The Pi-Rate Ratings

October 28, 2008

PiRate Ratings For College Football–Week of: October 28-November 2, 2008

NCAA Week Ten: Gunfight At The Lubbock Corral

 

Doc Holliday Brown and Ike Clanton Leach will meet at the corral in Lubbock this weekend, and the shootout will begin.  This one may get the same amount of press coverage as that other shootout 127 years ago in Tombstone, Arizona.

 

This is the last major hurdle for Texas until the Big 12 Championship rematch with Missouri, but it will be difficult winning a fourth consecutive conference game over a Top 10 team.  Unlike the other three, they will have to do it in hostile territory.

 

Penn State and Alabama won big on rivals’ turf last week.  The Nittany Lions get a week off before heading to Iowa on November 8, while the Tide get a homecoming breather with Arkansas State before playing at LSU on the eighth.

 

The chase for the non-BCS at-large berth continues in full this week.  Utah, Boise State, Ball State, and Tulsa remain undefeated.  Utah has a possible trap game at New Mexico. 

 

Tulsa has their toughest game of the season at Arkansas, and the Golden Hurricane have not beaten the Razorbacks since 1976.  Twice in the past, Arkansas teams have ended Tulsa’s undefeated season, but this is the weakest bunch of Hogs during this 16-game winning streak over Tulsa.

 

Boise State has a minor trap game at New Mexico State.  The Aggies lost unexpectedly last week to Idaho and need a big win to stay in contention for a bowl.  Two years ago, an undefeated Boise team went into Las Cruces, and escaped with a win over a rebuilding NMSU team.

 

Ball State is the only team in this group of four guaranteed to be undefeated next week.  The Cardinals have a bye week before taking on Northern Illinois in Muncie next Wednesday night.  BSU must still play at Central Michigan and at home with Western Michigan, so they have a tough finish.

 

The PiRate Top 25 is different from the polls.  I do not rank the teams based on what they have done to date.  These teams are rated on how I think they will perform in the future (predictive ratings).

 

PiRate Ratings

NCAA Top 25 For 28-Oct-2008

Rank

Team

PiRate

Won

Lost

1

Florida 

131

6

1

2

Southern Cal

130

6

1

3

Texas

129

8

0

4

Penn St.

127

9

0

5

Oklahoma

124

7

1

6

Georgia 

124

7

1

7

Missouri

123

6

2

8

Ohio St.

123

7

2

9

Alabama

121

8

0

10

Oklahoma St.

120

7

1

11

Texas Tech

120

8

0

12

T C U

116

8

1

13

Oregon

116

6

2

14

Utah

114

8

0

15

Oregon State

114

4

3

16

South Carolina

113

5

3

17

L S U

113

5

2

18

South Florida

113

6

2

19

Arizona

113

5

3

20

Boise State

112

7

0

21

Iowa

111

5

3

22

California

111

5

2

23

Ball State

111

8

0

24

Florida State

110

6

1

25

West Virginia

110

5

2

     

 

 

Note: Ratings rounded to nearest whole number

even though I rank them to two decimal points

 

 

PiRate Ratings by Conference

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

 

 

 

   
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Florida State

3-1

6-1

110

69

41

Clemson

1-3

3-4

108

65

43

Maryland

3-1

6-2

105

65

40

Boston College

2-2

5-2

103

64

39

Wake Forest

2-2

4-3

103

55

48

North Carolina State

0-4

2-6

94

64

30

 

 

 

 

   
Coastal Division

 

 

 

   
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

North Carolina

2-2

6-2

108

69

39

Virginia Tech

2-2

5-3

107

67

40

Miami

2-2

5-3

104

61

43

Georgia Tech

3-2

6-2

103

63

40

Virginia 

3-1

5-3

102

59

43

Duke

1-2

4-3

97

62

35

 

Big East Conference

 

 

 

 

   
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

South Florida

1-2

6-2

113

71

42

West Virginia

2-0

5-2

110

67

43

Rutgers

2-2

3-5

108

65

43

Connecticut

2-1

6-2

107

66

41

Pittsburgh

2-1

5-2

105

63

42

Cincinnati

1-1

5-2

105

63

42

Louisville

1-1

5-2

103

63

40

Syracuse

0-3

1-6

84

53

31

 

Big Ten

           
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Penn State

5-0

9-0

127

76

51

Ohio State

4-1

7-2

123

68

55

Iowa

2-2

5-3

111

70

41

Wisconsin

1-4

4-4

107

69

38

Illinois

2-3

4-4

107

68

39

Michigan State

4-1

7-2

106

64

42

Minnesota

3-1

7-1

105

66

39

Northwestern

2-2

6-2

99

63

36

Purdue

0-4

2-6

97

63

34

Michigan

1-3

2-6

95

58

37

Indiana

1-4

3-5

87

57

30

 

Big 12

North Division          
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Missouri

2-2

6-2

123

76

47

Kansas

2-2

5-3

108

65

43

Nebraska

2-2

5-3

105

65

40

Kansas State

1-3

4-4

99

68

31

Colorado

1-3

4-4

95

57

38

Iowa State

0-4

2-6

85

56

29

South Division          
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Texas

4-0

8-0

129

81

48

Oklahoma

3-1

7-1

124

83

41

Oklahoma State

3-1

7-1

120

71

49

Texas Tech

4-0

8-0

120

82

38

Baylor

1-3

3-5

97

62

35

Texas A&M

1-3

3-5

92

57

35

 

Conference USA

East Division          
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

East Carolina

2-1

4-3

98

63

35

Central Florida

1-2

2-5

89

50

39

Marshall

2-1

3-4

90

56

34

Memphis

2-3

4-5

90

60

30

Southern Miss.

0-4

2-6

88

60

28

U A B

1-3

2-6

84

52

32

West Division          
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Tulsa

5-0

8-0

109

74

35

Houston

3-0

4-3

95

63

32

Rice

4-1

5-3

91

62

29

Tulane

1-3

2-5

83

56

27

U T E P

3-1

3-4

83

56

27

S M U

0-5

1-8

81

59

22

 

Independents

           
Team

 

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Notre Dame  

5-2

107

64

43

Navy  

5-3

98

60

38

Army  

3-5

86

50

36

 

Mid American Conference

East Division          
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Buffalo

1-2

3-4

95

63

32

Temple

2-3

3-5

95

56

39

Bowling Green

1-3

3-5

95

64

31

Ohio U

1-3

2-6

92

52

40

Akron

2-2

4-4

91

60

31

Kent State

1-3

2-6

90

59

31

Miami (O)

1-3

2-6

87

57

30

           
West Division          
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Ball State

4-0

8-0

110

71

39

Northern Illinois

4-1

5-3

101

61

40

Central Michigan

5-0

6-2

99

66

33

Western Michigan

4-1

6-2

99

64

35

Toledo

1-3

2-6

88

56

32

Eastern Michigan

1-4

2-7

84

53

31

 

Mountain West Conference

           
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

T C U

5-0

8-1

116

66

50

Utah

4-0

8-0

114

69

45

Brigham Young

3-1

7-1

108

66

42

Air Force

4-1

6-2

97

58

39

New Mexico

2-3

4-5

97

60

37

UNLV

0-4

3-5

90

59

31

Colorado State

2-2

4-4

89

57

32

Wyoming

0-5

2-6

80

51

29

San Diego State

0-4

1-7

75

49

26

 

Pac-10 Conference

           
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Southern Cal

4-1

6-1

130

72

58

Oregon

4-1

6-2

116

72

44

Oregon State

3-1

4-3

114

75

39

Arizona

3-2

5-3

113

73

40

California

3-1

5-2

111

71

40

Stanford

3-2

4-4

104

63

41

Arizona State

1-3

2-5

104

64

40

U C L A

2-3

3-5

101

59

42

Washington

0-4

0-7

89

58

31

Washington State

0-5

1-7

75

49

26

 

Southeastern Conference

East Division          
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Florida 

4-1

6-1

131

82

49

Georgia 

4-1

7-1

124

75

49

South Carolina

2-3

5-3

113

67

46

Tennessee

1-4

3-5

109

65

44

Kentucky

1-3

5-3

105

62

43

Vanderbilt

3-2

5-3

104

58

46

West Division          
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Alabama

5-0

8-0

121

69

52

L S U

3-2

6-2

113

72

41

Ole Miss

2-3

4-4

109

67

42

Auburn

2-3

4-4

106

59

47

Mississippi State

1-3

3-5

102

57

45

Arkansas

1-4

2-6

100

67

33

 

Sunbelt Conference

           
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Troy

4-0

6-2

100

65

35

Louisiana-Lafayette

3-0

4-3

93

65

28

Florida International

2-1

3-4

90

57

33

Florida Atlantic

1-2

3-5

90

60

30

Arkansas State

2-1

4-3

89

59

30

Middle Tennessee

1-3

2-6

88

56

32

Louisiana-Monroe

1-3

2-6

85

54

31

* Western Kentucky

0-0

2-6

85

52

33

North Texas

0-4

0-8

69

52

17

           
* Western Kentucky will become eligible in 2009      
Their games will not count in the SBC Standings in 2008    

 

Western Athletic Conference

           
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Boise State

3-0

7-0

112

70

42

Fresno State

2-1

5-2

99

67

32

Nevada

2-2

4-4

96

69

27

San Jose State

3-1

5-3

95

58

37

Hawaii

3-2

4-4

93

55

38

Louisiana Tech

1-2

3-4

89

53

36

Utah State

1-3

1-7

83

52

31

New Mexico State

1-2

3-4

82

52

30

Idaho

1-4

2-7

73

57

16

 

This Week’s Games–PiRate Ratings

Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site

 

 

   

 

 

Tuesday, October 28  

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Pred. Spread

Approx. Score

OHIO U Buffalo

0

23-23 to OT

Houston MARSHALL

2

       28-26
   

 

 

Thursday, October 30  

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Pred. Spread

Approx. Score

South Florida CINCINNATI

5

28-23

   

 

 

Saturday, November 1  

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Pred. Spread

Approx. Score

MINNESOTA Northwestern

9

30-21

MICHIGAN STATE Wisconsin

2

28-26

CONNECTICUT West Virginia

0

24-24 to OT

Central Michigan INDIANA

9

35-26

VIRGINIA Miami (Fl)

1

17-16

Air Force ARMY

8

21-13

PURDUE Michigan

5

27-22

OLE MISS Auburn

6

20-14

KANSAS Kansas State

12

35-23

Tulsa ARKANSAS

6

41-35

BOWLING GREEN Kent State

8

35-27

TEXAS A&M Colorado 

0

21-21 to OT

WESTERN MICHIGAN Eastern Michigan

16

35-19

WYOMING San Diego State

8

28-20

NOTRE DAME Pittsburgh

5

24-19

MISSISSIPPI STATE Kentucky

0

14-14 to OT

Fresno State LOUISIANA TECH

7

31-24

ALABAMA Arkansas State

35

42-7

Missouri BAYLOR

23

40-17

Hawaii UTAH STATE

6

24-18

Florida-n          (Jacksonville) Georgia

7

31-24

OKLAHOMA STATE Iowa State

38

45-7

Florida State GEORGIA TECH

4

28-24

Oregon CALIFORNIA

2

32-30

Clemson BOSTON COLLEGE

2

24-22

WAKE FOREST Duke

9

23-14

Iowa ILLINOIS

1

31-30

NAVY Temple

6

23-17

WESTERN KY. North Texas

19

35-16

STANFORD Washington State

32

38-6

San Jose State IDAHO

19

40-21

UL-LAFAYETTE Florida International

6

34-28

Brigham Young COLORADO STATE

16

33-17

SOUTHERN CAL Washington 

44

44-0

Boise State NEW MEXICO STATE

27

40-13

Louisville SYRACUSE

16

30-14

Troy UL-MONROE

12

33-21

SOUTH CAROLINA Tennessee

7

24-17

Texas TEXAS TECH

6

41-35

OKLAHOMA  Nebraska

22

45-23

T c u U N L V

23

32-9

L S U Tulane

33

47-14

SOUTHERN MISS. U a b

7

31-24

Rice U T E P

5

35-30

Utah NEW MEXICO 

14

31-17

OREGON STATE Arizona State

13

37-24

   

 

 

Sunday, November 2  

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Pred. Spread

Approx. Score

East Carolina CENTRAL FLORIDA

4

24-20

 

This Week’s Games–Mean Ratings

Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site

 

Tuesday, October 28  

 

Favorite Underdog

Predicted Score

Buffalo OHIO U

24-23

Houston MARSHALL

30-21

   

 

Thursday, October 30  

 

Favorite Underdog

Predicted Score

CINCINNATI South Florida

20-20 to OT

   

 

Saturday, November 1  

 

Favorite Underdog

Predicted Score

MINNESOTA Northwestern

35-27

MICHIGAN STATE Wisconsin

30-21

CONNECTICUT West Virginia

27-23

Central Michigan INDIANA

24-21

VIRGINIA Miami (Fl)

17-13

Air Force ARMY

24-10

PURDUE Michigan

20-13

OLE MISS Auburn

17-10

KANSAS Kansas State

38-28

Tulsa ARKANSAS

42-33

BOWLING GREEN Kent State

28-17

Colorado TEXAS A&M

24-22

WESTERN MICHIGAN Eastern Michigan

35-16

WYOMING San Diego State

20-16

NOTRE DAME Pittsburgh

28-24

Kentucky MISSISSIPPI STATE

13-7

Fresno State LOUISIANA TECH

34-27

ALABAMA Arkansas State

32-3

Missouri BAYLOR

42-24

Hawaii UTAH STATE

27-14

Florida          (Jacksonville) Georgia

30-27

OKLAHOMA STATE Iowa State

49-14

GEORGIA TECH Florida State

18-17

CALIFORNIA Oregon

35-34

BOSTON COLLEGE Clemson

24-14

WAKE FOREST Duke

17-13

ILLINOIS Iowa 

28-28 to OT

NAVY Temple

33-21

WESTERN KY. North Texas

44-27

STANFORD Washington State

37-14

San Jose State IDAHO

31-12

UL-LAFAYETTE Florida International

28-23

Brigham Young COLORADO STATE

26-13

SOUTHERN CAL Washington 

45-6

Boise State NEW MEXICO STATE

40-17

Louisville SYRACUSE

31-17

Troy UL-MONROE

30-14

SOUTH CAROLINA Tennessee

20-14

Texas TEXAS TECH

38-32

OKLAHOMA  Nebraska

45-27

T c u U N L V

27-7

L S U Tulane

37-10

SOUTHERN MISS. U a b

35-26

Rice U T E P

41-38

Utah NEW MEXICO 

28-14

OREGON STATE Arizona State

40-24

   

 

Sunday, November 2  

 

Favorite Underdog

Predicted Score

East Carolina CENTRAL FLORIDA

24-17

 

Bowl Outlook by Conference

 

Last week’s games smoothed out the bowl outlooks.  Only a few games actually affected which teams are in and which teams are out, but it greatly affected the predicted destinations.  By Monday, the bowl picture should be much clearer thanks to some key games.

 

ACC

Virginia was in the same shape as Washington State a few weeks into the season, and the Cavaliers have improved by 20 points since then.  They actually control their own destiny in the Coastal Division.  I don’t think they will run the table.  In fact, the Coastal Division might end up in a four-way tie for first at 5-3.

 

Florida State and Maryland have played well as of late, and their contest should decide the Atlantic Division title.  Wake Forest has dropped out of contention.

 

1. Orange Bowl-Florida State 10-3 vs. Connecticut

2. Chick-fil-a-North Carolina 9-3 vs. Ole Miss

3. Gator-Virginia Tech 8-4 vs. Missouri

4. Champs Sports-Maryland 8-4 vs. Wisconsin

5. Music City-Miami 8-5 vs. Tennessee

6. Meineke Car Care-Wake Forest 8-4 vs. West Virginia

7. Eagle Bank-Boston College 8-4 vs. Navy

8. Emerald-Virginia 7-5 vs. California

9. Humanitarian-Georgia Tech 7-5 vs. Boise State

 

Big East

West Virginia is back on top in the Big East, but that might not be for long.  The PiRates believe they will fall at Connecticut this weekend, giving the Huskies control in the league.  Pittsburgh and South Florida may have played themselves out of contention last week.

 

1. Orange-Connecticut 9-3 vs. Florida State

2. Sun-Notre Dame 8-4 vs. Arizona (Notre Dame is part of Big East Bowl Alliance-They can go to the Gator or Sun Bowl in place of a Big East Team)

3. St. Petersburg-South Florida 8-4 vs. East Carolina

4. Meineke Car Care-West Virginia 8-4 vs. Wake Forest

5. International-Louisville 8-4 vs. Northern Illinois

6. Papa John’s-Cincinnati 8-5 vs. Florida International

7. Hawaii (at-large)-Pittsburgh 6-6 vs. Hawaii

 

Big Ten

Penn State now has a clear path to the National Championship Game.  They have the easiest closing schedule of the top three unbeaten teams.  They still must win at Iowa and at home against Michigan State, but they don’t have a conference championship game to worry about.  Alabama and Texas both have tougher finishing schedules, and one or both of them should lose a game.  Ohio State is out of the national title picture, but if they win out, the Buckeyes will garner an at-large BCS Bowl bid.

 

1. BCS National Championship-Penn State 12-0 vs. Texas

2. Fiesta-Ohio State 10-2 vs. Alabama

3. Capital One-Minnesota 10-2 vs. Georgia

4. Outback-Michigan State 9-3 vs. South Carolina

5. Champs Sports-Wisconsin 7-5 vs. Maryland

6. Alamo-Northwestern 7-5 vs. Nebraska

7. Insight-Iowa 6-6 vs. Kansas State

8. Motor City-Illinois 6-6 vs. Ball State

 

Big 12

If Texas Tech beats Texas and then loses to Oklahoma, it will throw a big monkey wrench into the bowl projections.  For now, the PiRates are predicting the Longhorns to win out and make it to the big game for the second time in the last four seasons.  Oklahoma falls back into the fold thanks to Penn State’s win at Ohio State.

 

1. National Championship Game-Texas 13-0 vs. Penn State

2. Rose-Oklahoma 10-2 vs. Southern Cal

3. Cotton-Texas Tech 10-2 vs. LSU

4. Gator-Missouri 10-3 vs. Virginia Tech

5. Holiday-Oklahoma State 10-2 vs. Oregon

6. Alamo-Nebraska 7-5 vs. Northwestern

7. Insight-Kansas State 6-6 vs. Iowa

8. Independence-Colorado 6-6 vs. Louisiana-Lafayette

9. Texas-Kansas 6-6 vs. Memphis

 

C-USA

Tulsa’s offense may be as potent as any BCS power.  If they knock off Arkansas, as the PiRates believe, they should run the table and emerge from the Conference Championship Game at 13-0.  It may not be enough to get the Golden Hurricane a golden ticket to a BCS Bowl.  The Liberty Bowl would be an unacceptable award for a team that would finish in the top 15 at 13-0, but until I hear news about bowl deals, that is where I have to slot them.

 

1. Liberty-Tulsa 13-0 vs. Kentucky

2. St. Petersburg-East Carolina 8-5 vs. South Florida

3. G M A C-Houston 7-5 vs. Central Michigan

4. Armed Forces-Rice 8-4 vs. UNLV

5. Texas-Memphis 7-5 vs. Kansas

6. New Orleans-No eligible team available

 

Independent

Wins over Pittsburgh and Boston College will give Notre Dame enough on their resume to earn the second Big East Bowl invitation.  Navy needs only to win one more game, and the Midshipmen will earn a bid to the new Eagle Bank Bowl in Washington, D.C.  If Army were to beat both Air Force and Rice, while Navy loses to Temple, Notre Dame, and Northern Illinois, then the Army-Navy game would be for the Eagle Bank Bowl bid.

 

1. Sun-Notre Dame 8-4 vs. Arizona

2. Eagle Bank-Navy 7-5 vs. Boston College

 

M A C

Ball State must still play the three other tough MAC teams, so I don’t think the Cardinals can run the table.  However, they should win the MAC title.  Because more than three MAC teams will win seven or more games, this league will benefit with extra bids to bowls that cannot select teams from the conferences which with they have alliances.

 

1. Motor City-Ball State 12-1 vs. Illinois

2. International-Northern Illinois 8-4 vs. Louisville

3. G M A C-Central Michigan 9-3 vs. Houston

4. New Orleans (at-large)-Western Michigan 8-4 vs. Troy

 

Mountain West

Utah controls their own destiny.  If they win out, they will finish with a higher BCS rating than any other undefeated non-BCS team.  The Utes have three difficult games left with a trip to New Mexico plus home tilts with TCU and BYU.  If they finish 12-0, they will rank in the top 7 nationally.  UNLV sits at 3-5 today, but the Rebels have a favorable closing schedule.  They will probably lose to TCU this week, but they can beat New Mexico, Wyoming, and San Diego State.  The game in Vegas with New Mexico next week will be a bowl eliminator.  The winner will pick up the final bowl bid, which will increase by one thanks to Utah getting a BCS at-large bowl bid.

 

1. Sugar-Utah 12-0 vs. Florida

2. Las Vegas-TCU 10-2 vs. Oregon State

3. Poinsettia-Air Force 9-3 vs. Fresno State

4. New Mexico-BYU 9-3 vs. San Jose State

5. Armed Forces-UNLV 6-6 vs. Rice

 

Pac-10

Oregon State must lose a game before Southern Cal can win the Pac-10 title and automatic BCS bid.  If the Beavers win out, they will be in Pasadena for the first time in 44 years.  Nothing is certain in the wacky Pac-10, and USC could even stub their toes again.  Oregon State’s closing schedule is: Arizona State, at UCLA, Cal, at Arizona, and Oregon.  The Beavers will not run the table against this group.  They will be lucky to go 4-1.  Stanford, Arizona State, and UCLA will not get to the magical six-win figure, and that means this conference will fall two teams short in their bowl commitments.

 

1. Rose-Southern Cal 11-1 vs. Oklahoma

2. Holiday-Oregon 9-3 vs. Oklahoma State

3. Sun-Arizona 8-4 vs. Notre Dame

4. Las Vegas-Oregon State 8-4 vs. TCU

5. Emerald-California 7-5 vs. Virginia

6. Poinsettia-No eligible team available

7. Hawaii-No eligible team available

 

S E C

Alabama still has to beat LSU, Auburn, and either Florida or Georgia in the SEC Championship to get to the National Championship Game.  I just don’t see them running the table.  In fact, I have Florida rated 10 points ahead of them on a neutral field.  This Gators team is actually better than the one that won the national title two years ago, but they will need three undefeated teams to lose (one must lose this week) before they can get to the title game.

 

Vanderbilt’s loss at home to Duke means the Commodores are more than likely headed to a 5-7 record.  The game with Kentucky in Lexington on November 15 will probably be a bowl eliminator for both teams.  The Wildcats have beaten the Commodores four times in a row. 

 

Ole Miss is now a strong bowl candidate.  The Rebels should knock off Auburn this week and Louisiana Monroe in their next game to earn their sixth win.  Don’t be surprised if they scare the daylights out of LSU on November 22.

 

1. Sugar-Florida 12-1 vs. Utah

2. Fiesta-Alabama 12-1 vs. Ohio State

3. Capital One-Georgia 10-2 vs. Minnesota

4. Outback-South Carolina 8-4 vs. Michigan State

5. Cotton-L S U 9-3 vs. Texas Tech

6. Chick-fil-a-Ole Miss 7-5 vs. North Carolina

7. Music City-Tennessee 6-6 vs. Miami (Fl)

8. Liberty-Kentucky 6-6 vs. Tulsa

9. Independence-No eligible team available

10. Papa John’s-No eligible team available

 

Sunbelt

Troy is in great shape to win the league and earn the lone automatic bowl bid, but two more teams could gain at-large bids to bowls that cannot meet their obligations.  Florida International and Louisiana-Lafayette have the best shots at getting to 7-5 and having precedence over all the 6-6 BCS conference teams.

 

1. New Orleans-Troy 10-2 vs. Western Michigan

2. Papa John’s (at-large)-Fla. International 7-5 vs. Cincinnati

3. Independence (at-large)-UL-Lafayette 7-5 vs. Colorado

 

W A C

I think a 12-0 Boise State and 12-0 Utah bowl game would be one of the most exciting possible games, but it isn’t going to happen.  It’s not because both teams won’t go 12-0, it’s because Boise State will not get a BCS at-large bid if Utah wins out.  It would be a lousy game for a 12-0 Bronco team to be forced to play a bowl game at home against a mediocre ACC team.  Boise State would probably come out flat, and the game would be close or a loss for the Broncos, which would allow supporters of the BCS BS to claim their system proved it’s worth and Boise State showed they didn’t belong in a big bowl game.

 

1. Humanitarian-Boise State 12-0 vs. Georgia Tech

2. New Mexico-San Jose State 9-3 vs. BYU

3. Hawaii-Hawaii 8-5 vs. Pittsburgh

4. Poinsettia (at-large)-Fresno State 8-4 vs. Air Force

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