The Pi-Rate Ratings

September 15, 2008

Pro Football Computer Simulation 2008–Week Two

Pro Football Computer Simulation League—Week 2 Results

 

Week two saw some upsets and some blowouts from the teams that I figured would be strong in this sim league.  I did not run the sim until late Saturday night, so I was able to change the schedule to keep it the same as the current 2008 NFL schedule.  So, the 2007 Houston Texans did not play the 2000 Baltimore Ravens, and those two teams plus 1981 Cincinnati will all have their schedules change with the real one, even though a simulated hurricane did not blow through my office (some people who have seen my office might ask how anybody would ever know the difference if it had).

 

Although I am not concentrating as much time to the sim league this year due to more coverage of the real NFL, I will note a few spectacular points from this week’s sim following the boxscores of the game involved.

 

I’ve also added another feature this week.  I have included the raw PiRate Rating for each of the 32 teams.  This is strictly a measure of point differential and strength of schedule.  If you actually want to try to predict the future games, just give each home team 2.5 points and take the difference in the ratings.

 

Final Scores

1984 Miami                   42      1998 Arizona                20

2002 Tampa Bay            33      1998 Atlanta                   7

1990 Buffalo                31      1999 Jacksonville       12

1985 Chicago                41      1996 Carolina                3

2000 Tennessee            27      1981 Cincinnati             3

2005 Pittsburgh          35      1987 Cleveland              7

1992 Dallas                  24      2004 Philadelphia       17

1998 Denver                 45      2006 San Diego            17

1996 Green Bay            34      1991 Detroit                14

1998 Minnesota           34      2005 Indianapolis       23

2000 Oakland               27      2003 Kansas City         24

2007 New England       30      1998 New York Jets     14

1987 New Orleans       21      1991 Washington           9

1999 St. Louis              16      1986 N. York Giants    10

2005 Seattle                 24      1984 San Francisco     20

 

The Standings After Week 2

 

Pro Football Computer Simulation League

National Football Conference

East Division

Won

Lost

Tie

Pts

Opp

PiRate

1992 Dallas Cowboys

2

0

0

52

33

115.1

1986 New York Giants

1

1

0

30

33

104.8

1991 Washington Redskins

0

2

0

26

41

99.6

2004 Philadelphia Eagles

0

2

0

45

61

99.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

North Division

Won

Lost

Tie

Pts

Opp

 

1985 Chicago Bears

2

0

0

61

20

122.3

1996 Green Bay Packers

2

0

0

68

34

119.0

1998 Minnesota Vikings

1

1

0

54

57

102.0

1991 Detroit Lions

0

2

0

35

61

92.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

South Division

Won

Lost

Tie

Pts

Opp

 

2002 Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2

0

0

60

23

116.6

1987 New Orleans Saints

1

1

0

37

36

102.3

1996 Carolina Panthers

1

1

0

34

45

97.6

1998 Atlanta Falcons

1

1

0

34

54

92.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

West Division

Won

Lost

Tie

Pts

Opp

 

1999 St. Louis Rams

2

0

0

53

38

108.6

2005 Seattle Seahawks

2

0

0

48

37

106.1

1984 San Francisco 49ers

1

1

0

47

38

104.4

1998 Arizona Cardinals

0

2

0

34

69

83.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

American Football Conference

East Division

Won

Lost

Tie

Pts

Opp

 

2007 New England Patriots

2

0

0

75

34

122.3

1984 Miami Dolphins

1

1

0

64

47

112.7

1990 Buffalo Bills

1

1

0

48

36

111.4

1998 New York Jets

1

1

0

41

52

100.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

North Division

Won

Lost

Tie

Pts

Opp

 

2000 Baltimore Ravens

1

0

0

20

10

109.0

2005 Pittsburgh Steelers

1

1

0

56

31

113.3

1981 Cincinnati Bengals

0

2

0

13

47

86.1

1987 Cleveland Browns

0

2

0

23

63

83.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

South Division

Won

Lost

Tie

Pts

Opp

 

2007 Houston Texans

1

0

0

24

21

101.2

2000 Tennessee Titans

1

1

0

40

17

108.6

1999 Jacksonville Jaguars

1

1

0

26

44

92.1

2005 Indianapolis Colts

0

2

0

40

54

94.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

West Division

Won

Lost

Tie

Pts

Opp

 

1998 Denver Broncos

2

0

0

80

38

119.3

2000 Oakland Raiders

1

1

0

48

59

94.2

2003 Kansas City Chiefs

0

2

0

44

72

86.1

2006 San Diego Chargers

0

2

0

31

76

81.0

 

Boxscores—Week 2

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

1998 Ari

7

0

6

7

 

20

1985 Mia

7

14

14

7

 

42

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ari

Stat

Mia

 

 

 

 

24

FD

25

 

 

 

 

33-142

Rush-Yds

26-120

 

 

 

 

211

Pass Yds

362

 

 

 

 

15-28-1

Passes

24-34-0

 

 

 

 

3-19

Sacks

1-8

 

 

 

 

3-38.7

Punt

0-0

 

 

 

 

0-0

PR

1-11

 

 

 

 

5-40

Pen

4-30

 

 

 

 

2-1

Fum

1-0

 

 

 

 

64

Play

61

 

 

 

 

334

Tot Yds

474

 

 

 

Dan Marino passes for 4 TDs

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

2002 TB

10

13

7

3

 

33

1998 Atl

0

0

7

0

 

7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TB

Stat

Atl

 

 

 

 

19

FD

11

 

 

 

 

32-123

Rush-Yds

31-89

 

 

 

 

234

Pass Yds

149

 

 

 

 

20-34-1

Passes

15-30-2

 

 

 

 

1-7

Sacks

3-23

 

 

 

 

3-41.3

Punt

6-42.5

 

 

 

 

3-71

PR

1-3

 

 

 

 

4-20

Pen

5-33

 

 

 

 

0-0

Fum

2-1

 

 

 

 

67

Play

64

 

 

 

 

350

Tot Yds

215

 

 

 

Buc Defense forces three turnovers and offense scores 17 points off those miscues

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

1999 Jac

3

6

3

0

 

12

1990 Buf

0

7

21

3

 

31

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Jac

Stat

Buf

 

 

 

 

13

FD

20

 

 

 

 

26-68

Rush-Yds

44-209

 

 

 

 

196

Pass Yds

221

 

 

 

 

18-34-2

Passes

16-28-0

 

 

 

 

2-19

Sacks

1-8

 

 

 

 

5-41.6

Punt

3-44.3

 

 

 

 

1-8

PR

2-53

 

 

 

 

7-57

Pen

3-15

 

 

 

 

0-0

Fum

1-0

 

 

 

 

62

Play

73

 

 

 

 

245

Tot Yds

422

 

 

Jim Kelly throws three TD passes in 3rd quarter

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

1996 Car

0

0

3

0

 

3

1985 Chi

14

10

17

0

 

41

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Car

Stat

Chi

 

 

 

 

9

FD

30

 

 

 

 

23-64

Rush-Yds

44-278

 

 

 

 

140

Pass Yds

213

 

 

 

 

13-27-1

Passes

12-19-0

 

 

 

 

6-44

Sacks

0-0

 

 

 

 

7-38.4

Punt

2-41.5

 

 

 

 

0-0

PR

4-53

 

 

 

 

4-25

Pen

5-40

 

 

 

 

3-1

Fum

0-0

 

 

 

 

56

Play

63

 

 

 

 

160

Tot Yds

511

 

 

Walter Payton rushes for 211 yards on 31 attempts and scores twice

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

1981 Cin

3

0

0

0

 

3

2000 Ten

0

6

14

7

 

27

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cin

Stat

Ten

 

 

 

 

13

FD

21

 

 

 

 

41-107

Rush-Yds

32-158

 

 

 

 

141

Pass Yds

183

 

 

 

 

16-30-2

Passes

15-26-0

 

 

 

 

3-22

Sacks

0-0

 

 

 

 

6-41.5

Punt

5-45.0

 

 

 

 

2-11

PR

3-85

 

 

 

 

5-39

Pen

3-25

 

 

 

 

2-1

Fum

1-0

 

 

 

 

74

Play

58

 

 

 

 

226

Tot Yds

341

 

 

Derrick Mason 72 yd. punt return for score and 59 yd. kick return to set up another score

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

1987 Cle

0

0

7

0

 

7

2005 Pit

14

7

7

7

 

35

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cle

Stat

Pit

 

 

 

 

13

FD

21

 

 

 

 

27-83

Rush-Yds

38-216

 

 

 

 

178

Pass Yds

171

 

 

 

 

15-28-1

Passes

17-29-0

 

 

 

 

3-19

Sacks

1-7

 

 

 

 

7-42.3

Punt

3-39.7

 

 

 

 

0-0

PR

3-31

 

 

 

 

6-50

Pen

2-15

 

 

 

 

1-0

Fum

0-0

 

 

 

 

58

Play

68

 

 

 

 

242

Tot Yds

380

 

 

Willie Parker 176 yds. rushing and 3 TDs

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

1992 Dal

3

0

7

14

 

24

2004 Phi

7

7

3

0

 

17

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dal

Stat

Phi

 

 

 

 

23

FD

18

 

 

 

 

40-154

Rush-Yds

26-120

 

 

 

 

221

Pass Yds

229

 

 

 

 

19-28-0

Passes

19-34-2

 

 

 

 

3-28

Sacks

2-15

 

 

 

 

5-42.8

Punt

4-40.5

 

 

 

 

2-17

PR

2-21

 

 

 

 

4-25

Pen

3-20

 

 

 

 

0-0

Fum

2-1

 

 

 

 

71

Play

62

 

 

 

 

347

Tot Yds

334

 

 

Troy Aikman leads two 4th-quarter TD drives (72 & 56 yds.)

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

1998 Den

21

14

10

0

 

45

2006 SD

7

3

0

7

 

17

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Den

Stat

SD

 

 

 

 

29

FD

13

 

 

 

 

36-205

Rush-Yds

35-112

 

 

 

 

279

Pass Yds

157

 

 

 

 

16-25-0

Passes

16-29-1

 

 

 

 

0-0

Sacks

3-23

 

 

 

 

2-44.0

Punt

4-43.8

 

 

 

 

2-19

PR

1-5

 

 

 

 

5-37

Pen

4-43

 

 

 

 

1-0

Fum

2-1

 

 

 

 

61

Play

67

 

 

 

 

484

Tot Yds

246

 

 

John Elway throws two 1st-quarter TD passes and Terrell Davis tops 100 yards in 1st quarter alone

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

1991 Det

0

7

7

0

 

14

1996 GB

10

14

7

3

 

34

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Det

Stat

GB

 

 

 

 

9

FD

17

 

 

 

 

34-142

Rush-Yds

26-113

 

 

 

 

116

Pass Yds

233

 

 

 

 

12-27-2

Passes

16-27-1

 

 

 

 

3-27

Sacks

1-7

 

 

 

 

7-41.6

Punt

3-44.3

 

 

 

 

1-8

PR

3-44

 

 

 

 

8-75

Pen

6-48

 

 

 

 

0-0

Fum

1-0

 

 

 

 

64

Play

54

 

 

 

 

231

Tot Yds

339

 

 

Defense gives Packer Offense three possessions in Lions’ Territory (2 Int. + 1 Blocked Punt)

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

1998 Min

14

14

3

3

 

34

2005 Ind

0

6

10

7

 

23

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Min

Stat

Ind

 

 

 

 

31

FD

22

 

 

 

 

48-192

Rush-Yds

24-98

 

 

 

 

266

Pass Yds

242

 

 

 

 

16-27-1

Passes

21-36-0

 

 

 

 

1-8

Sacks

3-25

 

 

 

 

3-43.0

Punt

4-38.8

 

 

 

 

1-1

PR

1-6

 

 

 

 

2-10

Pen

3-20

 

 

 

 

2-1

Fum

1-0

 

 

 

 

76

Play

63

 

 

 

 

450

Tot Yds

315

 

 

 

Randy Moss catches 9 passes for 175 yds. and 2 TDs

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

2003 KC

7

3

7

7

 

24

2000 Oak

3

7

10

7

 

27

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

KC

Stat

Oak

 

 

 

 

18

FD

26

 

 

 

 

31-111

Rush-Yds

41-191

 

 

 

 

255

Pass Yds

210

 

 

 

 

18-33-1

Passes

14-26-0

 

 

 

 

4-30

Sacks

2-18

 

 

 

 

2-38.5

Punt

3-43.7

 

 

 

 

1-8

PR

0-0

 

 

 

 

5-37

Pen

6-45

 

 

 

 

0-0

Fum

1-0

 

 

 

 

68

Play

69

 

 

 

 

336

Tot Yds

383

 

 

 

Rich Gannon winning TD pass to Andre Rison with 24 seconds left in Game

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

1998 NYJ

0

7

0

7

 

14

2007 NE

10

7

10

3

 

30

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NYJ

Stat

NE

 

 

 

 

16

FD

21

 

 

 

 

41-140

Rush-Yds

28-121

 

 

 

 

231

Pass Yds

277

 

 

 

 

19-34-2

Passes

17-26-0

 

 

 

 

2-13

Sacks

1-7

 

 

 

 

5-41.6

Punt

1-47

 

 

 

 

1-14

PR

2-33

 

 

 

 

6-42

Pen

4-30

 

 

 

 

2-1

Fum

1-0

 

 

 

 

77

Play

55

 

 

 

 

358

Tot Yds

391

 

 

 

Tom Brady passes for one TD each to Welker, Stallworth, and Moss

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

1991 Was

3

6

0

0

 

9

1987 NO

0

7

0

14

 

21

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Was

Stat

NO

 

 

 

 

16

FD

20

 

 

 

 

34-132

Rush-Yds

32-190

 

 

 

 

219

Pass Yds

210

 

 

 

 

16-29-2

Passes

18-30-1

 

 

 

 

2-22

Sacks

3-20

 

 

 

 

5-43.2

Punt

5-41.6

 

 

 

 

2-10

PR

3-29

 

 

 

 

5-37

Pen

4-25

 

 

 

 

0-0

Fum

0-0

 

 

 

 

65

Play

65

 

 

 

 

329

Tot Yds

380

 

 

Rickey Jackson 14 tackles including three for loss

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

1999 Stl

7

3

3

3

 

16

1986 NYG

0

3

0

7

 

10

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Stl

Stat

NYG

 

 

 

 

14

FD

14

 

 

 

 

30-102

Rush-Yds

41-152

 

 

 

 

213

Pass Yds

148

 

 

 

 

16-29-1

Passes

11-24-1

 

 

 

 

1-8

Sacks

2-15

 

 

 

 

3-47.0

Punt

5-42.8

 

 

 

 

2-41

PR

1-(-2)

 

 

 

 

5-35

Pen

4-28

 

 

 

 

1-0

Fum

2-1

 

 

 

 

60

Play

67

 

 

 

 

307

Tot Yds

285

 

 

Todd Lyght intercepts Phil Simms in end zone on final play

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

2005 Sea

0

14

10

0

 

24

1984 SF

7

7

6

0

 

20

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sea

Stat

SF

 

 

 

 

19

FD

20

 

 

 

 

40-167

Rush-Yds

36-147

 

 

 

 

203

Pass Yds

229

 

 

 

 

14-27-1

Passes

19-29-0

 

 

 

 

2-19

Sacks

1-6

 

 

 

 

3-41.7

Punt

2-45.0

 

 

 

 

0-0

PR

1-3

 

 

 

 

4-25

Pen

3-35

 

 

 

 

0-0

Fum

3-2

 

 

 

 

69

Play

66

 

 

 

 

351

Tot Yds

370

 

 

Shaun Alexander rushes for 134 yards and a TD

 

 

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