PiRate Ratings For College Football: Week Of November 11-15, 2008

NCAA Week 12: BCS Could Be On Verge Of Getting Quite Muddled

 

Bye Bye Penn State.  Alabama just barely survived in the Bayou.  Florida and Southern Cal showed they are the two best teams in the nation, but it’s going to take a few more losses at the top before that match-up has any chance of ever occurring.

 

Last week’s games really threw a monkey wrench into the lower bowls.  There is a good chance now that at least six bowls will have to look for at-large teams because the conferences that have agreements with these bowls will not have enough bowl eligible teams.  Read below in my bowl section to see the ensuing problems.

 

The PiRate Top 25 is different from the polls.  I do not rank the teams based on what they have done to date.  These teams are rated on how I think they will perform in the future (predictive ratings).

 

NCAA Top 25 For 11-Nov-2008
Rank	Team	PiRate	Won	Lost
1	Florida	135	8	1
2	Southern Cal	132	8	1
3	Texas Tech	127	10	0
4	Oklahoma	127	9	1
5	Texas	126	9	1
6	Ohio St.	126	8	2
7	Penn St.	124	9	1
8	Missouri	121	8	2
9	Alabama	120	10	0
10	Georgia	120	8	2
11	Oklahoma St.	117	8	2
12	T C U	117	9	2
13	Boise State	116	9	0
14	Oregon State	116	6	3
15	South Carolina	115	7	3
16	Utah	114	10	0
17	Ball State	114	9	0
18	Oregon	114	7	3
19	California	114	6	3
20	L S U	113	6	3
21	Iowa	112	6	4
22	Arizona	112	6	3
23	West Virginia	112	6	3
24	Cincinnati	111	7	2
25	Florida State	111	7	2
Note: Ratings rounded to nearest whole number
even though I rank them to two decimal points

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

 

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Florida State	4-2	7-2	111	70	41
Clemson	2-4	4-5	107	65	42
Boston College	2-3	6-3	105	64	41
Maryland	3-2	6-3	104	64	40
Wake Forest	4-2	6-3	103	56	47
North Carolina State	1-4	3-6	98	66	32
Coastal Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
North Carolina	3-2	7-2	110	69	41
Virginia Tech	3-2	6-3	108	67	41
Miami	3-2	6-3	104	61	43
Georgia Tech	4-3	7-3	102	62	40
Virginia	3-3	5-5	101	59	42
Duke	1-4	4-5	94	61	33

 

Big East Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
West Virginia	3-1	6-3	112	67	45
Cincinnati	3-1	7-2	111	65	46
South Florida	1-3	6-3	109	69	40
Rutgers	3-2	4-5	108	65	43
Pittsburgh	3-1	7-2	108	65	43
Connecticut	2-2	6-3	103	64	39
Louisville	1-3	5-4	96	59	37
Syracuse	1-4	2-7	88	55	33

 

Big Ten
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Ohio State	5-1	8-2	126	70	56
Penn State	5-1	9-1	124	75	49
Iowa	3-3	6-4	112	70	42
Wisconsin	2-5	5-5	110	71	39
Michigan State	6-1	9-2	106	64	42
Illinois	3-3	5-5	106	67	39
Michigan	2-4	3-7	100	60	40
Northwestern	3-3	7-3	99	62	37
Minnesota	3-3	7-3	97	61	36
Purdue	1-5	3-7	97	63	34
Indiana	1-5	3-7	85	57	28

 

Big 12
North Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Missouri	4-2	8-2	121	75	46
Kansas	3-3	6-4	108	67	41
Nebraska	3-3	6-4	106	68	38
Kansas State	1-5	4-6	97	68	29
Colorado	2-4	5-5	93	56	37
Iowa State	0-6	2-8	85	57	28
South Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Texas Tech	6-0	10-0	127	86	41
Oklahoma	5-1	9-1	127	86	41
Texas	5-1	9-1	126	81	45
Oklahoma State	4-2	8-2	117	71	46
Baylor	1-5	3-7	102	65	37
Texas A&M	2-4	4-6	92	57	35

 

Conference USA
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
East Carolina	4-1	6-3	97	62	35
Southern Miss.	2-4	4-6	95	64	31
Marshall	3-2	4-5	94	59	35
Memphis	3-3	5-5	90	60	30
Central Florida	1-4	2-7	87	48	39
U A B	1-4	2-7	79	51	28
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Tulsa	5-0	8-1	106	72	34
Houston	4-1	5-4	95	63	32
Rice	5-1	7-3	91	62	29
U T E P	3-2	4-5	87	59	28
S M U	0-6	1-9	81	59	22
Tulane	1-4	2-7	79	53	26

 

Independents
Team		Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Notre Dame		5-4	103	61	42
Navy		6-3	97	60	37
Army		3-7	86	49	37

 

Mid American Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Bowling Green	3-3	5-5	99	66	33
Buffalo	3-2	5-4	98	65	33
Temple	2-3	3-6	96	56	40
Akron	3-2	5-4	93	62	31
Kent State	1-4	2-7	89	58	31
Ohio U	1-5	2-8	87	48	39
Miami (O)	1-4	2-7	86	57	29
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Ball State	5-0	9-0	114	74	40
Western Michigan	5-1	8-2	102	64	38
Central Michigan	5-0	7-2	98	66	32
Northern Illinois	4-2	5-4	98	60	38
Toledo	1-4	2-7	86	56	30
Eastern Michigan	1-5	2-8	83	52	31

 

Mountain West Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
T C U	6-1	9-2	117	66	51
Utah	6-0	10-0	114	68	46
Brigham Young	5-1	9-1	106	66	40
Air Force	5-1	8-2	99	60	39
New Mexico	2-5	4-7	96	59	37
UNLV	1-5	4-6	90	59	31
Colorado State	2-4	4-6	89	58	31
Wyoming	1-5	4-6	88	53	35
San Diego State	0-6	1-9	72	47	25

 

Pac-10 Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Southern Cal	6-1	8-1	132	73	59
Oregon State	5-1	6-3	116	74	42
Oregon	5-2	7-3	114	71	43
California	4-2	6-3	114	72	42
Arizona	4-2	6-3	112	73	39
Stanford	4-3	5-5	108	65	43
Arizona State	2-4	3-6	105	64	41
U C L A	2-4	3-6	98	56	42
Washington	0-6	0-9	87	57	30
Washington State	0-7	1-9	71	48	23

 

Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Florida	6-1	8-1	135	84	51
Georgia	5-2	8-2	120	74	46
South Carolina	4-3	7-3	115	67	48
Kentucky	2-4	6-4	106	63	43
Vanderbilt	3-3	5-4	104	58	46
Tennessee	1-5	3-7	101	59	42
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Alabama	6-0	10-0	120	68	52
L S U	3-3	6-3	113	71	42
Ole Miss	3-3	5-4	110	67	43
Auburn	2-4	5-5	105	58	47
Mississippi State	1-4	3-6	102	57	45
Arkansas	1-5	4-6	101	67	34

 

Sunbelt Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Troy	4-1	6-3	97	64	33
Louisiana-Lafayette	4-0	5-4	93	67	26
Florida Atlantic	2-2	4-5	93	62	31
Arkansas State	2-2	4-5	89	59	30
Middle Tennessee	2-3	3-6	88	56	32
Louisiana-Monroe	2-4	3-7	88	57	31
Florida International	3-2	4-5	86	56	30
* Western Kentucky	0-0	2-8	83	52	31
North Texas	0-5	1-9	70	54	16
* Western Kentucky will become eligible in 2009
Their games will not count in the SBC Standings in 2008

 

Western Athletic Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Off	Def
Boise State	5-0	9-0	116	72	44
Fresno State	2-3	5-4	92	64	28
Nevada	3-2	5-4	99	71	28
San Jose State	4-2	6-4	89	54	35
Louisiana Tech	3-2	5-4	96	56	40
Hawaii	4-3	5-5	90	54	36
Utah State	2-4	2-8	87	54	33
New Mexico State	1-4	3-6	77	50	27
Idaho	1-5	2-8	75	58	17

 

This Week’s Games–PiRate Ratings
Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
Tuesday, November 11
Favorite	Underdog	Pred. Spread	Approx. Score
Ball State	MIAMI (O)	25	45-20
Wednesday, November 12
Favorite	Underdog	Pred. Spread	Approx. Score
Temple	KENT STATE	4	24-20
NORTHERN ILLINOIS	Central Michigan	3	30-27
Thursday, November 13
Favorite	Underdog	Pred. Spread	Approx. Score
Buffalo	AKRON	2	33-31
Va. Tech	MIAMI-FL	1	22-21
UNLV	Wyoming	5	26-21
Friday, November 14
Favorite	Underdog	Pred. Spread	Approx. Score
Cincinnati	LOUISVILLE	12	26-14
Saturday, November 15
Favorite	Underdog	Pred. Spread	Approx. Score
PENN STATE	Indiana	42	49-7
Ohio State	ILLINOIS	17	30-13
SOUTH FLORIDA	Rutgers	4	27-23
MICHIGAN	Northwestern	4	24-20
CLEMSON	Duke	16	33-17
Notre Dame	NAVY           (Baltimore)	4	24-20
IOWA	Purdue	18	38-20
Texas	KANSAS	15	40-25
Georgia	AUBURN	12	24-12
Middle Tennessee	WESTERN KENTUCKY	2	23-21
New Mexico	COLORADO STATE	4	27-23
OLE MISS	Louisiana-Monroe	25	38-13
WESTERN MICHIGAN	Toledo	19	35-16
LOUISIANA TECH	Utah State	12	24-12
SOUTHERN MISS.	East Carolina	1	31-30
TULANE	U a b	3	27-24
FLORIDA	South Carolina	23	37-14
North Carolina	MARYLAND	3	27-24
B y u	AIR FORCE	4	27-23
Wake Forest	N.C. STATE	2	22-20
OREGON STATE	California	5	33-28
WISCONSIN	Minnesota	16	37-21
OREGON	Arizona	5	34-29
Nebraska	KANSAS STATE	6	37-31
FLORIDA ATLANTIC	Louisiana-Lafayette	3	38-35
BAYLOR	Texas A&M	13	31-18
NEVADA	San Jose State	13	37-24
MARSHALL	Central Florida	10	20-10
Boise State	IDAHO	38	52-14
FRESNO STATE	New Mexico State	18	38-20
ARIZONA STATE	Washington State	37	44-7
Missouri	IOWA STATE	33	45-12
Southern Cal	STANFORD	21	28-7
Connecticut	SYRACUSE	12	28-16
ALABAMA	Mississippi State	22	35-13
Utah	SAN DIEGO STATE	39	42-3
Oklahoma State	COLORADO	21	34-13
FLORIDA STATE	Boston College	9	30-21
L S U	Troy	19	38-19
Tulsa	HOUSTON	8	38-30
KENTUCKY	Vanderbilt	5	17-12
U T E P	S m u	9	37-28
U c l a	WASHINGTON	8	25-17

 

This Week’s Games–Mean Ratings
Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
Tuesday, November 11
Favorite	Underdog	Predicted Score
Ball State	MIAMI (O)	37-14
Wednesday, November 12
Favorite	Underdog	Predicted Score
Temple	KENT STATE	28-23
NORTHERN ILLINOIS	Central Michigan	24-23
Thursday, November 13
Favorite	Underdog	Predicted Score
AKRON	Buffalo	28-27
MIAMI-FL	Virginia Tech	24-20
UNLV	Wyoming	28-20
Friday, November 14
Favorite	Underdog	Predicted Score
Cincinnati	LOUISVILLE	24-17
Saturday, November 15
Favorite	Underdog	Predicted Score
PENN STATE	Indiana	41-7
Ohio State	ILLINOIS	23-14
SOUTH FLORIDA	Rutgers	27-19
Northwestern	MICHIGAN	31-26
CLEMSON	Duke	28-23
NAVY	Notre Dame	27-26
IOWA	Purdue	28-13
Texas	KANSAS	40-27
Georgia	AUBURN	20-10
Middle Tennessee	WESTERN KENTUCKY	16-14
New Mexico	COLORADO STATE	24-23
OLE MISS	Louisiana-Monroe	38-14
WESTERN MICHIGAN	Toledo	35-19
LOUISIANA TECH	Utah State	31-21
East Carolina	SOUTHERN MISS.	24-24 to ot
TULANE	U a b	30-24
FLORIDA	South Carolina	41-21
North Carolina	MARYLAND	21-16
B y u	AIR FORCE	27-27 to ot
Wake Forest	N.C. STATE	24-16
OREGON STATE	California	31-27
WISCONSIN	Minnesota	38-33
OREGON	Arizona	30-26
KANSAS STATE	Nebraska	37-31
FLORIDA ATLANTIC	Louisiana-Lafayette	24-23
BAYLOR	Texas A&M	34-28
NEVADA	San Jose State	31-23
MARSHALL	Central Florida	21-13
Boise State	IDAHO	44-10
FRESNO STATE	New Mexico State	40-27
ARIZONA STATE	Washington State	45-21
Missouri	IOWA STATE	40-14
Southern Cal	STANFORD	23-3
Connecticut	SYRACUSE	28-16
ALABAMA	Mississippi State	35-7
Utah	SAN DIEGO STATE	35-3
Oklahoma State	COLORADO	38-23
FLORIDA STATE	Boston College	28-20
L S U	Troy	31-17
Tulsa	HOUSTON	42-35
KENTUCKY	Vanderbilt	14-10
U T E P	S m u	40-27
U c l a	WASHINGTON	26-21

 

 

Bowl Outlook by Conference

 

As I mentioned above, this is becoming a mess.  Let’s take a look at the possible problems facing the bowls that must rely on conferences to produce seven to nine bowl eligible teams.  A half-dozen bowls and maybe more could be forced to find at-large teams.

 

Teams in all CAPS have already accepted invitations to that bowl.

 

ACC

North Carolina State, Virginia, Clemson, and Duke are on the verge of elimination, and I believe three of the four will fail to get to six wins.  The ACC has nine tie-ins, and it looks like they will just barely have nine bowl-eligible schools.  The Clemson-Virginia game at Charlottesville on November 22 will be a bowl elimination game.

 

1. Orange Bowl-North Carolina 11-2 vs. Cincinnati

2. Chick-fil-a-Virginia Tech 8-4 vs. Kentucky

3. Gator-Florida State 8-4 vs. Missouri

4. Champs Sports-Wake Forest 9-4 vs. Northwestern

5. Music City-Miami 8-4 vs. Ole Miss

6. Meineke Car Care-Georgia Tech 8-4 vs. West Virginia

7. Eagle Bank-Maryland 7-5 vs. NAVY

8. Emerald-Boston College 7-5 vs. Arizona

9. Humanitarian-Virginia 6-6 vs. San Jose State

 

Big East

Another week, another leader in the pack for the Big East-Cincinnati is the new team on top.  The Bearcats won at West Virginia, and wins over Louisville this Friday and Pittsburgh the following week will sew up the Big East title.  They could lose either or both games, but for now, I have them penciled in as the champion.

 

With Notre Dame’s consecutive losses and almost assured to lose to Southern Cal, I have removed the Irish from the Big East equation.  However, they will certainly grab an at-large bid from the first bowl that loses a tie-in.

 

I have Rutgers as the sole 6-6 team getting an at-large bowl bid.  Should someone like Temple or Akron finish 7-5, they will take the at-large bid away.

 

1. Orange-Cincinnati 10-3 vs. North Carolina

2. Sun-Pittsburgh 9-3 vs. Oregon State

3. St. Petersburg-South Florida 8-4 vs. East Carolina

4. Meineke Car Care-West Virginia 7-5 vs. Georgia Tech

5. International-Connecticut 7-5 vs. Central Michigan

6. Papa John’s-Louisville 6-6 vs. Florida Atlantic

7. Hawaii (at-large)-Rutgers 6-6

 

Big Ten

Penn State’s loss has virtually relegated the Nittany Lions to the Rose Bowl.  Should Michigan State beat them, then Ohio State can back into Pasadena for a possible rematch with Southern Cal.  Illinois lost to Western Michigan, and now the Illini must beat either Ohio State or Northwestern to gain eligibility.  For now, I have them out of the bowl picture, and that means the Big 10 will likely fall one team short of its obligations.  That means the Motor City Bowl will need to search for a substitute.  Notre Dame would fit in perfectly here, but if Ball State runs the table and finishes 13-0, it could present a special situation for the Motor City Bowl to make a deal with the WAC and take a 12-0 Boise State team for a dream match.

 

Minnesota’s loss to Michigan opens the door for another team to sneak into a New Year’s Bowl, but for now I have the Gophers still there.

 

1. Rose-Penn State 11-1 vs. Southern Cal

2. Fiesta-Ohio State 10-2 vs. Texas

3. Capital One-Michigan State 9-3 vs. Georgia

4. Outback-Minnesota 8-4 vs. South Carolina

5. Champs Sports-Northwestern 8-4 vs. Wake Forest

6. Alamo-Iowa 7-5 vs. Nebraska

7. Insight-Wisconsin 7-5 vs. Kansas

8. Motor City-No Team Available

 

Big 12

Texas Tech looked like a championship team against Oklahoma State, but I think they will find it difficult to win at Oklahoma.  If the Sooners beat the Red Raiders, they will then have to beat Oklahoma State in Stillwater in order to finish in a three-way tie in the Big 12 South.  If they win both games, they should finish with the highest BCS rating among the trio and acquire the bid to the Big 12 Championship Game.  I have them doing just that.  Now, here is where I think the evils of money will win out over what is just.  At 11-1, Texas Tech would deserve an at-large BCS Bowl bid over 11-1 Texas, but I am sure greed would win out.  Texas would get that bid.

 

Colorado and Kansas State still have much work to do to gain bowl eligibility.  I think the Buffaloes will miss out, and it could mean big trouble for Coach Dan Hawkins in Boulder.  Kansas State has a decent chance to upset Nebraska and knock off Iowa State to sneak in at 6-6.  If they lose to the Cornhuskers, then the Big 12 will fall two teams short in their allotments.

 

1. BCS National Championship-Oklahoma 12-1 vs. Florida

2. Fiesta-Texas 11-1 vs. Ohio State

3. Cotton-Texas Tech 11-1 vs. LSU

4. Gator-Missouri 10-3 vs. Florida State

5. Holiday-Oklahoma State 9-3 vs. California

6. Alamo-Nebraska 7-5 vs. Iowa

7. Insight-Kansas 6-6 vs. Wisconsin

8. Independence-Kansas State 6-6 vs. Louisiana Tech

9. Texas-No Qualifying team

 

C-USA

This is a big week in the C-USA, as both divisions have key showdowns that will go a long way in determining their representatives in the conference title game.  Houston hosts Tulsa, and should the Cougars win, the West Division will be tied three ways between these two and Rice.  Houston concludes the season at Rice.  Tulsa holds the tiebreaker over Rice, and Houston would hold the tiebreaker over Tulsa if they beat the Golden Hurricane.

 

In the East, East Carolina visits Southern Mississippi.  If the Pirates win, they are in the title game.  Marshall still has an outside chance to win this division, but I believe the Thundering Herd will lose at least two more games and fail to gain bowl eligibility. 

 

After a start that looked like it would cost Tommy West his job, his Memphis team is the hottest squad in the East Division.  I look for the Tigers to win out and earn their fifth bowl game in six years.

 

Southern Mississippi must defeat ECU and SMU to get to six wins; for now, I have them doing that, but it is quite a tenuous supposition.  Chances are about 60% that the New Orleans Bowl will have to find an at-large team.

 

1. Liberty-Tulsa 11-2 vs. Vanderbilt

2. St. Petersburg-East Carolina 8-5 vs. South Florida

3. G M A C-Rice 9-3 vs. Western Michigan

4. Armed Forces-Houston 7-5 vs. U N L V

5. Texas-Memphis 7-5 vs. Buffalo

6. New Orleans-Southern Miss. 6-6 vs. Troy

 

Independent

The one sure thing is that Navy is headed to the first Eagle Bank Bowl in Washington, D.C.  Notre Dame should be bowl eligible, and at 7-5 they will definitely be invited to fill an at-large spot.  They could still steal the Sun Bowl bid from the Big East, but I believe there will be more deserving teams to go to El Paso.

 

1. Sun-Notre Dame 7-5 vs. Arizona

2. Eagle Bank-NAVY 7-5 vs. Wake Forest

 

M A C

Here is where the bowl situation becomes a bloody mess.  Let’s start with the possibility that Ball State could finish 13-0 and in the top 15 and not qualify for an at-large BCS Bowl.  At 13-0, it would be terrible for the Cardinals to face a 6-6 Big 10 team or some at-large team that barely qualified at 7-5.  I believe an excellent situation would be available if both Boise State and Ball State finished undefeated.  A deal could be struck for the two teams to play, leaving a western bowl with two more evenly-matched teams.  Should Utah lose to BYU, then Ball State would still need a Boise State loss to back into a possible Sugar Bowl bid.

 

Since it is silly to try to predict a back room deal, I am leaving the bowl tie-ins alone for now, but with the above caveat in place.

 

As for the rest of the league, this is getting very interesting.  The MAC finishes the season with November games on Tuesdays, Wednesdays, and Thursdays.  Last week, the nation saw Ball State destroy a good Northern Illinois team.  Tonight (Tuesday), the Cardinals should blow Miami of Ohio off the field.  Three more key conference games tomorrow and Thursday could play important roles in determining bowl bids.  Akron and Buffalo hook up in the Rubber Bowl, where the winner takes a commanding lead in the East.  Temple goes to Kent State, where an Owl win puts them in position to challenge for a piece of the division title.  Northern Illinois and Central Michigan play Wednesday in Dekalb, and if the Chippewas win on the road, they may be a major obstacle for Ball State the following Wednesday.

 

1. Motor City-Ball State 13-0 vs. Notre Dame (Boise State?)

2. International-Central Michigan 9-3 vs. Connecticut

3. G M A C-Western Michigan 9-3 vs. Rice

4. Poinsettia (at-large)-Northern Illinois 7-5 vs. BYU

5. Texas (at-large)-Buffalo 7-6 vs. Memphis

 

Mountain West

Utah’s come-from-behind win over TCU has them firmly holding onto the at-large BCS Bowl bid.  A win over a weakening BYU team will clinch it.  That means, the MWC will get an extra bowl bid, and there will be an available team.  That team will be the one that finishes 6-6 from among UNLV, Wyoming, and Colorado State.  Wyoming plays the other two to finish out the season, while UNLV also plays San Diego State and Colorado State also plays New Mexico.  The Rebels have the easiest path to 6-6.

 

See the WAC for an explanation of the New Mexico.

 

1. Sugar-Utah 12-0 vs. Alabama

2. Las Vegas-TCU 10-2 vs. Oregon

3. Poinsettia-BYU 9-3 vs. Northern Illinois

4. New Mexico-Air Force 9-3 vs. Boise State (Notre Dame?)

5. Armed Forces-UNLV 6-6 vs. Houston

 

Pac-10

Oregon State still controls its own destiny in the Pac-10.  If the Beavers beat California, Arizona, and Oregon, they are in the Rose Bowl no matter what USC does in their games.  An Oregon State-Penn State rematch would not be all that exciting.  I think OSU will lose one of those final three, and USC will win out.

 

Stanford must upset either USC or Cal to gain bowl eligibility, and I don’t believe they can do that.  UCLA will most certainly not win out, so the Bruins will not get to six wins.  Arizona State has a remote chance of winning out to finish 6-6, but for now I have them finishing 5-7.  That means the Pac-10 will fall two teams shy of their bowl allotments.

 

 

1. Rose-Southern Cal 11-1 vs. Penn State

2. Holiday-California 8-4 vs. Oklahoma State

3. Sun-Oregon State 8-4 vs. Pittsburgh

4. Las Vegas-Oregon 8-4 vs. TCU

5. Emerald-Arizona 8-4 vs. Boston College

6. Poinsettia-No qualifying team

7. Hawaii- No qualifying team

 

S E C

Has there ever been a more dominant one-loss team in college football than the 2008 Florida Gators?  I can only compare them to a few past teams, mostly from six decades past.  In 1943, a 9-1 Notre Dame team easily destroyed eight of their opponents before surviving against one military all-star team and losing late to another.  Of course, the Irish were so dominant then with help of WWII.  I liken this Florida team to the 1968 UCLA Bruin basketball team.  UCLA lost by two points on the road to the best team since 1956 not coached by John Wooden.  They lost with Lew Alcindor (Kareem Abdul Jabbar) still hampered by an eye injury.  When the Bruins faced Houston in the Final Four, they led by over 40 points with eight minutes remaining before Coach Wooden emptied the bench.  Now Florida did not lose on the road at Alabama, Texas Tech, or USC.  Tim Tebow was not recovering from an injury at the time the Gators lost at home to Ole Miss.  However, this is SEC football.  Any SEC team that is headed to a bowl is by definition one of the best in the nation.  We all know the Gators would beat Ole Miss by five touchdowns in a rematch.  I think Florida today can beat any college team by two touchdowns or more, with the exception of Southern Cal, and they would beat them by 7-10 points. 

 

Alabama is still unbeaten and ranked number one.  The Tide should reach the SEC Championship Game at 12-0, but I’m willing to wager that an 11-1 Florida team will be favored by the wise guys in Las Vegas, who know who is the best team in the nation.  Penn State’s losing last week crushed the hopes of the Rose Bowl to get the Tide out to Pasadena.  If Southern Cal could move into the top spot, then a 12-1 Bama team could still make it west for the first time since January of 1946.  Fat Chance!

 

The SEC is going to fall at least two teams short in meeting their bowl obligations.  Tennessee was eliminated last week.  Auburn would have to beat either Georgia or Alabama, and that won’t happen.  Mississippi State would have to beat Alabama, Arkansas, and Ole Miss, and there’s no chance.  Arkansas might beat Mississippi State, but they won’t defeat LSU and will finish under .500.  Vanderbilt still needs one win and has Kentucky, Tennessee, and Wake Forest left.  For now, I am calling the Tennessee game a win, but I am not confident about that.  They could easily finish 5-7 after starting 5-0 and really put daggers in the hearts of their fans.

 

1. National Championship-Florida 12-1 vs. Oklahoma

2. Sugar-Alabama 12-1 vs. Utah

3. Capital One-Georgia 10-2 vs. Michigan State

4. Outback-South Carolina 8-4 vs. Minnesota

5. Cotton-L S U 9-3 vs. Texas Tech

6. Chick-fil-a-Kentucky 7-5 vs. Virginia Tech

7. Music City-Ole Miss 7-5 vs. Miami

8. Liberty-Vanderbilt 6-6 vs. Tulsa

9. Independence-No qualifying team

10. Papa John’s-No qualifying team

 

Sunbelt

Troy is still in command here, but the Trojans have a tough game remaining against Louisiana-Lafayette.  Troy would have gotten an extra week to prepare for this game, but their game with LSU had to be rescheduled after the September hurricane.  The ULL game is in Troy, so I still have the Trojans penciled in darkly as probable SBC champs.

 

With all the at-large possibilities, chances are quite strong that a second team will get a bowl bid.  There is even a slim chance that a third team could earn one too.

 

1. New Orleans-Troy 8-4 vs. Southern Miss.

2. Papa John’s (at-large)-Florida Atlantic 7-5 vs. Louisville

 

W A C

Boise State should finish 12-0, and they should finish in the top 10.  Unless Utah loses, the Broncos will be left out in the cold when the BCS doles out its big bowl bids.  Personally, I would love to see a Utah-Boise State Fiesta Bowl or even Cotton Bowl, but that isn’t going to happen.  What could happen is a deal for Boise State to be released from their WAC bowl alliance to face Ball State if both are unbeaten. 

 

San Jose State is the only other WAC team that has secured bowl eligibility, and there are four other teams vying for the remaining two bowls.  I believe three will get to seven wins, and one of the trio will get an at-large invitation.

 

1. New Mexico-Boise State 12-0 vs. Air Force

(Boise State could swap with Notre Dame and face a 13-0 Ball State team.  I am sure the New Mexico Bowl would gladly take Notre Dame.)

2. Humanitarian-San Jose State 7-5 vs. Virginia

3. Hawaii-Hawaii 7-6 vs. Rutgers

4. Independence (at-large)-Louisiana Tech 8-4 vs. Kansas St.