A PiRate Look at the NCAA Basketball Conference Tournaments
March 14, 2008, 8th Update
Conference Tournament Results through Thursday, March 13, 2008
Concluded Tournaments
Atlantic Sun
Quarterfinals
#4 East Tennessee 81 #5 Lipscomb 74
#6 Gardner-Webb 82 #3 Stetson 63
#2 Jacksonville 65 #7 Mercer 57
#1 Belmont 75 #8 Campbell 66
Semifinals
Jacksonville 89 Gardner-Webb 80
Belmont 69 East Tennessee 65
Saturday, March 8
Championship
Belmont 79 Jacksonville 61
Automatic Qualifier: Belmont 25-8 Avg. RPI 75.3
At-Large Teams: 0
Bubble: None
Big Sky
Saturday, March 8
Quarterfinals
#4 Idaho State 67 #5 Montana 65
#3 Weber State 65 #6 Montana State 49
Tuesday, March 11 @ Portland, OR
Semifinals
#1 Portland State 72 Idaho State 61
#2 Northern Arizona 75 Weber State 70
Wednesday, March 12 @ Portland, OR
Championship Game
Portland State 67 Northern Arizona 51
Automatic Qualifier: Portland State 23-9 Avg. RPI 84.3
Portland State will pose problems for a first-round opponent not used to playing against a team that overplays the passing lanes. If the Vikings snatch away double figure steals, they can compete in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. PSU will have problems with a physical, inside muscle team that knows how to take care of the ball, like a Michigan State.
At-Large Teams: 0
Bubble: None
Big South
Opening Round
#1 UNC-Asheville 87 #8 Charleston Southern 63
#4 Liberty 103 #5 VMI 88
#2 Winthrop 76 #7 Radford 45
#3 High Point 59 #6 Coastal Carolina 56
Semifinals
UNC-Asheville 75 Liberty 57
Winthrop 61 High Point 53
Saturday, March 8 @ Asheville, NC
Championship Game
Winthrop 66 UNC-Asheville 48
Automatic Qualifier: Winthrop 22-11 Avg. RPI 103.5
At-Large Teams: 0
Bubble: None
Colonial Athletic Association
All Games Played At Richmond, VA (Virginia Commonwealth host team)
#9 Towson State 81 #8 Towson State 66
#5 William & Mary 58 #12 Georgia State 57
#6 Delaware 60 #11 Drexel 51
#7 Northeastern 73 #10 James Madison 59
Saturday, March 8
Quarterfinals
#1 Virginia Commonwealth 57 Towson State 46
William & Mary 63 #4 Old Dominion 60
#3 UNC-Wilmington 82 Delaware 59
#2 George Mason 63 Northeastern 52
Sunday, March 9
Semifinals
William & Mary 56 Virginia Commonwealth 54
George Mason 53 UNC-Wilmington 41
Monday, March 10
Championship Game
George Mason 68 William & Mary 59
Automatic Qualifier: George Mason 23-10 Avg. RPI 57.3
At-Large Teams: 0 or 1
Bubble: Virginia Commonwealth 24-7 RPI Avg.: 57.8 [Still needs help]
Horizon League
All Games Played At Indianapolis (Butler host team)
Opening Round
#3 Wright State 60 #10 Detroit 37
#6 Valparaiso 75 #7 UW-Green Bay 67
#4 Illinois-Chicago 70 #9 Youngstown State 59
#8 Loyola (Chi.) 57 #5 UW-Milwaukee 51
Quarterfinals
Valparaiso 72 Wright State 67
Illinois-Chicago 60 Loyola (Chi.) 49
Saturday, March 8
Semifinals
#2 Cleveland State 78 Valparaiso 73
#1 Butler 66 Illinois-Chicago 50
Tuesday, March 11
Championship
Butler 70 Cleveland State 55
Automatic Qualifier: Butler 29-3 Avg. RPI 15.5
At-Large Teams: 0
Bubble: None (Cleveland State is just below the Bubble and should get a bid to the NIT)
Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference
All Games Played At Albany, NY (Siena host team)
Opening Round
#8 Manhattan 73 #9 St. Peter’s 59
#10 Canisius 64 #7 Iona 59
Saturday, March 8
Quarterfinals
#1 Siena 66 Manhattan 58
#4 Loyola (Md.) 64 #5 Fairfield 59
#2 Rider 75 Canisius 71
#6 Marist 66 #3 Niagara 62
Sunday, March 9
Semifinals
Siena 65 Loyola (Md.) 63
Rider 76 Marist 71
Monday, March 10
Championship Game
Siena 74 Rider 53
Automatic Qualifier: Siena 22-10 Avg. RPI 71.5
At-Large Teams: 0
Bubble: None
Missouri Valley @ St. Louis (Arch Madness)
Opening Round
#8 Indiana State 71 #9 Wichita State 67
#7 Missouri State 69 #10 Evansville 46
Quarterfinals
#1 Drake 68 Indiana State 46
#4 Creighton 74 #5 Bradley 70
#2 Illinois State 63 Missouri State 58
#6 Northern Iowa 54 #3 Southern Illinois 49
Saturday, March 8
Semifinals
Drake 75 Creighton 67
Illinois State 56 Northern Iowa 42
Sunday, March 9
Championship
Drake 79 Illinois State 49
Automatic Qualifier: Drake 28-4 Avg. RPI 11.3
At-Large Teams: 0 or 1
Bubble: Illinois State 23-9 RPI avg. 35.5 [Beginning to look safe]
Creighton 21-10 RPI avg. 48.8 [added to bubble watch due to upsets]
Northeast
Quarterfinal
#1 Robert Morris 64 #8 Monmouth 50
#4 Mt. St. Mary’s 80 #5 Quinnipiac 70
#2 Wagner 71 #7 Long Island 62
#3 Sacred Heart 84 #6 Central Connecticut State 71
Sunday, March 9
Semifinals
Mt. St. Mary’s 83 Robert Morris 65
Sacred Heart 55 Wagner 49
Wednesday, March 12
Championship
Mt. St. Mary’s 68 Sacred Heart 55
Automatic Qualifier: Mount St. Mary’s 18-14 Avg. RPI 155.8
The Mount won its three tournament games by an average score of 77-63 thanks to great shooting and the ability to hustle on the boards. That worked against the NEC, but it won’t be enough to get past the first round in the Big Dance. This is a #16-seed that will make a quick exit.
At-Large Teams: 0
Bubble: None
Ohio Valley Conference
Quarterfinals @ Higher Seed
#1 Austin Peay 76 #8 Eastern Kentucky 51
#4 UT-Martin 101 #5 Samford 94 3ot
#2 Murray State 77 #7 Tennessee Tech 74
#6 Tennessee State 68 #3 Morehead State 61
Semifinals @ Nashville
Austin Peay 78 UT-Martin 77
Tennessee State 83 Murray State 75
Saturday, March 8
Championship
Austin Peay 82 Tennessee State 64
Automatic Qualifier: Austin Peay 24-10 Avg. RPI 79.5
At-Large Teams: 0
Bubble: None
Southern Conference
All Games Played At Charleston, SC (College of Charleston host team)
Opening Round
#8 Wofford 58 #9 Western Carolina 49
#7 Elon 52 #10 Furman 37
#6 Charleston 66 #11 Citadel 48
Saturday, March 8
Quarterfinals
#1 Davidson 82 Wofford 49
#5 UNC-Greensboro 63 #4 Appalachian State 46
Elon 60 #2 Chattanooga 57
Coll. of Charleston 87 #3 Georgia Southern 73
Sunday, March 9
Semifinals
Davidson 82 UNCG 52
Elon 75 Charleston 61
Monday, March 10
Championship Game
Davidson 65 Elon 49
Automatic Qualifier: Davidson 26-6 Avg. RPI 26.8
At-Large Teams: 0
Bubble: None
Summit League @ Tulsa (Oral Roberts host team)
Saturday, March 8
Quarterfinals
#1 Oral Roberts 84 #8 Centenary 56
#2 IUPUI 69 #7 Missouri-Kansas City 65
Sunday, March 9
Quarterfinals
#5 IPFW 66 #4 Southern Utah 62
#3 Oakland 80 #6 Western Illinois 66
Monday, March 10
Semifinals
Oral Roberts 58 IPFW 42
IUPUI 80 Oakland 65
Tuesday, March 11
Championship
Oral Roberts 71 IUPUI 64
Automatic Qualifier: Oral Roberts 24-8 Avg. RPI 49.5
At-Large Teams: 0
Bubble: None (IUPUI’s RPI is too low for consideration)
Sunbelt Conference
1st Round
#8 New Orleans 65 #9 Denver 60
#4 Middle Tennessee 74 #13 Louisiana Monroe 69
#12 Troy 70 #5 Louisiana Lafayette 60
#6 North Texas 85 #11 Arkansas State 63
#7 Florida Atlantic 91 #10 Florida International 64
Sunday, March 9 @ Mobile, AL
Quarterfinals
South Alabama 81 New Orleans 77
Middle Tennessee 65 Troy 59
Western Kentucky 84 North Texas 70
Arkansas Little Rock 66 Florida Atlantic 60
Monday, March 10 @ Mobile, AL
Semifinals
Middle Tennessee 82 South Alabama 73
Western Kentucky 70 Arkansas-Little Rock 55
Tuesday, March 11 @ Mobile, AL
Championship
Western Kentucky 67 Middle Tennessee 57
Automatic Qualifier: Western Kentucky 27-6 Avg. RPI 35
At-Large Teams: 0 or 1
Bubble: South Alabama (Avg. RPI 35.8) [Looking Good after yesterday’s upsets]
West Coast Conference
All Games Played At San Diego (San Diego host team)
Opening Round
#5 San Francisco 79 # 8 Loyola Marymount 60
#6 Pepperdine 50 #7 Portland 48 ot
Saturday, March 8
Quarterfinals
#4 Santa Clara 51 San Francisco 50
#3 San Diego 75 Pepperdine 55
Sunday, March 9
#1 Gonzaga 52 Santa Clara 48
San Diego 75 #2 St. Mary’s 69 2ot
Monday, March 10
Championship Game
San Diego 69 Gonzaga 62
Automatic Qualifier: San Diego 21-13 Avg. RPI 90
At-Large Teams: 0, 1 or 2 (Gonzaga & St. Mary’s)
Bubble: St. Mary’s 25-6 Avg. RPI 37.3 [Should be safe thanks to Pac-10 teams losing]
Gonzaga 25-7 Avg. RPI 27.8 [Absolute certainty]
Ivy League Champion
Automatic Qualifier: Cornell 22-5 Avg. RPI 67
Clinched Automatic Berth in NCAA Tournament (14)
1. Cornell (22-5)-Ivy League Champion
2. Winthrop (22-11)-Big South Champion
3. Austin Peay (24-10)-Ohio Valley Champion
4. Belmont (25-8)-Atlantic Sun Champion
5. Drake (28-4)-Missouri Valley Champion
6. George Mason (23-10)-Colonial Champion
7. Siena (22-10)-Metro Atlantic Champion
8. Davidson (26-6)-Southern Champion
9. San Diego (21-13)-West Coast Champion
10. Oral Roberts (24-8)-Summit Champion
11. Western Kentucky (27-6)-Sunbelt Champion
12. Butler (29-3)-Horizon Champion
13. Mount St. Mary’s (18-14)-Northeast Champion
14. Portland State (23-9)-Big Sky Champion
17 Automatic and 34 at-large bids still to be determined
Active Tournaments
America East
1st Three Rounds At Binghamton, NY. Championship Game At Higher Seed
Opening Round
#8 Stony Brook 73 vs. #9 Maine 65 ot
Saturday, March 8
Quarterfinals
#1 Md. Balt. Co. 76 Stony Brook 60
#4 Vermont 65 #5 Binghamton 57
#2 Hartford 68 #7 New Hampshire 65
#6 Boston U. 68 #3 Albany 64 ot
Sunday, March 9
Semifinals
Md. Balt. Co. 73 Vermont 64
Hartford 59 Boston U. 52
Saturday, March 15
Championship Game
Hartford 18-15 at Maryland-Baltimore Co. 23-8
At-Large Teams: 0
Bubble: None
UMBC didn’t have to play Binghamton, and that made their task much easier. Hartford had a tough time with two weak opponents to get this far, and the clock will strike midnight for them Saturday. While these two teams split a pair of one-point games during the regular season, I believe UMBC should win this rubber match by 10 or more points and earn their first trip to the Big Dance, where they could be a #14 seed. Of particular interest in this championship game will be the match-up of two, small, but beefy forwards. Hartford’s Warren McLendon and UMBC’s Darryl Proctor will battle it out for close to 40 minutes and make this game worth watching.
Atlantic Coast @ Charlotte, NC
Thursday, March 13
Opening Round
#9 Florida State 70 #8 Wake Forest 60
#5 Miami 63 #12 North Carolina State 50
#7 Georgia Tech 94 #10 Virginia 76
#11 Boston College 71 #6 Maryland 68
Friday, March 14
Quarterfinals
#1 North Carolina 29-2 vs. Florida State 19-13
#4 Virginia Tech 18-12 vs. Miami 22-9
#2 Duke 26-4 vs. Georgia Tech 15-16
#3 Clemson 22-8 vs. Boston College 14-16
Saturday, March 15
Semifinals
UNC-FSU vs. VT-Mia.
Duke-GT vs. Clem-BC
Sunday, March 16
Championship Game
Duke and North Carolina are more than likely headed to a rubber game Sunday, but keep an eye on Miami and Clemson. The Hurricanes are a solid team capable of going deep into the NCAA Tournament, but they can be inconsistent and lose a game they should win. Clemson has something to prove after last season’s crash and burn.
You can kiss Maryland’s chances goodbye after the Terps blew a nice lead against Boston College and lost. Should American lose in the American Patriot League Championship game, they would be a great opening round NIT opponent for the Terps.
Virginia Tech and Florida State still have work to do and need upset wins today.
At-large Teams: 4, 5, or 6 (UNC-2, Duke-4, Clem-21, Miami-30.3)
Bubble: Virginia Tech (Avg RPI 61), Florida State ( Avg RPI 64)
Atlantic 10 @ Atlantic City, NJ
Wednesday, March 12
Opening Round
#8 Dayton 63 St. Louis 62 ot
#5 St. Joseph’s 80 #12 Fordham 62
#7 LaSalle 82 #10 Duquesne 79
#6 Charlotte 75 #11 Rhode Island 73
Thursday, March 13
Quarterfinals
#1 Xavier 74 Dayton 65
St. Joseph’s 61 #4 Richmond 47
#2 Temple 84 LaSalle 75
Charlotte 69 #3 Massachusetts 65
Friday, March 14
Semifinals
Xavier 27-5 vs. St. Joseph’s 20-11
Temple 19-12 vs. Charlotte 20-12
Saturday, March 15
Championship Game
At-large Teams: 1 or 2 (Xavier [9 RPI] for sure,
Bubble: U Mass (43 RPI), Dayton (great RPI Avg. of 31.3), St. Joe’s (52.3 RPI)
U Mass blew a huge lead and lost to Charlotte in a mild to moderate upset. Now Charlotte gets Temple, and the winner will more than likely play Xavier for the title. The Musketeers must first dispose of St. Joe’s, and it will be a tough game. The Hawks are now one big upset win from moving squarely into bubbleville.
Temple needs to get to the finals to have any bubble chances, but the Owls are talented enough to earn the automatic bid.
I believe Dayton has the chance to be the team with the highest RPI that is left out of the Dance.
Big East @ Madison Square Garden in NYC
Wednesday, March 12
Opening Round
#8 Villanova 82 #9 Syracuse 63
#5 West Virginia 58 #12 Providence 53
#7 Pittsburgh 70 #10 Cincinnati 64
#6 Marquette 67 #11 Seton Hall 54
Thursday, March 13
Quarterfinals
#1 Georgetown 82 Villanova 63
West Virginia 78 #4 Connecticut 72
Pittsburgh 76 #2 Louisville 69 ot
Marquette 89 #3 Notre Dame 79
Friday, March 14
Semifinals
Georgetown 26-4 vs. West Virginia 24-9
Pittsburgh 24-9 vs. Marquette 24-8
Saturday, March 15
Championship Game
West Virginia took control of the game early and held off to beat Connecticut. I think the Mountaineers are going to give Georgetown a great game, and if their legs are not tired, WVU could pull off the upset.
Pittsburgh is playing its best ball since early in the season, and Marquette has possibly looked like the best team in the tournament to date. The semifinal doubleheader today is going to be dynamite.
At-large Teams: 7 or 8 (G’town, UL, ND, UConn, WVU, Marq., Pitt all have RPIs under 40)
Bubble: Villanova (avg. RPI 51.3) [It looks iffy for the Wildcats-50-50]
Big 10 @ Indianapolis, IN
Thursday, March 13
Opening Round
#9 Michigan 55 #8 Iowa 47
#10 Illinois 64 #7 Penn State 63
#6 Minnesota 55 #11 Northwestern 52
Friday, March 14
Quarterfinals
#1 Wisconsin 26-4 vs. Michigan 10-21
#4 Michigan State 24-7 vs. #5 Ohio State 19-12
#2 Purdue 24-7 vs. Illinois 14-18
#3 Indiana 25-6 vs. Minnesota 19-12
Saturday, March 15
Semifinals
Wisc.-Mich vs. MSU-OSU
Purd-Ill. Vs. IU-MN
Sunday, March 16
Championship Game
This tournament is about to get exciting. I believe at least three of today’s lower seeds have a reasonable chance of pulling off the upset and giving some bubble teams’ coaches and players another couple of sleepless nights. Ohio State beating Michigan State would only be a mild upset, but these two teams can both take advantage of the other’s weaknesses.
Illinois has looked really good in many of their losses this year, and while they aren’t about to make a run to the Sweet 16, the Illini could upset Purdue today. The Boilermakers didn’t finish strong, and I’m not sure they are going to pull out of this late-season tailspin.
Minnesota is not playing for an at-large bid, but Tubby Smith is an outstanding conference tournament preparer. I think the Gophers have an outside shot at winning this thing and securing an automatic bid. Indiana is not the same club they were with Kelvin Sampson, and the Hoosiers are ripe for the upset today. The Gophers couldn’t have asked for a better draw (the same goes for Illinois).
Only Wisconsin appears safe today. The Badgers should methodically and slowly pull away from Michigan. I expect a final in the range of 65-50.
At-large Teams: 4 or 5 (Wisconsin–12, Purdue-35.8, Indiana-17.3, Michigan State-13.5)
Bubble: Ohio State-45 (still needs to prove their worth)
Big 12 @ Kansas City
Thursday, March 13
Opening Round
#9 Oklahoma State 76 #8 Texas Tech 72
#12 Colorado 91 #5 Baylor 84 2ot
#7 Nebraska 61 #10 Missouri 56
#6 Texas A&M 60 #11 Iowa State 47
Friday, March 14
Quarterfinals
#1 Texas 26-5 vs. Oklahoma State 17-14
#4 Oklahoma 21-10 vs. Colorado 12-19
#2 Kansas 28-3 vs. Nebraska 19-11
#3 Kansas State 20-10 vs. Texas A&M 23-9
Saturday, March 15
Semifinals
Texas-OK St vs. Okla-Color
Kans-Nebr vs. K-St-A&M
Sunday, March 16
Championship Game
We have a #12-seed still alive in the quarterfinals, and if Colorado upsets Oklahoma today, the fans in Boulder may have to light up a couch or two on Arapahoe and Broadway. The loss hurt, but didn’t kill Baylor’s chances of getting an at-large berth.
An Oklahoma State upset over Texas could bump the Cowboys up enough spots in the RPI to get them into the discussion should they then beat Oklahoma or Colorado tomorrow.
At first glance, you’d think Kansas has an easy game today and will beat Nebraska by as much as they did in the football season. However, this Cornhusker team is not that bad. Diminutive 5-7 guard Cookie Miller is worth the price of admission to watch, but big man Aleks Maric is the reason the ‘Huskers have an outside chance against Kansas today. Maric is probably the best player you have never heard of if you live outside the Big 12 region. The Aussie averages better than 16 points and 10 boards per game, and he has gotten better as the season has progressed, recording double-doubles in 12 of the last 13 games. In the last seven games, he has connected on better than 67% of his shots. The 6-11 and 270-pound bruiser makes Billy Paultz (for you old geezers like me) and Bill Laimbeer (for you younger old geezers) look like lambs.
The Kansas State and Texas A&M game could be one of the five best games of the entire day. State’s Michael Beasley wants to prove he is not only the best freshman in years, he wants to prove he’s the best power forward since Tim Duncan. Texas A&M has no Acie Law, and the Aggies are a step down from last year, but Coach Mark Turgeon has his squad probably one win away from wrapping up an at-large bid.
At-large Teams: 4 or 5 (Texas-5, Kansas-9, Oklahoma-24.8)
Bubble: Baylor-44.8, Kansas State-42.3, Texas A&M-47.3
Big West Tournament @ Anaheim, CA
Wednesday, March 12
Opening Round
#5 UC-Irvine 77 #8 Long Beach State 63
#7 UC-Riverside 62 Cal Poly 54
Thursday, March 13
Quarterfinals
#3 Cal State Fullerton 81 UC-Riverside 69
UC-Irvine 57 #4 Pacific 56
Friday, March 14
Semifinals
#1 UC Santa Barbara 23-7 vs. UC-Irvine 17-15
#2 Cal State Northridge 21-8 vs. Cal State Fullerton 22-8
Saturday, March 15
Championship Game
UC-Irvine, coming off two wins in two days, faces a rested top-seeded UCSB team that should pummel them if the Anteaters are fatigued. Cal State Fullerton and Cal State Northridge should hook up in a close game, and the winner of that game could be fatigued in the final. Things are looking good for UCSB, but the other semifinal should produce a talented winner.
At-large Teams: 0
Bubble: None
Conference USA @ Memphis
Wednesday, March 12
Opening Round
#5 Southern Miss. 59 #12 Rice 50
#9 Tulane 48 #8 Marshall 47
#7 Tulsa 66 #10 East Carolina 49
#6 UTEP 71 #11 SMU 49
Thursday, March 13
Quarterfinals
#1 Memphis 75 Tulane 56
Southern Mississippi 68 #4 Central Florida 62
Tulsa 78 #2 Ala.-Birmingham 68 ot
UTEP 80 #3 Houston 77
Friday, March 14
Semifinals
Memphis 31-1 vs. Southern Miss. 19-13
Tulsa 19-12 vs. UTEP 19-12
Saturday, March 15
Championship Game
The two teams that could have earned at-large bids both lost, so the only way CUSA will get two teams into the Dance is if someone knocks off Memphis. I can’t see it happening.
At-large Teams: 0 or 1 (Memphis has 99.99% chance of winning automatic bid)
Bubble: None
Mid-American Conference @ Cleveland
Wednesday, March 12
Opening Round
#8 Toledo 52 #9 Bowling Green 48
#5 Miami (O) 69 #12 Buffalo 68
#7 Eastern Michigan 59 #10 Ball State 55
#6 Central Michigan 83 #11 Northern Illinois 71
Thursday, March 13
Quarterfinals
#1 Kent State 77 Toledo 57
Miami (O) 74 #4 Ohio U 61
#2 Western Michigan 70 Eastern Michigan 61
#3 Akron 81 Central Michigan 60
Friday, March 14
Semifinals
Kent State 26-6 vs. Miami (O) 17-14
Western Michigan 20-11 vs. Akron 22-9
Saturday, March 15
Championship Game
Can Miami upset Kent State and destroy another bubble team’s weekend? They might have the right emotional oomph to pull off the trick. The Golden Flashes are already in the tournament win or lose, while Miami must win the tournament.
Akron is technically the lower seed in the other semifinal, but the Zips are clearly the favorite in their match with WMU and the team with the best shot of beating Kent State.
At-large Teams: 1 (Kent State avg. RPI 28.5)
Bubble: None
MEAC @ Raleigh, NC
Tuesday, March 11
Opening Round
#7 Coppin State 55 #10 Howard 54
#8 South Carolina State 78 #9 Bethune Cookman 69
Wednesday, March 12
Opening Round
#6 Florida A&M 70 Maryland Eastern Shore 61
Quarterfinal Round
Coppin State 75 Hampton 74 ot
Morgan State 77 South Carolina State 68
Thursday, March 13
Quarterfinal Round
#3 Norfolk State 69 Florida A&M 61
#4 Delaware State 64 #5 North Carolina A&T 62
Friday, March 14
Semifinal Round
Morgan State 21-9 vs. Delaware State 14-15
Coppin State 14-20 vs. Norfolk State 16-14
Saturday, March 15
Championship Game
Note: There will be a bonus game prior to the Championship Game to be played between North Carolina Central (3-26) and Winston-Salem State (12-17), two future MEAC teams.
Here is an example of how an abnormal seeding could hurt this conference. Coppin State is the surprise team in this tournament. They have made it to the semifinal round against Norfolk State. Because Hampton was expected to win this game as the #2-seed, their loss to CSU gives the Eagles an extra day to rest and prepare for this game.
Morgan State is still alive, and they represent the MEAC’s best chance of pulling off a first-round win.
At-large Teams: 0
Bubble: None
Mountain West @ Las Vegas
Wednesday, March 12
Opening Round
#9 Colorado State 68 #8 Wyoming 63
Thursday, March 13
Quarterfinals
#1 BYU 89 Colorado State 62
#4 San Diego State 53 #5 Air Force 49
#2 UNLV 89 #7 TCU 88
#6 Utah 82 #3 New Mexico 80 ot
Friday, March 14
Semifinals
BYU 26-6 vs. San Diego State 20-11
UNLV 24-7 vs. Utah 17-13
Saturday, March 15
Championship Game
UNLV barely survived at home in the first round, while New Mexico saw its NCAA at-large dreams quashed. Utah will catch a more focused Runnin’ Rebels squad today, and I expect Coach Lon Kruger to have his team ready against Utah. The Utes were overly extended yesterday just like UNLV. I expect the Rebs to win.
BYU will have a tougher time today against San Diego State than they did yesterday against Colorado State. The Aztecs had a close, but not exerted, game with Air Force.
At-large Teams: 2 (BYU [Avg. RPI 25.3], UNLV [Avg. RPI 25.5)
Bubble: New Mexico (Avg. RPI 58.5) [Almost assuredly out of contention]
Pac-10 @ The Staples Center in Los Angeles
Wednesday, March 12
Opening Round
#9 California 84 #8 Washington 81
#7 Arizona 87 #10 Oregon State 56
Thursday, March 13
Quarterfinals
#1 UCLA 88 California 66
#4 Southern Cal 59 #5 Arizona State 55
#2 Stanford 75 Arizona 64
#3 Washington State 75 Oregon 70
Friday, March 14
Semifinals
UCLA 29-3 vs. Southern Cal 21-10
Stanford 25-6 vs. Washington State 24-7
Saturday, March 15
Championship Game
So much for the grudge match. I guess UCLA had an axe to grind, and they sharpened their blades on Cal. The sharp edges then did more damage, as two or three bubble teams heard the bursting sound. Oregon, Arizona State, and possibly Arizona are now in trouble.
Today’s UCLA-USC semifinal match marks the first time the two Los Angeles schools have faced off in the Pac-10 Tournament. Having the game at The Staples Center makes it all the more exciting. The two teams won on the other’s home court this year.
The Stanford-Washington State nightcap will not be as exciting. Washington State games generally are slow, passive games, and Stanford doesn’t have the type of talent to force the Cougars into a faster tempo. It should be close, but not one to remember.
At-large Teams: 4 or 5 (UCLA-6, Stanford-16, Washington State-21.3, Southern Cal-28.5)
Bubble: Arizona-39.8 , Oregon-55.8 (‘Zona is probably okay, but Ducks are in trouble)
Patriot League
Quarterfinals
#1 American 62 #8 Holy Cross 60
#5 Army 64 #4 Lehigh 61 ot
#7 Bucknell 87 #2 Navy 86 3ot
#3 Colgate 76 #6 Lafayette 74
Sunday, March 9
Semifinals
American 72 Army 60
Colgate 54 Bucknell 40
Friday, March 14
Championship
Colgate 18-13 at American 20-11
At-Large Teams: 0
Bubble: None
This should be a close game, and it wouldn’t surprise me if it went to overtime. American beat Colgate twice by eight points this year, and I expect the Red Raiders to be ready to exact some revenge.
American has won nine of its last 10 games, and the Eagles have the best backcourt in the Patriot League. In tournaments, guard play is very important, as the backcourt that makes more errors or forces the fewer errors usually comes from the losing team. I’ll go with American in this one, which will allow Coach Jeff Jones to get back to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since he was at Virginia in the 1990’s.
Southeastern @ Atlanta
Thursday, March 13
Opening Round
#5E South Carolina 77 #4W LSU 73
#3E Vanderbilt 93 #6W Auburn 82
#5W Alabama 80 #4E Florida 69
#6E Georgia 97 #3W Ole Miss 95 ot
Friday, March 14
Quarterfinals
#1E Tennessee 28-3 vs. South Carolina 14-17
#2W Arkansas 20-10 vs. Vanderbilt 26-6
#1W Mississippi St. 21-9 vs. Alabama 17-15
#2E Kentucky 18-11 vs. Georgia 14-16
Saturday, March 15
UT-USC vs. Ark-Vand.
MSU-Ala vs. UK-UGa
Sunday, March 16
Championship Game
As Chester A. Riley (the 1940’s and 50’s radio character played by William Bendix) used to say, “What a revoltin’ development this is!” Ole Miss and Florida took quick exits, and the SEC is down to five teams going dancing unless a surprise team cuts down the nets Sunday.
As Secret Agent Maxwell Smart used to say, “Would you believe,” Would you believe Alabama and Georgia are still playing in Atlanta. This Tide team looked more like C.M. Newton’s Alabama squads of the mid-1970’s, while Georgia looked like a team trying to save a coach they love from having to file unemployment insurance.
Agent 86 also was famous for saying, “Missed it by that much,” and that’s what I think Vanderbilt, Alabama, and Georgia will be saying today. Arkansas, Mississippi State, and Kentucky should win close games that go down to the wire.
As the Lone Ranger used to say, “Hi-yo Silver, Away!” Today, we will be saying that to Dave Odom, as he coaches his last game at South Carolina and rides off into the sunset. Even though Tennessee has performed lousy in the SEC Tournament for more than a decade, I think the Vols will come out and put a whippin’ on the garnet and black today. Devan Downey would have to have a career day, and Evaldas Baniulis would have to hit about seven treys for the Gamecocks to have a chance.
And as Lieutenant Columbo used to say, “Just one more thing.” Kentucky may end up with an RPI in the 50’s if they lose today, but we all know they will receive a bid to the Dance. It’s just like selecting Willie Mays to the All-Star game in 1973 when he was barely hitting .200. You will be able to “say hey” to Billy Gillispie’s team at a regional somewhere next week (I am not implying UK’s play to date has been like Willie Mays in 1973. The Cats are good enough to make it to the Sweet 16).
At-large Teams: 5 (Tennessee-1, Miss. State-39.8, Kentucky-49.8, Arkansas-40.8, Vanderbilt-10)
Bubble: Florida-71, Ole Miss-53.5 (see ya in the NIT Gators and Rebels)
Southland @ Katy, TX (near Houston)
Thursday, March 13
Quarterfinals
#1 Stephen F. Austin 71 #8 Texas San Antonio 60
#5 Northwestern State 71 #4 Southeast Louisiana 51
#7 UT-Arlington 81 #2 Lamar 75
#3 Sam Houston State 64 McNeese State 62 ot
Friday, March 14
Semifinals
Stephen F. Austin 26-4 vs. Northwestern State 14-17
UT-Arlington 19-11 vs. Sam Houston 23-7
Sunday, March 16
Championship Game
A Stephen F. Austin and Sam Houston State final would be exactly what the doctor ordered for this conference tournament. With all the upsets, SFA is back in the conversation as a possible at-large team, but only if they were to lose to Sam Houston. If UT-Arlington beats the Bearkats, then all bets are off.
The Lumberjacks didn’t look like world beaters yesterday, but their defense gave them a comfortable 11-point win over UT-San Antonio. They meet a Northwestern State team that will try to get them out of their comfort zone and into a running game. SFA prevented this from happening in their regular season tilt, and I expect more of the same today. The Lumberjacks have an overwhelming advantage inside and should control the boards and win by double digits.
Sam Houston walloped UT-Arlington twice during the regular season, dominating inside both times. While it is hard to beat a conference rival thrice in one season, sometimes a team just doesn’t match up well with an opponent. UTA hasn’t found an answer to SHS’s star player Ryan Bright or backcourt leader Shamir McDaniel. In the game in Arlington, the Mavericks watched Bearkat backup DeLuis Ramirez come off the bench and score a double-double.
At-large Teams: 0 or 1
Bubble: Stephen F. Austin-57.5 (road wins against Oklahoma and San Diego)
S W A C @ Birmingham
Wednesday, March 12
Quarterfinals
#1 Alabama State 67 #8 Texas Southern 49
#2 Mississippi Valley 79 #7 Grambling 73
Thursday, March 13
Quarterfinals
#6 Arkansas Pine Bluff 72 Alabama A&M 59
#4 Jackson State 56 #5 Southern 55
Friday, March 14
Semifinals
Alabama State 20-9 vs. Jackson St. 13-19
Mississippi Valley 15-15 vs. Arkansas-Pine Bluff 13-17
Saturday, March 15
Championship Game
With the top two seeds enjoying a day off yesterday, they will be well-rested and prohibitive favorites today. If Alabama State loses today or tomorrow, you can already put the SWAC Tournament Champion on the Play-in Bracket and do it in pen. Even if Alabama State wins, you can pencil them in that slot.
At-large Teams: 0
Bubble: None
WAC @ Las Cruces, NM
Tuesday, March 11
Opening Round
#8 San Jose State 64 Louisiana Tech 62
Thursday, March 13
Quarterfinal Round
#1 Utah State 85 San Jose State 65
#4 Boise State 80 Hawaii 74
#2 Nevada 64 #7 Fresno State 57
#3 New Mexico State 73 #6 Idaho 53
Friday, March 14
Semifinal Round
Utah State 24-9 vs. Boise State 23-8
Nevada 21-10 vs. New Mexico St. 20-13
Saturday, March 15
Championship Game
The top four seeds have made it to the semifinals, and that always makes for a great finish to a tournament. New Mexico State dominated on their home floor, but the remaining teams have what it takes to win in Las Cruces. Utah State looked strong yesterday, and the Aggies’ starters got some rest. That just may be enough to get them by Boise State today.
At-large Teams: 0
Bubble: None (Utah State has an avg. RPI of 65, which is too low)
The Pi-Rate Ratings 