The Pi-Rate Ratings

September 17, 2008

PiRate Ratings For College Football–Week of: September 17-20, 2008

NCAA Week Four: Time For Conference Play

 

Southern California put Ohio State out of the public’s misery by virtually eliminating the Buckeyes from the BCS Championship Game and preventing a three-peat of losses. 

 

With Ohio State out of the running unless a dozen or so teams begin to lose to lesser teams, the next hurdle is to find just two deserving teams by the first week of December.  What happens if among Florida, Oklahoma, Missouri, Penn State, Georgia, Oregon, and Southern California, South Florida, or Alabama, three teams or just one team emerges undefeated?  Let’s say Florida, Southern Cal, and Oklahoma all run the table with convincing wins.  Is the public ready to accept more of the gobbledygook from the NCAA as to why they chose the correct two teams while giving the third one the shaft?  No thanks.  I’ll be watching the NFL Playoffs and not watching the bowl games.

 

Here’s the latest PiRate Ratings.  Remember as you look at these numbers, that these are not rankings of how the teams have fared to date (like the AP, ESPN, and other polls).  These are predictive ratings trying to guess at future games after weighing how the teams have fared so far.

 

NCAA Top 25 For 16-Sep-2008

Won

Lost

1

Florida 

127

2

0

2

Southern Cal

126

2

0

3

Oklahoma

126

3

0

4

Missouri

125

3

0

5

Georgia 

124

3

0

6

Ohio St.

123

2

1

7

Oregon

119

3

0

8

South Florida

119

3

0

9

Penn St.

117

3

0

10

Auburn

117

3

0

11

L S U

116

2

0

12

Kansas

116

2

1

13

South Carolina

116

1

2

14

Brigham Young

114

3

0

15

Texas Tech

114

3

0

16

Wisconsin

114

3

0

17

Tennessee

114

1

1

18

Clemson

114

2

1

19

Alabama

113

3

0

20

Texas

113

2

0

21

West Virginia

113

1

1

22

Utah

112

3

0

23

Arizona St.

112

2

1

24

Florida State

111

2

0

25

T C U

110

3

0

     

 

 

Note: Ratings rounded to nearest whole number

even though I rank them to two decimal points

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

 

 

 

   
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Clemson

1-0

2-1

114

70

44

Florida State

0-0

2-0

111

67

44

Wake Forest

0-0

2-0

110

64

46

Maryland

0-0

2-1

104

66

38

Boston College

0-1

1-1

100

60

40

North Carolina State

0-1

1-2

92

60

32

 

 

 

 

   
Coastal Division

 

 

 

   
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Virginia Tech

1-0

2-1

108

67

41

North Carolina

0-0

2-0

106

69

37

Georgia Tech

1-1

2-1

99

61

38

Miami

0-0

1-1

97

57

40

Duke

0-0

2-1

96

63

33

Virginia 

0-0

1-2

91

56

35

 

Big East Conference

 

 

 

 

   
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

South Florida

0-0

3-0

119

76

43

West Virginia

0-0

1-1

113

73

40

Connecticut

0-0

3-0

110

66

44

Cincinnati

0-0

1-1

107

64

43

Pittsburgh

0-0

1-1

104

60

44

Rutgers

0-0

0-2

103

63

40

Louisville

0-0

1-1

99

61

38

Syracuse

0-0

0-3

83

53

30

 

Big Ten

           
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Ohio State

0-0

2-1

123

70

53

Penn State

0-0

3-0

117

72

45

Wisconsin

0-0

3-0

114

72

42

Michigan State

0-0

2-1

108

66

42

Illinois

0-0

2-1

104

66

38

Purdue

0-0

1-1

104

67

37

Michigan

0-0

1-2

102

61

41

Iowa

0-0

3-0

101

65

36

Northwestern

0-0

3-0

99

65

34

Indiana

0-0

2-0

97

63

34

Minnesota

0-0

3-0

97

64

33

 

Big 12

North Division          
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Missouri

0-0

3-0

125

76

49

Kansas

0-0

2-1

116

67

49

Colorado

0-0

2-0

103

65

38

Kansas State

0-0

2-0

103

68

35

Nebraska

0-0

3-0

102

63

39

Iowa State

0-0

2-1

92

56

36

South Division          
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Oklahoma

0-0

3-0

126

83

43

Texas Tech

0-0

3-0

114

75

39

Texas

0-0

2-0

113

72

41

Oklahoma State

0-0

3-0

110

68

42

Texas A&M

0-0

1-1

99

58

41

Baylor

0-0

2-1

91

58

33

 

Conference USA

East Division          
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

East Carolina

1-0

3-0

107

65

42

Central Florida

0-0

1-1

100

57

43

Southern Miss.

0-0

2-1

92

60

32

Marshall

1-0

2-1

91

55

36

Memphis

0-2

0-3

89

59

30

U A B

0-1

0-3

83

49

34

West Division          
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Tulsa

1-0

2-0

99

66

33

Houston

0-0

1-2

91

57

34

Rice

2-0

2-1

89

61

28

Tulane

0-1

0-2

89

58

31

U T E P

0-0

0-2

81

50

31

S M U

0-1

1-2

79

57

22

 

Independents

           
Team

 

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Notre Dame  

2-0

101

63

38

Navy  

1-2

92

58

34

Army  

0-2

77

49

28

 

Mid American Conference

East Division          
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Temple

0-1

1-2

98

59

39

Bowling Green

0-0

1-2

96

63

33

Buffalo

1-0

2-1

95

61

34

Miami (O)

0-0

1-2

91

58

33

Ohio U

0-0

0-3

91

54

37

Kent State

0-0

1-2

89

56

33

Akron

0-0

1-2

86

60

26

           
West Division          
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Ball State

0-0

3-0

104

68

36

Central Michigan

0-0

2-1

98

66

32

Western Michigan

1-0

2-1

98

62

36

Northern Illinois

0-1

0-2

93

59

34

Toledo

1-0

1-1

93

59

34

Eastern Michigan

0-1

1-2

85

54

31

 

Mountain West Conference

           
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Brigham Young

0-0

3-0

114

72

42

Utah

1-0

3-0

112

68

44

T C U

1-0

3-0

110

64

46

New Mexico

0-1

1-2

94

60

34

Air Force

1-0

3-0

92

55

37

UNLV

0-1

2-1

92

59

33

Wyoming

0-1

2-1

91

55

36

Colorado State

0-0

1-1

85

55

30

San Diego State

0-0

0-3

82

51

31

 

Pac-10 Conference

           
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Southern Cal

0-0

2-0

126

71

55

Oregon

1-0

3-0

119

69

50

Arizona State

1-0

2-1

112

69

43

California

1-0

2-1

109

68

41

Arizona

0-0

2-1

106

69

37

Oregon State

0-1

1-2

106

70

36

U C L A

0-0

1-1

102

60

42

Stanford

1-1

1-2

100

60

40

Washington

0-1

0-3

99

63

36

Washington State

0-1

0-3

88

56

32

 

Southeastern Conference

East Division          
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Florida 

0-0

2-0

127

78

49

Georgia 

1-0

3-0

124

74

50

South Carolina

0-2

1-2

116

69

47

Tennessee

0-0

1-1

114

72

42

Kentucky

0-0

3-0

108

62

46

Vanderbilt

1-0

3-0

104

62

42

West Division          
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Auburn

1-0

3-0

117

68

49

L S U

0-0

2-0

116

71

45

Alabama

0-0

3-0

113

64

49

Ole Miss

0-0

2-1

108

66

42

Mississippi State

0-1

1-2

106

57

49

Arkansas

0-0

2-0

101

68

33

 

Sunbelt Conference

           
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Troy

1-0

2-0

98

62

36

Florida Atlantic

0-0

1-2

96

64

32

Louisiana-Monroe

0-0

1-2

91

57

34

Middle Tennessee

0-1

1-2

90

56

34

Arkansas State

0-0

2-1

88

57

31

* Western Kentucky

0-0

1-2

85

53

32

Louisiana-Lafayette

0-0

0-2

84

57

27

Florida International

0-0

0-2

78

49

29

North Texas

0-0

0-3

75

52

23

           
* Western Kentucky will become eligible in 2009      
Their games will not count in the SBC Standings in 2008    

 

Western Athletic Conference

           
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Fresno State

0-0

1-1

110

69

41

Boise State

0-0

2-0

103

65

38

Nevada

0-0

1-2

92

63

29

Louisiana Tech

0-0

1-1

91

56

35

San Jose State

0-0

2-1

90

55

35

Hawaii

0-0

1-2

89

54

35

New Mexico State

0-0

0-1

82

51

31

Utah State

0-0

0-3

79

47

32

Idaho

0-0

1-2

78

58

20

 

This Week’s Games-PiRate Ratings

Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site

 

 

   

 

 

Wednesday, September 17  

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Pred. Spread

Approx. Score

Kansas State LOUISVILLE

1

28-27

   

 

 

Thursday, September 18  

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Pred. Spread

Approx. Score

West Virginia COLORADO

6

30-24

   

 

 

Friday, September 19  

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Pred. Spread

Approx. Score

CONNECTICUT Baylor

23

35-12

   

 

 

Saturday, September 20  

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Pred. Spread

Approx. Score

OHIO STATE Troy

29

35-6

East Carolina NORTH CAROLINA STATE

13

18-31

PENN STATE Temple

22

35-13

Mississippi State GEORGIA TECH

4

17-13

NORTHWESTERN Ohio U

11

31-20

MINNESOTA Florida Atlantic

5

35-30

PITTSBURGH Iowa 

6

23-17

PURDUE Central Michigan

9

36-27

Alabama ARKANSAS

9

28-19

BOSTON COLLEGE Central Florida

4

21-17

MARYLAND Eastern Michigan

23

37-14

TEXAS A&M Miami (Fl)

5

19-14

Akron ARMY

6

30-24

MISSOURI Buffalo

34

44-10

BRIGHAM YOUNG Wyoming

26

36-10

Arizona U C L A

1

27-26

TULANE La.-Monroe

Pk

24-24 to ot

Florida TENNESSEE

10

34-24

OREGON Boise State

19

33-14

Houston COLORADO STATE

3

27-24

MICHIGAN STATE Notre Dame

10

28-18

NORTH CAROLINA Virginia Tech

1

28-27

Rutgers NAVY

9

28-19

SOUTHERN MISS. Marshall

4

27-23

Utah AIR FORCE

17

31-14

South Florida FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL

39

46-7

TEXAS  Rice

27

47-20

FLORIDA STATE Wake Forest

4

24-20

Ball State INDIANA

5

33-28

OLE MISS Vanderbilt

7

27-20

TULSA New Mexico

8

35-27

Kent State LA.-LAFAYETTE

2

28-26

ARKANSAS STATE Middle Tennessee

1

25-24

CINCINNATI Miami (Oh)

18

32-14

AUBURN L s u

4

24-20

Georgia ARIZONA STATE

8

28-20

UTAH STATE Idaho

4

30-26

T c  u S M U

29

42-13

Fresno State TOLEDO

13

34-21

STANFORD San Jose State

12

26-14

UNLV Iowa State

3

24-21

UTEP New Mexico State

1

21-20

 

This Week’s Games–Mean Ratings

Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site

 

   

 

Wednesday, September 17  

 

Favorite Underdog

Mean Prediction

Kansas State LOUISVILLE

28-26

   

 

Thursday, September 18  

 

Favorite Underdog

Mean Prediction

West Virginia COLORADO

24-19

   

 

Friday, September 19  

 

Favorite Underdog

Mean Prediction

CONNECTICUT Baylor

31-14

   

 

Saturday, September 20  

 

Favorite Underdog

Mean Prediction

OHIO STATE Troy

21-6

East Carolina N. CAROLINA ST.

28-16

PENN STATE Temple

42-12

GEORGIA TECH Mississippi State

21-13

NORTHWESTERN Ohio U

30-17

MINNESOTA Florida Atlantic

26-14

Iowa  PITTSBURGH

20-17

PURDUE Central Michigan

35-24

Alabama ARKANSAS

17-12

BOSTON COLLEGE Central Florida

28-17

MARYLAND Eastern Michigan

37-14

TEXAS A&M Miami (Fl)

17-12

Akron ARMY

21-12

MISSOURI Buffalo

42-13

BRIGHAM YOUNG Wyoming

37-10

Arizona U C L A

28-27

TULANE La.-Monroe

27-24

Florida TENNESSEE

31-24

OREGON Boise State

35-24

Houston COLORADO STATE

31-26

MICHIGAN STATE Notre Dame

20-13

Virginia Tech NORTH CAROLINA

21-17

NAVY Rutgers

35-33

SOUTHERN MISS. Marshall

35-23

Utah AIR FORCE

28-23

South Florida FLORIDA INT’L

30-0

TEXAS  Rice

45-19

FLORIDA STATE Wake Forest

24-21

INDIANA Ball State

24-23

Vanderbilt OLE MISS

24-21

TULSA New Mexico

37-28

LA.-LAFAYETTE Kent State

27-23

ARKANSAS STATE Middle Tennessee

31-28

CINCINNATI Miami (Oh)

31-12

L s u AUBURN

14-12

Georgia ARIZONA STATE

23-14

UTAH STATE Idaho

24-17

T c  u S M U

45-18

Fresno State TOLEDO

29-20

STANFORD San Jose State

34-24

UNLV Iowa State

24-24 to ot

UTEP New Mexico State

31-27

 

 

Vanderbilt (1-0/3-0) at Ole Miss (0-0/2-1)

Vegas:       Ole Miss by 6½

PiRate:      Ole Miss by 7

Mean:        Vanderbilt by 3

Strategy:   None

This has been one of the most even series for these two teams in recent years.  The home team has won the last four games, and the last nine games have been relatively close.

 

I don’t expect the trend to be disrupted this year.  I see this game being close until one team pulls off a great play late, or one team wears down the other in the fourth quarter.

 

When teams are relatively close in talent, and the coaches involved have a past history of playing games down to the wire, there’s no reason to go against the grain and believe there will be anything different.

 

The problem here is my two ratings disagree on the outright winner of this game as well as which team to pick against the spread.  So, since there is no Wisconsin game this week, I will go in depth to try to find the true decisive area in this game.

 

When Ole Miss Run’s The Ball

It’s funny how Coach Houston Nutt has brought back the old direct snap offense to the football world; hundreds of high school teams, a dozen or more college teams, and even the Oakland Raiders are proving that everything old is new again.  Two years after Darren McFadden and Felix Jones made the old single wing/double wing/short punt/etc. offense the rage and ran wild over defenses, finds Nutt bringing the offense with him to Oxford.  It strikes me as odd that defensive coaches haven’t researched why the straight-T formation eventually replaced the direct snap.  The Wide Tackle 6 and 7-diamond defenses choked off the pet plays of the single wing.

 

Now, I am not calling for defenses to resort to the old wide tackle 6 or 7-diamond.  Just as the new “Wild Rebel” offense is a 21st century version of the single wing and its cousins, there are appropriate 21st century versions of the wide tackle 6 and 7-diamond.  Defenses need to cheat two of their four or five secondary defenders to contain the off-tackle holes, so that the linebackers can read and react to the initial exchange.

 

I believe Vanderbilt will be able to contain the Wild Rebel but not stop it entirely.  Dexter McCluster and Brandon Bolden are not as good as McFadden, but Ole Miss’s tackles (Michael Oher and John Jerry) are better than McFadden and Jones had in Hogland.  Vanderbilt will beg McCluster to throw the ball when he is in the game at the direct snap tailback spot.  They will be ready for the outside zone read play and the jet sweep.

 

When Arkansas runs out of its regular pro offense, it may actually be more difficult for the Commodores to slow it down.  My concern is freshman back Enrique Davis.  He might be tough to stop on those 3rd and 4 or 5 plays with Vanderbilt playing using a nickel package.

 

I look for the Rebels to be the first team to really hurt Vandy via the rush, but I don’t expect a monster game.  Look for something like 175 yards on the ground on 40 attempts (not counting QB sacks).

 

When Ole Miss Passes The Ball

The Rebel offensive line has allowed just one sack in three games to date, but I expect Vanderbilt to get to Jevan Snead at least twice and as much as four times in this game.  Ole Miss has some excellent blockers against the pass, but even the best offensive lines will give up a sack or two to teams with really good pass rushes. 

 

Vanderbilt’s pass rush is well above average.  While there are no first team All-Americans on the defensive front or second line of defense, as a group, this Commodore team is resourceful.  Combine some excellent coaching calls with a bevy of different stunts and blitzes, and Vandy will dump Snead two to four times in this game.

 

The reason Vanderbilt can gamble with sending more than four on pass rushes is an excellent secondary.  When Vandy plays cover 2 defense, these days, opponents do not burn them deep like they used to 10 years ago.

 

That said, Ole Miss has two receivers who can get open deep against just about any defense.  If Snead gets enough time, he will find the holes in the Commodore defense and connect with Mike Wallace and Shay Hodge for a couple of big gainers.  I look for Snead to complete about 17 passes in 30 attempts for 200 yards.  Four or five of those completions will go for 20 to 40 yards, while four or five will be cheapies that go for 0 to 5. 

 

The deciding factor in this game will be if Vanderbilt’s secondary can continue to average two interceptions per game.  If they pick off two more in this one, it will be a long night for the home team.

 

When Vanderbilt Runs The Ball

Ole Miss gives up just a little more than three yards per rush, while Vandy averages more than five yards per rush.  Expect the Commodores’ running game to struggle at times against the Rebel defense.  The inside run will be almost eliminated with Ted Laurent and Peria Jerry shutting off the running lanes between the tackles. 

 

Vandy will have to run wide and hope to break a few long runs to the outside.  Tailback Jared Hawkins has a sneaky quick burst of speed and can get through the off-tackle hole suddenly.  When linebackers have to read the option to make sure quarterback Chris Nickson doesn’t still have the ball or whether a motioning receiver isn’t threatening an end around, that sudden move can lead to a breakaway run.

 

I look for the Commodores to run a little less than they normally do and finish with about 175 yards on 45 attempts.  There will be a wide deviation in the average with a higher than normal amount of failed running plays combined with some double-digit yardage plays.

 

When Vanderbilt Passes The Ball

Chris Nickson’s last really good passing game came against these Rebels last year in Nashville.  Nickson had some hamstring issues, so he couldn’t run effectively.  He passed for 200 yards with 17 completions in 25 attempts and no interceptions.  Of course, Nickson won’t have Earl Bennett, George Smith, or Alex Washington available to catch his passes, but Ole Miss won’t have most of the defensive stars they had for that game. 

 

Nickson has only averaged 15 passes per game to date, but he should pass 20 to 25 times in this game.  I look for a final stat line of 13-23-0 for 150 yards.  He will throw safe passes, but he just might hook up with D.J. Moore on a game-deciding play.  It could be a screen pass with tackle Reilly Lauer pancake blocking the one defender who can break up the play; it could be a simple slant route into the heart of the Rebel zone defense; or it could be a streak pattern that gets Moore the ball in open field with room to run. 

 

Special Teams

Both schools’ special teams are really special.  In fact, Ole Miss and Vanderbilt may have the top two special teams in the SEC after three games. 

 

Ole Miss kicker Joshua Shene and Vanderbilt kicker Bryant Hahnfeldt are both perfect this year on PAT and field goal attempts.  Hahnfeldt and Rebel kickoff specialist Justin Sparks get height and distance on their kickoffs, giving their coverage teammates ample time to prevent long returns.

 

Vanderbilt has a slight advantage in the punting game.  Punter Brett Upson may not boom his punts like Jim Arnold did in his days at Vandy, but he has a knack for “kicking them where they a’int.”  Teams just don’t get much opportunity to return his punts, especially when he uses the rolling rugby punt.

 

Ole Miss punter Rob Park has been the lone special teams’ liability for Coach Nutt.  His punting has been unspectacular, and the punt coverage hasn’t starred as of yet.

 

The punt return specialists for both teams may force the punters to kick away and sacrifice yardage.  Vandy’s D.J. Moore averages 29 yards per return with two near touchdowns (stopped inside the one yard line twice).  Ole Miss’s Marshay Green averages 31.7 yards per return with a 77-yard touchdown.  Remember, last year, Green burned LSU with a long touchdown return.

 

I’d call this phase close to even.  I don’t expect either team to let the other team burn them in this game, but the winning points could come from one of the kicker’s knocking one between the uprights as the clock approaches zero.

 

Summary

Can you guess where I’m going here?  Most of you have already determined that these teams are close to even in talent.  The only difference in this game is a three-point home field advantage for Ole Miss.  The home team has been winning in this series long enough to consider it a trend, and I will go with the chalk and call Ole Miss a slight favorite in this game.  Because my two ratings disagree on the winner, I cannot really pick a winner in this game.  I don’t like the 6-point spread in this game either, because two teams of equal strength can play 100 times, and as many as 35 to 40 of those games could end with one team winning by seven points.

 

If you must have action on this game, look at the 10-point teaser.  Take Vanderbilt +16½ as part of a three-team parlay.  The moneyline totals is 50½.  You might consider teasing both sides of this.  Over 40 ½ and Under 60½ could fill out your parlay, but remember this: None of my college picks are official.  Only my NFL picks have several hours of research going into the decision process.  

 

Playable Games According To The PiRates

 

I am glad I no longer emphasize the college picks, because I have not been paying as much attention to them as I have with the NFL ratings.  If you followed the advice of this blog’s college picks last week… you must not have, because you are reading this week’s column.  Now, if you read my NFL blog, you were probably hoping that I would have the official picks ready today because I merely went 10-3 against the spread in week two to make me 16-6 for the year.  You’ll have to wait until Friday to get my picks for NFL Week Three.

 

Remember, these college picks are strictly raw picks based on two bits of data.  First both the PiRate and the Mean Ratings must agree on the same team against the spread.  Second, they must both differ by three or more points.  These games qualify this week:

 

Connecticut -12 vs. Baylor

East Carolina -7½ vs. North Carolina State

Texas A&M + 3½ vs. Miami

Louisiana Monroe +6½ vs. Tulane

Rice +30 vs. Texas

Cincinnati -11½ vs. Miami-Ohio

T C U -24 vs. S M U

 

Here are eight, 10-point teaser plays and two, 13-point teaser plays I like this week (but don’t officially recommend).  Because I believe it is advantageous to play an odd amount of games (.500 loses money), here’s also an 11th game:

 

1.     Florida & Tennessee     Over 41½

        TCU & SMU                Over 41

        LSU & Auburn             Under 47½

 

2.     Utah State & Idaho      Under 73½

        Missouri & Buffalo        Under 81

        Texas & Rice              Under 79½

 

3.     Troy  +31 vs. Ohio State

        Mississippi State  +18½ vs. Georgia Tech

        Northwestern  -½ vs. Ohio U

 

4.     Minnesota  +6 vs. Florida Atlantic

        Iowa  +11 vs. Pittsburgh

        Alabama  +½ vs. Arkansas

 

5.     Boston College  -½ vs. Central Florida

        Arizona State  +17 vs. Georgia

        Louisiana-Monroe  +16 ½ vs. Tulane

 

6.     Florida  +3 vs. Tennessee

        Oregon  -½ vs. Boise State

        Notre Dame  +19 vs. Michigan State

 

7.     San Jose State  +19 vs. Stanford

        Ball State  +13 vs. Indiana

        Vanderbilt  +16½ vs. Ole Miss

 

8.     Cincinnati -1½ vs. Miami-Ohio

        Auburn +12½ vs. LSU

        Texas -20 vs. Rice

 

9.     Mississippi State  +21½ vs. Georgia Tech

        Northwestern  +2½ vs. Ohio U

        Iowa  +14 vs. Pittsburgh

        Alabama +3½ vs. Arkansas

 

10.    Oregon +2½ vs. Boise State

        Cincinnati +1½ vs. Miami-Ohio

        Texas -17 vs. Rice

        Boston College +2½ vs. Central Florida

 

11.    Vanderbilt +235 vs. Ole Miss (Moneyline Special)

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2 Comments

  1. Interesting. At least you admit the predictive nature of these rankings. On the other hand, I don’t agree that polls as the Ap, ESPN, etc are what’s been done to date. If so, Fla St wouldn’t get any votes for their two lower division wins. Ohio State wouldn’t be so high for their in-state wins over Youngstown State and Ohio U. Therefore, those polls also have a predictive nature.

    Nice work.

    Comment by afrankangle — September 18, 2008 @ 4:53 pm

  2. Thank you for your kid words. My ratings are definitely not rankings. I am looking ahead to the next week of games rather than looking at what the team has done to date.

    In the polls, if a team plays a terrible game and loses when they should have won or due to some unfortunate mishaps, they will drop in the polls, while my ratings may leave them where they are.

    Occasionally, you may see a team lose and rise in my ratings. Let’s say the #15 team plays at the #3 team. The #3 team is favored by 10 but wins by two. Usually, the #3 team will fall and the losing #15 team will rise in my ratings, whereas in the polls, the #15 team will fall. What that two-point win means to me is that the #15 team may be better than the #3 team on a neutral field, and my ratings will reflect that.

    Theoretically, a team could play 12 highly-rated teams, lose all 12 by less than three points each, and in my ratings, they could finish the season in my Top 25 with an 0-12 record!

    Thanks for coming by this blog.

    Comment by piratings — September 19, 2008 @ 12:44 pm


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