NFC EAST PREVIEW
Today marks the beginning of the PiRate Ratings’ NFL coverage. With this preview, I will reveal the PiRate Ratings for each of the four teams in the NFC East Division. Following those ratings are the Mean Ratings for the quartet. If that were not enough, I also include my own biased opinion (last year’s final PiRate Rating combined with how much stronger or weaker I personally think each team is compared to last season). That will give you three different ratings for the teams.
When all three ratings predict the same side to win a game against the spread, then that is a playable line. If all three ratings agree on the winner of the game, and the Las Vegas Line is single digits, then that becomes a playable game on the Moneyline. The reason for not playing any double digit spreads is that the Moneyline odds would be too prohibitive for a double digit favorite, where just one loss could result in a losing season. During the season, I will also supply a list of games to be played with an imaginary bank account.
I hope you enjoy the following information. The predicted records are not tied to the PiRate or Mean Ratings; they are strictly from my biased ratings.
The NFC East is the toughest division in the conference and possibly the strongest overall at the start of the 2008 season. Last season, all four teams finished at .500 or better, and it would not surprise me if it happened again this year. The NFC East drew the AFC North for interconference play this year, and I expect them to collectively win at least 10 of those 16 games.
| Dallas Cowboys | ||
| PiRate | 110.3 | |
| Mean | 105.3 | |
| Biased | 105.8 | |
| Run Offense | B+ | |
| Pass Offense | A- | |
| Run Defense | A- | |
| Pass Defense | A | |
| Special Teams | A+ | |
| Predicted Record | 12-4 |
The pieces are in place for the Cowboys to make a serious Super Bowl run, but they are by no means infallible. Tony Romo hasn’t been a superstar but for one season, and he could regress to the mean. The receiving contingent could be a little suspect. Terrell Owens is in his mid-30’s, and you can expect him to slow down a bit. Tight end Jason Witten is as good as you can get at that position, but the remainder of the receiving game is somewhat iffy.
The Dallas running game is in good shape thanks to a powerful offensive line that blocks better for the run than the pass. The Cowboys can run to the right behind a wall of muscle in center Andre Gurode, right guard Leonard Davis, and right tackle Marc Columbo.
Defensively, expect the Cowboys to be slightly better in 2008 than they were in 2007, and they weren’t exactly weak on the stop side last year. Greg Ellis and Zach Thomas will contain outside runs and provide both a strong pass rush and good pass coverage depending on the defensive call. The inside linebacking duo of DeMarcus Ware and Bradie James are equally strong. Dallas may be a little vulnerable in the secondary, and a better pass rush could hide that weakness.
Special teams just improved exponentially with the reinstatement of Pacman Jones. If he can stay out of trouble, and he can shake off the cobwebs after missing all of 2007, he could be the straw that stirs the blue star drink. If he can contribute a touchdown or two or just set up a couple extra ones with long returns, that could be the missing ingredient. Dallas is the favorite to emerge as the NFC Champion.
| New York Giants | ||
| PiRate | 101.2 | |
| Mean | 103.1 | |
| Biased | 104.3 | |
| Run Offense | B+ | |
| Pass Offense | B | |
| Run Defense | A- | |
| Pass Defense | A- | |
| Special Teams | C | |
| Predicted Record | 9-7 |
The Giants’ Super Bowl run was no fluke last year. They almost knocked off New England in the regular season, and they not only upset the Patriots in the big game, they shut down an offense previously thought to be unstoppable.
Teams will be gunning for the defending World Champions in 2008. Tom Coughlin, once thought to be the early 2007 favorite for unemployment, put together a great defense that gelled in the latter portion of the schedule, and that defense should prevent much slippage when New York faces those fired up teams. It all starts with pass defense, and the Giants can put a lot of pressure on enemy quarterbacks. Their 53 sacks were number one in the NFL last year, and a nice majority of them came in the latter half of the season. If teams aren’t able to adjust to all the blitz packages, the Giants could top 60 sacks in 2008.
Teams will try to burn the Giants by running plays that exploit overaggressive defenses. The Giants will give up some rushing yards and probably finish in the bottom half in that statistic, but in the 21st Century, the run usually can only complement the pass and not carry the load. However, teams like Minnesota might be able to dominate them.
Offensively, Eli Manning is going to be better in 2008 than he was in 2007, and that spells trouble for enemy pass defenses. With an extra year of working with coordinator Kevin Gilbride, I expect Manning to post a passer efficiency rating above 85 this year (73.9 in ’07). Plaxico Burress and Amani Toomer aren’t the best receivers in the league, but when you combine them with tight end Kevin Boss and backs Derrick Ward and Brandon Jacobs, the Giants have no weaknesses when the receivers run their routes.
The running game was supposed to take a step back after losing Tiki Barber last year, but the Giants merely led the conference in rushing. Unlike most other teams, New York did it last year with a three-headed monster. Jacobs topped 1000 yards, while Ward rushed for 602 yards. Ahmad Bradshaw contributed 190 yards on an 8.3 yard per carry average.
Special teams are anything but special. Last year, punter Jeff Feagles and kicker Lawrence Tynes had off years, while the return game was pedestrian. Teams exploited the Giants’ kickoff coverage as well. Look for some improvement here this season.
The 2008 version should be better than the 2007 Super Bowl Champion team, but the record could go south by a game as teams will be pumped when they play the Giants. This is still a playoff caliber team.
| Philadelphia Eagles | ||
| PiRate | 106.6 | |
| Mean | 104.3 | |
| Biased | 104.8 | |
| Run Offense | A- | |
| Pass Offense | B | |
| Run Defense | A- | |
| Pass Defense | B+ | |
| Special Teams | B | |
| Predicted Record | 10-6 | |
2007 was an aberration in the city of brotherly love. Coach Andy Reid should have the Eagles back in the playoffs this year, and if the ball bounces their way enough times, Philly could make a run at Dallas for the division title.
Donovan McNabb had an excellent comeback year after suffering an ACL injury. Look for him to continue to return to the form that led the Eagles to 12 and 13-win seasons in 2003 and 2004. If he only had receivers on par with Dallas and New York, McNabb might post numbers similar to Romo. When your top receiver is running back Brian Westbrook, it’s not a good sign.
Westbrook is an expert at making defenders miss, but the Eagles would be a better team if he touched the ball more as a running threat and less as a passing threat. Sure, several of his receptions were little more than sweeps where he took the ball from in front of the quarterback rather than in the backfield, but many of those receptions were due to the lack of an open receiver downfield.
Defensively, the Eagles are going to be more consistent this season. They held teams under 17 points in half of their games, so they have the potential to be a top-notch defense. I expect them to produce more efforts like they did when they held Dallas to six points rather than the effort when they gave up 38 points in the other game against the Cowboys.
Teams will not find the going easy when they try to run on the Eagles. Mike Patterson and Brodrick Bunkley form a dynamic duo in the trenches, while Juqua Parker and Trent Cole will limit outside runs. On passing downs, new pass rushing specialist Chris Clemons should be an improvement over departed end Jevon Kearse.
The second line of defense loses Takeo Spikes, but the Eagles are still quite solid here. Stewart Bradley takes over in the middle, and his contribution should be a tell-tale sign for the entire defense. If he proves to live up to his potential, it could propel Philadelphia over the top. If he flops, then the Eagles could be hard-pressed to win more than they lose in 2008. I expect more of the former than the latter.
The secondary is the weak spot of the defense, but it should be much better than last season. The reason for the improvement starts with new cornerback Asante Samuel. Samuel has a knack for getting to the ball before the intended receiver. He picked off six passes for New England last year after robbing enemy QBs 10 times in 2006.
If rookie DeSean Jackson can provide a spark in the return game, the Eagles are going to gain an advantage every time the ball is turned over.
In 2006, Andy Reid’s Eagles suffered a losing season, and they rebounded with a 10-win season. The schedule is much easier this year compared to last year, and I expect Philadelphia to improve by at least two and possibly as many as four games on last year’s 8-8 record.
| Washington Redskins | ||
| PiRate | 104.4 | |
| Mean | 101.6 | |
| Biased | 100.6 | |
| Run Offense | B | |
| Pass Offense | B | |
| Run Defense | A- | |
| Pass Defense | B+ | |
| Special Teams | B | |
| Predicted Record | 8-8 | |
In any other division, the Redskins might be strong competitors for a wildcard berth this year. The loss of Joe Gibbs as coach should cause the team to regress by a game and miss out on the postseason, but the ‘Skins won’t be a pushover under new coach Jim Zorn.
Jason Campbell is an average quarterback in a division dominated by really good quarterbacks. Backup Todd Collins may be a better fit in the new West Coast offense, as Campbell is more of a vertical passer in the mold of Dan Marino and Daryle Lamonica.
Washington won’t scare opponents with their receiving contingent, but I think this unit is a bit underrated. Antwaan Randle El has the potential to be one of the best deep threats in the league, while Santana Moss and tight end Chris Cooley should thrive in the short passing game if Campbell can learn to take something off his bullet passes.
The running attack is in fine hands and legs as long as Clinton Portis stays healthy. Portis rarely goes down on the first hit, but he carried the load a bit too much last year. He is vulnerable to a regression this season.
The offense will sink or swim based on how well the recuperating offensive line performs. Numerous injuries doomed the Redskins last year, and the healthy return of guard Randy Thomas and tackle Jon Jansen is mandatory for the Redskins to make a run for a playoff spot.
The Washington defense is a bit suspect. A lack of a top-notch pass rusher could spell trouble in this division. Give Romo, Manning, and McNabb enough time, and they will pick apart strong defenses; that’s a problem, because the Redskins’ defense is not strong.
Teams will not have a field day running on Washington, but it’s the passing game that does most of the damage these days. Defensive end Andre Carter is the lone legitimate pass rusher, and as the 2007 season progressed, opponents adjusted to reduce his effectiveness. No other defender stepped in to exploit that adjustment, and you can expect more of the same this year.
The secondary will be forced to defend a lot of territory for a longer than average time. This is not a stellar secondary, so expect the Redskins to give up 3,600 to 4,000 passing yards this year.
Special teams are nothing to shout about. The Redskins allowed teams to begin possessions past the 30 yard line too many times last year, while they did virtually no damage when they returned kicks and punts. Special teams cost them in the kicking game too.
Washington has enough talent to beat most of their scheduled opponents outside of the division, but they could easily finish 2-6 or even 1-7 against their divisional rivals.
