NCAA Week 12: BCS Could Be On Verge Of Getting Quite Muddled
Bye Bye Penn State. Alabama just barely survived in the Bayou. Florida and Southern Cal showed they are the two best teams in the nation, but it’s going to take a few more losses at the top before that match-up has any chance of ever occurring.
Last week’s games really threw a monkey wrench into the lower bowls. There is a good chance now that at least six bowls will have to look for at-large teams because the conferences that have agreements with these bowls will not have enough bowl eligible teams. Read below in my bowl section to see the ensuing problems.
The PiRate Top 25 is different from the polls. I do not rank the teams based on what they have done to date. These teams are rated on how I think they will perform in the future (predictive ratings).
| NCAA Top 25 For 11-Nov-2008 | ||||
| Rank | Team | PiRate | Won | Lost |
| 1 | Florida | 135 | 8 | 1 |
| 2 | Southern Cal | 132 | 8 | 1 |
| 3 | Texas Tech | 127 | 10 | 0 |
| 4 | Oklahoma | 127 | 9 | 1 |
| 5 | Texas | 126 | 9 | 1 |
| 6 | Ohio St. | 126 | 8 | 2 |
| 7 | Penn St. | 124 | 9 | 1 |
| 8 | Missouri | 121 | 8 | 2 |
| 9 | Alabama | 120 | 10 | 0 |
| 10 | Georgia | 120 | 8 | 2 |
| 11 | Oklahoma St. | 117 | 8 | 2 |
| 12 | T C U | 117 | 9 | 2 |
| 13 | Boise State | 116 | 9 | 0 |
| 14 | Oregon State | 116 | 6 | 3 |
| 15 | South Carolina | 115 | 7 | 3 |
| 16 | Utah | 114 | 10 | 0 |
| 17 | Ball State | 114 | 9 | 0 |
| 18 | Oregon | 114 | 7 | 3 |
| 19 | California | 114 | 6 | 3 |
| 20 | L S U | 113 | 6 | 3 |
| 21 | Iowa | 112 | 6 | 4 |
| 22 | Arizona | 112 | 6 | 3 |
| 23 | West Virginia | 112 | 6 | 3 |
| 24 | Cincinnati | 111 | 7 | 2 |
| 25 | Florida State | 111 | 7 | 2 |
| Note: Ratings rounded to nearest whole number | ||||
| even though I rank them to two decimal points | ||||
PiRate Ratings By Conference
| Atlantic Coast Conference | |||||
| Atlantic Division | |||||
| Team | Conf. | Overall | Rating | Off | Def |
| Florida State | 4-2 | 7-2 | 111 | 70 | 41 |
| Clemson | 2-4 | 4-5 | 107 | 65 | 42 |
| Boston College | 2-3 | 6-3 | 105 | 64 | 41 |
| Maryland | 3-2 | 6-3 | 104 | 64 | 40 |
| Wake Forest | 4-2 | 6-3 | 103 | 56 | 47 |
| North Carolina State | 1-4 | 3-6 | 98 | 66 | 32 |
| Coastal Division | |||||
| Team | Conf. | Overall | Rating | Off | Def |
| North Carolina | 3-2 | 7-2 | 110 | 69 | 41 |
| Virginia Tech | 3-2 | 6-3 | 108 | 67 | 41 |
| Miami | 3-2 | 6-3 | 104 | 61 | 43 |
| Georgia Tech | 4-3 | 7-3 | 102 | 62 | 40 |
| Virginia | 3-3 | 5-5 | 101 | 59 | 42 |
| Duke | 1-4 | 4-5 | 94 | 61 | 33 |
| Big East Conference | |||||
| Team | Conf. | Overall | Rating | Off | Def |
| West Virginia | 3-1 | 6-3 | 112 | 67 | 45 |
| Cincinnati | 3-1 | 7-2 | 111 | 65 | 46 |
| South Florida | 1-3 | 6-3 | 109 | 69 | 40 |
| Rutgers | 3-2 | 4-5 | 108 | 65 | 43 |
| Pittsburgh | 3-1 | 7-2 | 108 | 65 | 43 |
| Connecticut | 2-2 | 6-3 | 103 | 64 | 39 |
| Louisville | 1-3 | 5-4 | 96 | 59 | 37 |
| Syracuse | 1-4 | 2-7 | 88 | 55 | 33 |
| Big Ten | |||||
| Team | Conf. | Overall | Rating | Off | Def |
| Ohio State | 5-1 | 8-2 | 126 | 70 | 56 |
| Penn State | 5-1 | 9-1 | 124 | 75 | 49 |
| Iowa | 3-3 | 6-4 | 112 | 70 | 42 |
| Wisconsin | 2-5 | 5-5 | 110 | 71 | 39 |
| Michigan State | 6-1 | 9-2 | 106 | 64 | 42 |
| Illinois | 3-3 | 5-5 | 106 | 67 | 39 |
| Michigan | 2-4 | 3-7 | 100 | 60 | 40 |
| Northwestern | 3-3 | 7-3 | 99 | 62 | 37 |
| Minnesota | 3-3 | 7-3 | 97 | 61 | 36 |
| Purdue | 1-5 | 3-7 | 97 | 63 | 34 |
| Indiana | 1-5 | 3-7 | 85 | 57 | 28 |
| Big 12 | |||||
| North Division | |||||
| Team | Conf. | Overall | Rating | Off | Def |
| Missouri | 4-2 | 8-2 | 121 | 75 | 46 |
| Kansas | 3-3 | 6-4 | 108 | 67 | 41 |
| Nebraska | 3-3 | 6-4 | 106 | 68 | 38 |
| Kansas State | 1-5 | 4-6 | 97 | 68 | 29 |
| Colorado | 2-4 | 5-5 | 93 | 56 | 37 |
| Iowa State | 0-6 | 2-8 | 85 | 57 | 28 |
| South Division | |||||
| Team | Conf. | Overall | Rating | Off | Def |
| Texas Tech | 6-0 | 10-0 | 127 | 86 | 41 |
| Oklahoma | 5-1 | 9-1 | 127 | 86 | 41 |
| Texas | 5-1 | 9-1 | 126 | 81 | 45 |
| Oklahoma State | 4-2 | 8-2 | 117 | 71 | 46 |
| Baylor | 1-5 | 3-7 | 102 | 65 | 37 |
| Texas A&M | 2-4 | 4-6 | 92 | 57 | 35 |
| Conference USA | |||||
| East Division | |||||
| Team | Conf. | Overall | Rating | Off | Def |
| East Carolina | 4-1 | 6-3 | 97 | 62 | 35 |
| Southern Miss. | 2-4 | 4-6 | 95 | 64 | 31 |
| Marshall | 3-2 | 4-5 | 94 | 59 | 35 |
| Memphis | 3-3 | 5-5 | 90 | 60 | 30 |
| Central Florida | 1-4 | 2-7 | 87 | 48 | 39 |
| U A B | 1-4 | 2-7 | 79 | 51 | 28 |
| West Division | |||||
| Team | Conf. | Overall | Rating | Off | Def |
| Tulsa | 5-0 | 8-1 | 106 | 72 | 34 |
| Houston | 4-1 | 5-4 | 95 | 63 | 32 |
| Rice | 5-1 | 7-3 | 91 | 62 | 29 |
| U T E P | 3-2 | 4-5 | 87 | 59 | 28 |
| S M U | 0-6 | 1-9 | 81 | 59 | 22 |
| Tulane | 1-4 | 2-7 | 79 | 53 | 26 |
| Independents | |||||
| Team | Overall | Rating | Off | Def | |
| Notre Dame | 5-4 | 103 | 61 | 42 | |
| Navy | 6-3 | 97 | 60 | 37 | |
| Army | 3-7 | 86 | 49 | 37 | |
| Mid American Conference | |||||
| East Division | |||||
| Team | Conf. | Overall | Rating | Off | Def |
| Bowling Green | 3-3 | 5-5 | 99 | 66 | 33 |
| Buffalo | 3-2 | 5-4 | 98 | 65 | 33 |
| Temple | 2-3 | 3-6 | 96 | 56 | 40 |
| Akron | 3-2 | 5-4 | 93 | 62 | 31 |
| Kent State | 1-4 | 2-7 | 89 | 58 | 31 |
| Ohio U | 1-5 | 2-8 | 87 | 48 | 39 |
| Miami (O) | 1-4 | 2-7 | 86 | 57 | 29 |
| West Division | |||||
| Team | Conf. | Overall | Rating | Off | Def |
| Ball State | 5-0 | 9-0 | 114 | 74 | 40 |
| Western Michigan | 5-1 | 8-2 | 102 | 64 | 38 |
| Central Michigan | 5-0 | 7-2 | 98 | 66 | 32 |
| Northern Illinois | 4-2 | 5-4 | 98 | 60 | 38 |
| Toledo | 1-4 | 2-7 | 86 | 56 | 30 |
| Eastern Michigan | 1-5 | 2-8 | 83 | 52 | 31 |
| Mountain West Conference | |||||
| Team | Conf. | Overall | Rating | Off | Def |
| T C U | 6-1 | 9-2 | 117 | 66 | 51 |
| Utah | 6-0 | 10-0 | 114 | 68 | 46 |
| Brigham Young | 5-1 | 9-1 | 106 | 66 | 40 |
| Air Force | 5-1 | 8-2 | 99 | 60 | 39 |
| New Mexico | 2-5 | 4-7 | 96 | 59 | 37 |
| UNLV | 1-5 | 4-6 | 90 | 59 | 31 |
| Colorado State | 2-4 | 4-6 | 89 | 58 | 31 |
| Wyoming | 1-5 | 4-6 | 88 | 53 | 35 |
| San Diego State | 0-6 | 1-9 | 72 | 47 | 25 |
| Pac-10 Conference | |||||
| Team | Conf. | Overall | Rating | Off | Def |
| Southern Cal | 6-1 | 8-1 | 132 | 73 | 59 |
| Oregon State | 5-1 | 6-3 | 116 | 74 | 42 |
| Oregon | 5-2 | 7-3 | 114 | 71 | 43 |
| California | 4-2 | 6-3 | 114 | 72 | 42 |
| Arizona | 4-2 | 6-3 | 112 | 73 | 39 |
| Stanford | 4-3 | 5-5 | 108 | 65 | 43 |
| Arizona State | 2-4 | 3-6 | 105 | 64 | 41 |
| U C L A | 2-4 | 3-6 | 98 | 56 | 42 |
| Washington | 0-6 | 0-9 | 87 | 57 | 30 |
| Washington State | 0-7 | 1-9 | 71 | 48 | 23 |
| Southeastern Conference | |||||
| East Division | |||||
| Team | Conf. | Overall | Rating | Off | Def |
| Florida | 6-1 | 8-1 | 135 | 84 | 51 |
| Georgia | 5-2 | 8-2 | 120 | 74 | 46 |
| South Carolina | 4-3 | 7-3 | 115 | 67 | 48 |
| Kentucky | 2-4 | 6-4 | 106 | 63 | 43 |
| Vanderbilt | 3-3 | 5-4 | 104 | 58 | 46 |
| Tennessee | 1-5 | 3-7 | 101 | 59 | 42 |
| West Division | |||||
| Team | Conf. | Overall | Rating | Off | Def |
| Alabama | 6-0 | 10-0 | 120 | 68 | 52 |
| L S U | 3-3 | 6-3 | 113 | 71 | 42 |
| Ole Miss | 3-3 | 5-4 | 110 | 67 | 43 |
| Auburn | 2-4 | 5-5 | 105 | 58 | 47 |
| Mississippi State | 1-4 | 3-6 | 102 | 57 | 45 |
| Arkansas | 1-5 | 4-6 | 101 | 67 | 34 |
| Sunbelt Conference | |||||
| Team | Conf. | Overall | Rating | Off | Def |
| Troy | 4-1 | 6-3 | 97 | 64 | 33 |
| Louisiana-Lafayette | 4-0 | 5-4 | 93 | 67 | 26 |
| Florida Atlantic | 2-2 | 4-5 | 93 | 62 | 31 |
| Arkansas State | 2-2 | 4-5 | 89 | 59 | 30 |
| Middle Tennessee | 2-3 | 3-6 | 88 | 56 | 32 |
| Louisiana-Monroe | 2-4 | 3-7 | 88 | 57 | 31 |
| Florida International | 3-2 | 4-5 | 86 | 56 | 30 |
| * Western Kentucky | 0-0 | 2-8 | 83 | 52 | 31 |
| North Texas | 0-5 | 1-9 | 70 | 54 | 16 |
| * Western Kentucky will become eligible in 2009 | |||||
| Their games will not count in the SBC Standings in 2008 | |||||
| Western Athletic Conference | |||||
| Team | Conf. | Overall | Rating | Off | Def |
| Boise State | 5-0 | 9-0 | 116 | 72 | 44 |
| Fresno State | 2-3 | 5-4 | 92 | 64 | 28 |
| Nevada | 3-2 | 5-4 | 99 | 71 | 28 |
| San Jose State | 4-2 | 6-4 | 89 | 54 | 35 |
| Louisiana Tech | 3-2 | 5-4 | 96 | 56 | 40 |
| Hawaii | 4-3 | 5-5 | 90 | 54 | 36 |
| Utah State | 2-4 | 2-8 | 87 | 54 | 33 |
| New Mexico State | 1-4 | 3-6 | 77 | 50 | 27 |
| Idaho | 1-5 | 2-8 | 75 | 58 | 17 |
| This Week’s Games–PiRate Ratings | |||
| Home Team in CAPS | (N) Denotes Neutral Site | ||
| Tuesday, November 11 | |||
| Favorite | Underdog | Pred. Spread | Approx. Score |
| Ball State | MIAMI (O) | 25 | 45-20 |
| Wednesday, November 12 | |||
| Favorite | Underdog | Pred. Spread | Approx. Score |
| Temple | KENT STATE | 4 | 24-20 |
| NORTHERN ILLINOIS | Central Michigan | 3 | 30-27 |
| Thursday, November 13 | |||
| Favorite | Underdog | Pred. Spread | Approx. Score |
| Buffalo | AKRON | 2 | 33-31 |
| Va. Tech | MIAMI-FL | 1 | 22-21 |
| UNLV | Wyoming | 5 | 26-21 |
| Friday, November 14 | |||
| Favorite | Underdog | Pred. Spread | Approx. Score |
| Cincinnati | LOUISVILLE | 12 | 26-14 |
| Saturday, November 15 | |||
| Favorite | Underdog | Pred. Spread | Approx. Score |
| PENN STATE | Indiana | 42 | 49-7 |
| Ohio State | ILLINOIS | 17 | 30-13 |
| SOUTH FLORIDA | Rutgers | 4 | 27-23 |
| MICHIGAN | Northwestern | 4 | 24-20 |
| CLEMSON | Duke | 16 | 33-17 |
| Notre Dame | NAVY (Baltimore) | 4 | 24-20 |
| IOWA | Purdue | 18 | 38-20 |
| Texas | KANSAS | 15 | 40-25 |
| Georgia | AUBURN | 12 | 24-12 |
| Middle Tennessee | WESTERN KENTUCKY | 2 | 23-21 |
| New Mexico | COLORADO STATE | 4 | 27-23 |
| OLE MISS | Louisiana-Monroe | 25 | 38-13 |
| WESTERN MICHIGAN | Toledo | 19 | 35-16 |
| LOUISIANA TECH | Utah State | 12 | 24-12 |
| SOUTHERN MISS. | East Carolina | 1 | 31-30 |
| TULANE | U a b | 3 | 27-24 |
| FLORIDA | South Carolina | 23 | 37-14 |
| North Carolina | MARYLAND | 3 | 27-24 |
| B y u | AIR FORCE | 4 | 27-23 |
| Wake Forest | N.C. STATE | 2 | 22-20 |
| OREGON STATE | California | 5 | 33-28 |
| WISCONSIN | Minnesota | 16 | 37-21 |
| OREGON | Arizona | 5 | 34-29 |
| Nebraska | KANSAS STATE | 6 | 37-31 |
| FLORIDA ATLANTIC | Louisiana-Lafayette | 3 | 38-35 |
| BAYLOR | Texas A&M | 13 | 31-18 |
| NEVADA | San Jose State | 13 | 37-24 |
| MARSHALL | Central Florida | 10 | 20-10 |
| Boise State | IDAHO | 38 | 52-14 |
| FRESNO STATE | New Mexico State | 18 | 38-20 |
| ARIZONA STATE | Washington State | 37 | 44-7 |
| Missouri | IOWA STATE | 33 | 45-12 |
| Southern Cal | STANFORD | 21 | 28-7 |
| Connecticut | SYRACUSE | 12 | 28-16 |
| ALABAMA | Mississippi State | 22 | 35-13 |
| Utah | SAN DIEGO STATE | 39 | 42-3 |
| Oklahoma State | COLORADO | 21 | 34-13 |
| FLORIDA STATE | Boston College | 9 | 30-21 |
| L S U | Troy | 19 | 38-19 |
| Tulsa | HOUSTON | 8 | 38-30 |
| KENTUCKY | Vanderbilt | 5 | 17-12 |
| U T E P | S m u | 9 | 37-28 |
| U c l a | WASHINGTON | 8 | 25-17 |
| This Week’s Games–Mean Ratings | ||
| Home Team in CAPS | (N) Denotes Neutral Site | |
| Tuesday, November 11 | ||
| Favorite | Underdog | Predicted Score |
| Ball State | MIAMI (O) | 37-14 |
| Wednesday, November 12 | ||
| Favorite | Underdog | Predicted Score |
| Temple | KENT STATE | 28-23 |
| NORTHERN ILLINOIS | Central Michigan | 24-23 |
| Thursday, November 13 | ||
| Favorite | Underdog | Predicted Score |
| AKRON | Buffalo | 28-27 |
| MIAMI-FL | Virginia Tech | 24-20 |
| UNLV | Wyoming | 28-20 |
| Friday, November 14 | ||
| Favorite | Underdog | Predicted Score |
| Cincinnati | LOUISVILLE | 24-17 |
| Saturday, November 15 | ||
| Favorite | Underdog | Predicted Score |
| PENN STATE | Indiana | 41-7 |
| Ohio State | ILLINOIS | 23-14 |
| SOUTH FLORIDA | Rutgers | 27-19 |
| Northwestern | MICHIGAN | 31-26 |
| CLEMSON | Duke | 28-23 |
| NAVY | Notre Dame | 27-26 |
| IOWA | Purdue | 28-13 |
| Texas | KANSAS | 40-27 |
| Georgia | AUBURN | 20-10 |
| Middle Tennessee | WESTERN KENTUCKY | 16-14 |
| New Mexico | COLORADO STATE | 24-23 |
| OLE MISS | Louisiana-Monroe | 38-14 |
| WESTERN MICHIGAN | Toledo | 35-19 |
| LOUISIANA TECH | Utah State | 31-21 |
| East Carolina | SOUTHERN MISS. | 24-24 to ot |
| TULANE | U a b | 30-24 |
| FLORIDA | South Carolina | 41-21 |
| North Carolina | MARYLAND | 21-16 |
| B y u | AIR FORCE | 27-27 to ot |
| Wake Forest | N.C. STATE | 24-16 |
| OREGON STATE | California | 31-27 |
| WISCONSIN | Minnesota | 38-33 |
| OREGON | Arizona | 30-26 |
| KANSAS STATE | Nebraska | 37-31 |
| FLORIDA ATLANTIC | Louisiana-Lafayette | 24-23 |
| BAYLOR | Texas A&M | 34-28 |
| NEVADA | San Jose State | 31-23 |
| MARSHALL | Central Florida | 21-13 |
| Boise State | IDAHO | 44-10 |
| FRESNO STATE | New Mexico State | 40-27 |
| ARIZONA STATE | Washington State | 45-21 |
| Missouri | IOWA STATE | 40-14 |
| Southern Cal | STANFORD | 23-3 |
| Connecticut | SYRACUSE | 28-16 |
| ALABAMA | Mississippi State | 35-7 |
| Utah | SAN DIEGO STATE | 35-3 |
| Oklahoma State | COLORADO | 38-23 |
| FLORIDA STATE | Boston College | 28-20 |
| L S U | Troy | 31-17 |
| Tulsa | HOUSTON | 42-35 |
| KENTUCKY | Vanderbilt | 14-10 |
| U T E P | S m u | 40-27 |
| U c l a | WASHINGTON | 26-21 |
Bowl Outlook by Conference
As I mentioned above, this is becoming a mess. Let’s take a look at the possible problems facing the bowls that must rely on conferences to produce seven to nine bowl eligible teams. A half-dozen bowls and maybe more could be forced to find at-large teams.
Teams in all CAPS have already accepted invitations to that bowl.
ACC
North Carolina State, Virginia, Clemson, and Duke are on the verge of elimination, and I believe three of the four will fail to get to six wins. The ACC has nine tie-ins, and it looks like they will just barely have nine bowl-eligible schools. The Clemson-Virginia game at Charlottesville on November 22 will be a bowl elimination game.
1. Orange Bowl-North Carolina 11-2 vs. Cincinnati
2. Chick-fil-a-Virginia Tech 8-4 vs. Kentucky
3. Gator-Florida State 8-4 vs. Missouri
4. Champs Sports-Wake Forest 9-4 vs. Northwestern
5. Music City-Miami 8-4 vs. Ole Miss
6. Meineke Car Care-Georgia Tech 8-4 vs. West Virginia
7. Eagle Bank-Maryland 7-5 vs. NAVY
8. Emerald-Boston College 7-5 vs. Arizona
9. Humanitarian-Virginia 6-6 vs. San Jose State
Big East
Another week, another leader in the pack for the Big East-Cincinnati is the new team on top. The Bearcats won at West Virginia, and wins over Louisville this Friday and Pittsburgh the following week will sew up the Big East title. They could lose either or both games, but for now, I have them penciled in as the champion.
With Notre Dame’s consecutive losses and almost assured to lose to Southern Cal, I have removed the Irish from the Big East equation. However, they will certainly grab an at-large bid from the first bowl that loses a tie-in.
I have Rutgers as the sole 6-6 team getting an at-large bowl bid. Should someone like Temple or Akron finish 7-5, they will take the at-large bid away.
1. Orange-Cincinnati 10-3 vs. North Carolina
2. Sun-Pittsburgh 9-3 vs. Oregon State
3. St. Petersburg-South Florida 8-4 vs. East Carolina
4. Meineke Car Care-West Virginia 7-5 vs. Georgia Tech
5. International-Connecticut 7-5 vs. Central Michigan
6. Papa John’s-Louisville 6-6 vs. Florida Atlantic
7. Hawaii (at-large)-Rutgers 6-6
Big Ten
Penn State’s loss has virtually relegated the Nittany Lions to the Rose Bowl. Should Michigan State beat them, then Ohio State can back into Pasadena for a possible rematch with Southern Cal. Illinois lost to Western Michigan, and now the Illini must beat either Ohio State or Northwestern to gain eligibility. For now, I have them out of the bowl picture, and that means the Big 10 will likely fall one team short of its obligations. That means the Motor City Bowl will need to search for a substitute. Notre Dame would fit in perfectly here, but if Ball State runs the table and finishes 13-0, it could present a special situation for the Motor City Bowl to make a deal with the WAC and take a 12-0 Boise State team for a dream match.
Minnesota’s loss to Michigan opens the door for another team to sneak into a New Year’s Bowl, but for now I have the Gophers still there.
1. Rose-Penn State 11-1 vs. Southern Cal
2. Fiesta-Ohio State 10-2 vs. Texas
3. Capital One-Michigan State 9-3 vs. Georgia
4. Outback-Minnesota 8-4 vs. South Carolina
5. Champs Sports-Northwestern 8-4 vs. Wake Forest
6. Alamo-Iowa 7-5 vs. Nebraska
7. Insight-Wisconsin 7-5 vs. Kansas
8. Motor City-No Team Available
Big 12
Texas Tech looked like a championship team against Oklahoma State, but I think they will find it difficult to win at Oklahoma. If the Sooners beat the Red Raiders, they will then have to beat Oklahoma State in Stillwater in order to finish in a three-way tie in the Big 12 South. If they win both games, they should finish with the highest BCS rating among the trio and acquire the bid to the Big 12 Championship Game. I have them doing just that. Now, here is where I think the evils of money will win out over what is just. At 11-1, Texas Tech would deserve an at-large BCS Bowl bid over 11-1 Texas, but I am sure greed would win out. Texas would get that bid.
Colorado and Kansas State still have much work to do to gain bowl eligibility. I think the Buffaloes will miss out, and it could mean big trouble for Coach Dan Hawkins in Boulder. Kansas State has a decent chance to upset Nebraska and knock off Iowa State to sneak in at 6-6. If they lose to the Cornhuskers, then the Big 12 will fall two teams short in their allotments.
1. BCS National Championship-Oklahoma 12-1 vs. Florida
2. Fiesta-Texas 11-1 vs. Ohio State
3. Cotton-Texas Tech 11-1 vs. LSU
4. Gator-Missouri 10-3 vs. Florida State
5. Holiday-Oklahoma State 9-3 vs. California
6. Alamo-Nebraska 7-5 vs. Iowa
7. Insight-Kansas 6-6 vs. Wisconsin
8. Independence-Kansas State 6-6 vs. Louisiana Tech
9. Texas-No Qualifying team
C-USA
This is a big week in the C-USA, as both divisions have key showdowns that will go a long way in determining their representatives in the conference title game. Houston hosts Tulsa, and should the Cougars win, the West Division will be tied three ways between these two and Rice. Houston concludes the season at Rice. Tulsa holds the tiebreaker over Rice, and Houston would hold the tiebreaker over Tulsa if they beat the Golden Hurricane.
In the East, East Carolina visits Southern Mississippi. If the Pirates win, they are in the title game. Marshall still has an outside chance to win this division, but I believe the Thundering Herd will lose at least two more games and fail to gain bowl eligibility.
After a start that looked like it would cost Tommy West his job, his Memphis team is the hottest squad in the East Division. I look for the Tigers to win out and earn their fifth bowl game in six years.
Southern Mississippi must defeat ECU and SMU to get to six wins; for now, I have them doing that, but it is quite a tenuous supposition. Chances are about 60% that the New Orleans Bowl will have to find an at-large team.
1. Liberty-Tulsa 11-2 vs. Vanderbilt
2. St. Petersburg-East Carolina 8-5 vs. South Florida
3. G M A C-Rice 9-3 vs. Western Michigan
4. Armed Forces-Houston 7-5 vs. U N L V
5. Texas-Memphis 7-5 vs. Buffalo
6. New Orleans-Southern Miss. 6-6 vs. Troy
Independent
The one sure thing is that Navy is headed to the first Eagle Bank Bowl in Washington, D.C. Notre Dame should be bowl eligible, and at 7-5 they will definitely be invited to fill an at-large spot. They could still steal the Sun Bowl bid from the Big East, but I believe there will be more deserving teams to go to El Paso.
1. Sun-Notre Dame 7-5 vs. Arizona
2. Eagle Bank-NAVY 7-5 vs. Wake Forest
M A C
Here is where the bowl situation becomes a bloody mess. Let’s start with the possibility that Ball State could finish 13-0 and in the top 15 and not qualify for an at-large BCS Bowl. At 13-0, it would be terrible for the Cardinals to face a 6-6 Big 10 team or some at-large team that barely qualified at 7-5. I believe an excellent situation would be available if both Boise State and Ball State finished undefeated. A deal could be struck for the two teams to play, leaving a western bowl with two more evenly-matched teams. Should Utah lose to BYU, then Ball State would still need a Boise State loss to back into a possible Sugar Bowl bid.
Since it is silly to try to predict a back room deal, I am leaving the bowl tie-ins alone for now, but with the above caveat in place.
As for the rest of the league, this is getting very interesting. The MAC finishes the season with November games on Tuesdays, Wednesdays, and Thursdays. Last week, the nation saw Ball State destroy a good Northern Illinois team. Tonight (Tuesday), the Cardinals should blow Miami of Ohio off the field. Three more key conference games tomorrow and Thursday could play important roles in determining bowl bids. Akron and Buffalo hook up in the Rubber Bowl, where the winner takes a commanding lead in the East. Temple goes to Kent State, where an Owl win puts them in position to challenge for a piece of the division title. Northern Illinois and Central Michigan play Wednesday in Dekalb, and if the Chippewas win on the road, they may be a major obstacle for Ball State the following Wednesday.
1. Motor City-Ball State 13-0 vs. Notre Dame (Boise State?)
2. International-Central Michigan 9-3 vs. Connecticut
3. G M A C-Western Michigan 9-3 vs. Rice
4. Poinsettia (at-large)-Northern Illinois 7-5 vs. BYU
5. Texas (at-large)-Buffalo 7-6 vs. Memphis
Mountain West
Utah’s come-from-behind win over TCU has them firmly holding onto the at-large BCS Bowl bid. A win over a weakening BYU team will clinch it. That means, the MWC will get an extra bowl bid, and there will be an available team. That team will be the one that finishes 6-6 from among UNLV, Wyoming, and Colorado State. Wyoming plays the other two to finish out the season, while UNLV also plays San Diego State and Colorado State also plays New Mexico. The Rebels have the easiest path to 6-6.
See the WAC for an explanation of the New Mexico.
1. Sugar-Utah 12-0 vs. Alabama
2. Las Vegas-TCU 10-2 vs. Oregon
3. Poinsettia-BYU 9-3 vs. Northern Illinois
4. New Mexico-Air Force 9-3 vs. Boise State (Notre Dame?)
5. Armed Forces-UNLV 6-6 vs. Houston
Pac-10
Oregon State still controls its own destiny in the Pac-10. If the Beavers beat California, Arizona, and Oregon, they are in the Rose Bowl no matter what USC does in their games. An Oregon State-Penn State rematch would not be all that exciting. I think OSU will lose one of those final three, and USC will win out.
Stanford must upset either USC or Cal to gain bowl eligibility, and I don’t believe they can do that. UCLA will most certainly not win out, so the Bruins will not get to six wins. Arizona State has a remote chance of winning out to finish 6-6, but for now I have them finishing 5-7. That means the Pac-10 will fall two teams shy of their bowl allotments.
1. Rose-Southern Cal 11-1 vs. Penn State
2. Holiday-California 8-4 vs. Oklahoma State
3. Sun-Oregon State 8-4 vs. Pittsburgh
4. Las Vegas-Oregon 8-4 vs. TCU
5. Emerald-Arizona 8-4 vs. Boston College
6. Poinsettia-No qualifying team
7. Hawaii- No qualifying team
S E C
Has there ever been a more dominant one-loss team in college football than the 2008 Florida Gators? I can only compare them to a few past teams, mostly from six decades past. In 1943, a 9-1 Notre Dame team easily destroyed eight of their opponents before surviving against one military all-star team and losing late to another. Of course, the Irish were so dominant then with help of WWII. I liken this Florida team to the 1968 UCLA Bruin basketball team. UCLA lost by two points on the road to the best team since 1956 not coached by John Wooden. They lost with Lew Alcindor (Kareem Abdul Jabbar) still hampered by an eye injury. When the Bruins faced Houston in the Final Four, they led by over 40 points with eight minutes remaining before Coach Wooden emptied the bench. Now Florida did not lose on the road at Alabama, Texas Tech, or USC. Tim Tebow was not recovering from an injury at the time the Gators lost at home to Ole Miss. However, this is SEC football. Any SEC team that is headed to a bowl is by definition one of the best in the nation. We all know the Gators would beat Ole Miss by five touchdowns in a rematch. I think Florida today can beat any college team by two touchdowns or more, with the exception of Southern Cal, and they would beat them by 7-10 points.
Alabama is still unbeaten and ranked number one. The Tide should reach the SEC Championship Game at 12-0, but I’m willing to wager that an 11-1 Florida team will be favored by the wise guys in Las Vegas, who know who is the best team in the nation. Penn State’s losing last week crushed the hopes of the Rose Bowl to get the Tide out to Pasadena. If Southern Cal could move into the top spot, then a 12-1 Bama team could still make it west for the first time since January of 1946. Fat Chance!
The SEC is going to fall at least two teams short in meeting their bowl obligations. Tennessee was eliminated last week. Auburn would have to beat either Georgia or Alabama, and that won’t happen. Mississippi State would have to beat Alabama, Arkansas, and Ole Miss, and there’s no chance. Arkansas might beat Mississippi State, but they won’t defeat LSU and will finish under .500. Vanderbilt still needs one win and has Kentucky, Tennessee, and Wake Forest left. For now, I am calling the Tennessee game a win, but I am not confident about that. They could easily finish 5-7 after starting 5-0 and really put daggers in the hearts of their fans.
1. National Championship-Florida 12-1 vs. Oklahoma
2. Sugar-Alabama 12-1 vs. Utah
3. Capital One-Georgia 10-2 vs. Michigan State
4. Outback-South Carolina 8-4 vs. Minnesota
5. Cotton-L S U 9-3 vs. Texas Tech
6. Chick-fil-a-Kentucky 7-5 vs. Virginia Tech
7. Music City-Ole Miss 7-5 vs. Miami
8. Liberty-Vanderbilt 6-6 vs. Tulsa
9. Independence-No qualifying team
10. Papa John’s-No qualifying team
Sunbelt
Troy is still in command here, but the Trojans have a tough game remaining against Louisiana-Lafayette. Troy would have gotten an extra week to prepare for this game, but their game with LSU had to be rescheduled after the September hurricane. The ULL game is in Troy, so I still have the Trojans penciled in darkly as probable SBC champs.
With all the at-large possibilities, chances are quite strong that a second team will get a bowl bid. There is even a slim chance that a third team could earn one too.
1. New Orleans-Troy 8-4 vs. Southern Miss.
2. Papa John’s (at-large)-Florida Atlantic 7-5 vs. Louisville
W A C
Boise State should finish 12-0, and they should finish in the top 10. Unless Utah loses, the Broncos will be left out in the cold when the BCS doles out its big bowl bids. Personally, I would love to see a Utah-Boise State Fiesta Bowl or even Cotton Bowl, but that isn’t going to happen. What could happen is a deal for Boise State to be released from their WAC bowl alliance to face Ball State if both are unbeaten.
San Jose State is the only other WAC team that has secured bowl eligibility, and there are four other teams vying for the remaining two bowls. I believe three will get to seven wins, and one of the trio will get an at-large invitation.
1. New Mexico-Boise State 12-0 vs. Air Force
(Boise State could swap with Notre Dame and face a 13-0 Ball State team. I am sure the New Mexico Bowl would gladly take Notre Dame.)
2. Humanitarian-San Jose State 7-5 vs. Virginia
3. Hawaii-Hawaii 7-6 vs. Rutgers
4. Independence (at-large)-Louisiana Tech 8-4 vs. Kansas St.
