PiRate Ratings and Bowl Projections for November 12, 2007

 PiRate Top 25 For November 12, 2007

No.	Team	Won	Lost	PiRate
1	Oregon	8	1	126
2	L S U	9	1	125
3	West Virginia	8	1	124
4	Missouri	9	1	123
5	Southern Cal	9	2	123
6	Florida	7	3	123
7	Ohio State	10	1	122
8	Clemson	8	2	120
9	Kansas	10	0	119
10	Oklahoma	9	1	119
11	Arizona State	9	1	119
12	Georgia	8	2	118
13	Virginia Tech	8	2	117
14	Boise State	9	1	116
15	Cincinnati	8	2	116
16	Tennessee	7	3	116
17	Utah	7	3	116
18	Texas	9	2	114
19	Wisconsin	8	3	114
20	South Florida	7	3	114
21	Arkansas	6	4	114
22	California	6	4	113
23	Illinois	8	3	112
24	Oregon State	6	4	112
25	Penn State	8	3	111

                                   PiRates By Conference

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division	Conference			Overall
Team	Won	Lost		Won	Lost		Pts	Opp	Rating
Clemson	5	2		8	2		370	179	120
Boston College	4	2		8	2		308	203	110
Florida State	3	4		6	4		239	202	109
Wake Forest	4	3		6	4		269	244	107
Maryland	2	4		5	5		246	235	105
North Carolina St.	3	3		5	5		231	264	101
Coastal Division	Conference			Overall
Team	Won	Lost		Won	Lost		Pts	Opp	Rating
Virginia Tech	5	1		8	2		274	150	117
Virginia	6	1		9	2		268	191	110
Georgia Tech	3	4		6	4		269	175	106
Miami (FL)	2	4		5	5		219	240	100
North Carolina	2	4		3	7		209	253	98
Duke	0	7		1	9		194	350	86

Big East Conference
	Conference			Overall
Team	Won	Lost		Won	Lost		Pts	Opp	Rating
West Virginia	3	1		8	1		364	150	124
Cincinnati	3	2		8	2		366	164	116
South Florida	2	3		7	3		327	194	114
Louisville	2	3		5	5		364	284	111
Connecticut	4	1		8	2		283	150	110
Rutgers	2	3		6	4		316	205	110
Pittsburgh	2	2		4	5		208	214	95
Syracuse	1	4		2	8		159	336	86

Big 10 Conference
	Conference			Overall
Team	Won	Lost		Won	Lost		Pts	Opp	Rating
Ohio State	6	1		10	1		370	125	122
Wisconsin	4	3		8	3		325	246	114
Illinois	5	2		8	3		304	212	112
Penn State	4	3		8	3		334	176	111
Michigan St.	2	5		6	5		374	291	110
Michigan	6	1		8	3		310	229	109
Purdue	3	4		7	4		371	270	104
Iowa	4	4		6	5		203	197	98
Indiana	2	5		6	5		352	297	97
Northwestern	3	4		6	5		288	331	93
Minnesota	0	7		1	10		281	399	91

Big 12 Conference
North Division	Conference			Overall
Team	Won	Lost		Won	Lost		Pts	Opp	Rating
Missouri	5	1		9	1		420	221	123
Kansas	6	0		10	0		459	149	119
Kansas St.	3	4		5	5		361	276	103
Colorado	3	4		5	6		266	302	100
Iowa St.	2	5		3	8		211	336	98
Nebraska	2	5		5	6		350	390	96
South Division	Conference			Overall
Team	Won	Lost		Won	Lost		Pts	Opp	Rating
Oklahoma	5	1		9	1		450	168	119
Texas	5	2		9	2		402	257	114
Oklahoma St.	3	3		5	5		339	288	108
Texas Tech	3	4		7	4		467	282	106
Texas A&M	3	4		6	5		308	283	106
Baylor	0	7		3	8		204	396	85

Conference USA
East Division	Conference			Overall
Team	Won	Lost		Won	Lost		Pts	Opp	Rating
Central Fla.	5	1		7	3		370	297	103
East Carolina	5	2		6	5		327	345	95
Southern Miss.	4	3		5	5		258	243	94
Marshall	2	4		2	8		224	337	90
Memphis	4	2		5	5		273	314	89
U A B	1	5		2	8		187	350	76
West Division	Conference			Overall
Team	Won	Lost		Won	Lost		Pts	Opp	Rating
Tulsa	5	2		7	3		391	332	101
Houston	5	2		6	4		342	325	98
Rice	3	3		3	7		300	422	88
Tulane	2	4		3	7		236	319	86
U T E P	2	4		4	6		353	353	85
S M U	0	6		1	9		268	373	85

Independents
	Conference			Overall
Team	Won	Lost		Won	Lost		Pts	Opp	Rating
Navy	X	X		6	4		406	411	94
Notre Dame	X	X		1	9		148	324	90
Army	X	X		3	7		161	277	80
Western Ky.	X	X		6	4		320	211	78

Mid-American Conference
East Division	Division			Conference			Overall
Team	Won	Lost		Won	Lost		Won	Lost		Pts	Opp	Rating
Miami (OH)	3	1		4	1		5	5		204	260	92
Bowling Green	3	2		4	2		6	4		317	327	90
Buffalo	3	1		4	2		4	6		244	277	89
Ohio U	2	3		3	4		5	6		328	330	87
Kent St.	1	3		1	5		3	7		222	296	83
Temple	2	3		3	3		3	7		170	285	83
Akron	2	3		3	3		4	6		222	308	83
West Division	Division			Conference			Overall
Team	Won	Lost		Won	Lost		Won	Lost		Pts	Opp	Rating
Central Mich.	4	0		5	0		6	4		324	376	97
Ball St.	2	1		3	2		5	5		311	275	94
Western Mich.	2	3		2	4		3	7		279	325	94
Toledo	2	2		3	3		5	5		365	392	90
Eastern Mich.	2	3		2	4		3	8		242	329	83
Northern Illinois	0	4		1	5		2	8		184	308	77

Mountain West Conference
	Conference			Overall
Team	Won	Lost		Won	Lost		Pts	Opp	Rating
Utah	4	2		7	3		268	160	116
Brigham Young	5	0		7	2		274	178	108
T C U	2	4		5	5		240	187	108
Air Force	5	2		8	3		298	209	103
New Mexico	4	2		7	3		261	213	96
San Diego St.	3	2		4	5		218	265	93
Colorado St.	1	6		1	9		226	307	93
Wyoming	2	4		5	5		195	240	89
U N L V	1	5		2	8		202	282	86

Pacific 10 Conference
Team	Won	Lost		Won	Lost		Pts	Opp	Rating
Oregon	5	1		8	1		385	198	126
Southern Cal	5	2		8	2		307	160	123
Arizona St.	6	1		9	1		342	180	119
California	3	4		6	4		302	256	113
Oregon St.	4	3		6	4		251	232	112
U C L A	4	3		5	5		253	248	109
Arizona	3	4		4	6		285	278	108
Washington	1	6		3	7		280	313	107
Washington St.	2	5		4	6		249	302	106
Stanford	2	6		3	7		201	305	95

Southeastern Conference
East Division	Conference			Overall
Team	Won	Lost		Won	Lost		Pts	Opp	Rating
Florida	5	3		7	3		413	258	123
Georgia	5	2		8	2		328	222	118
Tennessee	4	2		7	3		343	270	116
Kentucky	3	3		7	3		377	281	110
South Carolina	3	5		6	5		292	259	108
Vanderbilt	2	5		5	5		219	215	104
West Division	Conference			Overall
Team	Won	Lost		Won	Lost		Pts	Opp	Rating
L S U	5	1		9	1		393	167	125
Arkansas	2	4		6	4		383	228	114
Auburn	4	3		7	4		275	190	111
Alabama	4	3		6	4		298	224	110
Mississippi St.	3	3		6	4		221	239	107
Ole Miss	0	6		3	7		203	284	94

Sunbelt Conference
	Conference			Overall
Team	Won	Lost		Won	Lost		Pts	Opp	Rating
Troy	5	0		7	3		331	250	101
M T S U	4	2		5	6		301	294	90
La.-Monroe	3	3		4	6		244	307	88
Fla. Atlantic	4	1		5	4		248	291	87
Arkansas St.	2	4		4	6		250	288	84
La.-Lafayette	2	3		2	8		236	385	83
North Texas	1	4		1	8		225	446	76
Fla. Int’l	0	4		0	9		92	357	71

Western Athletic Conference
Team	Won	Lost		Won	Lost		Pts	Opp	Rating
Boise St.	6	0		9	1		428	187	116
Hawaii	6	0		9	0		452	209	108
Fresno St.	5	2		6	4		312	271	99
Nevada	3	2		5	4		336	330	96
San Jose St.	3	3		4	6		195	301	91
La. Tech	3	3		4	6		212	296	88
Utah St.	0	6		0	10		188	370	81
New Mexico St.	1	5		4	7		272	406	80
Idaho	0	6		1	9		225	361	80

This Week’s Bowl Probabilities

 

Raise you hands if you predicted all of the newest round of upsets and surprise finishes this past weekend.  If your hand is up, you need to re-read the Ninth Commandment.

Where do we start?  Let’s go alphabetically by conference.  In the ACC, Virginia probably ended Miami’s bowl expectations.  Maryland upsetting Boston College just prolonged the Terps’ fate an extra week.  With road games at Florida St. and North Carolina St., UM is still looking at 5-7.  The Wolfpack’s win over North Carolina made it four straight wins, and they look like a virtual lock to rally from a 1-5 start to a bowl game.

In the Big East, Cincinnati has set up an interesting home game with West Virginia this week.  If the Bearcats can pull off the upset, they are headed to a BCS Bowl game.  Louisville’s loss to the Mountaineers means the Cardinals will have to win at South Florida and at home against Rutgers or it’s bye-bye bowl.

The Big 10 has 10 bowl eligible teams and seven bowl slots.  Ohio State’s loss means no National Championship Game (why does their 7-point loss to 7-3 Illinois hurt more than LSU’s 8-point loss to 7-3 Kentucky?).  One Big 10 team will finish with a 7-5 record and be forced to look for an at-large spot. 

The Big 12 is almost assured of getting a second BCS Bowl Bid, and because of that, this conference should leave one slot unfilled.  Kansas State has collapsed and is headed to 5-7.  The Colorado-Nebraska winner will get a bowl bid, while the loser stays home at 5-7.

Conference USA saw some major restructuring as both divisional leaders lost.  Tulsa just tore Houston to shreds, while 1-8 Marshall clobbered East Carolina.  Memphis upset Southern Mississippi.  This means the league should have six bowl eligible teams for the six allotted slots.

How about Navy?  How can a team giving up 41.1 points per game be bowl eligible and assured of getting a bid?  Score 74 points, that’s how.

The Mid American Conference is going to have four seven-win teams.  Since they only have three bowl tie-ins, one team is going to be left out.  However, as you will see in the bowl projections below, that team is going to be fortunate and steal an at-large bid.

The same holds true for the Mountain West.  Five teams are headed to winning records, but there are only four bowl bids available.  Look below to find where TCU is headed as an at-large invitee.

The most generous conference is going to be the Pac-10.  I am picking this league to supply two BCS bowl participants, and thanks to this past weekend’s action, UCLA and Washington have seen the logical end to their bowl aspirations and Stanford has been eliminated.  Arizona and Washington State still have miniscule chances by winning out, and I don’t see that happening.  So, this league will leave two slots unfilled. 

The Southeastern Conference finds itself in the same boat as the Big 10.  Ten teams are already bowl eligible, and as of today the PiRates pick Vanderbilt to beat Wake Forest for win number six and become bowl eligible number 11.  If Tennessee wins out against Vandy and Kentucky, they will take the East Division crown.  That will give Georgia a chance to beat Kentucky and Ga. Tech and avoid LSU in the title game to finish 10-2 and earn an at-large BCS bowl bid.  Since the league gets eight regular bids, this will leave room for nine bowl bids.  South Carolina and Vanderbilt would be left out in the cold at 6-6.

Troy basically has the Sunbelt all wrapped up.  Florida Atlantic could still cop the crown by winning at Troy.

The WAC now throws a curve ball into the entire plan.  Up to this point, it was a near foregone conclusion that Hawaii would go 12-0 and finish ranked higher than one of the automatic BCS qualifiers and thus qualify for a BCS bowl.  Now, the PiRates believe that Boise State will win at Hawaii and end the Warriors BCS hopes.  Might Boise State finish higher than the ACC champ (say Clemson), or Michigan if the Wolverines beat Ohio State, or Tennessee if the Vols won the SEC Championship?  At 11-1, Hawaii might become an attractive team for the Las Vegas Bowl if the Pac-10 cannot supply a team.  That would leave the Hawaii Bowl open for an at-large team, thus sending the proposed at-large team from Vegas to Honolulu.

Here are this week’s projections.

Bowl	Tie-in	Tie-in	PiRate Pick	PiRate Pick
Poinsettia	MWC #2	Navy/At-Large	Utah 9-3	Navy 8-4
New Orleans	Sunbelt #1	CUSA #3-4-5	Troy 9-3	East Carolina 7-5
Papa Johns	CUSA #3-4-5	Big East #4-5	Sou. Miss. 7-5	Rutgers 7-5
New Mexico	W A C (no #)	MWC #4	Nevada 7-5	New Mexico 8-4
Las Vegas	MWC #1	Pac-10 #4-5	B Y U 9-3	Michigan St. 7-5 *
Hawaii	W A C (no #)	CUSA #3-4-5	Hawaii 11-1	Houston 8-4
Motor City	Big 10 #7	MAC #1-2	Iowa 7-5	Bowling Green 7-5
Holiday	Pac-10 #2	Big 12 #3	Southern Cal 9-3	Texas 10-2
Champs Sports	ACC #4	Big 10 #5	Virginia 9-3	Michigan 8-4
Texas	Big 12 #8	CUSA #6	T C U 7-5 *	Memphis 7-5
Emerald	Pac-10 #4-5	ACC #7	Oregon St. 7-5	Wake Forest 7-5
Meineke Car Care	ACC #6	Big East #3	Georgia Tech 7-5	Cincinnati 9-3
Liberty	CUSA #1	SEC #6-7	Central Fla. 10-3	Kentucky 7-5
Alamo	Big 10 #4	Big 12 #4-5	Penn St. 8-4	Texas A&M 6-6
Independence	SEC #8	Big 12 #7	Miss. State 7-5	Colorado 6-6
Armed Forces	MWC #3	Pac-10 #6	Air Force 9-3	Ball St. 7-5 *
Sun	Big East #2 @	Pac-10 #3	Texas Tech 7-5	California 8-4
Humanitarian	W A C (no #)	ACC #8	Fresno St. 8-4	N.C. State 6-6
Music City	ACC #5	SEC #6-7	Florida St. 7-5	Arkansas 7-5
Chick-Fil-A	ACC #2	SEC #3-4-5	Boston Coll. 9-3	Alabama 7-5
Insight	Big 12 #6	Big 10 #6	Oklahoma St. 6-6	Purdue 8-4
Outback	Big 10 #3	SEC #3-4-5	Illinois 9-3	Florida 9-3
Cotton	SEC #3-4-5	Big 12 #2	Auburn 8-4	Oklahoma 11-2
Gator	Big 12 #4 @	ACC #3	S. Florida 9-3	Va. Tech 10-3
Capital One	Big 10 #2	SEC #2	Wisconsin 9-3	Tennessee 9-4
Rose	BCS	BCS	Ohio St. 11-1	Arizona St. 11-1
Sugar	BCS	BCS	West Virginia 11-1	Boise St. 11-1
Fiesta	BCS	BCS	Missouri 12-1	Georgia 10-2
Orange	BCS	BCS	Clemson 11-2	Kansas 11-1
International	MAC #3	Big East #4-5	Miami (O) 7-6	Connecticut 9-3
G M A C	MAC #1-2	CUSA #2	Central Mich. 9-4	Tulsa 9-4
Nat’l Championship	BCS #1	BCS #2	L S U 12-1	Oregon 11-1
* Fills a vacant slot because aligned conference cannot supply enough bowl eligible teams
Italics: Team has already been invited to this bowl @ The Big 12 and Big East slots are interchangeable in these bowls
Notre Dame will not be bowl eligible this year, so I have not included them in the tie-ins

Those Dreadful Tuesday-Wednesday Games

 

Tuesday: Toledo at Ball State

The PiRates predict Ball State to pick up their sixth win and take the Rockets by seven points with a predicted score of 38-31.  The Mean Rating calls for Ball State to win by 12 with a predicted score of 40-28.

Wednesday: Akron at Miami (O)

The PiRates predict Miami to wrap up the MAC East race with a 12-point win and with a predicted score of 35-23.  The Mean Rating calls for Miami to win by eight with a score of 28-20.