The Pi-Rate Ratings

November 19, 2007

PiRate Ratings and Bowl Projections for Monday, November 19, 2007

Good bye Oregon and Oklahoma.  That leaves LSU, West Virginia, Ohio State, and the Kansas-Missouri winner as the four main contenders for the big prize.  If you ask me who would win in a 12 or 16-team tournament, I’m not sure any of these five would be the team I picked.  It’s not because these five teams aren’t the five best, but in a year like this who’s to say that a Boise State wouldn’t get to the finals?  Or, could Southern Cal decide to play like they were supposed to play and clobber everybody.  Remember, the PiRate Ratings will conduct a computer simulated 12-team playoff here in December.

There’s a new number one team in the PiRate Top 25.  With Oregon losing quarterback Dennis Dixon and the game to Arizona, West Virginia ascends to the top spot.  They won at Cincinnati by the margin they were expected to win.  LSU didn’t cover against lowly Ole Miss and thus dropped a little.  The difference in the top seven teams is just 1.44 points (West Virginia is 123.83 and Kansas is 122.39), and less than two touchdowns separate the number one and number 25 team.

PiRate Top 25 For Monday, November 19, 2007

No.

Team

Won

Lost

PiRate

1

West Virginia

9

1

124

2

Missouri

10

1

123

3

Ohio State

11

1

123

4

Southern Cal

9

2

123

5

Florida

8

3

123

6

L S U

10

1

123

7

Kansas

11

0

122

8

Oregon 

8

2

121

9

Arizona State

9

1

119

10

Virginia Tech

9

2

119

11

Georgia

9

2

118

12

South Florida

8

3

118

13

Boise State

10

1

117

14

Oklahoma

9

2

116

15

Cincinnati

8

3

116

16

Clemson

8

3

116

17

Oregon State

7

4

116

18

Utah

8

3

115

19

Texas

9

2

114

20

Tennessee

8

3

114

21

Arkansas

7

4

114

22

Boston College

9

2

113

23

Illinois

9

3

112

24

Wisconsin

9

3

112

25

Brigham Young

8

2

111

 

   PiRate Ratings By Conference

                                                         Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division

Conference

 

Overall

 

 

Team

Won

Lost

 

Won

Lost

Pts

Opp

Rating

Clemson

5

3

 

8

3

387

199

116

Boston College

5

2

 

9

2

328

220

113

Wake Forest

5

3

 

7

4

307

262

109

Florida State

4

4

 

7

4

263

218

109

Maryland

2

5

 

5

6

262

259

105

North Carolina St.

3

4

 

5

6

249

302

99

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Coastal Division

Conference

 

Overall

 

 

 

Team

Won

Lost

 

Won

Lost

Pts

Opp

Rating

Virginia Tech

6

1

 

9

2

318

164

119

Virginia 

6

1

 

9

2

268

191

110

Georgia Tech

4

4

 

7

4

296

200

104

North Carolina

2

5

 

3

8

234

280

100

Miami (FL)

2

5

 

5

6

233

284

97

Duke

0

7

 

1

10

201

378

83

Big East Conference

Conference

 

Overall

Team

Won

Lost

 

Won Lost

Pts

Opp

Rating

West Virginia

4

1

 

9

1

392

173

124

South Florida

3

3

 

8

3

382

211

118

Cincinnati

3

3

 

8

3

389

192

116

Connecticut

5

1

 

9

2

313

157

110

Rutgers

3

3

 

7

4

336

221

107

Louisville

2

4

 

5

6

381

339

105

Pittsburgh

2

3

 

4

6

224

234

97

Syracuse

1

5

 

2

9

166

366

86

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Big 10 Conference

Conference

 

Overall

Team

Won

Lost

 

Won

Lost

Pts

Opp

Rating

Ohio State

7

1

 

11

1

384

128

123

Illinois

6

2

 

9

3

345

234

112

Wisconsin

5

3

 

9

3

366

280

112

Penn State

4

4

 

8

4

365

211

111

Michigan St.

3

5

 

7

5

409

322

110

Michigan

6

2

 

8

4

313

243

108

Purdue

3

5

 

7

5

395

297

102

Indiana

3

5

 

7

5

389

321

99

Iowa

4

4

 

6

6

222

225

95

Northwestern

3

5

 

6

6

310

372

93

Minnesota

0

8

 

1

11

315

440

93

Big 12 Conference

North Division

Conference

Overall

 

Team

Won

Lost

Won

Lost

Pts

Opp

Rating

Missouri

6

1

10

1

469

253

123

Kansas 

7

0

11

0

504

156

122

Kansas St.

3

5

5

6

393

325

103

Colorado

3

4

5

6

266

302

100

Iowa St.

2

6

3

9

218

381

95

Nebraska

2

5

5

6

350

390

96

 

 

 

 

 

South Division

Conference

Overall

 

Team

Won

Lost

Won

Lost

Pts

Opp

Rating

Oklahoma

5

2

9

2

477

202

116

Texas

5

2

9

2

402

257

114

Oklahoma St.

4

3

6

5

384

302

110

Texas Tech

4

4

8

4

501

309

109

Texas A&M

3

4

6

5

308

283

106

Baylor

0

8

3

9

218

411

83

Conference USA

East Division

Conference

Overall

 

Team

Won

Lost

Won

Lost

Pts

Opp

Rating

Central Fla.

6

1

8

3

419

317

106

Southern Miss.

5

3

6

5

314

273

97

East Carolina

5

2

6

5

327

345

95

Marshall

2

5

2

9

252

372

91

Memphis

5

2

6

5

298

323

89

U A B

1

6

2

9

196

375

76

 

 

 

West Division

Conference

Overall

 

Team

Won

Lost

Won

Lost

Pts

Opp

Rating

Tulsa

5

2

8

3

440

371

99

Houston

6

2

7

4

377

353

97

Tulane

3

4

4

7

281

350

89

Rice

3

4

3

8

331

467

84

U T E P

2

5

4

7

383

409

81

S M U

0

7

1

10

288

422

81

Independents

Conference

Overall

 

Team

Won

Lost

Won

Lost

Pts

Opp

Rating

Navy

X

X

7

4

441

435

93

Notre Dame

X

X

2

9

176

331

92

Army

X

X

3

8

200

326

81

Western Ky.

X

X

7

4

372

223

78

Mid-American Conference

East Division

Division

Conference

Overall

 

Team

Won

Lost

 

Won

Lost

Won

Lost

Pts

Opp

Rating

Bowling Green

4

2

 

5

2

7

4

348

344

93

Miami (OH)

4

1

 

5

1

6

5

211

260

91

Ohio U

2

3

 

3

4

5

6

328

330

87

Buffalo

3

2

 

4

3

4

7

261

308

86

Temple

3

3

 

4

3

4

7

194

299

85

Akron

2

4

 

3

4

4

7

222

315

84

Kent St.

1

4

 

1

6

3

8

236

320

80

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

West Division

Division

 

Conference

Overall

 

 

 

Team

Won

Lost

 

Won

Lost

Won

Lost

Pts

Opp

Rating

Western Mich.

2

3

 

2

4

4

7

307

344

97

Ball St.

3

1

 

4

2

6

5

352

295

96

Central Mich.

4

1

 

5

1

6

5

369

424

93

Toledo

2

3

 

3

4

5

6

385

433

88

Eastern Mich.

3

3

 

3

4

4

8

290

374

87

Northern Illinois

0

4

 

1

5

2

9

208

343

78

Mountain West Conference

Conference

Overall

 

Team

Won

Lost

Won

Lost

Pts

Opp

Rating

Utah

5

2

8

3

296

170

115

Brigham Young

6

0

8

2

309

188

111

T C U

3

4

6

5

274

197

108

Air Force

6

2

9

3

353

232

106

New Mexico

4

3

7

4

271

241

97

Colorado St.

1

6

2

9

268

341

93

San Diego St.

3

3

4

6

241

320

90

Wyoming

2

5

5

6

205

275

86

U N L V

1

6

2

9

212

316

86

Pacific 10 Conference

Team

Won

Lost

Won

Lost

Pts

Opp

Rating

Southern Cal

5

2

8

2

307

160

123

Oregon 

5

2

8

2

409

232

121

Arizona St.

6

1

9

1

342

180

119

Oregon St.

5

3

7

4

303

249

116

Arizona

4

4

5

6

319

302

111

California

3

5

6

5

325

293

110

Washington 

2

6

4

7

317

336

110

U C L A

4

3

5

5

253

248

109

Washington St.

2

6

4

7

266

354

101

Stanford

2

6

3

7

201

305

95

Southeastern Conference

East Division

Conference

 

Overall

Team

Won

Lost

 

Won

Lost

Pts

Opp

Rating

Florida

5

3

 

8

3

 

472

278

123

Georgia

6

2

 

9

2

 

352

235

118

Tennessee

5

2

 

8

3

 

368

294

114

Kentucky

3

4

 

7

4

 

390

305

110

South Carolina

3

5

 

6

5

 

292

259

108

Vanderbilt

2

6

 

5

6

 

243

240

106

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

West Division

Conference

 

Overall

 

 

 

 

Team

Won

Lost

 

Won

Lost

 

Pts

Opp

Rating

L S U

6

1

 

10

1

 

434

191

123

Arkansas

3

4

 

7

4

 

428

259

114

Auburn

4

3

 

7

4

 

275

190

111

Mississippi St.

3

4

 

6

5

 

252

284

107

Alabama

4

3

 

6

5

 

312

245

105

Ole Miss

0

7

 

3

8

 

227

325

96

Sunbelt Conference

Conference

 

Overall

Team

Won

Lost

 

Won

Lost

Pts

Opp

Rating

Troy

5

0

 

7

3

331

250

101

La.-Monroe

3

3

 

5

6

265

321

91

M T S U

4

2

 

5

6

301

294

90

Fla. Atlantic

4

1

 

5

5

268

350

87

Arkansas St.

3

4

 

5

6

281

315

83

La.-Lafayette

3

3

 

3

8

274

413

83

North Texas

1

5

 

1

9

252

477

77

Fla. Int’l

0

5

 

0

10

120

395

71

Western Athletic Conference

 

 

 

Team

Won

Lost

 

Won

Lost

Pts

Opp

Rating

Boise St.

7

0

 

10

1

486

201

117

Hawaii

7

0

 

10

0

480

235

107

Fresno St.

5

2

 

6

4

312

271

99

Nevada

3

3

 

5

5

362

358

97

San Jose St.

3

4

 

4

7

218

328

91

La. Tech

4

3

 

5

6

239

319

88

Utah St.

1

6

 

1

10

223

387

84

Idaho

0

7

 

1

10

239

419

79

New Mexico St.

1

6

 

4

8

289

441

75

Bowl Projections

Navy is still the only team that knows for sure where they will be heading in the postseason.  Ohio State can almost make plans for Pasadena and the Rose Bowl, but if Oklahoma wins the Big 12 and either West Virginia or LSU loses, they could be back in the National Championship Game in New Orleans.

In the ACC, Boston College has clinched a spot in the ACC Title Game, and they will play the winner of this week’s Virginia-Virginia Tech game.  Clemson now must beat South Carolina to stay in shape for a Gator Bowl Bid.  The winner of the North Carolina State-Maryland game will earn the Humanitarian Bowl bid.  This week, it’s my turn to pick Maryland to be that lucky recipient of the blue field game.

In the Big East, West Virginia still must defeat Connecticut to take the conference crown.  The Huskies are prohibitive underdogs, but they weren’t expected to make it this far either.

In the Southeastern Conference, Alabama’s loss to Louisiana-Monroe throws a monkey wrench into the bowl situation.  A loss to Auburn will leave the Tide at 6-6.  South Carolina will finish 6-6 if they lose to Clemson.  Mississippi State would fall to 6-6 if Ole Miss takes the Egg Bowl, and Vanderbilt could finish 6-6 with a mild upset over Wake Forest.  If Tennessee beats Kentucky, then Georgia will walk into an at-large BCS bowl.  That means nine teams will get bowl bids.  If three or four teams finish 6-6, there will be a lot of lobbying for the one or two bowls available.  I wouldn’t be surprised if Commissioner Mike Slive arranged for one bowl to “overlook” a Kentucky or Arkansas in favor of a 6-6 team, so that the “jilted” 7-5 team can then fill an at-large spot somewhere else, giving the SEC 10 bowl teams.

The Big 10 is finished, and 10 of the 11 schools are bowl eligible.  Don’t count on Iowa or Northwestern getting a bowl.  I think Purdue will be the 7-5 team left out of the allotments, but the Boilermakers will definitely get an at-large invitation.

The Big 12 would have clinched a spot in the National Championship Game if Oklahoma had won Saturday night and then against Oklahoma State.  Now, if Oklahoma wins the Big12 title, they will be headed to the Fiesta Bowl and another conference will luck out.  This week’s Kansas-Missouri game is almost as important and crucial as last year’s Ohio State-Michigan game.

The Pac-10 is pretty much out of the national title picture.  Even if Arizona State blows out Southern Cal and Arizona, I cannot see them moving up to number two.  Southern Cal can still sneak into the Rose Bowl with wins over ASU and UCLA and an Oregon loss to either UCLA or Oregon State.  With Washington State losing to Oregon State, it means that Arizona and UCLA would have to post big upsets for the Pac-10 to fulfill all its bowl allotments.

Boise State has moved into contention for an at-large BCS bowl bid if they win convincingly at Hawaii.  If Hawaii wins the game, the Warriors are probably Sugar Bowl-bound.

It looks like there will be three teams with 7-5 records and no automatic bowl berth.  Since it looks like there will be three at-large bids available, it looks all the 6-6 teams looking for a bowl can put away the practice gear until spring.  The MAC looks to be sitting in the catbird seat again this year.  Four teams should finish with winning records, and the league has three bowl slots.  Ball State might be the lucky recipient of an at-large bid.  Joining the Cardinals and Purdue will be New Mexico.  The Lobos at 8-4 are not permitted to go to the New Mexico Bowl this year if an extra bowl eligible team emerges from the MWC.  TCU must beat a lowly San Diego State team to finish 7-5.  That will send New Mexico to an at-large bowl.

 

Bowl Tie-in Tie-in

PiRate Pick

PiRate Pick

Poinsettia MWC #2 Navy/At-Large

Utah 9-3

Navy 8-4

New Orleans Sunbelt #1 CUSA #3-4-5

Troy 9-3

East Carolina 7-5

Papa Johns CUSA #3-4-5 Big East #4-5

Southern Miss. 7-5

Rutgers 7-5

New Mexico W A C (no #) MWC #4

Nevada 7-5

T C U 7-5

Las Vegas MWC #1 Pac-10 #4-5

B Y U 9-3

[Purdue 7-5 *]

Hawaii W A C (no #) CUSA #3-4-5

Hawaii 11-1

Houston 8-4

Motor City Big 10 #7 MAC #1-2

Indiana 7-5

Bowling Green 8-4

Holiday Pac-10 #2 Big 12 #3

Southern Cal 9-3

Oklahoma 10-3

Champs Sports ACC #4 Big 10 #5

Virginia 9-3

Michigan 8-4

Texas Big 12 #8 CUSA #6

[New Mexico 8-4 *]

Memphis 7-5

Emerald Pac-10 #4-5 ACC #7

Oregon St. 7-5

Wake Forest 7-5

Meineke Car Care ACC #6 Big East #3

Florida St. 7-5

Cincinnati 9-3

Liberty CUSA #1 SEC #6-7

Cent. Florida 10-3

Alabama 6-6

Alamo Big 10 #4 Big 12 #4-5

Penn St. 8-4

Texas A&M 6-6

Independence SEC #8 Big 12 #7

Miss. State 7-5

Colorado 6-6

Armed Forces MWC #3 Pac-10 #6

Air Force 9-3

[Ball St. 7-5 *]

Sun Big East #2 @ Pac-10 #3

South Florida 9-3

California 7-5

Humanitarian W A C (no #) ACC #8

Fresno St. 8-4

Maryland 6-6

Music City ACC #5 SEC #6-7

Georgia Tech 7-5

Arkansas 7-5

Chick-Fil-A ACC #2 SEC #3-4-5

Clemson 9-3

Kentucky 7-5

Insight Big 12 #6 Big 10 #6

Oklahoma St. 6-6

Mich. State 7-5

Outback Big 10 #3 SEC #3-4-5

Wisconsin 9-3

Tennessee 9-4

Cotton SEC #3-4-5 Big 12 #2

Auburn 8-4

Texas 10-2

Gator Big 12 #4 @ ACC #3

Texas Tech 8-4

Boston Coll. 10-3

Capital One Big 10 #2 SEC #2

Illinois 9-3

Florida 9-3

Rose BCS BCS

Ariz. St. 11-1

Ohio St. 11-1

Sugar BCS BCS

West Va. 11-1

Boise St. 11-1

Fiesta BCS BCS

Georgia 10-2

Oregon 10-2

Orange BCS BCS

Va. Tech 11-2

Kansas 11-1

International MAC #3 Big East #4-5

Miami (O) 7-6

Connecticut 9-3

G M A C MAC #1-2 CUSA #2

Central Mich. 8-5

Tulsa 9-4

Nat’l Championship BCS #1 BCS #2

L S U 12-1

Missouri 12-1

[*] Fills a vacant slot because aligned conference cannot supply enough bowl eligible teams

@ These slots are interchangeable

Notre Dame will not be bowl eligible this year, so I have not included them in the tie-ins

 

Tuesday, November 20 Game

Middle Tennessee at Troy:  The PiRates favor Troy by 15 points with an expected score of 35-20.  The Mean Rating favors Troy by 14 points with an expected score of 35-21.

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