NCAA Week Three: The Game Of The Year
Last week, the NCAA football schedule was a big joke, as none of the top teams faced off. There were some surprises, as Ohio U gave Ohio State a good game (my friend Lee must have been going crazy), and East Carolina showed the rest of the nation that they are as good as they were when Jeff Blake was there. The Pirates (no relation to the PiRates) will definitely get a BCS Bowl bid if they run the table, because they will have beaten four BCS conference teams and will have won a conference championship game.
Locally, the Wisconsin Badgers took awhile to get untracked, but once Allan Evridge began mimicking the aerial circus, the Badgers all of a sudden looked like a team from the 21st Century. The 51-point outburst came through the air rather than on the ground, and with a two-pronged attack, UW could very well be on equal footing with Ohio State and Penn State, both of whom must come to Madtown. Saturday night’s game in Fresno may be the most important Badger game since the October 23, 1999, game against Michigan State (the Badgers won to virtually sew up a Rose Bowl bid). If UW can win at Fresno State with the Bulldogs getting five extra days to prepare, then they have the talent to knock off both the Buckeyes and Nittany Lions at home. The game in Iowa City on October 18 could then be the last high hurdle to jump. If that’s the case, I hope my nephew Josh down in Iowa can score me some tickets for that game.
Vanderbilt proved that 2007 was no fluke, when the Commodores knocked off South Carolina for the second year in a row. I got a chance to watch this one, and the black and gold stop troops looked legitimately tough—about on par with the defense of 1997. The offense is still a work in progress, as the line needs to improve its pass blocking. Once that improves, quarterback Chris Nickson will look a lot better. And, if the passing game improves just a bit, it will open more running holes. It’s still too early, but this team has a chance to break that dreadfully long streak of losing seasons. The game with Rice this weekend should be exciting and high scoring—possibly the highest scoring game at Vanderbilt Stadium since the 2005 Kentucky game.
As for the big game of the week, I personally believe Southern Cal will win with relative ease. During the Pete Carroll era, he has had his Trojans prepared and ready to go every time they have faced a major opponent, and most of those games have been on the road. The Trojans enjoyed a week off, and they have the team quickness to exploit the same thing Florida and LSU have exploited against the Buckeyes the last two BCS Championship games. USC will force OSU to defend 10 running gaps and both the horizontal and vertical passing zones. Jim Laurinaitis cannot be everywhere.
Here’s the latest PiRate Ratings. Remember as you look at these numbers, that these are not rankings of how the teams have fared to date (like the AP, ESPN, and other polls). These are predictive ratings trying to guess at future games after weighing how the teams have fared so far.
|
NCAA Top 25 For 09-10-08 |
Won |
Lost |
||
|
1 |
Florida |
127 |
2 |
0 |
|
2 |
Ohio St. |
127 |
2 |
0 |
|
3 |
Georgia |
125 |
2 |
0 |
|
4 |
Missouri |
123 |
2 |
0 |
|
5 |
Oklahoma |
122 |
2 |
0 |
|
6 |
Oregon |
121 |
2 |
0 |
|
7 |
Southern Cal |
121 |
1 |
0 |
|
8 |
South Florida |
120 |
2 |
0 |
|
9 |
Auburn |
118 |
2 |
0 |
|
10 |
L S U |
117 |
1 |
0 |
|
11 |
Arizona St. |
116 |
2 |
0 |
|
12 |
Kansas |
115 |
2 |
0 |
|
13 |
Clemson |
115 |
1 |
1 |
|
14 |
South Carolina |
115 |
1 |
1 |
|
15 |
California |
112 |
2 |
0 |
|
16 |
Wisconsin |
114 |
2 |
0 |
|
17 |
Texas Tech |
114 |
2 |
0 |
|
18 |
Tennessee |
114 |
0 |
1 |
|
19 |
Penn St. |
113 |
2 |
0 |
|
20 |
West Virginia |
113 |
1 |
1 |
|
21 |
Texas |
113 |
2 |
0 |
|
22 |
Alabama |
112 |
2 |
0 |
|
23 |
Kentucky |
111 |
2 |
0 |
|
24 |
Florida State |
110 |
1 |
0 |
|
25 |
Fresno St. |
110 |
1 |
0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Note: Ratings rounded to nearest whole number |
||||
|
even though I rank them to two decimal points |
||||
PiRate Ratings by Conferences
|
Atlantic Coast Conference |
|||||
|
Atlantic Division |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
|
Clemson |
0-0 |
1-1 |
115 |
71 |
44 |
|
Wake Forest |
0-0 |
2-0 |
110 |
64 |
46 |
|
Florida State |
0-0 |
1-0 |
110 |
66 |
44 |
|
Maryland |
0-0 |
1-1 |
102 |
64 |
38 |
|
Boston College |
0-1 |
1-1 |
100 |
60 |
40 |
|
North Carolina State |
0-0 |
1-1 |
91 |
60 |
31 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Coastal Division |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
|
Virginia Tech |
0-0 |
1-1 |
109 |
68 |
41 |
|
North Carolina |
0-0 |
1-0 |
104 |
68 |
36 |
|
Georgia Tech |
1-0 |
2-0 |
98 |
62 |
37 |
|
Miami |
0-0 |
1-1 |
97 |
57 |
40 |
|
Virginia |
0-0 |
1-1 |
94 |
58 |
36 |
|
Duke |
0-0 |
1-1 |
95 |
61 |
34 |
|
Big East Conference |
|||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
|
South Florida |
0-0 |
2-0 |
120 |
77 |
43 |
|
West Virginia |
0-0 |
1-1 |
113 |
73 |
40 |
|
Connecticut |
0-0 |
2-0 |
108 |
65 |
43 |
|
Cincinnati |
0-0 |
1-1 |
107 |
64 |
43 |
|
Rutgers |
0-0 |
0-1 |
105 |
63 |
42 |
|
Pittsburgh |
0-0 |
1-1 |
104 |
60 |
44 |
|
Louisville |
0-0 |
1-1 |
99 |
61 |
38 |
|
Syracuse |
0-0 |
0-2 |
86 |
54 |
32 |
|
Big Ten |
|||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
|
Ohio State |
0-0 |
2-0 |
127 |
72 |
55 |
|
Wisconsin |
0-0 |
2-0 |
114 |
72 |
42 |
|
Penn State |
0-0 |
2-0 |
113 |
69 |
44 |
|
Illinois |
0-0 |
1-1 |
107 |
68 |
39 |
|
Michigan State |
0-0 |
1-1 |
107 |
67 |
40 |
|
Michigan |
0-0 |
1-1 |
103 |
61 |
42 |
|
Purdue |
0-0 |
1-0 |
101 |
65 |
36 |
|
Iowa |
0-0 |
2-0 |
101 |
66 |
35 |
|
Northwestern |
0-0 |
2-0 |
99 |
65 |
34 |
|
Indiana |
0-0 |
2-0 |
97 |
63 |
34 |
|
Minnesota |
0-0 |
2-0 |
97 |
64 |
33 |
|
Big 12 |
|||||
|
North Division |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
|
Missouri |
0-0 |
2-0 |
123 |
74 |
49 |
|
Kansas |
0-0 |
2-0 |
115 |
66 |
49 |
|
Colorado |
0-0 |
2-0 |
103 |
65 |
38 |
|
Kansas State |
0-0 |
2-0 |
103 |
68 |
35 |
|
Nebraska |
0-0 |
2-0 |
101 |
62 |
39 |
|
Iowa State |
0-0 |
2-0 |
92 |
57 |
35 |
|
South Division |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
|
Oklahoma |
0-0 |
2-0 |
122 |
80 |
42 |
|
Texas Tech |
0-0 |
2-0 |
114 |
75 |
39 |
|
Texas |
0-0 |
2-0 |
113 |
72 |
41 |
|
Oklahoma State |
0-0 |
2-0 |
109 |
68 |
41 |
|
Texas A&M |
0-0 |
1-1 |
99 |
58 |
41 |
|
Baylor |
0-0 |
1-1 |
88 |
56 |
32 |
|
Conference USA |
|||||
|
East Division |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
|
East Carolina |
0-0 |
2-0 |
109 |
65 |
44 |
|
Central Florida |
0-0 |
1-1 |
100 |
57 |
43 |
|
Marshall |
0-0 |
1-1 |
92 |
56 |
36 |
|
Southern Miss. |
0-0 |
1-1 |
91 |
60 |
31 |
|
Memphis |
0-1 |
0-2 |
88 |
59 |
29 |
|
U A B |
0-1 |
0-2 |
83 |
49 |
34 |
|
West Division |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
|
Tulsa |
1-0 |
2-0 |
99 |
66 |
33 |
|
Houston |
0-0 |
1-1 |
92 |
57 |
35 |
|
Rice |
2-0 |
2-0 |
89 |
61 |
28 |
|
Tulane |
0-0 |
0-1 |
86 |
56 |
30 |
|
U T E P |
0-0 |
0-2 |
81 |
50 |
31 |
|
S M U |
0-1 |
1-1 |
79 |
57 |
22 |
|
Independents |
|||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Team |
|
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
|
Notre Dame |
|
1-0 |
100 |
62 |
38 |
|
Navy |
|
1-1 |
93 |
58 |
35 |
|
Army |
|
0-2 |
77 |
49 |
28 |
|
Mid American Conference |
|||||
|
East Division |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
|
Temple |
0-0 |
1-1 |
98 |
59 |
39 |
|
Bowling Green |
0-0 |
1-1 |
96 |
63 |
33 |
|
Buffalo |
0-0 |
1-1 |
95 |
61 |
34 |
|
Miami (O) |
0-0 |
0-2 |
92 |
58 |
34 |
|
Ohio U |
0-0 |
0-2 |
90 |
53 |
37 |
|
Kent State |
0-0 |
0-2 |
89 |
56 |
33 |
|
Akron |
0-0 |
1-1 |
87 |
60 |
27 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
West Division |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
|
Ball State |
0-0 |
2-0 |
103 |
67 |
36 |
|
Central Michigan |
0-0 |
1-1 |
99 |
66 |
33 |
|
Western Michigan |
1-0 |
1-1 |
96 |
61 |
35 |
|
Northern Illinois |
0-1 |
0-2 |
93 |
59 |
34 |
|
Toledo |
0-0 |
0-1 |
90 |
57 |
33 |
|
Eastern Michigan |
0-0 |
1-1 |
88 |
55 |
33 |
|
Mountain West Conference |
|||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
|
Brigham Young |
0-0 |
2-0 |
110 |
70 |
40 |
|
T C U |
1-0 |
2-0 |
109 |
64 |
45 |
|
Utah |
1-0 |
2-0 |
108 |
65 |
43 |
|
Wyoming |
0-1 |
1-1 |
92 |
56 |
36 |
|
New Mexico |
0-1 |
0-2 |
91 |
58 |
33 |
|
Air Force |
1-0 |
2-0 |
91 |
54 |
37 |
|
UNLV |
0-1 |
1-1 |
89 |
58 |
31 |
|
Colorado State |
0-0 |
1-1 |
85 |
55 |
30 |
|
San Diego State |
0-0 |
0-2 |
85 |
52 |
33 |
|
Pac-10 Conference |
|||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
|
Oregon |
1-0 |
2-0 |
121 |
71 |
50 |
|
Southern Cal |
0-0 |
1-0 |
121 |
69 |
52 |
|
Arizona State |
1-0 |
2-0 |
116 |
72 |
44 |
|
California |
1-0 |
2-0 |
112 |
69 |
43 |
|
Arizona |
0-0 |
2-0 |
109 |
71 |
38 |
|
U C L A |
0-0 |
1-0 |
107 |
63 |
44 |
|
Oregon State |
0-1 |
0-2 |
104 |
68 |
36 |
|
Washington |
0-1 |
0-2 |
103 |
65 |
38 |
|
Stanford |
1-1 |
1-1 |
101 |
61 |
40 |
|
Washington State |
0-1 |
0-2 |
92 |
58 |
34 |
|
Southeastern Conference |
|||||
|
East Division |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
|
Florida |
0-0 |
2-0 |
127 |
78 |
49 |
|
Georgia |
0-0 |
2-0 |
125 |
75 |
50 |
|
South Carolina |
0-1 |
1-1 |
115 |
69 |
46 |
|
Tennessee |
0-0 |
0-1 |
114 |
72 |
42 |
|
Kentucky |
0-0 |
2-0 |
111 |
64 |
47 |
|
Vanderbilt |
1-0 |
2-0 |
104 |
62 |
42 |
|
West Division |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
|
Auburn |
0-0 |
2-0 |
118 |
71 |
47 |
|
L S U |
0-0 |
1-0 |
117 |
72 |
45 |
|
Alabama |
0-0 |
2-0 |
112 |
64 |
48 |
|
Ole Miss |
0-0 |
1-1 |
108 |
66 |
42 |
|
Mississippi State |
0-0 |
1-1 |
105 |
59 |
46 |
|
Arkansas |
0-0 |
2-0 |
101 |
68 |
33 |
|
Sunbelt Conference |
|||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
|
Florida Atlantic |
0-0 |
1-1 |
97 |
66 |
31 |
|
Troy |
1-0 |
1-0 |
97 |
61 |
36 |
|
Louisiana-Monroe |
0-0 |
0-2 |
91 |
57 |
34 |
|
Arkansas State |
0-0 |
2-0 |
89 |
57 |
32 |
|
Middle Tennessee |
0-1 |
1-1 |
87 |
56 |
31 |
|
* Western Kentucky |
0-0 |
1-1 |
86 |
54 |
32 |
|
Louisiana-Lafayette |
0-0 |
0-1 |
82 |
56 |
26 |
|
Florida International |
0-0 |
0-2 |
78 |
49 |
29 |
|
North Texas |
0-0 |
0-2 |
74 |
52 |
22 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
* Western Kentucky will become eligible in 2009 |
|
|
|
||
|
Their games will not count in the SBC Standings in 2008 |
|
|
|||
|
Western Athletic Conference |
|||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Off |
Def |
|
Fresno State |
0-0 |
1-0 |
110 |
69 |
41 |
|
Boise State |
0-0 |
1-0 |
103 |
65 |
38 |
|
Nevada |
0-0 |
1-1 |
94 |
63 |
31 |
|
Hawaii |
0-0 |
1-1 |
92 |
56 |
36 |
|
Louisiana Tech |
0-0 |
1-1 |
91 |
56 |
35 |
|
San Jose State |
0-0 |
1-1 |
88 |
54 |
34 |
|
Utah State |
0-0 |
0-2 |
83 |
49 |
34 |
|
New Mexico State |
0-0 |
0-0 |
82 |
51 |
31 |
|
Idaho |
0-0 |
1-1 |
80 |
58 |
22 |
|
This Week’s Games—PiRate Ratings |
|||
|
Home Team in CAPS |
(N) Denotes Neutral Site |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Thursday, September 11 |
|
|
|
|
Favorite |
Underdog |
Pred. Spread |
Approx. Score |
|
RUTGERS |
North Carolina |
4 |
28-24 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Friday, September 12 |
|
|
|
|
Favorite |
Underdog |
Pred. Spread |
Approx. Score |
|
SOUTH FLORIDA |
Kansas |
9 |
30-21 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Saturday, September 13 |
|
|
|
|
Favorite |
Underdog |
Pred. Spread |
Approx. Score |
|
California |
MARYLAND |
6 |
27-21 |
|
ILLINOIS |
UL-Lafayette |
29 |
42-13 |
|
MICHIGAN STATE |
Florida Atlantic |
13 |
37-24 |
|
DUKE |
Navy |
5 |
28-23 |
|
CLEMSON |
North Carolina State |
27 |
41-14 |
|
BUFFALO |
Temple |
Pk |
24-24 to OT |
|
IOWA |
Iowa State |
12 |
33-21 |
|
MISSOURI |
Nevada |
33 |
47-14 |
|
BAYLOR |
Washington State |
Pk |
24-24 to OT |
|
TENNESSEE |
Alabama-Birmingham |
34 |
41-7 |
|
Ball State |
AKRON |
13 |
40-27 |
|
EASTERN MICHIGAN |
Toledo |
1 |
24-23 |
|
Central Michigan |
OHIO U |
6 |
27-21 |
|
East Carolina |
TULANE |
20 |
34-14 |
|
Georgia |
SOUTH CAROLINA |
7 |
28-21 |
|
TEXAS |
Arkansas |
15 |
42-27 |
|
Oregon |
PURDUE |
16 |
35-19 |
|
Penn State |
SYRACUSE |
24 |
37-13 |
|
B Y U |
U c l a |
6 |
27-21 |
|
NOTRE DAME |
Michigan |
Pk |
20-20 to OT |
|
HOUSTON |
Air Force |
4 |
21-17 |
|
VIRGINIA TECH |
Georgia Tech |
14 |
34-21 |
|
OREGON STATE |
Hawaii |
16 |
35-19 |
|
Western Michigan |
IDAHO |
12 |
38-26 |
|
Auburn |
MISSISSIPPI STATE |
10 |
24-14 |
|
ALABAMA |
Western Kentucky |
30 |
36-6 |
|
TEXAS TECH |
S m u |
38 |
55-17 |
|
KENTUCKY |
Middle Tennessee |
27 |
33-6 |
|
NEBRASKA |
New Mexico State |
23 |
35-12 |
|
VANDERBILT |
Rice |
18 |
35-17 |
|
MARSHALL |
Memphis |
7 |
30-23 |
|
ARKANSAS STATE |
Southern Mississippi |
1 |
28-27 |
|
T C U |
Stanford |
11 |
24-13 |
|
CONNECTICUT |
Virginia |
17 |
31-14 |
|
Oklahoma |
WASHINGTON |
16 |
40-24 |
|
Ohio State |
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA |
2 |
19-17 |
|
L S U |
North Texas |
47 |
50-3 |
|
Utah |
UTAH STATE |
23 |
30-7 |
|
SAN JOSE STATE |
San Diego State |
6 |
24-18 |
|
BOISE STATE |
Bowling Green |
11 |
35-24 |
|
Arizona |
NEW MEXICO |
15 |
38-23 |
|
ARIZONA STATE |
U n l v |
30 |
42-12 |
|
FRESNO STATE |
Wisconsin |
Pk |
31-31 to OT |
|
This Week’s Games–Mean Ratings |
||
|
Home Team in CAPS |
(N) Denotes Neutral Site |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Thursday, September 11 |
|
|
|
Favorite |
Underdog |
Mean Prediction |
|
RUTGERS |
North Carolina |
31-24 |
|
|
|
|
|
Friday, September 12 |
|
|
|
Favorite |
Underdog |
Mean Prediction |
|
SOUTH FLORIDA |
Kansas |
24-23 |
|
|
|
|
|
Saturday, September 13 |
|
|
|
Favorite |
Underdog |
Mean Prediction |
|
California |
MARYLAND |
28-16 |
|
ILLINOIS |
UL-Lafayette |
45-17 |
|
MICHIGAN STATE |
Florida Atlantic |
30-13 |
|
Navy |
DUKE |
28-27 |
|
CLEMSON |
North Carolina State |
31-14 |
|
BUFFALO |
Temple |
28-24 |
|
IOWA |
Iowa State |
35-24 |
|
MISSOURI |
Nevada |
44-21 |
|
BAYLOR |
Washington State |
28-26 |
|
TENNESSEE |
Alabama-Birmingham |
38-7 |
|
Ball State |
AKRON |
31-24 |
|
EASTERN MICHIGAN |
Toledo |
30-28 |
|
Central Michigan |
OHIO U |
24-23 |
|
East Carolina |
TULANE |
26-10 |
|
Georgia |
SOUTH CAROLINA |
27-20 |
|
TEXAS |
Arkansas |
34-17 |
|
Oregon |
PURDUE |
41-30 |
|
Penn State |
SYRACUSE |
35-7 |
|
B Y U |
U c l a |
27-21 |
|
Michigan |
NOTRE DAME |
17-12 |
|
Air Force |
HOUSTON |
28-24 |
|
VIRGINIA TECH |
Georgia Tech |
21-13 |
|
OREGON STATE |
Hawaii |
35-28 |
|
Western Michigan |
IDAHO |
31-21 |
|
Auburn |
MISSISSIPPI STATE |
23-10 |
|
ALABAMA |
Western Kentucky |
28-3 |
|
TEXAS TECH |
S m u |
48-14 |
|
KENTUCKY |
Middle Tennessee |
24-3 |
|
NEBRASKA |
New Mexico State |
40-14 |
|
VANDERBILT |
Rice |
42-27 |
|
MARSHALL |
Memphis |
34-27 |
|
Southern Mississippi |
ARKANSAS STATE |
31-30 |
|
T C U |
Stanford |
34-17 |
|
CONNECTICUT |
Virginia |
21-13 |
|
Oklahoma |
WASHINGTON |
42-23 |
|
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA |
Ohio State |
30-21 |
|
L S U |
North Texas |
45-0 |
|
Utah |
UTAH STATE |
28-3 |
|
SAN JOSE STATE |
San Diego State |
20-16 |
|
BOISE STATE |
Bowling Green |
42-24 |
|
Arizona |
NEW MEXICO |
31-17 |
|
ARIZONA STATE |
U n l v |
38-14 |
|
Wisconsin |
FRESNO STATE |
28-26 |
Wisconsin-Fresno State Preview
Vegas: Wisconsin by 1 Over/Under of 50½
PiRate: Wisconsin by Pk
Mean: Wisconsin by 2
Strategy: None
Fresno State opened the season by slaughtering Rutgers in New Jersey. They played on September 1, and the Bulldogs will have had 12 days to prepare for this game by Saturday. Quarterback Tom Brandstater tossed for 216 yards, while FSU picked off RU’s Mike Teel twice. The Bulldogs shut out the Scarlet Knights for more than three quarters.
The Badgers spotted Marshall a 14-0 lead last Saturday at Camp Randall Stadium; the Thundering Herd’s game plan was to sell out to stopping P.J. Hill’s running. Hill couldn’t find a hole early, and Wisconsin was forced to pass. Allan Evridge began tossing the ball all over the place, and he topped 300 yards passing. UW ran the ball in short yardage situations and near the goal line, and it led to 51 unanswered points.
This will be a different game for the Badgers. They cannot afford to spot FSU two touchdowns, because they aren’t going to catch up if that happens. The Badgers have gone west twice in recent years, and they won albeit by nothing close to what they were supposed to have won. They edged a weak Arizona team 9-7 and pulled out a late victory over a fired up, but not strong UNLV team 20-13.
Fresno State has lost eight consecutive games to ranked teams, with their last victory over a rank team coming against Kansas State in 2004. Of course, the Bulldogs come into this game ranked for the first time in three seasons.
I look for this game to be lower scoring than the Badger’s first two games, but I don’t foresee a 9-7 outcome either. This game will be decided by Evridge’s arm. If he can continue to throw the ball like he did last week, Fresno will not be able to stop Hill and the passing attack. If Evridge cannot move the team through the air, then the Bulldogs will be able to stop the running game, as they have a much better defense than Marshall or Akron. I call this one a real tossup.
Vanderbilt-Rice Preview
Vegas: Vanderbilt by 7
PiRate: Vanderbilt by 18
Mean: Vanderbilt by 15
Strategy: Vanderbilt -7 and -300
If you are a college football fan and live close to Nashville, I advise you to make it to Vanderbilt Stadium for this game. You can tape the USC-Ohio State game and watch it later. This game will be worth the price of buying a ticket. Rice is a smaller version of Texas Tech. Quarterback Chase Clement may be the most underrated signal caller in college football. His play brings up memories of Roger Staubach, John Elway, Greg Landry, and Joe Kapp. He leads the Owls in rushing too. He runs the spread offense about as well as it can be run. On top of that, the kid refuses to lose, much like former Texan Bobby Layne. In the last six games, he has led Rice to 271 points (45.2 per game).
Clement has a seasoned offensive line blocking for him, and he has an excellent corps of receivers catching his passes. Jarrett Dillard is a sensational possession receiver, and he knows how to get open in the end zone. Tight end James Casey is a bruiser at 6-4 and 245, and he leads the team with 17 receptions for 261 yards in two games. He’s more than a tight end, as he can line up in the backfield and run the ball as well as pass the ball ala Darren McFadden. He’s also a dandy blocker. This offense will score points on any defense.
Rice’s defense is another story. The Owls make enemy quarterbacks look as good as Clement. Their pass defense is an Achilles’ heal. Their run defense is a little better, but they have yet to face a potent running attack. The last good running opponent they faced was Tulane last year, and Matt Forte lit them up.
Vanderbilt has shot out of the gate with a 2-0 record for the second time in four years. Coach Bobby Johnson has had this team close to breaking through in recent years, and this looks like his strongest team yet. It all starts with a defense that looks like it is on par with some of the better SEC teams. The Commodores shut down South Carolina’s offense for most of the night last Thursday; the early touchdown they surrendered came about when the offense fumbled the ball and gave it to the Gamecocks in the Red Zone. The secondary picked off Chris Smelley twice and nearly had a third that could have gone back all the way.
The Vanderbilt offense was not up to par in this game, but it will change this week. Look for the Commodores to find Rice’s defense to be easier to attack than opening game opponent Miami, and Vandy scored 34 points in that one. As long as Jared Hawkins stays healthy in this game, I see him topping 100 yards and maybe getting more than 150. Quarterback Chris Nickson has not enjoyed a great passing game since 2006 at Kentucky, but he has a chance to match that effort when he threw for close to 450 yards.
Vanderbilt has not topped 50 points in a game against a Division I-A (FBS) opponent since 1990, when they did so against Ohio U. I give the Commodores a 25-30% chance of doing so in this game. The Commodores will move to 3-0 after winning this four hour game by a score of something like 45-38.
Playable Games According To The PiRates
Last week, I gave you nine playable games, and five of them came up winners for a so-so 55.6% success. Combined with a 16-10 record on opening weekend, that makes this exercise 21-14 for 60% so far this year. Aside from the two recommendations I gave you above in the Vanderbilt-Rice game, there are seven other playable games this week according to the PiRate and Mean Ratings. Some of these scare me, but who am I to argue with these ratings. Here they are:
East Carolina -12½ vs. Tulane
Arkansas +24 vs. Texas
Oregon -8 vs. Purdue
Kentucky -16 vs. Middle Tennessee
Marshall -3½ vs. Memphis
LSU -41½ vs. North Texas
Arizona -10½ vs. New Mexico
Come by Friday afternoon for a complete preview of all 16 NFL games this weekend. The NFL picks finished a nice 6-3 in week one, and the “bank account” has some of the house’s money to play with this weekend.
The Pi-Rate Ratings 