The Pi-Rate Ratings

November 4, 2008

PiRate Ratings For College Football–Week of: November 4-8, 2008

NCAA Week 11: Expect At Least One Major Upset

 

Congratulations go to the Red Raiders from Lubbock.  Now, Texas Tech must face Oklahoma State and Oklahoma their next two games.  There just isn’t enough defense in this league when compared to the outstanding offenses, and it doesn’t look likely that TTU will win both of those games and also beat Missouri in a Big 12 Championship Game.

 

Alabama is the new BCS #1 team, and I just cannot see the Tide beating both LSU and Florida. 

 

Penn State still has two trap games left on their schedule.  Their game at Iowa is the tougher of the two, but Michigan State cannot be overlooked.  I think the Nittany Lions have the best chance of the undefeated BCS trio of finishing 12-0.

 

As for the race for the possible at-large BCS bid for a conference champion, something tells me that Utah will fall to either TCU or BYU if not both teams.  Tulsa was eliminated with their loss to Arkansas.  Ball State has an almost impossible task of having to defeat the other three excellent teams within their division.  I don’t think they can go 3-0 against Northern Illinois, Central Michigan, and Western Michigan.  Boise State is now my overwhelming favorite to run the table and snatch the BCS bowl bid.

 

As for my Top 25, I have two one-loss teams well ahead of the undefeated teams.  If there was a playoff, I believe the boys in Vegas would agree with me that Southern Cal and Florida would be the teams meeting in the championship.

 

The PiRate Top 25 is different from the polls.  I do not rank the teams based on what they have done to date.  These teams are rated on how I think they will perform in the future (predictive ratings).

 

NCAA Top 25 For 4-Nov-2008
Rank Team PiRate Won Lost
1 Florida  135 7 1
2 Southern Cal 133 7 1
3 Penn St. 127 9 0
4 Texas 127 8 1
5 Oklahoma 126 8 1
6 Ohio St. 123 7 2
7 Texas Tech 122 9 0
8 Alabama 121 9 0
9 Oklahoma St. 121 8 1
10 Missouri 121 7 2
11 Georgia  121 7 2
12 T C U 118 9 1
13 Boise State 116 8 0
14 South Carolina 115 6 3
15 West Virginia 114 6 2
16 Oregon 114 6 3
17 Utah 113 9 0
18 California 113 6 2
19 Oregon State 113 5 3
20 Arizona 113 5 3
21 L S U 112 6 2
22 Ball State 111 8 0
23 Kansas 110 6 3
24 Ole Miss 110 5 4
25 Iowa 110 5 4
         
Note: Ratings rounded to nearest whole number
even though I rank them to two decimal points

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division          
Team Conf. Overall Rating Off Def
Florida State 3-2 6-2 109 69 40
Clemson 2-3 4-4 109 66 43
Maryland 3-1 6-2 105 65 40
Boston College 2-3 5-3 102 64 38
Wake Forest 3-2 5-3 102 55 47
North Carolina State 0-4 2-6 94 64 30
           
Coastal Division          
Team Conf. Overall Rating Off Def
North Carolina 2-2 6-2 108 69 39
Virginia Tech 2-2 5-3 107 67 40
Miami 3-2 6-3 104 61 43
Georgia Tech 4-2 7-2 104 64 40
Virginia  3-2 5-4 102 59 43
Duke 1-3 4-4 98 63 35

 

Big East Conference
           
Team Conf. Overall Rating Off Def
West Virginia 3-0 6-2 114 69 45
Cincinnati 2-1 6-2 109 65 44
South Florida 1-3 6-3 109 69 40
Rutgers 2-2 3-5 108 65 43
Pittsburgh 2-1 6-2 106 64 42
Connecticut 2-2 6-3 103 64 29
Louisville 1-2 5-3 99 61 38
Syracuse 1-3 2-6 88 55 33

 

Big Ten
           
Team Conf. Overall Rating Off Def
Penn State 5-0 9-0 127 76 51
Ohio State 4-1 7-2 123 68 55
Iowa 2-3 5-4 110 69 41
Illinois 3-3 5-4 108 68 40
Wisconsin 1-5 4-5 107 69 38
Michigan State 5-1 8-2 106 64 42
Northwestern 3-2 7-2 102 63 39
Minnesota 3-2 7-2 102 64 38
Purdue 1-4 3-6 97 63 34
Michigan 1-4 2-7 95 58 37
Indiana 1-4 3-6 88 58 30

 

Big 12
North Division          
Team Conf. Overall Rating Off Def
Missouri 3-2 7-2 121 75 46
Kansas 3-2 6-3 110 67 43
Nebraska 2-3 5-4 103 65 38
Kansas State 1-4 4-5 97 68 29
Colorado 1-4 4-5 94 56 38
Iowa State 0-5 2-7 84 56 28
South Division          
Team Conf. Overall Rating Off Def
Texas 4-1 8-1 127 81 46
Oklahoma 4-1 8-1 126 85 41
Texas Tech 5-0 9-0 122 83 39
Oklahoma State 4-1 8-1 121 72 49
Baylor 1-4 3-6 101 64 37
Texas A&M 2-3 4-5 93 57 36

 

Conference USA
East Division          
Team Conf. Overall Rating Off Def
East Carolina 3-1 5-3 98 63 35
Marshall 3-1 4-4 93 59 34
Southern Miss. 1-4 3-6 93 64 29
Memphis 2-3 4-5 90 60 30
Central Florida 1-3 2-6 89 50 39
U A B 1-4 2-7 79 51 28
West Division          
Team Conf. Overall Rating Off Def
Tulsa 5-0 8-1 106 72 34
Houston 3-1 4-4 92 62 30
Rice 5-1 6-3 91 62 29
U T E P 3-2 3-5 83 56 27
Tulane 1-3 2-6 82 55 27
S M U 0-5 1-8 81 59 22

 

Independents
           
Team   Overall Rating Off Def
Notre Dame   5-3 106 64 42
Navy   6-3 97 60 37
Army   3-6 86 49 37

 

Mid American Conference
East Division          
Team Conf. Overall Rating Off Def
Buffalo 2-2 4-4 97 64 33
Bowling Green 2-3 4-5 96 65 31
Temple 2-3 3-6 96 56 40
Akron 2-2 4-4 91 60 31
Ohio U 1-4 2-7 90 51 39
Kent State 1-4 2-7 89 58 31
Miami (O) 1-3 2-6 87 57 30
           
West Division          
Team Conf. Overall Rating Off Def
Ball State 4-0 8-0 111 72 39
Northern Illinois 4-1 5-3 101 61 40
Western Michigan 5-1 7-2 100 64 36
Central Michigan 5-0 7-2 98 66 32
Toledo 1-3 2-6 88 56 32
Eastern Michigan 1-5 2-8 83 52 31

 

Mountain West Conference
           
Team Conf. Overall Rating Off Def
T C U 6-0 9-1 118 67 51
Utah 5-0 9-0 113 68 45
Brigham Young 4-1 8-1 106 66 40
New Mexico 2-4 4-6 98 60 38
Air Force 4-1 7-2 97 58 39
Colorado State 2-3 4-5 91 59 32
UNLV 0-5 3-6 88 58 30
Wyoming 1-5 3-6 83 53 30
San Diego State 0-5 1-8 72 47 25

 

Pac-10 Conference
           
Team Conf. Overall Rating Off Def
Southern Cal 5-1 7-1 133 74 59
Oregon 4-2 6-3 114 71 43
California 4-1 6-2 113 72 41
Oregon State 4-1 5-3 113 74 39
Arizona 3-2 5-3 113 73 40
Stanford 4-2 5-4 108 65 43
Arizona State 1-4 2-6 105 64 41
U C L A 2-3 3-5 101 59 42
Washington 0-5 0-8 87 57 30
Washington State 0-6 1-8 70 47 23

 

Southeastern Conference
East Division          
Team Conf. Overall Rating Off Def
Florida  5-1 7-1 135 84 51
Georgia  4-2 7-2 121 74 47
South Carolina 3-3 6-3 115 67 48
Tennessee 1-5 3-6 107 64 43
Kentucky 2-3 6-3 105 62 43
Vanderbilt 3-2 5-3 104 58 46
West Division          
Team Conf. Overall Rating Off Def
Alabama 5-0 9-0 121 69 52
L S U 3-2 7-2 112 71 41
Ole Miss 3-3 5-4 110 67 43
Auburn 2-4 4-5 105 58 47
Mississippi State 1-4 3-6 102 57 45
Arkansas 1-4 4-5 101 67 34

 

Sunbelt Conference
           
Team Conf. Overall Rating Off Def
Troy 4-1 6-3 98 65 33
Louisiana-Lafayette 4-0 5-3 97 68 29
Florida Atlantic 1-2 3-5 90 60 30
Arkansas State 2-1 4-4 89 59 30
Middle Tennessee 1-3 2-6 88 56 32
Louisiana-Monroe 2-3 3-6 88 57 31
Florida International 2-2 3-5 86 56 30
* Western Kentucky 0-0 2-7 82 52 30
North Texas 0-4 1-8 72 55 17
           
* Western Kentucky will become eligible in 2009      
Their games will not count in the SBC Standings in 2008    

 

Western Athletic Conference
           
Team Conf. Overall Rating Off Def
Boise State 4-0 8-0 116 72 44
Fresno State 2-2 5-3 96 66 30
Nevada 2-2 4-4 96 69 27
San Jose State 4-1 6-3 93 57 36
Louisiana Tech 2-2 4-4 91 55 36
Hawaii 3-3 4-5 89 53 36
Utah State 2-3 2-7 87 54 33
New Mexico State 1-3 3-5 78 50 28
Idaho 1-5 2-8 75 58 17

 

This Week’s Games–PiRate Ratings
Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site    
       
Tuesday, November 4      
Favorite Underdog Pred. Spread Approx. Score
BUFFALO Miami (O) 13 34-21
       
Wednesday, November 5      
Favorite Underdog Pred. Spread Approx. Score
BALL STATE Northern Illinois 13 34-21
AKRON Toledo 6 30-24
       
Thursday, November 6      
Favorite Underdog Pred. Spread Approx. Score
VIRGINIA TECH Maryland 5 28-23
T c u UTAH 2 21-19
       
Friday, November 7      
Favorite Underdog Pred. Spread Approx. Score
FRESNO STATE Nevada 3 41-38
       
Saturday, November 8      
Favorite Underdog Pred. Spread Approx. Score
Ohio State NORTHWESTERN 18 28-10
Georgia KENTUCKY 13 28-15
MICHIGAN STATE Purdue 12 31-19
NORTH CAROLINA Georgia Tech 7 31-24
FLORIDA STATE Clemson 3 27-24
Wisconsin INDIANA 16 37-21
MINNESOTA Michigan 10 30-20
WAKE FOREST Virginia 3 13-10
RUTGERS Syracuse 23 35-12
PITTSBURGH Louisville 10 27-17
Illinois Western Michigan  (in Detroit) 7 31-24
TEXAS TECH Oklahoma St. 4 35-31
TEXAS  Baylor 29 45-16
Florida  VANDERBILT 28 38-10
Oklahoma TEXAS A&M 30 48-18
MISSOURI Kansas State 27 48-21
Kansas NEBRASKA 4 28-24
SOUTH CAROLINA Arkansas 17 34-17
TENNESSEE Wyoming 27 34-7
BOISE STATE Utah State 32 42-10
B Y U San Diego St. 37 44-7
COLORADO Iowa State 13 30-17
Bowling Green OHIO U 3 24-21
RICE Army 8 28-20
Memphis S M U 6 35-29
Alabama L S U 6 27-21
Penn State IOWA  14 34-20
DUKE North Carolina St. 7 34-27
EAST CAROLINA Marshall 8 29-21
Southern Miss. CENTRAL FLORIDA 1 24-23
MIDDLE TENNESSEE La.-Monroe 3 27-24
OREGON Stanford 9 30-21
TROY Western Kentucky 19 36-17
Hawaii NEW MEXICO ST. 8 24-16
FLORIDA ATLANTIC North Texas 21 45-24
Arizona WASHINGTON STATE 40 47-7
UL-LAFAYETTE U t e p 17 41-24
FLA.-INT’L Arkansas State 0 28-28 to ot
SOUTHERN CAL California 23 35-12
SAN JOSE STATE Louisiana Tech 5 21-16
Notre Dame BOSTON COLLEGE 1 24-23
HOUSTON Tulane 13 37-24
New Mexico U N L V 7 28-21

 

This Week’s Games–Mean Ratings
Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site  
Tuesday, November 4    
Favorite Underdog Predicted Score
BUFFALO Miami (O) 30-14
     
Wednesday, November 5    
Favorite Underdog Predicted Score
BALL STATE Northern Illinois 28-13
AKRON Toledo 26-17
     
Thursday, November 6    
Favorite Underdog Predicted Score
VIRGINIA TECH Maryland 20-14
UTAH T c u 17-16
     
Friday, November 7    
Favorite Underdog Predicted Score
FRESNO STATE Nevada 28-23
     
Saturday, November 8    
Favorite Underdog Predicted Score
Ohio State NORTHWESTERN 20-14
Georgia KENTUCKY 21-13
MICHIGAN STATE Purdue 31-17
NORTH CAROLINA Georgia Tech 21-16
FLORIDA STATE Clemson 21-12
Wisconsin INDIANA 31-23
MINNESOTA Michigan 37-21
WAKE FOREST Virginia 21-17
RUTGERS Syracuse 37-21
PITTSBURGH Louisville 34-24
Illinois Western Michigan  (in Detroit) 26-24
TEXAS TECH Oklahoma St. 38-31
TEXAS  Baylor 44-14
Florida  VANDERBILT 31-13
Oklahoma TEXAS A&M 41-17
MISSOURI Kansas State 45-24
NEBRASKA Kansas  35-33
SOUTH CAROLINA Arkansas 28-17
TENNESSEE Wyoming 27-10
BOISE STATE Utah State 38-6
B Y U San Diego St. 44-10
COLORADO Iowa State 40-27
Bowling Green OHIO U 27-24
RICE Army 28-14
Memphis S M U 34-28
Alabama L S U 24-17
Penn State IOWA  20-7
DUKE North Carolina St. 35-20
EAST CAROLINA Marshall 31-21
CENTRAL FLORIDA Southern Miss. 24-24 to ot
MIDDLE TENNESSEE La.-Monroe 27-21
OREGON Stanford 34-24
TROY Western Kentucky 33-14
Hawaii NEW MEXICO ST. 27-21
FLORIDA ATLANTIC North Texas 44-27
Arizona WASHINGTON STATE 40-14
UL-LAFAYETTE U t e p 33-24
FLA.-INT’L Arkansas State 28-27
SOUTHERN CAL California 34-17
SAN JOSE STATE Louisiana Tech 31-22
BOSTON COLLEGE Notre Dame 26-24
HOUSTON Tulane 38-24
New Mexico U N L V 24-22

 

 

Bowl Outlook by Conference

 

What a change one week makes!  Texas falls to at-large BCS Bowl status.  Texas Tech moves up for the time being, while Penn State is punished for not playing.  Joe Paterno’s teams have been left out of the national championship race four times in the past when they finished undefeated (1968, 1969, 1973, and 1994).  I don’t think it can happen this year.  If they are 12-0 on November 23, they will be in the BCS Championship game; I just don’t see both Texas Tech and Alabama finishing the regular season at 13-0, and I don’t really think either of them will do so.  Let’s look at each conference and see how the bowls are shaping up.  We officially saw the first bowl invitation extended this week.  From here on, if you see a team listed in all caps, they have committed to the bowl in question.

 

ACC

This is a muddied race.  There is a good chance that 5-3 could earn a tie in both divisions.  There just isn’t a high-quality team in this league, and there isn’t really a terrible team either.  I have seven of the ACC teams finishing 5-3 as of today, and both divisions will need a tiebreaker to determine their representatives in the ACC Championship Game.

 

1. Orange Bowl-Virginia Tech 9-4 vs. West Virginia

2. Chick-fil-a-North Carolina 9-3 vs. Kentucky

3. Gator-Florida State 8-4 vs. Missouri

4. Champs Sports-Maryland 8-5 vs. Northwestern

5. Music City-Miami 8-4 vs. Tennessee

6. Meineke Car Care-Georgia Tech 8-4 vs. Cincinnati

7. Eagle Bank-Wake Forest 8-4 vs. NAVY

8. Emerald-Boston College 7-5 vs. Oregon State

9. Humanitarian-Clemson 6-6 vs. Fresno State

 

Virginia 6-6 but no invitation

 

Big East

West Virginia has taken a commanding lead after beating Connecticut last week.  I still think they will lose at least one conference game, but even at 6-1, they should win the Big East title by two games.  Pittsburgh and Cincinnati can still win the crown, but the odds favor the Mountaineers.

 

1. Orange-West Virginia vs. Virginia Tech

2. Sun-Notre Dame (see independents)

3. St. Petersburg-Pittsburgh 8-4 vs. Tulsa

4. Meineke Car Care-Cincinnati 9-4 vs. Georgia Tech

5. International-Connecticut 8-4 vs. Ball State

6. Papa John’s-South Florida 8-4 vs. Buffalo

7. Texas *-Louisville 7-5 vs. Houston

*=The Big East is the official backup conference for the Texas Bowl.

 

Rutgers 6-6 but no invitation

 

Big Ten

Penn State is not a lock to finish 12-0, but I have them doing so for this exercise.  Should they lose, then they will end up in Pasadena rather than Miami.  There is still a chance that the Big 10 could come up one team short, but for now I have Wisconsin, Iowa, and Illinois finishing strong enough to satisfy the allotments.

 

1. BCS National Championship-Penn State 12-0 vs. Florida

2. Fiesta-Ohio State 10-2 vs. Texas Tech

3. Capital One-Michigan State 9-3 vs. Georgia

4. Outback-Minnesota 9-3 vs. South Carolina

5. Champs Sports-Northwestern 8-4 vs. Maryland

6. Alamo-Illinois 7-5 vs. Nebraska

7. Insight-Wisconsin 6-6 vs. Kansas

8. Motor City-Iowa 6-6 vs. Central Michigan

 

Big 12

Here is where having five really good teams hurts a conference.  It is highly likely that Texas Tech will lose to either Oklahoma State or Oklahoma and possibly both.  Texas should finish 11-1; if Texas Tech finished 11-1, losing to Oklahoma, and Oklahoma also finishes 11-1, then the highest BCS-rated team would win the tiebreaker.  Texas would probably be that team, and they could easily lose to Missouri in a rematch.  Then, Oklahoma could have a shot at the BCS National Championship game if they clobbered both Texas Tech and Oklahoma State.  I think Texas Tech might beat Oklahoma State and lose to Oklahoma, while Oklahoma loses to Oklahoma State; that would give Tech the South title.

 

The one sure thing from this league is that they will have a difficult time fulfilling their allotments.  The Texas Bowl has a contingency to take a Big East team should the final Big 12 slot go untaken.

 

1. Fiesta-Texas Tech 12-1 vs. Ohio State

2. Sugar-Texas 11-1 vs. Boise State

3. Cotton-Oklahoma 10-2 vs. LSU

4. Gator-Missouri 10-3 vs. Florida State

5. Holiday-Oklahoma State 10-2 vs. California

6. Alamo-Nebraska 7-5 vs. Illinois

7. Insight-Kansas 6-6 vs. Wisconsin

8. Independence-Kansas State 6-6 vs. UL-Lafayette

9. Texas-No Qualifying team

 

C-USA

Tulsa lost out on its chance to garner a BCS at-large bowl bid, and they may lose again in the regular season.  The Golden Hurricane still have two tough road games in conference play and could even drop to second place if they lose both games.  Rice has an easier finish and could sneak into the title game should Tulsa fall apart.  I think Tulsa coach Todd Graham is going to be in the mix for several job openings, and it could hurt his team’s concentration.

 

East Carolina has the talent and the emotions to win the conference championship.  Memphis has an easy finishing schedule and should join Houston and Marshall as bowl eligible teams.

 

1. Liberty-East Carolina 10-3 vs. Ole Miss

2. St. Petersburg-Tulsa 10-3 vs. Pittsburgh

3. G M A C-Rice 9-3 vs. Northern Illinois

4. Armed Forces-Memphis 7-5 vs. Air Force

5. Texas-Houston 6-6 vs. Louisville

6. New Orleans-Marshall 6-6 vs. Troy

 

Independent

Notre Dame’s setback against Pittsburgh shouldn’t hamper their chances of stealing one of the Big East Bowl slots they are entitled to stealing.  I still think they will get a bid at 7-5.  Navy has officially accepted a bid to the inaugural Eagle Bank Bowl game.

 

1. Sun-Notre Dame 7-5 vs. Arizona

2. Eagle Bank-NAVY 7-5 vs. Wake Forest

 

M A C

Ball State is in the top 25 and is still in the running for an at-large BCS bowl bid.  The road to 13-0 looks too hard for the Cardinals, as Northern Illinois, Central Michigan, and Western Michigan are all good enough to beat half the Big 10 teams on a neutral field.  Ball State could finish 11-1 and miss out on the MAC title game. 

 

The other side of this league is a real mess.  There’s a strong chance that three teams will finish 5-3, and the tiebreaker will have to go past the first test, since they will have all been 1-1 in head-to-head competition.

 

There is a good chance that as many as three extra teams could finish with the most important seven wins.  As the at-large non-BCS bowl rules state, all seven win teams must be invited to fulfill spots left vacant by the allotted conferences before any 6-6 team can be invited.  So, a 7-6 Buffalo team would take precedence over a 6-6 team from a BCS conference.

 

Because a seven-win MAC team will probably be all that’s available to the Poinsettia Bowl, and it looks like a 10-2 or even 11-1 team will be the opponent, there might be some bowl deals to make better match-ups.  I will leave this possibility alone until the rumors begin to make their rounds.

 

1. Motor City-Central Michigan 10-3 vs. Iowa

2. International-Ball State 11-1 vs. Connecticut

3. G M A C-Northern Illinois 8-4 vs. Rice

4. Hawaii (at-large)-Western Michigan 8-4 vs. Louisiana Tech

5. Poinsettia (at-large)-Akron 7-5 vs. Utah

6. Papa John’s (at-large)-Buffalo 7-6 vs. South Florida

 

Mountain West

I just cannot see Utah winning out this year.  I think TCU will beat them Thursday night, and if not, BYU has a 50-50 shot at doing so in the season-ender.  So, I am taking away a BCS bid from this league for the time being.  I usually don’t like to pick a team to repeat in a bowl, but I’ll make an exception for a service academy playing in a bowl honoring the services.

 

1. Las Vegas-TCU 11-1 vs. Oregon

2. Poinsettia-Utah 11-1 vs. Akron

3. New Mexico-BYU 9-3 vs. San Jose St.

4. Armed Forces-Air Force 9-3 vs. Memphis

 

Pac-10

Oregon State must lose a game before Southern Cal can win the automatic BCS Bowl bid.  That possibility looks quite strong, as the Beavers must finish out the season with games against Cal, Arizona (on the road), and Oregon.  Should OSU run the table, then they will be headed to the Rose Bowl, and USC will steal an at-large bowl bid from someone else.  For now, I am going with the thought that the Trojans will win the Pac-10 at 8-1.

 

With Stanford, Arizona State, and UCLA needing some big upsets to finish 6-6, it’s highly unlikely this league will satisfy its allotted bids.  I think they will fall two teams short.

 

1. Rose-Southern Cal 11-1 vs. Alabama

2. Holiday-California 8-4 vs. Oklahoma State

3. Sun-Arizona 8-4 vs. Notre Dame

4. Las Vegas-Oregon 8-4 vs. TCU

5. Emerald-Oregon State 8-4 vs. Boston College

6. Poinsettia-No qualifying team

7. Hawaii- No qualifying team

 

S E C

Florida has shown to the nation that they are the best team, and I don’t think there is an opponent out there, other than USC, that could beat them today.  I think they will win out, including a nice victory over Alabama in the SEC Championship Game.  If Alabama beats LSU and loses to Florida to finish 12-1, the Tide will more than likely head to the Rose Bowl for the first time in 60-plus years.  The folks in Pasadena would love to land the Crimson Tide, and they would have first dibs on them if Penn State finished number one in the BCS ratings.

 

With Phil Fulmer resigning, I think his Tennessee squad will rally and win out for him to get bowl eligible.  Kentucky became bowl eligible Saturday by winning at Mississippi State.  Arkansas is within striking distance of getting to six wins, but they would have to win two of their final three games (at South Carolina, at Mississippi State, vs. LSU).  I think they will come up short.  Vanderbilt is 5-3, but I think they too will come up short, losing to Florida, Kentucky, Tennessee, and Wake Forest.  So, the SEC will not meets its requirement, and two bowls will need to find substitutes.

 

1. National Championship-Florida 12-1 vs. Penn State

2. Rose-Alabama 12-1 vs. Southern Cal

3. Capital One-Georgia 10-2 vs. Michigan State

4. Outback-South Carolina 8-4 vs. Minnesota

5. Cotton-L S U 9-3 vs. Oklahoma

6. Chick-fil-a-Kentucky 7-5 vs. North Carolina

7. Music City-Tennessee 6-6 vs. Miami

8. Liberty-Ole Miss 7-5 vs. East Carolina

9. Independence-No qualifying team

10. Papa John’s-No qualifying team

 

Sunbelt

Troy’s loss has opened the door for Louisiana-Lafayette, but the Ragin’ Cajuns still must play the Trojans in Troy.

 

1. New Orleans-Troy 9-3 vs. Marshall

2. Independence (at-large)-UL-Lafayette 7-5 vs. Kansas State

 

One other team should finish 6-6 but won’t get an invitation

 

W A C

Boise State should finish 12-0, and I believe they will secure a BCS at-large bowl bid. 

 

Nevada, Hawaii, and New Mexico State have only slim chances of getting to six wins (seven in Hawaii’s case), while Louisiana Tech may be the surprise fourth bowl team.

 

1. Sugar-Boise State 12-0 vs. Texas

2. Humanitarian-Fresno State 7-5 vs. Clemson

3. New Mexico-San Jose State 8-4 vs. BYU

4. Hawaii-Louisiana Tech 7-5 vs. Western Michigan

 

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