In this week’s preview, we will focus on the low-major conferences.  In most years, these leagues would have no shot at sending multiple teams to the Big Dance.  However, that is not an impossible task this year.

Before we get to each of the 16 low-major conferences, let’s take a look at which low and mid-major teams appear in the top 50 in the RPI rankings (as of Friday, January 27, 2012).

There are 14 teams on the list.  Creighton, Southern Mississippi, and Gonzaga all appear in the second ten, and these teams would appear to be safe at-large teams if they do not win automatic bids.

San Diego State, Wichita State, Murray State, and St. Mary’s all have RPIs in the 20’s.  If these four teams continue to play at the same pace, they should have no trouble getting at-large bids as well.

Long Beach State, Oral Roberts, Davidson, Middle Tennessee, Harvard, Northern Iowa, and Iona have RPIs in the 40’s.  They need to improve on their resumes in order to be under consideration for at-large bids.

Here is our look at the bottom 16 conferences.

America East (definite 1-bid conference)

Stony Brook 8-1  13-7

Boston U. 7-2  11-12

Vermont 6-2  12-10

Stony Brook defeated Boston last night to take a one game lead over the Terriers.  BU had defeated Stony Brook two weeks earlier in the first contest.

Stony Brook is led by blue-collar worker Tommy Brenton.  He does all the dirty work—gets rebounds, makes great passes, and plays excellent defense.

Boston U has a big scorer in Darryl Partin, who averages 20 points per game.  D. J. Irving sets him up with crisp passes.  Irving scores 12 points per game and dishes out 5.5 assists per contest.

Atlantic Sun (definite 1-bid conference)

Belmont 7-2  14-7

Mercer 7-2  15-7

USC Upstate 7-3  13-9

Belmont defeated Mercer earlier this year, so the Bruins technically are in first place.  This Belmont team is not as good as last year’s 30-win squad, but they cannot be overlooked.  Belmont lost by one at Duke.

Seven teams are within two games of first in this league, so the conference tournament should be quite interesting. 

Big Sky (definite 1-bid conference)

Weber State 8-0  16-3

Montana 7-1  14-6

Montana St. 6-2  11-8

Weber State wins games at the free throw line.  The Wildcats lead the nation in free throw percentage at better than 80%, and they have a chance to break the all-time single season mark.  Two Wildcats, Damian Lillard and Scott Bamforth, average better than 90% from the line.  Lillard leads the Big Sky in scoring at 25 points per game.

The Wildcats have won 10 games in a row, outscoring opponents by an average of 80.1 to 62.5.

Big South (definite 1-bid conference)

UNC-Asheville 10-1  15-7

Coastal Carolina 8-2  15-5

Campbell 8-3  14-9

Charleston Southern 7-3  13-7

V M I 6-5  11-10

UNCA is a scoring machine.  The Bulldogs average 83 points per game and shoot close to 50% per game.  They have a great two-man tandem in Matt Dickey and J. P. Primm.  Both average 16 points per game and make it tough for opposing backcourts to matchup.

Coastal Carolina has a better inside game and could be the better NCAA Tournament team if they can get there.  CCU owns wins over LSU and Clemson.

Big West (possible 2-bid conference)

Long Beach St. 8-0  15-6

The 49ers have a 2 ½-game lead over Cal State Fullerton and UCSB.  LBSU defeated Pitt and Xavier and lost close games to San Diego State, Louisville, North Carolina, and Kansas.  The 49ers have three star players capable of starting in big conferences.  T. J. Robinson averages a double-double.  Casper Ware and Larry Anderson make the league’s best guard tandem.  Should LBSU win the regular season title with no or just one conference loss, the 49ers could still get into the Big Dance if they lost in the finals of the Big West Tournament.

Ivy League (possible 2-bid conference)

Harvard 3-0  17-2

Penn 2-0  10-9

Yale 2-1  12-5

Princeton 1-1  10-8

Harvard trounced Yale last night in New Haven by 30 points.  The Crimson have an RPI rating in the 40’s, and they might have a shot at an at-large bid if they finished tied for first in the Ivy at 13-1 and lost in a conference playoff. 

Penn and Princeton are always threats to run off a string of conference victories, but we believe that this is Tommy Amaker’s year in Boston.  Harvard has a win over Florida State.

M A A C (possible 2-bid conference)

Iona 8-2  16-5

Loyola (MD) 8-2  15-5

Manhattan 8-2  15-7

All three co-leaders won last night.  Iona has the best resume to date, and with an RPI in the high 40’s, the Gaels are on the cusp of at-large status.  They lead the nation in assists per game with 20, and they shoot almost 50% from the field.  They own a 26-point win over Maryland, and they lost by one to Purdue.

M E A C (definite 1-bid conference)

Norfolk State  7-0  15-6

Bethune-Cookman 6-1  9-12

Savannah St. 5-2  10-10

Norfolk State may be the best MEAC team in the last five years.  They lost by just two points to Marquette earlier this year, and at 15-6, they have a good shot at winning 20 regular season games.  The Spartans must play at Bethune-Cookman in the only meeting of the top two teams.

Kyle O’Quinn averages 16 points and 10 rebounds per game, and he shoots 59% from the field.  O’Quinn stands a great chance of winning league MVP honors.

N E C (definite 1-bid conference)

Long Island 8-1  14-7

Wagner 7-2  16-4

Robert Morris 7-2  16-6

St. Francis NY 7-2  10-10

Long Island is not as good this year as last, but the Blackbirds are still the class of the league.  LIU swept Wagner already, so the Blackbirds would have to lose twice for Wagner to have any chance to win the regular season title.

LIU still has three top notch stars.  Julian Boyd and Jamal Olasewere team for 33 points and 17 boards per game, while Jason Brickman averages six assists per game.

Wagner defeated Pittsburgh, Penn, and Princeton this year, so the Seahawks might be a better matchup for a major conference opponent in the NCAA Tournament.

Ohio Valley (possible 2-bid league)

Murray State 8-0  20-0

The Racers have moved up to number nine in the nation, the first OVC team to crack the Top 10 since Western Kentucky was a member in the early 1970’s.  The last undefeated team in the nation has a small chance of running the table in the regular season.

The Racers are winning games with excellent outside shooting, where they average 42% from behind the arc.  Isaiah Canaan is the best of those outside shooters, hitting 47% three pointers and 18.7 points per game.

Patriot League (definite 1-bid league)

Bucknell 6-0  16-6

Lehigh 4-2  16-6

Bucknell may not be strong enough to pull off an epic upset in the first round of the Big Dance, but the Bison will be a tough out in the first round.  They lost by 12 to both Minnesota and Vanderbilt and lost by 19 to Syracuse.  The Bison have won eight games in a row.

Southern (possible 2-bid league)

North

Elon 5-3  10-9

UNC-Greensboro 5-4  7-14

South

Davidson 9-0  15-4

Davidson could possibly earn an at-large bid if the Wildcats failed to earn an automatic bid.  The Wildcats won at Kansas.

Southland (definite 1-bid league)

East

Northwestern State 4-2  11-9

McNeese State 4-2  8-10

West

UT-Arlington 6-0  14-5

UT-San Antonio 5-1  13-7

UT-Arlington has won 10 games in a row after beginning the season at 4-5.  They lost to Baylor by 10 points.  UTA has excellent depth for a low-major team.

S W A C (definite 1-bid league)

Mississippi Valley State 7-0  8-11

Southern 6-2  10-11

Texas Southern 5-2  6-13

No team in this league has a winning record, so it is a strong chance the winner of the SWAC Tournament will be making a quick trip to Dayton for the play-in round.

Mississippi Valley has won seven games in a row after beginning the season 1-11.  Among the teams that beat them are Notre Dame, North Carolina, Florida, Wisconsin, Arkansas, and Ole Miss.

Summit League (possible 2-bid league)

Oral Roberts 11-0  19-4

South Dakota State 8-2  16-6

Oral Roberts has reeled off 12 straight victories and moved up to the mid 40’s in the RPI rating.  ORU owns a 22-point win over Xavier.  Two of their four losses came at the hands of Gonzaga by six and West Virginia by seven.

Sunbelt (possible 2-bid league)

East

Middle Tennessee 9-0  20-2

West

Denver 6-2  16-5

This could be Middle Tennessee’s best ever team.  The Blue Raiders have made waves in the NCAA Tournament in the past, knocking off Kentucky in 1982.

This Middle Tennessee team won by 20 points at UCLA, and if they can knock off Vanderbilt today, the Blue Raiders could move into the Top 25.  They have excellent depth and can go 10 or 11 deep.  Laron Dendy is the leader of the team.

Conference Championship Previews

This Week’s PiRate, Mean, and Biased Spreads

Computer Simulations

Sunday, January 22, 2012

3PM EST

Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots

100 Simulations: New England 63  Baltimore 37

Avg. Sim Score: New England 26.5  Baltimore 19.7  (46.2 total points)

Vs. Spread: New England 48  Baltimore 47  Push 5

Outlier Score A: New England 38  Baltimore 13

Outlier Score B: Baltimore 24  New England 12

6:30 PM EST

New York Giants @ San Francisco 49ers

100 Simulations: New York Giants 53  San Francisco 47

Avg. Sim Score: New York Giants 23.6  San Francisco 20.9 (44.5 points)

Vs. Spread: New York Giants 82  San Francisco 18

Outlier Score A: New York Giants 37  San Francisco 14

Outlier Score B: San Francisco 27  New York Giants 9

 Note: The PiRate Ratings will begin its NCAA Basketball coverage next week.

Current NFL Standings For Remaining Playoff Teams

Team                                 PiRate  Mean    Biased HFA

New York Giants                  105.2      103.8      104.2      2.0

Green Bay Packers             111.5      111.0      110.8      3.5

New Orleans Saints            113.8      111.5      106.7      5.0

San Francisco 49ers          105.9      105.9      104.9      3.5

New England Patriots        110.5      109.7      108.5      2.0

Baltimore Ravens               105.4     105.6       107.0     4.0

Houston Texans                  100.8     100.9       103.3     1.5

Denver Broncos                     95.0     94.7        98.3       1.5

100 Simulations of Each Game

New Orleans at San Francisco

Simulation Wins

New Orleans 62

San Francisco 38

Average Sim Score

New Orleans 25.6

San Francisco 22.7

Beat Spread (NO -3 ½)

New Orleans 31

San Francisco 69

Biggest Win

New Orleans 29 (42-13)

San Francisco 16 (37-21)

Denver at New England

Simulation Wins

New England 97

Denver 3

Average Sim Score

New England 30.3

Denver 11.4

Beat Spread (NE -13 ½)

New England 48

Denver 52

Biggest Win

New England 41 (51-10)

Denver 6 (20-14)

Houston at Baltimore

Simulation Wins

Baltimore 58

Houston 42

Average Sim Score

Baltimore 23.7

Houston 19.4

Beat Spread (Bal -7 ½)

Baltimore 33

Houston 67

Biggest Win

Baltimore 25 (35-10)

Houston 19 (26-7)

New York Giants at Green Bay

Simulation Wins

Green Bay 83

New York Giants 17

Average Sim Score

Green Bay 34.9

New York Giants 26.2

Beat Spread (GB -7 ½)

Green Bay 52

New York Giants 48

Biggest Win

Green Bay 23 (41-18)

New York Giants 11 (38-27)

Monday, January 09, 2012

The Louisiana Superdome

New Orleans, Louisiana

8:30 PM EST

TV: ESPN (pre-game begins at 2:00 PM EST)

L S U 13-0 vs. Alabama 11-1

Vegas Spread: Alabama by 2  Totals: 40

We simulated this game 100 times, and here are the results below:

Sim Wins: Alabama 61  L S U 39

Average Sim Score: Alabama 20.1  L S U 15.7

Alabama beat the spread: 58

LSU beat the spread: 38

Push: 4

Biggest Alabama Win in the sim: 22 points

Biggest L S U Win in the sim: 12 points

We looked at all the sims individually to find the one that most accurately represented the mean.  We found one sim where Alabama won 20-16, and here are the stats from that one sim.

The championship round of the PiRate Ratings Computer Simulated College Football Playoffs was simulated Friday morning, January 6, 2012, and the results and statistics are listed below.

For those of you new to this experiment, here is how the PiRates conduct this simulated National Championship playoff:

The champions of the ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12, and SEC received automatic bids.

Any other conference champion that finished in the top 12 of the BCS rankings also receives an automatic bid.

After these two rules were applied, at-large invitations were extended to the number of teams needed to complete a 12-team tournament, based on BCS ranking.

Our 12-team tournament gave the top four BCS-ranked teams a bye, while teams seeded 5-12 played in the opening round. 

The Dandy Dozen For This Season Were:

Automatic Bids

ACC Champion: Clemson 10-3  BCS #15

Big East Champion: West Virginia 9-3   BCS #23

Big Ten Champion: Wisconsin 11-2   BCS # 10

Big 12 Champion: Oklahoma State 11-1   BCS #3

Pac-12 Champion: Oregon 11-2   BCS #5

SEC Champion: L S U 13-0   BCS #1

Other Qualifying Conference Champions

No other conference champions finished in the BCS top 12.

At-large Bids (6)

BCS #2: Alabama 11-1

BCS #4: Stanford 11-1

BCS #6: Arkansas 10-2

BCS #7: Boise State 11-1

BCS #8: Kansas State 10-2

BCS #9: South Carolina 10-2

The Opening Round Results

Kansas State 30  South Carolina 20

Oregon 41  West Virginia 17

Wisconsin 38  Boise State 26

Clemson 50  Arkansas 44 3ot

The Elite 8 Results

L S U  44  Kansas State  16

Oregon 38  Stanford 27

Wisconsin 24  Alabama 19

Oklahoma State 44  Clemson 20

The Final Four Results

Oregon 39  L S U 34

Wisconsin 41  Oklahoma State 38

Simper Bowl Facts

The Oregon Ducks and Wisconsin Badgers actually played in this year’s Rose Bowl, and the Simper Bowl takes place in the same vicinity at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum.  This marked the second time in Simper Bowl history that the computer simulated National Championship Game featured teams that actually squared off in a bowl.

We went ahead and simulated this game 100 times after we simulated it the one time to represent the Simper Bowl.  The winner of the Simper Bowl only won 37 of the 100 simulations performed after the Simper Bowl, so we would call the winner of this game an upset.

And, the 2011-12 Simper Bowl Champions Are: THE OREGON DUCKS!

Congratulations to the Ducks, as they defeated Wisconsin 38-30 in the lone simulation prior to the 100 sims performed afterwards.  Wisconsin won 63 of the 100 simulations performed after we recorded the results of the Simper Bowl.

Here are the Simper Bowl Stats:

On Monday morning, January 9, 2012, we will reveal the results of 100 simulations of the BCS’s mythical national title game between L S U and Alabama.

What you will see below are the following results:

1. How many of the 100 simulations each team won

2. The Average score of the 100 simulations for each team

3. The number or times out of 100 each simulation covered the spread for the teams (with the number of pushes as well)

4. The largest outlier score for each team

The PiRate Ratings will not endorse wagering on these games based on this data.  It is experimental, and although the simulator has been accurate in the past in picking winners, it has been about 55% accurate against the spread, which is not worthy of using as an investment tool.  For any tool to be worthwhile in picking games against the spread, it must top 57.4%, which is 5% above the break-even mark.

Saturday, July 7, 2012

4:30 PM EST (NBC)—Cincinnati Bengals 9-7-0 at Houston Texans 10-6-0

Vegas Line: Houston by 3

Totals: 38

100 Simulations

Cincinnati 54  Houston 46

Average Simulation Score

Cincinnati 16.8  Houston 14.4  31.2 total points

Covered Spread

Cincinnati 71

Houston 24

Push 5

Outlier Scores

Cincinnati 34  Houston 10

Houston 24  Cincinnati 6

Saturday, January 7, 2012

8:00 PM EST (NBC)–Detroit Lions 10-6-0 at New Orleans Saints 13-3-0

Vegas Line: New Orleans by 10 ½

Totals: 58

100 Simulations

New Orleans 81  Detroit 19

Average Simulation Score

New Orleans 32.6  Detroit 23.1  55.7 total points

Covered Spread

Detroit 54

New Orleans 46

Outlier Scores

New Orleans 48  Detroit 17 & New Orleans 45  Detroit 14

Detroit 38  New Orleans 27

Sunday, January 8, 2012

1:00 PM EST (FOX)—Atlanta Falcons 10-6-0 at New York Giants 9-7-0

Vegas Line: New York Giants by 3

Totals: 47 ½

100 Simulations

New York Giants 53  Atlanta 47

Average Simulation Score

New York Giants 26.7  Atlanta 23.8  50.5 total points

Covered Spread

Atlanta 47

New York Giants 46

Push 7

Outlier Scores

New York Giants 38  Atlanta 14

Atlanta 35  New York Giants 13

Sunday, July 8, 2012

4:30 PM EST (CBS)—Pittsburgh Steelers 12-4-0 at Denver Broncos 8-8-0

Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 8

Totals: 34 ½

100 Simulations

Pittsburgh 92  Denver 8

Average Simulation Score

Pittsburgh 25.3  Denver 8.7  34.0 total points

Covered Spread

Pittsburgh 79

Denver 18

Push 3

Outlier Scores

Pittsburgh 41  Denver 10

Denver 16  Pittsburgh 10

Reminder: Check back Friday morning for the results of our simulated NCAA Playoffs—Simper Bowl V. 

Check back Friday afternoon for the results of 100 simulations of the BCS National Championship Game.

While there is not a team with a losing record like last year, this year’s Wildcard Round features just two playoff-worthy teams and six mediocre teams.  At least two mediocre teams will advance to the Divisional Playoff Round next week.

In the “good ole days,” the top two teams in each league (AFL & NFL) met up in their championship game the week after the conclusion of the regular season, unless there was a tie for one of the two spots.  Then, a special playoff game took place the week after the regular season concluded, and the Championship Game took place the following week.

If you look at how that would have played out with this year’s races, let us place the East and South in one division and the North and West in another division.

In the AFC, New England would have won their division, while Baltimore and Pittsburgh would face each other in a playoff in Baltimore, with the winner facing New England in Foxboro next week.

In the NFC, Green Bay would have been facing New Orleans.  San Francisco and Atlanta would have headed to Miami to face off in the Playoff Bowl (look it up).

This would have given the NFL a much truer gauge and made the regular season much more important than it is today.  Rarely could teams rest their key players in the final week(s) and expect to make the playoffs.  The Super Bowl would guarantee only top flight teams as participants.  It would be a pox if somehow Denver or Cincinnati made it to the Super Bowl this year.  What would a Green Bay-Denver Super Bowl be worth?  The Packers would score enough points on their first two drives to win the game.

Final Regular Season PiRate, Mean, and Biased Ratings

The Playoff Simulator

We were out bright and early this AM, on our way to our local university computer lab to gain access to the computer simulator with the football simulation program.  However, it was not open today, so we will simulate the Wildcard Playoff games Tuesday, January 3, and report the results in a separate entry Tuesday afternoon.  Sorry for the inconvenience, but I guess college employees deserve a day off too.

This Week’s PiRate, Mean, and Biased Spreads

The semifinal round of the PiRate Ratings Computer Simulated College Football Playoffs was simulated Friday, December 30, and the results and statistics are listed below.

For those of you new to this experiment, here is how the PiRates conduct this simulated National Championship playoff:

The champions of the ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12, and SEC receive automatic bids.

Any other conference champion that finishes in the top 12 of the BCS rankings also receives an automatic bid.

After these two rules have been applied, at-large invitations are extended to the number of teams needed to complete a 12-team tournament, based on BCS ranking.

Our 12-team tournament gives the top four BCS-ranked teams a bye, while teams seeded 5-12 play in the opening round. 

The Dandy Dozen For This Season Are:

Automatic Bids

ACC Champion: Clemson 10-3  BCS #15

Big East Champion: West Virginia 9-3   BCS #23

Big Ten Champion: Wisconsin 11-2   BCS # 10

Big 12 Champion: Oklahoma State 11-1   BCS #3

Pac-12 Champion: Oregon 11-2   BCS #5

SEC Champion: L S U 13-0   BCS #1

Other Qualifying Conference Champions

No other conference champions finished in the BCS top 12.

At-large Bids (6)

BCS #2: Alabama 11-1

BCS #4: Stanford 11-1

BCS #6: Arkansas 10-2

BCS #7: Boise State 11-1

BCS #8: Kansas State 10-2

BCS #9: South Carolina 10-2

The Opening Round Results

Kansas State 30  South Carolina 20

Oregon 41  West Virginia 17

Wisconsin 38  Boise State 26

Clemson 50  Arkansas 44 3ot

The Elite 8 Results

L S U  44  Kansas State  16

Oregon 38  Stanford 27

Wisconsin 24  Alabama 19

Oklahoma State 44  Clemson 20

The Final Four

Oregon at LSU

Wisconsin at Oklahoma State

The Results

Oregon 39  L S U 34

Wisconsin 41  Oklahoma State 38

Championship Game Set

Join us Friday afternoon, January 6, 2012, for Simper Bowl V, as the Oregon Ducks and Wisconsin Badgers face off at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum.  This marks the second time that the computer simulated National Championship Game has featured teams actually squaring off in a bowl.

On Monday, January 9, 2012, we will reveal the results of 100 simulations of the BCS’s mythical national title game between L S U and Alabama.

With a lot of bowls and week 17 in the NFL, this time of year can be tough to prognosticate.  We have no love affairs with any of the coming week’s bowl games.  We cannot form any lovable teasers or money line parlays.

We are going with five straight plays, all from the NFL, as our suggestions for the week.

1. Oakland -3 vs. San Diego

The Chargers stopped caring about the 2011 season about midway through the second quarter of last week’s game.  Detroit kept playing, while the Bolts’ players began plotting their itineraries home for the winter.

This game means a lot to the Raiders.  They are still alive in the playoff hunt, and we believe they have a better chance at getting into the playoffs than any other team they are competing against.  Additionally, they are playing this game for Al.  Al Davis was a Chargers’ assistant when he took over as head coach of the Raiders almost five decades ago.  He made it a habit of beating up on his former team, both as coach and later as owner of the silver and black.  To qualify for the playoffs in this season would be a special gift for their former owner.  Look for Oakland to win big.

2. New York Giants -3 vs. Dallas

A couple weeks ago, Tom Coughlin looked like a lame duck coach, and the Cowboys looked like sure winners in the NFC East.  Now, the opposite looks true.  Jason Garrett looks like he has lost control of the team, and Jerry Jones looks to be exerting more control over how they Cowboys will play.  The Giants look playoff ready, and even though they are not world beaters at home, we believe they will enjoy the best home field advantage they have enjoyed in a long time, maybe even like they were playing at old Yankee Stadium once again.

We believe the boys from the Gotham will win this game by double digits, much like they did last week against their hometown rival.

3. New York Jets +3 vs. Miami

This is our contrarian pick of the week.  Everybody assumes the Jets are done for the year.  They have been 8-7 before and on the outside looking in.  Sure, Miami has looked more like a playoff-caliber team as of late, but the Dolphins have nothing real to play for in this game, and many of their players will already be looking forward to the off-season with no desire to risk injury. 

We believe LaDainian Tomlinson has one more big game in his legs.  We believe the Jets’ defense has one heroic effort left to display.  We believe the Jets have one more rabbit to pull out of their hats.  We’ll go with Rex Ryan’s rambunctious roughriders to win this game by a touchdown or more.

4. Cleveland +7 vs. Pittsburgh

This is a huge rivalry game, and the Browns know how to play their nemesis from just up the road.  Cleveland stayed within contention on a Thursday night at Heinz field last month, and we believe they are waiting in ambush to send the Steelers to the wildcard round of the playoffs.

The crowd will turn out on New Year’s Day to really support their Browns, making the entire field a dog pound.  We believe Cleveland will send them home happy, or at least disappointed following a narrow loss.  We’ll take that touchdown and go with the underdog.

5. Baltimore -2 vs. Cincinnati

This is the game of the week, better than the Giants-Cowboys game.  Cincinnati faces elimination with a loss, but they can still back into the playoffs at 9-7.  Baltimore earns a playoff bye with a win, and they have a small shot at the top seed.

The Ravens have not fared all that well on the road this year, but we believe they are ready to remedy that ailment this week.  This game will be a surprise sellout thanks to a 2 for 1 ticket giveaway, but we believe Baltimore will spoil the party with a defensive win.

The playoff races are quite easy to figure out as we enter week 17.  In the NFC, the winner of the Giants-Dallas game wins the East Division and earns the number four seed.  The Giants would earn the spot in the event of a tie.

Atlanta and Detroit will be the wildcards, and if they finished tied at 10-6, the Falcons will be the number five seed, and the Lions will be the number six seed.

San Francisco holds the tiebreaker over New Orleans for the number two seed, so the only way for the Saints to earn a first round bye is to beat Carolina and hope the 49ers lose to the lowly Rams, a team that will be fighting for the overall number one NFL Draft pick.

In the AFC, Denver and Oakland are tied for first in the West Division, but the Broncos hold the tiebreaker over the Raiders in the event they finish tied at 9-7, 8-7-1, or 8-8.

Houston is guaranteed the number three seed no matter what they do this week in their game against Tennessee.

New England, Baltimore, and Pittsburgh all have a shot at the top seed in the AFC.  If the Patriots win, they earn the spot.  If the Pats lose, Baltimore will take it away with a win over Cincinnati.  Pittsburgh can take it if both New England and Baltimore lose, and they beat Cleveland.

As for the Steelers and Ravens, Baltimore holds the tiebreaker edge.  The team not winning the North Division will be the number five seed.

The big story involves the final wildcard spot.  Cincinnati has the best percentage chance of taking the final seed.  If the Bengals beat Baltimore, Cinti is in the playoffs.  Should the Bengals lose, they could still earn the number six seed if the Jets lose or tie to Miami and only one or no AFC West teams finish 9-7.  If both Oakland and Denver win, then the Bengals will miss out on the playoffs if they lose to Baltimore.

Oakland has the next best chance at earning the wildcard.  The Raiders must beat San Diego.  Of course, if Denver loses, the Raiders would win the West Division.  If both Oakland and Denver win to finish 9-7, the Raiders will earn a wildcard spot if the Jets beat Miami and Tennessee does not finish 9-7.

Denver cannot earn a wildcard spot, because if they win this week, they are the West Division champions.  If the Broncos lose, they can still be the West champs if Oakland loses.

The Jets have a somewhat remote shot at making the playoffs if they beat Miami and the Bengals lose.  Tennessee would have to lose to Houston, and either Oakland or Denver would have to lose or tie. 

Tennessee has the least likely chance of earning a wildcard spot.  If the Bengals lose, and the Titans beat Houston, there are two ways they can earn the final spot.  The first way would be for the Jets to lose to Miami while both Oakland and Denver win their games.  The second way would be for the Jets to Win while either Oakland or Denver fail to win their games.

Here is our look at what we think will happen:

NFC

The Giants beat Dallas to earn the number four seed.

Atlanta beats Tampa Bay to earn the number five seed.

Detroit becomes the number six seed.

Both San Francisco and New Orleans win, giving the 49ers the number two seed and the bye.

AFC

New England beats Buffalo to sew up the number one seed.

Baltimore edges Cincinnati in a near-empty Paul Brown Stadium to earn the number two seed.

Houston already owns the number three seed and rests its starters, but their defense shuts down Tennessee, knocking the Titans out of the playoffs.

Denver comes through in the final minutes to beat Kansas City and win the West, while Oakland handles San Diego to finish 9-7.

Miami beats the Jets to knock them out of the playoffs, thus giving the Raiders the number six seed.

Wildcard Round

#6 Detroit at #3 New Orleans

#5 Atlanta at #4 New York Giants

#6 Oakland at #3 Houston

#5 Pittsburgh at #4 Denver

Divisional Round

#3 New Orleans at #2 San Francisco

#5 Atlanta at #1 Green Bay

#6 Oakland at #1 New England

#5 Pittsburgh at #2 Baltimore

Conference Championships

New Orleans at Green Bay

Baltimore at New England

Super Bowl

Green Bay vs. New England

Champions

Green Bay

This Week’s PiRate, Mean, and Biased Ratings