A PiRate Look At The 2008 NCAA Basketball Tournament
March 18, 2008 (1st Update)
Yesterday, I gave you my Bracketnomics 505 crash course, where I relayed what I thought were the most pertinent statistical criteria to look at when filling out your brackets. If you have read that story and earned your M.S. in Bracketnomics, now is the time to work on your doctorate. Let’s apply the criteria to this year’s Field of 65, and then use tonight’s play-in game between Coppin State and Mount St. Mary’s as an example.
Here’s how I have been taking the criteria listed yesterday and applying numerical grades to it to come up with a list of contenders, dark horses, and pretenders.
1. Scoring Margin
Award 5 points for every team with a scoring margin difference of 10 or more
Award 3 points for every team with a scoring margin difference of 8.0-9.9
Award 1 point for every team with a scoring margin difference of 5.0-7.9
Award 0 points for every team with a scoring margin difference of 0-4.9
Award -3 points for every team with a negative scoring margin
2. Field Goal % Margin
Award 5 points for every team with a FG% margin difference of 10% or more
Award 3 points for every team with a FG% margin difference of 7.5 to 9.9
Award 1 point for every team with a FG% margin difference of 5.0-7.4
Award 0 points for every team with a FG% margin difference of 0.0-4.9
Award -3 points for every team with a FG% margin difference below 0
3. Rebound Margin
Award 3 points for every team with a Rebound margin difference of 5 or more
Award 1 point for every team with a Rebound margin difference of 3.0-4.9
Award 0 points for every team with a Rebound margin difference of 0-2.9
Award -2 points for every team with a Rebound margin difference below 0
4. Turnover Margin
Award 3 points for every team with a Turnover margin difference of 3 or more
Award 1 point for every team with a Turnover margin difference of 1.5-2.9
Award 0 points for every team with a Turnover margin difference of 0-1.4
Award -2 points for every team with a Turnover margin below 0
3&4. R+T (add to the individual 3 and 4 above)
My formula for R+T is [R + ({.2*S}*{1.2*T})] Where R is rebounding margin, S is avg. steals per game, and T is turnover margin
Award 5 points for every team with an R+T of 10 or more
Award 3 points for every team with an R+T of 7.5-9.9
Award 1 point for every team with an R+T of 5-7.4
Award 0 points for every team with an R+T of 0-4.9
Completely eliminate from consideration all teams with a negative R+T
5. Schedule Strength
There are no point values assigned here. Use this to compare when looking at team vs. team. Take the difference in the Strength of Schedule as given by cbs.sportsline.com and multiple it by 100. For example, Davidson’s SOS is .5252 and North Carolina’s is .5921. If they face each other, give the Tar Heels an extra 7 criteria points [(.5921-.5252)*100]=6.69 rounds to 7
If you want to compile all this information yourself, the best way is to go to all 65 official athletic websites of the teams in the Big Dance. That’s where I found my statistical information. Some of these stats are available in other places, but I have already found many to be riddled with mistakes or not up-to-date. All 65 school sites are accurate and timely.
Tomorrow, Wednesday, I will report on the criteria scores for the 64 remaining schools in the NCAA Tournament. I will review the first round contests by applying the criteria. There is one game tonight-the play-in match in Dayton between Mount St. Mary’s and Coppin State. Let’s take a look at the game PiRate style.
Mount St. Mary’s 18-14
Point Differential: 2.6
FG% Differential: 3.1
Rebound Margin: -1.4
TO Margin: 0.7
Stls/G: 7.3
R+T: -0.17
Score: -2 & Eliminate From Consideration due to negative R+T
Schedule: .4924
Coppin State 16-20
Point Differential: -6.0
FG% Differential: -4.3
Rebound Margin: -4.4
TO Margin: 1.9
Stls/G: 7.2
R+T: -1.12
Score: -7 & Eliminate From Consideration due to negative R+T
Schedule: .4796
Schedule Points: Mount St. Mary’s +1.28
Neither of these two teams has any chance of advancing past Friday. I don’t think either one could beat any of the #15 seeds this year. Enjoy this game much like you would enjoy watching batting practice prior to a Major League game. Mount St. Mary’s has a criteria score that is six points better, but both teams come under the guise of elimination based upon their negative R+T scores. When this happens, we throw out the criteria scores. So, we must pick our winner based on other variables.
Coppin State was 4-19 and then went 12-1 to finish 16-20. That 12-1 finish is eye-popping, even when it came within the MEAC. Mount St. Mary’s won eight of their final nine, including three decisive wins in the NEC Tourney. I’ll take The Mount to come through with a win by about nine points with a score around 71-62.
The Pi-Rate Ratings 