOUTHERN CAL | Notre Dame |
35 |
35-0 |
| HAWAII | Washington State |
23 |
33-10 |
|
This Week’s Games–Mean Ratings |
||
| Home Team in CAPS | (N) Denotes Neutral Site |
|
| Tuesday, November 25 |
|
|
| Favorite | Underdog |
Pred. Score |
| BALL STATE | Western Michigan |
31-20 |
| Navy | NORTHERN ILLINOIS |
31-31 to OT |
|
|
||
| Thursday, November 27 |
|
|
| Favorite | Underdog |
Pred. Score |
| TEXAS | Texas A&M |
49-14 |
|
|
||
| Friday, November 28 |
|
|
| Favorite | Underdog |
Pred. Score |
| PITTSBURGH | West Virginia |
27-24 |
| OLE MISS | Mississippi State |
28-10 |
| Ohio U | MIAMI (O) |
28-26 |
| EAST CAROLINA | U t e p |
38-30 |
| TEMPLE | Akron |
31-29 |
| Central Michigan | EASTERN MICHIGAN |
33-20 |
| BUFFALO | Kent State |
30-14 |
| L s u | ARKANSAS |
35-30 |
| NEBRASKA | Colorado |
44-27 |
| Bowling Green | TOLEDO |
30-27 |
| BOISE STATE | Fresno State |
41-19 |
| ARIZONA STATE | U c l a |
31-23 |
|
|
||
| Saturday, November 29 | ||
| Favorite | Underdog |
Pred. Score |
| ALABAMA | Auburn |
30-7 |
| TEXAS TECH | Baylor |
52-26 |
| Florida | FLORIDA STATE |
35-21 |
| Oklahoma | OKLAHOMA STATE |
42-35 |
| GEORGIA | Georgia Tech |
37-28 |
| North Carolina | DUKE |
30-24 |
| CINCINNATI | Syracuse |
32-10 |
| WAKE FOREST | Vanderbilt |
17-12 |
| CLEMSON | South Carolina |
28-26 |
| BOSTON COLLEGE | Maryland |
31-21 |
| Miami-Fl | N.C. STATE |
31-28 |
| VIRGINIA TECH | Virginia |
21-12 |
| TENNESSEE | Kentucky |
17-16 |
| Missouri (Kansas City) | Kansas |
42-28 |
| MEMPHIS | Tulane |
37-24 |
| Arkansas State | NORTH TEXAS |
38-21 |
| Nevada | LA. TECH |
38-35 |
| RICE | Houston |
35-34 |
| UTAH STATE | New Mexico St. |
27-22 |
| Southern Miss. | S M U |
34-21 |
| Tulsa | MARSHALL |
40-28 |
| CENTRAL FLORIDA | U a b |
24-14 |
| FLA. ATLANTIC | Fla. International |
38-33 |
| OREGON STATE | Oregon |
31-24 |
| SOUTHERN CAL | Notre Dame |
34-7 |
| HAWAII | Washington State |
42-23 |
Bowl Outlook by Conference
Another week of games have been played, and nothing was really determined bowl-wise. Instead of knowing where some of the teams are headed, the picture is actually more clouded than it was last week. A couple of teams were eliminated from the bowl picture, but we’re talking about UNLV and Illinois. As we enter the Thanksgiving holiday, we only know for sure that Navy is in the inaugural Eagle Bank Bowl. Penn State is all but assured of a spot in the Rose Bowl, but it isn’t official yet.
Teams in all CAPS have already accepted invitations to that bowl.
ACC
Another week, another couple of frontrunners are ripe for upset losses. Miami and Maryland controlled their own destinies last week, but both were blown out. Now Virginia Tech and Boston College have the easiest roads to the title game. If the Eagles beat Maryland in Chestnut Hill this week, they are headed to Atlanta. If Virginia Tech beats Virginia, the Hokies are joining the Eagles.
The overall mediocrity of this league actually could help the ACC get an extra team in the bowl discussion. If North Carolina State beats Miami or Virginia beats Virginia Tech, the league will have 10 bowl eligible teams. Should both the Wolfpack and Cavs win, then 11 of the 12 teams will be bowl eligible.
1. Orange Bowl-Boston College 10-3 vs. Cincinnati
2. Chick-fil-a-North Carolina 9-3 vs. South Carolina
3. Gator-Florida State 8-4 vs. Nebraska
4. Champs Sports-Virginia Tech 8-5 vs. Northwestern
5. Music City-Georgia Tech 8-4 vs. Vanderbilt
6. Meineke Car Care-Miami (Fla) 7-5 vs. West Virginia
7. Eagle Bank-Clemson 7-5 vs. NAVY
8. Emerald-Maryland 7-5 vs. Notre Dame
9. Humanitarian-Wake Forest 7-5 vs. Boise State
10. Texas (at-large)-N.C. State 6-6 vs. Southern Miss.
Big East
Cincinnati is a win away from securing a BCS Bowl bid, and it looks like they would be headed to Miami. Coach Brian Kelly will be very popular Sunday morning if the Bearcats win, and he could be the head coach at a larger school before December 15.
Once Cincinnati wraps up the Orange Bowl berth, the dominoes should begin to fall. I believe the bowls will possibly sacrifice won-loss record for distance. With the economy in shambles, fans may be reluctant to travel great distances and spend a lot of money. Thus, I am picking South Florida to stay at home for their bowl. I am going with West Virginia to stay close to home. I am sending Connecticut north of the border.
With Notre Dame losing to Syracuse, the Irish are no longer in the Gator Bowl picture, and I don’t think the Sun Bowl will be able to select them as the Big East representative because they will finish 6-6 and six Big East teams will win seven or more games.
I have Louisville out of the picture. The Cardinals have been a major disappointment for the second consecutive year. Coach Steve Kragthorpe’s seat is getting hot.
1. Orange-Cincinnati 11-2 vs. Boston College
2. Sun-Pittsburgh 8-4 vs. Arizona
3. St. Petersburg-South Florida 7-5 vs. East Carolina
4. Meineke Car Care-West Virginia 8-4 vs. Miami (Fla)
5. International-Connecticut 8-4 vs. Buffalo
6. Papa John’s-Rutgers 7-5 vs. Middle Tennessee State
Big Ten
Illinois was eliminated from bowl contention last week, but I now have Ohio State slated to miss out on an at-large BCS bowl bid. So, this league will have seven teams for seven bowls.
Even thought Minnesota fell mightily in November, I have the Gophers ahead of Wisconsin because it appears that the Badger fans do not plan on supporting their team en masse this year. In a poll in the Milwaukee paper, a plurality of fans voted their opinion that UW should not even go to a bowl this year.
1. Rose-Penn State 11-1 vs. Oregon State
2. Capital One-Ohio State 10-2 vs. Georgia
3. Outback-Michigan State 9-3 vs. L S U
4. Champs Sports-Northwestern 9-3 vs. Virginia Tech
5. Alamo-Iowa 8-4 vs. Oklahoma State
6. Insight-Minnesota 7-5 vs. Kansas
7. Motor City-Wisconsin 7-5 vs. Ball State
Big 12
Missouri is definitely in the Big 12 Championship Game next week. The other side of the league is still a three-team race. If Oklahoma wins at Oklahoma State, then the Sooners should jump ahead of Texas in the BCS standings, even if the Longhorns beat Texas A&M 56-0. If Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma, then Texas Tech will back in to the title game if they beat Baylor. I think Texas can only get into the Big 12 title game if Texas Tech loses to Baylor. However, the Longhorns still have a chance to make it to the National Championship Game if Missouri beats Oklahoma in the conference title game and Southern Cal doesn’t jump ahead of them.
Colorado still has an outside chance of becoming bowl-eligible. They have to win at Nebraska. I don’t give the Buffs much chance of doing that, and I believe Coach Dan Hawkins is riding down a slippery slope in the Rockies.
The Cornhuskers may cut in line in the bowl pecking order. The Gator Bowl will probably take them ahead of a 10-3 Missouri or 9-3 Oklahoma State team.
1. BCS National Championship-Oklahoma 12-1 vs. Florida
2. Fiesta-Texas 11-1 vs. Southern Cal
3. Cotton-Texas Tech 11-1 vs. Ole Miss
4. Gator-Nebraska 8-4 vs. Florida State
5. Holiday-Missouri 10-3 vs. California
6. Alamo-Oklahoma State 9-3 vs. Iowa
7. Insight-Kansas 6-6 vs. Minnesota
8. Independence-No Qualifying Team
9. Texas-No Qualifying team
C-USA
There is still unfinished business in this conference. East Carolina has won the East Division, but the West is still a three-team race. Tulsa has a tough road game at Marshall, while Houston plays across town at Rice. If Rice and Tulsa finished ties, Tulsa wins. If Tulsa loses to Marshall, the winner of the Rice-Houston game wins. All three will go to bowls.
UTEP and Memphis must win their final games to become bowl-eligible. Memphis has an easy game against lowly Tulane, but UTEP must play at East Carolina. Should the Tigers lose, Coach Tommy West could be in trouble.
1. Liberty-Tulsa 11-2 vs. Kentucky
2. St. Petersburg-East Carolina 8-5 vs. South Florida
3. G M A C-Rice 8-4 vs. Central Michigan
4. Armed Forces-Houston 8-4 vs. Air Force
5. Texas-Southern Miss. 6-6 vs. N.C. State
6. New Orleans-Memphis 6-6 vs. Troy
Independent
Navy is the only team that definitely knows what bowl it will be playing in this year. The Midshipmen have already accepted a bid to the first Eagle Bank Bowl.
Notre Dame will still be invited to a bowl after USC slaughters them to drop them to 6-6. They will be the first 6-6 team invited as an at-large team. Whether they accept the bid is another story, but I’m selecting them here.
1. Emerald (at-large)-Notre Dame 6-6 vs. Maryland
2. Eagle Bank-NAVY 7-5 vs. Clemson
M A C
Ball State has a big home game with Western Michigan Tuesday night. Then, they would have to beat Buffalo in the MAC Championship Game and hope Boise State, Alabama, and Southern Cal all lose just to have a minute chance at getting an at-large bid to a BCS bowl. It looks like the Motor City Bowl is the best they can hope for. I would love to see some arrangement made to pit a 13-0 Ball State team against a 12-0 Boise State team. A lot of deals would have to be made.
Central and Western Michigan should easily receive bowl bids. Buffalo is a virtually guaranteed a bowl as well thanks to them picking up their seventh win last week.
Northern Illinois will become the fifth bowl team if they defeat Navy. Even if they lose, they could still have a shot at 6-6, since their fans travel well.
1. Motor City-Ball State 13-0 vs. Wisconsin
2. International-Buffalo 8-5 vs. Connecticut
3. G M A C-Central Michigan 9-3 vs. Rice
4. Hawaii (at-large)-Western Michigan 9-3 vs. Hawaii
Mountain West
Utah is officially a BCS bowl invitee. It appears that they are headed to the Big Easy to play in the Sugar Bowl.
BYU has been to the Las Vegas Bowl the last three years, and I believe the folks in sin city will invite the Cougars a fourth consecutive time. TCU is still a possibility, but in this time of economic turmoil, I’m guessing it will be a number’s game that comes up craps for the Frogs.
1. Sugar-Utah 12-0 vs. Alabama
2. Las Vegas-B Y U 10-2 vs. Oregon
3. Poinsettia-T C U 10-2 vs. Boise State
4. New Mexico-Colorado State 6-6 vs. Fresno State
5. Armed Forces-Air Force 8-4 vs. Houston
Pac-10
Oregon State won at Arizona, and now the Beavers need to take care of business at home against Oregon. If they win, they head to the Rose Bowl for the first time in more than four decades! They would get a chance to redeem themselves against Penn State.
Southern Cal could still climb up to second in the BCS if Oklahoma and Texas both lose again this season.
Arizona State could still become bowl eligible by beating both UCLA and Arizona. It could happen, but for now I am picking Arizona to end that dream.
1. Rose-Oregon State 9-3 vs. Penn State
2. Fiesta (at-large) Southern Cal 11-1 vs. Texas
3. Holiday-California 8-4 vs. Missouri
4. Sun-Arizona 8-4 vs. Pittsburgh
5. Las Vegas-Oregon 8-4 vs. B Y U
6. Emerald-No qualifying team
6. Poinsettia-No qualifying team
7. Hawaii- No qualifying team
S E C
Florida continues to move farther and farther ahead of the pack in college football. I have the Gators at least a touchdown ahead of any other team.
Alabama is still number one in the official polls. What if the Crimson Tide destroys Auburn and loses to Florida in overtime on a missed two-point conversion? Might we see the same two teams play again for the national title? Could it happen? I think the Gators will take ‘Bama by more than two touchdowns to make it a moot point.
Arkansas was eliminated from the bowl talk last week, and I expect Auburn to go away this week. If Auburn fires Tommy Tuberville, the Tigers deserve to rot into the basement in the SEC West for years. Tuberville is a class act, and he knows how to coach. I don’t think there is a savior out there who can do any better.
Kentucky and Vanderbilt will probably both finish 6-6, and that presents a mismatch problem if Tulsa wins the C-USA title. The Golden Hurricane would be a prohibitive favorite over both teams. Might the Liberty Bowl decide to allow the Independence of Papa John’s Bowl to take one of these 6-6 and then go after an undefeated Ball State team as an at-large opponent? It’s something to consider, but I believe the Wildcats will travel to Memphis. If Rice wins the C-USA title, then Kentucky will definitely be the opponent, since Vandy has already played the Owls.
1. National Championship-Florida 12-1 vs. Oklahoma
2. Sugar-Alabama 12-1 vs. Utah
3. Capital One-Georgia 10-2 vs. Ohio State
4. Outback-L S U 8-4 vs. Michigan State
5. Cotton-Ole Miss 8-4 vs. Texas Tech
6. Chick-fil-a-South Carolina 7-5 vs. North Carolina
7. Music City-Vanderbilt 6-6 vs. Georgia Tech
8. Liberty-Kentucky 6-6 vs. Tulsa
9. Independence-No qualifying team
10. Papa John’s-No qualifying team
Sunbelt
Troy has all but wrapped up the New Orleans Bowl berth. It looks highly likely that no other SBC team will finish 7-5, but as many as three will finish 6-6. Because I see at least four and possibly five 6-6 teams being required to fill out the at-large spots, two at-large bids could go to this league.
The Sunbelt has side bets with three other bowls, and two of them will be needing to find alternative invitees. So, I am going with the two teams I believe will travel the best here.
1. New Orleans-Troy 8-4 vs. Memphis
2. Independence (at-large) Arkansas State 6-6 vs. La. Tech
3. Papa John’s (at-large) Middle Tennessee 6-6 vs. Rutgers
W A C
Boise State should take care of business against Fresno State this week and finish the regular season at 12-0. They won’t get a sniff at an at-large BCS bowl bid. Their only hope is if Oregon State loses to Oregon, Oklahoma loses to Oklahoma State, Texas loses to Texas A&M, and Texas Tech loses to Baylor (or if Missouri wins the Big 12 title).
The WAC has a provisional agreement with the Poinsettia Bowl should the Pac-10 not have a team available. They won’t this year, and that could allow Boise State to go there. Economics may trump this theory as the Humanitarian Bowl will want the Broncos to stay home. For now, I am selecting Boise to head south and west to play a better opponent than they would face on the blue field.
San Jose State looks like the odd man out this year, unless the Poinsettia Bowl would prefer them to Boise State. Then, Nevada might be the odd man out. If the Wolf Pack take care of business this week at Louisiana Tech, then they will take a bid away from a 6-6 team.
1. Poinsettia (at-large) Boise State 12-0 vs. T C U
2. Humanitarian-Nevada 6-6 vs. Wake Forest
3. New Mexico-Fresno State 7-5 vs. Colorado State
4. Hawaii-Hawaii 7-6 vs. Western Michigan
5. Independence (at-large)-La. Tech 8-4 vs. Arkansas St.
The Pi-Rate Ratings 