The Pi-Rate Ratings

November 11, 2007

PiRate Ratings and Bowl Projections for November 12, 2007

 PiRate Top 25 For November 12, 2007

No.

Team

Won

Lost

PiRate

1

Oregon 

8

1

126

2

L S U

9

1

125

3

West Virginia

8

1

124

4

Missouri

9

1

123

5

Southern Cal

9

2

123

6

Florida

7

3

123

7

Ohio State

10

1

122

8

Clemson

8

2

120

9

Kansas

10

0

119

10

Oklahoma

9

1

119

11

Arizona State

9

1

119

12

Georgia

8

2

118

13

Virginia Tech

8

2

117

14

Boise State

9

1

116

15

Cincinnati

8

2

116

16

Tennessee

7

3

116

17

Utah

7

3

116

18

Texas

9

2

114

19

Wisconsin

8

3

114

20

South Florida

7

3

114

21

Arkansas

6

4

114

22

California

6

4

113

23

Illinois

8

3

112

24

Oregon State

6

4

112

25

Penn State

8

3

111

                                   PiRates By Conference

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

Conference

 

Overall

 

 

Team

Won

Lost

 

Won

Lost

Pts

Opp

Rating

Clemson

5

2

 

8

2

370

179

120

Boston College

4

2

 

8

2

308

203

110

Florida State

3

4

 

6

4

239

202

109

Wake Forest

4

3

 

6

4

269

244

107

Maryland

2

4

 

5

5

246

235

105

North Carolina St.

3

3

 

5

5

231

264

101

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Coastal Division

Conference

 

Overall

 

 

 

Team

Won

Lost

 

Won

Lost

Pts

Opp

Rating

Virginia Tech

5

1

 

8

2

274

150

117

Virginia 

6

1

 

9

2

268

191

110

Georgia Tech

3

4

 

6

4

269

175

106

Miami (FL)

2

4

 

5

5

219

240

100

North Carolina

2

4

 

3

7

209

253

98

Duke

0

7

 

1

9

194

350

86

Big East Conference

Conference

 

Overall

Team

Won

Lost

 

Won Lost

Pts

Opp

Rating

West Virginia

3

1

 

8

1

364

150

124

Cincinnati

3

2

 

8

2

366

164

116

South Florida

2

3

 

7

3

327

194

114

Louisville

2

3

 

5

5

364

284

111

Connecticut

4

1

 

8

2

283

150

110

Rutgers

2

3

 

6

4

316

205

110

Pittsburgh

2

2

 

4

5

208

214

95

Syracuse

1

4

 

2

8

159

336

86

Big 10 Conference

Conference

 

Overall

Team

Won

Lost

 

Won

Lost

Pts

Opp

Rating

Ohio State

6

1

 

10

1

370

125

122

Wisconsin

4

3

 

8

3

325

246

114

Illinois

5

2

 

8

3

304

212

112

Penn State

4

3

 

8

3

334

176

111

Michigan St.

2

5

 

6

5

374

291

110

Michigan

6

1

 

8

3

310

229

109

Purdue

3

4

 

7

4

371

270

104

Iowa

4

4

 

6

5

203

197

98

Indiana

2

5

 

6

5

352

297

97

Northwestern

3

4

 

6

5

288

331

93

Minnesota

0

7

 

1

10

281

399

91

Big 12 Conference

North Division

Conference

Overall

 

Team

Won

Lost

Won

Lost

Pts

Opp

Rating

Missouri

5

1

9

1

420

221

123

Kansas 

6

0

10

0

459

149

119

Kansas St.

3

4

5

5

361

276

103

Colorado

3

4

5

6

266

302

100

Iowa St.

2

5

3

8

211

336

98

Nebraska

2

5

5

6

350

390

96

 

 

 

 

 

South Division

Conference

Overall

 

Team

Won

Lost

Won

Lost

Pts

Opp

Rating

Oklahoma

5

1

9

1

450

168

119

Texas

5

2

9

2

402

257

114

Oklahoma St.

3

3

5

5

339

288

108

Texas Tech

3

4

7

4

467

282

106

Texas A&M

3

4

6

5

308

283

106

Baylor

0

7

3

8

204

396

85

Conference USA

East Division

Conference

Overall

 

Team

Won

Lost

Won

Lost

Pts

Opp

Rating

Central Fla.

5

1

7

3

370

297

103

East Carolina

5

2

6

5

327

345

95

Southern Miss.

4

3

5

5

258

243

94

Marshall

2

4

2

8

224

337

90

Memphis

4

2

5

5

273

314

89

U A B

1

5

2

8

187

350

76

 

 

 

West Division

Conference

Overall

 

Team

Won

Lost

Won

Lost

Pts

Opp

Rating

Tulsa

5

2

7

3

391

332

101

Houston

5

2

6

4

342

325

98

Rice

3

3

3

7

300

422

88

Tulane

2

4

3

7

236

319

86

U T E P

2

4

4

6

353

353

85

S M U

0

6

1

9

268

373

85

Independents

Conference

Overall

 

Team

Won

Lost

Won

Lost

Pts

Opp

Rating

Navy

X

X

6

4

406

411

94

Notre Dame

X

X

1

9

148

324

90

Army

X

X

3

7

161

277

80

Western Ky.

X

X

6

4

320

211

78

Mid-American Conference

East Division

Division

Conference

Overall

 

Team

Won

Lost

 

Won

Lost

Won

Lost

Pts

Opp

Rating

Miami (OH)

3

1

 

4

1

5

5

204

260

92

Bowling Green

3

2

 

4

2

6

4

317

327

90

Buffalo

3

1

 

4

2

4

6

244

277

89

Ohio U

2

3

 

3

4

5

6

328

330

87

Kent St.

1

3

 

1

5

3

7

222

296

83

Temple

2

3

 

3

3

3

7

170

285

83

Akron

2

3

 

3

3

4

6

222

308

83

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

West Division

Division

 

Conference

Overall

 

 

 

Team

Won

Lost

 

Won

Lost

Won

Lost

Pts

Opp

Rating

Central Mich.

4

0

 

5

0

6

4

324

376

97

Ball St.

2

1

 

3

2

5

5

311

275

94

Western Mich.

2

3

 

2

4

3

7

279

325

94

Toledo

2

2

 

3

3

5

5

365

392

90

Eastern Mich.

2

3

 

2

4

3

8

242

329

83

Northern Illinois

0

4

 

1

5

2

8

184

308

77

Mountain West Conference

Conference

Overall

 

Team

Won

Lost

Won

Lost

Pts

Opp

Rating

Utah

4

2

7

3

268

160

116

Brigham Young

5

0

7

2

274

178

108

T C U

2

4

5

5

240

187

108

Air Force

5

2

8

3

298

209

103

New Mexico

4

2

7

3

261

213

96

San Diego St.

3

2

4

5

218

265

93

Colorado St.

1

6

1

9

226

307

93

Wyoming

2

4

5

5

195

240

89

U N L V

1

5

2

8

202

282

86

Pacific 10 Conference

 

 

 

Team

Won

Lost

Won

Lost

Pts

Opp

Rating

Oregon 

5

1

8

1

385

198

126

Southern Cal

5

2

8

2

307

160

123

Arizona St.

6

1

9

1

342

180

119

California

3

4

6

4

302

256

113

Oregon St.

4

3

6

4

251

232

112

U C L A

4

3

5

5

253

248

109

Arizona

3

4

4

6

285

278

108

Washington 

1

6

3

7

280

313

107

Washington St.

2

5

4

6

249

302

106

Stanford

2

6

3

7

201

305

95

Southeastern Conference

East Division

Conference

 

Overall

Team

Won

Lost

 

Won

Lost

Pts

Opp

Rating

Florida

5

3

 

7

3

 

413

258

123

Georgia

5

2

 

8

2

 

328

222

118

Tennessee

4

2

 

7

3

 

343

270

116

Kentucky

3

3

 

7

3

 

377

281

110

South Carolina

3

5

 

6

5

 

292

259

108

Vanderbilt

2

5

 

5

5

 

219

215

104

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

West Division

Conference

 

Overall

 

 

 

 

Team

Won

Lost

 

Won

Lost

 

Pts

Opp

Rating

L S U

5

1

 

9

1

 

393

167

125

Arkansas

2

4

 

6

4

 

383

228

114

Auburn

4

3

 

7

4

 

275

190

111

Alabama

4

3

 

6

4

 

298

224

110

Mississippi St.

3

3

 

6

4

 

221

239

107

Ole Miss

0

6

 

3

7

 

203

284

94

Sunbelt Conference

Conference

 

Overall

Team

Won

Lost

 

Won

Lost

Pts

Opp

Rating

Troy

5

0

 

7

3

331

250

101

M T S U

4

2

 

5

6

301

294

90

La.-Monroe

3

3

 

4

6

244

307

88

Fla. Atlantic

4

1

 

5

4

248

291

87

Arkansas St.

2

4

 

4

6

250

288

84

La.-Lafayette

2

3

 

2

8

236

385

83

North Texas

1

4

 

1

8

225

446

76

Fla. Int’l

0

4

 

0

9

92

357

71

Western Athletic Conference

 

 

 

Team

Won

Lost

 

Won

Lost

Pts

Opp

Rating

Boise St.

6

0

 

9

1

428

187

116

Hawaii

6

0

 

9

0

452

209

108

Fresno St.

5

2

 

6

4

312

271

99

Nevada

3

2

 

5

4

336

330

96

San Jose St.

3

3

 

4

6

195

301

91

La. Tech

3

3

 

4

6

212

296

88

Utah St.

0

6

 

0

10

188

370

81

New Mexico St.

1

5

 

4

7

272

406

80

Idaho

0

6

 

1

9

225

361

80

This Week’s Bowl Probabilities

 

Raise you hands if you predicted all of the newest round of upsets and surprise finishes this past weekend.  If your hand is up, you need to re-read the Ninth Commandment.

Where do we start?  Let’s go alphabetically by conference.  In the ACC, Virginia probably ended Miami’s bowl expectations.  Maryland upsetting Boston College just prolonged the Terps’ fate an extra week.  With road games at Florida St. and North Carolina St., UM is still looking at 5-7.  The Wolfpack’s win over North Carolina made it four straight wins, and they look like a virtual lock to rally from a 1-5 start to a bowl game.

In the Big East, Cincinnati has set up an interesting home game with West Virginia this week.  If the Bearcats can pull off the upset, they are headed to a BCS Bowl game.  Louisville’s loss to the Mountaineers means the Cardinals will have to win at South Florida and at home against Rutgers or it’s bye-bye bowl.

The Big 10 has 10 bowl eligible teams and seven bowl slots.  Ohio State’s loss means no National Championship Game (why does their 7-point loss to 7-3 Illinois hurt more than LSU’s 8-point loss to 7-3 Kentucky?).  One Big 10 team will finish with a 7-5 record and be forced to look for an at-large spot. 

The Big 12 is almost assured of getting a second BCS Bowl Bid, and because of that, this conference should leave one slot unfilled.  Kansas State has collapsed and is headed to 5-7.  The Colorado-Nebraska winner will get a bowl bid, while the loser stays home at 5-7.

Conference USA saw some major restructuring as both divisional leaders lost.  Tulsa just tore Houston to shreds, while 1-8 Marshall clobbered East Carolina.  Memphis upset Southern Mississippi.  This means the league should have six bowl eligible teams for the six allotted slots.

How about Navy?  How can a team giving up 41.1 points per game be bowl eligible and assured of getting a bid?  Score 74 points, that’s how.

The Mid American Conference is going to have four seven-win teams.  Since they only have three bowl tie-ins, one team is going to be left out.  However, as you will see in the bowl projections below, that team is going to be fortunate and steal an at-large bid.

The same holds true for the Mountain West.  Five teams are headed to winning records, but there are only four bowl bids available.  Look below to find where TCU is headed as an at-large invitee.

The most generous conference is going to be the Pac-10.  I am picking this league to supply two BCS bowl participants, and thanks to this past weekend’s action, UCLA and Washington have seen the logical end to their bowl aspirations and Stanford has been eliminated.  Arizona and Washington State still have miniscule chances by winning out, and I don’t see that happening.  So, this league will leave two slots unfilled. 

The Southeastern Conference finds itself in the same boat as the Big 10.  Ten teams are already bowl eligible, and as of today the PiRates pick Vanderbilt to beat Wake Forest for win number six and become bowl eligible number 11.  If Tennessee wins out against Vandy and Kentucky, they will take the East Division crown.  That will give Georgia a chance to beat Kentucky and Ga. Tech and avoid LSU in the title game to finish 10-2 and earn an at-large BCS bowl bid.  Since the league gets eight regular bids, this will leave room for nine bowl bids.  South Carolina and Vanderbilt would be left out in the cold at 6-6.

Troy basically has the Sunbelt all wrapped up.  Florida Atlantic could still cop the crown by winning at Troy.

The WAC now throws a curve ball into the entire plan.  Up to this point, it was a near foregone conclusion that Hawaii would go 12-0 and finish ranked higher than one of the automatic BCS qualifiers and thus qualify for a BCS bowl.  Now, the PiRates believe that Boise State will win at Hawaii and end the Warriors BCS hopes.  Might Boise State finish higher than the ACC champ (say Clemson), or Michigan if the Wolverines beat Ohio State, or Tennessee if the Vols won the SEC Championship?  At 11-1, Hawaii might become an attractive team for the Las Vegas Bowl if the Pac-10 cannot supply a team.  That would leave the Hawaii Bowl open for an at-large team, thus sending the proposed at-large team from Vegas to Honolulu.

Here are this week’s projections.

Bowl Tie-in Tie-in

PiRate Pick

PiRate Pick

Poinsettia MWC #2 Navy/At-Large

Utah 9-3

Navy 8-4

New Orleans Sunbelt #1 CUSA #3-4-5

Troy 9-3

East Carolina 7-5

Papa Johns CUSA #3-4-5 Big East #4-5

Sou. Miss. 7-5

Rutgers 7-5

New Mexico W A C (no #) MWC #4

Nevada 7-5

New Mexico 8-4

Las Vegas MWC #1 Pac-10 #4-5

B Y U 9-3

Michigan St. 7-5 *

Hawaii W A C (no #) CUSA #3-4-5

Hawaii 11-1

Houston 8-4

Motor City Big 10 #7 MAC #1-2

Iowa 7-5

Bowling Green 7-5

Holiday Pac-10 #2 Big 12 #3

Southern Cal 9-3

Texas 10-2

Champs Sports ACC #4 Big 10 #5

Virginia 9-3

Michigan 8-4

Texas Big 12 #8 CUSA #6

T C U 7-5 *

Memphis 7-5

Emerald Pac-10 #4-5 ACC #7

Oregon St. 7-5

Wake Forest 7-5

Meineke Car Care ACC #6 Big East #3

Georgia Tech 7-5

Cincinnati 9-3

Liberty CUSA #1 SEC #6-7

Central Fla. 10-3

Kentucky 7-5

Alamo Big 10 #4 Big 12 #4-5

Penn St. 8-4

Texas A&M 6-6

Independence SEC #8 Big 12 #7

Miss. State 7-5

Colorado 6-6

Armed Forces MWC #3 Pac-10 #6

Air Force 9-3

Ball St. 7-5 *

Sun Big East #2 @ Pac-10 #3

Texas Tech 7-5

California 8-4

Humanitarian W A C (no #) ACC #8

Fresno St. 8-4

N.C. State 6-6

Music City ACC #5 SEC #6-7

Florida St. 7-5

Arkansas 7-5

Chick-Fil-A ACC #2 SEC #3-4-5

Boston Coll. 9-3

Alabama 7-5

Insight Big 12 #6 Big 10 #6

Oklahoma St. 6-6

Purdue 8-4

Outback Big 10 #3 SEC #3-4-5

Illinois 9-3

Florida 9-3

Cotton SEC #3-4-5 Big 12 #2

Auburn 8-4

Oklahoma 11-2

Gator Big 12 #4 @ ACC #3

S. Florida 9-3

Va. Tech 10-3

Capital One Big 10 #2 SEC #2

Wisconsin 9-3

Tennessee 9-4

Rose BCS BCS

Ohio St. 11-1

Arizona St. 11-1

Sugar BCS BCS

West Virginia 11-1

Boise St. 11-1

Fiesta BCS BCS

Missouri 12-1

Georgia 10-2

Orange BCS BCS

Clemson 11-2

Kansas 11-1

International MAC #3 Big East #4-5

Miami (O) 7-6

Connecticut 9-3

G M A C MAC #1-2 CUSA #2

Central Mich. 9-4

Tulsa 9-4

Nat’l Championship BCS #1 BCS #2

L S U 12-1

Oregon 11-1

* Fills a vacant slot because aligned conference cannot supply enough bowl eligible teams
Italics: Team has already been invited to this bowl @ The Big 12 and Big East slots are interchangeable in these bowls
Notre Dame will not be bowl eligible this year, so I have not included them in the tie-ins

Those Dreadful Tuesday-Wednesday Games

 

Tuesday: Toledo at Ball State

The PiRates predict Ball State to pick up their sixth win and take the Rockets by seven points with a predicted score of 38-31.  The Mean Rating calls for Ball State to win by 12 with a predicted score of 40-28.

Wednesday: Akron at Miami (O)

The PiRates predict Miami to wrap up the MAC East race with a 12-point win and with a predicted score of 35-23.  The Mean Rating calls for Miami to win by eight with a score of 28-20.

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