A PiRate Look at the NCAA Basketball Conference Tournaments
March 13, 2008, 7th Update
Conference Tournament Results through Wednesday, March 12, 2008
Concluded Tournaments
Atlantic Sun
Quarterfinals
#4 East Tennessee 81 #5 Lipscomb 74
#6 Gardner-Webb 82 #3 Stetson 63
#2 Jacksonville 65 #7 Mercer 57
#1 Belmont 75 #8 Campbell 66
Semifinals
Jacksonville 89 Gardner-Webb 80
Belmont 69 East Tennessee 65
Saturday, March 8
Championship
Belmont 79 Jacksonville 61
Automatic Qualifier: Belmont 25-8 Avg. RPI 76
At-Large Teams: 0
Bubble: None
Big Sky
Saturday, March 8
Quarterfinals
#4 Idaho State 67 #5 Montana 65
#3 Weber State 65 #6 Montana State 49
Tuesday, March 11 @ Portland, OR
Semifinals
#1 Portland State 72 Idaho State 61
#2 Northern Arizona 75 Weber State 70
Wednesday, March 12 @ Portland, OR
Championship Game
Portland State 67 Northern Arizona 51
Automatic Qualifier: Portland State 23-9 Avg. RPI 84.3
Portland State will pose problems for a first-round opponent not used to playing against a team that overplays the passing lanes. If the Vikings snatch away double figure steals, they can compete in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. PSU will have problems with a physical, inside muscle team that knows how to take care of the ball, like a Michigan State.
At-Large Teams: 0
Bubble: None
Big South
Opening Round
#1 UNC-Asheville 87 #8 Charleston Southern 63
#4 Liberty 103 #5 VMI 88
#2 Winthrop 76 #7 Radford 45
#3 High Point 59 #6 Coastal Carolina 56
Semifinals
UNC-Asheville 75 Liberty 57
Winthrop 61 High Point 53
Saturday, March 8 @ Asheville, NC
Championship Game
Winthrop 66 UNC-Asheville 48
Automatic Qualifier: Winthrop 22-11 Avg. RPI 103.5
At-Large Teams: 0
Bubble: None
Colonial Athletic Association
All Games Played At Richmond, VA (Virginia Commonwealth host team)
#9 Towson State 81 #8 Towson State 66
#5 William & Mary 58 #12 Georgia State 57
#6 Delaware 60 #11 Drexel 51
#7 Northeastern 73 #10 James Madison 59
Saturday, March 8
Quarterfinals
#1 Virginia Commonwealth 57 Towson State 46
William & Mary 63 #4 Old Dominion 60
#3 UNC-Wilmington 82 Delaware 59
#2 George Mason 63 Northeastern 52
Sunday, March 9
Semifinals
William & Mary 56 Virginia Commonwealth 54
George Mason 53 UNC-Wilmington 41
Monday, March 10
Championship Game
George Mason 68 William & Mary 59
Automatic Qualifier: George Mason 23-10 Avg. RPI 58.5
At-Large Teams: 0 or 1
Bubble: Virginia Commonwealth 24-7 RPI Avg.: 57.8
Horizon League
All Games Played At Indianapolis (Butler host team)
Opening Round
#3 Wright State 60 #10 Detroit 37
#6 Valparaiso 75 #7 UW-Green Bay 67
#4 Illinois-Chicago 70 #9 Youngstown State 59
#8 Loyola (Chi.) 57 #5 UW-Milwaukee 51
Quarterfinals
Valparaiso 72 Wright State 67
Illinois-Chicago 60 Loyola (Chi.) 49
Saturday, March 8
Semifinals
#2 Cleveland State 78 Valparaiso 73
#1 Butler 66 Illinois-Chicago 50
Tuesday, March 11
Championship
Butler 70 Cleveland State 55
Automatic Qualifier: Butler 29-3 Avg. RPI 16
At-Large Teams: 0
Bubble: None (Cleveland State is just below the Bubble and should get a bid to the NIT)
Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference
All Games Played At Albany, NY (Siena host team)
Opening Round
#8 Manhattan 73 #9 St. Peter’s 59
#10 Canisius 64 #7 Iona 59
Saturday, March 8
Quarterfinals
#1 Siena 66 Manhattan 58
#4 Loyola (Md.) 64 #5 Fairfield 59
#2 Rider 75 Canisius 71
#6 Marist 66 #3 Niagara 62
Sunday, March 9
Semifinals
Siena 65 Loyola (Md.) 63
Rider 76 Marist 71
Monday, March 10
Championship Game
Siena 74 Rider 53
Automatic Qualifier: Siena 22-10 Avg. RPI 71.8
At-Large Teams: 0
Bubble: None
Missouri Valley @ St. Louis (Arch Madness)
Opening Round
#8 Indiana State 71 #9 Wichita State 67
#7 Missouri State 69 #10 Evansville 46
Quarterfinals
#1 Drake 68 Indiana State 46
#4 Creighton 74 #5 Bradley 70
#2 Illinois State 63 Missouri State 58
#6 Northern Iowa 54 #3 Southern Illinois 49
Saturday, March 8
Semifinals
Drake 75 Creighton 67
Illinois State 56 Northern Iowa 42
Sunday, March 9
Championship
Drake 79 Illinois State 49
Automatic Qualifier: Drake 28-4 Avg. RPI 11.8
At-Large Teams: 0 or 1
Bubble: Illinois State 23-9 RPI avg. 35.5
Northeast
Quarterfinal
#1 Robert Morris 64 #8 Monmouth 50
#4 Mt. St. Mary’s 80 #5 Quinnipiac 70
#2 Wagner 71 #7 Long Island 62
#3 Sacred Heart 84 #6 Central Connecticut State 71
Sunday, March 9
Semifinals
Mt. St. Mary’s 83 Robert Morris 65
Sacred Heart 55 Wagner 49
Wednesday, March 12
Championship
Mt. St. Mary’s 68 Sacred Heart 55
Automatic Qualifier: Mount St. Mary’s 18-14 Avg. RPI 156.3
The Mount won its three tournament games by an average score of 77-63 thanks to great shooting and the ability to hustle on the boards. That worked against the NEC, but it won’t be enough to get past the first round in the Big Dance. This is a #16-seed that will make a quick exit.
At-Large Teams: 0
Bubble: None
Ohio Valley Conference
Quarterfinals @ Higher Seed
#1 Austin Peay 76 #8 Eastern Kentucky 51
#4 UT-Martin 101 #5 Samford 94 3ot
#2 Murray State 77 #7 Tennessee Tech 74
#6 Tennessee State 68 #3 Morehead State 61
Semifinals @ Nashville
Austin Peay 78 UT-Martin 77
Tennessee State 83 Murray State 75
Saturday, March 8
Championship
Austin Peay 82 Tennessee State 64
Automatic Qualifier: Austin Peay 24-10 Avg. RPI 80.5
At-Large Teams: 0
Bubble: None
Southern Conference
All Games Played At Charleston, SC (College of Charleston host team)
Opening Round
#8 Wofford 58 #9 Western Carolina 49
#7 Elon 52 #10 Furman 37
#6 Charleston 66 #11 Citadel 48
Saturday, March 8
Quarterfinals
#1 Davidson 82 Wofford 49
#5 UNC-Greensboro 63 #4 Appalachian State 46
Elon 60 #2 Chattanooga 57
Coll. of Charleston 87 #3 Georgia Southern 73
Sunday, March 9
Semifinals
Davidson 82 UNCG 52
Elon 75 Charleston 61
Monday, March 10
Championship Game
Davidson 65 Elon 49
Automatic Qualifier: Davidson 26-6 Avg. RPI 29.8
At-Large Teams: 0
Bubble: None
Summit League @ Tulsa (Oral Roberts host team)
Saturday, March 8
Quarterfinals
#1 Oral Roberts 84 #8 Centenary 56
#2 IUPUI 69 #7 Missouri-Kansas City 65
Sunday, March 9
Quarterfinals
#5 IPFW 66 #4 Southern Utah 62
#3 Oakland 80 #6 Western Illinois 66
Monday, March 10
Semifinals
Oral Roberts 58 IPFW 42
IUPUI 80 Oakland 65
Tuesday, March 11
Championship
Oral Roberts 71 IUPUI 64
Automatic Qualifier: Oral Roberts 24-8 Avg. RPI 52.5
At-Large Teams: 0
Bubble: None (IUPUI’s RPI of 68 is too low for consideration)
Sunbelt Conference
1st Round
#8 New Orleans 65 #9 Denver 60
#4 Middle Tennessee 74 #13 Louisiana Monroe 69
#12 Troy 70 #5 Louisiana Lafayette 60
#6 North Texas 85 #11 Arkansas State 63
#7 Florida Atlantic 91 #10 Florida International 64
Sunday, March 9 @ Mobile, AL
Quarterfinals
South Alabama 81 New Orleans 77
Middle Tennessee 65 Troy 59
Western Kentucky 84 North Texas 70
Arkansas Little Rock 66 Florida Atlantic 60
Monday, March 10 @ Mobile, AL
Semifinals
Middle Tennessee 82 South Alabama 73
Western Kentucky 70 Arkansas-Little Rock 55
Tuesday, March 11 @ Mobile, AL
Championship
Western Kentucky 67 Middle Tennessee 57
Automatic Qualifier: Western Kentucky 27-6 Avg. RPI 38
At-Large Teams: 0 or 1
Bubble: South Alabama (Avg. RPI 39.3)
West Coast Conference
All Games Played At San Diego (San Diego host team)
Opening Round
#5 San Francisco 79 # 8 Loyola Marymount 60
#6 Pepperdine 50 #7 Portland 48 ot
Saturday, March 8
Quarterfinals
#4 Santa Clara 51 San Francisco 50
#3 San Diego 75 Pepperdine 55
Sunday, March 9
#1 Gonzaga 52 Santa Clara 48
San Diego 75 #2 St. Mary’s 69 2ot
Monday, March 10
Championship Game
San Diego 69 Gonzaga 62
Automatic Qualifier: San Diego 21-13 Avg. RPI 90
At-Large Teams: 0, 1 or 2 (Gonzaga & St. Mary’s)
Bubble: St. Mary’s 25-6 Avg. RPI 39.8
Gonzaga 25-7 Avg. RPI 27.8
Clinched Automatic Berth in NCAA Tournament (14)
1. Cornell (22-5)-Ivy League Champion
2. Winthrop (22-11)-Big South Champion
3. Austin Peay (24-10)-Ohio Valley Champion
4. Belmont (25-8)-Atlantic Sun Champion
5. Drake (28-4)-Missouri Valley Champion
6. George Mason (23-10)-Colonial Champion
7. Siena (22-10)-Metro Atlantic Champion
8. Davidson (26-6)-Southern Champion
9. San Diego (21-13)-West Coast Champion
10. Oral Roberts (24-8)-Summit Champion
11. Western Kentucky (27-6)-Sunbelt Champion
12. Butler (29-3)-Horizon Champion
13. Mount St. Mary’s (18-14)-Northeast Champion
14. Portland State (23-9)-Big Sky Champion
17 Automatic and 34 at-large bids still to be determined
Active Tournaments
America East
1st Three Rounds At Binghamton, NY. Championship Game At Higher Seed
Opening Round
#8 Stony Brook 73 vs. #9 Maine 65 ot
Saturday, March 8
Quarterfinals
#1 Md. Balt. Co. 76 Stony Brook 60
#4 Vermont 65 #5 Binghamton 57
#2 Hartford 68 #7 New Hampshire 65
#6 Boston U. 68 #3 Albany 64 ot
Sunday, March 9
Semifinals
Md. Balt. Co. 73 Vermont 64
Hartford 59 Boston U. 52
Saturday, March 15
Championship Game
Hartford 18-15 at Maryland-Baltimore Co. 23-8
At-Large Teams: 0
Bubble: None
UMBC didn’t have to play Binghamton, and that made their task much easier. Hartford had a tough time with two weak opponents to get this far, and the clock will strike midnight for them Saturday. While these two teams split a pair of one-point games during the regular season, I believe UMBC should win this rubber match by 10 or more points and earn their first trip to the Big Dance, where they could be a #14 seed. Of particular interest in this championship game will be the match-up of two, small, but beefy forwards. Hartford’s Warren McLendon and UMBC’s Darryl Proctor will battle it out for close to 40 minutes and make this game worth watching.
Atlantic 10 @ Atlantic City, NJ
Wednesday, March 12
Opening Round
#8 Dayton 63 St. Louis 62 ot
#5 St. Joseph’s 80 #12 Fordham 62
#7 LaSalle 82 #10 Duquesne 79
#6 Charlotte 75 #11 Rhode Island 73
Thursday, March 13
Quarterfinals
#1 Xavier 26-5 vs. Dayton 21-9
#4 Richmond 16-13 vs. St. Joseph’s 19-11
#2 Temple 18-12 vs. LaSalle 15-16
#3 Massachusetts 21-9 vs. Charlotte 19-12
Friday, March 14
Semifinals
1/8 winner vs. 4/5 winner
2/7 winner vs. 3/6 winner
Saturday, March 15
Championship Game
At-large Teams: 1 or 2 (Xavier [9 RPI] for sure, U Mass [41 RPI] maybe)
Bubble: U Mass, Dayton (great RPI Avg. of 30.8)
Xavier is in the Big Dance even if they drop their first A-10 Tournament game. U Mass finished the season on a roll, as Coach Travis Ford had his Minutemen playing like a Rick Pitino Kentucky team out of the 199o’s (gee, I wonder why?)
Rhode Island looked tourney-worthy a couple of months ago, but they went in the tank and are NIT-bound. Dayton beat St. Louis and must defeat Xavier to get to the semifinals and have a legitimate shot at an at-large berth. I don’t see that happening.
Keep an eye on Coach Fran Dunphy’s Temple Owls. They flew under the radar screen all year, but they have the talent to get to the finals Saturday. They should have little trouble against LaSalle, even though it’s a Philadelphi rivalry game, in the quarterfinals, and they match up well with U Mass in a probable semifinal match.
Big East @ Madison Square Garden in NYC
Wednesday, March 12
Opening Round
#8 Villanova 82 #9 Syracuse 63
#5 West Virginia 58 #12 Providence 53
#7 Pittsburgh 70 #10 Cincinnati 64
#6 Marquette 67 #11 Seton Hall 54
Thursday, March 13
Quarterfinals
#1 Georgetown 25-4 vs. Villanova 20-11
#4 Connecticut 24-7 vs. West Virginia 23-9
#2 Louisville 24-7 vs. Pittsburgh 23-9
#3 Notre Dame 24-6 vs. Marquette 23-8
Friday, March 14
Semifinals
1/8 vs. 4/5
2/7 vs. 3/6
Saturday, March 15
Championship Game
The Big East Tournament is always exciting, especially since the league expanded to 16 teams. By limiting the tourney to 12 teams, it usually means that eight or more teams have a realistic shot at winning the tournament. With the higher seeds winning in the opening round, it’s left the Big East with eight outstanding teams all whom should be in the Field of 65. The octet all possess 20 or more wins, and any of the group could cut down the MSG nets Saturday night. What more could you want?
Syracuse played themselves into the NIT by laying an egg yesterday against Villanova. I think the win put the Wildcats one win away from securing a spot into the Dance.
I think today’s West Virginia-Connecticut game will supply the eventual champion of this tournament. Both teams are playing their best ball right now, and this should be the game of the day.
At-large Teams: 7 or 8 (G’town, UL, ND, UConn, WVU, Marq., Pitt all have RPIs under 40)
Bubble: Villanova (avg. RPI 52)
Big West Tournament @ Anaheim, CA
Wednesday, March 12
Opening Round
#5 UC-Irvine 77 #8 Long Beach State 63
#7 UC-Riverside 62 Cal Poly 54
Thursday, March 13
Quarterfinals
#3 Cal State Fullerton 21-8 vs. UC-Riverside 9-20
#4 Pacific 21-9 vs. UC-Irvine 16-15
Friday, March 14
Semifinals
#1 UC Santa Barbara 23-7 vs. lowest remaining seed
#2 Cal State Northridge 21-8 vs. highest remaining seed
Saturday, March 15
Championship Game
The Big West rewards its top teams. The top two seeds receive byes to the semifinals, while teams three and four receive first round byes. In this type of seeding, the top two teams have huge advantages and almost always produce the tournament champion. I expect that to be true here. Cal State Fullerton and Pacific should win their quarterfinal games and give UCSB and CSN great semifinal games. It wouldn’t surprise me in the least to see the Titans or Tigers make it to the finals, but not both. If only one of the top two seeds advance to the Championship Game, I expect that team to win the automatic bid over the three or four-seed. UCSB has an excellent backcourt, and it’s the better backcourts that have been winning in conference tournament play so far. I expect them to beat CS-Fullerton for the Title.
At-large Teams: 0
Bubble: None
Conference USA @ Memphis
Wednesday, March 12
Opening Round
#5 Southern Miss. 59 #12 Rice 50
#9 Tulane 48 #8 Marshall 47
#7 Tulsa 66 #10 East Carolina 49
#6 UTEP 71 #11 SMU 49
Thursday, March 13
Quarterfinals
#1 Memphis 30-1 vs. Tulane 17-14
#4 Central Florida 16-14 vs. Southern Mississippi 18-13
#2 Ala.-Birmingham 22-9 vs. Tulsa 18-12
#3 Houston 22-8 vs. UTEP 18-12
Friday, March 14
Semifinals
1/9 vs. 4/5
2/7 vs. 3/6
Saturday, March 15
Championship Game
Back in the late 1930’s the talk every spring amongst the American League baseball teams centered on which team would finish second. It was a foregone conclusion that the Yankees would finish first by more than a dozen games. That’s what has become of CUSA basketball. Memphis is the murderer’s row of the league, and the only thing to decide is the team that will play the part of the Washington Generals to the Tigers in the Championship Game.
The opening day of this tournament couldn’t have been any more boring. This tournament should continue to be one worth skipping except for a possible UAB-Houston semifinal death match. The Blazers have the easier quarterfinal game, because UTEP could give the Cougars a good run for their money. The team that loses to Memphis in the finals should be on the upper half of the bubble, while the semifinal loser should see their bubble burst.
At-large Teams: 0 or 1 (Memphis has 99.99% chance of winning automatic bid)
Bubble: Tourney Runner-up if it is Houston (Avg. RPI 66) or UAB (Avg. RPI 46)
MEAC @ Raleigh, NC
Tuesday, March 11
Opening Round
#7 Coppin State 55 #10 Howard 54
#8 South Carolina State 78 #9 Bethune Cookman 69
Wednesday, March 12
Opening Round
#6 Florida A&M 70 Maryland Eastern Shore 61
Quarterfinal Round
Coppin State 75 Hampton 74 ot
Morgan State 77 South Carolina State 68
Thursday, March 13
Quarterfinal Round
#3 Norfolk State 15-14 vs. winner of Florida A&M 15-16
#4 Delaware State 13-15 vs. #5 North Carolina A&T 15-15
Friday, March 14
Semifinal Round
Morgan State 21-9 vs. Del. St.-NCAT
Coppin State 14-20 vs. Norfolk-FAMU-UMES
Saturday, March 15
Championship Game
Note: There will be a bonus game prior to the Championship Game to be played between North Carolina Central (3-26) and Winston-Salem State (12-17), two future MEAC teams.
Morgan State gives the MEAC its best chance to win an NCAA Tournament game, but it’s no given they will survive the MEAC Tournament. Even though the Golden Bears won 13 of their final 14 games, the MEAC Tournament is the Saratoga Race Track of the NCAA-it’s where champions get upset. Just ask Delaware State last year. The Hornets were more dominating in 2007 than Morgan State has been this year, but they fell to Florida A&M in the title game.
Who might be this season’s FAMU? I’d keep an eye on Jerry Eaves’ North Carolina A&T team. The Aggies have the depth to win three games in three days, and they have enough scoring options so that somebody will have a hot hand every game.
At-large Teams: 0
Bubble: None
Mid-American Conference @ Cleveland
Wednesday, March 12
Opening Round
#8 Toledo 52 #9 Bowling Green 48
#5 Miami (O) 69 #12 Buffalo 68
#7 Eastern Michigan 59 #10 Ball State 55
#6 Central Michigan 83 #11 Northern Illinois 71
Thursday, March 13
Quarterfinals
#1 Kent State 25-6 vs. Toledo 11-18
#4 Ohio U 19-11 vs. Miami (O) 16-14
#2 Western Michigan 19-11 vs. Eastern Michigan 14-16
#3 Akron 21-9 vs. Central Michigan 14-16
Friday, March 14
Semifinals
1/8 vs. 4/5
2/7 vs. 3/6
Saturday, March 15
Championship Game
It’s hard to imagine any of the four teams winning yesterday getting past today, except maybe Miami. There was a Grand Canyon-sized difference between the top four teams and the rest of the league. If the top four teams advance to the semifinals, it should make for exciting basketball on Friday and Saturday.
Kent State has a good shot at getting into the Big Dance if they lose on Saturday. It the Flashes fall on Friday, then it gets dicey. Ohio U can knock off the top-seed, and I give the Bobcats about a 45% chance of doing so if they meet in the semis. On the other side of the bracket, I expect #3-seed Akron to survive to the final round. The Zips were massacred at Western Michigan in perhaps their worst game of the season. They will get their revenge in a probable semifinal match.
At-large Teams: 1 (Kent State avg. RPI 27.3)
Bubble: None
Mountain West @ Las Vegas
Wednesday, March 12
Opening Round
#9 Colorado State 68 #8 Wyoming 63
Thursday, March 13
Quarterfinals
#1 BYU 25-6 vs. Colorado State 7-24
#4 San Diego State 19-11 vs. #5 Air Force 16-13
#2 UNLV 23-7 vs. #7 TCU 14-15
#3 New Mexico 24-7 vs. #6 Utah 16-13
Friday, March 14
Semifinals
1/9 vs. 4/5
2/7 vs. 3/6
Saturday, March 15
Championship Game
The Mountain West Conference always puts on a good show at tournament time. Being in Vegas makes it all the more worth attending. This year, the MWC has two at-large worthy teams in BYU and UNLV. I think both are safe regardless of how they fare in the MWC Tournament. The question then is can another team win the automatic bid, allowing three teams to make it to the Dance? The answer is yes! When he was at Southwest Missouri and Iowa, Coach Steve Alford’s teams performed above their regular season level come tourney time. He won the Big 10 Tournament one season with a mediocre team. This year, he has a rather strong New Mexico team, and the Lobos are more than capable of cutting down the nets Saturday. They will have to get past the host Runnin’ Rebels to make it to the title game, but the Lobos are talented enough to do it. UNM won eight of their final nine games, with the lone loss being an overtime heartbreak against BYU.
The other possible surprise in this tournament could be San Diego State. After losing their regular season finale to the Falcons, the Aztecs should beat Air Force in the quarterfinals, and they could be primed to upset BYU in the semis. During the regular season, SDSU matched up well with the top-seeded Cougars.
At-large Teams: 2 (BYU [Avg. RPI 24.8], UNLV [Avg. RPI 26.8)
Bubble: New Mexico (Avg. RPI 52.5)
Pac-10 @ The Staples Center in Los Angeles
Wednesday, March 12
Opening Round
#9 California 84 #8 Washington 81
#7 Arizona 87 #10 Oregon State 56
Thursday, March 13
Quarterfinals
#1 UCLA 28-3 vs. California 16-14
#4 Southern Cal 20-10 vs. #5 Arizona State 19-11
#2 Stanford 24-6 vs. Arizona 19-13
#3 Washington State 23-7 vs. Oregon 18-12
Friday, March 14
Semifinals
1/9 vs. 4/5
2/7/10 vs. 3/6
Saturday, March 15
Championship Game
The Pac-10 Tournament became all the more power-charged last night when California pulled out a last second victory over Washington. Tonight, Cal gets its rematch with UCLA after the Bruins got away with cheating in a victory over the Bears a week ago. I expect this to be a physical game, and it wouldn’t surprise me if it got out of hand at some point. Expect to see several foul shots attempted.
The USC-Arizona State game today will be an interesting one to watch. The Trojans finished the regular season winning five of six games, and that one loss came at Arizona State. The Sun Devils need to win at least two games and maybe the tournament to get into the Dance.
Arizona couldn’t have asked for a better first round match with lifeless Oregon State. The Beavers couldn’t compete in the Big West this year, much less the Pac-10, and they were cooked before the first TV timeout last night. Wildcat Acting Coach Kevin O’Neill rested his regulars, and they should be fresh against Oregon. The Ducks must win to have any chance at all of an at-large bid, while Arizona is iffy right now. A Wildcat win will secure them a spot in the Dance.
At-large Teams: 4 or 5 (UCLA-6, Stanford-18, Washington State-21.5, Southern Cal-31)
Bubble: Arizona-37 , Arizona State-71.8, Oregon-54.8
Patriot League
Quarterfinals
#1 American 62 #8 Holy Cross 60
#5 Army 64 #4 Lehigh 61 ot
#7 Bucknell 87 #2 Navy 86 3ot
#3 Colgate 76 #6 Lafayette 74
Sunday, March 9
Semifinals
American 72 Army 60
Colgate 54 Bucknell 40
Friday, March 14
Championship
Colgate 18-13 at American 20-11
At-Large Teams: 0
Bubble: None
This should be a close game, and it wouldn’t surprise me if it went to overtime. American beat Colgate twice by eight points this year, and I expect the Red Raiders to be ready to exact some revenge.
American has won nine of its last 10 games, and the Eagles have the best backcourt in the Patriot League. In tournaments, guard play is very important, as the backcourt that makes more errors or forces the fewer errors usually comes from the losing team. I’ll go with American in this one, which will allow Coach Jeff Jones to get back to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since he was at Virginia in the 1990’s.
S W A C @ Birmingham
Wednesday, March 12
Quarterfinals
#1 Alabama State 67 #8 Texas Southern 49
#2 Mississippi Valley 79 #7 Grambling 73
Thursday, March 13
Quarterfinals
#3 Alabama A&M 14-14 vs. #6 Arkansas Pine Bluff 12-17
#4 Jackson State 12-19 vs. #5 Southern 11-18
Friday, March 14
Semifinals
Alabama State 20-9 vs. Jackson St. or Southern
Mississippi Valley 15-15 vs. Ala. A&M or Ark.-PB
Saturday, March 15
Championship Game
Alabama State handily won the regular season SWAC title and became the only team to finish the year with a winning record. If they don’t win the conference tournament, this league will field possibly the weakest ever NCAA Play-in Round participant. They got past their first round opponent with relative ease and get a day off before facing the winner of today’s Jackson State-Southern game. That should help the Hornets get to the final round. All basketball fans need to cheer the Hornets to victory, because no other SWAC team should have to face the humiliation of losing by 20-30 points in the play-in round. ASU can not only compete in the play-in, they could win the game.
At-large Teams: 0
Bubble: None
WAC @ Las Cruces, NM
Tuesday, March 11
Opening Round
#8 San Jose State 64 Louisiana Tech 62
Thursday, March 13
Quarterfinal Round
#1 Utah State 23-9 vs. San Jose State 13-18
#4 Boise State 22-8 vs. Hawaii 11-18
#2 Nevada 20-10 vs. #7 Fresno State 13-18
#3 New Mexico State 19-13 vs. #6 Idaho 8-20
Friday, March 14
Semifinal Round
Utah State-San Jose St. vs. Boise State-Hawaii
Nevada-Fresno State vs. New Mexico St.-Idaho
Saturday, March 15
Championship Game
In a conference where four teams tied for the regular season championship, it is obvious that the tournament will be interesting with lots of nail-biter games. If the four co-champions survive to the semifinal round, the WAC will be the talk of the West. You have to consider New Mexico State the favorite, as they are really tough to beat in Las Cruces. You have to pull for Utah State this year. Last season, the Aggies lost in the title game to New Mexico State 72-70. In 2006, they lost in overtime in the final to Nevada. One more basket in either year would have won the Championship for them.
Nevada wasn’t supposed to fare this well this season after losing superstar Nick Fazekas to graduation. Coach Mark Fox may be in the hunt for a big time job soon.
Unfortunately for this league, no team appears to be on the radar screen for at-large consideration. No team has an RPI average near bubble range.
At-large Teams: 0
Bubble: None (no team is in the 60’s in RPI)
Conference Tournaments Beginning Thursday, March 13
Atlantic Coast @ Charlotte, NC
Thursday, March 13
Opening Round
#8 Wake Forest 17-12 vs. #9 Florida State 18-13
#5 Miami 21-9 vs. #12 North Carolina State 15-15
#7 Georgia Tech 14-16 vs. #10 Virginia 15-14
#6 Maryland 18-13 vs. #11 Boston College 13-16
Friday, March 14
Quarterfinals
#1 North Carolina 29-2 vs. 8/9 winner
#4 Virginia Tech 18-12 vs. 5/12 winner
#2 Duke 26-4 vs. 7/10 winner
#3 Clemson 22-8 vs. 6/11 winner
Saturday, March 15
Semifinals
1/8/9 vs. 4/5/12
2/7/10 vs. 3/6/11
Sunday, March 16
Championship Game
It’s the ACC that we owe the idea of the post-season tournament and the shot clock. This league has always fielded a post-season tournament to decide its official NCAA Tournament team, even in the days when just one team went per major conference. Because of this, some underdogs decided to try to win by stalling the ball. In the days before a shot clock, it led to boring games some years and a downright farce in another year. North Carolina State upset Duke 12-10 in the semifinals 40 years ago. They upset South Carolina in the 1970 Championship Game by stalling and winning 42-39.
Thankfully, that can no longer happen. So, what do I expect from the 2008 ACC Tournament? I don’t expect a repeat of 1976 when second to last place (4-8 in the ACC) Virginia, led by Wonderful Wally Walker, upset North Carolina State, Maryland, and North Carolina (all ranked) to win the title. None of the bottom four teams have a chance. The middle four teams have some quality talent. I especially like Miami and expect the Hurricanes to beat NC State and Virginia Tech to earn a trip to the semifinals. Once there, they would almost assuredly face North Carolina, a team they fell to by 16 points at home. I don’t think they can get to the final, but a trip to the semis will give the ‘Canes a better seeding in the Dance.
Duke can be beaten inside, but in tournament play, it almost always comes down to backcourt play. The Blue Devils should comfortably win their quarterfinal match against either Georgia Tech or Virginia. Their semifinal game would pit them against Maryland or Clemson (or Boston College if the Eagles pulled off two upsets). This year, the Terps and Tigers didn’t handle the Duke offense too well. It means there is a good possibility that the big two could face off one more time for the ACC title. If Clemson could somehow survive and make it to the Championship Game against North Carolina, that would make for terrific copy. The Tar Heels have been Clemson’s nemesis for decades, and this season may have been the worst example. UNC beat CU twice in overtime.
As for the three bubble teams, in order to have a realistic shot, it’s semifinals or bust for the Hokies, Terps, and ‘Noles.
At-large Teams: 4, 5, or 6 (UNC, Duke, Clem, Miami)
Bubble: Virginia Tech, Maryland, Florida State
Big 10 @ Indianapolis, IN
Thursday, March 13
Opening Round
#8 Iowa 13-18 vs. #9 Michigan 9-21
#7 Penn State 15-15 vs. #10 Illinois 13-18
#6 Minnesota 18-12 vs. #11 Northwestern 8-21
Friday, March 14
Quarterfinals
#1 Wisconsin 26-4 vs. 8/9 winner
#4 Michigan State 24-7 vs. #5 Ohio State 19-12
#2 Purdue 24-7 vs. 7/10 winner
#3 Indiana 25-6 vs. 6/11 winner
Saturday, March 15
Semifinals
1/8/9 vs. 4/5
2/7/10 vs. 3/6/11
Sunday, March 16
Championship Game
I’ve had the opportunity to follow the Big 10 closer this season than ever before, and I have to say I was a little disappointed. I believe I am witnessing the same thing in basketball that happened to this conference in football. Four teams have incredible muscle and finesse, but none of them have the quickness to go deep into the tourney. I’d be surprised to see more than one team make the Sweet 16, and I don’t see any Big 10 team making the Final Four or maybe the Elite Eight.
Wisconsin lost two close games to Purdue but aced the rest of the league. Indiana braved a late-season coaching change and didn’t play as well under Dan Dakich. Purdue lost two of their final five games, while Michigan State split its final 10 games. Ohio State lost six times in February. So, the Badgers have to be considered the overwhelming favorite in Indianapolis. Among the also-rans, the winner of the Penn State and Illinois game has the best chance of breaking through with a big upset and crashing into the semifinals. That would mean Purdue would be a quarterfinal victim. I’d also keep a close eye on Minnesota. If Tubby Smith’s Gophers get by Northwestern (they should win by 15-20 points), they have a decent shot against Indiana in the next round. That could conceivably lead to Minnesota playing Illinois or Penn State for a berth in the finals. If the Gophers make it to Sunday, they would then have to get by arch-rival Wisconsin for a trip to the Big Dance. I’ll stick with the Badgers to win the tournament and enter NCAA play as the league’s one true threat to advance past the Sweet 16.
At-large Teams: 4 or 5 (Wisconsin, Purdue, Indiana, Michigan State)
Bubble: Ohio State
Big 12 @ Kansas City
Thursday, March 13
Opening Round
#8 Texas Tech 16-14 vs. #9 Oklahoma State 16-14
#5 Baylor 21-9 vs. #12 Colorado 11-19
#7 Nebraska 18-11 vs. #10 Missouri 16-15
#6 Texas A&M 22-9 vs. #11 Iowa State 14-17
Friday, March 14
Quarterfinals
#1 Texas 26-5 vs. 8/9 winner
#4 Oklahoma 21-10 vs. 5/12 winner
#2 Kansas 28-3 vs. 7/10 winner
#3 Kansas State 20-10 vs. 6/11 winner
Saturday, March 15
Semifinals
1/8/9 vs. 4/5/12
2/7/10 vs. 3/6/11
Sunday, March 16
Championship Game
No Big 12 team has appeared in the Final Four in the last four tournaments. The Big 12 placed two teams in the Final Four in both 2002 and 2003, but no league team has ever cut down the nets. Kansas won the title when they were in the Big Eight in 1988 and Big Seven in 1952. Can either drought end this year? Yes! Kansas and Texas both have the talent to make a run to the Final Four.
Kansas State is a wildcard team in this tournament. I don’t think the country’s best player, Michael Beasley, can carry the Wildcats to the Big 12 Tournament Championship, but KSU can beat any team in the league. They just cannot beat three teams in three days in my opinion.
Baylor and Texas A&M find themselves much in the same boat as Kansas State; they are both good enough to upset Kansas or Texas but not Kansas and Texas.
Oklahoma is better than Baylor and Texas A&M, and the Sooners are about on par with Kansas State. However, I don’t think OU can beat either Texas or Kansas, and they will have a tough enough time with Baylor in the quarterfinals. They might win that one, but they will exit in the semifinals against Texas.
Oklahoma State and Texas Tech will be an interesting first round match of coaches who are sons of legends. I think the offspring of Eddie Sutton will beat the offspring of Bobby Knight. As for the Cowboys, once they dispense of Tech, they just might give Texas the scare of their life; heck, they could catch the Longhorns napping and actually pull off the big upset. If that happens, OSU will be itching to exact some revenge on Oklahoma in the semis. If they make it to Sunday, and someone like Kansas State has knocked out Kansas, the ‘Pokes might be cutting down the nets. Thus, OSU is my dark horse choice if one of the big two does not win it.
At-large Teams: 4 or 5 (Texas, Kansas, Oklahoma, Baylor)
Bubble: Kansas State, Texas A&M
Southeastern @ Atlanta
Thursday, March 13
Opening Round
#5E South Carolina 13-17 vs. #4W LSU 13-17
#3E Vanderbilt 25-6 vs. #6W Auburn 14-15
#4E Florida 21-10 vs. #5W Alabama 16-15
#6E Georgia 13-16 vs. #3W Ole Miss 21-9
Friday, March 14
Quarterfinals
[A]: #1E Tennessee 28-3 vs. USC/LSU winner
[B]: #2W Arkansas 20-10 vs. Vand./Aub. Winner
[C]: #1W Mississippi St. 21-9 vs. Fla./Ala. Winner
[D]: #2E Kentucky 18-11 vs. Ga./OM winner
Saturday, March 15
A winner vs. B winner
C winner vs. D winner
Sunday, March 16
Championship Game
I wish the SEC would do like the rest of the basketball world and dissolve their divisions like the Big 12 and ACC do. It makes it hard to set up brackets when you have two of each numbered seed. That said, this tournament is up for grabs, and I do not expect the top-seeded Tennessee Volunteers to win it. The Vols have not fared well in the SEC Tournament during the Bruce Pearl era, and I’m not really sure he is concerned about winning it. The difference between a number one and number two seed is minimal, and his team would benefit from a few more days rest.
So, who should win the tournament? Let’s eliminate Kentucky, because they don’t have the depth, and their hot shooting is bound to come to an end.
Vanderbilt isn’t tough enough on the boards, and their only inside threat is too foul prone; also, they would have to win four games in four days, and they don’t have the mental toughness to do that.
Mississippi State has some questions in their backcourt. While their frontcourt can dominate anybody, I do not expect the Bulldogs to hide their backcourt deficiencies three consecutive days.
Arkansas has the talent to go the distance, so let’s make them one of the contenders.
Florida and Ole Miss are close to having their bubbles burst. Florida must win at least twice to have any chance, while Ole Miss must still be playing Sunday to get into the discussion. The Gators have the backcourt strength and just enough inside muscle to make a run to the title. Ole Miss should get by Georgia (if they do, I expect Bulldog Coach Dennis Felton to get the axe), and they have a decent shot against Kentucky on Friday. I think that’s as far as they can get in the tourney, if their third round opponent was Mississippi State or Florida. In the rare event that Alabama won twice, then the Rebels could make it to Sunday.
LSU was a much better team after John Brady left, and by the final weekend, the Tigers were a tough out. If they beat South Carolina in the opening round, they could be all Tennessee can handle Friday.
Auburn, South Carolina, and Alabama could all win their first game, but don’t expect to see any of them still alive on Saturday.
Georgia has mailed it in, and I’d be shocked if they play Ole Miss close in the first round.
Arkansas is my favorite to pull off the upset. Kentucky and Mississippi State have the next best chances to win, while Tennessee and Florida are the only other teams I think can win the title.
At-large Teams: 5 (Tennessee, Miss. State, Kentucky, Arkansas, Vanderbilt
Bubble: Florida, Ole Miss
Southland @ Katy, TX (near Houston)
Thursday, March 13
Quarterfinals
#1 Stephen F. Austin 25-4 vs. #8 Texas San Antonio 13-16
#4 Southeast Louisiana 17-12 vs. #5 Northwestern State 13-17
#2 Lamar 19-10 vs. #7 UT-Arlington 18-11
#3 Sam Houston State 22-7 vs. McNeese State 13-15
Friday, March 14
Semifinals
SFA/UTSA winner vs. SELA/NWST winner
Lamar/UTA winner vs. SHSY/MSU winner
Sunday, March 16
Championship Game
Until March 1st, there was a strong possibility that the Southland had a chance at putting two teams into the Field of 65. Stephen F. Austin won at Oklahoma and at San Diego earlier in the year and moved into the low 40’s in the RPI in late February. Then, the Lumberjacks lost at home to UT-Arlington, dropping them to the bottom of the bubble. While they still have an RPI in the same range as Virginia Tech and Villanova, they would only be up for at-large consideration if they lost in the Southland Tournament. One loss in the tournament would drop them 10 spots or more and out of contention, so the Lumberjacks must win the automatic bid to get into the Dance.
It’s no guarantee that SFA can waltz through this field. The Lumberjacks will have to defeat either Lamar, Sam Houston, or UT-Arlington in the Championship Game, and any one of that trio can outscore SFA.
At-large Teams: 0 or 1
Bubble: Stephen F. Austin (road wins against Oklahoma and San Diego)
The Pi-Rate Ratings 