With the expanded 68-team field entering its second year, this weekend becomes more important.  The positions of mid-major and low-major teams on the bubble will move with each game.

The NCAA Tournament Selection Committee has instructed the public in how they select the at-large teams.  RPI ratings are important, but they are not the be all and end all.  The committee stresses that they want members watching these games, trying to figure out which teams “look” like they could win tournament games.

With that in mind, let’s look at the Bracket Buster schedule, and then let’s look at every conference, trying to figure out which teams would be in the Big Dance if the season ended today.

America East

1 bid: Conference Tournament Champion

Stony Brook (12-2/17-8) and Vermont (12-2/18-10) lead Boston U (10-4/14-14) by two games.  Stony Brook had won 14 of 15 games until losing at Vermont by 19 last Sunday.  The Sea Wolves have no spectacular non-conference wins.

Vermont has won nine in a row and 12 of their last 13.

Atlantic Ten

2 or 3 bids (most likely 2)

Temple (9-2/20-5) and St. Louis (9-3/21-5) are both on the bubble, with the Owls resting near the top of that bubble thanks to wins over Duke and Wichita State.  Xavier (7-4/16-9) has played their way into needing to win the automatic bid.  UMass (7-4/18-7) has the talent to win the conference tournament, as does St. Joe’s (7-5/17-10), LaSalle (6-5/17-9), and Dayton (6-5/16-9).

ACC

5-7 bids (probably 6)

North Carolina (9-2/22-4) and Duke (9-2/22-4) are definitely in.  Florida State (9-2/18-7) needs one more win to be a cinch.  Virginia (6-5/19-6 needs two more wins to be a lock.  These four will be called on Selection Sunday.

Three other teams are still in the hunt for at-large bids, and they are in order of preference: North Carolina St. (7-4/18-8), Miami (6-5/15-9), and Maryland (5-6/15-10).

Atlantic Sun

1 bid: Conference Tournament Champion

Perennial champion Belmont (12-2/20-7) is locked in a tight race with Mercer (12-2/20-7) for the regular season title.  But, the winner will only be guaranteed a bid in the NIT if they cannot win the conference tournament.

Mercer hosts the tournament this year, so the Bears have to be considered the favorite.  Belmont has yet to play at Mercer.  The Bruins close the regular season in Macon.

Big 12

5-7 bids (probably 6)

Losing Nebraska and Colorado did not affect this league’s basketball strength, and the same amount of teams should make the tournament this year than last.

What’s a Big Dance without Kansas (11-2/21-5)?  The Jayhawks are a lock, as are Missouri (11-2/24-2) and Baylor (9-4/22-4).  Any of these three could still be around in the Elite 8.

Two surprise teams come next.  Iowa State (8-5/18-8) is a positive surprise, while Texas (7-6/17-9) have not quite made enough of a case for themselves.  Fred Hoiberg has done a great job in Ames, and the Cyclones need maybe two more wins to be locks.  The Longhorns must win at least three more times to be on the safe side of the bubble.

Kansas State (6-7/17-8) is slowly falling down in the ranks of the elite.  The Wildcats must win three of their final five regular season games and at least once in the Big 12 Tournament to be considered a shoo-in.  Their next two are at Baylor and at Missouri, and the boys from the Little Apple could be 6-9/17-10 on Wednesday morning. 

Big East

6 to 9 bids (probably 7)

Recent trends in this league has made a muddy mess out of the group in the middle.  Five teams (Syracuse 13-1/26-1, Marquette 10-3/21-5, Notre Dame 10-3/18-8, Georgetown 9-4/19-5, and Louisville 8-5/20-6) will be dancing for sure. 

After that quintet, one to four more teams could make the dance, and five teams are competing for those one to four bids.  South Florida (9-4/16-10) is actually ahead of the other four in the conference standings, but the Bulls are actually the lowest team in this mini-bubble.  Looking down at USF in the bubble watch are: Cincinnati (8-5/18-8), Seton Hall (7-7/18-8), West Virginia (7-7/17-10), and Connecticut (6-7/17-9).

Pitt (4-10/15-12) could still make some noise at MSG in the conference tournament, but do not expect the Panthers to make a UConn-like run.

Big Sky

1 bid: Conference Tournament Champion

Weber State (13-1/21-4) has won 15 of 16 games, but the Wildcats are not on the bubble.  Weber State should win the automatic bid, and if they do, keep an eye on Damian Lillard, one of the best players you may not know.

Montana (12-1/19-6) can still win the regular season title, as they host the Wildcats to conclude the regular season on February 28.  The Grizzlies have won 14 or 15 games, losing only at Weber State. 

The regular season champion hosts the semifinal and final rounds, and the top two teams get byes to the semifinals, which makes seeding very important in this league.

Big South

1 bid: Conference Tournament Champion

Four teams have separated themselves from the rest of the pack, and it is hard to believe any other team would have a chance to win the conference tournament.

UNC-Asheville (14-2/19-8) and Coastal Carolina (11-5/18-8) are the two top teams in the league, and Campbell (11-5/17-11) and Charleston Southern (10-6/16-10) are the best of the rest.

UNCA can shoot and score, but they are a little soft inside.  CCU has more muscle inside and has shown a penchant for being able to play with major conference teams.  The Chanticleers own wins over LSU and Clemson.

Big Ten

6 to 8 bids (probably 7)

This league’s games have been on the boring side this year, and we have a feeling that more than one tournament team will fall in upsets in the Big Dance.  The league has become too controlled, and underdogs that can score cheap baskets could pull off multiple upsets in the tournament.

Michigan State (10-3/21-5) and Ohio State (10-3/22-4) can lose out and still get in the tournament.  Michigan (9-4/19-7), Wisconsin (8-5/19-7), and Indiana (8-6/20-6) will be in unless they lose out.  So count these five as sure things.

Purdue (7-6/17-9) is on the good side of the bubble.  Minnesota (5-8/17-9), Illinois (5-8/16-10, and Northwestern (5-8/15-10) are on the outside looking in.  If any of this trio can go 4-1 and then win their first conference tournament game, it could be enough to sneak in as one of the four majors that must go to Dayton.

Big West

1 or 2 bids

Long Beach State (12-0/19-6) has done enough to be on the bubble should they not win the conference tournament.  The 49ers played a brutally tough non-conference schedule, and they get one more in this week’s bracket buster game against Creighton.  LBSU has wins over Pitt, Xavier, and Auburn, and they have close losses to North Carolina, San Diego State, Kansas, and Louisville.

In conference play, the 49ers are outscoring their opponents by an average of 75.9 to 62.7.  Cal State Fullerton (9-3/17-7) is the top contender in a possible upset chance.

Colonial Athletic

1 to 3 bids

Here is where the RPI rankings could prove to be either more or less important than most people think.  This league’s RPI rankings are lackluster this year, but there are three teams strong enough to win an NCAA Tournament game, maybe even stronger than last year’s surprise Final Four participant.

Drexel (14-2/22-5) is squarely on the bubble.  Coach Bruiser Flint could be on his way to bigger and better things after bringing the Dragons this far.  They could be better than any of the Big Five in Philly this year.  Drexel has won 20 of their last 21, including wins over VCU and George Mason, the teams fighting them in the standings.  If the Dragons can win at Cleveland State this weekend, they may move close to sure thing status.

George Mason (14-2/22-6) is on par with the GMU team that played in the Final Four in the previous decade.  Ryan Pearson has the moves inside to give the Patriots balance.

Virginia Commonwealth (13-3/22-6) may be better this year than last when they snuck into the Final Four after having to play in the first round in Dayton.  However, the Rams may not even get into the tournament unless they close out with some key wins.

Conference USA

2 or 3 bids

Two teams, Southern Mississippi (9-2/22-4) and Memphis (9-2/19-7) have earned at-large bids if they do not win the conference tournament.  A host of also-rans could be considered contenders if they get hot in the conference tournament, but we cannot really see someone other than the Golden Eagles or Tigers cutting down the nets. 

The top contenders are Central Florida (7-4/18-7) and Tulsa (8-4/15-11).

Great West

0 bids

This league does not receive an automatic bid.  Utah Valley (7-0/18-10) will earn an automatic bid to the College Insider Tournament if they win the conference title.  They have a 2 ½ game lead.

Horizon

1 bid: Conference Tournament Champion

This league lost all of its luster once January gave way to February.  At one point, two or even three teams were in competition for an at-large bid, but now, none of the trio has a chance unless they win the automatic bid.

Valparaiso (12-4/19-9) leads fading Cleveland State (10-5/20-7).  Detroit (10-6/16-12) and Butler (10-6/16-12) will compete with those two in the conference tournament.  Butler might still be considered the favorite when the conference tournament begins.  16-2 in the postseason in the last two years is enough to qualify as a tournament-savvy team.

Ivy League

1 or 2 bids

Harvard (7-1/21-3) could still earn an at-large bid if they somehow lost to Yale twice (at home in the regular season and then in a playoff) and won the rest of their games.  This has about as much chance of happening as Ron Paul’s chances to win the Republican nomination.

Yale (6-2/16-6) lost at home to their arch-rival by 30, so the chances of the Bulldogs beating the Crimson twice are virtually nil.

M A A C

1 or 2 bids

We are giving Iona (13-3/21-6) the benefit of the doubt in the bubble watch, but we really do not think the Gaels are bubble-worthy yet.  A bracket buster win over Nevada might put them on the lower end of the bubble, but it would still be a tough road to an at-large bid should they lose to another MAAC team in the conference tournament.

Loyola (MD) (12-4/19-7) is the chief competitor.

M A C

1 bid: Conference Tournament Champion

Akron (11-1/19-7), Kent State (9-3/19-6), and Buffalo (9-3/16-7) are the top contenders to win the MAC Tournament, with Ohio U (8-4/20-6) the best of the rest.  One of these four should win the league’s only bid.

Kent State has won seven games in a row by an average margin of better than 13 points.  The Golden Flashes own a win over West Virginia, so they are capable of competing in the Big Dance.

M E A C

1 bid: Conference Tournament Champion

This league has not fared well in recent years, but things could be a little different this year.  Two teams, Savannah State (9-2/16-10) and Norfolk State (10-3/18-9), have enough talent to get past a first round opponent in Dayton. 

Missouri Valley

2 or 3 bids (probably 2)

Wichita State (14-2/23-4) is already a lock and should be a higher seed than their opening game opponent.  The Shockers could sneak into the top six in seeding.

Creighton (12-4/22-5) has fallen back a step or two in the last 10 days, but the Blue Jays are also already in the Big Dance.  They have the Jeremy Lin of college basketball in coach’s son Doug McDermott.  McDermott averages 23 points and 8 rebounds per game, and he shoots like Larry Bird (61+% FG, 83% FT, and 50% 3-pt).

A host of contenders could get hot and win Arch Madness in St. Louis.  Missouri State (9-7/16-12), Illinois State (8-8/16-11), and Drake (8-8/15-12) are the three top contenders, but keep an eye on Northern Iowa (7-9/17-11).

Mountain West

3 or 4 bids (probably 3)

New Mexico (7-2/21-4), UNLV (6-3/22-5), and San Diego State (6-3/20-5) are in barring a total collapse.

Whether or not a fourth team can surprise in the MWC Tournament is the question.  There are three other teams capable of winning the automatic bid.  TCU (5-4/15-10), Wyoming (4-5/18-7), and Colorado State (4-5/15-9) all have the talent to make a run.

Northeast

1 bid: Conference Tournament Champion

We follow this league more than most other pundits.  It is our opinion that two teams deserve to be highly considered for the Big Dance, but we know that only the conference tournament champion will get a bid.

Long Island (14-1/20-7) and Wagner (13-2/22-4) are both tournament worthy.  LIU swept Wagner in two close games, and it will be hard to defeat the Blackbirds to beat the Seahawks a third time if they meet in the Championship Game.

Jamal Olasewere and Julian Boyd give LIU a potent inside attack.  The dynamic duo average 34.6 points and 17 rebounds per game.  Jason Brickman is the best point guard in the league.

Robert Morris (11-4/20-8) is the only team to beat the Blackbirds.  They should earn a post-season bid to one of the lesser tournaments.

Ohio Valley

1 or 2 bids

The OVC has only once before sent more than one team to the Big Dance, and that was more than 20 years ago when two teams (Akron and Middle Tennessee) no longer in the league made the field.

Murray State (13-1/25-1) can virtually wrap up an at-large bid with a win tomorrow over Saint Mary’s.  The Racers probably will not need it, but there are two teams capable of knocking them off in the conference tournament.

Tennessee State (11-4/18-10) penned the one loss on Murray, and they did it on the road.  The Tigers benefit from having the conference tournament in Nashville, less than two miles from campus.

Tennessee Tech (9-6/17-11) is the other team to watch out for.

Pac-12

1 or 2 bids (probably 2)

This is not a typo.  As little as one team could receive an invitation to dance from a conference that is supposed to be one of the Big Six leagues.

California (11-3/21-6) is the only sure thing.  If the Bears win the Pac-12 Tournament, then the boys from Berkeley could be the only league team in the NCAA Tournament.

This league’s lack of star quality should make for a great conference tournament.  Washington (11-3/18-8), Arizona (10-4/19-8), Colorado (9-4/17-8), Oregon (9-5/18-8), Stanford (8-6/18-8), and UCLA (8-6/15-11) all have a shot at winning the automatic bid.  None of these teams are spectacular, but any one of them could get hot and win three or four games in three or four days.

Patriot

1 bid: Conference Tournament Champion

Bucknell (10-1/20-7) is the prohibitive favorite to return to the Big Dance.  Lehigh (8-3/20-7) and American (8-3/17-9) are the top contenders.

S E C

3 to 6 bids (probably 4)

Kentucky (11-0/25-1) and Florida (8-3/20-6) are already in the tournament.  Vanderbilt (7-4/18-8) probably needs just two more wins to get in.

After those three, it is a dogfight for fourth through seventh.  Mississippi State (6-5/19-7) is the leading contender for a possible fourth bid, while Tennessee (6-5/14-12), Alabama (5-6/16-9), and Arkansas (5-6/17-9) contending for possible fifth and sixth bids.  If one of these three can win a combination of five more regular season and conference tournament games, they should sneak into the Dance.

Southern

1 bid: Conference Tournament Champion

Davidson (14-2/20-6) is close to being added to the bubble.  Maybe a Wildcat win over Wichita State would put them on the bubble.  However, we feel like the Wildcats will get there via an automatic bid.  The rest of the league is mediocre or worse.

Southland

1 bid: Conference Tournament Champion

Texas-Arlington (12-0/20-5) is a little weaker than Davidson, and the Mavericks could get a little more respect with a win at Weber State in the Bracket Buster game.

The rest of the league is marginally better than the rest of the Southern Conference, so we believe UTA has a rather strong shot of winning the automatic bid.

S W A C

1 bid: Conference Tournament Champion

This league has struggled in recent years, and this year should be no different.  There really aren’t any really good teams in the SWAC this year.  Mississippi Valley is 13-0 in league play and 1-11 outside the league.  Southern (9-4/13-13) has the best out of conference mark at 4-9, and two of those wins came against non-Division 1 teams.

Summit

1 or 2 bids

Oral Roberts (16-1/24-5) is on the bubble, and if the Golden Eagles handle Akron with ease, like we think they will, they could move into the middle of the bubble.

South Dakota State (13-3/21-7) is the principle rival to ORU in the conference tournament.  Should SDSU beat ORU in the final round, then ORU would be given strong consideration in the at-large picks.

Sunbelt

1 or 2 bids

Middle Tennessee (12-1/23-4) is in the same boat as Oral Roberts, but the Blue Raiders do not play in the Bracket Buster.  With a high RPI, Middle Tennessee should rank just below the second choice in the West Coast on the mid-major bubble.

Denver (9-5/19-8) is the top contender, but we believe the Blue Raiders will not need an at-large bid to get in the Dance.

West Coast

2 or 3 bids (probably 2)

Gonzaga (11-2/21-4) is a lock for the Big Dance based on their out-of-conference slate.  The Bulldogs trail Saint Mary’s (12-2/23-4) by a half game in the standings.  The Gaels can wrap up an at-large bid with a win at Murray State tomorrow.

BYU (10-3/22-6) discovered that the WCC is as tough as the MWC.  The Cougars will probably have to make it to the finals of the WCC Tournament to earn an at-large bid.

Loyola Marymount (10-4/17-10) is out of at-large consideration, but the Lions are talented enough to pull off a couple of upsets and play spoiler at the conference tournament.

W A C

1 bid: Conference Tournament Champion

Nevada (10-1/22-4) is in the same boat as Davidson and UT-Arlington.  The Wolf Pack need a big win at Iona to be considered to be at the bottom of the bubble.  They have won 19 of 20 games, and they are flying under the radar due to their intrastate rival down south.  Had the Wolf Pack defeated UNLV by four instead of losing by four, they would be on the bubble and probably ranked in the top 25.

We have limited this list to coaches 50 years old and younger, have limited or no previous experience at a “Big Six” conference, and have a philosophy of aggressive and exciting basketball.

10. Steve Prohm—Murray State (37 years old)

Prohm is only in his first season as head coach at Murray State, but his Racers are ranked number nine in the current poll with a 23-0 record.  No Ohio Valley Conference team has been ranked in the Top 10 since Western Kentucky in 1971.

Prohm worked his way up from a low assistant to a top assistant.  He is noted for being able to recruit in the cracks—to find hidden gems.  Murray State has been the basketball equivalent of Miami of Ohio.  This school is the Cradle of Coaches on the hardwood.  Ron Greene, Steve Newton, Mark Gottfried, Mick Cronin, and Billy Kennedy all advanced to major conference schools after serving a stint in Murray.  Prohm may need a few more years to prove himself, but he will coach in the big time one day.

9. Bruiser Flint—Drexel (46 years old)

Flint is the James Brown of basketball coaches.  He is the hardest working coach in America.  He demands the same from his players, and he has turned Drexel’s fortunes around.  The Dragons have a great shot at making the Big Dance this season, and their fans have become rabid supporters of the team.  

Flint was a John Calipari assistant at U Mass, and he followed Calipari there as head coach.  He guided the Minutemen to multiple NCAA Tournament berths even though he was saddled with sanctions left there by Calipari.

He seems to be a perfect fit for a Big East or Big Ten school.

8. Dan Hurley—Wagner (38 years old)

The Hurley family is an Eastern version of the Sutton family.  Dan is the younger brother of former Duke star Bobby.  He played at Seton Hall in the 1990’s.  In just his second season at Wagner, he has the program at the top of the Northeastern Conference in a neck and neck race with Long Island.  Hurley knows the game inside and out, and he has a lot of recruiting contacts in the Metro New York-New Jersey area.

7. Greg McDermott—Creighton (47 years old)

Remember Press Maravich?  His son was a fairly good ballplayer, but it did not lead to LSU becoming a national power.  How about Al McGuire?  His son Allie was a star at Marquette, but poppa McGuire was an even better head coach.

Greg McDermott has the next Larry Bird playing on his team, and said player comes from his own seed.  Doug McDermott is a combination of Jimmer Fredette and Adam Morrison. 

Coach McDermott led Northern Iowa to three consecutive NCAA Tournament berths.  He advanced to Iowa State and led them to respectability, but the Cyclones were never able to get to the next level in the touch Big 12.  Given a chance to coach a major conference team with some basketball tradition, he would shine.  He seems like a great fit for the SEC or ACC.

6. Steve Alford—New Mexico (47 years old)

Alford has made New Mexico a mid-major power.  He won big at Southwest Missouri, and despite some ups and downs, he won at Iowa.  Since his departure, the Hawkeyes have fallen to the basement of the Big Ten.  Alford has a temper like his mentor, and he tends to use a lot of vulgarity, but he would be a great fit back in the Big Ten or Big East, where fans seem to go for that kind of thing.

5. Dave Rice—UNLV (43 years old)

Rice is only in his first year in Las Vegas, but he has been noted as perhaps the top assistant coach in the West for years.  Everywhere he has been as an assistant, his teams have won a high percentage of games and scored a lot of points.

Rice played for Jerry Tarkanian at UNLV, and his first coaching stop was Tark’s last season as a coach in Vegas.  He was an assistant at Utah State and BYU, and he served as the “offensive coordinator of those teams.”

He has brought back the “running” in Runnin’ Rebels at the Thomas and Mack Center, and a UNLV basketball game is the most exciting entertainment in Vegas once again.  He would be the perfect fit in the Pac-12, but his style of coaching would be a good fit at any school.  His teams play like the teams of the mid-1960’s to mid-1970’s when if you did not average 80 points per game, you were not any good.

4. Randy Bennett—Saint Mary’s (49 years old)

Bennett is a world class recruiter—he recruits from all over the world.  His teams have a great inside-outside, high-low presence, and they know how to play consistent basketball.

His only drawback is the long-term contract he has signed.  Any team that wants him will have to pay a hefty buy out.  Bennett turned down the chance to coach in the Pac-12, so he may not have many options left.  However, he could be the perfect coach for a Big Ten, Big 12, or SEC school.

3. Scott Sutton—Oral Roberts (41 years old)

Sutton is the son of former Creighton, Arkansas, Kentucky, and Oklahoma State coach Eddie Sutton.  His ORU teams play the same type of aggressive, Hank Iba-style of ball that poppa Sutton’s teams played.  He teaches fundamentals, and his teams may not be flashy, but they are solid.  Expect ORU to play in the Big Dance this year, and they will be no pushover for a higher seeded team.

2. Gregg Marshall—Wichita State (48 years old)

Marshall established the program at Winthrop and made them the perennial champion of the Big South Conference.  He even won an NCAA Tournament game with a Number 15 seed.

He has already returned the Shockers to dominance in the Missouri Valley Conference, and he has hung a championship banner, albeit an NIT title.

Marshall’s teams play stifling defense and play intelligently on offense.  His teams seldom beat themselves; they play hard, and they exploit any weaknesses.  If a school wants a long string of success, they need to grab him this year.

1. Jim Ferry—Long Island University (44 years old)

Most basketball fans outside of Brooklyn do not know this name, but in our opinion, Jim Ferry is the best college basketball coach in the nation.  Some astute athletic director at a Major college needs to move him to the top of his short list.  He can take a program to the Final Four.

Ferry has won big everywhere he has been in the small college world.  His teams didn’t just win; they won in John Woodenesque manner.  They play aggressive defense, control the boards, and know how to run an organized fast break.  In the halfcourt, his teams move the ball around and know how to score inside.

He took over at LIU when the program was in such pitiful shape, they were playing games in an old theater.  Within a few short years, he had the once storied program back on its feet.  

Last year, LIU was the top low major team in the East.  Following some key graduation losses, the Blackbirds were expected to fall back in the pack in the NEC.  Yet, LIU is back on top again this year in a heated race with Wagner.  

Ferry can win anywhere he goes.  He could take over at a Big East school and make them a powerhouse.  He could do the same for a school in the Big Ten, ACC, and SEC.  In fact, it is our opinion that he could be a major coup for a team in the South.  With his great recruiting ties in the Metro New York-New Jersey area, and with his history of winning big everywhere he has been, he could be the next Frank McGuire.

Sidenote: There is one other coach that we consider to be a wildcard.  He is Duggar Baucom at VMI.  Baucom, 51, falls outside our parameters, but his is a special case.

VMI has about as much chance of competing in basketball as the Kansas City Royals have of winning the next three World Series.  Height restrictions make it impossible for the Keydets to consistently defeat the Virginia’s of the world and close to impossible to beat the Coastal Carolina’s of the world.

Yet, Baucom has achieved a modicum of success, even winning 24 games one year and coming within a game of an automatic trip to the Big Dance.

VMI has led the nation in scoring the last five seasons.  They have been outmanned several times each year, but Baucom’s system has produced as many as 5 to 10 additional wins per year.  

Given a real chance to win and recruit at a major conference school, this system will embarrass a lot of other teams that play a slower, less exciting brand of basketball.  Top recruits do not desire to play in a passive, slow system.  It does not allow them to showcase their talent.  Put them in a fast-paced, 94-foot aggressive system, and all of their skills are on display.  

Baucom would be the perfect fit in the SEC, where dozens of quality talented athletes are available.

Our conclusion: The Republican Party is in big trouble at the present time!  When the race began to heat up last summer, it looked like the GOP had as much chance of unseating President Obama as the Democrats had of unseating Herbert Hoover in 1932.  They needed to isolate on the one candidate that could unite the party and come off as the next Ronald Reagan.  Find a great communicator with executive experience that hailed from a Southern state, the Industrial Midwest, or California.

Only one Governor from the South decided to run, Rick Perry.  He proved to be not up to the task, and he was finished before the first caucus vote was cast.   Jeb Bush never threw his hat in the ring, and Bobby Jindal peaked four years ago.  The only Republican ex-governor of California was not eligible, and his exit from office left him in a bad scandal anyway. 

The Midwest had the ideal candidate, one who would have become a heavy favorite to win in 2012.  Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels chose not to run, citing the desires of his family. 

Tim Pawlenty, former governor of Minnesota, briefly entered the race, but he dropped out following the Iowa Straw Poll last summer.  Had he known that almost every candidate that did not fare well in that straw poll rose to the top of the polls at one time, maybe he would have remained in the race long enough to win the Iowa Caucus.  We will never know, and besides, we do not include Minnesota as part of the Industrial Midwest.

Note: The Industrial Midwest is merely a descriptive name for a group of states that relied on industry for decades as the chief means of employment.  Almost all industries have now deserted the United States for cheaper foreign labor markets. 

Here is the major problem for the GOP.  Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich are unelectable for different reasons!  Gingrich is considered a lone wolf, even though he is really one of the global elite.  However, he has enough ego to try to make numerous changes, and that is not supported by the inside elite.  They will not allow him to become President.  Rick Santorum and Ron Paul have no chance of winning the nomination, so we will not consider either in this submission.  Of course in National polls, both candidates are in dead heats with the President, while Obama has a comfortable lead over Gingrich and a considerable lead over the fading Romney.

Romney is still the apparent front-runner with a very large chance of winning the nomination, so let us concentrate the rest of this submission on why he cannot beat President Obama in the general election.

We at the PiRate Ratings are political junkies.  We have political maps for every Presidential election in US history.  These maps paint an excellent picture of the philosophy and psychology of the American public.

If somebody would have had this information in 1802, they could have forewarned President Jefferson of the impending divide in the country.  Most elections from Jefferson through Lincoln showed the great divide between the states; they could have seen the split between the region that would become the Confederate States of America and the region that would stay loyal to the Union.  The upper Atlantic states and New England States voted one way, and the South and West voted another.  Most elections then were decided in the Midwest, where half a dozen large states swayed the elections. 

After the Civil War, the South remained solid Democrat, believing that the Republican Party was responsible for Reconstruction, carpetbaggers, and scallywags.  The South remained a solid Democrat voting block for many years.  Then, President Johnson brought forth his Great Society in the mid-1960’s, and with it, his Civil Rights Act turned the South around overnight.  Beginning in 1968, the Democrats were finished in the South.  George Wallace won a handful of Southern states campaigning on a segregationist agenda, but Nixon won the rest.

Since 1968, it has been relatively easy to determine the outcome of elections.  The Republicans needed to hold onto their Southern base, winning almost every state from among Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, Tennessee, Arkansas, and Texas.  We do not include Florida in this list, because this state has a large number of non-Southerners residing within its borders.  A high number of Northern retirees, many from the Upper Atlantic and New England, and a large number of Hispanics, give Florida a unique position, making it a swing state.

The Republicans have two options for winning the White House.  The first option is to take California and its 55 electoral votes, better than 20% of the needed 270 electoral votes to win.  By taking California and the South (not including Florida), that gives a GOP candidate 186 electoral votes.  Add 51 more electoral votes from western states that almost always vote GOP (Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, Utah, Arizona, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, and Oklahoma, and this brings the total to 237.

From there, only 33 more electoral votes are needed for a GOP victory.  Florida has 29 electoral votes, and if a Republican takes Florida, he only needs a state like Iowa, Colorado, or Indiana to go over the top.

The second option for a Republican is to win a majority of the Industrial Midwest.  Look at the riches available in this swing area:  Ohio (18), Indiana (11), Michigan (16), Illinois (20), and Wisconsin (10) add up to 75 electoral votes.  We will add three states to this list that have similarities to this group.  Pennsylvania (20), Missouri (10), and Kentucky (8), bring the total in this area to 113. 

So, if the Republican does not carry California and its 55 electoral votes, he can still win by taking half of the Midwest.  Ohio, Indiana, Kentucky, Missouri, and Wisconsin add up to 57 electoral votes, two more than California.

So, how does this apply to Mitt Romney and the race in 2012?  Plenty!  In the entire history of the Republican Party, only two candidates from New England and the Upper Atlantic have ever become President of the United States.  However, and this is big, both candidates were already President when they ran for President.  Calvin Coolidge, from Vermont, was the Vice President when Warren Harding died in office in 1923; he won in 1924.  Theodore Roosevelt, from New York, was the Vice President when William McKinley was assassinated in Buffalo at the World’s Fair in 1901; he won in 1904.

Looking at nominees that were not already President, there have been just two elections involving one GOP candidate from the New England/Upper Atlantic area.  Thomas Dewey hailed from New York.  He lost to Franklin Roosevelt in 1944 and Harry Truman in 1948. 

In 1944, FDR carried the entire South, as Southerners would not support an Eastern Elitist Republican, when the opposition was an Eastern Elitist Democrat.  In 1948, Dewey won in California, which had half the electoral votes as it does today.  He won in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Indiana.  Truman carried the entire South as well as Michigan, Illinois, Ohio, Wisconsin, and Kentucky.

Romney will have major trouble in the South.  He is looked on as an Eastern elitist, a Yankee, a carpetbagger, etc.  His numerous gaffes and flip-flops will hurt him in any swing state, but in the South, words tend to mean a lot more to voters.  Let us take a look at six of those liabilities:

1. During an Iowa debate, he stated that he could not have a lawn service that hired illegal aliens continue to work for him because he was running for President.  This infers that had he not chosen to run, he would not have had a problem.

2. He stated that he didn’t make all that much money on his speaking engagements, only between a quarter and half million dollars per speech.  A majority of Southern Republican voters believe that a quarter million dollars is “all that much.”

3. He likes firing people.  In fact, he repeated how quickly he would fire someone just because that someone came to him with a business idea.  He has not stated a love for hiring people.

4. He doesn’t worry about the poor, because there are safety nets for them.  This infers that he supports the current Welfare system, which a majority of GOP voters in the South do not support.

5. He has flip-flopped on both abortion and gun rights. 

6. He openly vowed to be as liberal as Ted Kennedy when he ran against Kennedy in a Massachusetts Senatorial race, and he ran away from the Republican philosophy of Ronald Reagan.  That is why the Reagan family has endorsed Gingrich.

Any single one of these six facts is enough to harm him greatly all over the country, especially in the crucial Southern states.

Now, concerning Romney’s other liability in the South–his Mormon religion:  People in the South may be quiet about this issue, but a great deal of Southern White Protestants will not support him, even against President Obama.  As a Southerner who is not a Protestant, I have personally witnessed 21^st Century religious bigotry.  I am not a member of the Church of Latter Day Saints, and I do not wear my religion on a sleeve.  I don’t advertise my beliefs publicly.  Yet, many Southerners do. 

I have heard enough GOP voters talk about how they cannot support a candidate that belongs to a Church that believes their savior returned to New York State and spoke to one man in the 19^th Century.  For many in the South, there is still the stigma of polygamy, even though this has not been the case for over 120 years.  While religious bigotry has no place in the 21^st Century, the 21^st Century Southern conservative voter may decide it still does.

The mechanical data does not work out for Romney.  The last Massachusetts Republican that had a chance to become President was Henry Cabot Lodge.  He even made it to the GOP ticket as a Vice Presidential running mate for Richard Nixon in 1960.

Cabot Lodge’s political ideology was similar to Romney’s.  A disciple of two of the most influential and elitist families in New England, Cabot Lodge was also a hero.  He was the only United States Senator to resign from office to join the military to fight in World War II.  Many political experts believe Cabot Lodge hurt Nixon’s chances in many states in 1960 and even cost Nixon the election.

Let’s take a look at the political map of 2012.  If Romney is the nominee, then barring a major catastrophe, like a total collapse of the Stock Market or a major war that our country appears to be losing, Obama will stand a much better than 50% chance of defeating Romney for reelection.  If the country is thrust into a Mideast war through an enemy provocation, then Obama’s chances will increase all the more.

Let’s start our mechanical look by concentrating on the South.  Obama beat John McCain by a score of 365-173.  In 2008, Obama won in North Carolina and Virginia for 28 electoral votes.  He also took the swing state of Florida and its 27 votes (Florida has 29 electoral votes in this election).  McCain needed a sweep in the South, and he could not get it.  Had he swept the South, it would have given him 228 votes, still 42 shy of what he needed.

Obama won California and its 55 votes.  McCain, from Arizona, did not offer anything to swing the biggest prize his way.  Had he won California and the three Southern States he lost, he would have won the election.

Of course, there is a second avenue for a Republican if he cannot sweep the South and take California.  He must win several states in the Midwest.  Obama won big here in 2008, and he will do well enough in 2012 to win reelection if Romney is the opponent.

Obama will win his home state of Illinois and its 20 votes.  He will win Pennsylvania and Wisconsin for another 30 votes.  Romney should win Indiana, and he should win Michigan, because the Romney name still means a lot in the Wolverine State.  However, a heavy turnout in Detroit could tilt the state’s 16 votes his way.

You would expect Romney to do well in New England, but that is not necessarily the case.  He will lose his home state of Massachusetts, and that speaks volumes.  A little known fact is that when Romney chose not to run for gubernatorial reelection, he did so because he was going to lose by a large amount.  He won in 2002 with a slim plurality of the vote, falling short of 50%.  Had Green Party candidate Jill Stein not run, then Democrat Shannon O’Brien might have won the election.  Romney’s favorable ratings as Governor were never high, and when he chose not to stand for reelection, the favorable percentage was in the 30’s.  He left office as the 48^th most popular governor after his legislation led to much higher taxes.  It is estimated that he raised taxes on many corporations by almost 100%!  He also added a heavy number of fees to run businesses, and he lost a great deal of his Republican base by 2006. 

Obama will win Massachusetts; he will also win Connecticut, Vermont, Rhode Island, New York, New Jersey, Delaware, and Maryland.  Romney cannot count on his own area for major support.  He may take New Hampshire, and he could still lose there.

Let us break down this race into safe Republican and safe Democrat states.

We are going to assume that Romney can keep the Southern states McCain won in 2008, but as you read above, this is not a sure thing.  We will give him Georgia, South Carolina, Alabama, Mississippi, Tennessee, Louisiana, Arkansas, and Texas for 103 electoral votes.

Romney will carry most of Flyover country as all GOP candidates do.  That gives him another 11 states, but only 54 more electoral votes—Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota, North Dakota, Montana, Idaho, Wyoming, Utah, Arizona, and Alaska.  That brings his total to 157 votes in these 19 states.

Kentucky, West Virginia, and Indiana will go for the Republican candidate in this race, regardless of the name of that candidate.  These three bring Romney’s total to 22 states and 181 electoral votes.  We will call this his sure thing states with the caveat that one or two of these states could go against him for the reasons described above.

Obama has fewer sure thing states, but they carry more electoral votes.  Start with the West, where he will sweep the Pacific Coast.  California, Oregon, and Washington plus the always Democrat Hawaii gives him four states and 78 electoral votes.

In the Midwest, he will carry his home state of Illinois as well as the liberal state of Minnesota.  That increases his totals to six states and 108 electoral votes.

We will not give Obama the two Southern states he won in 2008, even though he stands a good chance of taking both Virginia and North Carolina again.  So, his total stays the same.

It is in Romney’s own area where Obama will hit his opponent hard.  Give the President Washington, D.C., Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Vermont, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, and Maine.  That brings his total to 15 states plus DC and 196 electoral votes.

The remaining toss-up states are: New Hampshire (4), Pennsylvania (20), Virginia (13), North Carolina (15), Florida (29), Ohio (18), Michigan (16), Wisconsin (10), Iowa (6), Missouri (10), New Mexico (5), Colorado (9), and Nevada (6).  That adds up to 161 electoral votes.  Obama would need 74 of these electoral votes, while Romney would need 89. 

As of today, if we had to call these swing states, we would give Obama New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Virginia, North Carolina Wisconsin, Iowa, New Mexico, and Colorado.  This adds 82 electoral votes, bringing his total to 278 and securing the victory.

We will give Romney Florida, Michigan, Ohio, Missouri, and Nevada.  This adds 79 electoral votes, bringing his total to 260. 

We must admit that we gave Romney the benefit of the doubt in several states, where he is not guaranteed to win.  In fact, with his favorable numbers sinking quickly, we believe that 260 is the absolute maximum number of electoral votes he can win.  In all honesty, he could lose 30-40 of these electoral votes.

The GOP needs to hope for a brokered convention where they can appeal to Governor Daniels to become the new great compromise.  Daniels can win 300-350 electoral votes by cutting into Obama’s popularity in the Midwest, and he can sweep the South.

  8: U N L V

16: Creighton

18: Colorado State

21: Gonzaga

22: San Diego State

28: St. Mary’s

30:WichitaState

33:Long BeachState

36:MurrayState

37: Brigham Young

38:New Mexico

47: Harvard

48: MiddleTennessee

This week, we look at the upper echelon of the non-power conferences, the so-called Mid-Majors.  We list seven conferences in this group that is just below the top eight leagues.

Colonial Athletic

1 bid only

Virginia Commonwealth made it to the Final Four last year, and George Mason has been there in recent times, but this league is down in 2012.  Only the conference tournament champion will play in the NCAA Tournament.

Virginia Commonwealth (10-2/19-5 RPI 94), Drexel (10-2/18-5 RPI 82), George Mason (10-2/18-6 RPI 113), and Old Dominion (10-2/15-9 RPI 130) are tied for first, well ahead of the rest of the pack.

Drexel may be the league’s best representative this year.  The Dragons can rebound with the power conference teams.  Samme Givens, Daryl McCoy, and Dartaye Ruffin team up for about 18 boards per game, and seven players contribute in a balanced scoring load.  Drexel holds opponents under 40% from the field.

Virginia Commonwealth still plays a helter-skelter style of ball, but the Rams cannot shoot the ball well.  VCU’s field goal accuracy is barely 40%.  Leading scorer Bradford Burgess shoots just 33.6% from the field.  Coach Shaka Smart has to find a way to get Juvonte Reddic the ball more.  Reddic, who averages 10.9 points per game, connects on better than 50% of his shots.

Horizon

1 bid with very slim chance at 2

Cleveland State (8-2/18-4 RPI 58) owns a double-digit win at Vanderbilt.  However, the Vikings have fallen in the RPI rankings to a point where they would need to win out and lose in the semifinals or finals of the Horizon League in order to earn an at-large bid.

Valparaiso (9-3/16-8 RPI 110)  is close to being as good as they were during their winning years in the early 1990’s.  However, they will not make it to the Big Dance unless they earn an automatic bid.

UW-Milwaukee (7-5/14-10 RPI 137), Youngstown State (7-5/12-10 RPI 147), and Butler (7-5/13-11 RPI 125) are the best of the rest. Butler appears to be in danger of missing out on post-season play this year.

Mid-American

1 bid only (remote chance for 2)

The MAC is not what it once was.  No team in the Western Division can even sniff a double digit RPI.  In the stronger Eastern Division, there are three teams that could compete in an opening round NCAA Tournament game.

Akron (7-1/15-7 RPI 56) is on the precipice of being an at-large bubble team.  The Zips are a balanced scoring teams with five players scoring between eight and 11 points per game. Akronis not all that strong on the boards, but the Zips shoot better than 48% from the field.

Ohio U (6-2/18-4 RPI 78) has a very tough closing schedule, and the Bobcats are likely to lose as many as they win from here on out.  Poor shooting will doom them in on the road.

Buffalo (6-2/13-6 RPI 92) holds opponents well under 40% from the field, and the Bulls can compete with anybody on the boards.  Javon McCrea and Mitchell Watt team for better than 31 points per game. Buffalomight be the most competitive of the three leaders in an opening round NCAA Tournament game.

Missouri Valley

2 for sure and possible 3 bids

The Valley is fertile in 2012.  Creighton (11-1/21-2 RPI 16) and WichitaState(10-2/19-4 RPI 30) are sure things to earn at-large bids to the Big Dance if they do not win the MVC Tournament. Northern Iowa (5-7/15-9) has the talent to pull off a conference tournament upset. 

Creighton has the 21^st century version of Larry Bird leading the team.  Doug McDermott averages almost 24 points per game and more than eight rebounds per game.  He connects on better than 62% of his shots, about 52% from behind the three-point line, and 82% at the foul line. 

The Blue Jays own wins over San Diego State and Northwestern, and they won at WichitaState.

Wichita State defeated UNLV, and the Shockers are a little stronger defensively than Creighton, but a little weaker offensively.

Mountain West

3 bids with a chance for 4

Even with the defection of BYU, this league is quite strong, perhaps the strongest of this group.

Five teams are still in contention for at-large bid status.  UNLV (5-1/21-3 RPI 8) is a sure thing.  The Runnin’ Rebels can score (80+ points per game), defend (9 steals per game and +15 scoring margin), and rebound (+5.4).  Mike Moser averages a double-double (14.7/11.6).

San Diego State (5-1/19-3 RPI 22) is only marginally weaker this year than last.  The Aztecs are still talented enough to advance deep into the tournament.  Coach Steve Fisher has two legitimate stars in Chase Tarpley and Jamaal Franklin.  SDSU owns wins over Arizona, California, UNLV, and Long BeachState.

New Mexico (4-2/18-4 RPI 38) may be the best of the top three in this league.  The Lobos can slaughter a team in a matter of minutes with deadly accurate shooting and strong defense.  Coach Steve Alford has this team playing like an oldIndianateam.  UNM defeated St. Louis, Wyoming, and ColoradoState, but there is a question about their strength of schedule.

Colorado State (3-3/14-7 RPI 18) and Wyoming(3-3/17-5 RPI 91) both have enough talent to win the MWC Tournament.

West Coast Conference

3 bids (possibly 4)

If the Mountain West is not the strongest Mid-Major, then this league is.  Three teams stand to make the NCAA Tournament, and if someone else can pull off the conference tournament upset, there is a chance that four could receive invitations.

St.Mary’s (11-0/22-2 RPI 28) continues to remain among the nation’s elite thanks to Coach Randy Bennett’s ability to recruit all over the planet.  This Gael team has the talent to make it to the Final Four.  They can score from the perimeter and in the paint.  The Gaels are accurate shooters, tenacious defenders, and tough rebounders.  They have defeated Gonzaga and already swept BYU.

Gonzaga (7-2/17-4 RPI 21) has defeated Notre Dame, Oral Roberts, Arizona, and Xavier this year.  The Zags lost to BYU last night.

BYU (7-3/19-6 RPI 37) moved to within half a game of Gonzaga.  The Cougars have four double figure scorers, led by Noah Hartsock at 17.8 points per game.

Western Athletic

1 or 2 bids

Nevada (8-0/19-3 RPI 55) is on the at-large bubble.  If the Wolf Pack wins the WAC regular season title with no more than one loss, they could sneak into the Big Dance as one of the final at-large teams if they lost in the conference tournament finals. Nevada owns a win over Washington, and they lost at UNLV by just four points.

New MexicoState (5-2/16-7 RPI 89) is strong enough to win the WAC Tournament and earn an automatic bid.  The Aggies will not qualify as an at-large under any circumstance this year, even though they beat New Mexico.

This Week’s PiRate, Mean, and Biased Spreads

Computer Simulations

100 Simulations: New England 53  New York Giants 47

Avg. Sim Score: New England 21.2  New York Giants 20.9  (42.1 total points)

Vs. Spread: New York Giants 57  New England 37  (6 Pushes)

Outlier Score A: New England 34  New York Giants 12

Outlier Score B: New York Giants 27  New England 10

We here at the PiRate Ratings hope you have enjoyed our football coverage for 2011-12.  We will return in August with our preseason College Football ratings for 2012.

Until then, we will devote this page to coverage of the NCAA Basketball tournament.  We began last Friday with a look at the low-major conferences.  This Friday, we will analyze the mid-major conferences.

After the field of 68 has been revealed, we will show in detail how we use “Bracketnomics” as a scientific way of picking winners, using a backtested model.  It has been very successful since its inception, although it did strike out in 2011 after picking the dark horse champion (the Tuesday after Selection Sunday) in 2010.

In this week’s preview, we will focus on the low-major conferences.  In most years, these leagues would have no shot at sending multiple teams to the Big Dance.  However, that is not an impossible task this year.

Before we get to each of the 16 low-major conferences, let’s take a look at which low and mid-major teams appear in the top 50 in the RPI rankings (as of Friday, January 27, 2012).

There are 14 teams on the list.  Creighton, Southern Mississippi, and Gonzaga all appear in the second ten, and these teams would appear to be safe at-large teams if they do not win automatic bids.

San Diego State, Wichita State, Murray State, and St. Mary’s all have RPIs in the 20’s.  If these four teams continue to play at the same pace, they should have no trouble getting at-large bids as well.

Long Beach State, Oral Roberts, Davidson, Middle Tennessee, Harvard, Northern Iowa, and Iona have RPIs in the 40’s.  They need to improve on their resumes in order to be under consideration for at-large bids.

Here is our look at the bottom 16 conferences.

America East (definite 1-bid conference)

Stony Brook 8-1  13-7

Boston U. 7-2  11-12

Vermont 6-2  12-10

Stony Brook defeated Boston last night to take a one game lead over the Terriers.  BU had defeated Stony Brook two weeks earlier in the first contest.

Stony Brook is led by blue-collar worker Tommy Brenton.  He does all the dirty work—gets rebounds, makes great passes, and plays excellent defense.

Boston U has a big scorer in Darryl Partin, who averages 20 points per game.  D. J. Irving sets him up with crisp passes.  Irving scores 12 points per game and dishes out 5.5 assists per contest.

Atlantic Sun (definite 1-bid conference)

Belmont 7-2  14-7

Mercer 7-2  15-7

USC Upstate 7-3  13-9

Belmont defeated Mercer earlier this year, so the Bruins technically are in first place.  This Belmont team is not as good as last year’s 30-win squad, but they cannot be overlooked.  Belmont lost by one at Duke.

Seven teams are within two games of first in this league, so the conference tournament should be quite interesting. 

Big Sky (definite 1-bid conference)

Weber State 8-0  16-3

Montana 7-1  14-6

Montana St. 6-2  11-8

Weber State wins games at the free throw line.  The Wildcats lead the nation in free throw percentage at better than 80%, and they have a chance to break the all-time single season mark.  Two Wildcats, Damian Lillard and Scott Bamforth, average better than 90% from the line.  Lillard leads the Big Sky in scoring at 25 points per game.

The Wildcats have won 10 games in a row, outscoring opponents by an average of 80.1 to 62.5.

Big South (definite 1-bid conference)

UNC-Asheville 10-1  15-7

Coastal Carolina 8-2  15-5

Campbell 8-3  14-9

Charleston Southern 7-3  13-7

V M I 6-5  11-10

UNCA is a scoring machine.  The Bulldogs average 83 points per game and shoot close to 50% per game.  They have a great two-man tandem in Matt Dickey and J. P. Primm.  Both average 16 points per game and make it tough for opposing backcourts to matchup.

Coastal Carolina has a better inside game and could be the better NCAA Tournament team if they can get there.  CCU owns wins over LSU and Clemson.

Big West (possible 2-bid conference)

Long Beach St. 8-0  15-6

The 49ers have a 2 ½-game lead over Cal State Fullerton and UCSB.  LBSU defeated Pitt and Xavier and lost close games to San Diego State, Louisville, North Carolina, and Kansas.  The 49ers have three star players capable of starting in big conferences.  T. J. Robinson averages a double-double.  Casper Ware and Larry Anderson make the league’s best guard tandem.  Should LBSU win the regular season title with no or just one conference loss, the 49ers could still get into the Big Dance if they lost in the finals of the Big West Tournament.

Ivy League (possible 2-bid conference)

Harvard 3-0  17-2

Penn 2-0  10-9

Yale 2-1  12-5

Princeton 1-1  10-8

Harvard trounced Yale last night in New Haven by 30 points.  The Crimson have an RPI rating in the 40’s, and they might have a shot at an at-large bid if they finished tied for first in the Ivy at 13-1 and lost in a conference playoff. 

Penn and Princeton are always threats to run off a string of conference victories, but we believe that this is Tommy Amaker’s year in Boston.  Harvard has a win over Florida State.

M A A C (possible 2-bid conference)

Iona 8-2  16-5

Loyola (MD) 8-2  15-5

Manhattan 8-2  15-7

All three co-leaders won last night.  Iona has the best resume to date, and with an RPI in the high 40’s, the Gaels are on the cusp of at-large status.  They lead the nation in assists per game with 20, and they shoot almost 50% from the field.  They own a 26-point win over Maryland, and they lost by one to Purdue.

M E A C (definite 1-bid conference)

Norfolk State  7-0  15-6

Bethune-Cookman 6-1  9-12

Savannah St. 5-2  10-10

Norfolk State may be the best MEAC team in the last five years.  They lost by just two points to Marquette earlier this year, and at 15-6, they have a good shot at winning 20 regular season games.  The Spartans must play at Bethune-Cookman in the only meeting of the top two teams.

Kyle O’Quinn averages 16 points and 10 rebounds per game, and he shoots 59% from the field.  O’Quinn stands a great chance of winning league MVP honors.

N E C (definite 1-bid conference)

Long Island 8-1  14-7

Wagner 7-2  16-4

Robert Morris 7-2  16-6

St. Francis NY 7-2  10-10

Long Island is not as good this year as last, but the Blackbirds are still the class of the league.  LIU swept Wagner already, so the Blackbirds would have to lose twice for Wagner to have any chance to win the regular season title.

LIU still has three top notch stars.  Julian Boyd and Jamal Olasewere team for 33 points and 17 boards per game, while Jason Brickman averages six assists per game.

Wagner defeated Pittsburgh, Penn, and Princeton this year, so the Seahawks might be a better matchup for a major conference opponent in the NCAA Tournament.

Ohio Valley (possible 2-bid league)

Murray State 8-0  20-0

The Racers have moved up to number nine in the nation, the first OVC team to crack the Top 10 since Western Kentucky was a member in the early 1970’s.  The last undefeated team in the nation has a small chance of running the table in the regular season.

The Racers are winning games with excellent outside shooting, where they average 42% from behind the arc.  Isaiah Canaan is the best of those outside shooters, hitting 47% three pointers and 18.7 points per game.

Patriot League (definite 1-bid league)

Bucknell 6-0  16-6

Lehigh 4-2  16-6

Bucknell may not be strong enough to pull off an epic upset in the first round of the Big Dance, but the Bison will be a tough out in the first round.  They lost by 12 to both Minnesota and Vanderbilt and lost by 19 to Syracuse.  The Bison have won eight games in a row.

Southern (possible 2-bid league)

North

Elon 5-3  10-9

UNC-Greensboro 5-4  7-14

South

Davidson 9-0  15-4

Davidson could possibly earn an at-large bid if the Wildcats failed to earn an automatic bid.  The Wildcats won at Kansas.

Southland (definite 1-bid league)

East

Northwestern State 4-2  11-9

McNeese State 4-2  8-10

West

UT-Arlington 6-0  14-5

UT-San Antonio 5-1  13-7

UT-Arlington has won 10 games in a row after beginning the season at 4-5.  They lost to Baylor by 10 points.  UTA has excellent depth for a low-major team.

S W A C (definite 1-bid league)

Mississippi Valley State 7-0  8-11

Southern 6-2  10-11

Texas Southern 5-2  6-13

No team in this league has a winning record, so it is a strong chance the winner of the SWAC Tournament will be making a quick trip to Dayton for the play-in round.

Mississippi Valley has won seven games in a row after beginning the season 1-11.  Among the teams that beat them are Notre Dame, North Carolina, Florida, Wisconsin, Arkansas, and Ole Miss.

Summit League (possible 2-bid league)

Oral Roberts 11-0  19-4

South Dakota State 8-2  16-6

Oral Roberts has reeled off 12 straight victories and moved up to the mid 40’s in the RPI rating.  ORU owns a 22-point win over Xavier.  Two of their four losses came at the hands of Gonzaga by six and West Virginia by seven.

Sunbelt (possible 2-bid league)

East

Middle Tennessee 9-0  20-2

West

Denver 6-2  16-5

This could be Middle Tennessee’s best ever team.  The Blue Raiders have made waves in the NCAA Tournament in the past, knocking off Kentucky in 1982.

This Middle Tennessee team won by 20 points at UCLA, and if they can knock off Vanderbilt today, the Blue Raiders could move into the Top 25.  They have excellent depth and can go 10 or 11 deep.  Laron Dendy is the leader of the team.

Conference Championship Previews

This Week’s PiRate, Mean, and Biased Spreads

Computer Simulations

Sunday, January 22, 2012

3PM EST

Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots

100 Simulations: New England 63  Baltimore 37

Avg. Sim Score: New England 26.5  Baltimore 19.7  (46.2 total points)

Vs. Spread: New England 48  Baltimore 47  Push 5

Outlier Score A: New England 38  Baltimore 13

Outlier Score B: Baltimore 24  New England 12

6:30 PM EST

New York Giants @ San Francisco 49ers

100 Simulations: New York Giants 53  San Francisco 47

Avg. Sim Score: New York Giants 23.6  San Francisco 20.9 (44.5 points)

Vs. Spread: New York Giants 82  San Francisco 18

Outlier Score A: New York Giants 37  San Francisco 14

Outlier Score B: San Francisco 27  New York Giants 9

 Note: The PiRate Ratings will begin its NCAA Basketball coverage next week.

Current NFL Standings For Remaining Playoff Teams

Team                                 PiRate  Mean    Biased HFA

New York Giants                  105.2      103.8      104.2      2.0

Green Bay Packers             111.5      111.0      110.8      3.5

New Orleans Saints            113.8      111.5      106.7      5.0

San Francisco 49ers          105.9      105.9      104.9      3.5

New England Patriots        110.5      109.7      108.5      2.0

Baltimore Ravens               105.4     105.6       107.0     4.0

Houston Texans                  100.8     100.9       103.3     1.5

Denver Broncos                     95.0     94.7        98.3       1.5

100 Simulations of Each Game

New Orleans at San Francisco

Simulation Wins

New Orleans 62

San Francisco 38

Average Sim Score

New Orleans 25.6

San Francisco 22.7

Beat Spread (NO -3 ½)

New Orleans 31

San Francisco 69

Biggest Win

New Orleans 29 (42-13)

San Francisco 16 (37-21)

Denver at New England

Simulation Wins

New England 97

Denver 3

Average Sim Score

New England 30.3

Denver 11.4

Beat Spread (NE -13 ½)

New England 48

Denver 52

Biggest Win

New England 41 (51-10)

Denver 6 (20-14)

Houston at Baltimore

Simulation Wins

Baltimore 58

Houston 42

Average Sim Score

Baltimore 23.7

Houston 19.4

Beat Spread (Bal -7 ½)

Baltimore 33

Houston 67

Biggest Win

Baltimore 25 (35-10)

Houston 19 (26-7)

New York Giants at Green Bay

Simulation Wins

Green Bay 83

New York Giants 17

Average Sim Score

Green Bay 34.9

New York Giants 26.2

Beat Spread (GB -7 ½)

Green Bay 52

New York Giants 48

Biggest Win

Green Bay 23 (41-18)

New York Giants 11 (38-27)

Monday, January 09, 2012

The Louisiana Superdome

New Orleans, Louisiana

8:30 PM EST

TV: ESPN (pre-game begins at 2:00 PM EST)

L S U 13-0 vs. Alabama 11-1

Vegas Spread: Alabama by 2  Totals: 40

We simulated this game 100 times, and here are the results below:

Sim Wins: Alabama 61  L S U 39

Average Sim Score: Alabama 20.1  L S U 15.7

Alabama beat the spread: 58

LSU beat the spread: 38

Push: 4

Biggest Alabama Win in the sim: 22 points

Biggest L S U Win in the sim: 12 points

We looked at all the sims individually to find the one that most accurately represented the mean.  We found one sim where Alabama won 20-16, and here are the stats from that one sim.

The championship round of the PiRate Ratings Computer Simulated College Football Playoffs was simulated Friday morning, January 6, 2012, and the results and statistics are listed below.

For those of you new to this experiment, here is how the PiRates conduct this simulated National Championship playoff:

The champions of the ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12, and SEC received automatic bids.

Any other conference champion that finished in the top 12 of the BCS rankings also receives an automatic bid.

After these two rules were applied, at-large invitations were extended to the number of teams needed to complete a 12-team tournament, based on BCS ranking.

Our 12-team tournament gave the top four BCS-ranked teams a bye, while teams seeded 5-12 played in the opening round. 

The Dandy Dozen For This Season Were:

Automatic Bids

ACC Champion: Clemson 10-3  BCS #15

Big East Champion: West Virginia 9-3   BCS #23

Big Ten Champion: Wisconsin 11-2   BCS # 10

Big 12 Champion: Oklahoma State 11-1   BCS #3

Pac-12 Champion: Oregon 11-2   BCS #5

SEC Champion: L S U 13-0   BCS #1

Other Qualifying Conference Champions

No other conference champions finished in the BCS top 12.

At-large Bids (6)

BCS #2: Alabama 11-1

BCS #4: Stanford 11-1

BCS #6: Arkansas 10-2

BCS #7: Boise State 11-1

BCS #8: Kansas State 10-2

BCS #9: South Carolina 10-2

The Opening Round Results

Kansas State 30  South Carolina 20

Oregon 41  West Virginia 17

Wisconsin 38  Boise State 26

Clemson 50  Arkansas 44 3ot

The Elite 8 Results

L S U  44  Kansas State  16

Oregon 38  Stanford 27

Wisconsin 24  Alabama 19

Oklahoma State 44  Clemson 20

The Final Four Results

Oregon 39  L S U 34

Wisconsin 41  Oklahoma State 38

Simper Bowl Facts

The Oregon Ducks and Wisconsin Badgers actually played in this year’s Rose Bowl, and the Simper Bowl takes place in the same vicinity at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum.  This marked the second time in Simper Bowl history that the computer simulated National Championship Game featured teams that actually squared off in a bowl.

We went ahead and simulated this game 100 times after we simulated it the one time to represent the Simper Bowl.  The winner of the Simper Bowl only won 37 of the 100 simulations performed after the Simper Bowl, so we would call the winner of this game an upset.

And, the 2011-12 Simper Bowl Champions Are: THE OREGON DUCKS!

Congratulations to the Ducks, as they defeated Wisconsin 38-30 in the lone simulation prior to the 100 sims performed afterwards.  Wisconsin won 63 of the 100 simulations performed after we recorded the results of the Simper Bowl.

Here are the Simper Bowl Stats:

On Monday morning, January 9, 2012, we will reveal the results of 100 simulations of the BCS’s mythical national title game between L S U and Alabama.