The Pi-Rate Ratings

September 24, 2008

PiRate Ratings For College Football–Week of: September 25-27, 2008

NCAA Week Five: A Couple Of Top 25 Biggies

 

The fifth week of the FBS college schedule gets off to a big start Thursday night when AP/USA Today top-ranked Southern California ventures north to Corvallis, OR, to take on Oregon State.  On Saturday, there are several quality games including Alabama-Georgia, Illinois-Penn State, Oklahoma-TCU, and Michigan-Wisconsin.

 

Here are the latest PiRate Ratings.  Remember as you look at these numbers, that these are not rankings of how the teams have fared to date (like the AP, ESPN, and other polls).  These are predictive ratings trying to guess at future games after weighing how the teams have fared so far.  This is the last week that any influence from the preseason rating is included.  Beginning next week, the ratings will be 100% based on performance this season.

 

NCAA Top 25 For 23-Sep-2008

Rank

Team

PiRate

Won

Lost

1

Florida 

129

3

0

2

Southern Cal

126

2

0

3

Oklahoma

126

3

0

4

Georgia 

126

4

0

5

Missouri

124

4

0

6

Ohio St.

121

3

1

7

Penn St.

120

4

0

8

L S U

118

3

0

9

Brigham Young

118

4

0

10

South Florida

117

4

0

11

Alabama

116

4

0

12

Oregon

116

3

1

13

Texas

115

3

0

14

Auburn

115

3

1

15

Clemson

115

3

1

16

Kansas

115

3

1

17

Wisconsin

114

3

0

18

Texas Tech

114

4

0

19

South Carolina

114

2

2

20

Tennessee

113

1

2

21

Wake Forest

112

3

0

22

T C U

112

4

0

23

Utah

112

4

0

24

West Virginia

111

1

2

25

Oklahoma St.

110

3

0

 

 

 

 

 

Note: Ratings rounded to nearest whole number

even though I rank them to two decimal points

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

 

 

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Clemson

1-0

3-1

115

71

44

Wake Forest

1-0

3-0

112

64

48

Florida State

0-1

2-1

109

65

44

Maryland

0-0

3-1

104

67

37

Boston College

0-1

2-1

103

61

42

North Carolina State

0-1

2-2

94

61

33

 

 

 

 

 

 

Coastal Division

 

 

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Virginia Tech

2-0

3-1

109

67

42

North Carolina

0-1

2-1

105

68

37

Georgia Tech

1-1

3-1

102

64

38

Miami

0-0

2-1

101

59

42

Duke

0-0

2-1

96

63

33

Virginia 

0-0

1-2

91

56

35

 

Big East Conference

 

 

 

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

South Florida

0-0

4-0

117

74

43

West Virginia

0-0

1-2

111

70

41

Connecticut

0-0

4-0

108

66

42

Cincinnati

0-0

2-1

108

65

43

Pittsburgh

0-0

2-1

103

60

43

Louisville

0-0

2-1

101

62

39

Rutgers

0-0

0-3

101

61

40

Syracuse

0-0

1-3

82

53

29

 

Big Ten

 

 

 

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Ohio State

0-0

3-1

121

68

53

Penn State

0-0

4-0

120

74

46

Wisconsin

0-0

3-0

114

72

42

Michigan State

0-0

3-1

109

66

43

Illinois

0-0

2-1

104

66

38

Purdue

0-0

2-1

103

67

36

Michigan

0-0

1-2

102

61

41

Iowa

0-0

3-1

102

65

37

Minnesota

0-0

4-0

100

66

34

Northwestern

0-0

4-0

98

63

35

Indiana

0-0

2-1

94

63

31

 

Big 12

North Division

 

 

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Missouri

0-0

4-0

124

76

48

Kansas

0-0

3-1

115

66

49

Colorado

0-0

3-0

105

65

40

Nebraska

0-0

3-0

102

63

39

Kansas State

0-0

2-1

101

68

33

Iowa State

0-0

2-2

92

56

36

South Division

 

 

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Oklahoma

0-0

3-0

126

83

43

Texas

0-0

3-0

115

73

42

Texas Tech

0-0

4-0

114

75

39

Oklahoma State

0-0

3-0

110

68

42

Texas A&M

0-0

1-2

96

58

38

Baylor

0-0

2-2

94

61

33

 

Conference USA

East Division

 

 

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

East Carolina

1-0

3-1

104

64

40

Central Florida

0-0

1-2

97

54

43

Marshall

2-0

3-1

93

57

36

Southern Miss.

0-1

2-2

90

60

30

Memphis

0-2

1-3

88

58

30

U A B

0-1

1-3

83

49

34

West Division

 

 

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Tulsa

1-0

3-0

102

68

34

Tulane

0-1

1-2

92

58

34

Houston

0-0

1-3

90

57

33

Rice

2-0

2-2

87

60

27

U T E P

0-0

0-3

81

50

31

S M U

0-1

1-3

77

55

22

 

Independents

 

 

 

 

 

 

Team

 

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Notre Dame

 

2-1

100

61

39

Navy

 

2-2

94

58

36

Army

 

0-3

74

46

28

 

Mid American Conference

East Division

 

 

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Buffalo

1-0

2-2

97

63

34

Bowling Green

0-0

1-2

96

63

33

Temple

0-1

1-3

96

59

37

Ohio U

0-0

0-4

92

53

39

Miami (O)

0-0

1-3

90

58

32

Akron

0-0

2-2

88

60

28

Kent State

0-0

1-3

86

56

30

 

 

 

 

 

 

West Division

 

 

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Ball State

0-0

4-0

107

70

37

Central Michigan

0-0

2-2

99

67

32

Western Michigan

1-0

3-1

98

62

36

Toledo

1-0

1-2

95

61

34

Northern Illinois

0-1

1-2

93

59

34

Eastern Michigan

0-1

1-3

85

54

31

 

Mountain West Conference

 

 

 

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Brigham Young

0-0

4-0

118

73

45

T C U

1-0

4-0

112

65

47

Utah

2-0

4-0

112

68

44

UNLV

0-1

3-1

93

60

33

Air Force

1-1

3-1

92

55

37

Wyoming

0-2

2-2

91

55

36

New Mexico

0-1

1-3

89

58

31

Colorado State

0-0

2-1

86

56

30

San Diego State

0-0

0-3

82

51

31

 

Pac-10 Conference

 

 

 

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Southern Cal

0-0

2-0

126

71

55

Oregon

1-0

3-1

116

69

47

Arizona State

1-0

2-2

110

67

43

California

1-0

2-1

109

68

41

Arizona

1-0

3-1

108

70

38

Oregon State

0-1

1-2

106

70

36

Stanford

1-1

2-2

100

60

40

Washington

0-1

0-3

99

63

36

U C L A

0-1

1-2

99

58

41

Washington State

0-1

1-3

89

57

32

 

Southeastern Conference

East Division

 

 

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Florida 

1-0

3-0

129

78

51

Georgia 

1-0

4-0

126

74

52

South Carolina

0-2

2-2

114

67

47

Tennessee

0-1

1-2

113

71

42

Kentucky

0-0

3-0

108

62

46

Vanderbilt

2-0

4-0

107

63

44

West Division

 

 

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

L S U

1-0

3-0

118

72

46

Alabama

1-0

4-0

116

66

50

Auburn

1-1

3-1

115

67

48

Ole Miss

0-1

2-2

106

65

41

Mississippi State

0-1

1-3

102

57

45

Arkansas

0-1

2-1

98

67

31

 

Sunbelt Conference

 

 

 

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Troy

1-0

2-1

100

63

37

Florida Atlantic

0-0

1-3

93

62

31

Arkansas State

1-0

3-1

90

58

32

Louisiana-Monroe

0-0

1-3

89

55

34

Middle Tennessee

0-2

1-3

88

55

33

Louisiana-Lafayette

0-0

1-2

87

60

27

* Western Kentucky

0-0

2-2

85

53

32

Florida International

0-0

0-3

80

49

31

North Texas

0-0

0-3

75

52

23

 

 

 

 

 

 

* Western Kentucky will become eligible in 2009

 

 

 

Their games will not count in the SBC Standings in 2008

 

 

 

Western Athletic Conference

 

 

 

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Fresno State

0-0

2-1

108

69

39

Boise State

0-0

3-0

107

68

39

Nevada

0-0

1-2

92

63

29

Louisiana Tech

0-0

2-1

91

56

35

San Jose State

0-0

2-2

90

55

35

Hawaii

0-0

1-2

89

54

35

Utah State

1-0

1-3

83

50

33

New Mexico State

0-0

1-1

82

51

31

Idaho

0-1

1-3

75

57

18

 

 

This Week’s Games–PiRate Ratings

Home Team in CAPS

(N) Denotes Neutral Site

 

 

 

 

 

 

Thursday, September 25

 

 

 

Favorite

Underdog

Pred. Spread

Approx. Score

TULANE

S m u

17

38-21

Southern Cal

OREGON ST.

17

34-17

 

 

 

 

Friday, September 26

 

 

 

Favorite

Underdog

Pred. Spread

Approx. Score

Connecticut

LOUISVILLE

4

24-20

 

 

 

 

Saturday, September 27

 

 

 

Favorite

Underdog

Pred. Spread

Approx. Score

OHIO STATE

Minnesota

25

38-13

CLEMSON

Maryland

14

35-21

Michigan St.

INDIANA

12

33-21

DUKE

Virginia

7

28-21

Pittsburgh

SYRACUSE

18

28-10

BALL ST.

Kent St.

24

41-17

Northern Illinois

EASTERN MICHIGAN

5

28-23

North Carolina

MIAMI (FLA)

1

26-25

IOWA

Northwestern

7

31-24

FLORIDA

Ole Miss

27

41-14

TEXAS A&M

Army

26

33-7

TEMPLE

Western Michigan

Pk

24-24 to OT

MEMPHIS

Arkansas State

1

28-27

TEXAS 

Arkansas

21

42-21

Wisconsin

MICHIGAN

8

28-20

AUBURN

Tennessee

5

26-21

EAST CAROLINA

Houston

17

34-17

WEST VIRGINIA

Marshall

21

35-14

FLORIDA ST.

Colorado

8

28-20

Fresno St.

U C L A

6

27-21

NOTRE DAME

Purdue

Pk

28-28 to OT

Cincinnati

AKRON

18

35-17

KANSAS ST.

Louisiana-Lafayette

18

42-24

WAKE FOREST

Navy

21

31-20

CENTRAL MICHIGAN

Buffalo

5

35-30

Bowling Green

WYOMING

1

27-26

RICE

North Texas

15

40-25

CALIFORNIA

Colorado St.

26

40-14

Oregon

WASHINGTON ST.

24

37-13

OKLAHOMA

T c u

17

37-20

KENTUCKY

Western Kentucky

26

33-7

SOUTH CAROLINA

U a b

34

37-3

TOLEDO

Florida Int’l

18

31-13

OKLAHOMA ST.

Troy

13

34-21

L S U

Mississippi St.

20

27-7

South Florida

N. CAROLINA ST.

20

38-18

GEORGIA

Alabama

13

27-14

PENN ST.

Illinois

20

40-20

SAN DIEGO ST.

Idaho

10

34-24

Va. Tech

NEBRASKA

3

27-24

New Mexico

NEW MEXICO ST.

5

27-22

Central Florida

U T E P

13

23-10

WASHINGTON

Stanford

2

25-23

U N L V

Nevada

3

33-30

HAWAII

San Jose St.

3

23-20

 

This Week’s Games–Mean Ratings

Home Team in CAPS

(N) Denotes Neutral Site

 

 

 

 

Thursday, September 25

 

 

Favorite

Underdog

Mean Prediction

TULANE

S m u

33-17

Southern Cal

OREGON ST.

38-21

 

 

 

Friday, September 26

 

Mean Prediction

Favorite

Underdog

 

LOUISVILLE

Connecticut

24-24 to OT

 

 

 

Saturday, September 27

 

Mean Prediction

Favorite

Underdog

 

OHIO STATE

Minnesota

33-14

CLEMSON

Maryland

33-24

Michigan St.

INDIANA

28-19

DUKE

Virginia

27-27 to OT

Pittsburgh

SYRACUSE

24-10

BALL ST.

Kent St.

38-14

Northern Illinois

EASTERN MICHIGAN

26-24

MIAMI (FLA)

North Carolina

27-24

IOWA

Northwestern

20-13

FLORIDA

Ole Miss

42-13

TEXAS A&M

Army

28-0

Western Michigan

TEMPLE

26-24

Arkansas State

MEMPHIS

31-29

TEXAS 

Arkansas

42-20

Wisconsin

MICHIGAN

20-14

AUBURN

Tennessee

24-17

EAST CAROLINA

Houston

35-24

WEST VIRGINIA

Marshall

45-24

FLORIDA ST.

Colorado

21-16

Fresno St.

U C L A

20-17

NOTRE DAME

Purdue

28-28 to OT

Cincinnati

AKRON

35-20

KANSAS ST.

Louisiana-Lafayette

40-21

WAKE FOREST

Navy

35-16

CENTRAL MICHIGAN

Buffalo

24-17

WYOMING

Bowling Green

20-20 to OT

RICE

North Texas

41-24

CALIFORNIA

Colorado St.

38-14

Oregon

WASHINGTON ST.

38-17

OKLAHOMA

T c u

28-13

KENTUCKY

Western Kentucky

30-7

SOUTH CAROLINA

U a b

34-7

TOLEDO

Florida Int’l

36-17

OKLAHOMA ST.

Troy

30-17

L S U

Mississippi St.

26-0

South Florida

N. CAROLINA ST.

23-10

GEORGIA

Alabama

30-21

PENN ST.

Illinois

45-26

SAN DIEGO ST.

Idaho

42-27

NEBRASKA

Va. Tech

21-21 to OT

New Mexico

NEW MEXICO ST.

33-24

Central Florida

U T E P

21-10

WASHINGTON

Stanford

27-24

U N L V

Nevada

24-21

HAWAII

San Jose St.

37-28

 

 

Wisconsin (0-0/3-0) at Michigan (0-0/1-2)

Vegas:       Wisconsin by 6 (Over/Under 42)

PiRate:      Wisconsin by 8

Mean:        Wisconsin by 6

Strategy:   Over 32 as part of a 10-point teaser

Last week, since there was no Wisconsin game, I gave extra coverage to the Vanderbilt game.  This week, Vanderbilt is off (congrats to the guys down in the Music City for cracking the Top 25 in both polls for the first time in 24 years; what’s great is you are virtually guaranteed to stay in the polls for a second week, which has not been accomplished at Vanderbilt since the 1950’s!).  So, with Wisconsin set to open the Big 10 schedule against one of their nemeses, I will supply you with an in-depth look at this game.

 

When Michigan Runs the Ball

The Wolverines’ running attack has suffered in the new spread offense of Coach Rich Rodriguez.  This offense needs two things to be successful—an offensive line where all five blockers can occupy five defenders with reach blocks, and a quarterback who can read defenses and react appropriately.

 

Thus far, the offensive line has been responsible for about 80% of the failure of the running attack to click.  The Wolverines have been unsettled in the interior line so far, but with a week off to mend and refine their techniques, I expect the o-line to have its best showing in game four.  Look for better blocking technique, but at the same time, this will be the best defensive front they have faced this season.

 

Wisconsin’s defensive line and linebackers are tough to run against.  However, due to some issues with quickness, it is possible to break through for a long gain, as Fresno State proved two weeks ago.

 

Michigan quarterback Steven Threet and running back (super back in Michigan’s terminology) Sam McGuffie are not close in talent to Pat White and Steve Slaton, but Rodriguez believes they will get better and better as the season progresses.  Threet needs to improve more as a runner, or defenses will not respect his ability to fake to McGuffie and counter to the opposite perimeter.  One 15-20 yard run after faking to McGuffie will force the Badgers to play honest on the zone read.

 

To date Michigan is averaging just 34 rushes for 124 yards per game (3.7 avg.).  Wisconsin has given up 28 rushes for 88 yards (3.1 avg.).  Michigan will be the toughest running team the Badgers have faced to date, while Wisconsin will be the strongest defense the Wolverines have faced to date.  I look for Michigan to rush about 30 times for 105 yards, with one of those runs going for more than 30 yards and possibly leading to a score. 

 

When Michigan Passes the Ball

Threet is no Chad Henne and definitely no Tom Brady or even Brian Griese, but on the other hand, he is no Dennis Franklin or Rick Leach (both of whom would be better running this offense than Threet).  Backup Nick Sheridan may be a better pure passer, but his favorite receiver to date has been one wearing the wrong jersey.

 

Wisconsin’s pass defense is not as accomplished as its run defense, but this isn’t a liability for the Badgers.  The pass rush could be better, and the defensive line is not likely to sack Threet or Sheridan.  The strength of the pass defense is the coverage.  UW’s secondary and linebackers have a knack for batting away passes and a tendency to do so on third down.

 

Michigan currently averages 166 yards per game through the air and picks up less than six yards per pass attempt.  Those numbers are rather weak in the 21st Century.  Wisconsin gives up 230 passing yards per game and 6.3 yards per attempt.  Michigan should pass the ball about 32 times in this game and complete about 17 for just under 200 yards.  Look for Threet to toss his first interception of the season, but I don’t see him getting sacked.

 

When Wisconsin Runs the Ball

It is a myth that Wisconsin is strictly a three yards and cloud of dust team.  The Badgers look to run the ball until the opposition can stop it, but they are not a run only team.  Any smart coach would continue to run the ball if a defense has no answer for it.

 

P.J. Hill is off to a great start this year for the Badgers.  Through three games, he has rushed for 379 yards and four touchdowns.  That is a pace for more than 1,500 yards and 16 scores. 

 

When Hill needs a breather, John Clay and Zach Brown have filled in admirably.  The reason for that is the Badgers have one of the top offensive lines in the nation.  Let’s face it folks: the teams with the best offensive lines are the teams with the best offenses.  Any collegiate running back could gain yardage with the holes the Badger o-line have opened.  Marshall created some problems when they sold out to the run and invited Wisconsin to pass, but the Herd were burned by the passing game.  Michigan won’t sell out, so Hill and company will have a decent but not spectacular day.  If Clay cannot go because of a lingering ankle problems, that could become a minor problem.

 

Michigan’s run defense is just as strong as it ever has been.  If this were 1970 and most teams still ran the ball 80-90% of the time, the Wolverines would be giving up less than 10 points per game because they would be giving up about 150 total yards per game.  In 2008 terms, it is still quite an accomplishment for the UM defense to be giving up just 65 rushing yards on 36 attempts (1.8 avg.).  Even taking out QB sacks (the NCAA needs to get out of the stone age and realize a sack can only happen on a passing play), it comes to 2.65 yards per rush.  The Wolverine defensive line is star-studded with ends Tim Jamison and Brandon Graham and tackles Will Johnson and Terrance Taylor.  Middle linebacker Obi Ezeh is great in the traditional 4-3 defense.  Wisconsin will try to minimize his contribution, but he will still make several stops in this game.

 

Wisconsin averages 239 yards rushing on 47 attempts (5.0 avg.), but they have not faced a defense as good as Michigan’s.  Look for the Badgers to run the ball about 38 times for 145 yards.  Hill won’t break loose and run wild, but he will pick up multiple first downs on 2nd and 3rd and short.  That should be good enough to allow the Badgers to reach pay dirt two times via the ground. 

 

 

When Wisconsin Passes the Ball

Allen Evridge has been overlooked thus far in the 2008 season, but he is definitely in the top half in talent among Big 10 passers.  If you computed his statistics the way the NFL does, his QB Rating would be 98.3.  Last year Peyton Manning had a 98 QBR with the Colts.

 

Evridge likes to go over the middle to his tight ends and h-backs.  It puts lots of pressure on the safeties and middle linebackers because they have to think run first against Wisconsin.  So, it gives Evridge’s receivers a slight initial advantage when running their routes.

 

The wildcard in this week’s game is wide out Kyle Jefferson.  He has the speed and pass-catching ability to be a game breaker, and should he get free and catch a long one, this would be the difference in the game.  I think chances are good he will catch a pass that goes for 30-50 yards and sets up a score.

 

Michigan’s pass defense is considerably weaker than their run defense.  In their opening game with Utah, the Utes passed for 305 yards and completed better than 60% of their passes.  UM fared much better in their last game against Notre Dame, but Wisconsin’s passing offense is miles ahead of Notre Dame’s.

 

Look for Evridge to attempt more passes in this game than he has in any game this year.  He should have his first 30 attempt game of the season and complete 18 of those 30 for 230 to 250 yards. 

 

 

Special Teams

Both teams are rather strong in special teams play, although Michigan has a slight edge here.  Wisconsin has had some problems with their kicking units, as opponents have blocked a punt and a field goal attempt.

 

Michigan punter Zoltan Mesko and Wisconsin punter Brad Nortman rarely have their punts returned for more than five yards.  Both get excellent hang time and coverage, so this should keep the opposing punt return units from making any damage. 

 

Wolverine kicker K.C. Lopata can boot field goals from more than 50 yards, while Badger boot man Phillip Welch has a strong enough leg to connect from 55-60 yards, as he has done many times in practice.  A slight advantage goes to Wisconsin here.

 

Wisconsin will start their possessions following a kickoff a few yards farther downfield than Michigan, but it shouldn’t be enough to matter. 

 

 

Summary

Wisconsin is the first team in history to play Michigan, Ohio State, and Penn State in three consecutive weeks.  The next two games will be played at Camp Randall, while this game is being played at the Big House in Ann Arbor.  All three games are losable games if the Badgers don’t play up to their potential, while all three games are winnable if they play as good as they possibly can.

 

Michigan is definitely the weakest of the troika facing the Badgers, but they are also the most unpredictable.  You just know that eventually the offense is going to “get it” and begin to look more like the West Virginia offense of recent years.  Will it happen this week?  I think the Wolverines will begin to show their offensive mite, but it will be tempered somewhat by an exceptional defensive effort by the Badgers.

 

When Wisconsin has the ball, the Badgers will not run the ball down the Wolverines’ throats.  Evridge will have to succeed through the air to open up the running game.

 

This has the makings of a close game.  If Michigan scores 21 points Saturday, they have a good shot at pulling off the upset.  If Wisconsin scores 24 points in this game, I cannot see them losing.  I think both of the prior two statements will not occur.  Wisconsin will struggle to get 21 points in this game, but I think they will squeak by with a four-point win in the neighborhood of 20-16.

 

Games Against The Spread

 

As I have told you previously, I am no longer devoting much time to teams other than Wisconsin and their opponent and Vanderbilt and their opponent.  You can read prior blogs that explain in detail why I am not concentrating on the NFL and not following college football like I have in the past.  So, I cannot really recommend plays against the spread for college games.  Last week, I gave a list of games against spreads, and if you followed those recommendations, you made a very small profit.  I fell guilty recommending any plays in any form of official manner. 

 

If you want my official recommendations on the NFL games, come by Friday afternoon (around 5 PM Central Time) and you can read my ideas on every game on the schedule.  I have succeeded in pulling off winning weekends all three weeks to date.  Even with all the surprise games in week three, I hit on 60% of my selections and sit at 68.8% for the year for a nice return on investment.

 

For those who must look at the PiRate and Mean ratings to help you make your selections, here is my advice:  Select games in which both the PiRate and Mean ratings agree on the side against the spread and the difference in BOTH spreads is 3 or more points.  Then, group those games in threes and play a 10-point teaser parlay for each triplet.

 

For example, if the line on a game is Team A by 7 points, then it becomes a possibility if both the PiRate and Mean ratings say the spread if Team A by 10 or more points or Team A by 4 or less points (or Team B by anything).  With this game, you would then make it Team A +3 if the ratings pick them by 10 or more, or Team B +17 if the ratings say Team A by 4 or less.  You must play a 3-game parlay for each 10-point teaser, and your odds should be 10-12.

 

Good luck, and remember, I won’t lose a penny, since I don’t wager.  You shouldn’t use my ratings to lose your weekly paycheck.

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