The Pi-Rate Ratings

March 26, 2013

Bracketnomics 2013: Sweet 16, March 28-29, 2013

2013 NCAA Tournament— Sweet 16 Schedule For Thursday-Friday, March 28-29, 2013

All times Eastern Daylight

Thursday, March 28, 2013

Time

Network

Region

Site

High Seed

Low Seed

7:15 PM

CBS

E

Washington, D. C.

2-Miami (29-6)

3-Marquette (25-8)

7:47 PM

TBS

W

Los Angeles

2-Ohio St. (28-7)

6-Arizona (27-7)

9:45 PM

CBS

E

Washington, D. C.

1-Indiana (29-6)

4-Syracuse (28-9)

10:17 PM

TBS

W

Los Angeles

9-Wichita St. (28-8)

13-La Salle (24-9)

Friday, March 29, 2013

Time

Network

 

Site

High Seed

Low Seed

7:15 PM

CBS

MW

Indianapolis

1-Louisville (31-5)

12-Oregon (28-8)

7:37 PM

TBS

S

Arlington, TX

1-Kansas (31-5)

4-Michigan (28-7)

9:45 PM

CBS

MW

Indianapolis

2-Duke (29-5)

3-Michigan St. (27-8)

10:07 PM

TBS

S

Arlington, TX

3-Florida (28-7)

15-Florida Gulf Coast (26-10)

Third Round Record: 11-5

Tournament Total: 33-15

Teams Remaining In Bracket: 12 of 16

 

Updated PiRate Criteria Stats (See our explanation on how we select our brackets at: http://piratings.wordpress.com/2013/03/17/bracketnomics-2013-a-statistical-look-at-bracket-selection/  )

 

 

Margins

Team

Scoring

FG%

Rebound

Turnover

Steals

R+T

SOS

Rd_WL%

Arizona

10.2

4.6

6.6

0.3

6.7

8.30

57.24

72.2

Duke

13.0

6.4

-0.9

3.5

6.6

4.62

60.68

72.2

Florida

18.2

10.4

4.9

3.0

7.1

9.92

57.58

65.0

Florida Gulf Coast

6.6

5.5

1.0

1.2

9.0

4.24

47.84

55.0

Indiana

17.4

9.7

7.5

1.2

7.1

10.36

58.59

75.0

Kansas

13.7

12.2

6.5

-1.3

7.1

6.36

57.82

77.8

La Salle

6.3

-0.2

-3.4

3.0

7.8

1.76

54.68

61.1

Louisville

16.3

6.1

3.8

6.3

11.0

13.56

59.41

80.0

Marquette

5.9

5.5

4.6

-0.6

6.8

5.24

58.15

52.9

Miami (Fl)

9.6

6.2

3.4

1.0

6.3

5.86

59.56

75.0

Michigan

12.7

6.6

3.2

2.8

6.0

7.76

55.94

64.7

Michigan St.

9.4

7.1

7.6

-1.2

8.1

7.78

59.66

58.8

Ohio St.

11.4

6.1

3.1

2.9

6.8

7.94

58.57

70.6

Oregon

8.5

3.7

6.4

0.3

8.5

8.46

53.29

64.7

Syracuse

12.1

6.8

4.1

2.9

9.0

9.38

59.29

61.1

Wichita St.

8.9

4.6

7.9

0.5

7.6

10.02

53.79

68.4

 

 

Game Previews

Miami vs. Marquette

On PiRate paper, this game looks extremely close, about a 52-48% probability for Miami.  The Hurricanes enjoy marginally better criteria numbers in shooting percentage margin, turnover margin, and strength of schedule, while Marquette is a slightly better rebounding team.  The R+T criteria is virtually a wash, so we have just one criteria left to select Miami as the winner.  The Hurricanes are a better road team than Marquette.

 

This should be an exciting game to watch, as the talent matches up well.  Although the two stars will not guard each other, The Golden Eagles’ Vander Blue and the “U’s” Shane Larkin should put on great performances that will make it worthwhile to tune in.

 

Note: Marquette coach Buzz Williams is being mentioned in more than one coaching vacancy, and this could possibly affect the play of his team.

 

PiRate Pick: Miami 68  Marquette 64

 

 

Ohio State vs. Arizona

Like the first game, this one looks razor close according to our criteria ratings.  In fact, it is close to a coin-flip to determine the winner.  Of course, we would never do something like that to pick a winner.  We have a confirmed pick in this game.

 

Ohio State has a slight edge in field goal percentage margin.  Arizona has a definite rebounding margin edge, more than any other criteria in our formula.  The Buckeyes have the advantage in turnover margin, somewhere between their field goal percentage edge and ‘Zona’s edge in rebounding margin.  The steals criteria is a wash, while the all-important R+T rating edge goes to the Wildcats by less than one half possession, basically another wash.  The Scarlet and Gray enjoy a small edge in strength of schedule, while UA has an equally tiny advantage in won-loss percentage away from home.

 

So, how is it we have a clear-cut choice in this game?  Simply put, we selected a surprise Final Four team in this region, and we are sticking with them.

 

PiRate Pick:  Arizona 70  Ohio State 66

 

Indiana vs. Syracuse

Keith Smart isn’t walking through that door, and neither is Sherman Douglas.  This rematch of the 1987 national title game could be just as close if the Orangemen play like they did in the first half of the Big East Championship Game.

 

Indiana has considerable advantages in this game, but they are not strong enough to call this an easy win for the top-seeded Hoosiers.  IU has a 3% better field goal percentage margin and a 3.4 advantage in rebounding margin.  The ‘Cuse has a slight advantage in turnover margin, which closes the gap in R+T to just one extra scoring opportunity for the Hoosiers.  SU has a slim advantage in schedule strength, while Indiana has the advantage in winning percentage away from home.

 

Thanks to two NCAA Tournament wins away from Bloomington, Indiana now meets all the superior ratings in PiRate Criteria, which makes them the new favorite to go all the way to the title.  Of course, our official pick is Louisville, but as of now, the Hoosiers would be favored to win the game if it is for all the marbles.  And, these numbers could still change.  So, if you are allowed to pick anew after each round, check back to make sure Indiana is still number one in our ratings.  Louisville is just a tad behind but with a possible two games to reclaim the lead.

 

PiRate Pick: Indiana 72  Syracuse 66

 

Wichita State vs. La Salle

If you had these two teams facing off in your Sweet 16 bracket, please send us a link to your expert blog.   We could see the Shockers getting here, but in all honesty, we did not believe the Explorers would get past the First Four!

 

We believe this game will be the first blowout of the Sweet 16, and we say Wichita State will cruise to a double-digit victory.

 

The Shockers have prohibitive advantages in field goal percentage margin and rebounding margin, where La Salle’s numbers are negative for both stats.  WSU has an R+T advantage of 8.26.  Add these 8.26 additional scoring opportunities to the considerable field goal margin advantage, and it adds up to a very fun night for the Kansans.

 

PiRate Pick: Wichita State 76  La Salle 61

 

 

Louisville vs. Oregon

We love it when big conference teams from more than 1,000 miles apart meet in the second weekend of the tournament.  You never know for sure if your comparisons are valid, because there are not many comparative games between the two teams.

 

It is games like this, where we must put all of our faith in our method.  If our method is worth a grain of salt, it is this type of game that will separate it from the rest.

 

Give the field goal percentage margin advantage to Louisville by 2.4%.  Oregon wins the rebound margin criteria by 2.6, while the Cardinals have a huge advantage in turnover margin and steals (6.0 and 2.5 respectively).  UL gets the nod in R+T by 5.1, and the Cards have equally big advantages in schedule strength and road won-loss percentage.  It adds up to another rather easy win for Rick Pitino’s crew.

 

PiRate Pick: Louisville 75  Oregon 59

 

Kansas vs. Michigan

Michigan’s forte is shooting; statistically, Kansas is the toughest team in decades against the shot, holding teams below 36% from the field.  John Beilein’s teams historically have not been the best rebounding squads, but this year’s team is different; the Wolverines can bang the boards.  However, Kansas is much tougher on the glass, so the Jayhawks have the advantage here as well.  Michigan has a nice advantage in turnover margin, as KU’s margin is negative.  However, the Maize and Blue do not steal the ball very much, while KU actually has a better steals rate.  This gives the lads from Lawrence an R+T deficit of just 1.4, which equates to 1.4 extra scoring opportunities for Michigan.  KU’s stellar field goal percentage margin will overcome that extra opportunity and a half, and the Jayhawks will survive and advance.

 

PiRate Pick: Kansas 69  Michigan 64

 

Duke vs. Michigan State

Here is one of those games where we love the contrast in styles.  Duke is all finesse this year, while MSU is mostly muscle.  We liken this to the 1960’s American Football League, where the Kansas City Chiefs were the finesse team, and the Oakland Raiders were the muscle team (don’t tell that to opponents that faced Buck Buchanan, Bobby Bell, and “The Hammer.”)

 

Duke is a better shooting team, but Michigan State is better defending the shot.  The Spartans will dominate on the glass, as Duke has been outrebounded this year, while Coach Tom Izzo’s squad has remained a dynasty in this department.  Coach K will counter with a halfcourt pressure defense that forces MSU to turn the ball over, something they are prone to do against ball-hawking teams.

 

In the end, we believe the Spartans will hold onto the ball in the final eight minutes, while Duke will never gain an upper hand on the boards.  It adds up to another Elite 8 run for Izzo and his Spartans.

 

PiRate Pick: Michigan State 66  Duke 60

 

 

Florida vs. Florida Gulf Coast

You know we want to come up with some rational reason why FGCU can do it again, like they are the George Mason, Butler, or VCU of 2013.  We’d love to say that, and this team has not won their first two games by 10 points both times by some form of hocus-pocus.

 

Florida is not Georgetown.  The Gators will have answers for Eagles’ quick-pace.  In fact, except for steals, Florida holds tremendous advantages in every other criteria.  Coach Billy Donovan’s orange and blue are not the equal of the teams that raised banners in Gainesville.  This team isn’t as good as the one that almost won the title before losing to Michigan State.  It is about as good as the Final Four team coached by Lon Kruger, which is good enough to win one more time before meeting its match.

 

PiRate Pick: Florida 82  Florida Gulf Coast 68

 

Check back early Saturday morning for our Elite 8 Preview

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