The Pi-Rate Ratings

November 5, 2007

PiRate Ratings and Bowl Probabilities for November 5, 2007

 Top 25 For The Week of November 5, 2007

No.

Team

Won

Lost

PiRate

1

Oregon 

8

1

126

2

Ohio State

10

0

126

3

West Virginia

7

1

126

4

Missouri

8

1

125

5

L S U

8

1

123

6

Southern Cal

8

2

123

7

Oklahoma

8

1

121

8

Arizona State

8

1

120

9

Florida

6

3

120

10

Arkansas

6

3

117

11

Kansas

9

0

116

12

Virginia Tech

7

2

116

13

Clemson

7

2

116

14

Georgia

7

2

114

15

Auburn

7

3

114

16

Connecticut

8

1

113

17

Boston College

8

1

113

18

California

6

3

113

19

Cincinnati

7

2

113

20

Texas

8

2

113

21

Boise State

8

1

112

22

Michigan

8

2

112

23

Alabama

6

3

112

24

Oregon State

5

4

112

25

Tennessee

6

3

112

                                PiRate Ratings by Conference

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

Conference

 

Overall

 

 

Team

Won

Lost

 

Won

Lost

Pts

Opp

Rating

Clemson

4

2

 

7

2

326

169

116

Boston College

4

1

 

8

1

273

161

113

Florida State

3

3

 

6

3

218

162

110

Wake Forest

4

2

 

6

3

259

200

110

Maryland

1

4

 

4

5

204

200

102

North Carolina St.

2

3

 

4

5

200

237

101

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Coastal Division

Conference

 

Overall

 

 

 

Team

Won

Lost

 

Won

Lost

Pts

Opp

Rating

Virginia Tech

4

1

 

7

2

234

129

116

Georgia Tech

2

4

 

5

4

228

151

106

Miami (FL)

2

3

 

5

4

219

192

106

Virginia 

5

1

 

8

2

220

191

105

North Carolina

2

3

 

3

6

182

222

98

Duke

0

6

 

1

8

170

309

87

Big East Conference

Conference

 

Overall

Team

Won

Lost

 

Won Lost

Pts

Opp

Rating

West Virginia

2

1

 

7

1

326

119

126

Connecticut

4

0

 

8

1

280

123

113

Cincinnati

2

2

 

7

2

339

161

113

South Florida

1

3

 

6

3

286

184

111

Louisville

2

2

 

5

4

333

246

109

Rutgers

2

3

 

5

4

275

199

107

Pittsburgh

2

2

 

4

5

208

214

95

Syracuse

1

3

 

2

7

149

295

89

Big 10 Conference

Conference

 

Overall

Team

Won

Lost

 

Won

Lost

Pts

Opp

Rating

Ohio State

6

0

 

10

0

349

97

126

Michigan

6

0

 

8

2

289

192

112

Wisconsin

3

3

 

7

3

288

225

111

Penn State

4

3

 

7

3

303

176

110

Illinois

4

2

 

7

3

276

191

107

Purdue

3

3

 

7

3

340

222

107

Michigan St.

1

5

 

5

5

326

260

106

Iowa

3

4

 

5

5

182

181

100

Indiana

2

4

 

6

4

324

266

99

Northwestern

2

4

 

5

5

257

303

91

Minnesota

0

6

 

1

9

265

378

89

Big 12 Conference

North Division

Conference

Overall

 

Team

Won

Lost

Won

Lost

Pts

Opp

Rating

Missouri

4

1

8

1

380

195

125

Kansas 

5

0

9

0

416

121

116

Kansas St.

3

3

5

4

330

203

109

Colorado

3

3

5

5

238

271

102

Iowa St.

1

5

2

8

180

308

96

Nebraska

1

5

4

6

277

359

92

 

 

 

 

 

South Division

Conference

Overall

 

Team

Won

Lost

Won

Lost

Pts

Opp

Rating

Oklahoma

4

1

8

1

398

147

121

Texas

4

2

8

2

343

214

113

Oklahoma St.

3

2

5

4

311

245

110

Texas Tech

3

3

7

3

424

223

108

Texas A&M

3

3

6

4

282

243

104

Baylor

0

6

3

7

183

344

83

Conference USA

East Division

Conference

Overall

 

Team

Won

Lost

Won

Lost

Pts

Opp

Rating

Central Fla.

4

1

6

3

325

266

105

East Carolina

5

1

6

4

320

319

100

Southern Miss.

4

2

5

4

232

214

97

Marshall

1

4

1

8

198

330

86

Memphis

3

2

4

5

244

288

85

U A B

1

4

2

7

156

305

74

 

 

 

West Division

Conference

Overall

 

Team

Won

Lost

Won

Lost

Pts

Opp

Rating

Houston

5

1

6

3

335

269

103

Tulsa

4

2

6

3

335

325

96

U T E P

2

3

4

5

334

319

88

Rice

2

3

2

7

257

380

86

S M U

0

5

1

8

226

330

86

Tulane

1

4

2

7

202

300

83

Independents

Conference

Overall

 

Team

Won

Lost

Won

Lost

Pts

Opp

Rating

Navy

X

X

5

4

332

349

95

Notre Dame

X

X

1

8

124

283

92

Army

X

X

3

6

155

236

85

Western Ky.

X

X

6

3

303

190

73

Mid-American Conference

East Division

Division

Conference

Overall

 

Team

Won

Lost

 

Won

Lost

Won

Lost

Pts

Opp

Rating

Miami (OH)

3

1

 

4

1

5

5

204

260

92

Bowling Green

3

2

 

3

2

5

4

278

295

90

Ohio U

2

2

 

3

3

5

5

291

282

89

Buffalo

3

1

 

4

2

4

6

244

277

89

Kent St.

1

3

 

1

4

3

6

202

269

86

Temple

2

3

 

3

3

3

6

170

254

84

Akron

1

3

 

2

3

3

6

174

271

80

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

West Division

Division

 

Conference

Overall

 

 

 

Team

Won

Lost

 

Won

Lost

Won

Lost

Pts

Opp

Rating

Central Mich.

3

0

 

4

0

5

4

290

345

97

Ball St.

2

1

 

3

2

5

5

311

275

94

Western Mich.

2

2

 

2

3

3

6

248

291

94

Toledo

2

2

 

3

3

5

5

365

392

90

Eastern Mich.

2

2

 

2

3

3

7

210

290

83

Northern Illinois

0

4

 

0

5

1

8

157

288

74

Mountain West Conference

Conference

Overall

 

Team

Won

Lost

Won

Lost

Pts

Opp

Rating

Utah

3

2

6

3

218

160

110

Brigham Young

4

0

6

2

247

156

108

T C U

2

3

5

4

218

160

108

Air Force

5

2

7

3

257

185

101

New Mexico

3

2

6

3

235

190

98

Wyoming

2

3

5

4

195

190

95

San Diego St.

2

2

3

5

180

235

92

Colorado St.

1

5

1

8

203

281

91

U N L V

1

4

2

7

172

244

87

Pacific 10 Conference

 

 

 

Team

Won

Lost

Won

Lost

Pts

Opp

Rating

Oregon 

5

1

8

1

385

198

126

Southern Cal

4

2

7

2

283

143

123

Arizona St.

5

1

8

1

318

160

120

California

3

3

6

3

285

232

113

Oregon St.

3

3

5

4

222

209

112

U C L A

4

2

5

4

233

224

108

Arizona

3

4

4

6

285

278

108

Washington 

1

5

3

6

257

282

107

Washington St.

1

5

3

6

216

285

104

Stanford

2

5

3

6

184

272

97

Southeastern Conference

East Division

Conference

 

Overall

Team

Won

Lost

 

Won

Lost

Pts

Opp

Rating

Florida

4

3

 

6

3

 

362

227

120

Georgia

4

2

 

7

2

 

283

202

114

Tennessee

3

2

 

6

3

 

309

257

112

South Carolina

3

4

 

6

4

 

261

208

111

Kentucky

2

3

 

6

3

 

350

261

110

Vanderbilt

2

4

 

5

4

 

199

188

104

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

West Division

Conference

 

Overall

 

 

 

 

Team

Won

Lost

 

Won

Lost

 

Pts

Opp

Rating

L S U

5

1

 

8

1

 

335

157

123

Arkansas

2

3

 

6

3

 

370

194

117

Auburn

4

2

 

7

3

 

255

145

114

Alabama

4

2

 

6

3

 

286

207

112

Mississippi St.

2

3

 

5

4

 

204

227

105

Ole Miss

0

6

 

3

7

 

203

284

94

Sunbelt Conference

Conference

 

Overall

Team

Won

Lost

 

Won

Lost

Pts

Opp

Rating

Troy

5

0

 

6

3

310

233

105

M T S U

4

1

 

5

5

277

260

95

Fla. Atlantic

3

1

 

4

4

214

260

88

La.-Monroe

3

3

 

3

6

216

293

87

Arkansas St.

2

3

 

4

5

219

254

83

La.-Lafayette

1

3

 

1

8

202

361

78

North Texas

1

4

 

1

7

163

372

75

Fla. Int’l

0

4

 

0

9

92

357

71

Western Athletic Conference

 

 

 

Team

Won

Lost

 

Won

Lost

Pts

Opp

Rating

Boise St.

5

0

 

8

1

376

187

112

Hawaii

5

0

 

8

0

415

179

109

Fresno St.

5

1

 

6

3

282

234

98

Nevada

3

2

 

5

4

336

330

96

La. Tech

3

3

 

4

5

202

238

90

San Jose St.

2

3

 

3

6

144

284

86

New Mexico St.

1

4

 

4

6

255

355

85

Utah St.

0

5

 

0

9

188

318

85

Idaho

0

6

 

1

9

225

361

80

The PiRate Bowl Probabilities

 

This week sees a major restructuring in the bowl probabilities.  Let’s start with the Big 10, since most of you reading this live in Big 10 Country.  Indiana and Iowa improved enough in the ratings to predict both to go 7-5.  Michigan State is looking at 6-6 and will not get an invitation.  Northwestern played themselves out of bowl eligibility with a loss to Iowa and two tough games to play.

In the Southeastern Conference, it’s looking more and more like there will not be a second BCS Bowl team.  LSU is predicted to win out, and Georgia is selected as its opponent in the SEC Championship game.  After LSU, the next best record in the SEC will be Georgia’s 10-3 mark, and it should drop them below some other teams in the chase.  The big news here is that South Carolina should now finish 6-6, and they will be left out of the bowl picture.  Mississippi State should join USC at 6-6 with no bowl.  Vanderbilt dropped out of the list of 6-6 teams by dropping enough points to be an underdog in all three remaining games.

In the ACC, North Carolina State emerges as the number eight team, while Maryland drops out.  In the Pac-10, say aloha to UCLA (and Karl Dorrell) and Stanford, and say hello to two vacant slots that will go to 7-5 teams.  Indiana and TCU will more than likely be the lucky two at-large teams, while Ball State should be the only 7-5 team not getting an invitation.  Speaking of the MAC, Buffalo played itself out of bowl contention with their loss to Miami-O, and Miami-O is looking at a probable 6-6 season.  Ohio U is now forecasted to win the East Division and head to Canada to get drilled.

The list of 6-6 teams has swelled.  The 6-6’s that aren’t predicted to receive bids are: Michigan State, South Carolina, Mississippi State, Louisville, Miami-O, Wyoming, Middle Tennessee, and Florida Atlantic.

Here is the list for this week

Bowl Tie-in Tie-in PiRate Pick PiRate Pick
Poinsettia MWC #2 Navy/At-Large Utah 8-4 Navy 8-4
New Orleans Sunbelt #1 CUSA #3-4-5 Troy 9-3 Memphis 6-6
Papa Johns CUSA #3-4-5 Big East #4-5 Southern Miss. 8-4 Rutgers 7-5
New Mexico W A C (no #) MWC #4 Nevada 7-5 New Mexico 8-4
Las Vegas MWC #1 Pac-10 #4-5 B Y U 10-2 Oregon State 7-5
Hawaii W A C (no #) CUSA #3-4-5 Fresno St. 7-5 Tulsa 8-4
Motor City Big 10 #7 MAC #1-2 Iowa 7-5 Ball St. 7-5
Holiday Pac-10 #2 Big 12 #3 Southern Cal 9-3 Texas 10-2
Champs Sports ACC #4 Big 10 #5 Wake Forest 8-4 Penn State 8-4
Texas Big 12 #8 CUSA #6 Texas A&M 6-6 East Carolina 8-5
Emerald Pac-10 #4-5 ACC #7 T C U 7-5 * Miami-F 6-6
Meineke Car Care ACC #6 Big East #3 Florida St. 7-5 Cincinnati 9-3
Liberty CUSA #1 SEC #6-7 Houston 10-3 Kentucky 8-4
Alamo Big 10 #4 Big 12 #4-5 Purdue 9-3 Colorado 7-5
Independence SEC #8 Big 12 #7 Oklahoma St. 6-6 Tennessee 7-5
Armed Forces MWC #3 Pac-10 #6 Air Force 9-3 Indiana 7-5 *
Sun Big East #2 @ Pac-10 #3 Texas Tech 7-5 California 8-4
Humanitarian W A C (no #) ACC #8 Boise State 10-2 N.Carolina St. 6-6
Music City ACC #5 SEC #6-7 Georgia Tech 7-5 Arkansas 8-4
Chick-Fil-A ACC #2 SEC #3-4-5 Virginia Tech 10-3 Auburn 8-4
Insight Big 12 #6 Big 10 #6 Kansas St. 7-5 Illinois 8-4
Outback Big 10 #3 SEC #3-4-5 Wisconsin 9-3 Florida 9-3
Cotton SEC #3-4-5 Big 12 #2 Alabama 8-4 Oklahoma 11-2
Gator Big 12 #4 @ ACC #3 S. Florida 9-3 Virginia 8-4
Capital One Big 10 #2 SEC #2 Michigan 8-4 Georgia 10-3
Rose BCS BCS Oregon 11-1 Kansas 11-1
Sugar BCS BCS West Va. 11-1 Boston Coll. 10-2
Fiesta BCS BCS Missouri 12-1 Arizona State 11-1
Orange BCS BCS Clemson 11-2 Hawaii 12-0
International MAC #3 Big East #4-5 Ohio U 7-6 Connecticut 9-3
G M A C MAC #1-2 CUSA #2 Bowling Green 7-5 Central Fla. 9-3
Nat’l Championship BCS #1 BCS #2 Ohio State 12-0 L S U 12-1
* Fills a vacant slot because aligned conference cannot supply enough bowl eligible teams
@ These slots are interchangeable
Notre Dame will not be bowl eligible this year, so I have not included them in the tie-ins

PiRate Picks For Tuesday & Wednesday

 

I don’t like these Tuesday and Wednesday games, because they throw my schedule completely out of whack.  I have no actual selections on these two games, but here are how the PiRates and Mean ratings pick them.

1. Central Michigan @ Western Michigan: The PiRates call this a tossup with a predicted score of 27-27 heading to overtime.  The Mean Rating favors CMU by three with a predicted score of 34-31.

2. Ohio U @ Akron: The PiRates favor Ohio U by 6 with the predicted score of 27-21.  The Mean Rating favors Ohio U. by 3 with an expected score of 29-26.

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2 Comments

  1. I finally got around to reading your blog. What’s happened to your great percentages? You used to be the top handicapper I knew, and now you are under .500.

    Comment by Wes Kahnert — November 5, 2007 @ 2:43 pm

  2. Where have you been hiding Wes. I take it you no longer work at Vanderbilt.

    If you read my postings from a few weeks ago, I explained the anomalies with this season. You have to go back to 1981 to find a college football season as unpredictable as this one. I started strong in September, but things began to make a turn for the worse in October.

    It’s not much of an excuse, but all the big name handicappers are suffering the same malady that I am. Without naming names, one very popular service in this area is hitting just over 40%. I am under 50% right now myself, but at least I’m better than that.

    Your Sooners are still in the hunt for the Big Game, but they are going to probably have to beat Missouri again, or a 12-0 Kansas team. You better cheer hard for Arkansas to knock off LSU or Michigan to beat Ohio State, or it may not matter.

    Comment by piratings — November 6, 2007 @ 6:35 am


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