NCAA Week Ten: Gunfight At The Lubbock Corral
Doc Holliday Brown and Ike Clanton Leach will meet at the corral in Lubbock this weekend, and the shootout will begin. This one may get the same amount of press coverage as that other shootout 127 years ago in Tombstone, Arizona.
This is the last major hurdle for Texas until the Big 12 Championship rematch with Missouri, but it will be difficult winning a fourth consecutive conference game over a Top 10 team. Unlike the other three, they will have to do it in hostile territory.
Penn State and Alabama won big on rivals’ turf last week. The Nittany Lions get a week off before heading to Iowa on November 8, while the Tide get a homecoming breather with Arkansas State before playing at LSU on the eighth.
The chase for the non-BCS at-large berth continues in full this week. Utah, Boise State, Ball State, and Tulsa remain undefeated. Utah has a possible trap game at New Mexico.
Tulsa has their toughest game of the season at Arkansas, and the Golden Hurricane have not beaten the Razorbacks since 1976. Twice in the past, Arkansas teams have ended Tulsa’s undefeated season, but this is the weakest bunch of Hogs during this 16-game winning streak over Tulsa.
Boise State has a minor trap game at New Mexico State. The Aggies lost unexpectedly last week to Idaho and need a big win to stay in contention for a bowl. Two years ago, an undefeated Boise team went into Las Cruces, and escaped with a win over a rebuilding NMSU team.
Ball State is the only team in this group of four guaranteed to be undefeated next week. The Cardinals have a bye week before taking on Northern Illinois in Muncie next Wednesday night. BSU must still play at Central Michigan and at home with Western Michigan, so they have a tough finish.
The PiRate Top 25 is different from the polls. I do not rank the teams based on what they have done to date. These teams are rated on how I think they will perform in the future (predictive ratings).
PiRate Ratings
|
NCAA Top 25 For 28-Oct-2008 |
||||
|
Rank |
Team |
PiRate |
Won |
Lost |
|
1 |
Florida |
131 |
6 |
1 |
|
2 |
Southern Cal |
130 |
6 |
1 |
|
3 |
Texas |
129 |
8 |
0 |
|
4 |
Penn St. |
127 |
9 |
0 |
|
5 |
Oklahoma |
124 |
7 |
1 |
|
6 |
Georgia |
124 |
7 |
1 |
|
7 |
Missouri |
123 |
6 |
2 |
|
8 |
Ohio St. |
123 |
7 |
2 |
|
9 |
Alabama |
121 |
8 |
0 |
|
10 |
Oklahoma St. |
120 |
7 |
1 |
|
11 |
Texas Tech |
120 |
8 |
0 |
|
12 |
T C U |
116 |
8 |
1 |
|
13 |
Oregon |
116 |
6 |
2 |
|
14 |
Utah |
114 |
8 |
0 |
|
15 |
Oregon State |
114 |
4 |
3 |
|
16 |
South Carolina |
113 |
5 |
3 |
|
17 |
L S U |
113 |
5 |
2 |
|
18 |
South Florida |
113 |
6 |
2 |
|
19 |
Arizona |
113 |
5 |
3 |
|
20 |
Boise State |
112 |
7 |
0 |
|
21 |
Iowa |
111 |
5 |
3 |
|
22 |
California |
111 |
5 |
2 |
|
23 |
Ball State |
111 |
8 |
0 |
|
24 |
Florida State |
110 |
6 |
1 |
|
25 |
West Virginia |
110 |
5 |
2 |
|
|
|
|||
|
Note: Ratings rounded to nearest whole number |
||||
|
even though I rank them to two decimal points |
||||
PiRate Ratings by Conference
|
Atlantic Coast Conference |
|||||
| Atlantic Division |
|
|
|
||
| Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
| Florida State |
3-1 |
6-1 |
110 |
69 |
41 |
| Clemson |
1-3 |
3-4 |
108 |
65 |
43 |
| Maryland |
3-1 |
6-2 |
105 |
65 |
40 |
| Boston College |
2-2 |
5-2 |
103 |
64 |
39 |
| Wake Forest |
2-2 |
4-3 |
103 |
55 |
48 |
| North Carolina State |
0-4 |
2-6 |
94 |
64 |
30 |
|
|
|
|
|||
| Coastal Division |
|
|
|
||
| Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
| North Carolina |
2-2 |
6-2 |
108 |
69 |
39 |
| Virginia Tech |
2-2 |
5-3 |
107 |
67 |
40 |
| Miami |
2-2 |
5-3 |
104 |
61 |
43 |
| Georgia Tech |
3-2 |
6-2 |
103 |
63 |
40 |
| Virginia |
3-1 |
5-3 |
102 |
59 |
43 |
| Duke |
1-2 |
4-3 |
97 |
62 |
35 |
|
Big East Conference |
|||||
|
|
|
|
|||
| Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
| South Florida |
1-2 |
6-2 |
113 |
71 |
42 |
| West Virginia |
2-0 |
5-2 |
110 |
67 |
43 |
| Rutgers |
2-2 |
3-5 |
108 |
65 |
43 |
| Connecticut |
2-1 |
6-2 |
107 |
66 |
41 |
| Pittsburgh |
2-1 |
5-2 |
105 |
63 |
42 |
| Cincinnati |
1-1 |
5-2 |
105 |
63 |
42 |
| Louisville |
1-1 |
5-2 |
103 |
63 |
40 |
| Syracuse |
0-3 |
1-6 |
84 |
53 |
31 |
|
Big Ten |
|||||
| Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
| Penn State |
5-0 |
9-0 |
127 |
76 |
51 |
| Ohio State |
4-1 |
7-2 |
123 |
68 |
55 |
| Iowa |
2-2 |
5-3 |
111 |
70 |
41 |
| Wisconsin |
1-4 |
4-4 |
107 |
69 |
38 |
| Illinois |
2-3 |
4-4 |
107 |
68 |
39 |
| Michigan State |
4-1 |
7-2 |
106 |
64 |
42 |
| Minnesota |
3-1 |
7-1 |
105 |
66 |
39 |
| Northwestern |
2-2 |
6-2 |
99 |
63 |
36 |
| Purdue |
0-4 |
2-6 |
97 |
63 |
34 |
| Michigan |
1-3 |
2-6 |
95 |
58 |
37 |
| Indiana |
1-4 |
3-5 |
87 |
57 |
30 |
|
Big 12 |
|||||
| North Division | |||||
| Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
| Missouri |
2-2 |
6-2 |
123 |
76 |
47 |
| Kansas |
2-2 |
5-3 |
108 |
65 |
43 |
| Nebraska |
2-2 |
5-3 |
105 |
65 |
40 |
| Kansas State |
1-3 |
4-4 |
99 |
68 |
31 |
| Colorado |
1-3 |
4-4 |
95 |
57 |
38 |
| Iowa State |
0-4 |
2-6 |
85 |
56 |
29 |
| South Division | |||||
| Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
| Texas |
4-0 |
8-0 |
129 |
81 |
48 |
| Oklahoma |
3-1 |
7-1 |
124 |
83 |
41 |
| Oklahoma State |
3-1 |
7-1 |
120 |
71 |
49 |
| Texas Tech |
4-0 |
8-0 |
120 |
82 |
38 |
| Baylor |
1-3 |
3-5 |
97 |
62 |
35 |
| Texas A&M |
1-3 |
3-5 |
92 |
57 |
35 |
|
Conference USA |
|||||
| East Division | |||||
| Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
| East Carolina |
2-1 |
4-3 |
98 |
63 |
35 |
| Central Florida |
1-2 |
2-5 |
89 |
50 |
39 |
| Marshall |
2-1 |
3-4 |
90 |
56 |
34 |
| Memphis |
2-3 |
4-5 |
90 |
60 |
30 |
| Southern Miss. |
0-4 |
2-6 |
88 |
60 |
28 |
| U A B |
1-3 |
2-6 |
84 |
52 |
32 |
| West Division | |||||
| Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
| Tulsa |
5-0 |
8-0 |
109 |
74 |
35 |
| Houston |
3-0 |
4-3 |
95 |
63 |
32 |
| Rice |
4-1 |
5-3 |
91 |
62 |
29 |
| Tulane |
1-3 |
2-5 |
83 |
56 |
27 |
| U T E P |
3-1 |
3-4 |
83 |
56 |
27 |
| S M U |
0-5 |
1-8 |
81 |
59 |
22 |
|
Independents |
|||||
| Team |
|
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
| Notre Dame |
5-2 |
107 |
64 |
43 |
|
| Navy |
5-3 |
98 |
60 |
38 |
|
| Army |
3-5 |
86 |
50 |
36 |
|
|
Mid American Conference |
|||||
| East Division | |||||
| Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
| Buffalo |
1-2 |
3-4 |
95 |
63 |
32 |
| Temple |
2-3 |
3-5 |
95 |
56 |
39 |
| Bowling Green |
1-3 |
3-5 |
95 |
64 |
31 |
| Ohio U |
1-3 |
2-6 |
92 |
52 |
40 |
| Akron |
2-2 |
4-4 |
91 |
60 |
31 |
| Kent State |
1-3 |
2-6 |
90 |
59 |
31 |
| Miami (O) |
1-3 |
2-6 |
87 |
57 |
30 |
| West Division | |||||
| Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
| Ball State |
4-0 |
8-0 |
110 |
71 |
39 |
| Northern Illinois |
4-1 |
5-3 |
101 |
61 |
40 |
| Central Michigan |
5-0 |
6-2 |
99 |
66 |
33 |
| Western Michigan |
4-1 |
6-2 |
99 |
64 |
35 |
| Toledo |
1-3 |
2-6 |
88 |
56 |
32 |
| Eastern Michigan |
1-4 |
2-7 |
84 |
53 |
31 |
|
Mountain West Conference |
|||||
| Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
| T C U |
5-0 |
8-1 |
116 |
66 |
50 |
| Utah |
4-0 |
8-0 |
114 |
69 |
45 |
| Brigham Young |
3-1 |
7-1 |
108 |
66 |
42 |
| Air Force |
4-1 |
6-2 |
97 |
58 |
39 |
| New Mexico |
2-3 |
4-5 |
97 |
60 |
37 |
| UNLV |
0-4 |
3-5 |
90 |
59 |
31 |
| Colorado State |
2-2 |
4-4 |
89 |
57 |
32 |
| Wyoming |
0-5 |
2-6 |
80 |
51 |
29 |
| San Diego State |
0-4 |
1-7 |
75 |
49 |
26 |
|
Pac-10 Conference |
|||||
| Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
| Southern Cal |
4-1 |
6-1 |
130 |
72 |
58 |
| Oregon |
4-1 |
6-2 |
116 |
72 |
44 |
| Oregon State |
3-1 |
4-3 |
114 |
75 |
39 |
| Arizona |
3-2 |
5-3 |
113 |
73 |
40 |
| California |
3-1 |
5-2 |
111 |
71 |
40 |
| Stanford |
3-2 |
4-4 |
104 |
63 |
41 |
| Arizona State |
1-3 |
2-5 |
104 |
64 |
40 |
| U C L A |
2-3 |
3-5 |
101 |
59 |
42 |
| Washington |
0-4 |
0-7 |
89 |
58 |
31 |
| Washington State |
0-5 |
1-7 |
75 |
49 |
26 |
|
Southeastern Conference |
|||||
| East Division | |||||
| Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
| Florida |
4-1 |
6-1 |
131 |
82 |
49 |
| Georgia |
4-1 |
7-1 |
124 |
75 |
49 |
| South Carolina |
2-3 |
5-3 |
113 |
67 |
46 |
| Tennessee |
1-4 |
3-5 |
109 |
65 |
44 |
| Kentucky |
1-3 |
5-3 |
105 |
62 |
43 |
| Vanderbilt |
3-2 |
5-3 |
104 |
58 |
46 |
| West Division | |||||
| Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
| Alabama |
5-0 |
8-0 |
121 |
69 |
52 |
| L S U |
3-2 |
6-2 |
113 |
72 |
41 |
| Ole Miss |
2-3 |
4-4 |
109 |
67 |
42 |
| Auburn |
2-3 |
4-4 |
106 |
59 |
47 |
| Mississippi State |
1-3 |
3-5 |
102 |
57 |
45 |
| Arkansas |
1-4 |
2-6 |
100 |
67 |
33 |
|
Sunbelt Conference |
|||||
| Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
| Troy |
4-0 |
6-2 |
100 |
65 |
35 |
| Louisiana-Lafayette |
3-0 |
4-3 |
93 |
65 |
28 |
| Florida International |
2-1 |
3-4 |
90 |
57 |
33 |
| Florida Atlantic |
1-2 |
3-5 |
90 |
60 |
30 |
| Arkansas State |
2-1 |
4-3 |
89 |
59 |
30 |
| Middle Tennessee |
1-3 |
2-6 |
88 |
56 |
32 |
| Louisiana-Monroe |
1-3 |
2-6 |
85 |
54 |
31 |
| * Western Kentucky |
0-0 |
2-6 |
85 |
52 |
33 |
| North Texas |
0-4 |
0-8 |
69 |
52 |
17 |
| * Western Kentucky will become eligible in 2009 | |||||
| Their games will not count in the SBC Standings in 2008 | |||||
|
Western Athletic Conference |
|||||
| Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
| Boise State |
3-0 |
7-0 |
112 |
70 |
42 |
| Fresno State |
2-1 |
5-2 |
99 |
67 |
32 |
| Nevada |
2-2 |
4-4 |
96 |
69 |
27 |
| San Jose State |
3-1 |
5-3 |
95 |
58 |
37 |
| Hawaii |
3-2 |
4-4 |
93 |
55 |
38 |
| Louisiana Tech |
1-2 |
3-4 |
89 |
53 |
36 |
| Utah State |
1-3 |
1-7 |
83 |
52 |
31 |
| New Mexico State |
1-2 |
3-4 |
82 |
52 |
30 |
| Idaho |
1-4 |
2-7 |
73 |
57 |
16 |
|
This Week’s Games–PiRate Ratings |
|||
| Home Team in CAPS | (N) Denotes Neutral Site |
|
|
|
|
|
||
| Tuesday, October 28 |
|
|
|
| Favorite | Underdog |
Pred. Spread |
Approx. Score |
| OHIO U | Buffalo |
0 |
23-23 to OT |
| Houston | MARSHALL |
2 |
28-26 |
|
|
|
||
| Thursday, October 30 |
|
|
|
| Favorite | Underdog |
Pred. Spread |
Approx. Score |
| South Florida | CINCINNATI |
5 |
28-23 |
|
|
|
||
| Saturday, November 1 |
|
|
|
| Favorite | Underdog |
Pred. Spread |
Approx. Score |
| MINNESOTA | Northwestern |
9 |
30-21 |
| MICHIGAN STATE | Wisconsin |
2 |
28-26 |
| CONNECTICUT | West Virginia |
0 |
24-24 to OT |
| Central Michigan | INDIANA |
9 |
35-26 |
| VIRGINIA | Miami (Fl) |
1 |
17-16 |
| Air Force | ARMY |
8 |
21-13 |
| PURDUE | Michigan |
5 |
27-22 |
| OLE MISS | Auburn |
6 |
20-14 |
| KANSAS | Kansas State |
12 |
35-23 |
| Tulsa | ARKANSAS |
6 |
41-35 |
| BOWLING GREEN | Kent State |
8 |
35-27 |
| TEXAS A&M | Colorado |
0 |
21-21 to OT |
| WESTERN MICHIGAN | Eastern Michigan |
16 |
35-19 |
| WYOMING | San Diego State |
8 |
28-20 |
| NOTRE DAME | Pittsburgh |
5 |
24-19 |
| MISSISSIPPI STATE | Kentucky |
0 |
14-14 to OT |
| Fresno State | LOUISIANA TECH |
7 |
31-24 |
| ALABAMA | Arkansas State |
35 |
42-7 |
| Missouri | BAYLOR |
23 |
40-17 |
| Hawaii | UTAH STATE |
6 |
24-18 |
| Florida-n (Jacksonville) | Georgia |
7 |
31-24 |
| OKLAHOMA STATE | Iowa State |
38 |
45-7 |
| Florida State | GEORGIA TECH |
4 |
28-24 |
| Oregon | CALIFORNIA |
2 |
32-30 |
| Clemson | BOSTON COLLEGE |
2 |
24-22 |
| WAKE FOREST | Duke |
9 |
23-14 |
| Iowa | ILLINOIS |
1 |
31-30 |
| NAVY | Temple |
6 |
23-17 |
| WESTERN KY. | North Texas |
19 |
35-16 |
| STANFORD | Washington State |
32 |
38-6 |
| San Jose State | IDAHO |
19 |
40-21 |
| UL-LAFAYETTE | Florida International |
6 |
34-28 |
| Brigham Young | COLORADO STATE |
16 |
33-17 |
| SOUTHERN CAL | Washington |
44 |
44-0 |
| Boise State | NEW MEXICO STATE |
27 |
40-13 |
| Louisville | SYRACUSE |
16 |
30-14 |
| Troy | UL-MONROE |
12 |
33-21 |
| SOUTH CAROLINA | Tennessee |
7 |
24-17 |
| Texas | TEXAS TECH |
6 |
41-35 |
| OKLAHOMA | Nebraska |
22 |
45-23 |
| T c u | U N L V |
23 |
32-9 |
| L S U | Tulane |
33 |
47-14 |
| SOUTHERN MISS. | U a b |
7 |
31-24 |
| Rice | U T E P |
5 |
35-30 |
| Utah | NEW MEXICO |
14 |
31-17 |
| OREGON STATE | Arizona State |
13 |
37-24 |
|
|
|
||
| Sunday, November 2 |
|
|
|
| Favorite | Underdog |
Pred. Spread |
Approx. Score |
| East Carolina | CENTRAL FLORIDA |
4 |
24-20 |
|
This Week’s Games–Mean Ratings |
||
| Home Team in CAPS | (N) Denotes Neutral Site |
|
| Tuesday, October 28 |
|
|
| Favorite | Underdog |
Predicted Score |
| Buffalo | OHIO U |
24-23 |
| Houston | MARSHALL |
30-21 |
|
|
||
| Thursday, October 30 |
|
|
| Favorite | Underdog |
Predicted Score |
| CINCINNATI | South Florida |
20-20 to OT |
|
|
||
| Saturday, November 1 |
|
|
| Favorite | Underdog |
Predicted Score |
| MINNESOTA | Northwestern |
35-27 |
| MICHIGAN STATE | Wisconsin |
30-21 |
| CONNECTICUT | West Virginia |
27-23 |
| Central Michigan | INDIANA |
24-21 |
| VIRGINIA | Miami (Fl) |
17-13 |
| Air Force | ARMY |
24-10 |
| PURDUE | Michigan |
20-13 |
| OLE MISS | Auburn |
17-10 |
| KANSAS | Kansas State |
38-28 |
| Tulsa | ARKANSAS |
42-33 |
| BOWLING GREEN | Kent State |
28-17 |
| Colorado | TEXAS A&M |
24-22 |
| WESTERN MICHIGAN | Eastern Michigan |
35-16 |
| WYOMING | San Diego State |
20-16 |
| NOTRE DAME | Pittsburgh |
28-24 |
| Kentucky | MISSISSIPPI STATE |
13-7 |
| Fresno State | LOUISIANA TECH |
34-27 |
| ALABAMA | Arkansas State |
32-3 |
| Missouri | BAYLOR |
42-24 |
| Hawaii | UTAH STATE |
27-14 |
| Florida (Jacksonville) | Georgia |
30-27 |
| OKLAHOMA STATE | Iowa State |
49-14 |
| GEORGIA TECH | Florida State |
18-17 |
| CALIFORNIA | Oregon |
35-34 |
| BOSTON COLLEGE | Clemson |
24-14 |
| WAKE FOREST | Duke |
17-13 |
| ILLINOIS | Iowa |
28-28 to OT |
| NAVY | Temple |
33-21 |
| WESTERN KY. | North Texas |
44-27 |
| STANFORD | Washington State |
37-14 |
| San Jose State | IDAHO |
31-12 |
| UL-LAFAYETTE | Florida International |
28-23 |
| Brigham Young | COLORADO STATE |
26-13 |
| SOUTHERN CAL | Washington |
45-6 |
| Boise State | NEW MEXICO STATE |
40-17 |
| Louisville | SYRACUSE |
31-17 |
| Troy | UL-MONROE |
30-14 |
| SOUTH CAROLINA | Tennessee |
20-14 |
| Texas | TEXAS TECH |
38-32 |
| OKLAHOMA | Nebraska |
45-27 |
| T c u | U N L V |
27-7 |
| L S U | Tulane |
37-10 |
| SOUTHERN MISS. | U a b |
35-26 |
| Rice | U T E P |
41-38 |
| Utah | NEW MEXICO |
28-14 |
| OREGON STATE | Arizona State |
40-24 |
|
|
||
| Sunday, November 2 |
|
|
| Favorite | Underdog |
Predicted Score |
| East Carolina | CENTRAL FLORIDA |
24-17 |
Bowl Outlook by Conference
Last week’s games smoothed out the bowl outlooks. Only a few games actually affected which teams are in and which teams are out, but it greatly affected the predicted destinations. By Monday, the bowl picture should be much clearer thanks to some key games.
ACC
Virginia was in the same shape as Washington State a few weeks into the season, and the Cavaliers have improved by 20 points since then. They actually control their own destiny in the Coastal Division. I don’t think they will run the table. In fact, the Coastal Division might end up in a four-way tie for first at 5-3.
Florida State and Maryland have played well as of late, and their contest should decide the Atlantic Division title. Wake Forest has dropped out of contention.
1. Orange Bowl-Florida State 10-3 vs. Connecticut
2. Chick-fil-a-North Carolina 9-3 vs. Ole Miss
3. Gator-Virginia Tech 8-4 vs. Missouri
4. Champs Sports-Maryland 8-4 vs. Wisconsin
5. Music City-Miami 8-5 vs. Tennessee
6. Meineke Car Care-Wake Forest 8-4 vs. West Virginia
7. Eagle Bank-Boston College 8-4 vs. Navy
8. Emerald-Virginia 7-5 vs. California
9. Humanitarian-Georgia Tech 7-5 vs. Boise State
Big East
West Virginia is back on top in the Big East, but that might not be for long. The PiRates believe they will fall at Connecticut this weekend, giving the Huskies control in the league. Pittsburgh and South Florida may have played themselves out of contention last week.
1. Orange-Connecticut 9-3 vs. Florida State
2. Sun-Notre Dame 8-4 vs. Arizona (Notre Dame is part of Big East Bowl Alliance-They can go to the Gator or Sun Bowl in place of a Big East Team)
3. St. Petersburg-South Florida 8-4 vs. East Carolina
4. Meineke Car Care-West Virginia 8-4 vs. Wake Forest
5. International-Louisville 8-4 vs. Northern Illinois
6. Papa John’s-Cincinnati 8-5 vs. Florida International
7. Hawaii (at-large)-Pittsburgh 6-6 vs. Hawaii
Big Ten
Penn State now has a clear path to the National Championship Game. They have the easiest closing schedule of the top three unbeaten teams. They still must win at Iowa and at home against Michigan State, but they don’t have a conference championship game to worry about. Alabama and Texas both have tougher finishing schedules, and one or both of them should lose a game. Ohio State is out of the national title picture, but if they win out, the Buckeyes will garner an at-large BCS Bowl bid.
1. BCS National Championship-Penn State 12-0 vs. Texas
2. Fiesta-Ohio State 10-2 vs. Alabama
3. Capital One-Minnesota 10-2 vs. Georgia
4. Outback-Michigan State 9-3 vs. South Carolina
5. Champs Sports-Wisconsin 7-5 vs. Maryland
6. Alamo-Northwestern 7-5 vs. Nebraska
7. Insight-Iowa 6-6 vs. Kansas State
8. Motor City-Illinois 6-6 vs. Ball State
Big 12
If Texas Tech beats Texas and then loses to Oklahoma, it will throw a big monkey wrench into the bowl projections. For now, the PiRates are predicting the Longhorns to win out and make it to the big game for the second time in the last four seasons. Oklahoma falls back into the fold thanks to Penn State’s win at Ohio State.
1. National Championship Game-Texas 13-0 vs. Penn State
2. Rose-Oklahoma 10-2 vs. Southern Cal
3. Cotton-Texas Tech 10-2 vs. LSU
4. Gator-Missouri 10-3 vs. Virginia Tech
5. Holiday-Oklahoma State 10-2 vs. Oregon
6. Alamo-Nebraska 7-5 vs. Northwestern
7. Insight-Kansas State 6-6 vs. Iowa
8. Independence-Colorado 6-6 vs. Louisiana-Lafayette
9. Texas-Kansas 6-6 vs. Memphis
C-USA
Tulsa’s offense may be as potent as any BCS power. If they knock off Arkansas, as the PiRates believe, they should run the table and emerge from the Conference Championship Game at 13-0. It may not be enough to get the Golden Hurricane a golden ticket to a BCS Bowl. The Liberty Bowl would be an unacceptable award for a team that would finish in the top 15 at 13-0, but until I hear news about bowl deals, that is where I have to slot them.
1. Liberty-Tulsa 13-0 vs. Kentucky
2. St. Petersburg-East Carolina 8-5 vs. South Florida
3. G M A C-Houston 7-5 vs. Central Michigan
4. Armed Forces-Rice 8-4 vs. UNLV
5. Texas-Memphis 7-5 vs. Kansas
6. New Orleans-No eligible team available
Independent
Wins over Pittsburgh and Boston College will give Notre Dame enough on their resume to earn the second Big East Bowl invitation. Navy needs only to win one more game, and the Midshipmen will earn a bid to the new Eagle Bank Bowl in Washington, D.C. If Army were to beat both Air Force and Rice, while Navy loses to Temple, Notre Dame, and Northern Illinois, then the Army-Navy game would be for the Eagle Bank Bowl bid.
1. Sun-Notre Dame 8-4 vs. Arizona
2. Eagle Bank-Navy 7-5 vs. Boston College
M A C
Ball State must still play the three other tough MAC teams, so I don’t think the Cardinals can run the table. However, they should win the MAC title. Because more than three MAC teams will win seven or more games, this league will benefit with extra bids to bowls that cannot select teams from the conferences which with they have alliances.
1. Motor City-Ball State 12-1 vs. Illinois
2. International-Northern Illinois 8-4 vs. Louisville
3. G M A C-Central Michigan 9-3 vs. Houston
4. New Orleans (at-large)-Western Michigan 8-4 vs. Troy
Mountain West
Utah controls their own destiny. If they win out, they will finish with a higher BCS rating than any other undefeated non-BCS team. The Utes have three difficult games left with a trip to New Mexico plus home tilts with TCU and BYU. If they finish 12-0, they will rank in the top 7 nationally. UNLV sits at 3-5 today, but the Rebels have a favorable closing schedule. They will probably lose to TCU this week, but they can beat New Mexico, Wyoming, and San Diego State. The game in Vegas with New Mexico next week will be a bowl eliminator. The winner will pick up the final bowl bid, which will increase by one thanks to Utah getting a BCS at-large bowl bid.
1. Sugar-Utah 12-0 vs. Florida
2. Las Vegas-TCU 10-2 vs. Oregon State
3. Poinsettia-Air Force 9-3 vs. Fresno State
4. New Mexico-BYU 9-3 vs. San Jose State
5. Armed Forces-UNLV 6-6 vs. Rice
Pac-10
Oregon State must lose a game before Southern Cal can win the Pac-10 title and automatic BCS bid. If the Beavers win out, they will be in Pasadena for the first time in 44 years. Nothing is certain in the wacky Pac-10, and USC could even stub their toes again. Oregon State’s closing schedule is: Arizona State, at UCLA, Cal, at Arizona, and Oregon. The Beavers will not run the table against this group. They will be lucky to go 4-1. Stanford, Arizona State, and UCLA will not get to the magical six-win figure, and that means this conference will fall two teams short in their bowl commitments.
1. Rose-Southern Cal 11-1 vs. Oklahoma
2. Holiday-Oregon 9-3 vs. Oklahoma State
3. Sun-Arizona 8-4 vs. Notre Dame
4. Las Vegas-Oregon State 8-4 vs. TCU
5. Emerald-California 7-5 vs. Virginia
6. Poinsettia-No eligible team available
7. Hawaii-No eligible team available
S E C
Alabama still has to beat LSU, Auburn, and either Florida or Georgia in the SEC Championship to get to the National Championship Game. I just don’t see them running the table. In fact, I have Florida rated 10 points ahead of them on a neutral field. This Gators team is actually better than the one that won the national title two years ago, but they will need three undefeated teams to lose (one must lose this week) before they can get to the title game.
Vanderbilt’s loss at home to Duke means the Commodores are more than likely headed to a 5-7 record. The game with Kentucky in Lexington on November 15 will probably be a bowl eliminator for both teams. The Wildcats have beaten the Commodores four times in a row.
Ole Miss is now a strong bowl candidate. The Rebels should knock off Auburn this week and Louisiana Monroe in their next game to earn their sixth win. Don’t be surprised if they scare the daylights out of LSU on November 22.
1. Sugar-Florida 12-1 vs. Utah
2. Fiesta-Alabama 12-1 vs. Ohio State
3. Capital One-Georgia 10-2 vs. Minnesota
4. Outback-South Carolina 8-4 vs. Michigan State
5. Cotton-L S U 9-3 vs. Texas Tech
6. Chick-fil-a-Ole Miss 7-5 vs. North Carolina
7. Music City-Tennessee 6-6 vs. Miami (Fl)
8. Liberty-Kentucky 6-6 vs. Tulsa
9. Independence-No eligible team available
10. Papa John’s-No eligible team available
Sunbelt
Troy is in great shape to win the league and earn the lone automatic bowl bid, but two more teams could gain at-large bids to bowls that cannot meet their obligations. Florida International and Louisiana-Lafayette have the best shots at getting to 7-5 and having precedence over all the 6-6 BCS conference teams.
1. New Orleans-Troy 10-2 vs. Western Michigan
2. Papa John’s (at-large)-Fla. International 7-5 vs. Cincinnati
3. Independence (at-large)-UL-Lafayette 7-5 vs. Colorado
W A C
I think a 12-0 Boise State and 12-0 Utah bowl game would be one of the most exciting possible games, but it isn’t going to happen. It’s not because both teams won’t go 12-0, it’s because Boise State will not get a BCS at-large bid if Utah wins out. It would be a lousy game for a 12-0 Bronco team to be forced to play a bowl game at home against a mediocre ACC team. Boise State would probably come out flat, and the game would be close or a loss for the Broncos, which would allow supporters of the BCS BS to claim their system proved it’s worth and Boise State showed they didn’t belong in a big bowl game.
1. Humanitarian-Boise State 12-0 vs. Georgia Tech
2. New Mexico-San Jose State 9-3 vs. BYU
3. Hawaii-Hawaii 8-5 vs. Pittsburgh
4. Poinsettia (at-large)-Fresno State 8-4 vs. Air Force
